Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
Review article 26 Apr 2016
Review article | 26 Apr 2016
Multi-criteria decision-making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state of the art
Mariana Madruga de Brito and Mariele Evers
Luana Lavagnoli Moreira, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Masato Kobiyama
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Preprint under review for NHESS
Luana Lavagnoli Moreira, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Masato Kobiyama
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Preprint under review for NHESS
Glenda García-Santos, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Britta Höllermann, Linda Taft, Adrian Almoradie, and Mariele Evers
Proc. IAHS, 379, 83–87,Short summary
Our study presents the utility of a system dynamics modelling approach for water management and decision-making for the case of a forest ecosystem under risk of wildfires. We use the pluralistic water research concept to explore different scenarios and simulate the emergent behaviour of water interception and net precipitation after a wildfire in a forest ecosystem. Through a case study, we illustrate the applicability of this new methodology.
Mariana Madruga de Brito, Mariele Evers, and Adrian Delos Santos Almoradie
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 373–390,Short summary
This paper sheds light on the integration of interdisciplinary knowledge in the assessment of flood vulnerability in Taquari-Antas river basin, Brazil. It shows how stakeholder participation is crucial for increasing not only the acceptance of model results but also its quality.
Linda Taft and Mariele Evers
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4913–4928,Short summary
The country of Myanmar and its abundant water resources are facing major challenges due to political and economic reforms, massive investments from neighbouring countries and climate change impacts. Publications on current and future impacts from human activities and climate change on Myanmar's river basins have been reviewed in order to gain an overview of the key drivers in these human–water dynamics. The review reveals the relevance of this information with regard to human–water interactions.
B. Höllermann and M. Evers
Proc. IAHS, 370, 193–199,Short summary
Water management is challenged by socio-hydrological change and forced to make decisions under uncertainty. E.g. reservoir management aiming at flood mitigation copes with various aspects of uncertainty. The proposed framework condenses these aspects under a risk based approach and provides an overview of neuralgic points of uncertainty and fields of action and uncertainty reduction. The framework enables practitioners to consistently integrate uncertainties in their decision-making processes.
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management AspectsAssessing and zoning of typhoon storm surge risk with a geographic information system (GIS) technique: a case study of the coastal area of HuizhouRegional tropical cyclone impact functions for globally consistent risk assessmentsComparing an insurer's perspective on building damages with modelled damages from pan-European winter windstorm event sets: a case study from Zurich, SwitzerlandProbabilistic characterisation of coastal storm-induced risks using Bayesian networksA glimpse into the future of exposure and vulnerabilities in cities? Modelling of residential location choice of urban population with random forestInvited perspectives: Building sustainable and resilient communities – recommended actions for natural hazard scientistsDesign of parametric risk transfer solutions for volcanic eruptions: an application to Japanese volcanoesMulti-hazard risk assessment for roads: probabilistic versus deterministic approachesAre flood damage models converging to “reality”? Lessons learnt from a blind testBrief Communication: Simple-INSYDE, development of a new tool for flood damage evaluation from an existing synthetic modelA novel approach to assessing nuisance risk from seismicity induced by UK shale gas development, with implications for future policy designRapid flood risk screening model for compound flood events in Beira, MozambiqueTrends in social vulnerability to storm surges in Shenzhen, ChinaExploring the changes in risk perceptions and adaptation behaviors based on various socioeconomic characteristics before and after earthquake disasters – a case study in TaiwanAnthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, PeruFlood vulnerability and risk assessment of urban traditional buildings in a heritage district of Kuala Lumpur, MalaysiaA generic physical vulnerability model for floods: review and concept for data-scarce regionsNatural hazard impacts on transport infrastructure in RussiaSpatial seismic hazard variation and adaptive sampling of portfolio location uncertainty in probabilistic seismic risk analysisAre new open building data useful for flood vulnerability modelling?Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, IcelandEnhancing the operational value of snowpack models with visualization design principlesNetwork-risk: an open GIS toolbox for estimating the implications of transportation network damage due to natural hazards, tested for Bucharest, RomaniaA multi-hazard risk prioritisation framework for cultural heritage assetsModeling of E. coli distribution for hazard assessment of bathing waters affected by combined sewer overflowsMonitoring of the reconstruction process in a high mountainous area affected by a major earthquake and subsequent hazardsReview article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scaleA spatial decision support system for enhancing resilience to floods: bridging resilience modelling and geovisualization techniquesGlobal-scale benefit–cost analysis of coastal flood adaptation to different flood risk drivers using structural measuresFlash floods versus river floods – a comparison of psychological impacts and implications for precautionary behaviourUrban pluvial flood risk assessment – data resolution and spatial scale when developing screening approaches on the microscaleLinking drought indices to impacts to support drought risk assessment in Liaoning province, ChinaExamining the sustainability and development challenge in agricultural-forest frontiers of the Amazon Basin through the eyes of localsGlobal-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systemsReview article: Review of fragility analyses for major building types in China with new implications for intensity–PGA relation developmentThe whole is greater than the sum of its parts: a holistic graph-based assessment approach for natural hazard risk of complex systemsAssessing transportation vulnerability to tsunamis: utilising post-event field data from the 2011 Tōhoku tsunami, Japan, and the 2015 Illapel tsunami, ChileAnalysis of employment change in response to hurricane landfallsEstimating exposure of residential assets to natural hazards in Europe using open dataA flood-risk-oriented, dynamic protection motivation framework to explain risk reduction behavioursNature-based solutions for hydro-meteorological risk reduction: a state-of-the-art review of the research areaSandbag replacement systems – a nonsensical and costly alternative to sandbagging?Multi-coverage optimal location model for emergency medical service (EMS) facilities under various disaster scenarios: a case study of urban fluvial floods in the Minhang district of Shanghai, ChinaConstruction of regional multi-hazard interaction frameworks, with an application to GuatemalaEnhancing the resilience to flooding induced by levee breaches in lowland areas: a methodology based on numerical modellingImpact database application for natural and technological risk managementFramework to prioritize watersheds for diffuse pollution management in the Republic of Korea: application of multi-criteria analysis using the Delphi methodCrops' exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to drought occurrenceAGRIDE-c, a conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to crops: development and implementationEconomic assessment of precautionary measures against floods: insights from a non-contextual approach
Si Wang, Lin Mu, Zhenfeng Yao, Jia Gao, Enjin Zhao, and Lizhe Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 439–462,Short summary
The study provides a comprehensive assessment and zonation of hazard, vulnerability, and risk of storm surge caused by the designed typhoon scenarios in the coastal area of Huizhou. The risk maps can help decision-makers to develop evacuation strategies to minimize civilian casualties. The risk analysis can be utilized to identify risk regions to reduce economic losses. The proposed methodology and procedure can be applied to any coastal city in China for making risk assessments.
Samuel Eberenz, Samuel Lüthi, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 393–415,Short summary
Asset damage caused by tropical cyclones is often computed based on impact functions mapping wind speed to damage. However, a lack of regional impact functions can lead to a substantial bias in tropical cyclone risk estimates. Here, we present regionally calibrated impact functions, as well as global risk estimates. Our results are relevant for researchers, model developers, and practitioners in the context of global risk assessments, climate change adaptation, and physical risk disclosure.
Christoph Welker, Thomas Röösli, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 279–299,Short summary
How representative are local building insurers' claims to assess winter windstorm risk? In our case study of Zurich, we use a risk model for windstorm building damages and compare three different inputs: insurance claims and historical and probabilistic windstorm datasets. We find that long-term risk is more robustly assessed based on windstorm datasets than on claims data only. Our open-access method allows European building insurers to complement their risk assessment with modelling results.
Marc Sanuy and Jose A. Jiménez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 219–238,
Sebastian Scheuer, Dagmar Haase, Annegret Haase, Manuel Wolff, and Thilo Wellmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 203–217,Short summary
The choice of residential location is one of the drivers shaping risks in cities. We model likely outcomes of this decision-making process for distinct socioeconomic groups in the city of Leipzig, Germany, using random forests and geostatistical methods. In so doing, we uncover hot spots and cold spots that may indicate spatial patterns and trends in exposure and vulnerabilities of urban population, to shed light on how residential location choice affects these risk components as a process.
Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, Melanie J. Duncan, Solmaz Mohadjer, Mirianna Budimir, Hassan Mdala, and Vera Bukachi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 187–202,Short summary
This paper draws on the experiences of seven early career scientists, in different sectors and contexts, to explore the improved integration of natural hazard science into broader efforts to reduce the likelihood and impacts of disasters. We include recommendations for natural hazard scientists, to improve education, training, and research design and to strengthen institutional, financial, and policy actions. We hope to provoke discussion and catalyse changes that will help reduce disaster risk.
Delioma Oramas-Dorta, Giulio Tirabassi, Guillermo Franco, and Christina Magill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 99–113,Short summary
Large volcanic eruptions are rare events; however, they may cause significant economic losses. This work explores a specific type of insurance (parametric insurance) applied to such events. Unlike traditional insurance where payouts occur after often lengthy loss assessments, this type of insurance makes automatic and prompt payments on the basis of the eruption attaining threshold values for objective and easily measurable characteristics (height and direction of the eruption column).
Stefan Oberndorfer, Philip Sander, and Sven Fuchs
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3135–3160,Short summary
The article provides a comparison of a standard (deterministic) risk assessment approach for roads exposed to a multi-hazard environment with a probabilistic risk analysis method to show the potential bias in the results. A probabilistic approach enables the quantification of epistemic uncertainty and uses probability distributions to characterize data uncertainty of the input variables, while a deterministic computation uses single values with discrete values without uncertainty representation.
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Chiara Arrighi, Francesca Carisi, Fabio Castelli, Alessio Domeneghetti, Alice Gallazzi, Marta Galliani, Frédéric Grelot, Patric Kellermann, Heidi Kreibich, Guilherme S. Mohor, Markus Mosimann, Stephanie Natho, Claire Richert, Kai Schroeter, Annegret H. Thieken, Andreas Paul Zischg, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2997–3017,Short summary
Flood risk management requires a realistic estimation of flood losses. However, the capacity of available flood damage models to depict real damages is questionable. With a joint effort of eight research groups, the objective of this study was to compare the performances of nine models for the estimation of flood damage to buildings. The comparison provided more objective insights on the transferability of the models and on the reliability of their estimations.
Marta Galliani, Daniela Molinari, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2937–2941,Short summary
INSYDE is a multivariable synthetic model for flood damage assessment of dwellings. The analysis and use of this model highlighted some weaknesses, linked to its complexity, that can undermine its usability and correct implementation. This study proposes a simplified version of INSYDE which maintains its multivariable and synthetic nature but has simpler mathematical formulations permitting an easier use and a direct analysis of the relation between damage and its explanatory variables.
Gemma Cremen and Maximilian J. Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2701–2719,Short summary
We develop a framework that links the volume of hydraulic fracturing fluid injected during shale gas exploration with the likelihood that resulting seismicity causes a nuisance to nearby populations. We apply the framework to a shale gas site in England and find that the potential of a given injected volume to produce nuisance ground motions is especially sensitive to assumptions about the amount of seismic energy released during operations. The work can inform policy on shale gas exploration.
Erik C. van Berchum, Mathijs van Ledden, Jos S. Timmermans, Jan H. Kwakkel, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2633–2646,Short summary
Flood risk management is especially complicated in coastal cities. The complexity of multiple flood hazards in a rapidly changing urban environment leads to a situation with many different potential measures and future scenarios. This research demonstrates a new model capable of quickly simulating flood impact and comparing many different strategies. This is applied to the city of Beira, where it was able to provide new insights into the local flood risk and potential strategies.
Huaming Yu, Yuhang Shen, Ryan M. Kelly, Xin Qi, Kejian Wu, Songlin Li, Haiqing Yu, and Xianwen Bao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2447–2462,Short summary
This study establishes an indicator system for social vulnerability evaluation of storm surges for coastal cities. The indicator system is applied to Shenzhen, China, and socioeconomic impacts are discovered in the results. Exposure, sensitivity, and resilience all show an increasing trend from 1986 to 2016, as resilience accounts for the largest increase and is connected to a decreasing social vulnerability trend.
Tzu-Ling Chen, Tzu-Yuan Chao, and Hao-Teng Cheng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2433–2446,Short summary
Although disaster experience does indeed play an important role in helping people become aware of earthquake risk, disaster experience does not necessarily increase people’s willingness to retrofit their houses. People with higher education and certain occupations represent those who might have more available resources, and therefore they might become more willing to prepare for and respond to disasters.
Christian Huggel, Mark Carey, Adam Emmer, Holger Frey, Noah Walker-Crawford, and Ivo Wallimann-Helmer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2175–2193,Short summary
There is increasing interest and need to analyze the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to negative impacts of climate change. We study the case of glacial lake Palcacocha in Peru, which poses a significant flood risk to the city of Huaraz. We found that greenhouse gas emissions; strong urbanization processes without appropriate land use planning; and social, cultural, political, and institutional factors all contribute to the existing flood risk.
Dina D'Ayala, Kai Wang, Yuan Yan, Helen Smith, Ashleigh Massam, Valeriya Filipova, and Joy Jacqueline Pereira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2221–2241,Short summary
A localized empirical model consisting of multilevel parameters has been built to evaluate the flood vulnerability of residential buildings in a heritage community of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. A new economic loss model is developed to quantify the flood risk in terms of replacement cost, taking into account both specific vulnerability and a normalized depth–damage ratio function. The findings provide multiscale flood-resistant strategies for the protection of individual residential buildings.
Mark Bawa Malgwi, Sven Fuchs, and Margreth Keiler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2067–2090,Short summary
Mitigation planning and economic loss assessment generally rely on flood damage prediction models. However, unavailability of empirical data has limited the use of such models in data-scarce areas. This paper combines the vulnerability indicator and damage grade approach to develop a conceptual framework for predicting building damage in data-scarce regions. The framework can be implemented using only expert knowledge and facilitates transferability of flood damage models in data-scarce areas.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1969–1983,Short summary
Using the information of the author's database, contributions of natural hazards and adverse weather to occurrences of different types of transport accidents and traffic disruptions including road, railway, air, and water transport were revealed. Regional differences in the risk of transport accidents and traffic disruptions caused by adverse natural impacts between Russian federal regions were found. The resulting maps were created and analyzed. Regions most at risk were identified.
Christoph Scheingraber and Martin Käser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1903–1918,Short summary
Probabilistic seismic risk analysis is widely used in the insurance industry to model losses to insured portfolios by earthquake events. Risk items are often only known to be located within an administrative geographical zone, but precise coordinates remain unknown to the modeler. We analyze spatial seismic hazard and loss rate variation inside administrative zones in western Indonesia. Building upon this, we present a novel framework for efficient treatment of portfolio location uncertainty.
Marco Cerri, Max Steinhausen, Heidi Kreibich, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Effective flood management requires information about the potential consequences of flooding. We show how openly accessible data from OpenStreetMap can support the estimation of flood damage for residential buildings. Working with methods of machine learning, the building geometry is used to predict flood damage in combination with information about inundation depth. Our approach makes it easier to transfer models to regions where no detailed data of flood impacts have been observed yet.
Marco Broccardo, Arnaud Mignan, Francesco Grigoli, Dimitrios Karvounis, Antonio Pio Rinaldi, Laurentiu Danciu, Hannes Hofmann, Claus Milkereit, Torsten Dahm, Günter Zimmermann, Vala Hjörleifsdóttir, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1573–1593,Short summary
This study presents a first-of-its-kind pre-drilling probabilistic induced seismic risk analysis for the Geldinganes (Iceland) deep-hydraulic stimulation. The results of the assessment indicate that the individual risk within a radius of 2 km around the injection point is below the safety limits. However, the analysis is affected by a large variability due to the presence of pre-drilling deep uncertainties. This suggests the need for online risk updating during the stimulation.
Simon Horton, Stan Nowak, and Pascal Haegeli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1557–1572,Short summary
Numeric snowpack models currently offer limited value to operational avalanche forecasters. To improve the relevance and interpretability of model data, we introduce and discuss visualization principles that map model data into visual representations that can inform avalanche hazard assessments.
Dragos Toma-Danila, Iuliana Armas, and Alexandru Tiganescu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1421–1439,Short summary
Natural hazards have an increasing impact on transportation networks. In order to analyze it we developed Network-risk – an open toolbox for ArcGIS. The toolbox links input data such as network datasets (also OpenStreetMap – OSM – data), traffic values or segments which can be affected, determining the difficulty to reach an area and enabling evaluation of socioeconomic implications. By testing Network-risk for Bucharest we show areas difficult to reach by emergency units in earthquakes.
Giacomo Sevieri, Carmine Galasso, Dina D'Ayala, Richard De Jesus, Andres Oreta, Mary Earl Daryl A. Grio, and Rhodella Ibabao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1391–1414,Short summary
Multi-hazard risk assessment of cultural heritage assets is of primary importance in natural-hazard-prone areas, particularly for the prioritization of disaster risk reduction and resilience-enhancing strategies. This paper introduces a multi-hazard risk prioritisation framework specifically developed for cultural heritage assets. The proposed framework relies on a multi-level rapid-visual-survey form for the multi-hazard data collection and risk prioritization of case-study assets.
Luca Locatelli, Beniamino Russo, Alejandro Acero Oliete, Juan Carlos Sánchez Catalán, Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz, and Montse Martínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1219–1232,Short summary
Bathing water quality at public beaches is often compromised by the presence of urban sewer systems that usually discharge, mostly during rainfalls, untreated sewer water into lakes, rivers or seas. In this study we analyzed and quantified the impact of sewer discharges into the sea of a large Spanish city. This study provides a useful idea for local water managers and for people bathing in these areas about how long and how much an urban sewer system can affect the seawater quality.
Chenxiao Tang, Xinlei Liu, Yinghua Cai, Cees Van Westen, Yu Yang, Hai Tang, Chengzhang Yang, and Chuan Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1163–1186,Short summary
Recovering from major earthquakes is a challenge due to a destablized environment. Over 11 years, we monitored a region hit by the Wenchuan earthquake, finding the loss caused by postseismic hazards was more than that caused by the earthquake. The main reason was a rush in reconstruction without proper hazard and risk assessment. It was concluded that postseismic recovery should consider not only spatial but also temporal dynamics of hazards as well as possible interaction among hazards.
Philip J. Ward, Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, Susanna F. Jenkins, Dalia Kirschbaum, Michael Kunz, Susanna Mohr, Sanne Muis, Graeme A. Riddell, Andreas Schäfer, Thomas Stanley, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096,Short summary
We review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards and identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales.
Charlotte Heinzlef, Vincent Becue, and Damien Serre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1049–1068,Short summary
The objective of this article is to propose a spatial decision support tool based on geovisualization techniques and a resilience assessment method for flood risk management. The methodology proposed integrates decision-making by identifying characteristics of urban resilience to facilitate its understanding with a visual tool. Results demonstrate a way to operationalize the concept of resilience at a local scale, integrating local stakeholders into a participative process.
Timothy Tiggeloven, Hans de Moel, Hessel C. Winsemius, Dirk Eilander, Gilles Erkens, Eskedar Gebremedhin, Andres Diaz Loaiza, Samantha Kuzma, Tianyi Luo, Charles Iceland, Arno Bouwman, Jolien van Huijstee, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1025–1044,Short summary
We present a framework to evaluate the benefits and costs of coastal adaptation through dikes to reduce future flood risk. If no adaptation takes place, we find that global coastal flood risk increases 150-fold by 2080, with sea-level rise contributing the most. Moreover, 15 countries account for 90 % of this increase; that adaptation shows high potential to cost-effectively reduce flood risk. The results will be integrated into the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer web tool.
Jonas Laudan, Gert Zöller, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 999–1023,Short summary
The paper focuses on psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods on affected individuals. Since the connection between psychological characteristics and protection motivation is not yet fully understood, potential coherences are investigated with regard to both flood types. As a main result, the frequency of remembering an event seems to be positively connected to a greater willingness to protect oneself, especially if affected by a weaker flood event.
Roland Löwe and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 981–997,Short summary
To consider potential future urban developments in pluvial flood risk assessment, we develop empirical relationships for imperviousness and flood damage based on an analysis of existing urban characteristics. Results suggest that (1) data resolutions must be carefully selected, (2) there are lower limits for the spatial scale at which predictions can be generated, and (3) depth-dependent damage estimates are challenging to reproduce empirically and can be vulnerable to simulation artifacts.
Yaxu Wang, Juan Lv, Jamie Hannaford, Yicheng Wang, Hongquan Sun, Lucy J. Barker, Miaomiao Ma, Zhicheng Su, and Michael Eastman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 889–906,Short summary
Due to the specific applicability of drought impact indicators, this study identifies which drought indicators are suitable for characterising drought impacts and the contribution of vulnerability factors. The results show that the relationship varies across different drought impacts and cities; some factors have a strong positive correlation with drought vulnerability. This study can support drought planning work and provide background for the indices used in drought monitoring applications.
Irene Blanco-Gutiérrez, Rhys Manners, Consuelo Varela-Ortega, Ana M. Tarquis, Lucieta G. Martorano, and Marisol Toledo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 797–813,Short summary
The Amazon rainforest is being destroyed, resulting in negative ecological and social impacts. We explore how stakeholders perceive the causes of the Amazon's degradation in Bolivia and Brazil and develop a series of scenarios to help strengthen the balance between human development and environmental conservation. The results suggest that the application of governance and well-integrated technical and social reform strategies encourages positive regional changes even under climate change.
Isabel Meza, Stefan Siebert, Petra Döll, Jürgen Kusche, Claudia Herbert, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Hamideh Nouri, Helena Gerdener, Eklavyya Popat, Janna Frischen, Gustavo Naumann, Jürgen V. Vogt, Yvonne Walz, Zita Sebesvari, and Michael Hagenlocher
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 695–712,Short summary
The paper presents, for the first time, a global-scale drought risk assessment for both irrigated and rainfed agricultural systems while considering drought hazard indicators, exposure and expert-weighted vulnerability indicators. We identify global patterns of drought risk and, by disaggregating risk into its underlying components and factors, provide entry points for risk reduction.
Danhua Xin, James Edward Daniell, and Friedemann Wenzel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 643–672,Short summary
Field surveys after major disastrous earthquakes have shown that poor performance of buildings in earthquake-affected areas is the leading cause of human fatalities and economic losses. The evaluation of seismic fragility for existing building stocks has become a crucial issue due to the frequent occurrence of earthquakes in the last decades. This study conducts such a comprehensive review for mainland China and aims to better serve the natural disaster prevention and mitigation cause in China.
Marcello Arosio, Mario L. V. Martina, and Rui Figueiredo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 521–547,Short summary
Assessing the risk of complex systems to natural hazards is an important and challenging problem. In today’s socio-technological world, the connections and interdependencies between exposed elements are crucial. These complex relations call for a paradigm shift in collective risk assessment. This paper proposes a holistic, graph-based approach for assessing the risk of complex systems. The feasibility of the approach is discussed by an application to a pilot study in Mexico City.
James H. Williams, Thomas M. Wilson, Nick Horspool, Ryan Paulik, Liam Wotherspoon, Emily M. Lane, and Matthew W. Hughes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 451–470,Short summary
Post-event field survey data from two tsunami events, the 2011 Tōhoku tsunami, Japan, and the 2015 Illapel tsunami, Chile, are used in this study to develop fragility functions for roads and bridges. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of supplementing post-event field surveys with remotely sensed data. The resulting fragility functions address a substantial research gap in tsunami impacts on infrastructure and include a range of subtleties in asset and hazard characteristics.
Yuepeng Cui, Daan Liang, and Bradley Ewing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 413–424,Short summary
The methodology presented in this paper is considered an important entry point to addressing the complex problems related to disaster resilience. Regardless of storms, hurricane impact on local employment is found to be either temporary or permanent in nature. Relating the concept of resilience to observable socioeconomic activities helps us gain a deeper understanding of the drivers and processes of post-storm recovery. Studies play a major role in bridging knowledge gaps.
Dominik Paprotny, Heidi Kreibich, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Paweł Terefenko, and Kai Schröter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 323–343,Short summary
Houses and their contents in Europe are worth trillions of euros, resulting in high losses from natural hazards. Hence, risk assessments need to reliably estimate the size and value of houses, including the value of durable goods kept inside. In this work we show how openly available or open datasets can be used to predict the size of individual residential buildings. Further, we provide standardized monetary values of houses and contents per square metre of floor space for 30 countries.
Philippe Weyrich, Elena Mondino, Marco Borga, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anthony Patt, and Anna Scolobig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 287–298,
Laddaporn Ruangpan, Zoran Vojinovic, Silvana Di Sabatino, Laura Sandra Leo, Vittoria Capobianco, Amy M. P. Oen, Michael E. McClain, and Elena Lopez-Gunn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 243–270,Short summary
This article aims to provide a critical review of the literature and indicate some directions for future research based on the current knowledge gaps in the area of nature-based solutions (NBSs) for hydro-meteorological risk reduction. The final full analysis was performed on 146 closely related articles. A review showed that many advancements related to NBSs have been made to date, but there are still many challenges that will play an important role in extending knowledge in the coming years.
Lena Lankenau, Christopher Massolle, Bärbel Koppe, and Veronique Krull
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 197–220,Short summary
Sandbag and sandbag replacement systems (SBRSs) for flood defence are compared in terms of functionality (practical tests), costs, time, helpers and logistics (fictitious realistic scenarios). SBRSs are comparable in their functionality to sandbagging. All of the SBRSs considered show time-saving and logistical advantages. Under the assumed conditions, the higher investment costs of the SBRSs are offset with one subsequent reuse of the system owing to lower costs for helpers and logistics.
Yuhan Yang, Jie Yin, Mingwu Ye, Dunxian She, and Jia Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 181–195,Short summary
Emergency medical service (EMS) response is important for pre-hospital lifesaving, but disasters increase the difficulty of rescue, which increases the pressure on EMS facilities. In order to avoid the failure of EMS facilities during disasters, we propose a multi-coverage optimal location model for EMS facilities based on results of disaster risk assessment. Results showed that the optimized EMS locations reduced the delay in response and significantly increased the number of rescued people.
Joel C. Gill, Bruce D. Malamud, Edy Manolo Barillas, and Alex Guerra Noriega
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 149–180,Short summary
This paper describes a replicable approach for characterising interactions between natural hazards. Guatemala is exposed to multiple natural hazards, which do not always occur independently. There can be interactions between natural hazards. For example, one hazard may trigger multiple secondary hazards, which can subsequently trigger further hazards. Here we use diverse evidence of such interactions to construct matrices of hazard interactions in Guatemala at national and sub-national scales.
Alessia Ferrari, Susanna Dazzi, Renato Vacondio, and Paolo Mignosa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 59–72,Short summary
With the aim of improving resilience to flooding, this paper presents a methodology for creating a wide database of hypothetical levee-breach scenarios obtained from 2-D numerical modelling. The results can support civil protection activities during emergency planning and management, increasing preparedness against floods. The methodology is applicable to any lowland area protected by river levees. An example of the outcome concerning a pilot area in northern Italy is presented here.
Nina Frolova, Valery Larionov, Jean Bonnin, Sergey Suchshev, Alexander Ugarov, and Nataliya Malaeva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 95–106,Short summary
The paper is devoted to the structure and content of impact databases for natural disasters and technological accidents. The application of the database for disaster risk assessment and management is highlighted. Special attention is paid to usage of impact data for calibration of earthquake loss models in order to increase the reliability of near-real-time estimates.
Gyumin Lee, Kyung Soo Jun, and Minji Kang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2767–2779,Short summary
This study proposes a system for the scientific selection of evaluation indices and priority areas for non-point source control. We developed a framework to prioritize catchments in terms of the risk of non-point source pollution considering the characteristics of polluted runoff from a non-point source using a multi-criteria decision-making method.
Catarina Alonso, Celia M. Gouveia, Ana Russo, and Patrícia Páscoa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2727–2743,Short summary
A vulnerability assessment method is proposed to identify the most vulnerable regions over Portugal. Two methods were compared, namely a subjective categorical method and an automatic method, based on drought indicators, vegetation indices and soil variables. Both methods present similar results, and both identify Minho (Alentejo) as having low (extreme) vulnerability. The automatic method has advantages, as it is fully statistical and presents results without prior knowledge of the region.
Daniela Molinari, Anna Rita Scorzini, Alice Gallazzi, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2565–2582,Short summary
The paper presents AGRIDE-c: a conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to crops. The model estimates both the physical damage on the plants and its economic consequences on the income of the farmers. This allows AGRIDE-c to support effective damage mitigation strategies, at both public and individual farmer levels. The model can be adapted to different geographical and economic contexts, as exemplified by its implementation for the context of northern Italy.
Claire Richert, Hélène Boisgontier, and Frédéric Grelot
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2525–2539,Short summary
To limit the losses due to floods, people can adopt measures to protect their dwellings. We assessed the cost and efficacy of such measures using computer modelling. We found that the benefits of most of the measures studied are unlikely to exceed their cost when they are taken in dwellings that are not exposed to frequent floods (probability of occurrence of less than 1 / 100 per year). It is also often less expensive to use building materials adapted to floods than other common materials.
Abdullah, L. and Adawiyah, C. W. R.: Simple additive weighting methods of multi criteria decision making and applications: a decade review, Int. J. Inf. Process. Manage., 5, 39–49, 2014.
Affeletranger, B.: Public participation in the design of local strategies for flood mitigation and control, International Hydrological Programme, Technical Documents in Hydrology no. 48, UNESCO, Paris, 2001.
Akter, T. and Simonovic, S. P.: Aggregation of fuzzy views of a large number of stakeholders for multi-objective flood management decision-making, J. Environ. Manage., 77, 133–143, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2005.02.015, 2005.
Alipour, M. H.: Risk-informed decision making framework for opperating a multi-purpose hydropower reservoir during flooding and high inflow events, case study: Cheakamus River System, Water Resour. Manage., 29, 801–815, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0844-3, 2015.
Almoradie, A., Cortes, V. J., and Jonoski, A.: Web-based stakeholder collaboration in flood risk management, J. Flood Risk Manage., 8, 19–38, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12076, 2015.
Azibi, R. and Vanderpooten, D.: Aggregation of dispersed consequences for constructing criteria: the evaluation of flood risk reduction strategies, Eur. J. Oper. Res., 144, 397–411, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(01)00400-3, 2003.
Balica, S. F., Popescu, I., Beevers, L., and Wright, N. G.: Parametric and physically based modelling techniques for flood risk and vulnerability assessment: A comparison, Environ. Model. Softw., 41, 84–92, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.11.002, 2013.
Ballestero, E. and Bernabeu, A. G.: Compromise programing and utility functions, in: Socially responsible investment – a multi-criteria decision making approach, edited by: Ballestero, E., Pérez-Gladish, B., and Bernabeu, A. G., Springer International Publishing, Cham., 155–175, 2015.
Bana e Costa, C. A., Silva, P. A., and Correia, F. N.: Multicriteria evaluation of flood control measures: the case of Ribeira do Livramento, Water Resour. Manage., 18, 263–283, https://doi.org/10.1023/B:WARM.0000043163.19531.6a, 2004.
Beecham, S., Baddoo, N., Hall, T., Robinson, H., and Sharp, H.: Motivation in software engineering: a systematic literature review, Inf. Softw. Technol., 50, 860–878, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.infsof.2007.09.004, 2008.
Behzadian, M., Kazemzadeh, R. B., Albadvi, A., and Aghdasi, M.: PROMETHEE: a comprehensive literature review on methodologies and applications, Eur. J. Oper. Res., 200, 198–215, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2009.01.021, 2010.
Behzadian, M., Otaghsara, S. K., Yazdani, M., and Ignatius, J.: A state-of the-art survey of TOPSIS applications, Expert Syst. Appl., 39, 13051–13069, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2012.05.056, 2012.
Belton, V.: Multi-criteria problem structuring and analysis in a value theory framework, in: Multicriteria Decision Making Advances in MCDM Models, Algorithms, Theory and Applications, edited by: Gal, T., Stewart, T. J., and Hanne, T., Springer US, New York, 335–366, 1999.
Broekhuizen, H., Groothuis-Oudshoorn, C. G. M., van Til, J. A., Hummel, J. M., and IJzerman, M. J.: A review and classification of approaches for dealing with uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis for healthcare decisions, Pharmacoeconomics, 33, 445–455, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40273-014-0251-x, 2015.
Ceccato, L., Giannini, V., and Giupponi, C.: Participatory assessment of adaptation strategies to flood risk in the Upper Brahmaputra and Danube river basins, Environ. Sci. Policy, 14, 1163–1174, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2011.05.016, 2011.
Chen, H., Ito, Y., Sawamukai, M., and Tokunaga, T.: Flood hazard assessment in the Kujukuri Plain of Chiba Prefecture, Japan, based on GIS and multicriteria decision analysis, Nat. Hazards, 78, 105–120, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1699-5, 2015.
Chen, S. and Hou, Z.: Multicriterion decision making for flood control operations: theory and applications, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 40, 67–76, 2004.
Chitsaz, N. and Banihabib, M. E.: Comparison of different multi criteria decision-making models in prioritizing flood management alternatives, Water Resour. Manage., 29, 2503–2525, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-0954-6, 2015.
Chung, E., Won, K., Kim, Y., and Lee, H.: Water resource vulnerability characteristics by district's population size in a changing climate using subjective and objective weights, Sustainability, 6, 6141–6157, https://doi.org/10.3390/su6096141, 2014.
Chung, E. S. and Lee, K. S.: Identification of spatial ranking of hydrological vulnerability using multi-criteria decision making techniques: Case study of Korea, Water Resour. Manage., 23, 2395–2416, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-008-9387-9, 2009.
Cinelli, M., Coles, S. R., and Kirwan, K.: Analysis of the potentials of multi criteria decision analysis methods to conduct sustainability assessment, Ecol. Indic., 46, 138–148, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.06.011, 2014.
Cozannet, G. L., Garcin, M., Bulteau, T., Mirgon, C., Yates, M. L., Méndez, M., Baills, A., Idier, D., and Oliveros, C.: An AHP-derived method for mapping the physical vulnerability of coastal areas at regional scales, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1209–1227, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1209-2013, 2013.
CRED and OFDA: EM-DAT International Disaster Database, available at: http://www.emdat.be/, last access: 30 September 2015.
Dang, N. M., Babel, M. S., and Luong, H. T.: Evaluation of food risk parameters in the Day river flood diversion area, Red River Delta, Vietnam, Nat. Hazards, 56, 169–194, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9558-x, 2011.
de Kort, I. A. T. and Booij, M. J.: Decision making under uncertainty in a decision support system for the Red River, Environ. Model. Softw., 22, 128–136, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.07.014, 2007.
Deshmukh, A., Oh, E. H., and Hastak, M.: Impact of flood damaged critical infrastructure on communities and industries, Built Environ. Proj. Asset Manage., 1, 156–175, https://doi.org/10.1108/20441241111180415, 2011.
Dou, Y., Sarkis, J., and Bai, C.: Government Green Procurement: A Fuzzy-DEMATEL Analysis of Barriers, in: Supply Chain Management Under Fuzziness: Recent Developments and Techniques, edited by: Kahraman, C. and Öztayşi, B., Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, 567–589, 2014.
Drozino, B., Oliveira, F. B. R., and Samed, M. M. A.: AHP method applied to the location problem of an assistance central for emergency situations in the state of Paraná, Rev. Tecnol., 24, 131–141, https://doi.org/10.4025/revtecnol.v24i1.27410, 2015.
Edjossan-Sossou, A. M., Deck, O., Al Heib, M., and Verdel, T.: A decision-support methodology for assessing the sustainability of natural risk management strategies in urban areas, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 3207–3230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3207-2014, 2014.
Estévez, R. A. and Gelcich, S.: Participative multi-criteria decision analysis in marine management and conservation: Research progress and the challenge of integrating value judgments and uncertainty, Mar. Policy, 61, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2015.06.022, 2015.
Evers, M.: Decision support systems for integrated river basin management: requirements for appropriate tools and structures for a comprehensive planning approach, University of Hanover, Hanover, 370 pp., 2008.
Evers, M., Jonoski, A., Maksimovič, Č., Lange, L., Ochoa Rodriguez, S., Teklesadik, A., Cortes Arevalo, J., Almoradie, A., Eduardo Simões, N., Wang, L., and Makropoulos, C.: Collaborative modelling for active involvement of stakeholders in urban flood risk management, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2821–2842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-2821-2012, 2012.
Evers, M., Almoradie, A., and Jonoski, A.: Web based collaborative decision making in flood risk management, EGU General Assembly, 16, 15614, 2014.
Fernández, D. S. and Lutz, M. A.: Urban flood hazard zoning in Tucumán Province, Argentina, using GIS and multicriteria decision analysis, Eng. Geol., 111, 90–98, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2009.12.006, 2010.
Figueira, J. R., Greco, S., Roy, B., and Slowinski, R.: An overview of ELECTRE methods and their recent extensions, J. Multi-Crit. Decis. Anal., 20, 61–85, https://doi.org/10.1002/mcda.1482, 2013.
Ghanbarpour, M. R., Salimi, S., and Hipel, K. W.: A comparative evaluation of flood mitigation alternatives using GIS-based river hydraulics modelling and multicriteria decision analysis, J. Flood Risk Manage., 6, 319–331, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12017, 2013.
Giupponi, C., Sgobbi, A., Mysiak, J., Camera, R., and Fassio, A.: Netsymod – an integrated approach for water resources management, Integr. Water Manage., 80, 69–93, 2008.
Giupponi, C., Giove, S., and Giannini, V.: A dynamic assessment tool for exploring and communicating vulnerability to floods and climate change, Environ. Model. Softw., 44, 136–147, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.05.004, 2013.
Godfrey, A., Ciurean, R. L., van Westen, C. J., Kingma, N. C., and Glade, T.: Assessing vulnerability of buildings to hydro-meteorological hazards using an expert based approach – An application in Nehoiu Valley, Romania, Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct., 13, 229–241, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.06.001, 2015.
Govindan, K. and Jepsen, M. B.: ELECTRE: A comprehensive literature review on methodologies and applications, Eur. J. Oper. Res., 250, 1–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.07.019, 2016.
Guitouni, A. and Martel, J.-M.: Tentative guidelines to help choosing an appropriate MCDA method, Eur. J. Oper. Res., 109, 501–521, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(98)00073-3, 1998.
Guo, E., Zhang, J., Ren, X., Zhang, Q., and Sun, Z.: Integrated risk assessment of flood disaster based on improved set pair analysis and the variable fuzzy set theory in central Liaoning Province, China, Nat. Hazards, 74, 947–965, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1238-9, 2014.
Hajkowicz, S. and Collins, K.: A review of multiple criteria analysis for water resource planning and management, Water Resour. Manage., 21, 1553–1566, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9112-5, 2007.
Haque, A. N., Grafakos, S., and Huijsman, M.: Participatory integrated assessment of flood protection measures for climate adaptation in Dhaka, Environ. Urban., 24, 197–213, https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247811433538, 2012.
Hsu, C. and Sandford, B.: The delphi technique: making sense of consensus, Pract. Assess. Res. Eval., 12, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(99)00018-7, 2007.
Ishizaka, A. and Nemery, P.: Multi-criteria decision analysis: methods and software, Wiley, Chichester, p. 310, 2013.
Jato-Espino, D., Castillo-Lopez, E., Rodriguez-Hernandez, J., and Canteras-Jordana, J. C.: A review of application of multi-criteria decision making methods in construction, Autom. Constr., 45, 151–162, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2014.05.013, 2014.
Jun, K. S., Chung, E. S., Sung, J. Y., and Lee, K. S.: Development of spatial water resources vulnerability index considering climate change impacts, Sci. Total Environ., 409, 5228–5242, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.08.027, 2011.
Kandilioti, G. and Makropoulos, C.: Preliminary flood risk assessment: the case of Athens, Nat. Hazards, 61, 441–468, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9930-5, 2012.
Kangas, J., Kangas, A., Leskinen, P., and Pykäläinen, J.: MCDM methods in strategic planning of forestry on state-owned lands in Finland: applications and experiences, J. Multi-Crit. Decis. Anal., 10, 257–271, https://doi.org/10.1002/mcda.306, 2001.
Kenyon, W.: Evaluating flood risk management options in Scotland: a participant-led multi-criteria approach, Ecol. Econ., 64, 70–81, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2007.06.011, 2007.
Kienberger, S., Lang, S., and Zeil, P.: Spatial vulnerability units – expert-based spatial modelling of socio-economic vulnerability in the Salzach catchment, Austria, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 767–778, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-767-2009, 2009.
Lee, G., Jun, K. S., and Chung, E. S.: Integrated multi-criteria flood vulnerability approach using fuzzy TOPSIS and Delphi technique, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1293–1312, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1293-2013, 2013.
Lee, G., Jun, K. S., and Chung, E.: Robust spatial flood vulnerability assessment for Han River using fuzzy TOPSIS with α-cut level set, Expert Syst. Appl., 41, 644–654, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2013.07.089, 2014.
Lee, G., Jun, K. S., and Chung, E.-S.: Group decision-making approach for flood vulnerability identification using the fuzzy VIKOR method, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 863–874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-863-2015, 2015.
Lee, K. S. and Chung, E. S.: Development of integrated watershed management schemes for an intensively urbanized region in Korea, J. Hydro-Environ. Res., 1, 95–109, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jher.2007.07.004, 2007.
Li, F., Li, Z.-K., and Yang, C.-B.: Risk Assessment of Levee Engineering Based on Triangular Fuzzy Number and Analytic Network Process and Its Application, in: Modeling Risk Management in Sustainable Construction, edited by: Wu, D. D., Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, Berlin, 415–426, 2011.
Li, Q.: Fuzzy approach to analysis of flood risk based on variable fuzzy sets and improved information diffusion methods, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 239–249, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-239-2013, 2013.
Linkov, I., Varguese, A., Jamil, S., Seager, T. P., Kiker, G., and Bridges, T.: Multi-criteria decision analysis: a framework for structuring remedial decisions at contaminated sites, in Comparative risk assessment and environmental decision making, edited by: Linkov, I. and Ramadan, A. B., Kluwer Academic Publishers, New York, 15–54, 2004.
Liu, X., Hu, X., and Wang, T.: Rapid assessment of flood loss based on neural network ensemble, Trans. Nonferrous Met. Soc. China, 24, 2636–2641, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1003-6326(14)63393-8, 2014.
Magalhães, I. A. L., Thiago, C. R. L., Agrizzi, D. V., and Santos, A. R.: Geotechnology for use mapping of flood risk areas in Guaçuí, ES: a comparative analysis between two methods, Cad. Geociências, 8, 63–70 available at: http://www.portalseer.ufba.br/index.php/cadgeoc/article/view/5288 (last access: 24 April 2016), 2011.
Malczewski, J.: GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 408 pp., 1999.
Malczewski, J.: GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis: a survey of the literature, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci., 20, 703–726, https://doi.org/10.1080/13658810600661508, 2007.
Malekian, A. and Azarnivand, A.: Application of Integrated Shannon's Entropy and VIKOR Techniques in Prioritization of Flood Risk in the Shemshak Watershed, Iran, Water Resour. Manage., 30, 409–425, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1169-6, 2015.
Margeta, J. and Knezic, S.: Selection of the flood management solution of Karstic Field, Water Int., 27, 431–441, https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060208687022, 2002.
Marttunen, M., Mustajoki, J., Dufva, M., and Karjalainen, T. P.: How to design and realize participation of stakeholders in MCDA processes? A framework for selecting an appropriate approach, EURO J. Decis. Process., 3, 187–214, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40070-013-0016-3, 2013.
Mateo, J. R. S. C. (Ed.): Multi Criteria Analysis in the Renewable Energy Industry, Springer London, London, 105 pp., https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-2346-0, 2012a.
Mateo, J. R. S. C. (Ed.): VIKOR, in Multi criteria analysis in the renewable energy industry, Springer, London, 49–53, 2012b.
Mendoza, G. A. and Martins, H.: Multi-criteria decision analysis in natural resource management: A critical review of methods and new modelling paradigms, Forest. Ecol. Manage., 230, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2006.03.023, 2006.
Merz, B., Kreibich, H., and Apel, H.: Flood risk analysis: uncertainties and validation, Osterr. Wasser Abfallwirt., 60, 89–94, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00506-008-0001-4, 2008.
Miyamoto, M., Osti, R., and Okazumi, T.: Development of an integrated decision-making method for effective flood early warning system, J. Disaster Res., 9, 55–68, 2014.
Moffett, A. and Sarkar, S.: Incorporating multiple criteria into the design of conservation area networks: A minireview with recommendations, Divers. Distrib., 12, 125–137, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1366-9516.2005.00202.x, 2006.
Mosadeghi, R., Warnken, J., Tomlinson, R., and Mirfenderesk, H.: Uncertainty analysis in the application of multi-criteria decision-making methods in Australian strategic environmental decisions, J. Environ. Plan. Manage., 56, 1097–1124, https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2012.717886, 2013.
Mowrer, H. T.: Uncertainty in natural resource decision support systems: Sources, interpretation, and importance, Comput. Electron. Agric., 27, 139–154, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1699(00)00113-7, 2000.
Penning-Rowsell, E. C., Haigh, N., Lavery, S., and McFadden, L.: A threatened world city: the benefits of protecting London from the sea, Nat. Hazards, 66, 1383–1404, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-0075-3, 2013.
Pickering, C. M. and Byrne, J.: The benefits of publishing systematic quantitative literature reviews for PhD candidates and other early career researchers, High. Educ. Res. Dev., 33, 534–548, https://doi.org/10.1080/07294360.2013.841651, 2014.
Pohekar, S. D. and Ramachandran, M.: Application of multi-criteria decision making to sustainable energy planning – A review, Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev., 8, 365–381, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2003.12.007, 2004.
Porthin, M., Rosqvist, T., Perrels, A., and Molarius, R.: Multi-criteria decision analysis in adaptation decision-making: a flood case study in Finland, Reg. Environ. Change, 13, 1171–1180, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0423-9, 2013.
Qi, H., Qi, P., and Altinakar, M. S.: GIS-based spatial Monte Carlo Analysis for integrated flood management with two dimensional flood simulation, Water Resour. Manage., 27, 3631–3645, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0370-8, 2013.
Radmehr, A. and Araghinejad, S.: Developing strategies for urban flood management of Tehran city using SMCDM and ANN, J. Comput. Civ. Eng., 28, 05014006, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CP.1943-5487.0000360, 2014.
Rahman, M. R. and Saha, S. K.: Flood hazard zonation – A GIS aided multi criteria evaluation (MCE) approach with remotely sensed data, Int. J. Geoinf., 3, 25–37, 2007.
Roy, D. C. and Blaschke, T.: Spatial vulnerability assessment of floods in the coastal regions of Bangladesh, Geomatics, Nat. Hazards Risk, 6, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2013.816785, 2015.
Saaty, T. L.: Fundamentals of the analytic network process - dependence and feedback in decision-making with a single network, J. Syst. Sci. Syst. Eng., 13, 129–157, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11518-006-0158-y, 2004.
Saaty, T. L.: There is no mathematical validity for using fuzzy number crunching in the analytic hierarchy process, J. Syst. Sci. Syst. Eng., 15, 457–464, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11518-006-5021-7, 2006.
Sahin, O., Mohamed, S., Warnken, J., and Rahman, A.: Assessment of sea-level rise adaptation options: Multiple-criteria decision-making approach involving stakeholders, Struct. Surv., 31, 283–300, https://doi.org/10.1108/SS-01-2013-0006, 2013.
Santangelo, N., Santo, A., Di Crescenzo, G., Foscari, G., Liuzza, V., Sciarrotta, S., and Scorpio, V.: Flood susceptibility assessment in a highly urbanized alluvial fan: The case study of Sala Consilina (southern Italy), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2765–2780, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2765-2011, 2011.
Schuwirth, N., Reichert, P., and Lienert, J.: Methodological aspects of multi-criteria decision analysis for policy support: A case study on pharmaceutical removal from hospital wastewater, Eur. J. Oper. Res., 220, 472–483, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2012.01.055, 2012.
Shams, F., Mohamed, S., and Fayek, A. R.: Improving consistency evaluation in fuzzy multi-attribute pairwise comparison-based decision-making methods, Asia-Pacific J. Oper. Res., 31, 1450024, https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217595914500249, 2014.
Shan, S., Wang, L., Li, L., and Chen, Y.: An emergency response decision support system framework for application in e-government, Inf. Technol. Manage., 13, 411–427, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10799-012-0130-0, 2012.
Stewart, T. J.: A critical survey on the status of multiple criteria decision making theory and practice, Omega, 20, 569–586, https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-0483(92)90003-P, 1992.
Taib, C. M. I. C., Yusoff, B., Abdullah, M. L., and Wahab, A. F.: Conflicting bifuzzy multi-attribute group decision making model with application to flood control Project, Gr. Decis. Negot., 25, 157–180, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10726-015-9437-7, 2016.
Tkach, R. J. and Simonovic, S. P.: A new approach to multi-criteria decision making in water resources, J. Geogr. Inf. Decis. Anal., 1, 25–43, https://doi.org/10.2134/jeq2010.0365, 1997.
Triantaphyllou, E.: Multi-criteria decision making methods: a comparative study, Springer US, New York, 289 pp., 2000.
Tzeng, G.-H. and Huang, J.-J.: Multiple attribute decision making: methods and applications, Taylor and Francis Group, Boca Raton, USA, 352 pp., 2011.
Uddin, K., Gurung, D. R., Giriraj, A., and Shrestha, B.: Application of remote sensing and GIS for flood hazard management: a case study from Sindh Province, Pakistan, Am. J. Geogr. Inf. Syst., 2, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.5923/j.ajgis.20130201.01, 2013.
UNISDR: Terminology on disaster risk reduction, UNISDR, Geneva, 30 pp., 2009.
Vafaei, F. and Harati, A. N.: Strategic management in decision support system for coastal flood management, Int. J. Environ. Res., 4, 169–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jconhyd.2010.08.009, 2010.
Vaidya, O. S. and Kumar, S.: Analytic hierarchy process: an overview of applications, Eur. J. Oper. Res., 169, 1–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2004.04.028, 2006.
Voogd, H.: Multicriteria evaluation for urban and regional planning, Pion Ltd., London, 367 pp., 1983.
Wallenius, J., Dyer, J. S., Fishburn, P. C., Steuer, R. E., Zionts, S., and Deb, K.: Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Multiattribute Utility Theory: Recent Accomplishments and What Lies Ahead, Manage. Sci., 54, 1336–1349, https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1070.0838, 2008.
World Bank: Hazards of nature, risks to development: an IEG evaluation of World Bank assistance for natural disasters, Washington, D.C., 236 pp., 2006.
Wu, Y., Zhong, P., Zhang, Y., Xu, B., Ma, B., and Yan, K.: Integrated flood risk assessment and zonation method: a case study in Huaihe River basin, China, Nat. Hazards, 78, 635–651, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1737-3, 2015.
Yan, H. Bin, Huynh, V. N., and Nakamori, Y.: A probabilistic model for linguistic multi-expert decision making involving semantic overlapping, Expert Syst. Appl., 38, 8901–8912, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2011.01.105, 2011.
Yang, X., Zhou, J., Ding, J., Zou, Q., and Zhang, Y.: A fuzzy AHP-TFN based evaluation model of flood risk analysis, J. Comput. Inf. Syst., 8, 9281–9289, 2012.
Yang, X. L., Ding, J. H., and Hou, H.: Application of a triangular fuzzy AHP approach for flood risk evaluation and response measures analysis, Nat. Hazards, 68, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0642-x, 2013.
Yazdandoost, F. and Bozorgy, B.: Flood risk management strategies using multi-criteria analysis, Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. Water Manage., 161, 261–266, https://doi.org/10.1680/wama.2008.161.5.261, 2008.
Zagonari, F. and Rossi, C.: A heterogeneous multi-criteria multi-expert decision-support system for scoring combinations of flood mitigation and recovery options, Environ. Model. Softw., 49, 152–165, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.08.004, 2013.
Zhou, Z., Wang, X., Sun, R., Ao, X., Sun, X., and Song, M.: Study of the comprehensive risk analysis of dam-break flooding based on the numerical simulation of flood routing. Part II: model application and results, Nat. Hazards, 73, 675–700, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-1029-8, 2014.
Zou, Q., Zhou, J., Zhou, C., Song, L., and Guo, J.: Comprehensive flood risk assessment based on set pair analysis-variable fuzzy sets model and fuzzy AHP, Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk A., 27, 525–546, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-012-0598-5, 2013.
This study presents a systematic review of 128 papers that apply multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) tools to flood problems, aiming to provide an overall picture of what has motivated researchers in 37 different countries over the past 2 decades. A wide range of applications were identified, highlighting the utility of MCDM as a decision support tool in all stages of the flood management process.
This study presents a systematic review of 128 papers that apply multi-criteria decision-making...