Articles | Volume 21, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1297-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1297-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
26 Apr 2021
Review article |
| 26 Apr 2021
Review article: Observations for high-impact weather and their use in verification
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach am Main, 63067, Germany
Arpae Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, 40122, Italy
Elizabeth Ebert
Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, Victoria, 3008, Australia
Raghavendra Ashrit
National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Noida,
201307, India
Barbara Casati
MRD/ECCC, Dorval (QC), H9P 1J3, Canada
Jing Chen
Center of Numerical Weather Prediction, CMA, Beijing, 100081, China
Caio A. S. Coelho
Centre for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies, National Institute
for Space Research, Cachoeira Paulista, 12630-000, Brazil
Manfred Dorninger
Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna, Vienna, 1090, Austria
Eric Gilleland
Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric
Research, Boulder, 80301, Colorado, USA
Thomas Haiden
ECMWF, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK
Stephanie Landman
South African Weather Service, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa
Marion Mittermaier
MetOffice, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Related authors
Michele Salmi, Chiara Marsigli, and Manfred Dorninger
Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 29–38, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-29-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-29-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
High resolution, probabilistic weather prediction systems are increasingly able to model lightning activity with unprecedented accuracy. Is the probabilistic approach skillful when applied to localized, deep convection? This work shows that the ensemble prediction system maintained by the German Weather Service is able to provide a useful forecast of lightning activity at a scale of around 200 km and that the probabilistic approach can anticipate possible lack of accuracy in both time and space.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Thomas Gastaldo, Virginia Poli, Chiara Marsigli, Pier Paolo Alberoni, and Tiziana Paccagnella
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 747–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-747-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-747-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Accuracy of numerical weather prediction forecasts is strongly related to the quality of initial conditions employed. To improve them, it seems advantageous to use radar reflectivity observations because of their high spatial and temporal resolution. This is tested in a high-resolution model whose domain covers Italy. Results show that the employment of reflectivity observations improves precipitation forecast accuracy, but the positive impact is lost after a few hours of forecast.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lidia Bressan, Andrea Valentini, Tiziana Paccagnella, Andrea Montani, Chiara Marsigli, and Maria Stefania Tesini
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 77–84, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-77-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-77-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the sensitivity of an oceanic model of the Adriatic Sea to the horizontal resolution and to the meteorological forcing. The model is run with two different configurations and with two horizontal grids at 1 and 2 km resolution. To study the influence of the meteorological forcing, the two storms have been reproduced by running ROMS in ensemble mode. Possible optimizations of the model set-up are deduced by the comparison of the different run outputs.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
R. Ferretti, E. Pichelli, S. Gentile, I. Maiello, D. Cimini, S. Davolio, M. M. Miglietta, G. Panegrossi, L. Baldini, F. Pasi, F. S. Marzano, A. Zinzi, S. Mariani, M. Casaioli, G. Bartolini, N. Loglisci, A. Montani, C. Marsigli, A. Manzato, A. Pucillo, M. E. Ferrario, V. Colaiuda, and R. Rotunno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1953–1977, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1953-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1953-2014, 2014
C. Marsigli, A. Montani, and T. Paccagnella
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 393–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-393-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-393-2014, 2014
S. Davolio, M. M. Miglietta, T. Diomede, C. Marsigli, and A. Montani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2107–2120, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2107-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2107-2013, 2013
Mike Bush, Ian Boutle, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Charmaine Franklin, Kirsty Hanley, Aravindakshan Jayakumar, Huw Lewis, Adrian Lock, Marion Mittermaier, Saji Mohandas, Rachel North, Aurore Porson, Belinda Roux, Stuart Webster, and Mark Weeks
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 1713–1734, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1713-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1713-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Building on the baseline of RAL1, the RAL2 science configuration is used for regional modelling around the UM partnership and in operations at the Met Office. RAL2 has been tested in different parts of the world including Australia, India and the UK. RAL2 increases medium and low cloud amounts in the mid-latitudes compared to RAL1, leading to improved cloud forecasts and a reduced diurnal cycle of screen temperature. There is also a reduction in the frequency of heavier precipitation rates.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Michele Salmi, Chiara Marsigli, and Manfred Dorninger
Adv. Sci. Res., 19, 29–38, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-29-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-19-29-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
High resolution, probabilistic weather prediction systems are increasingly able to model lightning activity with unprecedented accuracy. Is the probabilistic approach skillful when applied to localized, deep convection? This work shows that the ensemble prediction system maintained by the German Weather Service is able to provide a useful forecast of lightning activity at a scale of around 200 km and that the probabilistic approach can anticipate possible lack of accuracy in both time and space.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marion Mittermaier, Rachel North, Jan Maksymczuk, Christine Pequignet, and David Ford
Ocean Sci., 17, 1527–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1527-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1527-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Regions of enhanced chlorophyll-a concentrations can be identified by applying a threshold to the concentration value to a forecast and observed field (or analysis). These regions can then be treated and analysed as features using diagnostic techniques to consider of the evolution of the chlorophyll-a blooms in space and time. This allows us to understand whether the biogeochemistry in the model has any skill in predicting these blooms, their location, intensity, onset, duration and demise.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Manuela I. Brunner, Eric Gilleland, and Andrew W. Wood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-621-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Compound hot and dry events can lead to severe impacts whose severity may depend on their timescale and spatial extent. Here, we show that the spatial extent and timescale of compound hot–dry events are strongly related, spatial compound event extents are largest at
sub-seasonal timescales, and short events are driven more by high temperatures, while longer events are more driven by low precipitation. Future climate impact studies should therefore be performed at different timescales.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lesetja E. Lekoloane, Mary-Jane M. Bopape, Tshifhiwa Gift Rambuwani, Thando Ndarana, Stephanie Landman, Puseletso Mofokeng, Morne Gijben, and Ngwako Mohale
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 373–393, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-373-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-373-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed a tornadic supercell that tracked through the northern Highveld region of South Africa for 7 h. We found that atmospheric conditions were conducive for tornado-associated severe storms over the region. A 4.4 km resolution model run by the South African Weather Service was able to predict this supercell, including its timing. However, it underestimated its severity due to underestimations of other important factors necessary for real-world development of these kinds of storms.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Eric Gilleland
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 7, 13–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-7-13-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-7-13-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Verifying high-resolution weather forecasts has become increasingly complicated,
and simple, easy-to-understand summary measures are a good alternative. Recent work has demonstrated some common pitfalls with many such summaries. Here, new summary measures are introduced that do not suffer from these drawbacks, while still providing meaningful information.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Manuela I. Brunner and Eric Gilleland
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3967–3982, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3967-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3967-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Stochastically generated streamflow time series are used for various water management and hazard estimation applications. They provide realizations of plausible but yet unobserved streamflow time series with the same characteristics as the observed data. We propose a stochastic simulation approach in the frequency domain instead of the time domain. Our evaluation results suggest that the flexible, continuous simulation approach is valuable for a diverse range of water management applications.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Joshua North, Zofia Stanley, William Kleiber, Wiebke Deierling, Eric Gilleland, and Matthias Steiner
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 79–90, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-79-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-79-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Very short-term forecasting, called nowcasting, is used to monitor storms that pose a significant threat to people and infrastructure. These threats could include lightning strikes, hail, heavy precipitation, strong winds, and possible tornados. This paper proposes a fast approach to nowcasting lightning threats using simple statistical methods. The proposed model results in fast nowcasts that are more accurate than a competitive, computationally expensive, approach.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ric Crocker, Jan Maksymczuk, Marion Mittermaier, Marina Tonani, and Christine Pequignet
Ocean Sci., 16, 831–845, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-831-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-831-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We assessed the potential benefit of a new verification metric, developed by the atmospheric community, to assess high-resolution ocean models against coarser-resolution configurations. Typical verification metrics often do not show any benefit when high-resolution models are compared to lower-resolution configurations. The new metric showed improvements in higher-resolution models away from the grid scale. The technique can be applied to both deterministic and ensemble forecasts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Mike Bush, Tom Allen, Caroline Bain, Ian Boutle, John Edwards, Anke Finnenkoetter, Charmaine Franklin, Kirsty Hanley, Humphrey Lean, Adrian Lock, James Manners, Marion Mittermaier, Cyril Morcrette, Rachel North, Jon Petch, Chris Short, Simon Vosper, David Walters, Stuart Webster, Mark Weeks, Jonathan Wilkinson, Nigel Wood, and Mohamed Zerroukat
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1999–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1999-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1999-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we define the first Regional Atmosphere and Land (RAL) science configuration for kilometre-scale modelling using the Unified Model (UM) as the basis for the atmosphere and the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) for the land. RAL1 defines the science configuration of the dynamics and physics schemes of the atmosphere and land. This configuration will provide a model baseline for any future weather or climate model developments to be described against.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Angela Cheng, Barbara Casati, Adrienne Tivy, Tom Zagon, Jean-François Lemieux, and L. Bruno Tremblay
The Cryosphere, 14, 1289–1310, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1289-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1289-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice charts by the Canadian Ice Service (CIS) contain visually estimated ice concentration produced by analysts. The accuracy of manually derived ice concentrations is not well understood. The subsequent uncertainty of ice charts results in downstream uncertainties for ice charts users, such as models and climatology studies, and when used as a verification source for automated sea ice classifiers. This study quantifies the level of accuracy and inter-analyst agreement for ice charts by CIS.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Kathryn M. Emmerson, Jeremy D. Silver, Edward Newbigin, Edwin R. Lampugnani, Cenk Suphioglu, Alan Wain, and Elizabeth Ebert
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2195–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2195-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2195-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present the first representation of grass pollen in a 3-D dispersion model in Australia, tested using observations from eight counting sites in Victoria. The technology was developed in response to the severe thunderstorm asthma event which took place in Melbourne in November 2016. A total of 10 pollen emission methodologies were developed and evaluated. The best results were obtained using statistical methods that included elements of the satellite derived enhanced vegetation index.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Thomas Gastaldo, Virginia Poli, Chiara Marsigli, Pier Paolo Alberoni, and Tiziana Paccagnella
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 25, 747–764, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-747-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-25-747-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Accuracy of numerical weather prediction forecasts is strongly related to the quality of initial conditions employed. To improve them, it seems advantageous to use radar reflectivity observations because of their high spatial and temporal resolution. This is tested in a high-resolution model whose domain covers Italy. Results show that the employment of reflectivity observations improves precipitation forecast accuracy, but the positive impact is lost after a few hours of forecast.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Lidia Bressan, Andrea Valentini, Tiziana Paccagnella, Andrea Montani, Chiara Marsigli, and Maria Stefania Tesini
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 77–84, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-77-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-77-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the sensitivity of an oceanic model of the Adriatic Sea to the horizontal resolution and to the meteorological forcing. The model is run with two different configurations and with two horizontal grids at 1 and 2 km resolution. To study the influence of the meteorological forcing, the two storms have been reproduced by running ROMS in ensemble mode. Possible optimizations of the model set-up are deduced by the comparison of the different run outputs.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
David Walters, Ian Boutle, Malcolm Brooks, Thomas Melvin, Rachel Stratton, Simon Vosper, Helen Wells, Keith Williams, Nigel Wood, Thomas Allen, Andrew Bushell, Dan Copsey, Paul Earnshaw, John Edwards, Markus Gross, Steven Hardiman, Chris Harris, Julian Heming, Nicholas Klingaman, Richard Levine, James Manners, Gill Martin, Sean Milton, Marion Mittermaier, Cyril Morcrette, Thomas Riddick, Malcolm Roberts, Claudio Sanchez, Paul Selwood, Alison Stirling, Chris Smith, Dan Suri, Warren Tennant, Pier Luigi Vidale, Jonathan Wilkinson, Martin Willett, Steve Woolnough, and Prince Xavier
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1487–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1487-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global Atmosphere (GA) configurations of the Unified Model (UM) and Global Land (GL) configurations of JULES are developed for use in any global atmospheric modelling application.
We describe a recent iteration of these configurations: GA6/GL6. This includes ENDGame: a new dynamical core designed to improve the model's accuracy, stability and scalability. GA6 is now operational in a variety of Met Office and UM collaborators applications and hence its documentation is important.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
We describe a recent iteration of these configurations: GA6/GL6. This includes ENDGame: a new dynamical core designed to improve the model's accuracy, stability and scalability. GA6 is now operational in a variety of Met Office and UM collaborators applications and hence its documentation is important.
Eric Gilleland, Melissa Bukovsky, Christopher L. Williams, Seth McGinnis, Caspar M. Ammann, Barbara G. Brown, and Linda O. Mearns
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 2, 137–153, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-137-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-137-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Several climate models are evaluated under current climate conditions to determine how well they are able to capture frequencies of severe-storm environments (conditions conducive for the formation of hail storms, tornadoes, etc.). They are found to underpredict the spatial extent of high-frequency areas (such as tornado alley), as well as underpredict the frequencies in the areas.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Marc Olefs, Dietmar J. Baumgartner, Friedrich Obleitner, Christoph Bichler, Ulrich Foelsche, Helga Pietsch, Harald E. Rieder, Philipp Weihs, Florian Geyer, Thomas Haiden, and Wolfgang Schöner
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 1513–1531, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1513-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-1513-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present the Austrian RADiation monitoring network (ARAD) that has been established to advance national climate monitoring and to support satellite retrieval, atmospheric modeling and solar energy techniques' development. Measurements cover the downwelling solar and thermal infrared radiation using instruments according to Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) standards. The paper outlines the aims and scopes of ARAD, its measurement and calibration standards, methods and strategies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
S. Rémy, A. Benedetti, A. Bozzo, T. Haiden, L. Jones, M. Razinger, J. Flemming, R. J. Engelen, V. H. Peuch, and J. N. Thepaut
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 12909–12933, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12909-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12909-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we report on the feedbacks between dust and boundary layer meteorology during a dust storm over Egypt and Libya in April 2012, using an atmospheric composition forecasting system. Dust was found to act on atmospheric stability, leading to an increase (night) or a decrease (day) in dust production. Horizontal gradients of temperature were modified by the radiative impact of the dust layer, leading to changes in wind patterns at the edge of the storm due to the thermal wind effect.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
R. Ferretti, E. Pichelli, S. Gentile, I. Maiello, D. Cimini, S. Davolio, M. M. Miglietta, G. Panegrossi, L. Baldini, F. Pasi, F. S. Marzano, A. Zinzi, S. Mariani, M. Casaioli, G. Bartolini, N. Loglisci, A. Montani, C. Marsigli, A. Manzato, A. Pucillo, M. E. Ferrario, V. Colaiuda, and R. Rotunno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1953–1977, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1953-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1953-2014, 2014
C. Marsigli, A. Montani, and T. Paccagnella
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 393–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-393-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-393-2014, 2014
S. Davolio, M. M. Miglietta, T. Diomede, C. Marsigli, and A. Montani
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2107–2120, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2107-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2107-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Variations of extreme precipitation events with sub-daily data: a case study in the Ganjiang River basin
Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France
Improving the predictability of the Qendresa Medicane by the assimilation of conventional and atmospheric motion vector observations. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast
Investigation of an extreme rainfall event during 8–12 December 2018 over central Vietnam – Part 1: Analysis and cloud-resolving simulation
Increased spatial extent and likelihood of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China, 1961–2014
Validating a tailored drought risk assessment methodology: drought risk assessment in local Papua New Guinea regions
Seasonal fire danger forecasts for supporting fire prevention management in an eastern Mediterranean environment: the case of Attica, Greece
Uncovering the veil of night light changes in times of catastrophe
Time of emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence properties
Skillful decadal prediction of German Bight storm activity
Droughts in Germany: performance of regional climate models in reproducing observed characteristics
Analysis of the relationship between yield in cereals and remotely sensed fAPAR in the framework of monitoring drought impacts in Europe
Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area
Using high-resolution global climate models from the PRIMAVERA project to create a European winter windstorm event set
Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks
Real-time urban rainstorm and waterlogging disaster detection by Weibo users
Sensitivity of simulating Typhoon Haiyan (2013) using WRF: the role of cumulus convection, surface flux parameterizations, spectral nudging, and initial and boundary conditions
The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?
A satellite lightning observation operator for storm-scale numerical weather prediction
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
Effect of extreme El Niño events on the precipitations of Ecuador
Heat waves monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends
Development and validation using ground truth of a method to identify potential release areas of snow avalanches based on watershed delineation
Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: a collective need for unifying drought risk management
Idealized simulations of Mei-yu rainfall in Taiwan under uniform southwesterly flow using a cloud-resolving model
Hotspots for warm and dry summers in Romania
Development of a forecast-oriented kilometre-resolution ocean–atmosphere coupled system for western Europe and sensitivity study for a severe weather situation
Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspective
Hydrometeorological analysis of the 12 and 13 September 2019 widespread flash flooding in eastern Spain
Monitoring the daily evolution and extent of snow drought
Characteristics of precipitation extremes over the Nordic region: added value of convection-permitting modeling
Adaptation and application of the large LAERTES-EU regional climate model ensemble for modeling hydrological extremes: a pilot study for the Rhine basin
Invited perspectives: how does climate change affect the risk of natural hazards? Challenges and step changes from the reinsurance perspective
Nowcasting thunderstorm hazards using machine learning: the impact of data sources on performance
Spatio-temporal evolution of wet–dry event features and their transition across the Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB) in South Asia
Precipitation stable isotopic signatures of tropical cyclones in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines, show significant negative isotopic excursions
Evaluation of Mei-yu heavy-rainfall quantitative precipitation forecasts in Taiwan by a cloud-resolving model for three seasons of 2012–2014
Modelling the volcanic ash plume from Eyjafjallajökull eruption (May 2010) over Europe: evaluation of the benefit of source term improvements and of the assimilation of aerosol measurements
Applying machine learning for drought prediction in a perfect model framework using data from a large ensemble of climate simulations
Using high-resolution regional climate models to estimate return levels of daily extreme precipitation over Bavaria
Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms
An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions
A climatology of sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation in Switzerland and its links to extreme discharge
Impact of large wildfires on PM10 levels and human mortality in Portugal
Investigating 3D and 4D variational rapid-update-cycling assimilation of weather radar reflectivity for a heavy rain event in central Italy
Variability in lightning hazard over Indian region with respect to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases
Social sensing of high-impact rainfall events worldwide: a benchmark comparison against manually curated impact observations
Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018
Invited perspectives: The ECMWF strategy 2021–2030 challenges in the area of natural hazards
Implementation of WRF-Hydro at two drainage basins in the region of Attica, Greece, for operational flood forecasting
Guangxu Liu, Aicun Xiang, Zhiwei Wan, Yang Zhou, Jie Wu, Yuandong Wang, and Sichen Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on investigating the thresholds of extreme precipitation using sub-daily records in the Ganjiang River basin using gamma distribution, the L-moment method and the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. The main findings are (1) run 3 (36 h) precipitation events would be key events for flood monitoring. (2）The intensity and the occasional probability of extreme precipitation will increase in spring in the future in stations like Yifeng, Zhangshu and Ningdu.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Diego S. Carrió
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 847–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate prediction of medicanes still remains a key challenge in the scientific community because of their poor predictability. In this study we assimilate different observations to improve the trajectory and intensity forecasts of the Qendresa Medicane. Results show the importance of using data assimilation techniques to improve the estimate of the atmospheric flow in the upper-level atmosphere, which has been shown to be key to improve the prediction of Qendresa.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Chung-Chieh Wang and Duc Van Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 771–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A record-breaking rainfall event over central Vietnam is investigated. Key factors include the combined effect of northeasterly wind, easterly wind blowing to central Vietnam from the western North Pacific (WNP), southeasterly wind, local topography, and high sea surface temperature (SST) over WNP and the South China Sea (SCS). The cloud-resolving storm simulator (CReSS) is applied to simulate this event. The results show that the model mostly captured the quantitative rainfall of this event.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Yi Yang, Douglas Maraun, Albert Ossó, and Jianping Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 693–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study quantifies the spatiotemporal variation and characteristics of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China over the 1961–2014 period. The results show that over the past few decades, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of these compound events across most parts of China, which is dominated by rising temperatures. We detect a strong increase in the spatially contiguous areas experiencing concurrent dry and hot conditions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Isabella Aitkenhead, Yuriy Kuleshov, Jessica Bhardwaj, Zhi-Weng Chua, Chayn Sun, and Suelynn Choy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 553–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-553-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A case study assessing drought risk in Papua New Guinea (PNG) provinces for retrospective years (2014–2020) was conducted to demonstrate the development and validate the application of a tailored and semi-dynamic drought risk assessment methodology. Hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indicators appropriate for monitoring drought in PNG provinces were selected. The risk assessment accurately indicated a strong drought event in 2015–2016 and a moderate event in 2019.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anna Karali, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Christos Giannakopoulos, Panagiotis P. Nastos, and Maria Hatzaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 429–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As climate change leads to more frequent and severe fires, forecasting fire danger before fire season begins can support fire management. This study aims to provide high-resolution probabilistic seasonal fire danger forecasts in a Mediterranean environment and assess their ability to capture years with increased fire activity. Results indicate that forecasts are skillful in predicting above-normal fire danger conditions and can be exploited by regional authorities in fire prevention management.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Vincent Schippers and Wouter Botzen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 179–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Researchers studying economic impacts of natural disasters increasingly use night light as a proxy for local economic activity, when socioeconomic data are unavailable. But often it is unclear what changes in light intensity represent in the context of disasters. We study this in detail for Hurricane Katrina and find a strong correlation with building damage and changes in population and employment. We conclude that night light data are useful to study local impacts of natural disasters.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Bastien François and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events (CEs) result from a combination of several climate phenomena. In this study, we propose a new methodology to assess the time of emergence of CE probabilities and to quantify the contribution of marginal and dependence properties of climate phenomena to the overall CE probability changes. By applying our methodology to two case studies, we show the importance of considering changes in both marginal and dependence properties for future risk assessments related to CEs.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Patrick Pieper, Ralf Weisse, and Johanna Baehr
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3993–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of storm activity are desirable for coastal management. We investigate how well a climate model can predict storm activity in the German Bight 1–10 years in advance. We let the model predict the past, compare these predictions to observations, and analyze whether the model is doing better than simple statistical predictions. We find that the model generally shows good skill for extreme periods, but the prediction timeframes with good skill depend on the type of prediction.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3875–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on drought reproduction in Germany between 1980–2009 is investigated here. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Gridded observational data sets serve as reference. Regarding the reproduction of drought characteristics, all models perform on a similar level, while for trends, only the modified model produces reliable outputs.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Carmelo Cammalleri, Niall McCormick, and Andrea Toreti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3737–3750, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3737-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the ability of vegetation indices derived from satellite data to capture annual yield variations across Europe. The strength of the relationship varies throughout the year, with March–October representing the optimal period in most cases. Spatial differences were also observed, with the best results obtained in the Mediterranean regions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Julia F. Lockwood, Galina S. Guentchev, Alexander Alabaster, Simon J. Brown, Erika J. Palin, Malcolm J. Roberts, and Hazel E. Thornton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3585–3606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe how we developed a set of 1300 years' worth of European winter windstorm footprints, using a multi-model ensemble of high-resolution global climate models, for use by the insurance industry to analyse windstorm risk. The large amount of data greatly reduces uncertainty on risk estimates compared to using shorter observational data sets and also allows the relationship between windstorm risk and predictable large-scale climate indices to be quantified.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert Compo, Suzanne Gray, Ivan Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martinez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1045, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1045, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK & Ireland. Using newly digitised weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that this event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. This approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Haoran Zhu, Priscilla Obeng Oforiwaa, and Guofeng Su
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3349–3359, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3349-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3349-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We promote a new method to detect waterlogging disasters. Residents are directly affected by waterlogging, and we can collect their comments on social networks. Compared to official-authentication and personal-certification users, the microblogs posted by general users can better show the intensity and timing of waterlogging. Through text and sentiment features, we can separate microblogs with waterlogging information from other ones and mark high-risk regions on maps.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Rafaela Jane Delfino, Gerry Bagtasa, Kevin Hodges, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3285–3307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We showed the effects of altering the choice of cumulus schemes, surface flux options, and spectral nudging with a high level of sensitivity to cumulus schemes in simulating an intense typhoon. We highlight the advantage of using an ensemble of cumulus parameterizations to take into account the uncertainty in simulating typhoons such as Haiyan in 2013. This study is useful in addressing the growing need to plan and prepare for as well as reduce the impacts of intense typhoons in the Philippines.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Emma Elizabeth Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, and Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-954, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. These changes can be directly linked to real world events, which make the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Pauline Combarnous, Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, Éric Defer, and Maud Martet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2943–2962, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study is to prepare the assimilation of satellite lightning data in the French regional numerical weather prediction system. The assimilation of lightning data requires an observation operator, based on empirical relationships between the lightning observations and a set of proxies derived from the numerical weather prediction system variables. We fit machine learning regression models to our data to yield those relationships and to investigate the best proxy for lightning.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-813, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-813, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we present a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe with a particular focus on Germany. Using different analysis approaches we study (a) the extremeness and attribution to anthropogenic climate change (climate perspective), as well as (b) the synoptic dynamics in concert with the role of slowly varying boundary conditions at the ocean and continental surfaces (seasonal and weather perspective).
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dirk Thielen, Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi, Mary L. Puche, Marco Marquez, José I. Quintero, Wilmer Rojas, Alberto Quintero, Guillermo Bianchi, Irma A. Soto-Werschitz, and Marco Aurelio Arizapana-Almonacid
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-763, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-763, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme El Niño events are significantly different from other El Niños, standing out for their powerful impacts, and are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity. In this regard, we provide valuable and highly strategic information on the similarities and differences between the effects on precipitation from types of extreme El Niño, highlighting spatially and quantitatively, those regions where most extreme precipitation anomalies are most likely to occur in extreme events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-192, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Heat waves (HW) are climatic hazards affecting the planet. We assess here uncertainties encountered in the process of HW detection and analyze their recent trends in West Africa using reanalysis data. Three types of uncertainties have been investigated. We identified 4 years with higher frequency of HW possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Atlantic. We noticed an increase in HW characteristics during the last decade, which could be a consequence of climate change.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-177, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Identification of snow avalanche Potential Release Areas (PRAs) is useful for objective hazard assessment. This study develops a method that efficiently identifies individual PRAs based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation, and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Crucial steps to reach high accuracy in PRA detection are highlighted and outlooks for further progresses are discussed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Chung-Chieh Wang, Pi-Yu Chuang, Shi-Ting Chen, Dong-In Lee, and Kazuhisa Tsuboki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1795–1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, cloud-resolving simulations are performed under idealized and uniform southwesterly flow direction and speed to investigate the rainfall regimes in the Mei-yu season and the role of complex mesoscale topography on rainfall without the influence of unwanted disturbances, including a low-Froude number regime where the thermodynamic effects and island circulation dominate, a high-Froude number regime where topographic rainfall in a flow-over scenario prevails, and a mixed regime.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Viorica Nagavciuc, Patrick Scholz, and Monica Ionita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1347–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we have assessed the variability and trends of hot and dry summers in Romania. The length, spatial extent, and frequency of heat waves in Romania have increased significantly over the last 70 years, while no significant changes have been observed in the drought conditions. The increased frequency of heat waves, especially after the 1990s, could be partially explained by an increase in the geopotential height over the eastern part of Europe.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Joris Pianezze, Jonathan Beuvier, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Guillaume Samson, Ghislain Faure, and Gilles Garric
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1301–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Most numerical weather and oceanic prediction systems do not consider ocean–atmosphere feedback during forecast, and this can lead to significant forecast errors, notably in cases of severe situations. A new high-resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere system is presented in this paper. This forecast-oriented system, based on current regional operational systems and evaluated using satellite and in situ observations, shows that the coupling improves both atmospheric and oceanic forecasts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Katherine L. Towey, James F. Booth, Alejandra Rodriguez Enriquez, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1287–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding due to storm surge from tropical cyclones is a significant hazard. The influence of tropical cyclone characteristics, including its proximity, intensity, path angle, and speed, on the magnitude of storm surge is examined along the eastern United States. No individual characteristic was found to be strongly related to how much surge occurred at a site, though there is an increased likelihood of high surge occurring when tropical cyclones are both strong and close to a location.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Arnau Amengual
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1159–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
On 12 and 13 September 2019, a long-lasting heavy precipitation episode resulted in widespread flash flooding over eastern Spain. Well-organized and quasi-stationary convective structures impacted a vast area with rainfall amounts over 200 mm. The very dry initial soil moisture conditions resulted in a dampened hydrological response: until runoff thresholds were exceeded, infiltration-excess generation did not start. This threshold-based behaviour is explored through simple scaling theory.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Benjamin J. Hatchett, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel J. McEvoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 869–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-869-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-869-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snow droughts, or below-average snowpack, can result from either dry conditions and/or rainfall instead of snowfall. Monitoring snow drought through time and across space is important to evaluate when snow drought onset occurred, its duration, spatial extent, and severity as well as what conditions created it or led to its termination. We present visualization techniques, including a web-based snow-drought-tracking tool, to evaluate snow droughts and assess their impacts in the western US.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Erika Médus, Emma D. Thomassen, Danijel Belušić, Petter Lind, Peter Berg, Jens H. Christensen, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Jonas Olsson, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the skill of a regional climate model, HARMONIE-Climate, to capture the present-day characteristics of heavy precipitation in the Nordic region and investigate the added value provided by a convection-permitting model version. The higher model resolution improves the representation of hourly heavy- and extreme-precipitation events and their diurnal cycle. The results indicate the benefits of convection-permitting models for constructing climate change projections over the region.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, Yi He, Martin Kadlec, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hilke S. Lentink, Patrick Ludwig, Desmond Manful, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 677–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
For various applications, it is crucial to have profound knowledge of the frequency, severity, and risk of extreme flood events. Such events are characterized by very long return periods which observations can not cover. We use a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations as input for a hydrological model. Precipitation data were post-processed to reduce systematic errors. The representation of precipitation and discharge is improved, and estimates of long return periods become robust.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Anja T. Rädler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 659–664, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-659-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disasters are causing high losses worldwide. To adequately deal with this loss potential, a reinsurer has to quantitatively assess the individual risks of natural catastrophes and how these risks are changing over time with respect to climate change. From a reinsurance perspective, the most pressing scientific challenges related to natural hazards are addressed, and broad changes are suggested that should be achieved by the scientific community to address these hazards in the future.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Jussi Leinonen, Ulrich Hamann, Urs Germann, and John R. Mecikalski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 577–597, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-577-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-577-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the usefulness of different data sources and variables to the short-term prediction (
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
nowcasting) of severe thunderstorms using machine learning. Machine-learning models are trained with data from weather radars, satellite images, lightning detection and weather forecasts and with terrain elevation data. We analyze the benefits provided by each of the data sources to predicting hazards (heavy precipitation, lightning and hail) caused by the thunderstorms.
Rubina Ansari and Giovanna Grossi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 287–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-287-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The current research investigated spatio-temporal evolution of wet–dry events collectively, their characteristics, and their transition (wet to dry and dry to wet) across the Upper Jhelum Basin using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration (SPEI) at a monthly timescale. The results provide significant knowledge to identify and locate most vulnerable geographical hotspots of extreme events, providing the basis for more effective risk reduction and climate change adaptation plans.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dominik Jackisch, Bi Xuan Yeo, Adam D. Switzer, Shaoneng He, Danica Linda M. Cantarero, Fernando P. Siringan, and Nathalie F. Goodkin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 213–226, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-213-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-213-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Philippines is a nation very vulnerable to devastating typhoons. We investigate if stable isotopes of precipitation can be used to detect typhoon activities in the Philippines based on daily isotope measurements from Metropolitan Manila. We find that strong typhoons such as Rammasun, which occurred in July 2014, leave detectable isotopic signals in precipitation. Besides other factors, the distance of the typhoon to the sampling site plays a key role in influencing the signal.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Chung-Chieh Wang, Pi-Yu Chuang, Chih-Sheng Chang, Kazuhisa Tsuboki, Shin-Yi Huang, and Guo-Chen Leu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 23–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-23-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-23-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study indicated that the Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS) model significantly improved heavy-rainfall quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Taiwan Mei-yu season. At high resolution, the model has higher threat scores and is more skillful in predicting larger rainfall events compared to smaller ones. And the strength of the model mainly lies in the topographic rainfall rather than less predictable and migratory events due to nonlinearity.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matthieu Plu, Guillaume Bigeard, Bojan Sič, Emanuele Emili, Luca Bugliaro, Laaziz El Amraoui, Jonathan Guth, Beatrice Josse, Lucia Mona, and Dennis Piontek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3731–3747, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, may have huge economic consequences due to flight cancellations. In this article, we demonstrate the benefits of source term improvement and of data assimilation for quantifying volcanic ash concentrations. The work, which was supported by the EUNADICS-AV project, is the first one, to our knowledge, that demonstrates the benefit of the assimilation of ground-based lidar data over Europe during an eruption.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Elizaveta Felsche and Ralf Ludwig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3679–3691, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3679-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies artificial neural networks to predict drought occurrence in Munich and Lisbon, with a lead time of 1 month. An analysis of the variables that have the highest impact on the prediction is performed. The study shows that the North Atlantic Oscillation index and air pressure 1 month before the event have the highest importance for the prediction. Moreover, it shows that seasonality strongly influences the goodness of prediction for the Lisbon domain.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Benjamin Poschlod
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3573–3598, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3573-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3573-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Three regional climate models (RCMs) are used to simulate extreme daily rainfall in Bavaria statistically occurring once every 10 or even 100 years. Results are validated with observations. The RCMs can reproduce spatial patterns and intensities, and setups with higher spatial resolutions show better results. These findings suggest that RCMs are suitable for assessing the probability of the occurrence of such rare rainfall events.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Heinz Jürgen Punge, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael Kunz, Sarah D. Bang, and Kyle F. Itterly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-342, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-342, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance loss data. It is found that hail concentrate mainly in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event properties, such as multiple events on a day or track dimensions, yields an event catalog for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, required for insurance companies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matthieu Plu, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Delia Arnold Arias, Rocio Baro, Guillaume Bigeard, Luca Bugliaro, Ana Carvalho, Laaziz El Amraoui, Kurt Eschbacher, Marcus Hirtl, Christian Maurer, Marie D. Mulder, Dennis Piontek, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2973–2992, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Past volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, forced the cancellation of thousands of flights and had huge economic consequences.
In this article, an international team in the H2020 EU-funded EUNADICS-AV project has designed a probabilistic model approach to quantify ash concentrations. This approach is evaluated against measurements, and its potential use to mitigate the impact of future large-scale eruptions is discussed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2949–2972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2949-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2949-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme river discharge may be triggered by large accumulations of precipitation over short time periods, which can result from the successive occurrence of extreme-precipitation events. We find a distinct spatiotemporal pattern in the temporal clustering behavior of precipitation extremes over Switzerland, with clustering occurring on the northern side of the Alps in winter and on their southern side in fall. Clusters tend to be followed by extreme discharge, particularly in the southern Alps.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Patricia Tarín-Carrasco, Sofia Augusto, Laura Palacios-Peña, Nuno Ratola, and Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2867–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2867-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2867-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Uncontrolled wildfires have a substantial impact on the environment and local populations. Although most southern European countries have been impacted by wildfires in the last decades, Portugal has the highest percentage of burned area compared to its whole territory. Under this umbrella, associations between large fires, PM10, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality (circulatory and respiratory) have been explored using Poisson regression models for 2001–2016.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Vincenzo Mazzarella, Rossella Ferretti, Errico Picciotti, and Frank Silvio Marzano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2849–2865, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2849-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2849-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting precipitation over the Mediterranean basin is still a challenge. In this context, data assimilation techniques play a key role in improving the initial conditions and consequently the timing and position of the precipitation forecast. For the first time, the ability of a cycling 4D-Var to reproduce a heavy rain event in central Italy, as well as to provide a comparison with the largely used cycling 3D-Var, is evaluated in this study.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Avaronthan Veettil Sreenath, Sukumarapillai Abhilash, and Pattathil Vijaykumar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2597–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2597-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2597-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning is a multifaceted hazard with widespread negative consequences for the environment and society. We explore how El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases impact the lightning over India by modulating the deep convection and associated atmospheric thermodynamics. Results show that ENSO phases directly influence lightning during monsoon and postmonsoon seasons by pushing the mean position of subtropical westerlies southward.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Michelle D. Spruce, Rudy Arthur, Joanne Robbins, and Hywel T. P. Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2407–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2407-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2407-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Despite increased use of impact-based weather warnings, the social impacts of extreme weather events lie beyond the reach of conventional meteorological observations and remain difficult to quantify. This study compares data collected from the social media platform Twitter with a manually curated database of high-impact rainfall events across the globe between January–June 2017. Twitter is found to be a good detector of impactful rainfall events and, therefore, a useful source of impact data.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Folmer Krikken, Flavio Lehner, Karsten Haustein, Igor Drobyshev, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2169–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forest fires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from a meteorological perspective. This is done by studying observationally constrained data and multiple climate models. We find a small reduced probability of such events, based on reanalyses, but a small increased probability due to global warming up to now and a more robust increase in the risk for such events in the future, based on climate models.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Florian Pappenberger, Florence Rabier, and Fabio Venuti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2163–2167, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2163-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2163-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts mission is to deliver high-quality global medium‐range (3–15 d ahead of time) weather forecasts and monitoring of the Earth system. We have published a new strategy, and in this paper we discuss what this means for forecasting and monitoring natural hazards.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Elissavet Galanaki, Konstantinos Lagouvardos, Vassiliki Kotroni, Theodore Giannaros, and Christos Giannaros
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1983–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1983-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1983-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A two-way coupled hydrometeorological model (WRF-Hydro) is used for flood forecasting purposes in medium-catchment-size basins in Greece. The results showed the capability of WRF-Hydro to adequately simulate the observed discharge and the slight improvement in terms of quantitative precipitation forecasting compared to the WRF-only simulations.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Cited articles
Anderson, G. and Klugmann, D.: A European lightning density analysis using 5 years of ATDnet data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-815-2014, 2014.
Barras, H., Hering, A., Martynov, A., Noti, P.-A., Germann, U., and Martius,
O.: Experiences with >50 000 crowdsourced hail reports in
Switzerland, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 100, 1429–1440, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0090.1, 2019.
Bazlova, T., Bocharnikov, N., and Solonin, A.: Aviation operational
nowcasting systems, 3rd European Nowcasting Conference, Madrid, 24–26 April
2019, available at: https://enc2019.aemet.es/ (last access: 21 April 2021), 2019.
Ben Bouallegue, Z., Haiden, T., Weber, N. J., Hamill, T. M., and Richardson,
D. S.: Accounting for Representativeness in the Verification of Ensemble
Precipitation Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 148, 2049–2062,
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0323.1, 2020.
Betz, H. D., Schmidt, K., Laroche, P., Blanchet, P., Oettinger, W. P.,
Defer, E., Dziewit, Z., and Konarski, J.: LINET – An international
lightning detection network in Europe, Atmos. Res., 91, 564–573,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.06.012, 2009.
Blakeslee, R. and Koshak, W.: LIS on ISS: Expanded Global Coverage and
Enhanced Applications, The Earth Observer, 28, 4–14, 2016.
Bosart, L. F. and Landin, M. G.: An assessment of thunderstorm probability
forecasting skill, Weather Forecast., 9, 522–531, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009<0522:AAOTPF>2.0.CO;2, 1994.
Boutle, I. A., Finnenkoetter, A., Lock, A. P., and Wells, H.: The London
Model: forecasting fog at 333 m resolution, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 360–371, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2656, 2016.
Brown, K. and Buchanan, P.: An objective verification system for
thunderstorm risk forecasts, Meteorol. Appl., 26, 140–152,
https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1748, 2018.
Brunet, D., Sills, D., and Driedger, N.: On the evaluation of probabilistic
thunderstorm forecasts and the automated generation of thunderstorm threat
areas during Environment Canada Pan Am Science Showcase, Weather Forecast.,
34, 1295–1319, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0011.1, 2019.
Bullock, R. G., Brown, B. G., and Fowler, T. L.: Method for Object-Based
Diagnostic Evaluation, NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-532+STR, 84 pp., https://doi.org/10.5065/D61V5CBS, 2016.
Capitanio, M.: Occurrence and forecast of low stratus clouds over
Switzerland, Master's thesis, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule,
Zürich, 2013.
Caumont, O.: Towards quantitative lightning forecasts with convective-scale
Numerical Weather Prediction systems, Aeronautical Meteorology scientific
conference, 6–10 November 2017, Meteo-France, Toulouse, France, 2017.
Cermak, J. and Bendix, J.: A novel approach to fog/low stratus detection
using Meteosat 8 data, Atmos. Res., 87, 279–292, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2007.11.009, 2008.
Corbosiero, K. L. and Galarneau, T. J.: Verification of a daily thunderstorm
probability forecast contest using the National Lightning Detection Network,
23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, 1–5 June, Omaha,
Nebraska, 2009.
Corbosiero, K. L. and Lazear, R. A.: Verification of thunderstorm occurrence
using the National Lightning Detection Network, Sixth Conference on the
Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, 6–10 January, Austin, Texas,
available at: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/kristen/tsclimo/tsclimo.html (last access: 21 April 2021), 2013.
Cummins, K. L. and Murphy, M. J.: An overview of lightning locating systems:
history, techniques, and data uses, with an in-depth look at the U.S. NLDN,
IEEE Transaction on Electromagnetic Compatibility, 51, 499–518, https://doi.org/10.1109/TEMC.2009.2023450, 2009.
Davis, C. A., Brown, B. G., and Bullock, R. G.: Object-based verification of
precipitation forecasts. Part I: Methodology and application to mesoscale
rain areas, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 1772–1784, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3145.1, 2006.
De Coning, E., Gijben, M., Maseko, B., and Van Hemert, L.: Using satellite
data to identify and track intense thunderstorms in south and southern
Africa, S. Afr. J. Sci., 111, 1–9, 2015.
de Rosa, M., Picchiani, M., Sist, M., and Del Frate, F.: A novel
multispectral algorithm for the detection, tracking and nowcasting of the
thunderstorms using the Meteosat Second Generation images, 2nd European
Nowcasting Conference, Offenbach, 3–5 May 2017,
available at: http://eumetnet.eu/enc-2017/ (last access: 21 April 2021), 2017.
Derrien, M. and Le Gléau, H.: MSG/SEVIRI cloud mask and type from
SAFNWC, Int. J. Remote S., 26, 4707–4732, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160500166128, 2005.
Dorninger, M., Ghelli, A., and Lerch, S.: Editorial: Recent developments and
application examples on forecast verification, Met. Apps., 27, 1–3, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1934, 2020.
Dotzek, N., Groenemeijer, P., Feuerstein, B., and Holzer, A. M.: Overview of
ESSL's severe convective storm research using the European
Severe Weather Database ESWD, Atmos. Res., 93, 575–586, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.10.020, 2009.
Ebert, E. E.: Fuzzy verification of high-resolution gridded forecasts: a
review and proposed framework, Met. Apps., 15, 51–64, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.25, 2008.
Ehrler, A.: A methodology for evaluating fog and low stratus with satellite
data, Master Thesis, ETH Zürich, Department of Earth
Sciences, Zürich, 2018.
Flora, M. L., Skinner, P. S., Potvin, C. K., Reinhart, A. E., Jones, T. A.,
Yussouf, N., and Knopfmeier, K. H.: Object-Based Verification of Short-Term,
Storm-Scale Probabilistic Mesocyclone Guidance from an Experimental
Warn-on-Forecast System, Weather Forecast., 34, 1721–1739, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0094.1, 2019.
Gaia, M., Della Bruna, G., Hering, A., Nerini, D., and Ortelli, V.: Hybrid
human expert and machine-based thunderstorm warnings: a novel operation
nowcasting system for severe weather at MeteoSwiss, 2nd European Nowcasting
Conference, Offenbach, 3–5 May 2017, available at: http://eumetnet.eu/enc-2017/ (last access: 21 April 2021), 2017.
Ghude, S. D., Bhat, G.
S., Prabhakaran, T., Jenamani, R. K., Chate, D. M., Safai, P. D., Karipot, A. K., Konwar, M.,
Pithani, P., Sinha, V., Rao, P. S. P., Dixit, S. A., Tiwari, S., Todekar, K., Varpe, S., Srivastava, A. K., Bisht, D. S., Murugavel, P., Ali, K., Mina, U., Dharua, M., Rao, J. Y., Padmakumari, B., Hazra, A., Nigam, N., Shende, U., Lal, D. M., Chandra, B. P., Mishra, A. K., Kumar, A., Hakkim, H., Pawar, H., Acharja, P., Kulkarni, R., Subharthi, C., Balaji, B., Varghese, M., Bera, S., and Rajeevan, M.: Winter fog experiment over the Indo-Gangetic plains of India,
Curr. Sci. India, 112, 767–784, https://doi.org/10.18520/cs/v112/i04/767-784, 2017.
Gijben, M.: The Lightning Climatology of South Africa, S. Afr. J. Sci., 108, 740, 2012.
Gijben, M. and De Coning, E.: Using Satellite and Lightning Data to Track
Rapidly Developing Thunderstorms in Data Sparse Regions, Atmosphere, 8,
67, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8040067, 2017.
Gilleland, E., Ahijevych, D., Brown, B. G., Casati, B., and Ebert, E. E.:
Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods, Weather Forecast.,
24, 1416–1430, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009WAF2222269.1, 2009.
Goessling, H. F. and Jung, T.: A probabilistic verification score for
contours: Methodology and application to Artic ice-edge forecasts, Q. J. Roy.
Meteor. Soc., 144, 735–743, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3242, 2018.
Gultepe, I.: Fog and Boundary Layer Clouds: Introduction, in: Fog and Boundary Layer Clouds: Fog Visibility and Forecasting, edited by: Gultepe, I., Pageoph Topical Volumes, Birkhäuser, Basel, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7643-8419-7_1, 2007.
Hacker, M. and Bott, A.: Modeling the spatial and temporal variability of
fog in the Namib Desert with COSMO-PAFOG, ICCARUS 2018, 26–28 February, DWD,
Offenbach, Germany, 2018.
Harrison, S., Potter, S., Prasanna, R., Doyle, E. E. H., and Johnston, D.:
Volunteered Geographic Information for people-centred severe weather early
warning: A literature review, The Australasian Journal of Disaster and
Trauma Studies, 24, 3–21, 2020.
Hitchens, N. M., Brooks, H. E., and Kay, M. P.: Objective Limits on Forecasting Skill of Rare Events, Weather Forecast., 28, 525–534, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00113.1, 2013.
Holzer, A. M. and Groenemeijer, P.: Report on the testing of EUMETSAT
NWC-SAF products at the ESSL Testbed 2017, available at:
https://www.essl.org/media/Testbed2017/20170929ESSLTestbedReportforNWCSAFfinal.pdf (last access: 21 April 2021),
2017.
Jolliffe, I. T. and Stephenson, D. B.: Forecast Verification: A
Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, Second Edition, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ, UK, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119960003, 2012.
Keller, M., Fuhrer, O., Schmidli, J., Stengel, M., Stöckli, R., and
Schär, C.: Evaluation of convection-resolving models using satellite
data: The diurnal cycle of summer convection over the Alps, Meteorol. Z., 25, 165–179, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2015/0715, 2015.
Magnusson, L.: Collection of Severe Weather Event articles from ECMWF
Newsletters 2014–2019, ECMWF, Reading, UK,
available at: https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/medialibrary/2019-04/ecmwf-nl-severe-events.pdf (last access: 21 April 2021),
2019.
Mahringer, G.: Terminal aerodrome forecast verification in Austro Control
using time windows and ranges of forecast conditions, Meteorol. Appl., 15,
113–123, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.62, 2008.
Mäkelä, A., Tuomi, T. J., and Haapalainen, J.: A decade of high‐latitude lightning location: Effects of the evolving location network in Finland, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D21124, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012183, 2010.
Marsigli, C., Alferov, D., Astakhova, E., Duniec, G., Gayfulin, D., Gebhardt, C., Interewicz, W., Loglisci, N., Marcucci, F., Mazur, A., Montani, A., Tsyrulnikov, M., and Walser, A.: Studying perturbations for the representation of
modeling uncertainties in Ensemble development (SPRED Priority Project):
Final Report, COSMO Technical Report No. 39, https://doi.org/10.5676/DWDpub/nwv/cosmo-tr39, 2019.
Morales, G., Calvo, J., Román-Cascón, C., and Yagüe, C.:
Verification of fog and low cloud simulations using an object oriented
method, Assembly of the European Geophysical Union (EGU), Vienna, Austria, 7–12
April, EGU2013-8474, 2013.
Müller, M. D., Masbou, M., and Bott, A.: Three-dimensional fog
forecasting in complex terrain, Q. J. Roy.
Meteor. Soc., 136, 2189–2202, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.705, 2010.
Müller, R., Haussler, S., Jerg, M., Asmus, J., Hungershöfer, K., and
Leppelt, T.: SATICUS - Satellite based detection of thunderstorms
(Cumulonimbus Cb), 2nd European Nowcasting Conference, Offenbach, 3–5 May 2017, available at: http://eumetnet.eu/enc-2017/ (last access: 21 April 2021), 2017.
Pardowitz, T.: A statistical model to estimate the local vulnerability to severe weather, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1617–1631, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1617-2018, 2018.
Pardowitz, T. and Göber, M.: Forecasting weather related fire brigade
operations on the basis of nowcasting data, in: LNIS Vol. 8, RIMMA Risk
Information Management, Risk Models and Applications, CODATA Germany,
Berlin, edited by: Kremers, H. and Susini, A., ISBN 978-3-00-056177-1,
2017.
Rempel, M., Senf, F., and Deneke, H.: Object-based metrics for forecast
verification of convective development with geostationary satellite data,
Mon. Weather Rev., 145, 3161–3178, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0480.1, 2017.
Riede, H., Acevedo-Valencia, J. W., Bouras, A., Paschalidi, Z., Hellweg, M.,
Helmert, K., Hagedorn, R., Potthast, R., Kratzsch, T., and Nachtigal, J.:
Passenger car data as a new source of real-time weather information for
nowcasting, forecasting and road safe, ENC2019, Third European Nowcasting
Conference, Book of Abstracts, 24–26 April 2019, AEMET, Madrid, Spain, 2019.
Roberts, N. M. and Lean, H. W.: Scale-selective verification of rainfall
accumulations from high-resolution forecasts of convective events, Mon.
Weather Rev., 136, 78–97, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2123.1, 2007.
Roberts, R. D., Anderson, A. S., Nelson, E., Brown, B. G., Wilson, J. W.,
Pocernich, M., and Saxen, T.: Impacts of forecaster involvement on
convective storm initiation and evolution Nowcasting, Weather
Forecast., 27, 1061–1089, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00087.1, 2012.
Rossi, P. J., Hasu, V., Halmevaara, K., Mäkelä, A., Koistinen, J.,
and Pohjola, H.: Real-time hazard approximation of long-lasting convective
storms using emergency data, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 30,
538–555, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-11-00106.1, 2013.
Roux, B.: ACCESS sensitivity experiments for fog cases at Perth Airport,
Bureau Research Report 033, ISBN 978-1-925738-04-9, 2017.
Schmid, F., Bañon, L., Agersten, S., Atencia, A., de Coning, E., Kann,
A., Wang, Y., and Wapler, K.: Conference Report: Third European Nowcasting
Conference, Meteorol. Z., 28, 447–450, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2019/0983, 2019.
Schuster, S. S., Blong, R. J., Leigh, R. J., and McAneney, K. J.: Characteristics of the 14 April 1999 Sydney hailstorm based on ground observations, weather radar, insurance data and emergency calls, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 613–620, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-5-613-2005, 2005.
Steeneveld, G. J., Ronda, R. J., and Holtslag, A. A. M.: The challenge of
forecasting the onset and development of radiation fog using mesoscale
atmospheric models, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 154, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-014-9973-8, 2015.
Tsonevsky, I., Doswell, C. A., and Brooks, H. E.: Early warnings of severe
convection using the ECMWF extreme forecast index, Weather Forecast., 33,
857–871, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0030.1, 2018.
Valachova, M. and Sykorova, P.: Convective Storm Nowcasting by remote
sensing data combination, Book of Abstract, 2nd European Nowcasting
Conference, 3–5 May 2017, Headquarters of DWD, Offenbach, Germany, 2017.
Wapler, K., Goeber, M., and Trepte, S.: Comparative verification of different nowcasting systems to support optimisation of thunderstorm warnings, Adv. Sci. Res., 8, 121–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-8-121-2012, 2012.
Wapler, K., Harnisch, F., Pardowitz, T., and Senf, F.: Characterisation and
predictability of a strong and a weak severe convective event – a
multi-data approach, Meteorol. Z., 24, 393–410, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2015/0625,
2015.
Wapler, K., Banon Peregrin, L. M., Buzzi, M., Heizenreder, D., Kann, A.,
Meirold-Mautner, I., Simon, A., and Wang, Y.: Conference Report 2nd European
Nowcasting Conference, Meteorol. Z., 27, 81–84, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2017/0870,
2018.
Wapler, K., de Coning, E., and Buzzi, M.: Nowcasting, Reference Module in
Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences, Elsevier, Amsterdam, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-409548-9.11777-4, 2019.
Wernli, H., Paulat, M., Hagen, M., and Frei, C.: SAL – A novel quality
measure for the verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts, Mon.
Weather Rev., 136, 4470–4487, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2415.1, 2008.
Westerhuis, S., Eugster, W., Fuhrer, O., and Bott A.: Towards an improved
representation of radiation fog in the Swiss numerical weather prediction
models, ICCARUS 2018, 26–28 February, DWD, Offenbach, Germany, 2018.
Williams, H.: Social sensing of natural hazards, 41st EWGLAM and
26th SRNWP Meeting, Sofia, Bulgaria, available at: http://srnwp.met.hu/ (last access: 21 April 2021), 2019.
Wilson, C. and Mittermaier, M.: Observation needed for verification of
additional forecast products, Twelfth Workshop on Meteorological Operational
Systems, 2–6 November 2009, Conference Paper, ECMWF, Reading, UK, 2009.
Wiwatwattana, N., Sangkhatad, K., and Srivatanakul, T.: An analysis and case
study of using mobile crowdsourcing for weather forecast verification, 2015 6th IEEE International Conference on Software Engineering and Service Science (ICSESS),
Beijing, 251–254, https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSESS.2015.7339048, 2015.
WMO-No.1198: Guidelines for Nowcasting Techniques, 2017 Edition,
World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, ISBN 978-92-63-11198-2,
2017.
WMO-No.8: Guide to Instruments and Methods of Observation, 2018 Edition,
World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, ISBN
978-92-63-10008-5, 2018.
Zhang, Q., Li, L., Ebert, B., Golding, B., Johnston, D., Mills, B., Panchuk,
S., Potter, S., Riemer, M., Sun, J., and Taylor, A.: Increasing the value of
weather-related warnings, Sci. Bull., 64, 647–649, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.04.003, 2019.
Zhou, B. and Du, J.: Fog prediction from a multimodel mesoscale ensemble
prediction system, Weather Forecast., 25, 303–322, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009WAF2222289.1, 2010.
Short summary
This paper reviews new observations for the verification of high-impact weather and provides advice for their usage in objective verification. New observations include remote sensing datasets, products developed for nowcasting, datasets derived from telecommunication systems, data collected from citizens, reports of impacts and reports from insurance companies. This work has been performed in the framework of the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) of the WMO.
This paper reviews new observations for the verification of high-impact weather and provides...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint