Articles | Volume 19, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-697-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-697-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 Apr 2019
Research article |
| 02 Apr 2019
| 02 Apr 2019
Event-based probabilistic risk assessment of livestock snow disasters in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Key Laboratory of
Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing 100875, China
Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston University, Boston, 02215, USA
Weihang Liu
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Key Laboratory of
Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
School of Geographic Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
Jidong Wu
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Key Laboratory of
Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing 100875, China
Yijia Li
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Key Laboratory of
Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing 100875, China
Peijun Shi
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Key Laboratory of
Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing 100875, China
Qiang Zhang
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Key Laboratory of
Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing 100875, China
Related authors
Ran Sun, Tao Ye, Yiqing Liu, Weihang Liu, and Shuo Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-8, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-8, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We found increasing trend of compound hot-dry events for single-rice but decreasing trend of compound chilling-rainy events for late-rice. We also found that the occurrence and duration of concurrent CEs were negatively correlated with local temperature-moisture coupling. Temperature was the dominant factor influencing the change of compound hot-dry events. While for the change in compound chilling-rainy events, the effect of temperature is only slightly larger than that of moisture.
Weihang Liu, Tao Ye, Christoph Müller, Jonas Jägermeyr, James A. Franke, Haynes Stephens, and Shuo Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7203–7221, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a machine-learning-based crop model emulator with the inputs and outputs of multiple global gridded crop model ensemble simulations to capture the year-to-year variation of crop yield under future climate change. The emulator can reproduce the year-to-year variation of simulated yield given by the crop models under CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen perturbations. Developing this emulator can provide a tool to project future climate change impact in a simple way.
Ruoque Shen, Baihong Pan, Qiongyan Peng, Jie Dong, Xuebing Chen, Xi Zhang, Tao Ye, Jianxi Huang, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3203–3222, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Paddy rice is the second-largest grain crop in China and plays an important role in ensuring global food security. This study developed a new rice-mapping method and produced distribution maps of single-season rice in 21 provincial administrative regions of China from 2017 to 2022 at a 10 or 20 m resolution. The accuracy was examined using 108 195 survey samples and county-level statistical data, and we found that the distribution maps have good accuracy.
Ran Sun, Tao Ye, Yiqing Liu, Weihang Liu, and Shuo Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-8, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-8, 2024
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We found increasing trend of compound hot-dry events for single-rice but decreasing trend of compound chilling-rainy events for late-rice. We also found that the occurrence and duration of concurrent CEs were negatively correlated with local temperature-moisture coupling. Temperature was the dominant factor influencing the change of compound hot-dry events. While for the change in compound chilling-rainy events, the effect of temperature is only slightly larger than that of moisture.
Weihang Liu, Tao Ye, Christoph Müller, Jonas Jägermeyr, James A. Franke, Haynes Stephens, and Shuo Chen
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7203–7221, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We develop a machine-learning-based crop model emulator with the inputs and outputs of multiple global gridded crop model ensemble simulations to capture the year-to-year variation of crop yield under future climate change. The emulator can reproduce the year-to-year variation of simulated yield given by the crop models under CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen perturbations. Developing this emulator can provide a tool to project future climate change impact in a simple way.
Ruoque Shen, Baihong Pan, Qiongyan Peng, Jie Dong, Xuebing Chen, Xi Zhang, Tao Ye, Jianxi Huang, and Wenping Yuan
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 3203–3222, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-3203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Paddy rice is the second-largest grain crop in China and plays an important role in ensuring global food security. This study developed a new rice-mapping method and produced distribution maps of single-season rice in 21 provincial administrative regions of China from 2017 to 2022 at a 10 or 20 m resolution. The accuracy was examined using 108 195 survey samples and county-level statistical data, and we found that the distribution maps have good accuracy.
Wentao Yang, Lianyou Liu, and Peijun Shi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3215–3224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3215-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3215-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analysed deformation of a moving slope along the Jinsha River from November 2015 to November 2019. The slope is 80 km downstream from the famous Baige landslide, which caused two mega floods affecting downstream communities. This slope was relatively stable for the first 3 years (2015–2018) but moved significantly in the last year (2018–2019). The deformation is linked to seasonal precipitation. If this slope continues to slide downwards, it may have similar impacts to the Baige landslide.
Siyuan Zhou, Jing Yang, Wei-Chyung Wang, Chuanfeng Zhao, Daoyi Gong, and Peijun Shi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5211–5229, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5211-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5211-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol–cloud–precipitation interaction is a challenging problem in regional climate. Our study contrasted the observed diurnal variation of heavy rainfall and associated clouds over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei between clean and polluted days during the 2002–2012 summers. We found the heavy rainfall under pollution has earlier start time, earlier peak time and longer duration, and further found the absorbing aerosols and scattering aerosols play different roles in the heavy rainfall diurnal variation.
Pan Hu, Qiang Zhang, Chong-Yu Xu, Shao Sun, and Jiayi Fang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-73, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-73, 2019
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
China is the country highly sensitive to flood disasters. Here we investigated flood disasters and relevant driving factors using meteorological disaster records s and also hourly rainfall data. We used the GeoDetector method to analyze potential driving factors behind flood disasters. We found increased rainstorm-induced flood disasters and increase in flood disaster frequency. Meanwhile, reduced flood-related death rates imply enhanced flood-mitigation infrastructure and facilities.
Jianyu Liu, Qiang Zhang, Vijay P. Singh, Changqing Song, Yongqiang Zhang, Peng Sun, and Xihui Gu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4047–4060, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4047-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4047-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Considering effective precipitation (Pe), the Budyko framework was extended to the annual water balance analysis. To reflect the mismatch between water supply (precipitation, P) and energy (potential evapotranspiration,
E0), a climate seasonality and asynchrony index (SAI) were proposed in terms of both phase and amplitude mismatch between P and E0.
Qiang Zhang, Xihui Gu, Vijay P. Singh, Peijun Shi, and Peng Sun
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2637–2653, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2637-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2637-2018, 2018
Jianfeng Li, Thian Yew Gan, Yongqin David Chen, Qiang Zhang, Zengyun Hu, and Xihui Gu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-359, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-359, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation extremes are localized and spatially heterogeneous events. Previous studies showed that estimation of magnitudes of extremes is sensitive to spatial resolutions. Our results show that projected changes in extremes between future and historical periods, a commonly used metric in climate projections, are insensitive to spatial resolutions. Given the considerable discrepancies among GCM outputs, the impacts of spatial resolutions on projected changes are negligible.
Jidong Wu, Xu Wang, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-17, 2017
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Building stock loss occupied a meaningful part of sudden-onset disasters, while raster-level building asset distribution map is scarce and not sufficient for disaster risk estimation. This paper introduces an efficient way for building asset value mapping by downscaling, given that the statistical building floor area and a building footprint map are available. It is expected that the method used in this paper is transferable to be applied in other cities if the two datasets are all available.
Y. Meng, S. Yang, P. Shi, and C. C. Jeager
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2273–2281, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2273-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2273-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a gravity model tailed to China’s national circumstances and taking into account the natural disaster impact. China’s natural disasters increase exports, but they have no significant impact on imports. Trading partner countries’ natural disasters reduce Chinese imports and exports. The impact of natural disasters on trade is asymmetric and significantly affected by other factors, like development level and land area.
W. T. Yang, M. Wang, N. Kerle, C. J. Van Westen, L. Y. Liu, and P. J. Shi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 817–825, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-817-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-817-2015, 2015
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: Lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree River basin, Germany
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
A Guide of Indicators Creation for Critical Infrastructures Resilience. Based on a Multi-criteria Framework Focusing on Optimisation Actions for Road Transport System
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
The role of response efficacy and self-efficacy in disaster preparedness actions for vulnerable households
Scientists as storytellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Dynamic Response of Pile-Slab Retaining Wall Structure under Rockfall Impact
Back analysis of a building collapse under snow and rain loads in a Mediterranean area
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific-technical capabilities and local realities: a novel modular approach for multi-risk assessment
Assessment of building damage and risk under extreme flood scenarios in Shanghai
Mangrove ecosystem properties regulate high water levels in a river delta
Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Criteria-based visualization design for hazard maps
Low-regret climate change adaptation in coastal megacities – evaluating large-scale flood protection and small-scale rainwater detention measures for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Modeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally applicable framework: a pilot in the Sofala province of Mozambique
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Using machine learning algorithms to identify predictors of social vulnerability in the event of a hazard: Istanbul case study
Large-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regions
Probabilistic and machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in power outage prediction due to extreme events
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1188, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The disaster impacts were largely associated with a fast urban expansion over the last three decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Also, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-758, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances will increase in the future endangering our forests and their provision of wood, protection against natural hazards and carbon sequestration. Considering the hazard to forests by wind or fire damage together with vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize high-risk forest stands. In this study we propose a new methodological approach helping with decision-making process for climate-smart forest management.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-59, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in water management, spatial and landscape planning in the Spree River basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this planning gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures and the adaptation of best practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-204, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Operationalision of “resilience” will be a major milestone contributing to hazard management for Critical infrastructures (CIs). To integrate resilience assessment into operational management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables users to create specific indicators to suit their particular situation. The assessment results can assist CIs managers in their decision-making as it is based on a multi-criteria framework that considers the various interests of stakeholders.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
SLR will lead to more frequent flooding, and salt intrusion in coastal areas will be a major concern for farming households that are highly dependent on the soil quality for their livelihoods. In this study, we simulated the risk of SLR and flooding to coastal farmers by assessing salt intrusion risk and flood damage to buildings.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2715, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript addresses to numerically analyze the dynamic responses and damage mechanism of the pile-slab retaining wall under the rockfall impacts by employing the refined finite element model. The results provide insights into structure dynamic response analysis of the PSRW and serve as a benchmark for further research.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-142, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction on the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-hazard risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructures to increase their capabilities.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, and Zacharias Fasoulakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-137, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses which can impact population and assets of different types. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess the feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed to facilitate a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
Cited articles
Anderson, D., Davidson, R. A., Himoto, K., and Scawthorn, C.: Statistical
Modeling of Fire Occurrence Using Data from the Tōhoku, Japan Earthquake
and Tsunami, Risk Anal., 36, 378–395, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12455, 2016.
Bai, Y., Zhang, X., and Xu, P.: The Snow Disaster Risk Assessment of Animal
Husbandry in Qinghai Province, J. Qinghai Norm. Univers. (Nat. Sci.), 1, 71–77,
https://doi.org/10.16229/j.cnki.issn1001-7542.2011.01.004, 2011.
Basang, D., Barthel, K., and Olseth, J.: Satellite and Ground Observations of
Snow Cover in Tibet during 2001–2015, Remote Sens., 9, 1201, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9111201, 2017.
Birkmann, J. and Welle, T.: The WorldRiskIndex 2016: Reveals the Necessity for
Regional Cooperation in Vulnerability Reduction, J. Extrem. Events, 03, 1650005,
https://doi.org/10.1142/S2345737616500056, 2016.
Carleton, T. A. and Hsiang, S. M.: Social and economic impacts of climate,
Science, 353, 6304, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad9837, 2016.
Chen, Y. Y., Yang, K., He, J., Qin, J., Shi, J., Du, J., and He, Q.: Improving
land surface temperature modeling for dry land of China, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
116, D20104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD015921, 2011.
China Meteorological Administration: China Meteorological Disaster Yearbook (2004-2016),
Meteorological Press, Beijing, 2004–2016.
Deng, X., Barnett, B. J., and Vedenov, D. V.: Is There a Viable Market for
Area-Based Crop Insurance?, Am. J. Agric. Econ., 89, 508–519, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2007.00975.x, 2007.
Department of Agricultural and Pastoral of Tibet Autonomous Region: Grassland
Resources and Ecological Statistical Data, China Agricultural Press, Beijing, 2011.
Diffenbaugh, N. S. and Giorgi, F.: Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global
limate model ensemble, Climatic Change, 114, 813–822, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0570-x, 2012.
Dong, S. and Sherman, R.: Enhancing the resilience of coupled human and natural
systems of alpine rangelands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Rangel. J., 37,
i–iii, https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ14117, 2015.
Duo, C., Xie, H., Wang, P., Guo, J., La, J., Qiu, Y., and Zheng, Z.: Snow cover
variation over the Tibetan Plateau from MODIS and comparison with ground
observations, J. Appl. Remote Sens., 8, 084690, https://doi.org/10.1117/1.JRS.8.084690, 2014.
Editorial Committee of Vegetation Map of China, C. A. of S. and Chinese Academy
of Science: Vegetation map of the People's Republic of China (1:1 000 000),
edited by: Zhang, X., Geological Press, Beijing, 2007.
Elith, J., Leathwick, J. R., and Hastie, T.: A working guide to boosted
regression trees, J. Anim. Ecol., 77, 802–813, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01390.x, 2008.
Fang, Y., Zhao, C., Ding, Y., Qin, D., and Huang, J.: Impacts of snow disaster
on meat production and adaptation?: an empirical analysis in the yellow river
source region, Sustain. Sci., 11, 249–260, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-015-0325-5, 2016.
FAO: Grassland of the World, Aavailable at: http://www.fao.org/docrep/008/y8344e/y8344e05.htm
and http://www.fao.org/docrep/008/y8344e/y8344e08.htm (last access: 28 March 2019), 2005.
Fernández-Giménez, M. E., Batkhishig, B., and Batbuyan, B.:
Cross-boundary and cross-level dynamics increase vulnerability to severe winter
disasters (dzud) in Mongolia, Global Environ. Change, 22, 836–851,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.07.001, 2012.
Fernández-Giménez, M. E., Batkhishig, B., Batbuyan, B., and Ulambayar,
T.: Lessons from the Dzud: Community-Based Rangeland Management Increases the
Adaptive Capacity of Mongolian Herders to Winter Disasters, World Dev., 68,
48–65, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.11.015, 2015.
Gao, J.: Analysis and assessment of the risk of snow and freezing disaster in
China, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 19, 334–340, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.IJDRR.2016.09.007, 2016.
Gao, Q., Guo, Y., Xu, H., Ganjurjav, H., Li, Y., Wan, Y., Qin, X., Ma, X., and
Liu, S.: Climate change and its impacts on vegetation distribution and net
primary productivity of the alpine ecosystem in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,
Sci. Total Environ., 554–555, 34–41, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.02.131, 2016.
Gu, H., Yu, Z., Wang, J., Ju, Q., Yang, C., and Fan, C.: Climate change hotspots
identification in China through the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble, Adv.
Meteorol., 2014, 963196, https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/963196, 2014.
Hao, L., Wang, J., Man, S., and Yang, C.: Spatio-temporal change of snow
disaster and analysis of vulnerability of animal husbandry in China, J. Nat.
Disast., 11, 42–48, 2002.
Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., and Friedman, J.: The Elements of Statistical
Learning, Elements, 1, 337–387, https://doi.org/10.1007/b94608, 2009.
He, J. and Yang, K.: China Meteorological Forcing Dataset, Cold Arid Reg. Sci.
Data Cent., Lanzhou, https://doi.org/10.3972/westdc.002.2014.db, 2011.
Hijmans, R. J., Phillips, S., Leathwick, J. R., and Elith, J.: Package “dismo”,
R Packag., available at: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/dismo/index.html
last access: 28 March 2019), 2017.
Jongman, B., Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Coughlan de Perez, E.,
van Aalst, M. K., Kron, W., and Ward, P. J.: Declining vulnerability to river
floods and the global benefits of adaptation, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112,
E2271-80, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1414439112, 2015.
Kinoshita, Y., Tanoue, M., Watanabe, S., and Hirabayashi, Y.: Quantifying the
effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application
to future flood risk assessments, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 014006,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9401, 2018.
Kuang, X. and Jiao, J. J.: Review on climate change on the Tibetan Plateau
during the last half century, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 3979–4007,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024728, 2016.
Land Management Administration of Tibet Autonomous Region: Grassland Resources
in the Tibet Autonomous Region, Science Press, Beijing, 1994.
Li, F., Hou, G., E, C., Liu, Z., Jiang, Y., and Xi, Y.: Township unit-based
risk assessment of snowstorm hazard in Guoluo Prefecure of Qinghai Plateau,
J. Nat. Disast., 23, 141–148, 2014.
Li, Y., Ye, T., Liu, W., and Gao, Y.: Linking livestock snow disaster mortality
and environmental stressors in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: Quantification based
on generalized additive models, Sci. Total Environ., 625, 87–95,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.230, 2018.
Liu, F., Mao, X., Zhang, Y., Chen, Q., Liu, P., and Zhao, Z.: Risk analysis of
snow disaster in the pastoral areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, J. Geogr. Sci.,
24, 411–426, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-014-1097-z, 2014.
Mechler, R., Hochrainer, S., Pflug, G., Lotsch, A., and Williges, K.: Assessing
the Financial Vulnerability to Climate-Related Natural Hazards, available at:
https://ssrn.com/abstract=1565993 (last access: 20 May 2018), 2010.
Michel-Kerjan, E. O. and Kousky, C.: Come Rain or Shine: Evidence on Flood
Insurance Purchases in Florida, J. Risk Insur., 77, 369–397, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2009.01349.x, 2010.
Michel-Kerjan, E., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Kunreuther, H., Linnerooth-Bayer,
J., Mechler, R., Muir-Wood, R., Ranger, N., Vaziri, P., and Young, M.:
Catastrophe risk models for evaluating disaster risk reduction investments in
developing countries, Risk Anal., 33, 984–999, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01928.x, 2013.
Miller, D. J.: The Tibetan Steppe, in: Grasslands of the World, edited by:
Suttie, J. M., Reynolds, S. G., and Batello, C.,Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations, Rome, 305–341, available at: http://www.fao.org/docrep/008/y8344e/y8344e00.htm
(last access: 28 March 2019), 2005.
Muis, S., Güneralp, B., Jongman, B., Aerts, J. C. J. H., and Ward, P. J.:
Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion:
A probabilistic analysis using global data, Sci. Total Environ., 538, 445–457,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.SCITOTENV.2015.08.068, 2015.
Mukund Palat, R., Nicole, K. D., Rosanne, D. D., Jerry, S., Baatarbileg, N.,
Caroline, L., Bradfield, L., Shih-Yu, W., and Oyunsanaa, B.: Dzuds, droughts,
and livestock mortality in Mongolia, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 74012, https://doi.org/10.7916/d8q81d7s, 2015.
Nandintsetseg, B., Shinoda, M., Du, C., and Munkhjargal, E.: Cold-season
disasters on the Eurasian steppes: Climate-driven or man-made, Sci. Rep., 8,
14769, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-33046-1, 2018.
Oppel, S., Meirinho, A., Ramírez, I., Gardner, B., O'Connell, A. F., Miller,
P. I., and Louzao, M.: Comparison of five modelling techniques to predict the
spatial distribution and abundance of seabirds, Biol. Conserv., 156, 94–104,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.BIOCON.2011.11.013, 2012.
Pang, G., Wang, X., and Yang, M.: Using the NDVI to identify variations in, and
responses of, vegetation to climate change on the Tibetan Plateau from 1982
to 2012, Quatern. Int., 444, 87–96, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2016.08.038, 2017.
Qin, D., Zhang, J., Shan, C., and Song, L.: China national assessment report
on risk management and adaptation of climate extremes and disasters, Science
Press, Beijing, 2015.
Shang, Z. H., Gibb, M. J., and Long, R. J.: Effect of snow disasters on livestock
farming in some rangeland regions of China and mitigation strategies – A review,
Rangel. J., 34, 89–101, https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ11052, 2012.
Shi, P. (Ed.): Atlas of Natural Disaster Risk of China, Scientific Press, Beijing, 2011.
Shi, P. and Kasperson, R. E.: World Atlas of Natural Disaster Risk, Beijing
Normal University Press and Springer, Beijing, 2015.
Silverman, B.: Density estimation for statistics and data analysis, in:
Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability, Chapman and Hall, London, 1986.
Sternberg, T.: Investigating the presumed causal links between drought and dzud
in Mongolia, Nat. Hazards, 92, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2848-9, 2017.
Tachiiri, K. and Shinoda, M.: Quantitative risk assessment for future
meteorological disasters: Reduced livestock mortality in Mongolia, Climatic
Change, 113, 867–882, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0365-5, 2012.
Tachiiri, K., Shinoda, M., Klinkenberg, B., and Morinaga, Y.: Assessing
Mongolian snow disaster risk using livestock and satellite data, J. Arid Environ.,
72, 2251–2263, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2008.06.015, 2008.
UNISDR: Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, in: Third
World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, 14–18 March 2015, Sendai, Japan, 1–25, 2015.
Wang, H. H. and Zhang, H.: On the Possibility of a Private Crop Insurance Market:
A Spatial Statistics Approach, J. Risk Insur., 70, 111–124, https://doi.org/10.1111/1539-6975.00051, 2003.
Wang, J., Brown, D. G., and Agrawal, A.: Climate adaptation, local institutions,
and rural livelihoods: A comparative study of herder communities in Mongolia
and Inner Mongolia, China, Global Environ. Change, 23, 1673–1683,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.08.014, 2013.
Wang, J., Wang, Y., and Wang, S.: Biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of the
dynamics in snow hazard impacts across scales and over heterogeneous landscape
in Northern Tibet, Nat. Hazards, 81, 1499–1514, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2142-7, 2016.
Wang, W., Liang, T., Huang, X., Feng, Q., Xie, H., Liu, X., Chen, M., and Wang,
X.: Early warning of snow-caused disasters in pastoral areas on the Tibetan
Plateau, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1411–1425, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1411-2013, 2013.
Wang, Y., Wang, J., Li, S., and Qin, D.: Vulnerability of the Tibetan pastoral
systems to climate and global change, Ecol. Soc., 19, 8, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-06803-190408, 2014.
Wei, Y., Wang, S., Fang, Y., and Nawaz, Z.: Integrated assessment on the
vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disasters under climate change in the
Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Global Planet. Change, 157, 139–152, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.08.017, 2017.
Wen, K.: China meteorological disasters catalog (Qinghai, Tibet, Gansu, Xinjiang,
and Sichuan Volumes), Meteorological Press, Beijing, 2008.
Wu, J., Li, N., Yang, H., and Li, C.: Risk evaluation of heavy snow disasters
using BP artificial neural network: the case of Xilingol in Inner Mongolia,
Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk A., 22, 719–725, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-007-0181-7, 2007.
Xin, Y., Du, T., Xin, Y., Wu, A., and Lu, F.: The Evaluation of Carrying
Capacity of Grassland in Qinghai, Qinghai Prataculture, 20, 13–22, 2011.
Yang, K., He, J., Tang, W., Qin, J., and Cheng, C. C. K.: On downward shortwave
and longwave radiations over high altitude regions: Observation and modeling
in the Tibetan Plateau, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 150, 38–46, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2009.08.004, 2010.
Ye, T., Li, Y., Gao, Y., Wang, J., and Yi, M.: Designing index-based livestock
insurance for managing snow disaster risk in Eastern Inner Mongolia, China, Int.
J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 23, 160–168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.04.013, 2017.
Ye, T., Wu, J., Li, Y., and Gao, Y.: Designing index-based livestock insurance
for managing snow disaster risk in the central Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau,
Research Report Funded by the International Center for Collaborative Research
on Disaster Risk Reduction (ICCR-DRR), available at:
http://iccr-drr.bnu.edu.cn/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Designing-index-based-livestock-insurance-for-managing-snow
(last access: 28 March 2019), 2018.
Ye, T., Li, Y., Liu, W., and Gao, Y.: Data set for analyzing livestock snow
disasters in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, Data Brief, 23, 103809, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2019.103809, 2019.
Yeh, E. T., Nyima, Y., Hopping, K. A., and Klein, J. A.: Tibetan Pastoralists'
Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Political Ecology Analysis of Snowstorm
Coping Capacity, Hum. Ecol., 42, 61–74, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-013-9625-5, 2014.
Yin, H., Cao, C., Xu, M., Chen, W., Ni, X., and Chen, X.: Long-term snow
disasters during 1982–2012 in the Tibetan Plateau using satellite data,
Geomatics, Nat. Hazards Risk, 8, 466–477, https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2016.1238851, 2017.
You, Q., Kang, S., Ren, G., Fraedrich, K., Pepin, N., Yan, Y., and Ma, L.:
Observed changes in snow depth and number of snow days in the eastern and
central Tibetan Plateau, Clim. Res., 46, 171–183, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00985, 2011.
Youssef, A. M., Pourghasemi, H. R., Pourtaghi, Z. S., and Al-Katheeri, M. M.:
Landslide susceptibility mapping using random forest, boosted regression tree,
classification and regression tree, and general linear models and comparison
of their performance at Wadi Tayyah Basin, Asir Region, Saudi Arabia, Landslides,
13, 839–856, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-015-0614-1, 2016.
Yuan, W., Xu, W., Ma, M., Chen, S., Liu, W., and Cui, L.: Improved snow cover
model in terrestrial ecosystem models over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Agr.
Forest Meteorol., 218–219, 161–170, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.12.004, 2016.
Zhang, Y. J., Zhang, X. Q., Wang, X. Y., Liu, N., and Kan, H. M.: Establishing
the carrying capacity of the grasslands of China: A review, Rangel. J., 36,
1–9, https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ13033, 2014.
Short summary
Livestock and their owners in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau has long suffered from snow disaster. In order to help the local herder community better prepare for potential loss, we developed a probabilistic disaster-event simulation approach, from which livestock loss induced by a snow disaster with specific intensity and local prevention capacity could be predicted. By using this method, we managed to estimate snow disaster duration, livestock loss rate, and number at different return periods.
Livestock and their owners in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau has long suffered from snow...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint