Considering hazard estimation uncertain in urban resilience strategies

Abstract. Urbanization has led to a higher concentration of both persons and property, which increases the potential degree of damage liable to occur in crisis situations. Urban areas have become increasingly complex socio-technical systems where the inextricable tangle of activities, networks and regions means disruptions propagate rather than disseminate.

In risk anticipation, measures of prevention and anticipation are generally defined by using hazard modelling. The relevance of this approach may be subject to discussion (Zevenbergen et al., 2011) particularly in view of the large number of uncertainties that make hazard evaluation so difficult. For this reason, uncertainty analysis is initially called upon in a theoretical approach before any applied approach. Generally, the uncertainty under study is not assessed in hydrological studies. This uncertainty is related to the choice of evaluation model used for extreme values. This application has been used on the territory of the town of Besançon in eastern France. Strategic orientations for regional resilience are presented taking into account the high levels of uncertainty concerning estimates for possible flow rates.