Articles | Volume 16, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2391-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2391-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Nov 2016
Research article |
| 21 Nov 2016
An analysis of uncertainties and skill in forecasts of winter storm losses
Tobias Pardowitz
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Hans Ertel Centre for Weather Research, Optimal Use of Weather Forecast Branch, Berlin, Germany
Freie Universität Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Carl-Heinrich-Becker Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Robert Osinski
CNRM UMR 3589, Météo-France/CNRS, 42 avenue Gustave Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, France
Tim Kruschke
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
Uwe Ulbrich
Freie Universität Berlin, Institute of Meteorology, Carl-Heinrich-Becker Weg 6–10, 12165 Berlin, Germany
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Cited
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Predictive modeling of hourly probabilities for weather-related road accidents N. Becker et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020
- Using numerical weather model outputs to forecast wind gusts during typhoons T. Yang & C. Tsai 10.1016/j.jweia.2019.03.003
- Direct and Indirect Loss Evaluation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on Static and Dynamic Input-Output Models X. Jin et al. 10.3390/su12187347
- Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards B. Merz et al. 10.1029/2020RG000704
- Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms? J. Moemken et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024
- Antecedent rainfall, wind direction and seasonal effects may amplify the risk of wind-driven power outages in the UK C. Manning et al. 10.1038/s43247-025-02176-6
- Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts D. Gliksman et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023
- Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data A. Jaison et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024
- Temporal dynamic vulnerability – impact of antecedent events on residential building losses to wind storm events in Germany A. Trojand et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-2331-2025
- Windstorm losses in Europe – What to gain from damage datasets J. Moemken et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100661
- Tree fall along railway lines: modelling the impact of wind and other meteorological factors R. Lorenz et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-2179-2025
- Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts F. Pantillon et al. 10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017
- Objective identification of potentially damaging tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific D. Befort et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/ab7b35
- Towards operational impact forecasting of building damage from winter windstorms in Switzerland T. Röösli et al. 10.1002/met.2035
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Predictive modeling of hourly probabilities for weather-related road accidents N. Becker et al. 10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020
- Using numerical weather model outputs to forecast wind gusts during typhoons T. Yang & C. Tsai 10.1016/j.jweia.2019.03.003
- Direct and Indirect Loss Evaluation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on Static and Dynamic Input-Output Models X. Jin et al. 10.3390/su12187347
- Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards B. Merz et al. 10.1029/2020RG000704
- Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms? J. Moemken et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024
- Antecedent rainfall, wind direction and seasonal effects may amplify the risk of wind-driven power outages in the UK C. Manning et al. 10.1038/s43247-025-02176-6
- Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts D. Gliksman et al. 10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023
- Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data A. Jaison et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024
- Temporal dynamic vulnerability – impact of antecedent events on residential building losses to wind storm events in Germany A. Trojand et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-2331-2025
- Windstorm losses in Europe – What to gain from damage datasets J. Moemken et al. 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100661
- Tree fall along railway lines: modelling the impact of wind and other meteorological factors R. Lorenz et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-2179-2025
- Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts F. Pantillon et al. 10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017
- Objective identification of potentially damaging tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific D. Befort et al. 10.1088/2515-7620/ab7b35
- Towards operational impact forecasting of building damage from winter windstorms in Switzerland T. Röösli et al. 10.1002/met.2035
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 14 Aug 2025
Short summary
This paper describes an approach to derive probabilistic predictions of local winter storm damage occurrences. Such predictions are subject to large uncertainty due to meteorological forecast uncertainty and uncertainties in modelling weather impacts. The paper aims to quantify these uncertainties and demonstrate that valuable predictions can be made on the district level several days ahead.
This paper describes an approach to derive probabilistic predictions of local winter storm...
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