Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 17, issue 10
Articles | Volume 17, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 10
Research article
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19 Oct 2017
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 19 Oct 2017

Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts

Florian Pantillon, Peter Knippertz, and Ulrich Corsmeier

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Short summary
The predictability of 25 historical winter storms over Europe is revisited by taking advantage of a homogeneous dataset of retrospective forecasts for the 1995–2015 period. The forecasts well predict the storms up to 2–4 days ahead only but also show clear potential for the early warning of storms up to 10 days ahead. However, the predictability of individual storms exhibits large variability and physical characteristics are identified for outliers with a poor predictability.
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