Articles | Volume 18, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1261-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1261-2018
Research article
 | 
27 Apr 2018
Research article |  | 27 Apr 2018

Characterizing severe weather potential in synoptically weakly forced thunderstorm environments

Paul W. Miller and Thomas L. Mote

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Short summary
The likelihood of severe weather events in synoptically weakly forced thunderstorm (WFT) environments is best characterized by lapse-rate-based parameters. These measures, also among the most accurate model-derived variables, are posited to best capture the subtle convective environmental differences that favor WFT severity. Forecasters should consider weighting their WFT forecasts in favor of lapse-rate-based parameters over others that may be more sensitive to model biases.
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