Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1071–1085, 2021
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1071–1085, 2021

Research article 23 Mar 2021

Research article | 23 Mar 2021

The uncertainty of flood frequency analyses in hydrodynamic model simulations

Xudong Zhou et al.

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Cited articles

Aerts, J. P. M., Uhlemann-Elmer, S., Eilander, D., and Ward, P. J.: Comparison of estimates of global flood models for flood hazard and exposed gross domestic product: a China case study, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3245–3260,, 2020. a
Akaike, H.: A new look at the statistical model identification, IEEE T Automat. Contr., 19, 716–723, 1974. a
Alvisi, S. and Franchini, M.: A grey-based method for evaluating the effects of rating curve uncertainty on frequency analysis of annual maxima, J. Hydroinform., 15, 194–210,, 2013. a
Bales, J. D. and Wagner, C. R.: Sources of uncertainty in flood inundation maps, J. Flood Risk Manag., 2, 139–147,, 2009. a
Bernhofen, M. V., Whyman, C., Trigg, M. A., Sleigh, P. A., Smith, A. M., Sampson, C. C., Yamazaki, D., Ward, P. J., Rudari, R., Pappenberger, F., Dottori, F., Salamon, P., and Winsemius, H. C.: A first collective validation of global fluvial flood models for major floods in Nigeria and Mozambique, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 104007,, 2018. a
Short summary
This article assesses different uncertainties in the analysis of flood risk and found the runoff generated before the river routing is the primary uncertainty source. This calls for attention to be focused on selecting an appropriate runoff for the flood analysis. The uncertainties are reflected in the flood water depth, inundation area and the exposure of the population and economy to the floods.
Final-revised paper