Articles | Volume 20, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2567-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2567-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Oct 2020
Research article |
| 01 Oct 2020
| 01 Oct 2020
A risk-based network analysis of distributed in-stream leaky barriers for flood risk management
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
JBA Consulting, Skipton, UK
Ian Hewitt
Mathematical Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Graham Sander
School of Civil and Building Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
Federico Danieli
Mathematical Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Giuseppe Formetta
Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering,
University of Trento, Trento, Italy
Alissa Kamilova
Mathematical Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Ann Kretzschmar
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Kris Kiradjiev
Mathematical Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Clint Wong
Mathematical Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Sam Pegler
School of Mathematics, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Director, JBA Trust, Skipton, UK
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Related authors
Elizabeth Follett, Keith Beven, Barry Hankin, David Mindham, and Nick Chappell
Proc. IAHS, 385, 197–201, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-197-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a spreadsheet design tool for barriers in streams used for natural flood management. Retention times in such barriers should neither be too short (they fill and empty too quickly) or too long (they might already be full when a flood occurs). Previous work has shown the order of 10 h to be effective. The tool is freely available for download at https://www.jbatrust.org/how-we-help/publications-resources/rivers-and-coasts/nfm-leaky-barrier-retention-times.
Keith Beven, Trevor Page, Paul Smith, Ann Kretzschmar, Barry Hankin, and Nick Chappell
Proc. IAHS, 385, 129–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-129-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-129-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a method of deciding when a hydrological model might be fit for purpose given the limitations of the data that are available for model evaluation. In this case the purpose is to reproduce the peak flows for an application that is concerned with evaluating the effect of natural flood management measures on flood peaks. It is shown that while all the models fail to pass the test at all time steps, there is an ensemble of models that pass for the hydrograph peaks.
Gabriel J. Cairns, Graham P. Benham, and Ian J. Hewitt
The Cryosphere, 19, 3725–3747, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3725-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-3725-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Thick layers of porous rock known as sedimentary basins lie underneath many glaciers in Antarctica that flow into the sea. These layers contain large amounts of groundwater, some of which is seawater. We use a mathematical model to predict how groundwater flows through these basins, finding that seawater can become trapped due to changes in the ice sheet over time. We also predict where water flows out of (or into) these basins, and we discuss possible implications for the glacier.
Francesca Pianosi, Georgios Sarailidis, Kirsty Styles, Philip Oldham, Stephen Hutchings, Rob Lamb, and Thorsten Wagener
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3310, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk models are essential to support risk management. As they simulate complex interactions between climate, the natural and the built environment, they unavoidably embed a range of simplifying assumptions. In this paper, we propose a more rigorous approach to analyse the impact of uncertain assumptions on modelling results. This is important to improve model transparency and set priorities for improving models.
Marianne Haseloff, Ian J. Hewitt, and Richard F. Katz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-204, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We combine models for marine ice sheets (which terminate in the ocean) and water flux at the ice-bed interface. The coupled system evolves dynamically due to a positive feedback between ice flow, heat dissipation at the ice stream bed, and basal lubrication. Our results show that depending on the hydraulic properties of the bed, distinct dynamic regimes can be identified. These regimes include steady streaming, hydraulically controlled surges, and thermally controlled oscillations.
Daniel H. Richards, Elisa Mantelli, Samuel S. Pegler, and Sandra Piazolo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3067, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3067, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ice behaves differently depending on its crystal orientation, but how this affects its flow is unclear. We combine a range of previous models into a common equation to better understand crystal alignment. We tested a range of previous models on ice streams and divides, discovering that the best fit to observations comes from a) assuming neighbouring crystals have the same stress, and b) through describing the effect of crystal orientation on the flow in a way that allows directional variation.
Elizabeth Follett, Keith Beven, Barry Hankin, David Mindham, and Nick Chappell
Proc. IAHS, 385, 197–201, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-197-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-197-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a spreadsheet design tool for barriers in streams used for natural flood management. Retention times in such barriers should neither be too short (they fill and empty too quickly) or too long (they might already be full when a flood occurs). Previous work has shown the order of 10 h to be effective. The tool is freely available for download at https://www.jbatrust.org/how-we-help/publications-resources/rivers-and-coasts/nfm-leaky-barrier-retention-times.
Keith Beven, Trevor Page, Paul Smith, Ann Kretzschmar, Barry Hankin, and Nick Chappell
Proc. IAHS, 385, 129–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-129-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-129-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a method of deciding when a hydrological model might be fit for purpose given the limitations of the data that are available for model evaluation. In this case the purpose is to reproduce the peak flows for an application that is concerned with evaluating the effect of natural flood management measures on flood peaks. It is shown that while all the models fail to pass the test at all time steps, there is an ensemble of models that pass for the hydrograph peaks.
Shima Azimi, Christian Massari, Giuseppe Formetta, Silvia Barbetta, Alberto Tazioli, Davide Fronzi, Sara Modanesi, Angelica Tarpanelli, and Riccardo Rigon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4485–4503, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4485-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4485-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed the water budget of nested karst catchments using simple methods and modeling. By utilizing the available data on precipitation and discharge, we were able to determine the response lag-time by adopting new techniques. Additionally, we modeled snow cover dynamics and evapotranspiration with the use of Earth observations, providing a concise overview of the water budget for the basin and its subbasins. We have made the data, models, and workflows accessible for further study.
Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2593–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
Tilly Woods and Ian J. Hewitt
The Cryosphere, 17, 1967–1987, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1967-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1967-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Solar radiation causes melting at and just below the surface of the Greenland ice sheet, forming a porous surface layer known as the weathering crust. The weathering crust is home to many microbes, and the growth of these microbes is linked to the melting of the weathering crust and vice versa. We use a mathematical model to investigate what controls the size and structure of the weathering crust, the number of microbes within it, and its sensitivity to climate change.
Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection-permitting climate models could represent future changes in extreme short-duration precipitation, which is critical for risk management. We use a non-asymptotic statistical method to estimate extremes from 10 years of simulations in an orographically complex area. Despite overall good agreement with rain gauges, the observed decrease of hourly extremes with elevation is not fully represented by the model. Climate model adjustment methods should consider the role of orography.
Daniel H. Richards, Samuel S. Pegler, and Sandra Piazolo
The Cryosphere, 16, 4571–4592, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4571-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4571-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding the orientation of ice grains is key for predicting ice flow. We explore the evolution of these orientations using a new efficient model. We present an exploration of the patterns produced under a range of temperatures and 2D deformations, including for the first time a universal regime diagram. We do this for deformations relevant to ice sheets but not studied in experiments. These results can be used to understand drilled ice cores and improve future modelling of ice sheets.
Riccardo Rigon, Giuseppe Formetta, Marialaura Bancheri, Niccolò Tubini, Concetta D'Amato, Olaf David, and Christian Massari
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4773–4800, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4773-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4773-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The
Digital Earth(DE) metaphor is very useful for both end users and hydrological modelers. We analyse different categories of models, with the view of making them part of a Digital eARth Twin Hydrology system (called DARTH). We also stress the idea that DARTHs are not models in and of themselves, rather they need to be built on an appropriate information technology infrastructure. It is remarked that DARTHs have to, by construction, support the open-science movement and its ideas.
Enrico Tubaldi, Christopher J. White, Edoardo Patelli, Stergios Aristoteles Mitoulis, Gustavo de Almeida, Jim Brown, Michael Cranston, Martin Hardman, Eftychia Koursari, Rob Lamb, Hazel McDonald, Richard Mathews, Richard Newell, Alonso Pizarro, Marta Roca, and Daniele Zonta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 795–812, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Bridges are critical infrastructure components of transport networks. A large number of these critical assets cross or are adjacent to waterways and are therefore exposed to the potentially devastating impact of floods. This paper discusses a series of issues and areas where improvements in research and practice are required in the context of risk assessment and management of bridges exposed to flood hazard, with the ultimate goal of guiding future efforts in improving bridge flood resilience.
Keith J. Beven, Mike J. Kirkby, Jim E. Freer, and Rob Lamb
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 527–549, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-527-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-527-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The theory that forms the basis of TOPMODEL was first outlined by Mike Kirkby some 45 years ago. This paper recalls some of the early developments: the rejection of the first journal paper, the early days of digital terrain analysis, model calibration and validation, the various criticisms of the simplifying assumptions, and the relaxation of those assumptions in the dynamic forms of TOPMODEL, and it considers what we might do now with the benefit of hindsight.
Cited articles
Addy, S. and Wilkinson, M.: An assessment of engineered log jam structures
in response to a flood event in an upland gravel-bed river, Earth Surf.
Proc. Land., 1, 1658–1670, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3936, 2016.
Addy, S. and Wilkinson, M.: Representing natural and artificial in-channel
large wood in numerical hydraulic and hydrological models, WIREs Water,
6, e1389, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1389, 2019.
Bridges, T. S., Bourne, E. M., King, J. K., Kuzmitski, H. K., Moynihan, E. B., and Suedel, B. C.: Engineering With Nature: an atlas, ERDC/EL SR-18-8,
US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS,
https://doi.org/10.21079/11681/27929, 2018.
Burgess-Gamble, L., Ngai, R., Wilkinson, M., Nisbet, T., Pontee, N., Harvey,
R., Kipling, K., Addy, S., Rose, S., Maslen, S., Jay, H., Nicholson, A.,
Page, T., Jonczyk, J., and Quin, P.: Working with Natural Processes – Evidence Directory, Environment Agency Project SC150005, available at:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/681411/Working_with_natural_processes_evidence_directory.pdf (last access: 24 September 2020), 2017.
Butler, D. R. and Malanson, G. P.: The geomorphic influences of beaver dams and failures of beaver dams, Geomorphology, 71, 48–60, 2005.
Dadson, S., Hall, J. W., Murgatroyd, A., Acreman, M., Bates, P., Beven, K., Heathwaite, L., Holden, J., Holman, I. P., Lane, S. N., O'Connell, E., Penning-Rowsell, E., Reynard, N., Sear, D., Thorne, C., and Wilby, R.: A restatement of the natural science evidence concerning catchment-based natural flood management in the UK, P. Roy. Soc. A, 473, 20160706, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2016.0706, 2017.
Defra: A Green Future: Our 25 Year Plan to Improve the Environment, Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs, London, available at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/25-year-environment-plan (last access: 24 September 2020), 2019.
Dixon, S. and Sear, D.: The influence of geomorphology on large wood dynamics in a low gradient headwater stream, Water Resour. Res., 50, 9194–9210, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015947, 2014.
EEA: Exploring nature-based solutions: The role of green infrastructure in
mitigating the impacts of weather- and climate change-related natural hazards, Technical report No. 12/2015, available at:
https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/exploring-nature-based-solutions-2014 (last access: 24 September 2020), 2015.
Environment Agency: Fluvial Design Guide, available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fluvial-design-guide (last access: 24 September 2020), 2010.
Environment Agency: Long-term investment scenarios (LTIS) 2019, available at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/flood-and-coastal-risk-management-in-england-long-term-
(last access: 24 September 2020), 2019.
European Commission: Floods Directive, 2007/60/EC, available at:
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/2007/60/oj (last access: 24 September 2020), 2007.
European Commission: Green Infrastructure (GI) — Enhancing Europe's Natural Capital – COM(2013) 149, available at: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX::52013DC0249
(last access: 24 September 2020), 2013a.
European Commission: Building a green infrastructure for Europe, Publ. Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2013b.
Hall, J. W., Dawson, R. J., Sayers, P., Rosu, C., Chatterton, J., and Deakin, R.: A methodology for national-scale flood risk assessment, Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng., 156, 235–247, 2003.
Hankin, B., Lamb, R., Craigen, I., Page, T., Chappell, N., and Metcalfe, P.: A whole catchment approach to improve flood resilience in the Eden, Winning
entry to the Defra Flood Modelling Competition 2016 [Internet], available at: https://consult.defra.gov.uk/water-and-flood-risk-management/flood-risk-management-modelling-competition/results/jba_defra_winning_entry_full_report.pdf (last access: 19 January 2017), 2017a.
Hankin, B., Metcalfe, P., Craigen, I., Page, T., Chappell, N., Lamb, R., Beven, K., and Johnson, D.: Strategies for testing the impact of natural flood risk management measures. Chapter in Flood Risk Management, ISBN 978-953-51-5526-3, available at:
https://www.intechopen.com/books/flood-risk-management/strategies-for-testing-the-impact-of-natural-flood-risk
(last access: 24 September 2020), 2017b.
Hankin, B., Hewitt, I., Sander, G., Danieli, F., Formetta, G., Kamilova, A., Kretzschmar, A., Kiradjiev, K., Wong, C., Pegler, S., and Lamb, R.: A risk-based network analysis of distributed in-stream leaky barriers for flood risk management: code and data, Zenodo, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4059378, 2020.
Hillman, G. R.: Flood Wave Attenuation by a Wetland Following a beaver dam
failure on a second order boreal system, Wetlands, 18, 21, 1998.
HM Government: National flood resilience review, available at:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-flood-resilience-review
(last access: 24 September 2020), 2016.
Institute of Hydrology: The Flood Estimation Handbook, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, ISBN 9781906698003, 1999.
Kjeldsen, T. R.: The Revitalised FSR/FEH rainfall-runoff method. Centre for
Ecology and Hydrology, ISBN 0 903741 157, available at:
https://www.ceh.ac.uk/sites/default/files/FEH Supplementary Report hi-res.pdf (last access: 24 September 2020), 2007.
Lamb, R., Keef, C., Tawn, J., Laeger, S., Meadowcroft, I., Surendran, S., Dunning P., and Batstone, C.: A new method to assess the risk of local and widespread flooding on rivers and coasts, J. Flood Risk Manage., 3, 323–336, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-318X.2010.01081.x, 2010.
Lamb, R., Garside, P., Pant, R., ad Hall, J. W.: A Probabilistic Model of the
Economic Risk to Britain's Railway Network from Bridge Scour During Floods,
Risk Anal., 39, 2457–2478, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13370, 2019.
Lancaster Environment Centre: NERC Quantifying the likely magnitude of nature-based flood mitigation effects across large catchments (Q-NFM), available at: https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/lec/sites/qnfm/ (last access: 13 July 2020), 2017.
Lane, S. N.: Natural flood management, Wiley Interdisciplin. Rev.: Water, 4, e1211, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1211, 2017.
Metcalfe, P., Beven, K. J., Hankin, B., and Lamb, R.: A modelling framework
for evaluation of the hydrological impacts of nature-based approaches to
flood risk management, with application to in-channel interventions across a
29-km2 scale catchment in the United Kingdom, Hydrol. Process., 31, 1734–1748, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11140, 2017.
Metcalfe, P., Beven, K., Hankin, B., and Lamb, R.: A new method, with application, for analysis of the impacts on flood risk of widely distributed enhanced hillslope storage, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2589–2605, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2589-2018, 2018.
Munson, B. R., Okiishi, T. H., Huebsch, W. W., and Rothmayer, A. P.: Fluid
Mechanics, 7th Edn., Wiley and Sons, Singapore, 2013.
Nicholson, A. R., O'Donnell, G. M., Wilkinson, M. E., and Quinn, P. F.: The potential of runoff attenuation features as a Natural Flood Management approach, J. Flood Risk Manage., 13, e12565, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12565, 2019.
Pattison, I., Lane, S. N., Hardy, R. J., and Reaney, S. M.: The role of tributary relative timing and sequencing in controlling large floods, Water Resour. Res., 50, 5444–5458, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014067, 2014.
Pitt, M.: The Pitt Review, 2008. Learning lessons from the 2007 floods, available at:
https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20100812084907/http://archive.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/pittreview/_/media/assets/www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/flooding_review/pitt_review_full pdf.pdf (last access: 24 September 2020), 2008.
Puttock, A., Graham, H. A., Cunliffe, A. M., Elliott, M., and Brazier, R. E.:
Eurasian beaver activity increases water storage, attenuates flow and mitigates diffuse pollution from intensively-managed grasslands, Sci. Total Environ., 576, 430–443, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.122, 2017.
Puttock, A., Graham, H. A., Carless, D., and Brazier, R.: Sediment and nutrient storage in a beaver engineered wetland, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 43, 2358–2370, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4398, 2018.
Quinn, P., O'Donnell, G., Nicholson, A., Wilkinson, M., Owen, G., Jonczyk,
J., Barber, N., Hardwick, N., and Davies, G.: Potential use of runoff attenuation features in small rural catchments for flood mitigation:
evidence from Belford, Powburn and Hepscott, Joint Newcastle University,
Royal Haskoning and Environment Agency report, available at: https://research.ncl.ac.uk/proactive/belford/newcastlenfmrafreport/reportpdf/June NFM RAF Report.pdf (last access: 16 July 2020), 2013.
UK Government: RP33: Large leaky woody dams, available at:
https://www.gov.uk/countryside-stewardship-grants/rp33-large-leaky-woody-dams
(last access: 13 July 2020), 2017.
World Wildlife Fund: The Flood Green Guide. Natural and Nature-Based Flood
Management: A Green Guide, available at:
https://c402277.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.com/publications/1058/files/original/WWF_Flood_Green_Guide_FINAL.pdf?1495628174
(last access: 24 September 2020), 2016.
Short summary
With growing support for nature-based solutions to reduce flooding by local communities, government authorities and international organisations, it is still important to improve how we assess risk reduction. We demonstrate an efficient, simplified 1D network model that allows us to explore the
whole-systemresponse of numerous leaky barriers placed in different stream networks, whilst considering utilisation, synchronisation effects and cascade failure, and we provide advice on their siting.
With growing support for nature-based solutions to reduce flooding by local communities,...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint