Articles | Volume 20, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2591-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2591-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Oct 2020
Research article |
| 05 Oct 2020
| 05 Oct 2020
Challenges in flood modeling over data-scarce regions: how to exploit globally available soil moisture products to estimate antecedent soil wetness conditions in Morocco
El Mahdi El Khalki
Georesources, Geoenvironment and Civil Engineering Laboratory, Cadi
Ayyad University, Marrakesh, 40000, Morocco
HydroSciences Montpellier (Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, IRD),
Montpellier, 34000, France
Christian Massari
Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, National Research Council, Perugia, 06100, Italy
Luca Brocca
Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, National Research Council, Perugia, 06100, Italy
Vincent Simonneaux
Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphère (UPS/CNRS/IRD/CNES),
Toulouse, 31401, France
Simon Gascoin
Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphère (UPS/CNRS/IRD/CNES),
Toulouse, 31401, France
Mohamed El Mehdi Saidi
Georesources, Geoenvironment and Civil Engineering Laboratory, Cadi
Ayyad University, Marrakesh, 40000, Morocco
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2604, 2023
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Our study addresses the complex challenge of evaluating distributed alpine snow simulations by disentangling error contributions between blowing snow, precipitation forcings and unresolved subgrid variability. We evaluated simulated snow cover against snow depths from Pléiades stereo-imagery and Snow Melt-Out Dates from Sentinel 2. The simulation of snow transport enhances the snow spatial variance at high elevations while precipitation biases are the prevailing error source in other areas.
Jacopo Dari, Paolo Filippucci, and Luca Brocca
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2479, 2023
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We have developed the first operational system (10-day latency) for estimating irrigation water use from accessible satellite and reanalysis data. As a proof of concept, the method has been implemented over an irrigated area fed by the Kakhovka reservoir, in Ukraine, collapsed on June 6, 2023. Estimates in the period 2015–2023 reveal that, as expected, the irrigation season of 2023 was characterized by the lowest amounts.
Laurent Strohmenger, Eric Sauquet, Claire Bernard, Jérémie Bonneau, Flora Branger, Amélie Bresson, Pierre Brigode, Rémy Buzier, Olivier Delaigue, Alexandre Devers, Guillaume Evin, Maïté Fournier, Shu-Chen Hsu, Sandra Lanini, Alban de Lavenne, Thibault Lemaitre-Basset, Claire Magand, Guilherme Mendoza Guimarães, Max Mentha, Simon Munier, Charles Perrin, Tristan Podechard, Léo Rouchy, Malak Sadki, Myriam Soutif-Bellenger, François Tilmant, Yves Tramblay, Anne-Lise Véron, Jean-Philippe Vidal, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3375-2023, 2023
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We present the results of a large visual inspection campaign of 674 streamflow time series in France. The objective was to detect non-natural records resulting from instrument failure or anthropogenic influences, such as hydroelectric power generation or reservoir management. We conclude that the identification of flaws in flow time series is highly dependent on the objectives and skills of individual evaluators, and we raise the need for better practices for data cleaning.
Esteban Alonso-González, Simon Gascoin, Sara Arioli, and Ghislain Picard
The Cryosphere, 17, 3329–3342, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3329-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3329-2023, 2023
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Data assimilation techniques are a promising approach to improve snowpack simulations in remote areas that are difficult to monitor. This paper studies the ability of satellite-observed land surface temperature to improve snowpack simulations through data assimilation. We show that it is possible to improve snowpack simulations, but the temporal resolution of the observations and the algorithm used are critical to obtain satisfactory results.
Yves Tramblay, Patrick Arnaud, Guillaume Artigue, Michel Lang, Emmanuel Paquet, Luc Neppel, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2973–2987, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2973-2023, 2023
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Mediterranean floods are causing major damage, and recent studies have shown that, despite the increase in intense rainfall, there has been no increase in river floods. This study reveals that the seasonality of floods changed in the Mediterranean Basin during 1959–2021. There was also an increased frequency of floods linked to short episodes of intense rain, associated with a decrease in soil moisture. These changes need to be taken into consideration to adapt flood warning systems.
Esteban Alonso-González, Kristoffer Aalstad, Norbert Pirk, Marco Mazzolini, Désirée Treichler, Paul Leclercq, Sebastian Westermann, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, and Simon Gascoin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-954, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-954, 2023
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Despite its importance, monitoring the snowpack is difficult. Here we explore how to improve hyper-resolution (5m) distributed snowpack simulations using sparse observations, which do not provide information from all the areas of the simulation domain. We propose a new way of propagating information throughout the simulations adapted to the hyper-resolution, which could also be used to improve simulations of other nature. The method has been implemented in an open source data assimilation tool.
Marie Dumont, Simon Gascoin, Marion Réveillet, Didier Voisin, François Tuzet, Laurent Arnaud, Mylène Bonnefoy, Montse Bacardit Peñarroya, Carlo Carmagnola, Alexandre Deguine, Aurélie Diacre, Lukas Dürr, Olivier Evrard, Firmin Fontaine, Amaury Frankl, Mathieu Fructus, Laure Gandois, Isabelle Gouttevin, Abdelfateh Gherab, Pascal Hagenmuller, Sophia Hansson, Hervé Herbin, Béatrice Josse, Bruno Jourdain, Irene Lefevre, Gaël Le Roux, Quentin Libois, Lucie Liger, Samuel Morin, Denis Petitprez, Alvaro Robledano, Martin Schneebeli, Pascal Salze, Delphine Six, Emmanuel Thibert, Jürg Trachsel, Matthieu Vernay, Léo Viallon-Galinier, and Céline Voiron
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3075–3094, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3075-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3075-2023, 2023
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Saharan dust outbreaks have profound effects on ecosystems, climate, health, and the cryosphere, but the spatial deposition pattern of Saharan dust is poorly known. Following the extreme dust deposition event of February 2021 across Europe, a citizen science campaign was launched to sample dust on snow over the Pyrenees and the European Alps. This campaign triggered wide interest and over 100 samples. The samples revealed the high variability of the dust properties within a single event.
César Deschamps-Berger, Simon Gascoin, David Shean, Hannah Besso, Ambroise Guiot, and Juan Ignacio López-Moreno
The Cryosphere, 17, 2779–2792, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2779-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2779-2023, 2023
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The estimation of the snow depth in mountains is hard, despite the importance of the snowpack for human societies and ecosystems. We measured the snow depth in mountains by comparing the elevation of points measured with snow from the high-precision altimetric satellite ICESat-2 to the elevation without snow from various sources. Snow depths derived only from ICESat-2 were too sparse, but using external airborne/satellite products results in spatially richer and sufficiently precise snow depths.
Søren Julsgaard Kragh, Jacopo Dari, Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Rasmus Fensholt, Simon Stisen, and Julian Koch
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-142, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-142, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
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This study provides a comparison of methodologies to quantify irrigation to enhance regional irrigation estimates. To evaluate the methodologies, we compared various approaches to quantify irrigation using either soil moisture, evapotranspiration, or both within a novel baseline framework, together with irrigation estimates from other studies. We show, that the synergy from using two equally important components in joint approach within a baseline framework, yield better irrigation estimates.
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-82, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS
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A high resolution convection-permitting climate model is coupled with hydrological models over a Mediterranean catchment to simulate historical and future flood events. Results show the added value of this new generation of climate models for simulating Mediterranean floods. Future projections show an increase of the magnitude of the largest floods while the moderate floods are expected to decrease. Most floods are expected to become flashier i.e. potentially catastrophic in a warmer climate.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
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This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River Basin in Summer 2020.
Arthur Bayle, Bradley Z. Carlson, Anaïs Zimmer, Sophie Vallée, Antoine Rabatel, Edoardo Cremonese, Gianluca Filippa, Cédric Dentant, Christophe Randin, Andrea Mainetti, Erwan Roussel, Simon Gascoin, Dov Corenblit, and Philippe Choler
Biogeosciences, 20, 1649–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-1649-2023, 2023
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Glacier forefields have long provided ecologists with a model to study patterns of plant succession following glacier retreat. We used remote sensing approaches to study early succession dynamics as it allows to analyze the deglaciation, colonization, and vegetation growth within a single framework. We found that the heterogeneity of early succession dynamics is deterministic and can be explained well by local environmental context. This work has been done by an international consortium.
Jacopo Dari, Luca Brocca, Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Angelica Tarpanelli, Silvia Barbetta, Raphael Quast, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Vahid Freeman, Anaïs Barella-Ortiz, Pere Quintana-Seguí, David Bretreger, and Espen Volden
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1555–1575, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1555-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1555-2023, 2023
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Irrigation is the main source of global freshwater consumption. Despite this, a detailed knowledge of irrigation dynamics (i.e., timing, extent of irrigated areas, and amounts of water used) are generally lacking worldwide. Satellites represent a useful tool to fill this knowledge gap and monitor irrigation water from space. In this study, three regional-scale and high-resolution (1 and 6 km) products of irrigation amounts estimated by inverting the satellite soil moisture signals are presented.
Kunlong He, Wei Zhao, Luca Brocca, and Pere Quintana-Seguí
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 169–190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-169-2023, 2023
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In this study, we developed a soil moisture-based precipitation downscaling (SMPD) method for spatially downscaling the GPM daily precipitation product by exploiting the connection between surface soil moisture and precipitation according to the soil water balance equation. Based on this physical method, the spatial resolution of the daily precipitation product was downscaled to 1 km and the SMPD method shows good potential for the development of the high-resolution precipitation product.
Esteban Alonso-González, Kristoffer Aalstad, Mohamed Wassim Baba, Jesús Revuelto, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, Joel Fiddes, Richard Essery, and Simon Gascoin
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 9127–9155, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-9127-2022, 2022
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Snow cover plays an important role in many processes, but its monitoring is a challenging task. The alternative is usually to simulate the snowpack, and to improve these simulations one of the most promising options is to fuse simulations with available observations (data assimilation). In this paper we present MuSA, a data assimilation tool which facilitates the implementation of snow monitoring initiatives, allowing the assimilation of a wide variety of remotely sensed snow cover information.
Maximillian Van Wyk de Vries, Shashank Bhushan, Mylène Jacquemart, César Deschamps-Berger, Etienne Berthier, Simon Gascoin, David E. Shean, Dan H. Shugar, and Andreas Kääb
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3309–3327, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022, 2022
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On 7 February 2021, a large rock–ice avalanche occurred in Chamoli, Indian Himalaya. The resulting debris flow swept down the nearby valley, leaving over 200 people dead or missing. We use a range of satellite datasets to investigate how the collapse area changed prior to collapse. We show that signs of instability were visible as early 5 years prior to collapse. However, it would likely not have been possible to predict the timing of the event from current satellite datasets.
Riccardo Rigon, Giuseppe Formetta, Marialaura Bancheri, Niccolò Tubini, Concetta D'Amato, Olaf David, and Christian Massari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4773–4800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4773-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4773-2022, 2022
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The
Digital Earth(DE) metaphor is very useful for both end users and hydrological modelers. We analyse different categories of models, with the view of making them part of a Digital eARth Twin Hydrology system (called DARTH). We also stress the idea that DARTHs are not models in and of themselves, rather they need to be built on an appropriate information technology infrastructure. It is remarked that DARTHs have to, by construction, support the open-science movement and its ideas.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Michel Bechtold, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Luca Brocca, Luca Zappa, and Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4685–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4685-2022, 2022
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Given the crucial impact of irrigation practices on the water cycle, this study aims at estimating irrigation through the development of an innovative data assimilation system able to ingest high-resolution Sentinel-1 radar observations into the Noah-MP land surface model. The developed methodology has important implications for global water resource management and the comprehension of human impacts on the water cycle and identifies main challenges and outlooks for future research.
Stefania Camici, Gabriele Giuliani, Luca Brocca, Christian Massari, Angelica Tarpanelli, Hassan Hashemi Farahani, Nico Sneeuw, Marco Restano, and Jérôme Benveniste
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6935–6956, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6935-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6935-2022, 2022
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This paper presents an innovative approach, STREAM (SaTellite-based Runoff Evaluation And Mapping), to derive daily river discharge and runoff estimates from satellite observations of soil moisture, precipitation, and terrestrial total water storage anomalies. Potentially useful for multiple operational and scientific applications, the added value of the STREAM approach is the ability to increase knowledge on the natural processes, human activities, and their interactions on the land.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Francesco Avanzi, Fabio Delogu, Simone Gabellani, Giulia Bruno, Lorenzo Campo, Andrea Libertino, Christian Massari, Angelica Tarpanelli, Dominik Rains, Diego G. Miralles, Raphael Quast, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Huan Wu, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 3921–3939, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3921-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-3921-2022, 2022
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This work shows advances in high-resolution satellite data for hydrology. We performed hydrological simulations for the Po River basin using various satellite products, including precipitation, evaporation, soil moisture, and snow depth. Evaporation and snow depth improved a simulation based on high-quality ground observations. Interestingly, a model calibration relying on satellite data skillfully reproduces observed discharges, paving the way to satellite-driven hydrological applications.
Shima Azimi, Christian Massari, Giuseppe Formetta, Silvia Barbetta, Alberto Tazioli, Davide Fronzi, Sara Modanesi, Angelica Tarpanelli, and Riccardo Rigon
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-340, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-340, 2022
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We analyzed the water budget of nested karst catchments with simple methods and modelling. Whilst karst pathways are not elusive, we exploit techniques to have information from the available data of precipitation and discharge which result in a reliable determination of the response lag-time. We also modelled snow cover dynamics and evapotranspiration obtaining a parsimonious account of the water budget of the basin and its subbasins. Data, models and workflows has been made available.
Paolo Filippucci, Luca Brocca, Raphael Quast, Luca Ciabatta, Carla Saltalippi, Wolfgang Wagner, and Angelica Tarpanelli
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2481–2497, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2481-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2481-2022, 2022
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A high-resolution (1 km) rainfall product with 10–30 d temporal resolution was obtained starting from SM data from Sentinel-1. Good performances are achieved using observed data (gauge and radar) over the Po River Valley, Italy, as a benchmark. The comparison with a product characterized by lower spatial resolution (25 km) highlights areas where the high spatial resolution of Sentinel-1 has great benefits. Possible applications include water management, agriculture and index-based insurances.
Yves Tramblay and Pere Quintana Seguí
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1325–1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1325-2022, 2022
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Monitoring soil moisture is important during droughts, but very few measurements are available. Consequently, land-surface models are essential tools for reproducing soil moisture dynamics. In this study, a hybrid approach allowed for regionalizing soil water content using a machine learning method. This approach proved to be efficient, compared to the use of soil property maps, to run a simple soil moisture accounting model, and therefore it can be applied in various regions.
Christian Massari, Francesco Avanzi, Giulia Bruno, Simone Gabellani, Daniele Penna, and Stefania Camici
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1527–1543, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1527-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1527-2022, 2022
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Droughts are a creeping disaster, meaning that their onset, duration and recovery are challenging to monitor and forecast. Here, we provide further evidence of an additional challenge of droughts, i.e. the fact that the deficit in water supply during droughts is generally much more than expected based on the observed decline in precipitation. At a European scale we explain this with enhanced evapotranspiration, sustained by higher atmospheric demand for moisture during such dry periods.
Sara Modanesi, Christian Massari, Alexander Gruber, Hans Lievens, Angelica Tarpanelli, Renato Morbidelli, and Gabrielle J. M. De Lannoy
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 6283–6307, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-6283-2021, 2021
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Worldwide, the amount of water used for agricultural purposes is rising and the quantification of irrigation is becoming a crucial topic. Land surface models are not able to correctly simulate irrigation. Remote sensing observations offer an opportunity to fill this gap as they are directly affected by irrigation. We equipped a land surface model with an observation operator able to transform Sentinel-1 backscatter observations into realistic vegetation and soil states via data assimilation.
Wouter Dorigo, Irene Himmelbauer, Daniel Aberer, Lukas Schremmer, Ivana Petrakovic, Luca Zappa, Wolfgang Preimesberger, Angelika Xaver, Frank Annor, Jonas Ardö, Dennis Baldocchi, Marco Bitelli, Günter Blöschl, Heye Bogena, Luca Brocca, Jean-Christophe Calvet, J. Julio Camarero, Giorgio Capello, Minha Choi, Michael C. Cosh, Nick van de Giesen, Istvan Hajdu, Jaakko Ikonen, Karsten H. Jensen, Kasturi Devi Kanniah, Ileen de Kat, Gottfried Kirchengast, Pankaj Kumar Rai, Jenni Kyrouac, Kristine Larson, Suxia Liu, Alexander Loew, Mahta Moghaddam, José Martínez Fernández, Cristian Mattar Bader, Renato Morbidelli, Jan P. Musial, Elise Osenga, Michael A. Palecki, Thierry Pellarin, George P. Petropoulos, Isabella Pfeil, Jarrett Powers, Alan Robock, Christoph Rüdiger, Udo Rummel, Michael Strobel, Zhongbo Su, Ryan Sullivan, Torbern Tagesson, Andrej Varlagin, Mariette Vreugdenhil, Jeffrey Walker, Jun Wen, Fred Wenger, Jean Pierre Wigneron, Mel Woods, Kun Yang, Yijian Zeng, Xiang Zhang, Marek Zreda, Stephan Dietrich, Alexander Gruber, Peter van Oevelen, Wolfgang Wagner, Klaus Scipal, Matthias Drusch, and Roberto Sabia
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5749–5804, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5749-2021, 2021
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The International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) is a community-based open-access data portal for soil water measurements taken at the ground and is accessible at https://ismn.earth. Over 1000 scientific publications and thousands of users have made use of the ISMN. The scope of this paper is to inform readers about the data and functionality of the ISMN and to provide a review of the scientific progress facilitated through the ISMN with the scope to shape future research and operations.
Zacharie Barrou Dumont, Simon Gascoin, Olivier Hagolle, Michaël Ablain, Rémi Jugier, Germain Salgues, Florence Marti, Aurore Dupuis, Marie Dumont, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4975–4980, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4975-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4975-2021, 2021
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Since 2020, the Copernicus High Resolution Snow & Ice Monitoring Service has distributed snow cover maps at 20 m resolution over Europe in near-real time. These products are derived from the Sentinel-2 Earth observation mission, with a revisit time of 5 d or less (cloud-permitting). Here we show the good accuracy of the snow detection over a wide range of regions in Europe, except in dense forest regions where the snow cover is hidden by the trees.
Daniele Masseroni, Stefania Camici, Alessio Cislaghi, Giorgio Vacchiano, Christian Massari, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5589–5601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5589-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5589-2021, 2021
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We evaluate 63 years of changes in annual streamflow volume across Europe, using a data set of more than 3000 stations, with a special focus on the Mediterranean basin. The results show decreasing (increasing) volumes in the southern (northern) regions. These trends are strongly consistent with the changes in temperature and precipitation.
Nora Helbig, Michael Schirmer, Jan Magnusson, Flavia Mäder, Alec van Herwijnen, Louis Quéno, Yves Bühler, Jeff S. Deems, and Simon Gascoin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4607–4624, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4607-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4607-2021, 2021
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The snow cover spatial variability in mountains changes considerably over the course of a snow season. In applications such as weather, climate and hydrological predictions the fractional snow-covered area is therefore an essential parameter characterizing how much of the ground surface in a grid cell is currently covered by snow. We present a seasonal algorithm and a spatiotemporal evaluation suggesting that the algorithm can be applied in other geographic regions by any snow model application.
Esteban Alonso-González, Ethan Gutmann, Kristoffer Aalstad, Abbas Fayad, Marine Bouchet, and Simon Gascoin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4455–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4455-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4455-2021, 2021
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Snow water resources represent a key hydrological resource for the Mediterranean regions, where most of the precipitation falls during the winter months. This is the case for Lebanon, where snowpack represents 31 % of the spring flow. We have used models to generate snow information corrected by means of remote sensing snow cover retrievals. Our results highlight the high temporal variability in the snowpack in Lebanon and its sensitivity to further warming caused by its hypsography.
Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Luca Ciabatta, Luca Brocca, Giriraj Amarnath, and Silvia Peruccacci
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3267–3279, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3267-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3267-2021, 2021
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Satellite and rain gauge data are tested to predict landslides in India, where the annual toll of human lives and loss of property urgently demands the implementation of strategies to prevent geo-hydrological instability. For this purpose, we calculated empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation. The validation of thresholds showed that satellite-based rainfall data perform better than ground-based data, and the best performance is obtained with an hourly temporal resolution.
Yves Tramblay, Nathalie Rouché, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Gil Mahé, Jean-François Boyer, Ernest Amoussou, Ansoumana Bodian, Honoré Dacosta, Hamouda Dakhlaoui, Alain Dezetter, Denis Hughes, Lahoucine Hanich, Christophe Peugeot, Raphael Tshimanga, and Patrick Lachassagne
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1547–1560, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1547-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1547-2021, 2021
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This dataset provides a set of hydrometric indices for about 1500 stations across Africa with daily discharge data. These indices represent mean flow characteristics and extremes (low flows and floods), allowing us to study the long-term evolution of hydrology in Africa and support the modeling efforts that aim at reducing the vulnerability of African countries to hydro-climatic variability.
Andreas Kääb, Mylène Jacquemart, Adrien Gilbert, Silvan Leinss, Luc Girod, Christian Huggel, Daniel Falaschi, Felipe Ugalde, Dmitry Petrakov, Sergey Chernomorets, Mikhail Dokukin, Frank Paul, Simon Gascoin, Etienne Berthier, and Jeffrey S. Kargel
The Cryosphere, 15, 1751–1785, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1751-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1751-2021, 2021
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Hardly recognized so far, giant catastrophic detachments of glaciers are a rare but great potential for loss of lives and massive damage in mountain regions. Several of the events compiled in our study involve volumes (up to 100 million m3 and more), avalanche speeds (up to 300 km/h), and reaches (tens of kilometres) that are hard to imagine. We show that current climate change is able to enhance associated hazards. For the first time, we elaborate a set of factors that could cause these events.
Vincent Vionnet, Christopher B. Marsh, Brian Menounos, Simon Gascoin, Nicholas E. Wayand, Joseph Shea, Kriti Mukherjee, and John W. Pomeroy
The Cryosphere, 15, 743–769, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-743-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-743-2021, 2021
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Mountain snow cover provides critical supplies of fresh water to downstream users. Its accurate prediction requires inclusion of often-ignored processes. A multi-scale modelling strategy is presented that efficiently accounts for snow redistribution. Model accuracy is assessed via airborne lidar and optical satellite imagery. With redistribution the model captures the elevation–snow depth relation. Redistribution processes are required to reproduce spatial variability, such as around ridges.
Louise Mimeau, Yves Tramblay, Luca Brocca, Christian Massari, Stefania Camici, and Pascal Finaud-Guyot
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 653–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-653-2021, 2021
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Soil moisture is a key variable related to droughts and flood genesis, but little is known about the evolution of soil moisture under climate change. Here, using a simulation approach, we show that changes in soil moisture are driven by changes in precipitation intermittence rather than changes in precipitation intensity or in temperature.
Nora Helbig, Yves Bühler, Lucie Eberhard, César Deschamps-Berger, Simon Gascoin, Marie Dumont, Jesus Revuelto, Jeff S. Deems, and Tobias Jonas
The Cryosphere, 15, 615–632, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-615-2021, 2021
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The spatial variability in snow depth in mountains is driven by interactions between topography, wind, precipitation and radiation. In applications such as weather, climate and hydrological predictions, this is accounted for by the fractional snow-covered area describing the fraction of the ground surface covered by snow. We developed a new description for model grid cell sizes larger than 200 m. An evaluation suggests that the description performs similarly well in most geographical regions.
Stefania Camici, Christian Massari, Luca Ciabatta, Ivan Marchesini, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4869–4885, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4869-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-4869-2020, 2020
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The paper performs the most comprehensive European-scale evaluation to date of satellite rainfall products for river flow prediction. In doing so, how errors transfer from satellite-based rainfall products into flood simulation is investigated in depth and, for the first time, quantitative guidelines on the use of these products for hydrological applications are provided. This result can represent a keystone in the use of satellite rainfall products, especially in data-scarce regions.
César Deschamps-Berger, Simon Gascoin, Etienne Berthier, Jeffrey Deems, Ethan Gutmann, Amaury Dehecq, David Shean, and Marie Dumont
The Cryosphere, 14, 2925–2940, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2925-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2925-2020, 2020
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We evaluate a recent method to map snow depth based on satellite photogrammetry. We compare it with accurate airborne laser-scanning measurements in the Sierra Nevada, USA. We find that satellite data capture the relationship between snow depth and elevation at the catchment scale and also small-scale features like snow drifts and avalanche deposits. We conclude that satellite photogrammetry stands out as a convenient method to estimate the spatial distribution of snow depth in high mountains.
C. Abou Chakra, J. Somma, S. Gascoin, P. Fanise, and L. Drapeau
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B2-2020, 119–125, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B2-2020-119-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B2-2020-119-2020, 2020
Michael Kern, Robert Cullen, Bruno Berruti, Jerome Bouffard, Tania Casal, Mark R. Drinkwater, Antonio Gabriele, Arnaud Lecuyot, Michael Ludwig, Rolv Midthassel, Ignacio Navas Traver, Tommaso Parrinello, Gerhard Ressler, Erik Andersson, Cristina Martin-Puig, Ole Andersen, Annett Bartsch, Sinead Farrell, Sara Fleury, Simon Gascoin, Amandine Guillot, Angelika Humbert, Eero Rinne, Andrew Shepherd, Michiel R. van den Broeke, and John Yackel
The Cryosphere, 14, 2235–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2235-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2235-2020, 2020
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The Copernicus Polar Ice and Snow Topography Altimeter will provide high-resolution sea ice thickness and land ice elevation measurements and the capability to determine the properties of snow cover on ice to serve operational products and services of direct relevance to the polar regions. This paper describes the mission objectives, identifies the key contributions the CRISTAL mission will make, and presents a concept – as far as it is already defined – for the mission payload.
Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Thierry Pellarin, Gab Abramowitz, Paolo Filippucci, Luca Ciabatta, Viviana Maggioni, Yann Kerr, and Diego Fernandez Prieto
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2687–2710, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-2687-2020, 2020
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Rain gauges are unevenly spaced around the world with extremely low gauge density over places like Africa and South America. Here, water-related problems like floods, drought and famine are particularly severe and able to cause fatalities, migration and diseases. We have developed a rainfall dataset that exploits the synergies between rainfall and soil moisture to provide accurate rainfall observations which can be used to face these problems.
Abbas Fayad and Simon Gascoin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1527–1542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1527-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1527-2020, 2020
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Seasonal snowpack is an essential water resource in Mediterranean mountains. Here, we look at the role of water percolation in simulating snow mass (SWE), for the first time, in Mount Lebanon. We use SnowModel, a distributed snow model, forced by station data. The main sources of uncertainty were attributed to rain–snow partitioning, transient winter snowmelt, and the subpixel snow cover. Yet, we show that a process-based model is suitable to simulate wet snowpack in Mediterranean mountains.
Marion Réveillet, Shelley MacDonell, Simon Gascoin, Christophe Kinnard, Stef Lhermitte, and Nicole Schaffer
The Cryosphere, 14, 147–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-147-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-147-2020, 2020
Yves Tramblay, Louise Mimeau, Luc Neppel, Freddy Vinet, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4419–4431, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4419-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4419-2019, 2019
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In the present study the flood trends have been assessed for a large sample of 171 basins located in southern France, which has a Mediterranean climate. Results show that, despite the increase in rainfall intensity previously observed in this area, there is no general increase in flood magnitude. Instead, a reduction in the annual number of floods is found, linked to a decrease in soil moisture caused by the increase in temperature observed in recent decades.
Luca Brocca, Paolo Filippucci, Sebastian Hahn, Luca Ciabatta, Christian Massari, Stefania Camici, Lothar Schüller, Bojan Bojkov, and Wolfgang Wagner
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1583–1601, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1583-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1583-2019, 2019
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SM2RAIN–ASCAT is a new 12-year (2007–2018) global-scale rainfall dataset obtained by applying the SM2RAIN algorithm to ASCAT soil moisture data. The dataset has a spatiotemporal sampling resolution of 12.5 km and 1 d. Results show that the new dataset performs particularly well in Africa and South America, i.e. in the continents in which ground observations are scarce and the need for satellite rainfall data is high. SM2RAIN–ASCAT is available at http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.340556.
Pauline Rivoire, Yves Tramblay, Luc Neppel, Elke Hertig, and Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1629–1638, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1629-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1629-2019, 2019
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In order to define a dry period, a threshold for wet days is usually considered to account for measurement errors and evaporation. In the present study, we compare the threshold of 1 mm d−1, the most commonly used threshold, to a time-varying threshold describing evapotranspiration to compare how the risk of extreme dry spells is estimated with both thresholds. Results indicate that considering a fixed threshold can underestimate extreme dry spells during the extended summer.
S. Ferrant, A. Selles, M. Le Page, A. AlBitar, S. Mermoz, S. Gascoin, A. Bouvet, S. Ahmed, and Y. Kerr
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-3-W6, 285–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W6-285-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W6-285-2019, 2019
Simon Gascoin, Manuel Grizonnet, Marine Bouchet, Germain Salgues, and Olivier Hagolle
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 493–514, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-493-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-493-2019, 2019
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The Sentinel-2 satellite mission allows the observation of the land surface at unprecedented resolutions (20 m every 5 days). The frequency of observations can be further increased with Landsat-8. Here we describe a new collection of snow maps made from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 and evaluate their accuracy. The data are routinely produced over several mountain areas and freely distributed via http://theia.cnes.fr. These new data could unlock advances in our understanding of mountain ecosystems.
Felix Zaussinger, Wouter Dorigo, Alexander Gruber, Angelica Tarpanelli, Paolo Filippucci, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 897–923, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-897-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-897-2019, 2019
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About 70 % of global freshwater is consumed by irrigation. Yet, policy-relevant estimates of irrigation water use (IWU) are virtually lacking at regional to global scales. To bridge this gap, we develop a method for quantifying IWU from a combination of state-of-the-art remotely sensed and modeled soil moisture products and apply it over the United States for the period 2013–2016. Overall, our estimates agree well with reference data on irrigated area and irrigation water withdrawals.
Victor Pellet, Filipe Aires, Simon Munier, Diego Fernández Prieto, Gabriel Jordá, Wouter Arnoud Dorigo, Jan Polcher, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 465–491, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-465-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-465-2019, 2019
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This study is an effort for a better understanding and quantification of the water cycle and related processes in the Mediterranean region, by dealing with satellite products and their uncertainties. The aims of the paper are 3-fold: (1) developing methods with hydrological constraints to integrate all the datasets, (2) giving the full picture of the Mediterranean WC, and (3) building a model-independent database that can evaluate the numerous regional climate models (RCMs) for this region.
Adrien Gilbert, Silvan Leinss, Jeffrey Kargel, Andreas Kääb, Simon Gascoin, Gregory Leonard, Etienne Berthier, Alina Karki, and Tandong Yao
The Cryosphere, 12, 2883–2900, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2883-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-2883-2018, 2018
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In Tibet, two glaciers suddenly collapsed in summer 2016 and produced two gigantic ice avalanches, killing nine people. This kind of phenomenon is extremely rare. By combining a detailed modelling study and high-resolution satellite observations, we show that the event was triggered by an increasing meltwater supply in the fine-grained material underneath the two glaciers. Contrary to what is often thought, this event is not linked to a change in the thermal condition at the glacier base.
Sameh Saadi, Gilles Boulet, Malik Bahir, Aurore Brut, Émilie Delogu, Pascal Fanise, Bernard Mougenot, Vincent Simonneaux, and Zohra Lili Chabaane
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2187–2209, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2187-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2187-2018, 2018
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This study evaluated the performances of an energy balance model (SPARSE model) forced by MODIS remote sensing products in an operational context to estimate instantaneous and daily evapotranspiration. The validation protocol was based on an unprecedented dataset with an extra-large aperture scintillometer. Indeed, to our knowledge, this is the first work based on XLAS measurements acquired over the course of more than 2 years.
Esteban Alonso-González, J. Ignacio López-Moreno, Simon Gascoin, Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda, Alba Sanmiguel-Vallelado, Francisco Navarro-Serrano, Jesús Revuelto, Antonio Ceballos, María Jesús Esteban-Parra, and Richard Essery
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 303–315, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-303-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-303-2018, 2018
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We present a new daily gridded snow depth and snow water equivalent database over the Iberian Peninsula from 1980 to 2014 structured in common elevation bands. The data have proved their consistency with in situ observations and remote sensing data (MODIS). The presented dataset may be useful for many applications, including land management, hydrometeorological studies, phenology of flora and fauna, winter tourism and risk management.
Luca Ciabatta, Christian Massari, Luca Brocca, Alexander Gruber, Christoph Reimer, Sebastian Hahn, Christoph Paulik, Wouter Dorigo, Richard Kidd, and Wolfgang Wagner
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 267–280, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-267-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-267-2018, 2018
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In this study, rainfall is estimated starting from satellite soil moisture observation on a global scale, using the ESA CCI soil moisture datasets. The new obtained rainfall product has proven to correctly identify rainfall events, showing performance sometimes higher than those obtained by using classical rainfall estimation approaches.
Hylke E. Beck, Noemi Vergopolan, Ming Pan, Vincenzo Levizzani, Albert I. J. M. van Dijk, Graham P. Weedon, Luca Brocca, Florian Pappenberger, George J. Huffman, and Eric F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6201–6217, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6201-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6201-2017, 2017
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This study represents the most comprehensive global-scale precipitation dataset evaluation to date. We evaluated 13 uncorrected precipitation datasets using precipitation observations from 76 086 gauges, and 9 gauge-corrected ones using hydrological modeling for 9053 catchments. Our results highlight large differences in estimation accuracy, and hence, the importance of precipitation dataset selection in both research and operational applications.
Jordi Etchanchu, Vincent Rivalland, Simon Gascoin, Jérôme Cros, Tiphaine Tallec, Aurore Brut, and Gilles Boulet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5693–5708, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5693-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5693-2017, 2017
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This study assesses the contribution of vegetation dynamics and land use products from high-resolution remote sensing data in the soil–vegetation–atmosphere Transfer ISBA model. We used a field-scale approach (each field is a computation cell) to take advantage of the resolution. The simulations done over an agricultural area in southwestern France showed that integrating such products leads to an improvement of the hydrometeorological fluxes like evapotranspiration or drainage.
Christian Massari, Wade Crow, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4347–4361, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4347-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4347-2017, 2017
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The paper explores a method for the assessment of the performance of global rainfall estimates without relying on ground-based observations. Thanks to this method, different global correlation maps are obtained (for the first time without relying on a benchmark dataset) for some of the most used globally available rainfall products. This is central for hydroclimatic studies within data-scarce regions, where ground observations are scarce to evaluate the relative quality of a rainfall product
Abbas Fayad, Simon Gascoin, Ghaleb Faour, Pascal Fanise, Laurent Drapeau, Janine Somma, Ali Fadel, Ahmad Al Bitar, and Richard Escadafal
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 573–587, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-573-2017, 2017
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Snowmelt plays a key role in the replenishment of the karst groundwater in Lebanon. The proper estimation of the water contained in the snowpack is one of Lebanon's most challenging questions. In this paper, we present continuous meteorological and snow course observations for the first time in the snow-dominated regions of Mount Lebanon. This new dataset can be used to feed an advanced snowpack model and is the first step towards a better evaluation of the snowmelt in Lebanon.
Louise Steffensen Schmidt, Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, Sverrir Guðmundsson, Peter L. Langen, Finnur Pálsson, Ruth Mottram, Simon Gascoin, and Helgi Björnsson
The Cryosphere, 11, 1665–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1665-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1665-2017, 2017
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The regional climate model HIRHAM5 is evaluated over Vatnajökull, Iceland, using automatic weather stations and mass balance observations from 1995 to 2014. From this we asses whether the model can be used to reconstruct the mass balance of the glacier. We find that the simulated energy balance is underestimated overall, but it has been improved by using a new albedo scheme. The specific mass balance is reconstructed back to 1980, thus expanding on the observational records of the mass balance.
Xiaodong Gao, Xining Zhao, Luca Brocca, Gaopeng Huo, Ting Lv, and Pute Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-292, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-292, 2017
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Profile soil moisture is key state variable in the Critical Zone ecology and hydrology. This paper sucessfully used a simple statistical method, the cumulative distribution frequency (CDF) matching method for the first time, to predict profile soil moisture (0–100 cm) from surface measurement (5 cm). The findings here can provide insights into profile soil moisture estimation from remote sensing moisture products.
Wuletawu Abera, Giuseppe Formetta, Luca Brocca, and Riccardo Rigon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3145–3165, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3145-2017, 2017
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This study documents a state-of-the-art estimation of the water budget (rainfall, evapotranspiration, discharge, and soil and groundwater storage) components for the Upper Blue Nile river. The budget uses various JGrass-NewAGE components, satellite data and all ground measurements available. The analysis shows that precipitation of the basin is 1360 ± 230 mm per year. Evapotranspiration accounts for 56 %, runoff is 33 %, and storage varies from minus 10 % to plus 17 % of the annual water budget.
Xiaodong Gao, Xining Zhao, Luca Brocca, Ting Lv, Gaopeng Huo, and Pute Wu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-617, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-617, 2016
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We built observation operators by the CDF matching method. Two-year duration was identified as the optimal data length in prediction accuracy. Application in different climates in USA showed these operators are a robust statistical tool for upscaling soil moisture from surface to profile by using exponential filter as a reference method. The findings here may be applied in the prediction of profile soil moisture from surface measurements via remote sensing techniques.
Paul Hublart, Denis Ruelland, Inaki García de Cortázar-Atauri, Simon Gascoin, Stef Lhermitte, and Antonio Ibacache
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3691–3717, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3691-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3691-2016, 2016
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Our paper explores the reliability of conceptual catchment models in the dry Andes. First, we show that explicitly accounting for irrigation water use improves streamflow predictions during dry years. Second, we show that sublimation losses can be easily incorporated into temperature-based melt models without increasing model complexity too much. Our work also highlights areas requiring additional research, including the need for a better conceptualization of runoff generation processes.
R. Marti, S. Gascoin, E. Berthier, M. de Pinel, T. Houet, and D. Laffly
The Cryosphere, 10, 1361–1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1361-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-1361-2016, 2016
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To date, there is no definitive approach to map snow depth in mountainous areas from spaceborne sensors. We used very-high-resolution stereo satellites imagery (Pléiades) to generate a map of snow depth in a small Pyrenean catchment. The validation results are promising and open the possibility to retrieve the snow depth at a metric horizontal resolution in remote mountainous areas, even when no field data are available.
F. Todisco, L. Brocca, L. F. Termite, and W. Wagner
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3845–3856, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3845-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3845-2015, 2015
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We developed a new formulation of USLE, named Soil Moisture for Erosion (SM4E), that directly incorporates soil moisture information. SM4E is applied here by using modeled data and satellite observations obtained from the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT). SM4E is found to outperform USLE and USLE-MM models in silty–clay soil in central Italy. Through satellite data, there is the potential of applying SM4E for large-scale monitoring and quantification of the soil erosion process.
R. Marti, S. Gascoin, T. Houet, O. Ribière, D. Laffly, T. Condom, S. Monnier, M. Schmutz, C. Camerlynck, J. P. Tihay, J. M. Soubeyroux, and P. René
The Cryosphere, 9, 1773–1795, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1773-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1773-2015, 2015
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Pyrenean glaciers are currently the southernmost glaciers in Europe. Using an exceptional archive of historical data sets and recent accurate observations, we propose the reconstruction of the length, area, elevation, and mass balance of Ossoue Glacier (French Pyrenees) since the Little Ice Age. We show that its evolution is in good agreement with climatic data. Assuming that the current ablation rate stays constant, Ossoue Glacier will disappear midway through the 21st century.
S. Gascoin, O. Hagolle, M. Huc, L. Jarlan, J.-F. Dejoux, C. Szczypta, R. Marti, and R. Sánchez
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2337–2351, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2337-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2337-2015, 2015
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There is a good agreement between the MODIS snow products and observations from automatic stations and Landsat snow maps in the Pyrenees. The optimal thresholds for which a MODIS pixel is marked as snow-covered are 40mm in water equivalent and 150mm in snow depth.
We generate a gap-filled snow cover climatology for the Pyrenees. We compute the mean snow cover duration by elevation and aspect classes. We show anomalous snow patterns in 2012 and consequences on hydropower production.
S. Ferrant, S. Gascoin, A. Veloso, J. Salmon-Monviola, M. Claverie, V. Rivalland, G. Dedieu, V. Demarez, E. Ceschia, J.-L. Probst, P. Durand, and V. Bustillo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5219–5237, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5219-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-5219-2014, 2014
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A set of high spatial and temporal satellite images have been used to spatially calibrate crop growth within an agro-hydrological model dedicated to nitrogen contamination of stream water. This type of spatial calibration greatly improved the simulation of nitrogen plant uptake and better constrained nutrient fluxes in the river. This is an example of the benefit of the forthcoming Sentinel-2 high resolution optical image series that will be acquired every 4/5 days over continental surfaces.
S. Manfreda, L. Brocca, T. Moramarco, F. Melone, and J. Sheffield
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1199–1212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1199-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1199-2014, 2014
C. Massari, L. Brocca, S. Barbetta, C. Papathanasiou, M. Mimikou, and T. Moramarco
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 839–853, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-839-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-839-2014, 2014
Y. Tramblay, S. El Adlouni, and E. Servat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3235–3248, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3235-2013, 2013
Y. Tramblay, D. Ruelland, S. Somot, R. Bouaicha, and E. Servat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3721–3739, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3721-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3721-2013, 2013
L. Brocca, S. Liersch, F. Melone, T. Moramarco, and M. Volk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3159–3169, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3159-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3159-2013, 2013
Related subject area
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Characterizing multivariate coastal flooding events in a semi-arid region: the implications of copula choice, sampling, and infrastructure
Different drought types and the spatial variability in their hazard, impact, and propagation characteristics
More than heavy rain turning into fast-flowing water – a landscape perspective on the 2021 Eifel floods
Integrated drought risk assessment to support adaptive policymaking in the Netherlands
INSYDE-BE: adaptation of the INSYDE model to the Walloon region (Belgium)
Assessing flooding impact to riverine bridges: an integrated analysis
Warming of 0.5 °C may cause double the economic loss and increase the population affected by floods in China
First application of the Integrated Karst Aquifer Vulnerability (IKAV) method – potential and actual vulnerability in Yucatán, Mexico
Brief communication: Seismological analysis of flood dynamics and hydrologically triggered earthquake swarms associated with Storm Alex
System vulnerability to flood events and risk assessment of railway systems based on national and river basin scales in China
Machine-learning blends of geomorphic descriptors: value and limitations for flood hazard assessment across large floodplains
Bouchra Zellou, Nabil El Moçayd, and El Houcine Bergou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3543–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, 2023
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In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction capabilities in the Mediterranean region. We present an in-depth evaluation of current drought forecasting approaches, encompassing statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models, and highlight unexplored research opportunities. Additionally, we suggest viable directions to enhance drought prediction and early warning systems within the area.
Francisco Rodrigues do Amaral, Nicolas Gratiot, Thierry Pellarin, and Tran Anh Tu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3379–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, 2023
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We propose an in-depth analysis of typhoon-induced compound flood drivers in the megacity of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. We use in situ and satellite measurements throughout the event to form a holistic overview of its impact. No evidence of storm surge was found, and peak precipitation presents a 16 h time lag to peak river discharge, which evacuates only 1.5 % of available water. The astronomical tide controls the river level even during the extreme event, and it is the main urban flood driver.
Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, and François Bouttier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3355–3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, 2023
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This article results from a master's research project which was part of a natural hazards programme developed by the French Ministry of Ecological Transition. The objective of this work was to investigate a possible way to improve the operational flash flood warning service by adding rainfall forecasts upstream of the forecasting chain. The results showed that the tested forecast product, which is new and experimental, has a real added value compared to other classical forecast products.
Florian Roth, Bernhard Bauer-Marschallinger, Mark Edwin Tupas, Christoph Reimer, Peter Salamon, and Wolfgang Wagner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3305–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, 2023
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In August and September 2022, millions of people were impacted by a severe flood event in Pakistan. Since many roads and other infrastructure were destroyed, satellite data were the only way of providing large-scale information on the flood's impact. Based on the flood mapping algorithm developed at Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), we mapped an area of 30 492 km2 that was flooded at least once during the study's time period. This affected area matches about the total area of Belgium.
Clément Houdard, Adrien Poupardin, Philippe Sergent, Abdelkrim Bennabi, and Jena Jeong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3111–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, 2023
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We developed a system able to to predict, knowing the appropriate characteristics of the flood defense structure and sea state, the return periods of potentially dangerous events as well as a ranking of parameters by order of uncertainty.
The model is a combination of statistical and empirical methods that have been applied to a Mediterranean earthen dike. This shows that the most important characteristics of the dyke are its geometrical features, such as its height and slope angles.
Nejc Bezak, Panos Panagos, Leonidas Liakos, and Matjaž Mikoš
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1979, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1979, 2023
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Extreme floods occurred in August 2023 in Slovenia. This brief communication investigates the main drivers, mechanisms and impacts of this event. The August 2023 flood disaster can be regarded as relatively extreme and it was probably the most extreme flood event in Slovenia in the last several decades. The economic damage was large and could reach well over 5 % of the annual Slovenia Gross Domestic Product, the event caused also three fatalities.
Lisa Köhler, Torsten Masson, Sabrina Köhler, and Christian Kuhlicke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2787–2806, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2787-2023, 2023
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We analyzed the impact of flood experience on adaptive behavior and self-reported resilience. The outcomes draw a paradoxical picture: the most experienced people are the most adapted but the least resilient. We find evidence for non-linear relationships between the number of floods experienced and resilience. We contribute to existing knowledge by focusing specifically on the number of floods experienced and extending the rare scientific literature on the influence of experience on resilience.
Helen Hooker, Sarah L. Dance, David C. Mason, John Bevington, and Kay Shelton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2769–2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023, 2023
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Ensemble forecasts of flood inundation produce maps indicating the probability of flooding. A new approach is presented to evaluate the spatial performance of an ensemble flood map forecast by comparison against remotely observed flooding extents. This is important for understanding forecast uncertainties and improving flood forecasting systems.
Betina I. Guido, Ioana Popescu, Vidya Samadi, and Biswa Bhattacharya
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2663–2681, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2663-2023, 2023
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We used an integrated model to evaluate the impacts of nature-based solutions (NBSs) on flood mitigation across the Little Pee Dee and Lumber River watershed, the Carolinas, US. This area is strongly affected by climatic disasters, which are expected to increase due to climate change and urbanization, so exploring an NBS approach is crucial for adapting to future alterations. Our research found that NBSs can have visible effects on the reduction in hurricane-driven flooding.
Maliko Tanguy, Michael Eastman, Eugene Magee, Lucy J. Barker, Thomas Chitson, Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit, Daniel Goodwin, Jamie Hannaford, Ian Holman, Liwa Pardthaisong, Simon Parry, Dolores Rey Vicario, and Supattra Visessri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2419–2441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2419-2023, 2023
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Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Understanding the link between drought impacts on the ground and drought indicators used in drought monitoring systems can help increase a country's preparedness and resilience to drought. With a focus on agricultural droughts, we derive crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links that can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions and an improved drought monitoring and early warning system in Thailand.
Leon Scheiber, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Christian Jordan, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2313–2332, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2313-2023, 2023
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Numerical models are increasingly important for assessing urban flooding, yet reliable input data are oftentimes hard to obtain. Taking Ho Chi Minh City as an example, this paper explores the usability and reliability of open-access data to produce preliminary risk maps that provide first insights into potential flooding hotspots. As a key novelty, a normalized flood severity index is presented which combines flood depth and duration to enhance the interpretation of hydro-numerical results.
Claudia Herbert and Petra Döll
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2111–2131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2111-2023, 2023
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This paper presents a new method for selecting streamflow drought hazard indicators for monitoring drought hazard for human water supply and river ecosystems in large-scale drought early warning systems. Indicators are classified by their inherent assumptions about the habituation of people and ecosystems to the streamflow regime and their level of drought characterization, namely drought magnitude (water deficit at a certain point in time) and severity (cumulated magnitude since drought onset).
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, 2023
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This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end users, with a focus on the anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should help in drawing robust conclusions about the usefulness of new rainfall ensemble forecasts.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-804, 2023
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This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River Basin in Summer 2020.
Min Li, Mingfeng Zhang, Runxiang Cao, Yidi Sun, and Xiyuan Deng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1453–1464, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1453-2023, 2023
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It is an important disaster reduction strategy to forecast hydrological drought. In order to analyse the impact of human activities on hydrological drought, we constructed the human activity factor based on the method of restoration. With the increase of human index (HI) value, hydrological droughts tend to transition to more severe droughts. The conditional distribution model involving of human activity factor can further improve the forecasting accuracy of drought in the Luanhe River basin.
Ana Paez-Trujilo, Jeffer Cañon, Beatriz Hernandez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-50, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-50, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach to asses the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
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Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
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Floods in urban areas are one of the most common natural hazards. Due to climate change enhancing extreme rainfall and cities becoming larger and denser, the impacts of these events are expected to increase. A fast and reliable flood warning system should thus be implemented in flood-prone cities to warn the public of upcoming floods. The purpose of this brief communication is to discuss the potential implementation of low-cost acoustic rainfall sensors in short-term flood warning systems.
Katharina Lengfeld, Paul Voit, Frank Kaspar, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1227–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023, 2023
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Estimating the severity of a rainfall event based on the damage caused is easy but highly depends on the affected region. A less biased measure for the extremeness of an event is its rarity combined with its spatial extent. In this brief communication, we investigate the sensitivity of such measures to the underlying dataset and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial and temporal scales using the devastating rainfall event in July 2021 in central Europe as an example.
Paul D. Bates, James Savage, Oliver Wing, Niall Quinn, Christopher Sampson, Jeffrey Neal, and Andrew Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 891–908, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023, 2023
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We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high resolution (~ 20–25 m). We show that UK flood losses were ~ 6 % greater in the climate of 2020 compared to recent historical values. The UK can keep any future increase to ~ 8 % if all countries implement their COP26 pledges and net-zero ambitions in full. However, if only the COP26 pledges are fulfilled, then UK flood losses increase by ~ 23 %; and potentially by ~ 37 % in a worst-case scenario.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
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In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Omar Seleem, Georgy Ayzel, Axel Bronstert, and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 809–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-809-2023, 2023
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Data-driven models are becoming more of a surrogate that overcomes the limitations of the computationally expensive 2D hydrodynamic models to map urban flood hazards. However, the model's ability to generalize outside the training domain is still a major challenge. We evaluate the performance of random forest and convolutional neural networks to predict urban floodwater depth and investigate their transferability outside the training domain.
Tahmina Yasmin, Kieran Khamis, Anthony Ross, Subir Sen, Anita Sharma, Debashish Sen, Sumit Sen, Wouter Buytaert, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 667–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-667-2023, 2023
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Floods continue to be a wicked problem that require developing early warning systems with plausible assumptions of risk behaviour, with more targeted conversations with the community at risk. Through this paper we advocate the use of a SMART approach to encourage bottom-up initiatives to develop inclusive and purposeful early warning systems that benefit the community at risk by engaging them at every step of the way along with including other stakeholders at multiple scales of operations.
Venkataswamy Sahana and Arpita Mondal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 623–641, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023, 2023
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In an agriculture-dependent, densely populated country such as India, drought risk projection is important to assess future water security. This study presents the first comprehensive drought risk assessment over India, integrating hazard and vulnerability information. Future drought risk is found to be more significantly driven by increased vulnerability resulting from societal developments rather than climate-induced changes in hazard. These findings can inform planning for drought resilience.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
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The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Yinxue Liu, Paul D. Bates, and Jeffery C. Neal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 375–391, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-375-2023, 2023
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In this paper, we test two approaches for removing buildings and other above-ground objects from a state-of-the-art satellite photogrammetry topography product, ArcticDEM. Our best technique gives a 70 % reduction in vertical error, with an average difference of 1.02 m from a benchmark lidar for the city of Helsinki, Finland. When used in a simulation of rainfall-driven flooding, the bare-earth version of ArcticDEM yields a significant improvement in predicted inundation extent and water depth.
Joseph L. Gutenson, Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Mohammad S. Islam, Oliver E. J. Wing, William P. Lehman, Chase O. Hamilton, Mark D. Wahl, and T. Christopher Massey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 261–277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-261-2023, 2023
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Emergency managers use event-based flood inundation maps (FIMs) to plan and coordinate flood emergency response. We perform a case study test of three different FIM frameworks to see if FIM differences lead to substantial differences in the location and magnitude of flood exposure and consequences. We find that the FIMs are very different spatially and that the spatial differences do produce differences in the location and magnitude of exposure and consequences.
Mohamed Saadi, Carina Furusho-Percot, Alexandre Belleflamme, Ju-Yu Chen, Silke Trömel, and Stefan Kollet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 159–177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-159-2023, 2023
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On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human fatalities. We analyzed how accurate our estimates of rainfall and peak flow were for these flooding events in western Germany. We found that the rainfall estimates from radar measurements were improved by including polarimetric variables and their vertical gradients. Peak flow estimates were highly uncertain due to uncertainties in hydrological model parameters and rainfall measurements.
Arefeh Safaei-Moghadam, David Tarboton, and Barbara Minsker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1-2023, 2023
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Climate change, urbanization, and aging infrastructure contribute to flooding on roadways. This study evaluates the potential for flood reports collected from Waze – a community-based navigation app – to predict these events. Waze reports correlate primarily with low-lying depressions on roads. Therefore, we developed two data-driven models to determine whether roadways will flood. Analysis showed that in the city of Dallas, drainage area and imperviousness are the most significant contributors.
Zongjia Zhang, Jun Liang, Yujue Zhou, Zhejun Huang, Jie Jiang, Junguo Liu, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4139–4165, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4139-2022, 2022
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An innovative multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for predicting waterlogging depth is proposed in the paper. The framework selects eight regression algorithms for comparison and tests the prediction accuracy and robustness of the model under different prediction strategies. Ultimately, the accuracy of predicting water depth after 30 min can exceed 86.1 %. This can aid decision-making in terms of issuing early warning information and determining emergency responses in advance.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Maite deCastro, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3957–3972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, 2022
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A multiscale analysis, where the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX project were used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) that, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber+), was applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to Ourense city, in order to analyze future changes in flood hazard. Detailed flood maps indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of future floods, implying an increase in flood hazard in important areas of the city.
Jaime Gaona, Pere Quintana-Seguí, María José Escorihuela, Aaron Boone, and María Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3461–3485, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3461-2022, 2022
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Droughts represent a particularly complex natural hazard and require explorations of their multiple causes. Part of the complexity has roots in the interaction between the continuous changes in and deviation from normal conditions of the atmosphere and the land surface. The exchange between the atmospheric and surface conditions defines feedback towards dry or wet conditions. In semi-arid environments, energy seems to exceed water in its impact over the evolution of conditions, favoring drought.
Melanie Fischer, Jana Brettin, Sigrid Roessner, Ariane Walz, Monique Fort, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3105–3123, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3105-2022, 2022
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Nepal’s second-largest city has been rapidly growing since the 1970s, although its valley has been affected by rare, catastrophic floods in recent and historic times. We analyse potential impacts of such floods on urban areas and infrastructure by modelling 10 physically plausible flood scenarios along Pokhara’s main river. We find that hydraulic effects would largely affect a number of squatter settlements, which have expanded rapidly towards the river by a factor of up to 20 since 2008.
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3005–3014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3005-2022, 2022
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The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2921–2927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2921-2022, 2022
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This study depicts the flood-affected areas in western Europe in July 2021 and particularly the agriculture land that was under flood inundation. The results indicate that the total inundated area over western Europe is about 1920 km2, of which 1320 km2 is in France. Around 64 % of the inundated area is agricultural land. We expect that the agricultural productivity in western Europe will have been severely impacted.
Daniel Viviroli, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Guillaume Evin, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Jérémy Chardon, Anne-Catherine Favre, Benoit Hingray, Gilles Nicolet, Damien Raynaud, Jan Seibert, Rolf Weingartner, and Calvin Whealton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2891–2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, 2022
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Estimating the magnitude of rare to very rare floods is a challenging task due to a lack of sufficiently long observations. The challenge is even greater in large river basins, where precipitation patterns and amounts differ considerably between individual events and floods from different parts of the basin coincide. We show that a hydrometeorological model chain can provide plausible estimates in this setting and can thus inform flood risk and safety assessments for critical infrastructure.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2791–2805, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2791-2022, 2022
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To better understand how the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) will change with changing climate and to adapt disaster risk management accordingly, we have to quantify the extremeness of HPEs in a reliable way. We introduce the xWEI (cross-scale WEI) and show that this index can reveal important characteristics of HPEs that would otherwise remain hidden. We conclude that the xWEI could be a valuable instrument in both disaster risk management and research.
Angelica Tarpanelli, Alessandro C. Mondini, and Stefania Camici
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2473–2489, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2473-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2473-2022, 2022
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We analysed 10 years of river discharge data from almost 2000 sites in Europe, and we extracted flood events, as proxies of flood inundations, based on the overpasses of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites to derive the percentage of potential inundation events that they were able to observe. Results show that on average 58 % of flood events are potentially observable by Sentinel-1 and only 28 % by Sentinel-2 due to the obstacle of cloud coverage.
David P. Callaghan and Michael G. Hughes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2459–2472, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2459-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2459-2022, 2022
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A new method was developed to estimate changes in flood hazard under climate change. We use climate projections covering New South Wales, Australia, with two emission paths of business as usual and one with reduced emissions. We apply our method to the lower floodplain of the Gwydir Valley with changes in flood hazard provided over the next 90 years compared with the previous 50 years. We find that changes in flood hazard decrease over time within the Gwydir Valley floodplain.
Joseph T. D. Lucey and Timu W. Gallien
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2145–2167, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2145-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2145-2022, 2022
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Coastal flooding can result from multiple flood drivers (e.g., tides, waves, river flows, rainfall) occurring at the same time. This study characterizes flooding events caused by high marine water levels and rain. Results show that wet-season coinciding sampling may better describe extreme flooding events in a dry, tidally dominated region. A joint-probability-based function is then used to estimate sea wall impacts on urban coastal flooding.
Erik Tijdeman, Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lucas Menzel, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2099–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022, 2022
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We identified different drought types with typical hazard and impact characteristics. The summer drought type with compounding heat was most impactful. Regional drought propagation of this drought type exhibited typical characteristics that can guide drought management. However, we also found a large spatial variability that caused distinct differences among propagating drought signals. Accordingly, local multivariate drought information was needed to explain the full range of drought impacts.
Michael Dietze, Rainer Bell, Ugur Ozturk, Kristen L. Cook, Christoff Andermann, Alexander R. Beer, Bodo Damm, Ana Lucia, Felix S. Fauer, Katrin M. Nissen, Tobias Sieg, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022
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The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
Marjolein J. P. Mens, Gigi van Rhee, Femke Schasfoort, and Neeltje Kielen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1763–1776, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1763-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1763-2022, 2022
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Many countries have to prepare for droughts by proposing policy actions to increase water supply, reduce water demand, or limit the societal impact. Societal cost–benefit analysis is required to support decision-making for a range of future scenarios, accounting for climate change and socio-economic developments. This paper presents a framework to assess drought policy actions based on quantification of drought risk and exemplifies it for the Netherlands’ drought risk management strategy.
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1743-2022, 2022
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This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
Maria Pregnolato, Andrew O. Winter, Dakota Mascarenas, Andrew D. Sen, Paul Bates, and Michael R. Motley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1559–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1559-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1559-2022, 2022
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The interaction of flow, structure and network is complex, and yet to be fully understood. This study aims to establish rigorous practices of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for modelling hydrodynamic forces on inundated bridges, and understanding the consequences of such impacts on the surrounding network. The objectives of this study are to model hydrodynamic forces as the demand on the bridge structure, to advance a structural reliability and network-level analysis.
Lulu Liu, Jiangbo Gao, and Shaohong Wu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1577–1590, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1577-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1577-2022, 2022
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The impact of extreme events is increasing with global warming. Based on future scenario data and an improved quantitative assessment model of natural-disaster risk, this study analyses the spatial and temporal patterns of floods in China at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming, quantitatively assesses the socioeconomic risks posed by floods, and determines the integrated risk levels. Global warming of 1.5 °C can effectively reduce the population affected and the economic risks of floods.
Miguel Moreno-Gómez, Carolina Martínez-Salvador, Rudolf Liedl, Catalin Stefan, and Julia Pacheco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1591–1608, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1591-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1591-2022, 2022
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Current vulnerability methods, as tools to protect groundwater resources from pollution, present some limitations and drawbacks: the roles of population and economic activities are not considered by such methods. The methodology presented in this work combines natural characteristics and human-driven conditions of a given region to improve the process of groundwater vulnerability analysis. Results indicate the reliability of this alternative method to improve groundwater protection strategies.
Małgorzata Chmiel, Maxime Godano, Marco Piantini, Pierre Brigode, Florent Gimbert, Maarten Bakker, Françoise Courboulex, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Diane Rivet, Anthony Sladen, David Ambrois, and Margot Chapuis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1541–1558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1541-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1541-2022, 2022
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On 2 October 2020, the French Maritime Alps were struck by an extreme rainfall event caused by Storm Alex. Here, we show that seismic data provide the timing and velocity of the propagation of flash-flood waves along the Vésubie River. We also detect 114 small local earthquakes triggered by the rainwater weight and/or its infiltration into the ground. This study paves the way for future works that can reveal further details of the impact of Storm Alex on the Earth’s surface and subsurface.
Weihua Zhu, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Philip J. Ward, and Elco E. Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1519–1540, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022, 2022
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We present a simulation framework to analyse the system vulnerability and risk of the Chinese railway system to floods. To do so, we develop a method for generating flood events at both the national and river basin scale. Results show flood system vulnerability and risk of the railway system are spatially heterogeneous. The event-based approach shows how we can identify critical hotspots, taking the first steps in developing climate-resilient infrastructure.
Andrea Magnini, Michele Lombardi, Simone Persiano, Antonio Tirri, Francesco Lo Conti, and Attilio Castellarin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1469–1486, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1469-2022, 2022
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We retrieve descriptors of the terrain morphology from a digital elevation model of a 105 km2 study area and blend them through decision tree models to map flood susceptibility and expected water depth. We investigate this approach with particular attention to (a) the comparison with a selected single-descriptor approach, (b) the goodness of decision trees, and (c) the performance of these models when applied to data-scarce regions. We find promising pathways for future research.
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Short summary
In North Africa, the vulnerability to floods is high, and there is a need to improve the flood-forecasting systems. Remote-sensing and reanalysis data can palliate the lack of in situ measurements, in particular for soil moisture, which is a crucial parameter to consider when modeling floods. In this study we provide an evaluation of recent globally available soil moisture products for flood modeling in Morocco.
In North Africa, the vulnerability to floods is high, and there is a need to improve the...
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