Improving early warning of drought-driven food  insecurity in southern Africa using operational  hydrological monitoring and forecasting products

Shukla, Shraddhanand; Arsenault, Kristi R.; Hazra, Abheera; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Koster, Randal D.; Davenport, Frank; Magadzire, Tamuka; Funk, Chris; Kumar, Sujay; McNally, Amy; Getirana, Augusto; Husak, Greg; Zaitchik, Ben; Verdin, Jim; Nsadisa, Faka Dieudonne; Becker-Reshef, Inbal

doi:10.5194/nhess-20-1187-2020

Articles | Volume 20, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1187-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Recent advances in drought and water scarcity monitoring,...

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1187-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 4

Research article

|

30 Apr 2020

Research article |

| 30 Apr 2020

Improving early warning of drought-driven food insecurity in southern Africa using operational hydrological monitoring and forecasting products

Shraddhanand Shukla, Kristi R. Arsenault, Abheera Hazra, Christa Peters-Lidard, Randal D. Koster, Frank Davenport, Tamuka Magadzire, Chris Funk, Sujay Kumar, Amy McNally, Augusto Getirana, Greg Husak, Ben Zaitchik, Jim Verdin, Faka Dieudonne Nsadisa, and Inbal Becker-Reshef

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BibTeX: 164
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Views and downloads (calculated since 19 Aug 2019)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Aug 2019	127	26	2	155
Sep 2019	72	13	0	85
Oct 2019	44	9	1	54
Nov 2019	12	7	0	19
Dec 2019	9	10	0	19
Jan 2020	35	10	0	45
Feb 2020	22	12	0	34
Mar 2020	22	10	0	32
Apr 2020	84	8	0	92
May 2020	310	79	11	400
Jun 2020	134	23	4	161
Jul 2020	62	22	1	85
Aug 2020	91	18	4	113
Sep 2020	64	12	1	77
Oct 2020	82	32	0	114
Nov 2020	54	20	3	77
Dec 2020	60	10	1	71
Jan 2021	73	21	1	95
Feb 2021	79	14	0	93
Mar 2021	75	10	0	85
Apr 2021	61	11	0	72
May 2021	80	18	2	100
Jun 2021	83	17	0	100
Jul 2021	57	9	0	66
Aug 2021	83	24	0	107
Sep 2021	84	13	0	97
Oct 2021	75	38	1	114
Nov 2021	63	36	1	100
Dec 2021	50	11	1	62
Jan 2022	61	16	0	77
Feb 2022	84	4	1	89
Mar 2022	53	12	1	66
Apr 2022	67	12	2	81
May 2022	52	7	2	61
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Aug 2022	119	14	0	133
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Oct 2022	113	10	3	126
Nov 2022	32	12	1	45
Dec 2022	43	13	0	56
Jan 2023	51	21	2	74
Feb 2023	42	14	1	57
Mar 2023	45	11	6	62
Apr 2023	30	17	1	48
May 2023	67	16	3	86
Jun 2023	50	10	0	60
Jul 2023	48	16	1	65
Aug 2023	54	7	3	64
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Oct 2023	48	18	2	68
Nov 2023	20	1	1	22
Dec 2023	43	14	1	58
Jan 2024	52	10	2	64
Feb 2024	41	7	2	50
Mar 2024	63	15	1	79
Apr 2024	53	13	5	71
May 2024	63	7	6	76
Jun 2024	98	9	2	109
Jul 2024	71	8	2	81
Aug 2024	62	19	3	84
Sep 2024	44	16	1	61
Oct 2024	50	18	6	74
Nov 2024	35	16	10	61
Dec 2024	22	6	2	30
Jan 2025	40	3	0	43
Feb 2025	50	10	1	61
Mar 2025	53	8	0	61
Apr 2025	31	23	1	55
May 2025	57	9	0	66
Jun 2025	108	32	14	154
Jul 2025	63	18	2	83
Aug 2025	46	15	1	62
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Oct 2025	44	30	3	77
Nov 2025	49	7	2	58

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 19 Aug 2019)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Aug 2019	127	26	2	155
Sep 2019	72	13	0	85
Oct 2019	44	9	1	54
Nov 2019	12	7	0	19
Dec 2019	9	10	0	19
Jan 2020	35	10	0	45
Feb 2020	22	12	0	34
Mar 2020	22	10	0	32
Apr 2020	84	8	0	92
May 2020	310	79	11	400
Jun 2020	134	23	4	161
Jul 2020	62	22	1	85
Aug 2020	91	18	4	113
Sep 2020	64	12	1	77
Oct 2020	82	32	0	114
Nov 2020	54	20	3	77
Dec 2020	60	10	1	71
Jan 2021	73	21	1	95
Feb 2021	79	14	0	93
Mar 2021	75	10	0	85
Apr 2021	61	11	0	72
May 2021	80	18	2	100
Jun 2021	83	17	0	100
Jul 2021	57	9	0	66
Aug 2021	83	24	0	107
Sep 2021	84	13	0	97
Oct 2021	75	38	1	114
Nov 2021	63	36	1	100
Dec 2021	50	11	1	62
Jan 2022	61	16	0	77
Feb 2022	84	4	1	89
Mar 2022	53	12	1	66
Apr 2022	67	12	2	81
May 2022	52	7	2	61
Jun 2022	73	15	2	90
Jul 2022	87	3	0	90
Aug 2022	119	14	0	133
Sep 2022	29	10	0	39
Oct 2022	113	10	3	126
Nov 2022	32	12	1	45
Dec 2022	43	13	0	56
Jan 2023	51	21	2	74
Feb 2023	42	14	1	57
Mar 2023	45	11	6	62
Apr 2023	30	17	1	48
May 2023	67	16	3	86
Jun 2023	50	10	0	60
Jul 2023	48	16	1	65
Aug 2023	54	7	3	64
Sep 2023	25	10	0	35
Oct 2023	48	18	2	68
Nov 2023	20	1	1	22
Dec 2023	43	14	1	58
Jan 2024	52	10	2	64
Feb 2024	41	7	2	50
Mar 2024	63	15	1	79
Apr 2024	53	13	5	71
May 2024	63	7	6	76
Jun 2024	98	9	2	109
Jul 2024	71	8	2	81
Aug 2024	62	19	3	84
Sep 2024	44	16	1	61
Oct 2024	50	18	6	74
Nov 2024	35	16	10	61
Dec 2024	22	6	2	30
Jan 2025	40	3	0	43
Feb 2025	50	10	1	61
Mar 2025	53	8	0	61
Apr 2025	31	23	1	55
May 2025	57	9	0	66
Jun 2025	108	32	14	154
Jul 2025	63	18	2	83
Aug 2025	46	15	1	62
Sep 2025	54	23	4	81
Oct 2025	44	30	3	77
Nov 2025	49	7	2	58

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Short summary

The region of southern Africa is prone to climate-driven food insecurity events, as demonstrated by the major drought event in 2015–2016. This study demonstrates that recently developed NASA Hydrological Forecasting and Analysis System-based root-zone soil moisture monitoring and forecasting products are well correlated with interannual regional crop yield, can identify below-normal crop yield events and provide skillful crop yield forecasts, and hence support early warning of food insecurity.


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