Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1187-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1187-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
30 Apr 2020
Research article |
| 30 Apr 2020
| 30 Apr 2020
Improving early warning of drought-driven food insecurity in southern Africa using operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting products
Climate Hazards Center, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA
Kristi R. Arsenault
SAIC, Reston, Virginia, USA
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Abheera Hazra
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, Maryland, USA
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Christa Peters-Lidard
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Randal D. Koster
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Frank Davenport
Climate Hazards Center, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA
Tamuka Magadzire
Famine Early Warning Systems Network, Washington, DC, USA
Climate Hazards Center, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA
Southern African Development Community Climate Services Center, Gaborone, Botswana
Chris Funk
US Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA
Climate Hazards Center, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA
Sujay Kumar
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Amy McNally
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, Maryland, USA
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Augusto Getirana
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, Maryland, USA
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
Greg Husak
Climate Hazards Center, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA
Ben Zaitchik
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, John Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
Jim Verdin
United States Agency for International Development, Washington, DC, USA
Famine Early Warning Systems Network, Washington, DC, USA
Faka Dieudonne Nsadisa
Southern African Development Community Climate Services Center, Gaborone, Botswana
Inbal Becker-Reshef
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
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Cited
21 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Urgent and critical need for sub-Saharan African countries to invest in Earth observation-based agricultural early warning and monitoring systems C. Nakalembe 10.1088/1748-9326/abc0bb
- NASA’s NMME-based S2S hydrologic forecast system for food insecurity early warning in southern Africa A. Hazra et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.129005
- Skillful Seasonal Forecasts of Land Carbon Uptake in Northern Mid‐ and High Latitudes E. Lee et al. 10.1029/2021GL097117
- Agricultural drought monitoring and early warning at the regional scale using a remote sensing-based combined index T. Satapathy et al. 10.1007/s10661-024-13265-y
- Groundwater modeling in data scarce aquifers: The case of Gilgel-Abay, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia F. Khadim et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125214
- Assessing Progress in Reducing the Number of Disaster-affected People: Insights from Zimbabwe E. Mavhura 10.15377/2409-5710.2023.10.4
- Enhancing the Application of Earth Observations for Improved Environmental Decision-Making Using the Early Warning eXplorer (EWX) S. Shukla et al. 10.3389/fclim.2020.583509
- Drought: A Common Environmental Disaster I. Orimoloye et al. 10.3390/atmos13010111
- Advancing early warning capabilities with CHIRPS-compatible NCEP GEFS precipitation forecasts L. Harrison et al. 10.1038/s41597-022-01468-2
- The efficacy of seasonal terrestrial water storage forecasts for predicting vegetation activity over Africa B. Cook et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0046.1
- Quantification and prediction of the impact of ENSO on rainfed rice yields in Thailand U. Wannasingha et al. 10.1016/j.envc.2025.101123
- Preface: Recent advances in drought and water scarcity monitoring, modelling, and forecasting B. Bonaccorso et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-1857-2022
- Maize yield forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa using Earth Observation data and machine learning D. Lee et al. 10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100643
- A slow rainy season onset is a reliable harbinger of drought in most food insecure regions in Sub-Saharan Africa S. Shukla et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0242883
- A Central Asia hydrologic monitoring dataset for food and water security applications in Afghanistan A. McNally et al. 10.5194/essd-14-3115-2022
- Hydrological drought evaluation using GRACE satellite-based drought index over the lake basins, East Africa A. Seka et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158425
- Nexus between summer climate variability and household food security in rural Mpumalanga Province, South Africa F. Rusere et al. 10.1016/j.envdev.2023.100892
- The Drought Regime in Southern Africa: A Systematic Review F. Chivangulula et al. 10.3390/cli11070147
- An Improved Climatological Forecast Method for Projecting End-of-Season Water Requirement Satisfaction Index W. Turner et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0184.1
- Impacts of Fully Coupling Land Surface and Flood Models on the Simulation of Large Wetlands' Water Dynamics: The Case of the Inner Niger Delta A. Getirana et al. 10.1029/2021MS002463
- Satellite Remote Sensing of Precipitation and the Terrestrial Water Cycle in a Changing Climate V. Levizzani & E. Cattani 10.3390/rs11192301
19 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Urgent and critical need for sub-Saharan African countries to invest in Earth observation-based agricultural early warning and monitoring systems C. Nakalembe 10.1088/1748-9326/abc0bb
- NASA’s NMME-based S2S hydrologic forecast system for food insecurity early warning in southern Africa A. Hazra et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.129005
- Skillful Seasonal Forecasts of Land Carbon Uptake in Northern Mid‐ and High Latitudes E. Lee et al. 10.1029/2021GL097117
- Agricultural drought monitoring and early warning at the regional scale using a remote sensing-based combined index T. Satapathy et al. 10.1007/s10661-024-13265-y
- Groundwater modeling in data scarce aquifers: The case of Gilgel-Abay, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia F. Khadim et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125214
- Assessing Progress in Reducing the Number of Disaster-affected People: Insights from Zimbabwe E. Mavhura 10.15377/2409-5710.2023.10.4
- Enhancing the Application of Earth Observations for Improved Environmental Decision-Making Using the Early Warning eXplorer (EWX) S. Shukla et al. 10.3389/fclim.2020.583509
- Drought: A Common Environmental Disaster I. Orimoloye et al. 10.3390/atmos13010111
- Advancing early warning capabilities with CHIRPS-compatible NCEP GEFS precipitation forecasts L. Harrison et al. 10.1038/s41597-022-01468-2
- The efficacy of seasonal terrestrial water storage forecasts for predicting vegetation activity over Africa B. Cook et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0046.1
- Quantification and prediction of the impact of ENSO on rainfed rice yields in Thailand U. Wannasingha et al. 10.1016/j.envc.2025.101123
- Preface: Recent advances in drought and water scarcity monitoring, modelling, and forecasting B. Bonaccorso et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-1857-2022
- Maize yield forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa using Earth Observation data and machine learning D. Lee et al. 10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100643
- A slow rainy season onset is a reliable harbinger of drought in most food insecure regions in Sub-Saharan Africa S. Shukla et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0242883
- A Central Asia hydrologic monitoring dataset for food and water security applications in Afghanistan A. McNally et al. 10.5194/essd-14-3115-2022
- Hydrological drought evaluation using GRACE satellite-based drought index over the lake basins, East Africa A. Seka et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158425
- Nexus between summer climate variability and household food security in rural Mpumalanga Province, South Africa F. Rusere et al. 10.1016/j.envdev.2023.100892
- The Drought Regime in Southern Africa: A Systematic Review F. Chivangulula et al. 10.3390/cli11070147
- An Improved Climatological Forecast Method for Projecting End-of-Season Water Requirement Satisfaction Index W. Turner et al. 10.1175/JHM-D-21-0184.1
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impacts of Fully Coupling Land Surface and Flood Models on the Simulation of Large Wetlands' Water Dynamics: The Case of the Inner Niger Delta A. Getirana et al. 10.1029/2021MS002463
- Satellite Remote Sensing of Precipitation and the Terrestrial Water Cycle in a Changing Climate V. Levizzani & E. Cattani 10.3390/rs11192301
Latest update: 02 Jul 2025
Short summary
The region of southern Africa is prone to climate-driven food insecurity events, as demonstrated by the major drought event in 2015–2016. This study demonstrates that recently developed NASA Hydrological Forecasting and Analysis System-based root-zone soil moisture monitoring and forecasting products are well correlated with interannual regional crop yield, can identify below-normal crop yield events and provide skillful crop yield forecasts, and hence support early warning of food insecurity.
The region of southern Africa is prone to climate-driven food insecurity events, as demonstrated...
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