Articles | Volume 18, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
24 Oct 2018
Review article |
| 24 Oct 2018
| 24 Oct 2018
Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: What should constitute good practice?
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Willy P. Aspinall
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Paul D. Bates
School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Edoardo Borgomeo
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Katsuichiro Goda
Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Jim W. Hall
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Trevor Page
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
Jeremy C. Phillips
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Michael Simpson
Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Paul J. Smith
Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, UK
Thorsten Wagener
Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Matt Watson
School of Earth Sciences, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
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- Uncertainties and sensitivities in the quantification of future tropical cyclone risk S. Meiler et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00998-w
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- Climate Change Signal in Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Today and Near Future C. Lee et al. 10.1029/2023EF003539
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- On (in)validating environmental models. 1. Principles for formulating a Turing‐like Test for determining when a model is fit‐for purpose K. Beven & S. Lane 10.1002/hyp.14704
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- Invited perspectives: An insurer's perspective on the knowns and unknowns in natural hazard risk modelling M. Déroche 10.5194/nhess-23-251-2023
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- Uncertainty and Climate Change Adaptation: a Systematic Review of Research Approaches and People’s Decision-Making M. Moure et al. 10.1007/s40641-023-00189-x
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Latest update: 25 Apr 2024
Short summary
Part 1 of this paper discussed the uncertainties arising from gaps in knowledge or limited understanding of the processes involved in different natural hazard areas. These are the epistemic uncertainties that can be difficult to constrain, especially in terms of event or scenario probabilities. A conceptual framework for good practice in dealing with epistemic uncertainties is outlined and implications of applying the principles to natural hazard science are discussed.
Part 1 of this paper discussed the uncertainties arising from gaps in knowledge or limited...
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