Articles | Volume 15, issue 7
Research article
29 Jul 2015
Research article |  | 29 Jul 2015

Landslide early warning based on failure forecast models: the example of the Mt. de La Saxe rockslide, northern Italy

A. Manconi and D. Giordan

Abstract. We apply failure forecast models by exploiting near-real-time monitoring data for the La Saxe rockslide, a large unstable slope threatening Aosta Valley in northern Italy. Starting from the inverse velocity theory, we analyze landslide surface displacements automatically and in near real time on different temporal windows and apply straightforward statistical methods to obtain confidence intervals on the estimated time of failure. Here, we present the result obtained for the La Saxe rockslide, a large unstable slope located in Aosta Valley, northern Italy. Based on this case study, we identify operational thresholds that are established on the reliability of the forecast models. Our approach is aimed at supporting the management of early warning systems in the most critical phases of the landslide emergency.

Final-revised paper