Articles | Volume 20, issue 12
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3521–3549, 2020
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3521–3549, 2020

Research article 17 Dec 2020

Research article | 17 Dec 2020

Downsizing parameter ensembles for simulations of rare floods

Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner et al.

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Manuscript not accepted for further review
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Cited articles

Addor, N., Rössler, O., Köplin, N., Huss, M., Weingartner, R., and Seibert, J.: Robust changes and sources of uncertainty in the projected hydrological regimes of Swiss catchments, Water Resour. Res., 50, 7541–7562,, 2014. a
American Society of Civil Engineers: Hydrology Handbook, 2nd Edn., American Society of Civil Engineers, New York,, 1996.  a
Arnaud, P. and Lavabre, J.: Coupled rainfall model and discharge model for flood frequency estimation, Water Resour. Res., 38, 1075,, 2002. a, b
Arnaud, P., Cantet, P., and Odry, J.: Uncertainties of flood frequency estimation approaches based on continuous simulation using data resampling, J. Hydrol., 554, 360–369,, 2017. a, b
BAFU: Hochwasserstatistik Stationsbericht Dünnern – Olten, Hammermüuhle, BAFU Bericht, available at: (last access: 16 December 2020), 2017. a
Short summary
This work proposes methods for reducing the computational requirements of hydrological simulations for the estimation of very rare floods that occur on average less than once in 1000 years. These methods enable the analysis of long streamflow time series (here for example 10 000 years) at low computational costs and with modelling uncertainty. They are to be used within continuous simulation frameworks with long input time series and are readily transferable to similar simulation tasks.
Final-revised paper