Articles | Volume 18, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1261-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1261-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Apr 2018
Research article |
| 27 Apr 2018
| 27 Apr 2018
Characterizing severe weather potential in synoptically weakly forced thunderstorm environments
Paul W. Miller
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
Thomas L. Mote
Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
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Cited
23 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Convective environments leading to microburst, macroburst and downburst events across the United States D. Romanic et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100474
- An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Seasonal Precipitation and Thermodynamic Environment in Puerto Rico P. Miller et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0127.1
- Strong Summer Atmospheric Rivers Trigger Greenland Ice Sheet Melt through Spatially Varying Surface Energy Balance and Cloud Regimes K. Mattingly et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0835.1
- Climatological variability of a thunderstorm environment dataset in tropical and temperate regions A. Dowdy et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08076-5
- A Moving Path Tracking Method of the Thunderstorm Cloud Based on the Three‐Dimensional Atmospheric Electric Field Apparatus X. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/8856033
- Using KDP Cores as a Downburst Precursor Signature C. Kuster et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0005.1
- Predicting the Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Season With 500‐hPa Temperature P. Miller & J. Trepanier https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094741
- Atmospheric Storm Anomalies Prior to Major Earthquakes in the Japan Region F. Freund et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141610241
- Weakly Forced Thunderstorms in the Southeast US Are Stronger Near Urban Areas P. Miller & N. Debbage https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105081
- A New Workflow of Drilling Anomaly Detection Based on Prior Knowledge and Unsupervised Learning Z. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.2118/228414-PA
- The algorithmic detection of pulse thunderstorms within a large, mostly non‐severe sample P. Miller & T. Mote https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1728
- Factors affecting severe weather threat index in urban areas of Turkey and Iran G. Rabbani et al. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40068-020-00173-6
- Linking the storm cells position and high values of instability indices – a case study in the southeast of Western Siberia O. Nechepurenko et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1604/1/012006
- Broadscale thunderstorm environment dataset intended for climate analysis A. Dowdy & A. Brown https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2025.1539873
- Lightning Disaster Risk Zoning in Jiangsu Province of China Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Entropy Weight Method C. Jin et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.943000
- A methodology to conduct wind damage field surveys for high-impact weather events of convective origin O. Rodríguez et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1513-2020
- Environmental Analysis of Warm-Season First Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Events over the Western Florida Peninsula I. Chavez et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0005.1
- Extreme wind speed estimation in thunderstorm gales utilizing dual-polarization weather radar hydrometeor classification products Y. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108202
- Severe Convective Wind Environments and Future Projected Changes in Australia A. Brown & A. Dowdy https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034633
- Statistical relevance of meteorological ambient conditions and cell attributes for nowcasting the life cycle of convective storms J. Wilhelm et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4505
- Aerosol transport and associated boundary layer thermodynamics under contrasting synoptic conditions over a semiarid site S. Pal et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178357
- Severe convection-related winds in Australia and their associated environments A. Brown & A. Dowdy https://doi.org/10.1071/ES19052
- Kinematic and thermodynamic conditions related to convective systems with a bow echo in Poland D. Celiński-Mysław et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2728-6
23 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Convective environments leading to microburst, macroburst and downburst events across the United States D. Romanic et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100474
- An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Seasonal Precipitation and Thermodynamic Environment in Puerto Rico P. Miller et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0127.1
- Strong Summer Atmospheric Rivers Trigger Greenland Ice Sheet Melt through Spatially Varying Surface Energy Balance and Cloud Regimes K. Mattingly et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0835.1
- Climatological variability of a thunderstorm environment dataset in tropical and temperate regions A. Dowdy et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08076-5
- A Moving Path Tracking Method of the Thunderstorm Cloud Based on the Three‐Dimensional Atmospheric Electric Field Apparatus X. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/8856033
- Using KDP Cores as a Downburst Precursor Signature C. Kuster et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0005.1
- Predicting the Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Season With 500‐hPa Temperature P. Miller & J. Trepanier https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094741
- Atmospheric Storm Anomalies Prior to Major Earthquakes in the Japan Region F. Freund et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141610241
- Weakly Forced Thunderstorms in the Southeast US Are Stronger Near Urban Areas P. Miller & N. Debbage https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105081
- A New Workflow of Drilling Anomaly Detection Based on Prior Knowledge and Unsupervised Learning Z. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.2118/228414-PA
- The algorithmic detection of pulse thunderstorms within a large, mostly non‐severe sample P. Miller & T. Mote https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1728
- Factors affecting severe weather threat index in urban areas of Turkey and Iran G. Rabbani et al. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40068-020-00173-6
- Linking the storm cells position and high values of instability indices – a case study in the southeast of Western Siberia O. Nechepurenko et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1604/1/012006
- Broadscale thunderstorm environment dataset intended for climate analysis A. Dowdy & A. Brown https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2025.1539873
- Lightning Disaster Risk Zoning in Jiangsu Province of China Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Entropy Weight Method C. Jin et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.943000
- A methodology to conduct wind damage field surveys for high-impact weather events of convective origin O. Rodríguez et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1513-2020
- Environmental Analysis of Warm-Season First Cloud-To-Ground Lightning Events over the Western Florida Peninsula I. Chavez et al. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-22-0005.1
- Extreme wind speed estimation in thunderstorm gales utilizing dual-polarization weather radar hydrometeor classification products Y. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108202
- Severe Convective Wind Environments and Future Projected Changes in Australia A. Brown & A. Dowdy https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034633
- Statistical relevance of meteorological ambient conditions and cell attributes for nowcasting the life cycle of convective storms J. Wilhelm et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4505
- Aerosol transport and associated boundary layer thermodynamics under contrasting synoptic conditions over a semiarid site S. Pal et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178357
- Severe convection-related winds in Australia and their associated environments A. Brown & A. Dowdy https://doi.org/10.1071/ES19052
- Kinematic and thermodynamic conditions related to convective systems with a bow echo in Poland D. Celiński-Mysław et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2728-6
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 23 Jun 2026
Short summary
The likelihood of severe weather events in synoptically weakly forced thunderstorm (WFT) environments is best characterized by lapse-rate-based parameters. These measures, also among the most accurate model-derived variables, are posited to best capture the subtle convective environmental differences that favor WFT severity. Forecasters should consider weighting their WFT forecasts in favor of lapse-rate-based parameters over others that may be more sensitive to model biases.
The likelihood of severe weather events in synoptically weakly forced thunderstorm (WFT)...
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