Articles | Volume 14, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2681-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2681-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Oct 2014
Research article |
| 06 Oct 2014
Evaluating data quality collected by volunteers for first-level inspection of hydraulic structures in mountain catchments
V. J. Cortes Arevalo
Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Italian National Research Council, Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection, CNR-IRPI, Padova, Italy
M. Charrière
Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Italian National Research Council, Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection, CNR-IRPI, Padova, Italy
S. Frigerio
Italian National Research Council, Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection, CNR-IRPI, Padova, Italy
L. Schenato
Italian National Research Council, Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection, CNR-IRPI, Padova, Italy
T. Bogaard
Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
C. Bianchizza
Institute of International Sociology Gorizia, ISIG, Gorizia, Italy
A. Pasuto
Italian National Research Council, Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection, CNR-IRPI, Padova, Italy
S. Sterlacchini
Italian National Research Council, Institute for the Dynamic of Environmental Processes, CNR-IDPA, Milan, Italy
Related authors
Maurizio Mazzoleni, Vivian Juliette Cortes Arevalo, Uta Wehn, Leonardo Alfonso, Daniele Norbiato, Martina Monego, Michele Ferri, and Dimitri P. Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 391–416, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-391-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-391-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the usefulness of assimilating crowdsourced observations from a heterogeneous network of sensors for different scenarios of citizen involvement levels during the flood event occurred in the Bacchiglione catchment in May 2013. We achieve high model performance by integrating crowdsourced data, in particular from citizens motivated by their feeling of belonging to a community. Satisfactory model performance can still be obtained even for decreasing citizen involvement over time.
K. Prenger-Berninghoff, V. J. Cortes, T. Sprague, Z. C. Aye, S. Greiving, W. Głowacki, and S. Sterlacchini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 3261–3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3261-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3261-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Adaptation to unforeseen, hazardous events requires the implementation of purposeful risk reduction strategies that aim at both taking effective measures and using funds most efficiently. Coordination of long-term and short-term risk management strategies is considered crucial. This research discusses current problems and indicates benefits to establishing or strengthening the link between spatial planning (long-term perspective) and emergency management authorities (short-term perspective).
Lauro Chiaraluce, Richard Bennett, David Mencin, Wade Johnson, Massimiliano Rinaldo Barchi, Marco Bohnhoff, Paola Baccheschi, Antonio Caracausi, Carlo Calamita, Adriano Cavaliere, Adriano Gualandi, Eugenio Mandler, Maria Teresa Mariucci, Leonardo Martelli, Simone Marzorati, Paola Montone, Debora Pantaleo, Stefano Pucci, Enrico Serpelloni, Mariano Supino, Salvatore Stramondo, Catherine Hanagan, Liz Van Boskirk, Mike Gottlieb, Glen Mattioli, Marco Urbani, Francesco Mirabella, Assel Akimbekova, Simona Pierdominici, Thomas Wiersberg, Chris Marone, Luca Palmieri, and Luca Schenato
Sci. Dril., 33, 173–190, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-33-173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-33-173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We built six observatory stations in central Italy to monitor a fault potentially capable of generating a strong earthquake. Each site has 80–160 m deep wells equipped with strainmeters and seismometers. At the surface, we placed GNSS antennas and seismic and meteorological sensors. All data, which are open access for the scientific community, will help us to better understand the complex physical and chemical processes that lead to the generation of the full range of slow and fast earthquakes.
Benjamin B. Mirus, Thom A. Bogaard, Roberto Greco, and Manfred Stähli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1219, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1219, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning of increased landslide potential provides situational awareness to reduce landslide-related losses from major storm events. For decades, landslide forecasts relied on rainfall data alone, but recent research points to the value of hydrologic information for improving predictions. In this article, we provide our perspectives on the value and limitations of integrating subsurface hillslope hydrologic monitoring data and mathematical modeling for more accurate landslide forecasts.
Adriaan L. van Natijne, Thom A. Bogaard, Thomas Zieher, Jan Pfeiffer, and Roderik C. Lindenbergh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3723–3745, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3723-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3723-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are one of the major weather-related geohazards. To assess their potential impact and design mitigation solutions, a detailed understanding of the slope is required. We tested if the use of machine learning, combined with satellite remote sensing data, would allow us to forecast deformation. Our results on the Vögelsberg landslide, a deep-seated landslide near Innsbruck, Austria, show that the formulation of such a machine learning system is not as straightforward as often hoped for.
Yi Luo, Jiaming Zhang, Zhi Zhou, Juan P. Aguilar-Lopez, Roberto Greco, and Thom Bogaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 783–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-783-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-783-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes an experiment and modeling of the hydrological response of desiccation cracks under long-term wetting–drying cycles. We developed a new dynamic dual-permeability model to quantify the dynamic evolution of desiccation cracks and associated preferential flow and moisture distribution. Compared to other models, the dynamic dual-permeability model could describe the experimental data much better, but it also provided an improved description of the underlying physics.
Judith Uwihirwe, Alessia Riveros, Hellen Wanjala, Jaap Schellekens, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom A. Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3641–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study compared gauge-based and satellite-based precipitation products. Similarly, satellite- and hydrological model-derived soil moisture was compared to in situ soil moisture and used in landslide hazard assessment and warning. The results reveal the cumulative 3 d rainfall from the NASA-GPM to be the most effective landslide trigger. The modelled antecedent soil moisture in the root zone was the most informative hydrological variable for landslide hazard assessment and warning in Rwanda.
Jan Pfeiffer, Thomas Zieher, Jan Schmieder, Thom Bogaard, Martin Rutzinger, and Christoph Spötl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2219–2237, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2219-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2219-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The activity of slow-moving deep-seated landslides is commonly governed by pore pressure variations within the shear zone. Groundwater recharge as a consequence of precipitation therefore is a process regulating the activity of landslides. In this context, we present a highly automated geo-statistical approach to spatially assess groundwater recharge controlling the velocity of a deep-seated landslide in Tyrol, Austria.
Judith Uwihirwe, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1723–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This research tested the value of regional groundwater level information to improve landslide predictions with empirical models based on the concept of threshold levels. In contrast to precipitation-based thresholds, the results indicated that relying on threshold models exclusively defined using hydrological variables such as groundwater levels can lead to improved landslide predictions due to their implicit consideration of long-term antecedent conditions until the day of landslide occurrence.
Punpim Puttaraksa Mapiam, Monton Methaprayun, Thom Bogaard, Gerrit Schoups, and Marie-Claire Ten Veldhuis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 775–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-775-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The density of rain gauge networks plays an important role in radar rainfall bias correction. In this work, we aimed to assess the extent to which daily rainfall observations from a dense network of citizen scientists improve the accuracy of hourly radar rainfall estimates in the Tubma Basin, Thailand. Results show that citizen rain gauges significantly enhance the performance of radar rainfall bias adjustment up to a range of about 40 km from the center of the citizen rain gauge network.
Rolf Hut, Thanda Thatoe Nwe Win, and Thom Bogaard
Geosci. Instrum. Method. Data Syst., 9, 435–442, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-9-435-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gi-9-435-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
GPS drifters that float down rivers are important tools in studying rivers, but they can be expensive. Recently, both GPS receivers and cellular modems have become available at lower prices to tinkering scientists due to the rise of open hardware and the Arduino. We provide detailed instructions on how to build a low-power GPS drifter with local storage and a cellular model that we tested in a fieldwork in Myanmar. These instructions allow fellow geoscientists to recreate the device.
Giuseppe Esposito, Ivan Marchesini, Alessandro Cesare Mondini, Paola Reichenbach, Mauro Rossi, and Simone Sterlacchini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2379–2395, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2379-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2379-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this article, we present an automatic processing chain aimed to support the detection of landslides that induce sharp land cover changes. The chain exploits free software and spaceborne SAR data, allowing the systematic monitoring of wide mountainous regions exposed to mass movements. In the test site, we verified a general accordance between the spatial distribution of seismically induced landslides and the detected land cover changes, demonstrating its potential use in emergency management.
César Dionisio Jiménez-Rodríguez, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Thom Bogaard, Erika Vatiero, and Hubert Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-344, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-344, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the isotopic composition of water vapor in the air is a difficult task. The estimation of δ18O and δ2H has to be done carefully, because it is accompanied by a high risk of methodological errors (if it is sampled) or wrong assumptions that can lead to incorrect values (if it is modeled). The aim of this work was to compare available sampling methods for water vapor in the air and estimate their isotopic composition, comparing the results against direct measurements of the sampled air.
César~Dionisio Jiménez-Rodríguez, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Thom Bogaard, Erika Vatiero, and Hubert Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-538, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
The measurement of stable isotopes in water vapor has been improved with the use of laser technologies. Its direct application in the field depends on the availability of infrastructure or the budget of the project. For those cases when it is not possible, we provide an alternative method to sample the air for its later measurement. This method is based on the use of a low-cost polyethylene bag, getting stable measurements with a volume of 450 mL of air reducing the risk of sample deterioration.
Petra Hulsman, Thom A. Bogaard, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5081–5095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5081-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5081-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In many river basins, the development of hydrological models is challenged by poor discharge data availability and quality. In contrast, water level data are more reliable, as these are direct measurements and are unprocessed. In this study, an alternative calibration method is presented using water-level time series and the Strickler–Manning formula instead of discharge. This is applied to a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model for the semi-arid, poorly gauged Mara River basin in Kenya.
David J. Peres, Antonino Cancelliere, Roberto Greco, and Thom A. Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 633–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-633-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-633-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the influence of imprecise identification of triggering instants on landslide early warning thresholds by perturbing an error-free synthetic dataset. Combined impacts of uncertainty with respect to temporal discretization of data and criteria for singling out rainfall events are assessed as well. Results show that thresholds can be significantly affected by these uncertainty sources.
Maurizio Mazzoleni, Vivian Juliette Cortes Arevalo, Uta Wehn, Leonardo Alfonso, Daniele Norbiato, Martina Monego, Michele Ferri, and Dimitri P. Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 391–416, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-391-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-391-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the usefulness of assimilating crowdsourced observations from a heterogeneous network of sensors for different scenarios of citizen involvement levels during the flood event occurred in the Bacchiglione catchment in May 2013. We achieve high model performance by integrating crowdsourced data, in particular from citizens motivated by their feeling of belonging to a community. Satisfactory model performance can still be obtained even for decreasing citizen involvement over time.
Thom Bogaard and Roberto Greco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 31–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-31-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-31-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The vast majority of shallow landslides and debris flows are precipitation initiated and predicted using historical landslides plotted versus observed precipitation information. However, this approach has severe limitations. This is partly due to the fact that it is not precipitation that initiates a landslide or debris flow but rather the hydrological dynamics in the soil and slope. We propose to include hydrological information in the regional hydro-meteorological hazard assessment.
Marie K. M. Charrière and Thom A. Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1175–1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1175-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1175-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper present the results of interviews that were conducted with the developers of apps dedicated to avalanche risk communication. The study investigates the context of their development to determine how choices of content and visualization were made as well as how their effectiveness is evaluated. Results show that consensus is achieved in terms of message but not in terms of visualization. However, progress remains in terms of effectiveness evaluation.
Z. C. Aye, M. Jaboyedoff, M. H. Derron, C. J. van Westen, H. Y. Hussin, R. L. Ciurean, S. Frigerio, and A. Pasuto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 85–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-85-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-85-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and application of a prototype web-GIS tool for risk analysis, in particular for floods and landslides, based on open-source software and web technologies. The aim is to assist experts (risk managers) in analysing the impacts and consequences of a certain hazard event in a considered region, contributing to open-source and research community in natural hazards and risk assessment. The tool is demonstrated using a regional data set of Fella River basin, Italy.
W. Shao, T. A. Bogaard, M. Bakker, and R. Greco
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2197–2212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2197-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of preferential flow on the stability of landslides is studied through numerical simulation of two types of rainfall events on a hypothetical hillslope. A model is developed that consists of two parts. The first part is a model for combined saturated/unsaturated subsurface flow and is used to compute the spatial and temporal water pressure response to rainfall. Preferential flow is simulated with a dual-permeability continuum model consisting of a matrix/preferential flow domain.
G. Bossi, M. Cavalli, S. Crema, S. Frigerio, B. Quan Luna, M. Mantovani, G. Marcato, L. Schenato, and A. Pasuto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 715–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-715-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-715-2015, 2015
K. Prenger-Berninghoff, V. J. Cortes, T. Sprague, Z. C. Aye, S. Greiving, W. Głowacki, and S. Sterlacchini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 3261–3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3261-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3261-2014, 2014
Short summary
Short summary
Adaptation to unforeseen, hazardous events requires the implementation of purposeful risk reduction strategies that aim at both taking effective measures and using funds most efficiently. Coordination of long-term and short-term risk management strategies is considered crucial. This research discusses current problems and indicates benefits to establishing or strengthening the link between spatial planning (long-term perspective) and emergency management authorities (short-term perspective).
D. M. Krzeminska, T. A. Bogaard, T.-H. Debieche, F. Cervi, V. Marc, and J.-P. Malet
Earth Surf. Dynam., 2, 181–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-181-2014, 2014
U. Ehret, H. V. Gupta, M. Sivapalan, S. V. Weijs, S. J. Schymanski, G. Blöschl, A. N. Gelfan, C. Harman, A. Kleidon, T. A. Bogaard, D. Wang, T. Wagener, U. Scherer, E. Zehe, M. F. P. Bierkens, G. Di Baldassarre, J. Parajka, L. P. H. van Beek, A. van Griensven, M. C. Westhoff, and H. C. Winsemius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 649–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, 2014
J. E. van der Spek, T. A. Bogaard, and M. Bakker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2171–2183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2171-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2171-2013, 2013
D. M. Krzeminska, T. A. Bogaard, J.-P. Malet, and L. P. H. van Beek
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 947–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-947-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-947-2013, 2013
M. Hrachowitz, H. Savenije, T. A. Bogaard, D. Tetzlaff, and C. Soulsby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 533–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-533-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-533-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Dynamic response of pile–slab retaining wall structure under rockfall impact
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Using a convection-permitting climate model to predict wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree River basin, Germany
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Ready, set, go! An anticipatory action system against droughts
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
A Guide of Indicators Creation for Critical Infrastructures Resilience. Based on a Multi-criteria Framework Focusing on Optimisation Actions for Road Transport System
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
The role of response efficacy and self-efficacy in disaster preparedness actions for vulnerable households
Scientists as storytellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Back analysis of a building collapse under snow and rain loads in a Mediterranean area
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific-technical capabilities and local realities: a novel modular approach for multi-risk assessment
Assessment of building damage and risk under extreme flood scenarios in Shanghai
Mangrove ecosystem properties regulate high water levels in a river delta
Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Criteria-based visualization design for hazard maps
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-114, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investors, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows to identify the critical points where single value estimates may underestimate the risk, and the areas of vulnerability to prioritize risk reduction efforts.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-82, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history, means the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry is scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study, to determine the suitability of current, published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset-hazard taxonomy is proposed, to guide future, quantitative research.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Alex Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander Logan Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1374, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces a new method using hypergraph theory to assess risks from interconnected natural hazards. Traditional models often overlook how these hazards can interact and worsen each other's effects. By applying our method to the 2015 Nepal earthquake, we successfully demonstrated its ability to predict broad damage patterns, despite slightly overestimating impacts. Being able to anticipate the effects of complex, interconnected hazards is critical for disaster preparedness.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-758, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances will increase in the future endangering our forests and their provision of wood, protection against natural hazards and carbon sequestration. Considering the hazard to forests by wind or fire damage together with vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize high-risk forest stands. In this study we propose a new methodological approach helping with decision-making process for climate-smart forest management.
Laura Teresa Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-941, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-941, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based both on temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated to grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change affects wine production in the future.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-59, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in water management, spatial and landscape planning in the Spree River basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this planning gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures and the adaptation of best practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Bonifácio
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-538, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The "Ready, Set & Go!" system, developed by the World Food Programme and partners, employs seasonal forecasts to tackle droughts in Mozambique. With the Maputo Declaration, efforts to expand early warning systems are aligning with global initiatives for universal protection by 2027. Through advanced forecasting and anticipatory action, it could cover 76 % of districts against severe droughts, reaching 87 % national coverage for the first months of the rainy season.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-204, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Operationalision of “resilience” will be a major milestone contributing to hazard management for Critical infrastructures (CIs). To integrate resilience assessment into operational management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables users to create specific indicators to suit their particular situation. The assessment results can assist CIs managers in their decision-making as it is based on a multi-criteria framework that considers the various interests of stakeholders.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
SLR will lead to more frequent flooding, and salt intrusion in coastal areas will be a major concern for farming households that are highly dependent on the soil quality for their livelihoods. In this study, we simulated the risk of SLR and flooding to coastal farmers by assessing salt intrusion risk and flood damage to buildings.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Maria-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-225, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-225, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes is shared by four countries and groups 59 volcanoes. We identified the ones with the most intense and frequent eruptions (e.g., El Misti and Ubinas), the cities with the highest density of elements at risk (e.g., Arequipa and Mequegua), and the volcanoes with the highest potential impact (e.g., Cerro Blanco and Yucamane). Our study contributes into the prioritization of risk reduction resources, which is crucial for surrounding communities.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-142, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction on the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-hazard risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructures to increase their capabilities.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, and Zacharias Fasoulakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-137, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses which can impact population and assets of different types. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess the feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed to facilitate a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Cited articles
ADBVE (Autorità di bacino dei fiumi dell'Alto Adriatico): Progetto di Piano Stralcio per l'Assetto Idrogeologico del bacino idrogeografico del fiume Fella, PAI–FELLA, available at: http://pai.adbve.it/PAI_Fella/index_fella.html, last access: 7 July 2014, 2012 (in Italian).
Bjorkland, R., Pringle, C., and Newton, B.: A Stream Visual Assessment Protocol (SVAP) for Riparian landowners, Environ. Monit. Assess., 68, 99–125, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010743124570, 2001.
Bonney, R., Cooper, C. B., Dickinson, J. L., Kelling, S., Phillips, T., Rosenberg, K. V., and Shirk, J.: Citizen science: a developing tool for expanding science knowledge and scientific literacy, BioScience, 59, 977–984, https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2009.59.11.9, 2009.
Bordogna, G., Carrara, P., Criscuolo, L., Pepe, M., and Rampini, A.: A linguistic decision making approach to assess the quality of volunteer geographic information for citizen science, Information Sciences, 258, 312–327, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2013.07.013, 2014.
Borga, M., Boscolo, P., Zanon, F., and Sangati, M.: Hydrometeorological Analysis of the 29 August 2003 Flash Flood in the Eastern Italian Alps, J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 1049–1067, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM593.1, 2007.
Brandon, A., Spyreas, G., Molano-Flores, B., Caroll, C., and Ellis, J.: Can volunteers provide reliable data for forest vegetation surveys?, National Areas Journal, 23, 254–262, 2003.
Burke Engineering, C. B.: Indiana Drainage Handbook, an Administrative and Technical Guide for Activities within Indiana Streams, CBBEL, Indianapolis, Indiana, available at: http://www.in.gov/dnr/water/files/allhbook.pdf, last access: 4 July 2013, 1999.
Calligaris, C. and Zini, L.: Debris Flow Phenomena: A Short Overview?, in: Earth Sciences, edited by: Imran Ahmad Dar, InTech, ISBN: 978-953-307-861-8, https://doi.org/10.5772/29786, 2012.
Cifelli, R., Doesken, N., Kennedy, P., Carey, L. D., Rutledge, S. A., Gimmestad, C., and Depue, T.: The Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network: informal education for scientists and citizens, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86, 1069–1077, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-8-1069, 2005.
Conrad, C. and Hilchey, K.: A review of citizen science and community-based environmental monitoring: issues and opportunities, Environ. Monit. Assess., 176, 273–291, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-010-1582-5, 2011.
Couvet, D., Jiguet, F., Julliard, R., Levrel, H., and Teyssedre, A.: Enhancing citizen contributions to biodiversity science and public policy, Interdiscipl. Sci. Rev., 33, 95–103, https://doi.org/10.1179/030801808X260031, 2008.
Crall, A. W., Newman, G. J., Jarnevich, C. S., Stohlgren, T. J., Waller, D. M., and Graham, J.: Improving and integrating data on invasive species collected by citizen scientists, Biol. Invasions, 12, 3419–3428, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-010-9740-9, 2010.
Danielsen, F., Burgess, N. D., and Balmford, A.: Monitoring matters: examining the potential of locally-based approaches, Biodivers. Conserv., 14, 2507–2542, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-005-8375-0, 2005.
de Jong, C.: Linking ICT and society in early warning and adaptation to hydrological extremes in mountains, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2253–2270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2253-2013, 2013.
Devictor, V., Whittaker, R. J., and Beltrame, C.: Beyond scarcity: citizen science programmes as useful tools for conservation biogeography, Divers. Distrib., 16, 354–362, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2009.00615.x, 2010.
Dirksen, J., Clemens, F. H. L. R., Korving, H., Cherqui, F., Le Gauffre, P., Ertl, T., Plihal, H., Müller, K., and Snaterse, C. T. M.: The consistency of visual sewer inspection data, Struct. Infrastruct. E., 9, 214–228, https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2010.541265, 2013.
Enders, J.: Measuring community awareness and preparedness for emergencies, Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 16, 52–58, 2001.
Engel, S. R. and Voshell Jr., J. R.: Volunteer biological monitoring: can it accurately assess the ecological condition of streams?, American Entomologist, 48, 164–177, 2002.
EPA: Volunteer Stream Monitoring: A Methods Manual, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, available at: http://water.epa.gov/type/rsl/monitoring/upload/2002_08_13_volunteer_stream_stream.pdf, last access: 9 February 2014, 1997.
European Commission: Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2007 on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks, available at: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32007L0060, last access: 9 February 2014, 2007.
European Commission: Civil Protection – Community Co-operation in the Field of Civil Protection, Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection, available at: http://ec.europa.eu/echo/files/civil_protection/vademecum/menu/3.html, last access: 9 February 2014, 2012.
Flanagin, A. J. and Metzger, M. J.: The credibility of volunteered geographic information, GeoJournal, 72, 137–148, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-008-9188-y, 2008.
Fore, L. S., Paulsen, K., and O'Laughlin, K.: Assessing the performance of volunteers in monitoring streams, Freshwater Biol., 46, 109–123, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2001.00640.x, 2001.
Galloway, A. W. E., Tudor, M. T., and Haegen, W. M. V.: The reliability of citizen science: a case study of Oregon White Oak stand surveys, Wildlife Soc. B., 34, 1425–1429, https://doi.org/10.2193/0091-7648(2006)34[1425:TROCSA]2.0.CO;2, 2006.
Gollan, J., Bruyn, L. L., Reid, N., and Wilkie, L.: Can volunteers collect data that are comparable to professional scientists?, a study of variables used in monitoring the outcomes of ecosystem rehabilitation, Environ. Manage., 50, 969–978, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-012-9924-4, 2012.
Gommerman, L. and Monroe, M. C.: Lessons Learned from Evaluations of Citizen Science Programs, School of Forest Resources and Conservation, Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences (IFAS), University of Florida, (FOR291), available at: http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/fr359, last access: 9 February 2014, 2012.
Goodchild, M. F.: Citizens as sensors: the world of volunteered geography, GeoJournal, 69, 211–221, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-007-9111-y, 2007.
Goodchild, M. F. and Li, L.: Assuring the quality of volunteered geographic information, Spatial Statistics, 1, 110–120, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spasta.2012.03.002, 2012.
Gouveia, C. and Fonseca, A.: New approaches to environmental monitoring: the use of ICT to explore volunteered geographic information, GeoJournal, 72, 185–197, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-008-9183-3, 2008.
Gouveia, C., Fonseca, A., Câmara, A., and Ferreira, F.: Promoting the use of environmental data collected by concerned citizens through information and communication technologies, J. Environ. Manage., 71, 135–154, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2004.01.009, 2004.
Holub, M. and Fuchs, S.: Mitigating mountain hazards in Austria – legislation, risk transfer, and awareness building, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 523–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-523-2009, 2009.
Holub, M. and Hübl, J.: Local protection against mountain hazards – state of the art and future needs, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 81–99, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-8-81-2008, 2008.
Hudson-Smith, A., Batty, M., Crooks, A., and Milton, R.: Mapping for the masses: accessing Web 2.0 through crowdsourcing, in: Working Paper Series – University College of London for Advanced Spatial Analysis, Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis University College London, London, UK, available at: http://eprints.ucl.ac.uk/15198/1/15198.pdf, last access: 9 February 2014, Paper 143, 1–18, 2008.
Jakob, M. and Hungr, O.: Debris Flow Phenomena, Praxis, Berlin, 2005.
Jordan, R. C., Brooks, W. R., Howe, D. V., and Ehrenfeld, J. G.: Evaluating the performance of volunteers in mapping invasive plants in public conservation lands, Environ. Manage., 49, 425–434, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-011-9789-y, 2011.
Mazzorana, B., Hübl, J., Zischg, A., and Largiader, A.: Modelling woody material transport and deposition in alpine rivers, Nat. Hazards, 56, 425–449, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9492-y, 2010.
Molinari, D., Menoni, S., Aronica, G. T., Ballio, F., Berni, N., Pandolfo, C., Stelluti, M., and Minucci, G.: Ex post damage assessment: an Italian experience, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 901–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-901-2014, 2014.
Najafi, M. and Bhattachar, D. V.: Development of a culvert inventory and inspection framework for asset management of road structures, Journal of King Saud University - Science, 23, 243–254, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jksus.2010.11.001, 2011.
Newman, G., Zimmerman, D., Crall, A., Laituri, M., Graham, J., and Stapel, L.: User-friendly web mapping: lessons from a citizen science website, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci., 24, 1851–1869, https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2010.490532, 2010.
Newman, G., Wiggins, A., Crall, A., Graham, E., Newman, S., and Crowston, K.: The future of citizen science: emerging technologies and shifting paradigms, Front. Ecol. Environ., 10, 298–304, https://doi.org/10.1890/110294, 2012.
Nicholson, E., Ryan, J., and Hodgkins, D.: Community data-where does the value lie? Assessing confidence limits of community collected water quality data, Water Sci. Technol., 45, 193–200, 2002.
Ohio Department of Transportation: Manual of Bridge Inspection, Ohio Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Ohio, 2010.
Province of British Columbia: Flood Protection Works Inspection Guide, Water Management Branch, Public Safety Section, British Columbia, Canada, 2000.
Provinzia Autonoma di Bolzano – Alto Adige: Bestandsaufnahme von Wasserbauwerken der Wildbachverbauung, EF 30 – EF30 Sperrenevaluierung Quick Version, 2006 (in German).
Protezione Civile della Regione FVG: Formazione, Campus Virtuale, available at: http://www.protezionecivile.fvg.it/ProtCiv/default.aspx/81-formazione.htm, last access: 7 July 2014, 2009.
Remaître, A., Malet, J.-P., and Maquaire, O.: Morphology and sedimentology of a complex debris flow in a clay-shale basin, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 30, 339–348, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.1161, 2005.
Riesch, H. and Potter, C.: Citizen science as seen by scientists: methodological, epistemological and ethical dimensions, Public Underst. Sci., 23, 107–120, https://doi.org/10.1177/0963662513497324, 2014.
Rinderer, M., Kollegger, A., Fischer, B. M. C., Stähli, M., and Seibert, J.: Sensing with boots and trousers – qualitative field observations of shallow soil moisture patterns, Hydrol. Process., 26, 4112–4120, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9531, 2012.
Savan, B., Morgan, A. J., and Gore, C.: Volunteer environmental monitoring and the role of the universities: the case of citizens' environment watch, Environ. Manage., 31, 561–568, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-002-2897-y, 2003.
Seeger, C. J.: The role of facilitated volunteered geographic information in the landscape planning and site design process, GeoJournal, 72, 199–213, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-008-9184-2, 2008.
Servizio Forestale FVG: Catasto Opere Iidraulico Forestali, Manuale Tecnico, Allegato A. Schede di Rilevo, 2002.
Snäll, T., Kindvall, O., Nilsson, J., and Pärt, T.: Evaluating citizen-based presence data for bird monitoring, Biol. Conserv., 144, 804–810, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2010.11.010, 2011.
Tweddle, J., Robinson, L., Pocock, M., and Roy, H.: Guide to Citizen Science: Developing, Implementing and Evaluating Citizen Science to Study Biodiversity and the Environment in the UK, Natural History Museum, London, 2012.
United Nations: Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters, Kobe, Japan, 18–22, available at: http://www.unisdr.org/2005/wcdr/intergover/official-doc/L-docs/Hyogo-framework-for-action-english.pdf, last access: 9 February 2014, 2005.
Uzielli, M., Nadim, F., Lacasse, S., and Kaynia, A. M.: A conceptual framework for quantitative estimation of physical vulnerability to landslides, Eng. Geol., 102, 251–256, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2008.03.011, 2008.
von Maravic, P.: Evaluation of the Physical Vulnerability of Check Dams Exposed to the Impact of Torrential Processes Through Experimental Analysis, Msc. thesis, University of Padua, Faculty of Agriculture, Departments of Land and Agro-forestry Systems, 2010.
Yetman, K. T.: Using Maryland's stream corrido survey to prioritize watershed restoration efforts, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 38, 905–914, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2002.tb05533.x, 2002.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint