Articles | Volume 19, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1189-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1189-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Jun 2019
Research article |
| 17 Jun 2019
| 17 Jun 2019
A high-resolution spatial assessment of the impacts of drought variability on vegetation activity in Spain from 1981 to 2015
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Spanish National Research
Council (IPE-CSIC), Campus de Aula Dei, P.O. Box 13034, 50059 Saragossa,
Spain
Cesar Azorin-Molina
Department of Earth Sciences, Regional Climate Group,
University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
Marina Peña-Gallardo
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Spanish National Research
Council (IPE-CSIC), Campus de Aula Dei, P.O. Box 13034, 50059 Saragossa,
Spain
Miquel Tomas-Burguera
Estación
Experimental de Aula Dei, Spanish National Research Council (EEAD-CSIC),
Saragossa, Spain
Fernando Domínguez-Castro
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Spanish National Research
Council (IPE-CSIC), Campus de Aula Dei, P.O. Box 13034, 50059 Saragossa,
Spain
Natalia Martín-Hernández
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Spanish National Research
Council (IPE-CSIC), Campus de Aula Dei, P.O. Box 13034, 50059 Saragossa,
Spain
Santiago Beguería
Estación
Experimental de Aula Dei, Spanish National Research Council (EEAD-CSIC),
Saragossa, Spain
Ahmed El Kenawy
Department of Geography, Mansoura University, 35516,
Mansoura, Egypt
Iván Noguera
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Spanish National Research
Council (IPE-CSIC), Campus de Aula Dei, P.O. Box 13034, 50059 Saragossa,
Spain
Mónica García
Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical
University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark
Related authors
Magí Franquesa, Fergus Reig, Manuel Arretxea, Maria Adell-Michavila, Amar Halifa-Marín, Daniel Vilas, Santiago Beguería, and Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-351, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-351, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Our study created a unique database that tracks vegetation health across Spain and the Balearic Islands from 1981 to now, updated every two weeks. By using satellite images from multiple sources, we provide accurate and consistent data that helps detect changes in vegetation due to factors like fires. This tool is crucial for farmers, environmental managers, and policymakers to monitor and protect plant life, ensuring better management of natural resources and agricultural productivity.
Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Jian Peng, Ellen Dyer, Diego G. Miralles, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Chris Funk, Hylke E. Beck, Dagmawi T. Asfaw, Michael B. Singer, and Simon J. Dadson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5449–5466, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5449-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is undeniably one of the most intricate and significant natural hazards with far-reaching consequences for the environment, economy, water resources, agriculture, and societies across the globe. In response to this challenge, we have devised high-resolution drought indices. These indices serve as invaluable indicators for assessing shifts in drought patterns and their associated impacts on a global, regional, and local level facilitating the development of tailored adaptation strategies.
Jian Peng, Simon Dadson, Feyera Hirpa, Ellen Dyer, Thomas Lees, Diego G. Miralles, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, and Chris Funk
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 753–769, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-753-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Africa has been severely influenced by intense drought events, which has led to crop failure, food shortages, famine, epidemics and even mass migration. The current study developed a high spatial resolution drought dataset entirely from satellite-based products. The dataset has been comprehensively inter-compared with other drought indicators and may contribute to an improved characterization of drought risk and vulnerability and minimize drought's impact on water and food security in Africa.
Miquel Tomas-Burguera, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Santiago Beguería, Fergus Reig, and Borja Latorre
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1917–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1917-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1917-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A database of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was obtained and made publicly available for Spain covering the 1961–2014 period at a spatial resolution of 1.1 km. Previous to ETo calculation, data of required climate variables were interpolated and validated, and the uncertainty was estimated. Obtained ETo values can be used to calculate irrigation requirements, improve drought studies (our main motivation) and study the impact of climate change, as a positive trend was detected.
Pauline Rivoire, Yves Tramblay, Luc Neppel, Elke Hertig, and Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1629–1638, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1629-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1629-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In order to define a dry period, a threshold for wet days is usually considered to account for measurement errors and evaporation. In the present study, we compare the threshold of 1 mm d−1, the most commonly used threshold, to a time-varying threshold describing evapotranspiration to compare how the risk of extreme dry spells is estimated with both thresholds. Results indicate that considering a fixed threshold can underestimate extreme dry spells during the extended summer.
Marina Peña-Gallardo, Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, and Santiago Beguería
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1215–1234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1215-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1215-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Drought events are of great importance in most Mediterranean climate regions, and the impacts caused on rainfed crops are particularly evident. In this study the impacts of drought on two representative rainfed crops in Spain (wheat and barley) are assessed by testing various worldwide drought indices and two datasets at different spatial resolution.
Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Miquel Tomás-Burguera, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Santiago Beguería, Ahmed El Kenawy, Yolanda Luna, and Ana Morata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 611–628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-611-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped – for the first time – the probability of occurrence of drought over Spain, with the overriding aim of improving current drought assessment, management and mitigation measures, and strategies across the region. Spatially, our estimations suggest a higher probability of extreme drought events in southern and central areas of Spain compared to northern and eastern regions. Nevertheless, there are strong differences among drought indices and drought timescales.
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Anita Drumond, Ahmed El Kenawy, Fernando Dominguez-Castro, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, and Marina Peña-Gallardo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 915–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-915-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-915-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed changes in surface relative humidity (RH) at the global scale from 1979 to 2014 and compared the variability and trends in RH with those in land evapotranspiration and ocean evaporation in moisture source areas across a range of selected regions worldwide. Our results stress that the different hypotheses that may explain the decrease in RH under a global warming scenario could act together to explain recent RH trends.
Patrícia Páscoa, Célia M. Gouveia, Ana C. Russo, Roxana Bojariu, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-264, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-264, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Rogert Sorí, Raquel Nieto, Anita Drumond, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, and Luis Gimeno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6379–6399, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6379-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6379-2017, 2017
Rogert Sorí, Raquel Nieto, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Anita Drumond, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 653–675, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-653-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-653-2017, 2017
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo, Ahmed El Kenawy, Natalia Martín-Hernández, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Santiago Beguería, and Miquel Tomas-Burguera
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3393–3410, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3393-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3393-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we analyse the recent evolution and meteorological drivers of the atmospheric evaporative demand in the Canary Islands. We found that the reference evapotranspiration increased by 18.2 mm decade−1 – on average – between 1961 and 2013, with the highest increase recorded during summer. This increase was mainly driven by changes in the aerodynamic component, caused by a statistically significant reduction of the relative humidity.
Anita Drumond, Erica Taboada, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, and Juan Ignacio López-Moreno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 549–558, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-549-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-549-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A Lagrangian approach was used to identify the moisture sources for fourteen ice-core sites located worldwide for the present climate. The approach computed budgets of evaporation minus precipitation by calculating changes in the specific humidity along 10-day backward trajectories. The results indicate that the oceanic regions around the subtropical high-pressure centers provide most of moisture, and their contribution varies throughout the year following the annual cycles of the centers.
Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, Jesús Revuelto, Ibai Rico, Javier Chueca-Cía, Asunción Julián, Alfredo Serreta, Enrique Serrano, Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Esteban Alonso-González, and José María García-Ruiz
The Cryosphere, 10, 681–694, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-681-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-681-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyzes the evolution of the Monte Perdido Glacier, Spanish Pyrenees, since 1981. Changes in ice volume were estimated by geodetic methods and terrestrial laser scanning. An acceleration in ice thinning is detected during the 21st century. Local climatic changes observed during the study period do not seem sufficient to explain the acceleration. The strong disequilibrium between the glacier and the current climate and feedback mechanisms seems to be the most plausible explanation.
J. Revuelto, J. I. López-Moreno, C. Azorin-Molina, and S. M. Vicente-Serrano
The Cryosphere, 8, 1989–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1989-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1989-2014, 2014
E. Morán-Tejeda, J. Zabalza, K. Rahman, A. Gago-Silva, J. I. López-Moreno, S. Vicente-Serrano, A. Lehmann, C. L. Tague, and M. Beniston
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-11983-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-11983-2013, 2013
Manuscript not accepted for further review
J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, E. Morán-Tejeda, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, and J. I. López-Moreno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 119–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-119-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-119-2013, 2013
Soledad Collazo, David Barriopedro, Ricardo García-Herrera, and Santiago Beguería
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-792, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-792, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In the 2023/24 season, Rio de Janeiro experienced record-breaking heatwaves linked to climate change and El Niño. Our study shows global warming made these extreme temperatures at least 2°C hotter than in pre-industrial times. Heat-related deaths surged, with climate change contributing to 1 in 3 fatalities during the peak event. Without adaptation, future heatwaves will claim even more lives. This underscores the urgent need for policies to mitigate climate impacts from escalating heat threats.
Magí Franquesa, Fergus Reig, Manuel Arretxea, Maria Adell-Michavila, Amar Halifa-Marín, Daniel Vilas, Santiago Beguería, and Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-351, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-351, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
Our study created a unique database that tracks vegetation health across Spain and the Balearic Islands from 1981 to now, updated every two weeks. By using satellite images from multiple sources, we provide accurate and consistent data that helps detect changes in vegetation due to factors like fires. This tool is crucial for farmers, environmental managers, and policymakers to monitor and protect plant life, ensuring better management of natural resources and agricultural productivity.
Yi Liu, Lihong Zhou, Yingzuo Qin, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Cheng Shen, Rongrong Xu, and Zhenzhong Zeng
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1123–1131, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1123-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1123-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our research analyzed China's wind speed data and addressed inconsistencies caused by factors like equipment changes and station relocations. After improving data quality, China's recent wind speed decrease reduced by 41 %, revealing an increasing trend. This emphasizes the importance of rigorous data processing for accurate trend assessments in various research fields.
Solomon H. Gebrechorkos, Jian Peng, Ellen Dyer, Diego G. Miralles, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Chris Funk, Hylke E. Beck, Dagmawi T. Asfaw, Michael B. Singer, and Simon J. Dadson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5449–5466, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5449-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is undeniably one of the most intricate and significant natural hazards with far-reaching consequences for the environment, economy, water resources, agriculture, and societies across the globe. In response to this challenge, we have devised high-resolution drought indices. These indices serve as invaluable indicators for assessing shifts in drought patterns and their associated impacts on a global, regional, and local level facilitating the development of tailored adaptation strategies.
Santiago Beguería, Dhais Peña-Angulo, Víctor Trullenque-Blanco, and Carlos González-Hidalgo
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2547–2575, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2547-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2547-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A gridded dataset on monthly precipitation over mainland Spain between spans 1916–2020. The dataset combines ground observations from the Spanish National Climate Data Bank and new data rescued from meteorological yearbooks published prior to 1951, which almost doubled the number of weather stations available during the first decades of the 20th century. Geostatistical techniques were used to interpolate a regular 10 x 10 km grid.
Yubo Liu, Monica Garcia, Chi Zhang, and Qiuhong Tang
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1925–1936, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1925-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1925-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our findings indicate that the reduction in contribution to the Iberian Peninsula (IP) summer precipitation is mainly concentrated in the IP and its neighboring grids. Compared with 1980–1997, both local recycling and external moisture were reduced during 1998–2019. The reduction in local recycling in the IP closely links to the disappearance of the wet years and the decreasing contribution in the dry years.
Yeonuk Kim, Monica Garcia, Laura Morillas, Ulrich Weber, T. Andrew Black, and Mark S. Johnson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5175–5191, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5175-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5175-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we present a novel physically based evaporation model to demonstrate that vertical relative humidity (RH) gradients from the land surface to the atmosphere tend to evolve towards zero due to land–atmosphere equilibration processes. Collapsing RH gradients on daily to yearly timescales indicate an emergent land–atmosphere equilibrium, making it possible to determine evapotranspiration using only meteorological information, independent of land surface conditions and vegetation controls.
Ana Moreno, Miguel Iglesias, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Carlos Pérez-Mejías, Miguel Bartolomé, Carlos Sancho, Heather Stoll, Isabel Cacho, Jaime Frigola, Cinta Osácar, Arsenio Muñoz, Antonio Delgado-Huertas, Ileana Bladé, and Françoise Vimeux
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 10159–10177, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10159-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-10159-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a large and unique dataset of the rainfall isotopic composition at seven sites from northern Iberia to characterize their variability at daily and monthly timescales and to assess the role of climate and geographic factors in the modulation of δ18O values. We found that the origin, moisture uptake along the trajectory and type of precipitation play a key role. These results will help to improve the interpretation of δ18O paleorecords from lacustrine carbonates or speleothems.
Chiara Bertolin, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, and Lavinia de Ferri
Ann. Geophys., 38, 1139–1147, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-1139-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-1139-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Low-latitude aurorae (LLA) were an uncommon phenomenon not well known or understood in 1780. During our historical manuscript research of high atmospheric phenomena, we came across a document reporting an observation made by the abbot Rozier in Beausejour, France, on 15/08/1780. Thanks to the accuracy of his report, we were able to confirm it was a white, two-band structure LLA. Due to the few existing geomagnetic and solar observations, this is useful new geomagnetic activity proxy data.
Benjamin M. C. Fischer, Laura Morillas, Johanna Rojas Conejo, Ricardo Sánchez-Murillo, Andrea Suárez Serrano, Jay Frentress, Chih-Hsin Cheng, Monica Garcia, Stefano Manzoni, Mark S. Johnson, and Steve W. Lyon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-404, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-404, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated in an upland rice experiment in Costa Rica whether mixing biochar (a charcoal) in soils could increase the resilience of rainfed agriculture to climate variability. We found that rice plants with biochar had access to larger stores of water more consistently and thus could withstand seven extra dry days relative to rice grown in non-treated soils. However, biochar can complement, but not necessarily replace, other water management strategies.
Joan Estrany, Maurici Ruiz-Pérez, Raphael Mutzner, Josep Fortesa, Beatriz Nácher-Rodríguez, Miquel Tomàs-Burguera, Julián García-Comendador, Xavier Peña, Adolfo Calvo-Cases, and Francisco J. Vallés-Morán
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2195–2220, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2195-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2195-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A catastrophic flash-flood event hit the northeastern part of Mallorca in 2018, causing 13 casualties and impacting on the international opinion in one of the most important tourist resorts. The analysis of the rainfall–runoff processes illustrated an unprecedented flashy behaviour in Europe triggering the natural disaster. UAVs and hydrogeomorphological precision techniques were used as a rapid post-catastrophe decision-making tool, playing a key role during the rescue searching tasks.
Sheng Wang, Monica Garcia, Andreas Ibrom, and Peter Bauer-Gottwein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3643–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3643-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3643-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Remote sensing only provides snapshots of rapidly changing land surface variables; this limits its application for water resources and ecosystem management. To obtain continuous estimates of surface temperature, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and ecosystem productivity, a simple and operational modelling scheme is presented. We demonstrate it with temporally sparse optical and thermal remote sensing data from an unmanned aerial system at a Danish bioenergy plantation eddy covariance site.
Jian Peng, Simon Dadson, Feyera Hirpa, Ellen Dyer, Thomas Lees, Diego G. Miralles, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, and Chris Funk
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 753–769, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-753-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Africa has been severely influenced by intense drought events, which has led to crop failure, food shortages, famine, epidemics and even mass migration. The current study developed a high spatial resolution drought dataset entirely from satellite-based products. The dataset has been comprehensively inter-compared with other drought indicators and may contribute to an improved characterization of drought risk and vulnerability and minimize drought's impact on water and food security in Africa.
Miquel Tomas-Burguera, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Santiago Beguería, Fergus Reig, and Borja Latorre
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1917–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1917-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1917-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A database of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was obtained and made publicly available for Spain covering the 1961–2014 period at a spatial resolution of 1.1 km. Previous to ETo calculation, data of required climate variables were interpolated and validated, and the uncertainty was estimated. Obtained ETo values can be used to calculate irrigation requirements, improve drought studies (our main motivation) and study the impact of climate change, as a positive trend was detected.
Roberto Serrano-Notivoli, Santiago Beguería, and Martín de Luis
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1171–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1171-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1171-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Spanish TEmperature At Daily scale (STEAD) is a new daily gridded maximum and minimum temperature dataset for Spain. It covers the whole territory of peninsular Spain and the Balearic and Canary Islands at a 5 km × 5 km spatial resolution for the 1901–2014 period. This product is useful not only for climatic analysis but also to provide support to any other climate-related variable and for decision-making purposes.
Pauline Rivoire, Yves Tramblay, Luc Neppel, Elke Hertig, and Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1629–1638, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1629-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1629-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In order to define a dry period, a threshold for wet days is usually considered to account for measurement errors and evaporation. In the present study, we compare the threshold of 1 mm d−1, the most commonly used threshold, to a time-varying threshold describing evapotranspiration to compare how the risk of extreme dry spells is estimated with both thresholds. Results indicate that considering a fixed threshold can underestimate extreme dry spells during the extended summer.
Marina Peña-Gallardo, Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, and Santiago Beguería
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1215–1234, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1215-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1215-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Drought events are of great importance in most Mediterranean climate regions, and the impacts caused on rainfed crops are particularly evident. In this study the impacts of drought on two representative rainfed crops in Spain (wheat and barley) are assessed by testing various worldwide drought indices and two datasets at different spatial resolution.
Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Miquel Tomás-Burguera, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Santiago Beguería, Ahmed El Kenawy, Yolanda Luna, and Ana Morata
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 611–628, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-611-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-611-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We mapped – for the first time – the probability of occurrence of drought over Spain, with the overriding aim of improving current drought assessment, management and mitigation measures, and strategies across the region. Spatially, our estimations suggest a higher probability of extreme drought events in southern and central areas of Spain compared to northern and eastern regions. Nevertheless, there are strong differences among drought indices and drought timescales.
Filippo Bandini, Daniel Olesen, Jakob Jakobsen, Cecile Marie Margaretha Kittel, Sheng Wang, Monica Garcia, and Peter Bauer-Gottwein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4165–4181, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4165-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4165-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Water depth observations are essential data to forecast flood hazard, predict sediment transport, or monitor in-stream habitats. We retrieved bathymetry with a sonar wired to a drone. This system can improve the speed and spatial scale at which water depth observations are retrieved. Observations can be retrieved also in unnavigable or inaccessible rivers. Water depth observations showed an accuracy of ca. 2.1 % of actual depth, without being affected by water turbidity or bed material.
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Anita Drumond, Ahmed El Kenawy, Fernando Dominguez-Castro, Miquel Tomas-Burguera, and Marina Peña-Gallardo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 915–937, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-915-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-915-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed changes in surface relative humidity (RH) at the global scale from 1979 to 2014 and compared the variability and trends in RH with those in land evapotranspiration and ocean evaporation in moisture source areas across a range of selected regions worldwide. Our results stress that the different hypotheses that may explain the decrease in RH under a global warming scenario could act together to explain recent RH trends.
Patrícia Páscoa, Célia M. Gouveia, Ana C. Russo, Roxana Bojariu, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-264, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-264, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Fernando Domínguez-Castro
Hist. Geo Space. Sci., 9, 79–83, https://doi.org/10.5194/hgss-9-79-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hgss-9-79-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We found an early record of ball lightning, which was observed in the monastery of Pi (Oliva, southeastern Spain) on 18 October 1619. The ball lightning was observed by at least three people and was described as a “rolling burning vessel” and a “ball of fire”. The ball lightning appeared following a lightning flash, showed a mainly horizontal motion, crossed a wall, smudged an image of the Lady of Rebollet (then known as Lady of Pi) and burnt her ruff, and overturned a cross.
Marta Angulo-Martínez, Santiago Beguería, Borja Latorre, and María Fernández-Raga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2811–2837, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2811-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2811-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Two optical disdrometers, OTT Parsivel2 disdrometer and Thies Clima laser precipitation monitor (LPM), are compared. Analysis of 2 years of one-minute replicated data showed significant differences. Thies LPM recorded a larger number of particles than Parsivel2 and a higher proportion of small particles, resulting in higher rain rates and amounts and differences in radar reflectivity and kinetic energy. Possible causes for these differences, and their practical consequences, are discussed.
Rogert Sorí, Raquel Nieto, Anita Drumond, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, and Luis Gimeno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6379–6399, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6379-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6379-2017, 2017
Jesús Revuelto, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Esteban Alonso-González, Alba Sanmiguel-Vallelado, Francisco Navarro-Serrano, Ibai Rico, and Juan Ignacio López-Moreno
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 993–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-993-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-993-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes the snow and meteorological data set available for the Izas Experimental Catchment in the Central Spanish Pyrenees, from the 2011 to 2017 snow seasons. The climatic data set consists of (i) continuous meteorological variables acquired from an automatic weather station (AWS), (ii) detailed information on snow depth distribution collected with a terrestrial laser scanner for certain dates and (iii) time-lapse images showing the evolution of the snow-covered area.
Roberto Serrano-Notivoli, Santiago Beguería, Miguel Ángel Saz, Luis Alberto Longares, and Martín de Luis
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 9, 721–738, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-721-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-9-721-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Spanish PREcipitation At Daily scale (SPREAD) is a new daily gridded precipitation dataset for Spain. It covers the whole territory of peninsular Spain and the Balearic and Canary Islands at a 5 × 5 km spatial resolution for the 1950–2012 period. The research is more than a complex analysis of precipitation in Spain; it provides a product that can be used for both scientific and decision-making policy purposes.
Rogert Sorí, Raquel Nieto, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Anita Drumond, and Luis Gimeno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 653–675, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-653-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-653-2017, 2017
Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Arturo Sanchez-Lorenzo, Ahmed El Kenawy, Natalia Martín-Hernández, Marina Peña-Gallardo, Santiago Beguería, and Miquel Tomas-Burguera
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3393–3410, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3393-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3393-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
In this work we analyse the recent evolution and meteorological drivers of the atmospheric evaporative demand in the Canary Islands. We found that the reference evapotranspiration increased by 18.2 mm decade−1 – on average – between 1961 and 2013, with the highest increase recorded during summer. This increase was mainly driven by changes in the aerodynamic component, caused by a statistically significant reduction of the relative humidity.
Anita Drumond, Erica Taboada, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, and Juan Ignacio López-Moreno
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 549–558, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-549-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-549-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
A Lagrangian approach was used to identify the moisture sources for fourteen ice-core sites located worldwide for the present climate. The approach computed budgets of evaporation minus precipitation by calculating changes in the specific humidity along 10-day backward trajectories. The results indicate that the oceanic regions around the subtropical high-pressure centers provide most of moisture, and their contribution varies throughout the year following the annual cycles of the centers.
Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, Jesús Revuelto, Ibai Rico, Javier Chueca-Cía, Asunción Julián, Alfredo Serreta, Enrique Serrano, Sergio Martín Vicente-Serrano, Cesar Azorin-Molina, Esteban Alonso-González, and José María García-Ruiz
The Cryosphere, 10, 681–694, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-681-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-10-681-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyzes the evolution of the Monte Perdido Glacier, Spanish Pyrenees, since 1981. Changes in ice volume were estimated by geodetic methods and terrestrial laser scanning. An acceleration in ice thinning is detected during the 21st century. Local climatic changes observed during the study period do not seem sufficient to explain the acceleration. The strong disequilibrium between the glacier and the current climate and feedback mechanisms seems to be the most plausible explanation.
P. Pereira, A. Gimeìnez-Morera, A. Novara, S. Keesstra, A. Jordán, R. E. Masto, E. Brevik, C. Azorin-Molina, and A. Cerdà
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-12947-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-12947-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
Road and railway embankments contribute importantly to soil and water losses in South-Eastern Spain. Comparing with other land uses as scrubland and citrus plantations, road and railway embankments increased exponentially the amount of sediment transport and runoff. Restoration programs are needed to decrease soil and water losses in these man-made infrastructures.
J. Revuelto, J. I. López-Moreno, C. Azorin-Molina, and S. M. Vicente-Serrano
The Cryosphere, 8, 1989–2006, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1989-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1989-2014, 2014
E. Morán-Tejeda, J. Zabalza, K. Rahman, A. Gago-Silva, J. I. López-Moreno, S. Vicente-Serrano, A. Lehmann, C. L. Tague, and M. Beniston
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-11983-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-11983-2013, 2013
Manuscript not accepted for further review
J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, E. Morán-Tejeda, S. M. Vicente-Serrano, and J. I. López-Moreno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 119–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-119-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-119-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Evaluation of machine learning approaches for large-scale agricultural drought forecasts to improve monitoring and preparedness in Brazil
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling strength over central Europe in the recent warming climate
A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact drivers in the context of food security
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts: a proof of concept
Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy
Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
The record-breaking precipitation event of December 2022 in Portugal
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
The anomalously thundery month of June 1925 in southwest Spain: description and synoptic analysis
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
Exploring the interplay between observed warming, atmospheric circulation, and soil-atmosphere feedbacks on heatwaves in a temperate mountain region
Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland’s electricity grid: Insights from 92 damaging windstorms
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Review article: The growth in compound weather events research in the decade since SREX
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
Impact-based temporal clustering of multiple meteorological hazard types in southwestern Germany
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
The miscellaneous synoptic forcings in the four-day widespread extreme rainfall event over North China in July 2023
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Temporal dynamic vulnerability – Impact of antecedent events on residential building losses to wind storm events in Germany
Verifying the relationships among the variabilities of summer precipitation extremes over western Japan in the d4PDF climate ensemble, monsoon activity, and Pacific sea surface temperature
An appraisal of the value of simulated weather data for quantifying coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands
The usefulness of Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts for Heat wave forecasts in Europe
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Joseph W. Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1521–1541, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought stress on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) in Brazil. This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Thomas Schwitalla, Lisa Jach, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1405–1424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
During recent decades, Europe has experienced increasing periods of severe drought and heatwave. To provide an overview of how land-surface conditions shape land–atmosphere (LA) coupling, the interannual LA coupling strength variability for the summer seasons of 1991–2022 is investigated by means of ERA5 data. The results clearly reflect ongoing climate change by a shift in the coupling relationships towards reinforced heating and drying by the land surface.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antonio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1387–1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies climate extreme indices to assess climate risks to food security. Using an explainable machine learning analysis, key climate indices affecting maize and soybean yields in Brazil were identified. Results reveal the temporal sensitivity of these indices and critical yield loss thresholds, informing policy and adaptation strategies.
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1377–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the potential of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Our goal was to increase the resistance of agricultural soil to drought stress. We found that adding mixtures of three to five amendment types increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion, and increased fungal abundance while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH. More research is encouraged to validate this approach.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our aim is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a decrease over the 1950–2022 period, which is likely due to a decrease in cold days. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound event occurrence and has likely contributed to the decrease in cold days, while we cannot draw conclusions on its influence on the decrease in compound events.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the correlation between heavy-rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of floods, 14 % of gravitational mass movements, and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017 and 2020 occurred after a heavy-rainfall event, and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events significantly increased. This study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydrohazard for New Zealand and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographical setting.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Marc Lemus-Canovas, Sergi Gonzalez-Herrero, Laura Trapero, Anna Albalat, Damian Insua-Costa, Martin Senande-Rivera, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the 2022 heatwaves in the Pyrenees, examining the factors that contributed to their intensity and distribution. The June event was driven by strong winds that created uneven temperature patterns, while the July heatwave featured calmer conditions and more uniform temperatures. Human-driven climate change has made these heatwaves more severe compared to the past. This research helps us better understand how climate change affects extreme weather in mountainous regions.
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and VIctoria Anne SInclair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The southwest- and northwest-originating windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A persistent severe rainfall event occurred over North China in July 2023, which was regarded as one of the precipitation extremes of 2023 globally. The extreme rainfall was significant underestimated by forecasters at that time. Flooding from this event affected 1.3 million people, causing severe human casualties and significant economic losses. In this study, we examined the convective initiation and subsequent persistent heavy rainfall over North China based on simulations with the WRF model.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andreas Trojand, Henning Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how the intensity of previous windstorm events and the time between two events affect the vulnerability of residential buildings in Germany. By analyzing 23 years of data, it was found that higher intensity of previous events generally reduces vulnerability in subsequent storms, while shorter intervals between events increase vulnerability. The results emphasize the approach of considering vulnerability in risk assessments as temporal dynamic.
Shao-Yi Lee, Sicheng He, and Tetsuya Takemi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Summer rainfall extremes over western Japan were calculated every year, using radar, rain-gauges, and model. Similar regions were determined by machine learning. The relationships between regional rainfall extremes and Pacific climate modes. The modelled relationships were similar to the observed ones for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the warming trend. However, the model did not reproduce the relationship for Pacific Decadal Variability.
Cees de Valk and Henk van den Brink
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recently updated flood safety norms in the Netherlands prescribe that sea dikes and other flood-protecting structures should withstand high sea levels reached very rarely, locally down to only once in 10 million years. We show that such levels can be estimated with reasonable accuracy by the cautious use of very large datasets of numerical simulations of weather and storm surge.
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The skill of hindcasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days (periods with the 5-day moving average temperature being above its local summer 90th percentile) over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead is examined. The heat wave days forecasts show potential in warning of heat risk in 1–2 weeks in advance, and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves, in lead times of up to 3 weeks, when the heat wave had initiated prior to the forecast issuance.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Cited articles
Abrams, M. D., Schultz, J. C., and Kleiner, K. W.: Ecophysiological responses
in mesic versus xeric hardwood species to an early-season drought in central
Pennsylvania, Forest Sci., 36, 970–981, 1990.
Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N.,
Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D. D., Hogg, E. H., T., Gonzalez, P., Fensham, R., Zhang, Z., Castro, J., Demidova, N., Lim,
J.-H., Allard, G., Running, S. W., Semerci, A., and Cobb, N.: A global
overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate
change risks for forests, Forest Ecol. Manag., 259, 660–684,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.001, 2010.
Allen, C. D., Breshears, D. D., and McDowell, N. G.: On underestimation of
global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought
in the Anthropocene, Ecosphere, 6, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00203.1, 2015.
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., and Smith, M.: Crop
Evapotranspiration Guidel, Comput. Crop Water Requir., Add FAo, Rome, 1998.
Anyamba, A. and Tucker, C. J.: Analysis of Sahelian vegetation dynamics using
NOAA-AVHRR NDVI data from 1981–2003, J. Arid Environ., 63, 596–614,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2005.03.007, 2005.
Arzac, A., García-Cervigón, A. I., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Loidi,
J., and Olano, J. M.: Phenological shifts in climatic response of secondary
growth allow Juniperus sabina L. to cope with altitudinal and
temporal climate variability, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 217, 35–45,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.11.011, 2016.
Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Martre, P., Rötter, R. P., Lobell, D. B.,
Cammarano, D., Kimball, B. A., Ottman, M. J., Wall, G. W., White, J. W.,
Reynolds, M. P., Alderman, P. D., Prasad, P. V. V., Aggarwal, P. K., Anothai,
J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Challinor, A. J., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J.,
Fereres, E., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A.,
Izaurralde, R. C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C. D., Kersebaum, K. C., Koehler,
A.-K., Müller, C., Naresh Kumar, S., Nendel, C., O'leary, G., Olesen, J.
E., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Eyshi Rezaei, E., Ruane, A. C., Semenov, M.
A., Shcherbak, I., Stöckle, C., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I.,
Tao, F., Thorburn, P. J., Waha, K., Wang, E., Wallach, D., Wolf, J., Zhao,
Z., and Zhu, Y.: Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production, Nat.
Clim. Change, 5, 143–147, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2470, 2015.
Austin, R. B., Cantero-Martínez, C., Arrúe, J. L., Playán, E.,
and Cano-Marcellán, P.: Yield-rainfall relationships in cereal cropping
systems in the Ebro river valley of Spain, Eur. J. Agron., 8, 239–248,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1161-0301(97)00063-4, 1998.
Bachmair, S., Kohn, I., and Stahl, K.: Exploring the link between drought
indicators and impacts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1381–1397,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1381-2015, 2015.
Bachmair, S., Tanguy, M., Hannaford, J., and Stahl, K.: How well do
meteorological indicators represent agricultural and forest drought across
Europe?, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 034042, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaafda,
2018.
Bailing, M., Zhiyong, L., Cunzhu, L., Lixin, W., Chengzhen, J., Fuxiang, B.,
and Chao, J.: Temporal and spatial heterogeneity of drought impact on
vegetation growth on the Inner Mongolian Plateau, Rangel. J., 40, 113–128,
https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ16097, 2018.
Baldocchi, D. D., Xu, L., and Kiang, N.: How plant functional-type, weather,
seasonal drought, and soil physical properties alter water and energy fluxes
of an oak-grass savanna and an annual grassland, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 123,
13–39, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2003.11.006, 2004.
Barbosa, H. A., Huete, A. R., and Baethgen, W. E.: A 20-year study of NDVI
variability over the Northeast Region of Brazil, J. Arid Environ., 67,
288–307, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.02.022, 2006.
Barker, L. J., Hannaford, J., Chiverton, A., and Svensson, C.: From
meteorological to hydrological drought using standardised indicators, Hydrol.
Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2483–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2483-2016, 2016.
Begueria, S., Latorre, B., Reig, F., and Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: Drought Indices dataset for Spain, available at: http://monitordesequia.csic.es, last access: 29 May 2019.
Berg, A., Sheffield, J., and Milly, P. C. D.: Divergent surface and total
soil moisture projections under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44,
236–244, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071921, 2017.
Bhuiyan, C., Singh, R. P., and Kogan, F. N.: Monitoring drought dynamics in
the Aravalli region (India) using different indices based on ground and
remote sensing data, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf., 8, 289–302,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2006.03.002, 2006.
Breshears, D. D., Cobb, N. S., Rich, P. M., Price, K. P., Allen, C. D.,
Balice, R. G., Romme, W. H., Kastens, J. H., Floyd, M. L., Belnap, J.,
Anderson, J. J., Myers, O. B., and Meyer, C. W.: Regional vegetation die-off
in response to global-change-type drought, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 102,
15144–15148, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0505734102, 2005.
Camarero, J. J., Bigler, C., Linares, J. C., and Gil-Pelegrín, E.:
Synergistic effects of past historical logging and drought on the decline of
Pyrenean silver fir forests, Forest Ecol. Manag., 262, 759–769,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2011.05.009, 2011.
Camarero, J. J., Gazol, A., Sangüesa-Barreda, G., Oliva, J., and
Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: To die or not to die: Early warnings of tree dieback
in response to a severe drought, J. Ecol., 103, 44–57,
https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12295, 2015.
Camarero, J. J., Gazol, A., Sangüesa-Barreda, G., Cantero, A.,
Sánchez-Salguero, R., Sánchez-Miranda, A., Granda, E.,
Serra-Maluquer, X., and Ibáñez, R.: Forest growth responses to
drought at short- and long-term scales in Spain: Squeezing the stress memory
from tree rings, Front. Ecol. Evol., 6, https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2018.00009, 2018.
Carlson, T. N. and Ripley, D. A.: On the relation between NDVI, fractional
vegetation cover, and leaf area index, Remote Sens. Environ., 62, 241–252,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(97)00104-1, 1997.
Carnicer, J., Coll, M., Ninyerola, M., Pons, X., Sánchez, G., and
Peñuelas, J.: Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption,
and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought, P.
Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 1474–1478, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1010070108, 2011.
Castro-Díez, P., Villar-Salvador, P., Pérez-Rontomé, C.,
Maestro-Martínez, M., and Montserrat-Martí, G.: Leaf morphology and
leaf chemical composition in three Quercus (Fagaceae) species along a
rainfall gradient in NE Spain, Trees-Struct. Funct., 11, 127–134,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s004680050068, 1997.
Changnon, S. A. and Easterling, W. E.: Measuring Drought Impacts: The
Illinois Case, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 25, 27–42,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1989.tb05663.x, 1989.
Chaves, M. M., Maroco, J. P., and Pereira, J. S.: Understanding plant
responses to drought – From genes to the whole plant, Funct. Plant Biol.,
30, 239–264, https://doi.org/10.1071/FP02076, 2003.
Ciais, P., Reichstein, M., Viovy, N., Granier, A., Ogée, J., Allard, V.,
Aubinet, M., Buchmann, N., Bernhofer, C., Carrara, A., Chevallier, F., De
Noblet, N., Friend, A. D., Friedlingstein, P., Grünwald, T., Heinesch,
B., Keronen, P., Knohl, A., Krinner, G., Loustau, D., Manca, G., Matteucci,
G., Miglietta, F., Ourcival, J. M., Papale, D., Pilegaard, K., Rambal, S.,
Seufert, G., Soussana, J. F., Sanz, M. J., Schulze, E. D., Vesala, T., and
Valentini, R.: Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the
heat and drought in 2003, Nature, 437, 529–533, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03972,
2005.
Contreras, S. and Hunink, J. E.: Drought effects on rainfed agriculture using
standardized indices: A case study in SE Spain, in Drought: Research and
Science-Policy Interfacing – Proceedings of the International Conference on
Drought: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing, 65–70, 2015.
Dardel, C., Kergoat, L., Hiernaux, P., Mougin, E., Grippa, M., and Tucker, C.
J.: Re-greening Sahel: 30 years of remote sensing data and field observations
(Mali, Niger), Remote Sens. Environ., 140, 350–364,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2013.09.011, 2014.
De Keersmaecker, W., Lhermitte, S., Hill, M. J., Tits, L., Coppin, P., and
Somers, B.: Assessment of regional vegetation response to climate anomalies:
A case study for australia using GIMMS NDVI time series between 1982 and
2006, Remote Sens., 9, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9010034, 2017.
del Barrio, G., Puigdefabregas, J., Sanjuan, M. E., Stellmes, M., and Ruiz,
A.: Assessment and monitoring of land condition in the Iberian Peninsula,
1989–2000, Remote Sens. Environ., 114, 1817–1832,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2010.03.009, 2010.
FAO: Food and Agricultural Organization, Food and Agriculture data, available
from: http://www.fao.org, last access: 1 October 2018.
Fischer, E. M., Seneviratne, S. I., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., and
Schär, C.: Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions during the 2003 European
summer heat wave, J. Clim., 20, 5081–5099, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4288.1, 2007.
Gallardo, M. and Martínez-Vega, J.: Three decades of land-use changes in
the region of Madrid and how they relate to territorial planning, Eur. Plan.
Stud., 24, 1016–1033, https://doi.org/10.1080/09654313.2016.1139059, 2016.
García, M., Litago, J., Palacios-Orueta, A., Pinzón, J. E., and
Ustin Susan, L.: Short-term propagation of rainfall perturbations on
terrestrial ecosystems in central California, Appl. Veg. Sci., 13, 146–162,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1654-109X.2009.01057.x, 2010.
García-Haro, F. J., Campos-Taberner, M., Sabater, N., Belda, F., Moreno,
A., Gilabert, M. A., Martínez, B., Pérez-Hoyos, A., and Meliá,
J.: Vegetation vulnerability to drought in Spain, Vulnerabilidad de la
vegetación a la sequía en España, Rev. Teledetec., 42, 29–37,
https://doi.org/10.4995/raet.2014.2283, 2014.
Gazol, A., Camarero, J. J., Anderegg, W. R. L., and Vicente-Serrano, S. M.:
Impacts of droughts on the growth resilience of Northern Hemisphere forests,
Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr., 26, 166–176, https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12526, 2017.
Gazol, A., Camarero, J. J., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Sánchez-Salguero, R.,
Gutiérrez, E., de Luis, M., Sangüesa-Barreda, G., Novak, K., Rozas,
V., Tíscar, P. A., Linares, J. C., Martín-Hernández, N.,
Martínez del Castillo, E., Ribas, M., García-González, I.,
Silla, F., Camisón, A., Génova, M., Olano, J. M., Longares, L. A.,
Hevia, A., Tomás-Burguera, M., and Galván, J. D.: Forest resilience
to drought varies across biomes, Glob. Change Biol., 24, 2143–2158,
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14082, 2018.
Gessner, U., Naeimi, V., Klein, I., Kuenzer, C., Klein, D., and Dech, S.: The
relationship between precipitation anomalies and satellite-derived vegetation
activity in Central Asia, Glob. Planet. Change, 110, 74–87,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.09.007, 2013.
González-Alonso, F. and Casanova, J. L.: Application of NOAA-AVHRR images
for the validation and risk assessment of natural disasters in Spain, in
Remote Sensing '96, Balkema, Rotterdam, 227–233, 1997.
González-Hidalgo, J. C., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Peña-Angulo, D.,
Salinas, C., Tomas-Burguera, M., and Beguería, S.: High-resolution
spatio-temporal analyses of drought episodes in the western Mediterranean
basin (Spanish mainland, Iberian Peninsula), Acta Geophys., 66, 381–392,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-018-0138-x, 2018.
Gouveia, C. M., Bastos, A., Trigo, R. M., and Dacamara, C. C.: Drought
impacts on vegetation in the pre- and post-fire events over Iberian
Peninsula, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3123–3137,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3123-2012, 2012.
Gouveia, C. M., Páscoa, P., Russo, A., and Trigo, R. M.: Land degradation
trend assessment over iberia during 1982–2012, Evaluación de la
tendencia a la degradación del suelo en Iberia durante 1982–2012, Cuad.
Investig. Geogr., 42, 89–112, https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.2808, 2016.
Gouveia, C. M., Trigo, R. M., Beguería, S., and Vicente-Serrano, S. M.:
Drought impacts on vegetation activity in the Mediterranean region: An
assessment using remote sensing data and multi-scale drought indicators,
Glob. Planet. Change, 151, 15–27, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.06.011,
2017.
Grissino-Mayer, H. D. and Fritts, H. C.: The International Tree-Ring Data
Bank: An enhanced global database serving the global scientific community,
Holocene, 7, 235–238, https://doi.org/10.1177/095968369700700212, 1997.
Gu, Y., Brown, J. F., Verdin, J. P., and Wardlow, B.: A five-year analysis of
MODIS NDVI and NDWI for grassland drought assessment over the central Great
Plains of the United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06407,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL029127, 2007.
Herrmann, S. M., Anyamba, A., and Tucker, C. J.: Recent trends in vegetation
dynamics in the African Sahel and their relationship to climate, Glob.
Environ. Change, 15, 394–404, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.08.004, 2005.
Herrmann, S. M., Didan, K., Barreto-Munoz, A., and Crimmins, M. A.: Divergent
responses of vegetation cover in Southwestern US ecosystems to dry and wet
years at different elevations, Environ. Res. Lett., 11,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124005, 2016.
Hill, J., Stellmes, M., Udelhoven, T., Röder, A., and Sommer, S.:
Mediterranean desertification and land degradation, Mapping related land use
change syndromes based on satellite observations, Glob. Planet. Change, 64,
146–157, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.10.005, 2008.
Hirschi, M., Seneviratne, S. I., Alexandrov, V., Boberg, F., Boroneant, C.,
Christensen, O. B., Formayer, H., Orlowsky, B., and Stepanek, P.:
Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in
southeastern Europe, Nat. Geosci., 4, 17–21, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1032, 2011.
Huete, A., Didan, K., Miura, T., Rodriguez, E. P., Gao, X., and Ferreira, L.
G.: Overview of the radiometric and biophysical performance of the MODIS
vegetation indices, Remote Sens. Environ., 83, 195–213,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(02)00096-2, 2002.
Huxman, T. E., Smith, M. D., Fay, P. A., Knapp, A. K., Shaw, M. R., Lolk, M.
E., Smith, S. D., Tissue, D. T., Zak, J. C., Weltzin, J. F., Pockman, W. T.,
Sala, O. E., Haddad, B. M., Harte, J., Koch, G. W., Schwinning, S., Small, E.
E., and Williams, D. G.: Convergence across biomes to a common rain-use
efficiency, Nature, 429, 651–654, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02561, 2004.
Iglesias, E., Garrido, A., and Gómez-Ramos, A.: Evaluation of drought
management in irrigated areas, Agr. Econ., 29, 211–229,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-5150(03)00084-7, 2003.
Ivits, E., Horion, S., Fensholt, R., and Cherlet, M.: Drought footprint on
European ecosystems between 1999 and 2010 assessed by remotely sensed
vegetation phenology and productivity, Glob. Change Biol., 20, 581–593,
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12393, 2014.
Jenkins, J. C., Chojnacky, D. C., Heath, L. S., and Birdsey, R. A.:
National-scale biomass estimators for United States tree species, Forest
Sci., 49, 12–35, 2003.
Ji, L. and Peters, A. J.: Assessing vegetation response to drought in the
northern Great Plains using vegetation and drought indices, Remote Sens.
Environ., 87, 85–98, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(03)00174-3, 2003.
Julien, Y., Sobrino, J. A., Mattar, C., Ruescas, A. B.,
Jiménez-Muñoz, J. C., Sòria, G., Hidalgo, V., Atitar, M., Franch,
B., and Cuenca, J.: Temporal analysis of normalized difference vegetation
index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST) parameters to detect changes
in the Iberian land cover between 1981 and 2001, Int. J. Remote Sens., 32,
2057–2068, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161003762363, 2011.
Knipling, E. B.: Physical and physiological basis for the reflectance of
visible and near-infrared radiation from vegetation, Remote Sens. Environ.,
1, 155–159, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(70)80021-9, 1970.
Kogan, F. N.: Global Drought Watch from Space, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78,
621–636, 1997.
Lasanta, T. and Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: Complex land cover change processes
in semiarid Mediterranean regions: An approach using Landsat images in
northeast Spain, Remote Sens. Environ., 124, 1–14,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2012.04.023, 2012.
Lasanta, T., Arnáez, J., Pascual, N., Ruiz-Flaño, P., Errea, M. P.,
and Lana-Renault, N.: Space–time process and drivers of land abandonment in
Europe, Catena, 149, 810–823, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2016.02.024, 2017.
Lecina, S., Isidoro, D., Playán, E., and Aragüés, R.: Irrigation
modernization and water conservation in Spain: The case of Riegos del Alto
Aragón, Agr. Water Manage., 97, 1663–1675,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2010.05.023, 2010.
Liu, N., Harper, R. J., Dell, B., Liu, S., and Yu, Z.: Vegetation dynamics
and rainfall sensitivity for different vegetation types of the Australian
continent in the dry period 2002–2010, Ecohydrology, 10, e1811,
https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.1811, 2017.
Liu, W. T. and Kogan, F. N.: Monitoring regional drought using the vegetation
condition index, Int. J. Remote Sens., 17, 2761–2782,
https://doi.org/10.1080/01431169608949106, 1996.
Lloret, F., Lobo, A., Estevan, H., Maisongrande, P., Vayreda, J., and
Terradas, J.: Woody plant richness and NDVI response to drought events in
Catalonian (northeastern Spain) forests, Ecology, 88, 2270–2279,
https://doi.org/10.1890/06-1195.1, 2007.
Lobell, D. B., Hammer, G. L., Chenu, K., Zheng, B., Mclean, G., and Chapman,
S. C.: The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in
northeast Australia, Glob. Change Biol., 21, 4115–4127,
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13022, 2015.
López-Moreno, J. I., Beguería, S., and García-Ruiz, J. M.: The
management of a large Mediterranean reservoir: Storage regimens of the Yesa
Reservoir, Upper Aragon River basin, Central Spanish Pyrenees, Environ.
Manag., 34, 508–515, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-003-0249-1, 2004.
López-Moreno, J. I., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Zabalza, J., Beguería,
S., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Azorin-Molina, C., and Morán-Tejeda, E.:
Hydrological response to climate variability at different time scales: A
study in the Ebro basin, J. Hydrol., 477, 175–188,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.028, 2013.
Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., López-Moreno, J. I.,
Beguería, S., García-Ruiz, J. M., and Cuadrat, J. M.: The impact of
droughts and water management on various hydrological systems in the
headwaters of the Tagus River (central Spain), J. Hydrol., 386,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.01.001, 2010.
Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Morán-Tejeda, E., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., and
López-Moreno, J. I.: Streamflow droughts in the Iberian Peninsula between
1945 and 2005: spatial and temporal patterns, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17,
119–134, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-119-2013, 2013.
Lotsch, A., Friedl, M. A., Anderson, B. T., and Tucker, C. J.: Coupled
vegetation-precipitation variability observed from satellite and climate
records, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1774, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017506, 2003.
Ma, X., Huete, A., Moran, S., Ponce-Campos, G., and Eamus, D.: Abrupt shifts
in phenology and vegetation productivity under climate extremes, J. Geophys.
Res.-Biogeo., 120, 2036–2052, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003144, 2015.
Malo, A. R. and Nicholson, S. E.: A study of rainfall and vegetation dynamics
in the African Sahel using normalized difference vegetation index, J. Arid
Environ., 19, 1–24, 1990.
Martínez-Fernández, J. and Ceballos, A.: Temporal Stability of Soil
Moisture in a Large-Field Experiment in Spain, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 67,
1647–1656, 2003.
McDowell, N., Pockman, W. T., Allen, C. D., Breshears, D. D., Cobb, N., Kolb,
T., Plaut, J., Sperry, J., West, A., Williams, D. G., and Yepez, E. A.:
Mechanisms of plant survival and mortality during drought: Why do some plants
survive while others succumb to drought?, New Phytol., 178, 719–739,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2008.02436.x, 2008.
McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., and Kleist, J.: The relationship of drought
frequency and duration to time scales, Eighth Conf. Appl. Climatol., Am.
Meteorol. Soc., 179–184, 1993.
Milich, L. and Weiss, E.: Characterization of the sahel: Implications of
correctly calculating interannual coefficients of variation (CoVs) from GAC
NDVI values, Int. J. Remote Sens., 18, 3749–3759,
https://doi.org/10.1080/014311697216603, 1997.
Molina, A. J. and del Campo, A. D.: The effects of experimental thinning on
throughfall and stemflow: A contribution towards hydrology-oriented
silviculture in Aleppo pine plantations, Forest Ecol. Manag., 269, 206–213,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2011.12.037, 2012.
Mu, Q., Zhao, M., Kimball, J. S., McDowell, N. G., and Running, S. W.: A
remotely sensed global terrestrial drought severity index, B. Am. Meteorol.
Soc., 94, 83–98, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00213.1, 2013.
Mühlbauer, S., Costa, A. C., and Caetano, M.: A spatiotemporal analysis
of droughts and the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation in the Iberian
Peninsula based on MODIS imagery, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 124, 703–721,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1451-9, 2016.
Mukherjee, S., Mishra, A., and Trenberth, K. E.: Climate Change and Drought:
a Perspective on Drought Indices, Curr. Clim. Change Reports, 4, 145–163,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0098-x, 2018.
Myneni, R. B., Hall, F. G., Sellers, P. J., and Marshak, A. L.:
Interpretation of spectral vegetation indexes, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 33, 481–486, https://doi.org/10.1109/36.377948, 1995.
Newberry, T. L.: Effect of climatic variability on δ13C and
tree-ring growth in piñon pine (Pinus edulis), Trees-Struct. Funct., 24,
551–559, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00468-010-0426-9, 2010.
Nicholson, S. E., Davenport, M. L., and Malo, A. R.: A comparison of the
vegetation response to rainfall in the Sahel and East Africa, using
normalized difference vegetation index from NOAA AVHRR, Climate Change, 17,
209–241, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138369, 1990.
Okin, G. S., Dong, C., Willis, K. S., Gillespie, T. W., and MacDonald, G. M.:
The Impact of Drought on Native Southern California Vegetation: Remote
Sensing Analysis Using MODIS-Derived Time Series, J. Geophys. Res.-Biogeo.,
123, 1927–1939, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JG004485, 2018.
Olsen, J. L., Ceccato, P., Proud, S. R., Fensholt, R., Grippa, M., Mougin,
B., Ardö, J., and Sandholt, I.: Relation between seasonally detrended
shortwave infrared reflectance data and land surface moisture in semi-arid
Sahel, Remote Sens., 5, 2898–2927, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs5062898, 2013.
Ortigosa, L. M., Garcia-Ruiz, J. M., and Gil-Pelegrin, E.: Land reclamation
by reforestation in the Central Pyrenees, Mt. Res.-Dev., 10, 281–288,
https://doi.org/10.2307/3673607, 1990.
Palazón, A., Aragonés, L., and López, I.: Evaluation of coastal
management: Study case in the province of Alicante, Spain, Sci. Total
Environ., 572, 1184–1194, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.08.032, 2016.
Páscoa, P., Gouveia, C. M., Russo, A., and Trigo, R. M.: The role of
drought on wheat yield interannual variability in the Iberian Peninsula from
1929 to 2012, Int. J. Biometeorol., 61, 439–451,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-016-1224-x, 2017.
Pasho, E., Camarero, J. J., de Luis, M., and Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: Impacts
of drought at different time scales on forest growth across a wide climatic
gradient in north-eastern Spain, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 151, 1800–1811,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.07.018, 2011.
Pausas, J. G.: Changes in fire and climate in the eastern Iberian Peninsula
(Mediterranean Basin), Climate Change, 63, 337–350,
https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000018508.94901.9c, 2004.
Pausas, J. G. and Fernández-Muñoz, S.: Fire regime changes in the
Western Mediterranean Basin: From fuel-limited to drought-driven fire regime,
Climate Change, 110, 215–226, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0060-6, 2012.
Peco, B., Ortega, M., and Levassor, C.: Similarity between seed bank and
vegetation in Mediterranean grassland: A predictive model, J. Veg. Sci., 9,
815–828, https://doi.org/10.2307/3237047, 1998.
Peña-Gallardo, M., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Camarero, J. J., Gazol, A.,
Sánchez-Salguero, R., Domínguez-Castro, F., El Kenawy, A.,
Beguería-Portugés, S., Gutiérrez, E., de Luis, M.,
Sangüesa-Barreda, G., Novak, K., Rozas, V., Tíscar, P. A., Linares,
J. C., del Castillo, E., Ribas Matamoros, M., García-González, I.,
Silla, F., Camisón, Á., Génova, M., Olano, J. M., Longares, L.
A., Hevia, A., and Galván, J. D.: Drought Sensitiveness on Forest Growth
in Peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands, Forests, 9, 2018a.
Peña-Gallardo, M., SM, V.-S., Domínguez-Castro, F., Quiring, S.,
Svoboda, M., Beguería, S., and Hannaford, J.: Effectiveness of drought
indices in identifying impacts on major crops across the USA , Clim. Res.,
75, 221–240, 2018b.
Pinzon, J. E. and Tucker, C. J.: A non-stationary 1981–2012 AVHRR
NDVI < inf > 3g < /inf > time
series, Remote Sens., 6, 6929–6960, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs6086929, 2014.
Quiring, S. M. and Ganesh, S.: Evaluating the utility of the Vegetation
Condition Index (VCI) for monitoring meteorological drought in Texas, Agr.
Forest Meteorol., 150, 330–339, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2009.11.015, 2010.
Quiroga, S. and Iglesias, A.: A comparison of the climate risks of cereal,
citrus, grapevine and olive production in Spain, Agr. Syst., 101, 91–100,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2009.03.006, 2009.
Reichstein, M., Ciais, P., Papale, D., Valentini, R., Running, S., Viovy, N.,
Cramer, W., Granier, A., Ogée, J., Allard, V., Aubinet, M., Bernhofer,
C., Buchmann, N., Carrara, A., Grünwald, T., Heimann, M., Heinesch, B.,
Knohl, A., Kutsch, W., Loustau, D., Manca, G., Matteucci, G., Miglietta, F.,
Ourcival, J. M., Pilegaard, K., Pumpanen, J., Rambal, S., Schaphoff, S.,
Seufert, G., Soussana, J.-F., Sanz, M.-J., Vesala, T., and Zhao, M.:
Reduction of ecosystem productivity and respiration during the European
summer 2003 climate anomaly: A joint flux tower, remote sensing and modelling
analysis, Glob. Change Biol., 13, 634–651,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01224.x, 2007.
Restaino, C. M., Peterson, D. L., and Littell, J.: Increased water deficit
decreases Douglas fir growth throughout western US forests, P. Natl. Acad.
Sci. USA, 113, 9557–9562, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1602384113, 2016.
Rhee, J., Im, J., and Carbone, G. J.: Monitoring agricultural drought for
arid and humid regions using multi-sensor remote sensing data, Remote Sens.
Environ., 114, 2875–2887, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2010.07.005, 2010.
Russi, L., Cocks, P. S., and Roberts, E. H.: Seed bank dynamics in a
Mediterranean grassland, J. Appl. Ecol., 29, 763–771, https://doi.org/10.2307/2404486,
1992.
Scaini, A., Sánchez, N., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., and
Martínez-Fernández, J.: SMOS-derived soil moisture anomalies and
drought indices: A comparative analysis using in situ measurements, Hydrol.
Process., 29, 373–383, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10150, 2015.
Schultz, P. A. and Halpert, M. S.: Global analysis of the relationships among
a vegetation index, precipitation and land surface temperature, Int. J.
Remote Sens., 16, 2755–2777, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431169508954590, 1995.
Serra, P., Pons, X., and Saurí, D.: Land-cover and land-use change in a
Mediterranean landscape: A spatial analysis of driving forces integrating
biophysical and human factors, Appl. Geogr., 28, 189–209,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2008.02.001, 2008.
Slayback, D. A., Pinzon, J. E., Los, S. O., and Tucker, C. J.: Northern
hemisphere photosynthetic trends 1982–99, Glob. Change Biol., 9, 1–15,
https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00507.x, 2003.
Sona, N. T., Chen, C. F., Chen, C. R., Chang, L. Y., and Minh, V. Q.:
Monitoring agricultural drought in the lower mekong basin using MODIS NDVI
and land surface temperature data, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf., 18,
417–427, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2012.03.014, 2012.
Stagge, J. H., Kohn, I., Tallaksen, L. M., and Stahl, K.: Modeling drought
impact occurrence based on meteorological drought indices in Europe, J.
Hydrol., 530, 37–50, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.09.039, 2015.
Stellmes, M., Röder, A., Udelhoven, T., and Hill, J.: Mapping syndromes
of land change in Spain with remote sensing time series, demographic and
climatic data, Land Use Policy, 30, 685–702,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.05.007, 2013.
Tucker, C. J.: Red and photographic infrared linear combinations for
monitoring vegetation, Remote Sens. Environ., 8, 127–150,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0034-4257(79)90013-0, 1979.
Tucker, C. J., Pinzon, J. E., Brown, M. E., Slayback, D. A., Pak, E. W.,
Mahoney, R., Vermote, E. F., and El Saleous, N.: An extended AVHRR 8-km NDVI
dataset compatible with MODIS and SPOT vegetation NDVI data, Int. J. Remote
Sens., 26, 4485–4498, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160500168686, 2005.
Udelhoven, T., Stellmes, M., del Barrio, G., and Hill, J.: Assessment of
rainfall and NDVI anomalies in Spain (1989–1999) using distributed lag
models, Int. J. Remote Sens., 30, 1961–1976, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160802546829,
2009.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: Spatial and temporal analysis of droughts in the
Iberian Peninsula (1910–2000), Hydrol. Sci. J., 51, 83–97,
https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.51.1.83, 2006.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: Evaluating the impact of drought using remote sensing
in a Mediterranean, Semi-arid Region, Nat. Hazards, 40, 173–208,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-006-0009-7, 2007.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M. and Beguería, S.: Comment on “Candidate
distributions for climatological drought indices (SPI and SPEI)” by James H.
Stagge et al., Int. J. Climatol., 36, 2120–2131, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4474,
2016.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Cuadrat-Prats, J. M., and Romo, A.: Aridity influence
on vegetation patterns in the middle Ebro Valley (Spain): Evaluation by means
of AVHRR images and climate interpolation techniques, J. Arid Environ., 66,
353–375, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2005.10.021, 2006.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., and López-Moreno, J. I.: A
multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The standardized
precipitation evapotranspiration index, J. Clim., 23, 1696–1718,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1, 2010.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., and López-Moreno, J. I.:
Comment on Characteristics and trends in various forms of the Palmer Drought
Severity Index (PDSI) during 1900–2008 by Aiguo Dai, J. Geophys.
Res.-Atmos., 116, D19112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015541 2011.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Beguería, S., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Camarero, J.
J., López-Moreno, J. I., Azorin-Molina, C., Revuelto, J.,
Morán-Tejeda, E., and Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.: Performance of drought indices
for ecological, agricultural, and hydrological applications, Earth Interact.,
16, https://doi.org/10.1175/2012EI000434.1, 2012.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Gouveia, C., Camarero, J. J., Beguería, S.,
Trigo, R., López-Moreno, J. I., Azorín-Molina, C., Pasho, E.,
Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Revuelto, J., Morán-Tejeda, E., and Sanchez-Lorenzo,
A.: Response of vegetation to drought time-scales across global land biomes,
P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 52–57, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1207068110, 2013.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Camarero, J. J., and Azorin-Molina, C.: Diverse
responses of forest growth to drought time-scales in the Northern Hemisphere,
Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr., 23, 1019–1030, https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12183, 2014a.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Lopez-Moreno, J.-I., Beguería, S.,
Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., García-Ruiz, J. M.,
Azorin-Molina, C., Morán-Tejeda, E., Revuelto, J., Trigo, R., Coelho, F.,
and Espejo, F.: Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature
rise in southern Europe, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 044001,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044001, 2014b.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Azorin-Molina, C., Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., Revuelto, J.,
López-Moreno, J. I., González-Hidalgo, J. C., Moran-Tejeda, E., and
Espejo, F.: Reference evapotranspiration variability and trends in Spain,
1961–2011, Glob. Planet. Change, 121, 26–40,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.06.005, 2014c.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Azorin-Molina, C., Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., Revuelto, J.,
Morán-Tejeda, E., Lõpez-Moreno, J. I., and Espejo, F.: Sensitivity of
reference evapotranspiration to changes in meteorological parameters in Spain
(1961–2011), Water Resour. Res., 50, 8458–8480, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015427,
2014d.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Cabello, D., Tomás-Burguera, M.,
Martín-Hernández, N., Beguería, S., Azorin-Molina, C., and
Kenawy, A. E.: Drought variability and land degradation in semiarid regions:
Assessment using remote sensing data and drought indices (1982–2011), Remote
Sens., 7, 4391–4423, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs70404391, 2015.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Tomas-Burguera, M., Beguería, S., Reig, F.,
Latorre, B., Peña-Gallardo, M., Luna, M. Y., Morata, A., and
González-Hidalgo, J. C.: A High Resolution Dataset of Drought Indices for
Spain, Data, 2, https://doi.org/10.3390/data2030022, 2017.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Martín-Hernández, N., Reig, F.,
Azorin-Molina, C., Zabalza, J., Beguería, S., Domínguez-Castro, F.,
El Kenawy, A., Peña-Gallardo, M., Noguera, I., and García, M.:
Vegetation greening in Spain detected from long term data (1981–2015),
Int. J. Remote Sens., in review, 2018.
Wan, Z., Wang, P., and Li, X.: Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature and
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index products for monitoring drought in the
southern Great Plains, USA, Int. J. Remote Sens., 25, 61–72,
https://doi.org/10.1080/0143116031000115328, 2004.
Wang, J., Rich, P. M., and Price, K. P.: Temporal responses of NDVI to
precipitation and temperature in the central Great Plains, USA, Int. J.
Remote Sens., 24, 2345–2364, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160210154812, 2003.
Xulu, S., Peerbhay, K., Gebreslasie, M., and Ismail, R.: Drought influence on
forest plantations in Zululand, South Africa, using MODIS time series and
climate data, Forests, 9, https://doi.org/10.3390/f9090528, 2018.
Yang, S., Meng, D., Li, X., and Wu, X.: Multi-scale responses of vegetation
changes relative to the SPEI meteorological drought index in North China in
2001–2014, Shengtai Xuebao, Acta Ecol. Sin., 38, 1028–1039,
https://doi.org/10.5846/stxb201611242398, 2018.
Zhang, L., Xiao, J., Zhou, Y., Zheng, Y., Li, J., and Xiao, H.: Drought
events and their effects on vegetation productivity in China, Ecosphere, 7,
e01591, https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1591, 2016.
Zhang, Q., Kong, D., Singh, V. P., and Shi, P.: Response of vegetation to
different time-scales drought across China: Spatiotemporal patterns, causes
and implications, Glob. Planet. Change, 152, 1–11,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.02.008, 2017.
Zhao, M. and Running, S. W.: Drought-induced reduction in global terrestrial
net primary production from 2000 through 2009, Science, 329, 940–943,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1192666, 2010.
Zhao, M., Geruo, A., Velicogna, I., and Kimball, J. S.: Satellite
observations of regional drought severity in the continental United States
using GRACE-based terrestrial water storage changes, J. Clim., 30,
6297–6308, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0458.1, 2017.
Zhao, X., Wei, H., Liang, S., Zhou, T., He, B., Tang, B., and Wu, D.:
Responses of natural vegetation to different stages of extreme drought during
2009–2010 in Southwestern China, Remote Sens., 7, 14039–14054,
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs71014039, 2015.
Short summary
Drought is a major driver of vegetation activity in Spain. Here we used a high-resolution remote-sensing dataset spanning the period from 1981 to 2015 to assess the sensitivity of 23 vegetation types to drought across Spain. Results demonstrate that vegetation activity is controlled largely by the interannual variability of drought. Nevertheless, there are some considerable spatio-temporal variations, which can be linked to differences in land cover and aridity conditions.
Drought is a major driver of vegetation activity in Spain. Here we used a high-resolution...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint