Articles | Volume 18, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
24 Oct 2018
Review article |
| 24 Oct 2018
| 24 Oct 2018
Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: What should constitute good practice?
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Willy P. Aspinall
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Paul D. Bates
School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Edoardo Borgomeo
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Katsuichiro Goda
Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Jim W. Hall
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Trevor Page
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Jeremy C. Phillips
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Michael Simpson
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Paul J. Smith
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, UK
Thorsten Wagener
Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Matt Watson
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
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36 citations as recorded by crossref.
- An epistemically uncertain walk through the rather fuzzy subject of observation and model uncertainties1 K. Beven 10.1002/hyp.14012
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- Identifying the interfaces between perceived multi-hazards and socio-ecological risks to strengthen local adaptations M. Rakib et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119708
- Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 1: A review of different natural hazard areas K. Beven et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-2741-2018
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- Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models J. Gómez Zapata et al. 10.1007/s10518-021-01312-9
- A user-centred design framework for disaster risk visualisation A. Twomlow et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103067
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- Independence of Future Changes of River Runoff in Europe from the Pathway to Global Warming L. Mentaschi et al. 10.3390/cli8020022
- Virtual testbeds for community resilience analysis: step-by-step development procedure and future orientation S. Enderami et al. 10.1016/j.rcns.2023.07.002
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- Enhancing Risk Management in Road Infrastructure Facing Flash Floods through Epistemological Approaches V. Ariza Flores et al. 10.3390/buildings14071931
- Invited perspectives: safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments B. Merz et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024
- Towards a Sensitivity Analysis in Seismic Risk with Probabilistic Building Exposure Models: An Application in Valparaíso, Chile Using Ancillary Open-Source Data and Parametric Ground Motions J. Gómez Zapata et al. 10.3390/ijgi11020113
- Decision analysis for prioritizing climate change adaptation options: a systematic review E. Amanuma et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad61fe
- Reconstructing eruptions at a data limited volcano: A case study at Gede (West Java) E. Tennant et al. 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2021.107325
- Uncertainties and sensitivities in the quantification of future tropical cyclone risk S. Meiler et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00998-w
- A methodology to conduct wind damage field surveys for high-impact weather events of convective origin O. Rodríguez et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-1513-2020
- Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for probabilistic weather and climate-risk modelling: an implementation in CLIMADA v.3.1.0 C. Kropf et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-7177-2022
- Technical note: The CREDIBLE Uncertainty Estimation (CURE) toolbox: facilitating the communication of epistemic uncertainty T. Page et al. 10.5194/hess-27-2523-2023
- Uncertainty quantification of flood mitigation predictions and implications for interventions K. Berends et al. 10.5194/nhess-19-1737-2019
- The International Mountain Conference, Innsbruck, Austria, September 2019 (IMC2019): A Synthesis with Recommendations for Research M. Price et al. 10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-21-00027.1
- A novel multiple-expert protocol to manage uncertainty and subjective choices in probabilistic single and multi-hazard risk analyses J. Selva et al. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104641
- Marine geohazards exposed: Uncertainties involved I. Cardenas et al. 10.1080/1064119X.2022.2078252
- Temporal evolution of flow-like landslide hazard for a road infrastructure in the municipality of Nocera Inferiore (southern Italy) under the effect of climate change M. Uzielli et al. 10.5194/nhess-18-3019-2018
- Climate Change Signal in Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Today and Near Future C. Lee et al. 10.1029/2023EF003539
- Anticipating cascading effects of extreme precipitation with pathway schemes - Three case studies from Europe S. Schauwecker et al. 10.1016/j.envint.2019.02.072
- On (in)validating environmental models. 1. Principles for formulating a Turing‐like Test for determining when a model is fit‐for purpose K. Beven & S. Lane 10.1002/hyp.14704
- Community Perception and Communication of Volcanic Risk from the Cotopaxi Volcano in Latacunga, Ecuador J. Gomez-Zapata et al. 10.3390/su13041714
- Invited perspectives: An insurer's perspective on the knowns and unknowns in natural hazard risk modelling M. Déroche 10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023
- Climate Risk Management K. Keller et al. 10.1146/annurev-earth-080320-055847
- Uncertainty and Climate Change Adaptation: a Systematic Review of Research Approaches and People’s Decision-Making M. Moure et al. 10.1007/s40641-023-00189-x
- Implementation of Standardized Uncertainty Analysis for Streamflow Measurements Acquired with Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters M. Muste et al. 10.1061/JHEND8.HYENG-13850
2 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 10 Dec 2024
Short summary
Part 1 of this paper discussed the uncertainties arising from gaps in knowledge or limited understanding of the processes involved in different natural hazard areas. These are the epistemic uncertainties that can be difficult to constrain, especially in terms of event or scenario probabilities. A conceptual framework for good practice in dealing with epistemic uncertainties is outlined and implications of applying the principles to natural hazard science are discussed.
Part 1 of this paper discussed the uncertainties arising from gaps in knowledge or limited...
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