Verification of pre-monsoon temperature forecasts over India during 2016 with a focus on heatwave prediction

Singh, Harvir; Arora, Kopal; Ashrit, Raghavendra; Rajagopal, Ekkattil N.

doi:10.5194/nhess-17-1469-2017

Articles | Volume 17, issue 9

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1469-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1469-2017

© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 9

Research article

|

06 Sep 2017

Research article |

| 06 Sep 2017

Verification of pre-monsoon temperature forecasts over India during 2016 with a focus on heatwave prediction

Harvir Singh, Kopal Arora, Raghavendra Ashrit, and Ekkattil N. Rajagopal

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Total article views: 2,648 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

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Views and downloads (calculated since 04 Oct 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Oct 2016	68	13	2	83
Nov 2016	15	5	1	21
Dec 2016	26	5	0	31
Jan 2017	6	2	0	8
Feb 2017	8	2	0	10
Mar 2017	20	3	3	26
Apr 2017	18	2	1	21
May 2017	16	6	1	23
Jun 2017	12	3	4	19
Jul 2017	6	6	1	13
Aug 2017	3	4	0	7
Sep 2017	127	32	3	162
Oct 2017	47	20	3	70
Nov 2017	21	15	2	38
Dec 2017	11	10	2	23
Jan 2018	10	12	1	23
Feb 2018	5	4	0	9
Mar 2018	13	8	2	23
Apr 2018	7	6	0	13
May 2018	8	7	1	16
Jun 2018	9	16	2	27
Jul 2018	14	12	1	27
Aug 2018	28	60	3	91
Sep 2018	10	8	1	19
Oct 2018	15	9	2	26
Nov 2018	6	7	3	16
Dec 2018	13	18	1	32
Jan 2019	6	5	1	12
Feb 2019	5	7	0	12
Mar 2019	5	12	5	22
Apr 2019	6	3	0	9
May 2019	4	7	0	11
Jun 2019	10	12	2	24
Jul 2019	13	5	0	18
Aug 2019	9	8	0	17
Sep 2019	4	7	3	14
Oct 2019	11	11	1	23
Nov 2019	4	0	4
Dec 2019	2	5	2	9
Jan 2020	11	13	2	26
Feb 2020	5	3	0	8
Mar 2020	2	5	0	7
Apr 2020	2	3	0	5
May 2020	6	7	0	13
Jun 2020	15	10	2	27
Jul 2020	24	28	11	63
Aug 2020	6	12	4	22
Sep 2020	12	6	0	18
Oct 2020	8	9	1	18
Nov 2020	6	7	2	15
Dec 2020	6	4	0	10
Jan 2021	11	8	0	19
Feb 2021	8	3	0	11
Mar 2021	8	6	0	14
Apr 2021	7	4	1	12
May 2021	4	9	1	14
Jun 2021	5	4	0	9
Jul 2021	4	11	1	16
Aug 2021	4	6	2	12
Sep 2021	18	6	1	25
Oct 2021	7	28	1	36
Nov 2021	2	26	0	28
Dec 2021	8	10	1	19
Jan 2022	8	9	0	17
Feb 2022	9	6	2	17
Mar 2022	5	6	0	11
Apr 2022	6	6	1	13
May 2022	8	7	4	19
Jun 2022	5	6	2	13
Jul 2022	5	3	1	9
Aug 2022	12	10	1	23
Sep 2022	6	3	0	9
Oct 2022	6	5	1	12
Nov 2022	16	8	0	24
Dec 2022	15	5	1	21
Jan 2023	9	10	1	20
Feb 2023	10	4	1	15
Mar 2023	15	5	1	21
Apr 2023	21	6	0	27
May 2023	21	8	3	32
Jun 2023	5	3	0	8
Jul 2023	5	8	0	13
Aug 2023	7	10	2	19
Sep 2023	6	15	0	21
Oct 2023	8	4	0	12
Nov 2023	3	1	0	4
Dec 2023	19	3	0	22
Jan 2024	13	8	2	23
Feb 2024	9	6	3	18
Mar 2024	4	11	1	16
Apr 2024	21	6	3	30
May 2024	19	9	5	33
Jun 2024	21	3	2	26
Jul 2024	16	7	2	25
Aug 2024	16	9	6	31
Sep 2024	12	10	3	25
Oct 2024	15	5	2	22
Nov 2024	7	4	0	11
Dec 2024	13	6	4	23
Jan 2025	18	7	0	25
Feb 2025	28	15	0	43
Mar 2025	16	7	1	24
Apr 2025	20	11	0	31
May 2025	16	8	1	25
Jun 2025	38	28	1	67
Jul 2025	27	14	2	43
Aug 2025	7	8	2	17
Sep 2025	18	20	1	39
Oct 2025	22	23	1	46
Nov 2025	28	29	4	61
Dec 2025	21	19	3	43

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 04 Oct 2016)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Oct 2016	68	13	2	83
Nov 2016	15	5	1	21
Dec 2016	26	5	0	31
Jan 2017	6	2	0	8
Feb 2017	8	2	0	10
Mar 2017	20	3	3	26
Apr 2017	18	2	1	21
May 2017	16	6	1	23
Jun 2017	12	3	4	19
Jul 2017	6	6	1	13
Aug 2017	3	4	0	7
Sep 2017	127	32	3	162
Oct 2017	47	20	3	70
Nov 2017	21	15	2	38
Dec 2017	11	10	2	23
Jan 2018	10	12	1	23
Feb 2018	5	4	0	9
Mar 2018	13	8	2	23
Apr 2018	7	6	0	13
May 2018	8	7	1	16
Jun 2018	9	16	2	27
Jul 2018	14	12	1	27
Aug 2018	28	60	3	91
Sep 2018	10	8	1	19
Oct 2018	15	9	2	26
Nov 2018	6	7	3	16
Dec 2018	13	18	1	32
Jan 2019	6	5	1	12
Feb 2019	5	7	0	12
Mar 2019	5	12	5	22
Apr 2019	6	3	0	9
May 2019	4	7	0	11
Jun 2019	10	12	2	24
Jul 2019	13	5	0	18
Aug 2019	9	8	0	17
Sep 2019	4	7	3	14
Oct 2019	11	11	1	23
Nov 2019	4	0	4
Dec 2019	2	5	2	9
Jan 2020	11	13	2	26
Feb 2020	5	3	0	8
Mar 2020	2	5	0	7
Apr 2020	2	3	0	5
May 2020	6	7	0	13
Jun 2020	15	10	2	27
Jul 2020	24	28	11	63
Aug 2020	6	12	4	22
Sep 2020	12	6	0	18
Oct 2020	8	9	1	18
Nov 2020	6	7	2	15
Dec 2020	6	4	0	10
Jan 2021	11	8	0	19
Feb 2021	8	3	0	11
Mar 2021	8	6	0	14
Apr 2021	7	4	1	12
May 2021	4	9	1	14
Jun 2021	5	4	0	9
Jul 2021	4	11	1	16
Aug 2021	4	6	2	12
Sep 2021	18	6	1	25
Oct 2021	7	28	1	36
Nov 2021	2	26	0	28
Dec 2021	8	10	1	19
Jan 2022	8	9	0	17
Feb 2022	9	6	2	17
Mar 2022	5	6	0	11
Apr 2022	6	6	1	13
May 2022	8	7	4	19
Jun 2022	5	6	2	13
Jul 2022	5	3	1	9
Aug 2022	12	10	1	23
Sep 2022	6	3	0	9
Oct 2022	6	5	1	12
Nov 2022	16	8	0	24
Dec 2022	15	5	1	21
Jan 2023	9	10	1	20
Feb 2023	10	4	1	15
Mar 2023	15	5	1	21
Apr 2023	21	6	0	27
May 2023	21	8	3	32
Jun 2023	5	3	0	8
Jul 2023	5	8	0	13
Aug 2023	7	10	2	19
Sep 2023	6	15	0	21
Oct 2023	8	4	0	12
Nov 2023	3	1	0	4
Dec 2023	19	3	0	22
Jan 2024	13	8	2	23
Feb 2024	9	6	3	18
Mar 2024	4	11	1	16
Apr 2024	21	6	3	30
May 2024	19	9	5	33
Jun 2024	21	3	2	26
Jul 2024	16	7	2	25
Aug 2024	16	9	6	31
Sep 2024	12	10	3	25
Oct 2024	15	5	2	22
Nov 2024	7	4	0	11
Dec 2024	13	6	4	23
Jan 2025	18	7	0	25
Feb 2025	28	15	0	43
Mar 2025	16	7	1	24
Apr 2025	20	11	0	31
May 2025	16	8	1	25
Jun 2025	38	28	1	67
Jul 2025	27	14	2	43
Aug 2025	7	8	2	17
Sep 2025	18	20	1	39
Oct 2025	22	23	1	46
Nov 2025	28	29	4	61
Dec 2025	21	19	3	43

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Total article views: 2,648 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 2,506 with geography defined and 142 with unknown origin.

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1

1

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Short summary

Heatwave conditions prevailed at over wide regions of central and northern India during March–April–May 2016. A prevailing heatwave over India took more than 500 lives. Here we investigate the extreme events (heatwaves) using a high-resolution numerical weather prediction and its ensemble forecast in union with classical statistical scores to serve verification purposes.


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