- Articles & preprints
- Submission
- Policies
- Peer review
- Editorial board
- About
- EGU publications
- Manuscript tracking
Journal cover
Journal topic
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic
- Articles & preprints
- Submission
- Policies
- Peer review
- Editorial board
- About
- EGU publications
- Manuscript tracking
Journal metrics
IF3.102
IF 5-year
3.284
3.284
CiteScore
5.1
5.1
SNIP1.37
IPP3.21
SJR1.005
Scimago H
index90
index90
h5-index42
Abstracted/indexed
Abstracted/indexed
NHESS | Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3083–3097, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3083-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3083-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3083–3097, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3083-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3083-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 16 Nov 2020
Research article | 16 Nov 2020
The contribution of air temperature and ozone to mortality rates during hot weather episodes in eight German cities during the years 2000 and 2017
Alexander Krug et al.
Related authors
No articles found.
Xun Wang, Marco Otto, and Dieter Scherer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-418, 2021
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a high-resolution, gridded atmospheric dataset combined with landslide inventories to investigate the role of snowmelt in landslide triggering, define thresholds of atmospheric triggers, and characterize climatic disposition of landslides in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Our results indicate the crucial role of snowmelt in landslide triggering and prediction in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and the added value of climatic disposition derived from atmospheric triggering conditions.
Dieter Scherer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3835–3850, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3835-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3835-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
During the Pliocene, the Qaidam Basin on the Tibetan Plateau contained a mega-lake system. During the Pleistocene, it disappeared almost completely. Today, hyperarid climates prevail in the low-altitude parts of the basin. This study reveals that today's mean water balance of the Qaidam Basin is nearly zero and is positive during warmer, less dry years. The results explain how the mega-lake system could survive for a long time in the past and could eventually be restored in the future.
Friderike Kuik, Axel Lauer, Galina Churkina, Hugo A. C. Denier van der Gon, Daniel Fenner, Kathleen A. Mar, and Tim M. Butler
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4339–4363, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4339-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4339-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The study evaluates the performance of a setup of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry and aerosols (WRF–Chem) for the Berlin–Brandenburg region of Germany. Its sensitivity to updating urban input parameters based on structural data for Berlin is tested, specifying land use classes on a sub-grid scale, downscaling the original emissions to a resolution of ca. 1 km by 1 km for Berlin based on proxy data and model resolution.
Julia Curio and Dieter Scherer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 767–782, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-767-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-767-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Using correlation analysis, we examine the influence of selected atmospheric variables, e.g. wind speed and moisture transport, on the precipitation variability over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). We find that different factors have different effects in different regions and seasons and that the midlatitude westerlies have an impact on the precipitation distribution on the TP and its surroundings year-round and not only in winter.
Oliver Buchin, Britta Jänicke, Fred Meier, Dieter Scherer, and Felix Ziegler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 963–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-963-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-963-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Heat-related risk analysis is based on outdoor climates; however, humans are mostly exposed to indoor climates. A novel heat-related risk concept is developed, which includes exposition to the indoor climate. An exemplary calculation of heat-related mortality reveals that the influence of building physics better explains the variability in the risk data. Simplified building models can be used for indoor hazard calculation as long as the main non-linear effects of the buildings are included.
J. Curio, F. Maussion, and D. Scherer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 109–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-109-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-109-2015, 2015
T. Sauter, M. Möller, R. Finkelnburg, M. Grabiec, D. Scherer, and C. Schneider
The Cryosphere, 7, 1287–1301, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1287-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-1287-2013, 2013
E. Collier, T. Mölg, F. Maussion, D. Scherer, C. Mayer, and A. B. G. Bush
The Cryosphere, 7, 779–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-779-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-779-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Extension of the WRF-Chem volcanic emission preprocessor to integrate complex source terms and evaluation for different emission scenarios of the Grimsvötn 2011 eruption
Predictive modeling of hourly probabilities for weather-related road accidents
Assessing atmospheric moisture effects on heavy precipitation during HyMeX IOP16 using GPS nudging and dynamical downscaling
Modeling volcanic ash aggregation processes and related impacts on the April–May 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull volcano with WRF-Chem
Intra-annual variability of the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) and occurrence of extreme torrential precipitation in Catalonia (NE Iberia)
Review article: A comprehensive review of datasets and methodologies employed to produce thunderstorm climatologies
Assessing heat exposure to extreme temperatures in urban areas using the Local Climate Zones classification
A 30-m scale modeling of extreme gusts during Hurricane Irma (2017) landfall on very small mountainous islands in the Lesser Antilles
Bias correction of a gauge-based gridded product to improve extreme precipitation analysis in the Yarlung Tsangpo–Brahmaputra River basin
Analysis of the Universal Thermal Climate Index during heat waves in Serbia
Brief Communication: An electrifying atmospheric river – understanding the thunderstorm event in Santa Barbara County during March 2019
Spatiotemporal changes of heat waves and extreme temperatures in the main cities of China from 1955 to 2014
Ambient conditions prevailing during hail events in central Europe
Modelling a tropical-like cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea under present and warmer climate
Present and future changes in winter climate indices relevant for access disruptions in Troms, northern Norway
Hydrometeorological droughts in the Miño–Limia–Sil hydrographic demarcation (northwestern Iberian Peninsula): the role of atmospheric drivers
A Methodology for Attributing the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Events: A Global Spectrally Nudged Storyline
Brief communication: The role of using precipitation or river discharge data when assessing global coastal compound flooding
Estimation of tropical cyclone wind hazards in coastal regions of China
A methodology to conduct wind damage field surveys for high-impact weather events of convective origin
The sensitivity of intense rainfall to aerosol particle loading – a comparison of bin-resolved microphysics modelling with observations of heavy precipitation from HyMeX IOP7a
Brief communication: Hurricane Dorian: automated near-real-time mapping of the “unprecedented” flooding in the Bahamas using synthetic aperture radar
Data impact studies with the AROME WMED reanalysis of the HyMeX SOP1
Systematic error analysis of heavy-precipitation-event prediction using a 30-year hindcast dataset
An 18-year climatology of derechos in Germany
Are Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness?
Exposure of real estate properties to the 2018 Hurricane Florence flooding
Modelling global tropical cyclone wind footprints
Remote sensing in an index-based insurance design for hedging economic impacts on rice cultivation
Contribution of personal weather stations to the observation of deep-convection features near the ground
Improving sub-seasonal forecast skill of meteorological drought: a weather pattern approach
Simulations of the 2005, 1910, and 1876 Vb cyclones over the Alps – sensitivity to model physics and cyclonic moisture flux
Changes in flood damage with global warming on the eastern coast of Spain
Probabilistic modelling of the dependence between rainfed crops and drought hazard
First reported case of thunderstorm asthma in Israel
Meteorological conditions leading to the 2015 Salgar flash flood: lessons for vulnerable regions in tropical complex terrain
Estimates of tropical cyclone geometry parameters based on best-track data
Identifying a transition climate zone in an arid river basin using the evaporative stress index
The impact of lightning and radar reflectivity factor data assimilation on the very short-term rainfall forecasts of RAMS@ISAC: application to two case studies in Italy
Impact of the dry-day definition on Mediterranean extreme dry-spell analysis
Effects of horizontal resolution and air–sea flux parameterization on the intensity and structure of simulated Typhoon Haiyan (2013)
Flood risk in a range of spatial perspectives – from global to local scales
Radar-derived convective storms' climatology for the Prut River basin: 2003–2017
The impact of drought on the productivity of two rainfed crops in Spain
A high-resolution spatial assessment of the impacts of drought variability on vegetation activity in Spain from 1981 to 2015
Chilling accumulation in fruit trees in Spain under climate change
Atmospheric circulation changes and their impact on extreme sea levels around Australia
Synoptic-scale conditions and convection-resolving hindcast experiments of a cold-season derecho on 3 January 2014 in western Europe
Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at an hourly resolution
Assessing the impact of sea surface temperatures on a simulated medicane using ensemble simulations
Marcus Hirtl, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Martin Stuefer, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Christian Maurer, and Marie D. Mulder
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3099–3115, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3099-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3099-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper shows the application of a new volcanic emission preprocessor for the chemical transport model WRF-Chem. The model is evaluated with different observational data sets for the eruption of the Grimsvötn volcano 2011.
Nico Becker, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A set of models is developed to forecast hourly probabilities of weather-related road accidents in Germany at the spatial scale of administrative districts. Model verification shows that using precipitation and temperature data leads to the best accident forecasts. Based on weather forecast data we show that skilful predictions of accident probabilities of up to 21 h ahead are possible. The models can be used to issue impact-based warnings, which are relevant for road users and authorities.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez and Samiro Khodayar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2753–2776, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2753-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation causes serious losses and several casualties in the western Mediterranean every year. To predict this phenomenon better, we aim at understanding how the models represent the interaction between atmospheric moisture and precipitation by nudging a 10 min, state-of-the-art GPS data set. We found, for the selected case in autumn 2012, that the improvement in the modelling of precipitation stems from relevant variations of atmospheric instability and humidity above 1.5 km.
Sean D. Egan, Martin Stuefer, Peter W. Webley, Taryn Lopez, Catherine F. Cahill, and Marcus Hirtl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2721–2737, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2721-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2721-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Weather Research Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model was modified to include volcanic ash aggregation. The modified WRF-Chem model was run with and without aggregation, and changes in the model output were measured. Changes in the lifetime of volcanic ash a function of the chosen fractal dimension were quantified. A case study using the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull revealed that the aggregation modifications result in tephra fallout and ash concentrations near observed values.
Joan Albert Lopez-Bustins, Laia Arbiol-Roca, Javier Martin-Vide, Antoni Barrera-Escoda, and Marc Prohom
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2483–2501, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2483-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2483-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We considered the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi) to analyse the occurrence of extreme torrential episodes (≥ 200 mm in 24 h) over Catalonia (NE Iberia) during the 1951–2016 period. Principal results reveal the occurrence of 50 episodes, mainly in autumn, especially during the second 10 d period of October (11–20), coinciding with the most negative WeMOi values of the year. Seasonal changes in these episodes and in WeMOi values might be due to sea warming.
Leah Hayward, Malcolm Whitworth, Nick Pepin, and Steve Dorling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2463–2482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2463-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2463-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This review article outlines the state of thunderstorm climatologies, which are underrepresented in the literature. Thunderstorms overlap with lightning and intense precipitation events, both of which create important hazards. This article compiles and evaluates information on datasets, research approaches and methodologies used in quantifying thunderstorm distribution, providing an introduction to the topic and signposting new and established researchers to research articles and datasets.
Joan Gilabert, Anna Deluca, Dirk Lauwaet, Joan Ballester, Jordi Corbera, and Maria Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-240, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Raphaël Cécé, Didier Bernard, Yann Krien, Frédéric Leone, Thomas Candela, Matthieu Péroche, Emmanuel Biabiany, Gael Arnaud, Ali Belmadani, Philippe Palany, and Narcisse Zahibo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-241, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-241, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The present innovative modeling aims at combining the most realistic simulated strongest gusts driven by tornado-scale vortices within the eyewall and the most realistic complex terrain effects. The present modeling method could be easily extended to other small mountainous islands to improve the understanding of observed past damages and to develop safer urban management and appropriate building standards.
Xian Luo, Xuemei Fan, Yungang Li, and Xuan Ji
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2243–2254, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2243-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2243-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we corrected Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) in the Yarlung Tsangpo–Brahmaputra River Basin using both linear and nonlinear methods, and their influences on resulting extreme precipitation indices were assessed. Results showed that all methods were able to correct mean precipitation, but their ability to correct wet-day frequency and coefficient of variation were markedly different.
Milica M. Pecelj, Milica Z. Lukić, Dejan J. Filipović, Branko M. Protić, and Uroš M. Bogdanović
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2021–2036, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2021-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2021-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The variation in UTCI heat stress grade was observed during heat waves over the past 20 years in order to identify patterns of biothermal heat stress conditions in Serbia.
Very strong heat stressdescribes an alarming biothermal state and has occurred frequently in the last 10 years. The findings indicate the UTCI14 h index
very strong heat stress event(VSHSE) as an indicator of biothermal heat hazard.
Deanna Nash and Leila M. V. Carvalho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1931–1940, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1931-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1931-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
On 6 March 2019, during an atmospheric river (AR) event, over 8000 lightning flashes were recorded near southern California in under 24 h, resulting in a unique meteorological event for this region. This study examines the characteristics of this AR compared to previous landfalling ARs in Santa Barbara and explores how the conditions led to the formation of hail and enhanced electrification in a region that sees little to no lightning.
Kuo Li and Gyilbag Amatus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1889–1901, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1889-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1889-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, heat waves have become more frequent in the world, e.g., in Europe, Australia, China and the US, at huge detriment to human health and natural resources. Thus we establish an integrated index of heat waves and extreme-temperature days to provide unified standards for assessing heat waves and hot years. It provides a clear picture of the evolution and spatial distribution of heat waves and hot years in China.
Michael Kunz, Jan Wandel, Elody Fluck, Sven Baumstark, Susanna Mohr, and Sebastian Schemm
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1867–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Severe convective storms are major loss drivers across Europe. We reconstructed several thousand storm tracks from radar reflectivity over a 10-year period for parts of Europe. The tracks were additionally combined with hail reports, reanalysis data, and front detections based on ERA-Interim (ECMWF Reanalysis). It is found that frontal hailstorms on average produce larger hailstones and have longer tracks and that wind shear is important not only for the hail diameter but also for track length.
Shunya Koseki, Priscilla A. Mooney, William Cabos, Miguel Ángel Gaertner, Alba de la Vara, and Juan Jesus Gonzáles Alemán
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-187, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-187, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, Ketil Isaksen, Jens Kristian Steen Jacobsen, and Irene Brox Nilsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1847–1865, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1847-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1847-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We have studied changes in winter weather known to trigger road closures and isolation of small seaside communities in northern Norway. We find that snow amounts and heavy snowfall events have increased in the past, while future projections for 2040–2100 show a decrease in snow-related indices. Events of heavy water supply and zero crossings are expected to increase. Our results imply fewer dry-snow-related access disruptions in the future, while wet-snow avalanches and slushflows may increase.
Rogert Sorí, Marta Vázquez, Milica Stojanovic, Raquel Nieto, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and Luis Gimeno
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1805–1832, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1805-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1805-2020, 2020
Linda van Garderen, Frauke Feser, and Theodore G. Shepherd
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-188, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-188, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The storyline approach to extreme event attribution takes the event as given (and mainly due to weather variability) and asks how it was affected by known aspects of climate change. We show how this approach can be implemented within a global climate model, illustrated by application to the European 2003 and Russian 2010 heatwaves which show that such a conditional attribution features a high signal-to-noise ratio on daily timescales and at local spatial scales.
Emanuele Bevacqua, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1765–1782, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1765-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal compound flooding (CF), caused by interacting storm surges and high water runoff, is typically studied based on concurring storm surge extremes with either precipitation or river discharge extremes. Globally, these two approaches show similar CF spatial patterns, especially where the CF potential is the highest. Deviations between the two approaches increase with the catchment size. The precipitation-based analysis allows for considering
local-rainfall-driven CF and CF in small rivers.
Genshen Fang, Lin Zhao, Shuyang Cao, Ledong Zhu, and Yaojun Ge
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1617–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1617-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1617-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal regions of China feature high population densities as well as flexible structures and are therefore vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC) damage. A TC is a moving rotating storm with a small occurrence rate at a specific site. Wind anemometers are usually damaged during strong typhoon events, making the record of observed winds an unreliable predictor for design wind speed. This study uses the Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the typhoon wind hazards in coastal regions of China.
Oriol Rodríguez, Joan Bech, Juan de Dios Soriano, Delia Gutiérrez, and Salvador Castán
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1513–1531, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1513-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1513-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Post-event damage assessment data are used to study the consequences of natural hazards, such as strong convective winds (i.e. tornadoes, downbursts). The information gathered during fieldwork can be used to characterize those events, which is necessary to build up and maintain robust and homogeneous databases of severe weather cases and high-impact weather events. Accordingly, a methodology to carry out damage surveys of strong-convective-wind events is presented in this article.
Christina Kagkara, Wolfram Wobrock, Céline Planche, and Andrea I. Flossmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1469–1483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1469-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1469-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Over the Cévennes–Vivarais region in southern France, 5 h intensive rainfall covering an area of 1000 km2 with more than 50 mm rain accumulation was observed during IOP7a of HyMeX. This study evaluates the performance of a bin-resolved cloud model for simulating this heavy-precipitation event. The simulation results were compared with observations of rain accumulation, radar reflectivity, temporal and spatial evolution of precipitation, 5 min rain rates, and raindrop size distributions.
Diego Cerrai, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Marika Koukoula, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1463–1468, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1463-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1463-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
On 1 September 2019 Hurricane Dorian made landfall on Great Abaco, unleashing unprecedented destruction on the northern Bahamas. Dorian was characterized by extreme winds, extensive coastal flooding, and impressive precipitation. We studied the event through images acquired by the synthetic aperture radars (SARs) mounted on European Space Agency satellites to derive flooding maps showing the extent of the devastation. We found that the flooded area in the Bahamas was at least 3000 km2.
Nadia Fourrié, Mathieu Nuret, Pierre Brousseau, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-153, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-153, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Impact of assimilation of various observation data set on the forecasts is studied in a mesoscale weather model. The ground-based GNSS Zenithal Total Delay data set providing information on humidity has the largest impact on the analyses and the forecasts. Indeed it represents an evenly spread and frequent data set available at each analysis time over the model domain. Moreover, the reprocessing of these data also improves the forecast quality but this impact is not statistically significant.
Matteo Ponzano, Bruno Joly, Laurent Descamps, and Philippe Arbogast
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1369–1389, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1369-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1369-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We assess a methodology to evaluate and improve intense precipitation forecasting in the southeastern French region. This methodology is based on the use of a 30-year dataset of past forecasts which are analysed using a spatial verification approach. We found that precipitation forecasting is qualitatively driven by the deep-convection parametrization. Locally the model is able to reproduce the distribution of spatially integrated rainfall patterns of the most intense precipitation.
Christoph P. Gatzen, Andreas H. Fink, David M. Schultz, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1335–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Derechos are widespread, convectively induced severe wind events. A climatology of derechos in Germany is presented. It shows that derechos are not uncommon across the country. Two seasonal peaks indicate a comparable derecho risk in summer and winter. At the same time, we found two different derecho types, a warm- and a cold-season type. We present characteristics of both derecho types that can help forecasters to estimate the potential derecho threat in a given weather situation.
David MacLeod, Mary Kilavi, Emmah Mwangi, Maurine Ambani, Joanne Robbins, Richard Graham, Pedram Rowhani, and Martin C. Todd
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-122, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-122, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasts of natural hazards save lives. But the accuracy of forecasts must be evaluated before use.
Here we evaluate Heavy Rainfall Advisories over Kenya. We assess their ability to anticipate heavy rainfall, and show how well they warned of recent floods which had significant impacts.
We find that although they effectively warn of heavy rainfall and flooding, issues such as a lack of spatial detail limit their utility for systematic approaches to preparedness.
Marco Tedesco, Steven McAlpine, and Jeremy R. Porter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 907–920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-907-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-907-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Quantifying the exposure of house property to extreme weather events is crucial to study their impact on economy. Here, we show that value of property exposed to Hurricane Florence in September 2018 was USD 52 billion vs. USD 10 billion that would have occurred at the beginning of the 19th century due to urban expansion that increased after 1950s and the increasing number of houses built near water, showing the importance of accounting for the distribution of new buildings in risk and exposure.
James M. Done, Ming Ge, Greg J. Holland, Ioana Dima-West, Samuel Phibbs, Geoffrey R. Saville, and Yuqing Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 567–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-567-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-567-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing tropical cyclone (TC) wind risk is challenging due to a lack of historical TC wind data. This paper presents a novel approach to simulating landfalling TC winds anywhere on Earth. It captures local features such as high winds over coastal hills and lulls over rough terrain. A dataset of over 700 global historical wind footprints has been generated to provide new views of historical events. This dataset can be used to advance our understanding of overland TC wind risk.
Omar Roberto Valverde-Arias, Paloma Esteve, Ana María Tarquis, and Alberto Garrido
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 345–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-345-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-345-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We designed an index-based insurance (IBI) for drought and flood in rice crops in Babahoyo (Ecuador). We assessed Babahoyo's soil, climatic and topographic variability, finding two homogeneous zones inside this area. We set differentiated insurance premiums according to the particular risk status of each zone. Results demonstrate that this IBI is an efficient risk transfer tool for policyholders. This insurance design could contribute to stabilizing farmers' incomes and rice production.
Marc Mandement and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 299–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-299-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The number of connected personal weather stations has dramatically increased in the last years. These weather stations produce a high number of data that need a thorough quality control to unleash their potential. A novel quality-control algorithm now allows us to take full advantage of these data and observe thunderstorms with fine-scale details that cannot be caught by standard networks. These results pave the way for tremendous advances in both understanding and forecasting thunderstorms.
Doug Richardson, Hayley J. Fowler, Christopher G. Kilsby, Robert Neal, and Rutger Dankers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 107–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-107-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-107-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Models are not particularly skilful at forecasting rainfall more than 15 d in advance. However, they are often better at predicting atmospheric variables such as mean sea-level pressure (MSLP). Comparing a range of models, we show that UK winter and autumn rainfall and drought prediction skill can be improved by utilising forecasts of MSLP-based weather patterns (WPs) and subsequently estimating rainfall using the historical WP–precipitation relationships.
Peter Stucki, Paul Froidevaux, Marcelo Zamuriano, Francesco Alessandro Isotta, Martina Messmer, and Andrey Martynov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 35–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-35-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-35-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In 1876, 1910, and 2005, Switzerland was impacted by extreme rainfall and floods. All events were linked to a Vb cyclone. We test a range of weather model setups (short spinup and standard physics are best) to understand the sensitivity of atmospheric dynamics. The simulated Vb cyclones are (not) well defined for 2005 and 1910 (1876). To reproduce the events, intense moisture flux from the right direction is needed. Storms that slightly deviate from an ideal path produce erroneous precipitation.
Maria Cortès, Marco Turco, Philip Ward, Josep A. Sánchez-Espigares, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Maria Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2855–2877, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2855-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2855-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The main objective of this paper is to estimate changes in the probability of damaging flood events with global warming of 1.5, 2 and 3 °C above pre-industrial levels and taking into account different socioeconomic scenarios in two western Mediterranean regions. The results show a general increase in the probability of a damaging event, with larger increments when higher warming is considered. Moreover, this increase is higher when both climate and population change are included.
Andreia F. S. Ribeiro, Ana Russo, Célia M. Gouveia, Patrícia Páscoa, and Carlos A. L. Pires
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2795–2809, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2795-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2795-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This work investigates the dependence between drought hazard and yield anomalies of rainfed cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula using the copula theory. The applied methodology allows us to estimate the likelihood of wheat and barley loss under drought conditions, and a dependence among extreme values is suggested. From the decision-making point of view this study aims to contribute to the mitigation of drought-related crop failure.
Yoav Yair, Yifat Yair, Baruch Rubin, Ronit Confino-Cohen, Yosef Rosman, Eduardo Shachar, and Menachem Rottem
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2715–2725, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2715-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2715-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
During severe thunderstorms, cold outflows can eject pollen and dust particles from the surface, releasing allergens and causing
thunderstorm asthmaepidemics in sensitive populations. We report the first case in Israel that occurred on 25 October 2015. The emergency room presentation records from three hospitals in central Israel showed a clear increase in patients with respiratory complaints immediately after the passage of a massive super-cell thunderstorm in the area.
Carlos D. Hoyos, Lina I. Ceballos, Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla, Julián Sepúlveda, Silvana M. López-Zapata, Manuel D. Zuluaga, Nicolás Velásquez, Laura Herrera-Mejía, Olver Hernández, Gisel Guzmán-Echavarría, and Mauricio Zapata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2635–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2635-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2635-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
On the morning of 18 May 2015, a flash flood in the La Liboriana river basin inundated the town of Salgar, killing more than 100 people. The ultimate goal of science, regarding risk management, is to be able to reduce the number of people affected by severe storms. Our goal is to identify the meteorological conditions that led to the flood, assess the characteristics of the rainfall events before the disaster, and identify lessons for vulnerable regions settled in complex terrains.
Kees Nederhoff, Alessio Giardino, Maarten van Ormondt, and Deepak Vatvani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2359–2370, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2359-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2359-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclone wind models are often used in engineering applications. However, these models lack the required accuracy when the size of the tropical cyclone is not known. In this paper, new relationships are derived to describe parameters affecting the size. These relationships are formulated using observed data and make it possible to estimate tropical cyclone size and to use this information in tropical cyclone wind models to obtain more reliable estimates of the tropical cyclone winds.
Yongqiang Liu, Lu Hao, Decheng Zhou, Cen Pan, Peilong Liu, Zhe Xiong, and Ge Sun
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2281–2294, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2281-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2281-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A transition zone often exists between a moist upper river reach and an arid lower reach in a watershed with complex topography. This zone is more suitable for human activities but is difficult to identify in climate classification. We found that a hydrological index overpowers a meteorological index in identifying a transition zone of a watershed in northwestern China, indicating the important role of the land-surface processes and human disturbances in formulating the transition zone.
Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Elenio Avolio, Olivier Caumont, Mario Montopoli, Luca Baldini, Gianfranco Vulpiani, and Stefano Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1839–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows the possibility to improve the weather forecast at the very short range (0–3 h) using lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations. We consider two challenging events that occurred over Italy, named Serrano and Livorno, characterized by moderate and exceptional rainfall, respectively.
The improvement given to the forecast by using the lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations is considerable. The best performance is obtained when using both data.
Pauline Rivoire, Yves Tramblay, Luc Neppel, Elke Hertig, and Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1629–1638, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1629-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1629-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In order to define a dry period, a threshold for wet days is usually considered to account for measurement errors and evaporation. In the present study, we compare the threshold of 1 mm d−1, the most commonly used threshold, to a time-varying threshold describing evapotranspiration to compare how the risk of extreme dry spells is estimated with both thresholds. Results indicate that considering a fixed threshold can underestimate extreme dry spells during the extended summer.
Mien-Tze Kueh, Wen-Mei Chen, Yang-Fan Sheng, Simon C. Lin, Tso-Ren Wu, Eric Yen, Yu-Lin Tsai, and Chuan-Yao Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1509–1539, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1509-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1509-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we show that both the model horizontal resolution and air–sea flux parameterization can exert a large influence on tropical cyclone intensity simulation but with different impacts on wind structures. We highlight the intensification and contraction of the TC eyewall in response to the reduction of grid spacing. We also suggest that a well-developed eyewall is more conducive to the positive effect of flux formulas on TC development.
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Buda Su, Yanjun Wang, Guojie Wang, Guofu Wang, Jinlong Huang, and Tong Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1319–1328, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1319-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1319-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Considering flood risk composed of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability from global to local scales, this paper reviews and presents increasing observed flood losses and projections of flood hazard and losses. We acknowledge existence of multiple driving factors and of considerable uncertainty, in particular with regards to projections for the future. Finally, this paper analyses options for flood risk reduction from a global framework to regional and local scales.
Sorin Burcea, Roxana Cică, and Roxana Bojariu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1305–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1305-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1305-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The mapping of convective storms in the area of the transboundary Prut River basin was developed using a 15-year radar dataset (2003–2017). The analysis is based on data sampled in successive 6 min scans of the atmosphere, to detect and track the convective storms. The results highlighted a yearly, monthly, and daily variation of convective activity but also spatial distribution patterns. The study of atmospheric convection is important in assessing the risks associated with extreme weather.
Marina Peña-Gallardo, Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, and Santiago Beguería
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1215–1234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1215-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1215-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Drought events are of great importance in most Mediterranean climate regions, and the impacts caused on rainfed crops are particularly evident. In this study the impacts of drought on two representative rainfed crops in Spain (wheat and barley) are assessed by testing various worldwide drought indices and two datasets at different spatial resolution.
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Natalia Martín-Hernández, Santiago Beguería, Ahmed El Kenawy, Iván Noguera, and Mónica García
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1189–1213, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1189-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a major driver of vegetation activity in Spain. Here we used a high-resolution remote-sensing dataset spanning the period from 1981 to 2015 to assess the sensitivity of 23 vegetation types to drought across Spain. Results demonstrate that vegetation activity is controlled largely by the interannual variability of drought. Nevertheless, there are some considerable spatio-temporal variations, which can be linked to differences in land cover and aridity conditions.
Alfredo Rodríguez, David Pérez-López, Enrique Sánchez, Ana Centeno, Iñigo Gómara, Alessandro Dosio, and Margarita Ruiz-Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1087–1103, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1087-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1087-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Growing trees are vulnerable to cold temperatures. Fruit trees stop their growth during the coldest months of the year until meeting a required cold accumulation, specific for each tree species and variety. Under global warming, a reduction in cold accumulation in Spain is projected. This threatens the viability of some current tree crops and varieties in some areas, but other varieties with less requirements can be used. Our results allow adaptation of tree plantations to climate change.
Frank Colberg, Kathleen L. McInnes, Julian O'Grady, and Ron Hoeke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1067–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1067-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1067-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates coastal sea level variability and extremes
around Australia, taking into account historical conditions and future
atmospheric changes. Modelling suggests changes in future extreme sea levels may occur. A southward movement of the subtropical ridge leads to reduced sea level extremes in many areas, while changes over the Gulf of Carpentaria are largest and positive during austral summer in two of four simulations, likely associated with changes in the northwest monsoon.
Luca Mathias, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1023–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Convective systems producing severe winds occasionally affect Europe during wintertime and the majority of these storms develop along well-defined cold fronts of extratropical cyclones. However, on 3 January 2014, a storm formed in a postfrontal air mass over western Europe. This study analyses the prevailing environmental conditions and the predictability of this storm. Our results reveal the difficulty of forecasting cold-season convective storms when they are not associated with a cold front.
Peter Berg, Ole B. Christensen, Katharina Klehmet, Geert Lenderink, Jonas Olsson, Claas Teichmann, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 957–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A state-of-the-art regional climate model ensemble for Europe is investigated for extreme precipitation intensities. The models poorly reproduce short duration events of less than a few hours. Further, there is poor connection to some known hotspots for extreme cases. The model performance is much improved at 12 h durations. Projected future increases scale with seasonal mean temperature change, within a range from a few percent to over 10 percent per degree Celsius.
Robin Noyelle, Uwe Ulbrich, Nico Becker, and Edmund P. Meredith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 941–955, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-941-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-941-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates the formation of the Mediterranean hurricane that developed between Balearic Islands and Sardinia in October 1996, with a particular focus on the influence of sea surface temperature. We show that increased sea surface temperatures lead to greater probabilities of appearance and a greater strength of the resulting hurricane, suggesting that the processes for Mediterranean hurricanes at steady state are very similar to tropical cyclones.
Cited articles
Analitis, A., Michelozzi, P., D'Ippoliti, D., De'Donato, F., Menne, B.,
Matthies, F., Atkinson, R. W., Iñiguez, C., Basagaña, X., Schneider, A.,
Lefranc, A., Paldy, A., Bisanti, L., and Katsouyanni, K.: Effects of Heat
Waves on Mortality, Epidemiology, 25, 15–22,
https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e31828ac01b, 2014. a, b
Analitis, A., de' Donato, F., Scortichini, M., Lanki, T., Basagana, X.,
Ballester, F., Astrom, C., Paldy, A., Pascal, M., Gasparrini, A., Michelozzi,
P., and Katsouyanni, K.: Synergistic Effects of Ambient Temperature and
Air Pollution on Health in Europe: Results from the PHASE
Project, Int. J. Env. Res. Pub. He., 15, 1856,
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15091856, 2018. a, b, c, d, e
an der Heiden, M., Muthers, S., Niemann, H., Buchholz, U., Grabenhenrich, L.,
and Matzarakis, A.: Schätzung hitzebedingter Todesfälle in Deutschland
zwischen 2001 und 2015, Bundesgesundheitsblatt, 62, 571–579,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00103-019-02932-y, 2019. a
Anderson, B. G. and Bell, M. L.: Weather-Related Mortality: How Heat,
Cold, and Heat Waves Affect Mortality in the United States,
Epidemiology, 20, 205–213, https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e318190ee08, 2009. a, b, c, d
Atkinson, R. W., Yu, D., Armstrong, B. G., Pattenden, S., Wilkinson, P.,
Doherty, R. M., Heal, M. R., and Anderson, H. R.: Concentration–Response
Function for Ozone and Daily Mortality: Results from Five Urban
and Five Rural U.K. Populations, Environ. Health Perspect., 120,
1411–1417, https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1104108, 2012. a
Baccini, M., Kosatsky, T., Analitis, A., Anderson, H. R., D'Ovidio, M., Menne,
B., Michelozzi, P., Biggeri, A., and the PHEWE Collaborative Group: Impact
of heat on mortality in 15 European cities: attributable deaths under
different weather scenarios, J. Epidemiol. Commun. H., 65, 64–70,
https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.2008.085639, 2011. a, b
Bae, S., Lim, Y.-H., Kashima, S., Yorifuji, T., Honda, Y., Kim, H., and Hong,
Y.-C.: Non-Linear Concentration-Response Relationships between
Ambient Ozone and Daily Mortality, PLoS One, 10, e0129423,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0129423, 2015. a
Bassil, K. L., Cole, D. C., Moineddin, R., Craig, A. M., Wendy Lou, W.,
Schwartz, B., and Rea, E.: Temporal and spatial variation of heat-related
illness using 911 medical dispatch data, Environ. Res., 109, 600–606,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2009.03.011, 2009. a
Bell, M. L.: Ozone and Short-term Mortality in 95 US Urban
Communities, 1987-2000, JAMA, J. Am. Med. Assoc., 292, 2372–2378,
https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.292.19.2372, 2004. a
Benmarhnia, T., Deguen, S., Kaufman, J. S., and Smargiassi, A.: Review
Article: Vulnerability to Heat-related Mortality, Epidemiology, 26,
781–793, https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000000375, 2015. a
Breitner, S., Wolf, K., Devlin, R. B., Diaz-Sanchez, D., Peters, A., and
Schneider, A.: Short-term effects of air temperature on mortality and effect
modification by air pollution in three cities of Bavaria, Germany: A
time-series analysis, Sci. Total Environ., 485–486, 49–61,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.03.048, 2014. a, b, c, d
Burkart, K., Canário, P., Breitner, S., Schneider, A., Scherber, K., Andrade,
H., Alcoforado, M. J., and Endlicher, W.: Interactive short-term effects of
equivalent temperature and air pollution on human mortality in Berlin and
Lisbon, Environ. Pollut., 183, 54–63,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2013.06.002, 2013. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Camalier, L., Cox, W., and Dolwick, P.: The effects of meteorology on ozone in
urban areas and their use in assessing ozone trends, Atmos. Environ., 41,
7127–7137, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2007.04.061, 2007. a
Chen, K., Bi, J., Chen, J., Chen, X., Huang, L., and Zhou, L.: Influence of
heat wave definitions to the added effect of heat waves on daily mortality in
Nanjing, China, Sci. Total Environ., 506–507, 18–25,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.10.092, 2015. a
Cheng, Y. and Kan, H.: Effect of the Interaction Between Outdoor Air
Pollution and Extreme Temperature on Daily Mortality in Shanghai,
China, J. Epidemiol., 22, 28–36, https://doi.org/10.2188/jea.JE20110049,
2012. a
Cleveland, W. S.: Robust Locally Weighted Regression and Smoothing
Scatterplots, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 74, 829–836,
https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10481038, 1979. a
Curriero, F. C., Heiner, K. S., Samet, J. M., Zeger, S. L., Strug, L., and
Patz, J. A.: Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United
States, Am. J. Epidemiol., 155, 80–87, https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/155.1.80, 2002. a
Díaz, J., Ortiz, C., Falcón, I., Salvador, C., and Linares, C.: Short-term
effect of tropospheric ozone on daily mortality in Spain, Atmos. Environ.,
187, 107–116, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.05.059, 2018. a, b
EEA: Elevation map of Europe,
available at: https://www.eea.europa.eu/ds_resolveuid/070F2DAD-1AED-4B9B-950F-0047E5ADDF35
(last access: 27 January 2020), 2016. a
EEA: Unequal exposure and unequal impacts: social vulnerability to air
pollution, noise and extreme temperatures in Europe, EEA Report, 22/2018,
https://doi.org/10.2800/324183, 2019a. a
EEA: Corine Land Cover (CLC) 2018, Version 20,
available at: https://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover/clc2018,
last access: 18 November 2019b. a
Fenner, D., Holtmann, A., Krug, A., and Scherer, D.: Heat waves in Berlin and
Potsdam, Germany – Long‐term trends and comparison of heat wave
definitions from 1893 to 2017, Int. J. Climatol., 39, 2422–2437,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5962, 2019. a
Filleul, L., Cassadou, S., Médina, S., Fabres, P., Lefranc, A., Eilstein, D.,
Le Tertre, A., Pascal, L., Chardon, B., Blanchard, M., Declercq, C., Jusot,
J.-F., Prouvost, H., and Ledrans, M.: The Relation Between Temperature,
Ozone, and Mortality in Nine French Cities During the Heat
Wave of 2003, Environ. Health Perspect., 114, 1344–1347,
https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.8328, 2006. a, b
Gabriel, K. M. and Endlicher, W. R.: Urban and rural mortality rates during
heat waves in Berlin and Brandenburg, Germany, Environ. Pollut., 159, 2044–2050, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2011.01.016, 2011. a
Gasparrini, A. and Armstrong, B.: The Impact of Heat Waves on
Mortality, Epidemiology, 22, 68–73, https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181fdcd99,
2011. a
Gasparrini, A., Guo, Y., Hashizume, M., Lavigne, E., Zanobetti, A., Schwartz,
J., Tobias, A., Tong, S., Rocklöv, J., Forsberg, B., Leone, M., De Sario,
M., Bell, M. L., Guo, Y.-L. L., Wu, C.-f., Kan, H., Yi, S.-M., de Sousa
Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M., Saldiva, P. H. N., Honda, Y., Kim, H., and
Armstrong, B.: Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient
temperature: a multicountry observational study, Lancet, 386, 369–375,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0, 2015. a
Hajat, S., Armstrong, B., Baccini, M., Biggeri, A., Bisanti, L., Russo, A.,
Paldy, A., Menne, B., and Kosatsky, T.: Impact of High Temperatures on
Mortality, Epidemiology, 17, 632–638,
https://doi.org/10.1097/01.ede.0000239688.70829.63, 2006. a
Hůnová, I., Malý, M., Řezáčová, J., and Braniš, M.: Association between
ambient ozone and health outcomes in Prague, Int. Arch. Occup. Environ.
Health, 86, 89–97, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00420-012-0751-y, 2013. a
IPCC: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups
I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited
by: Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F., Qin, D.,
Dokken, D. J., Ebi, K. L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J.,
Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M., and
Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA,
582 pp., 2012. a
Jänicke, B., Holtmann, A., Kim, K. R., Kang, M., Fehrenbach, U., and Scherer,
D.: Quantification and evaluation of intra-urban heat-stress variability in
Seoul, Korea, Int. J. Biometeorol., 63, 1–12,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-018-1631-2, 2018. a
Kalisa, E., Fadlallah, S., Amani, M., Nahayo, L., and Habiyaremye, G.:
Temperature and air pollution relationship during heatwaves in Birmingham,
UK, Sustain. Cities Soc., 43, 111–120, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2018.08.033,
publisher: Elsevier, 2018. a
Karlsson, M. and Ziebarth, N. R.: Population health effects and health-related
costs of extreme temperatures: Comprehensive evidence from Germany, J.
Environ. Econ. Manag., 91, 93–117, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2018.06.004, 2018. a
Monks, P. S.: A review of the observations and origins of the spring ozone
maximum, Atmos. Environ., 34, 3545–3561,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1352-2310(00)00129-1, 2000. a
Muthers, S., Laschewski, G., and Matzarakis, A.: The Summers 2003 and 2015 in
South-West Germany: Heat Waves and Heat-Related Mortality in
the Context of Climate Change, Atmosphere, 8, 224,
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8110224, 2017. a
Otero, N., Sillmann, J., Schnell, J. L., Rust, H. W., and Butler, T.: Synoptic
and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe,
Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 024005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024005, 2016. a
Phalitnonkiat, P., Hess, P. G. M., Grigoriu, M. D., Samorodnitsky, G., Sun, W., Beaudry, E., Tilmes, S., Deushi, M., Josse, B., Plummer, D., and Sudo, K.: Extremal dependence between temperature and ozone over the continental US, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 11927–11948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-11927-2018, 2018. a, b
Powell, H., Lee, D., and Bowman, A.: Estimating constrained
concentration-response functions between air pollution and health,
Environmetrics, 23, 228–237, https://doi.org/10.1002/env.1150, 2012. a
Scherer, D., Fehrenbach, U., Lakes, T., Lauf, S., Meier, F., and Schuster, C.:
Quantification of heat-Stress related mortality hazard, vulnerability and
risk in Berlin, Germany, Die Erde, 144, 238–259,
https://doi.org/10.12854/erde-144-17, 2013. a, b, c, d
Shen, L., Mickley, L. J., and Gilleland, E.: Impact of increasing heat waves on
U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multimodel analysis
using extreme value theory, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 4017–4025,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068432, 2016. a, b, c
Stafoggia, M., Forastiere, F., Agostini, D., Biggeri, A., Bisanti, L., Cadum,
E., Caranci, N., de'Donato, F., De Lisio, S., De Maria, M., Michelozzi, P.,
Miglio, R., Pandolfi, P., Picciotto, S., Rognoni, M., Russo, A., Scarnato,
C., and Perucci, C. A.: Vulnerability to Heat-Related Mortality: A
Multicity, Population-Based, Case-Crossover Analysis,
Epidemiology, 17, 315–323, https://doi.org/10.1097/01.ede.0000208477.36665.34, 2006. a
Steiner, A. L., Davis, A. J., Sillman, S., Owen, R. C., Michalak, A. M., and
Fiore, A. M.: Observed suppression of ozone formation at extremely high
temperatures due to chemical and biophysical feedbacks, P. Natl. Acad.
Sci. USA, 107, 19685–19690, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1008336107, 2010. a, b, c
Tai, A. P., Mickley, L. J., and Jacob, D. J.: Correlations between fine
particulate matter (PM2.5) and meteorological variables in the United
States: Implications for the sensitivity of PM2.5 to climate change,
Atmos. Environ., 44, 3976–3984, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.06.060, 2010. a
Tong, S., FitzGerald, G., Wang, X.-Y., Aitken, P., Tippett, V., Chen, D., Wang,
X., and Guo, Y.: Exploration of the health risk-based definition for
heatwave: A multi-city study, Environ. Res., 142, 696–702,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2015.09.009, 2015.
a, b, c, d
Vaneckova, P., Neville, G., Tippett, V., Aitken, P., FitzGerald, G., and Tong,
S.: Do Biometeorological Indices Improve Modeling Outcomes of
Heat-Related Mortality?, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 50, 1165–1176,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JAMC2632.1, 2011. a
Vanos, J. K., Cakmak, S., Kalkstein, L. S., and Yagouti, A.: Association of
weather and air pollution interactions on daily mortality in 12 Canadian
cities, Air Qual., Atmos. Health, 8, 307–320,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-014-0266-7, 2015. a, b
Varotsos, K. V., Giannakopoulos, C., and Tombrou, M.: Ozone-temperature
relationship during the 2003 and 2014 heatwaves in Europe, Reg. Environ.
Change, 19, 1653–1665, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01498-4, 2019. a
Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., Sera, F., Liu, C., Armstrong, B., Milojevic, A., Guo,
Y., Tong, S., Lavigne, E., Kyselý, J., Urban, A., Orru, H., Indermitte, E.,
Pascal, M., Huber, V., Schneider, A., Katsouyanni, K., Samoli, E., Stafoggia,
M., Scortichini, M., Hashizume, M., Honda, Y., Ng, C. F. S., Hurtado-Diaz,
M., Cruz, J., Silva, S., Madureira, J., Scovronick, N., Garland, R. M., Kim,
H., Tobias, A., Íñiguez, C., Forsberg, B., Åström, C., Ragettli, M. S.,
Röösli, M., Guo, Y.-L. L., Chen, B.-Y., Zanobetti, A., Schwartz, J., Bell,
M. L., Kan, H., and Gasparrini, A.: Short term association between ozone and
mortality: global two stage time series study in 406 locations in 20
countries, BMJ Brit. Med. J., 368, m108, https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m108, 2020. a
Yu, W., Vaneckova, P., Mengersen, K., Pan, X., and Tong, S.: Is the association
between temperature and mortality modified by age, gender and socio-economic
status?, Sci. Total Environ., 408, 3513–3518,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.04.058, 2010. a, b
Zhang, H., Wang, Y., Park, T.-W., and Deng, Y.: Quantifying the relationship
between extreme air pollution events and extreme weather events, Atmos. Res.,
188, 64–79, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.11.010, 2017. a
Search articles
Download
Short summary
This study investigates hot weather episodes in eight German cities which are statistically associated with increased mortality. Besides air temperature, ozone concentrations partly explain these mortality rates. The strength of the respective contributions of the two stressors varies across the cities. Results highlight that during hot weather episodes, not only high air temperature affects urban populations; concurrently high ozone concentrations also play an important role in public health.
This study investigates hot weather episodes in eight German cities which are statistically...
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
All site content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.