Articles | Volume 14, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2681-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2681-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Oct 2014
Research article |
| 06 Oct 2014
Evaluating data quality collected by volunteers for first-level inspection of hydraulic structures in mountain catchments
V. J. Cortes Arevalo
Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Italian National Research Council, Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection, CNR-IRPI, Padova, Italy
M. Charrière
Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Italian National Research Council, Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection, CNR-IRPI, Padova, Italy
S. Frigerio
Italian National Research Council, Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection, CNR-IRPI, Padova, Italy
L. Schenato
Italian National Research Council, Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection, CNR-IRPI, Padova, Italy
T. Bogaard
Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
C. Bianchizza
Institute of International Sociology Gorizia, ISIG, Gorizia, Italy
A. Pasuto
Italian National Research Council, Institute for Geo-hydrological Protection, CNR-IRPI, Padova, Italy
S. Sterlacchini
Italian National Research Council, Institute for the Dynamic of Environmental Processes, CNR-IDPA, Milan, Italy
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We investigate the usefulness of assimilating crowdsourced observations from a heterogeneous network of sensors for different scenarios of citizen involvement levels during the flood event occurred in the Bacchiglione catchment in May 2013. We achieve high model performance by integrating crowdsourced data, in particular from citizens motivated by their feeling of belonging to a community. Satisfactory model performance can still be obtained even for decreasing citizen involvement over time.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3723–3745, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3723-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3723-2023, 2023
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Landslides are one of the major weather-related geohazards. To assess their potential impact and design mitigation solutions, a detailed understanding of the slope is required. We tested if the use of machine learning, combined with satellite remote sensing data, would allow us to forecast deformation. Our results on the Vögelsberg landslide, a deep-seated landslide near Innsbruck, Austria, show that the formulation of such a machine learning system is not as straightforward as often hoped for.
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3641–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, 2022
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This study compared gauge-based and satellite-based precipitation products. Similarly, satellite- and hydrological model-derived soil moisture was compared to in situ soil moisture and used in landslide hazard assessment and warning. The results reveal the cumulative 3 d rainfall from the NASA-GPM to be the most effective landslide trigger. The modelled antecedent soil moisture in the root zone was the most informative hydrological variable for landslide hazard assessment and warning in Rwanda.
Jan Pfeiffer, Thomas Zieher, Jan Schmieder, Thom Bogaard, Martin Rutzinger, and Christoph Spötl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2219–2237, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2219-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2219-2022, 2022
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The activity of slow-moving deep-seated landslides is commonly governed by pore pressure variations within the shear zone. Groundwater recharge as a consequence of precipitation therefore is a process regulating the activity of landslides. In this context, we present a highly automated geo-statistical approach to spatially assess groundwater recharge controlling the velocity of a deep-seated landslide in Tyrol, Austria.
Judith Uwihirwe, Markus Hrachowitz, and Thom Bogaard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1723–1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1723-2022, 2022
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This research tested the value of regional groundwater level information to improve landslide predictions with empirical models based on the concept of threshold levels. In contrast to precipitation-based thresholds, the results indicated that relying on threshold models exclusively defined using hydrological variables such as groundwater levels can lead to improved landslide predictions due to their implicit consideration of long-term antecedent conditions until the day of landslide occurrence.
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 775–794, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-775-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-775-2022, 2022
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The density of rain gauge networks plays an important role in radar rainfall bias correction. In this work, we aimed to assess the extent to which daily rainfall observations from a dense network of citizen scientists improve the accuracy of hourly radar rainfall estimates in the Tubma Basin, Thailand. Results show that citizen rain gauges significantly enhance the performance of radar rainfall bias adjustment up to a range of about 40 km from the center of the citizen rain gauge network.
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GPS drifters that float down rivers are important tools in studying rivers, but they can be expensive. Recently, both GPS receivers and cellular modems have become available at lower prices to tinkering scientists due to the rise of open hardware and the Arduino. We provide detailed instructions on how to build a low-power GPS drifter with local storage and a cellular model that we tested in a fieldwork in Myanmar. These instructions allow fellow geoscientists to recreate the device.
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-344, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-344, 2019
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Knowing the isotopic composition of water vapor in the air is a difficult task. The estimation of δ18O and δ2H has to be done carefully, because it is accompanied by a high risk of methodological errors (if it is sampled) or wrong assumptions that can lead to incorrect values (if it is modeled). The aim of this work was to compare available sampling methods for water vapor in the air and estimate their isotopic composition, comparing the results against direct measurements of the sampled air.
César~Dionisio Jiménez-Rodríguez, Miriam Coenders-Gerrits, Thom Bogaard, Erika Vatiero, and Hubert Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-538, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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The measurement of stable isotopes in water vapor has been improved with the use of laser technologies. Its direct application in the field depends on the availability of infrastructure or the budget of the project. For those cases when it is not possible, we provide an alternative method to sample the air for its later measurement. This method is based on the use of a low-cost polyethylene bag, getting stable measurements with a volume of 450 mL of air reducing the risk of sample deterioration.
Petra Hulsman, Thom A. Bogaard, and Hubert H. G. Savenije
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5081–5095, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5081-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5081-2018, 2018
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In many river basins, the development of hydrological models is challenged by poor discharge data availability and quality. In contrast, water level data are more reliable, as these are direct measurements and are unprocessed. In this study, an alternative calibration method is presented using water-level time series and the Strickler–Manning formula instead of discharge. This is applied to a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model for the semi-arid, poorly gauged Mara River basin in Kenya.
David J. Peres, Antonino Cancelliere, Roberto Greco, and Thom A. Bogaard
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We investigate the influence of imprecise identification of triggering instants on landslide early warning thresholds by perturbing an error-free synthetic dataset. Combined impacts of uncertainty with respect to temporal discretization of data and criteria for singling out rainfall events are assessed as well. Results show that thresholds can be significantly affected by these uncertainty sources.
Maurizio Mazzoleni, Vivian Juliette Cortes Arevalo, Uta Wehn, Leonardo Alfonso, Daniele Norbiato, Martina Monego, Michele Ferri, and Dimitri P. Solomatine
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 391–416, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-391-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-391-2018, 2018
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Thom Bogaard and Roberto Greco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 31–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-31-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-31-2018, 2018
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The vast majority of shallow landslides and debris flows are precipitation initiated and predicted using historical landslides plotted versus observed precipitation information. However, this approach has severe limitations. This is partly due to the fact that it is not precipitation that initiates a landslide or debris flow but rather the hydrological dynamics in the soil and slope. We propose to include hydrological information in the regional hydro-meteorological hazard assessment.
Marie K. M. Charrière and Thom A. Bogaard
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This paper present the results of interviews that were conducted with the developers of apps dedicated to avalanche risk communication. The study investigates the context of their development to determine how choices of content and visualization were made as well as how their effectiveness is evaluated. Results show that consensus is achieved in terms of message but not in terms of visualization. However, progress remains in terms of effectiveness evaluation.
Z. C. Aye, M. Jaboyedoff, M. H. Derron, C. J. van Westen, H. Y. Hussin, R. L. Ciurean, S. Frigerio, and A. Pasuto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 85–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-85-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-85-2016, 2016
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This paper presents the development and application of a prototype web-GIS tool for risk analysis, in particular for floods and landslides, based on open-source software and web technologies. The aim is to assist experts (risk managers) in analysing the impacts and consequences of a certain hazard event in a considered region, contributing to open-source and research community in natural hazards and risk assessment. The tool is demonstrated using a regional data set of Fella River basin, Italy.
W. Shao, T. A. Bogaard, M. Bakker, and R. Greco
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2197–2212, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2197-2015, 2015
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The effect of preferential flow on the stability of landslides is studied through numerical simulation of two types of rainfall events on a hypothetical hillslope. A model is developed that consists of two parts. The first part is a model for combined saturated/unsaturated subsurface flow and is used to compute the spatial and temporal water pressure response to rainfall. Preferential flow is simulated with a dual-permeability continuum model consisting of a matrix/preferential flow domain.
G. Bossi, M. Cavalli, S. Crema, S. Frigerio, B. Quan Luna, M. Mantovani, G. Marcato, L. Schenato, and A. Pasuto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 715–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-715-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-715-2015, 2015
K. Prenger-Berninghoff, V. J. Cortes, T. Sprague, Z. C. Aye, S. Greiving, W. Głowacki, and S. Sterlacchini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 3261–3278, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3261-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-3261-2014, 2014
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Adaptation to unforeseen, hazardous events requires the implementation of purposeful risk reduction strategies that aim at both taking effective measures and using funds most efficiently. Coordination of long-term and short-term risk management strategies is considered crucial. This research discusses current problems and indicates benefits to establishing or strengthening the link between spatial planning (long-term perspective) and emergency management authorities (short-term perspective).
D. M. Krzeminska, T. A. Bogaard, T.-H. Debieche, F. Cervi, V. Marc, and J.-P. Malet
Earth Surf. Dynam., 2, 181–195, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-181-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-181-2014, 2014
U. Ehret, H. V. Gupta, M. Sivapalan, S. V. Weijs, S. J. Schymanski, G. Blöschl, A. N. Gelfan, C. Harman, A. Kleidon, T. A. Bogaard, D. Wang, T. Wagener, U. Scherer, E. Zehe, M. F. P. Bierkens, G. Di Baldassarre, J. Parajka, L. P. H. van Beek, A. van Griensven, M. C. Westhoff, and H. C. Winsemius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 649–671, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014, 2014
J. E. van der Spek, T. A. Bogaard, and M. Bakker
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2171–2183, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2171-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2171-2013, 2013
D. M. Krzeminska, T. A. Bogaard, J.-P. Malet, and L. P. H. van Beek
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 947–959, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-947-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-947-2013, 2013
M. Hrachowitz, H. Savenije, T. A. Bogaard, D. Tetzlaff, and C. Soulsby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 533–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-533-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-533-2013, 2013
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With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
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For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
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Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
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This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-82, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
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There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history, means the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry is scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study, to determine the suitability of current, published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset-hazard taxonomy is proposed, to guide future, quantitative research.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
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Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
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The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
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This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1188, 2024
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This paper evaluates the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The disaster impacts were largely associated with a fast urban expansion over the last three decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Also, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
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An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-758, 2024
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Natural disturbances will increase in the future endangering our forests and their provision of wood, protection against natural hazards and carbon sequestration. Considering the hazard to forests by wind or fire damage together with vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize high-risk forest stands. In this study we propose a new methodological approach helping with decision-making process for climate-smart forest management.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-59, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in water management, spatial and landscape planning in the Spree River basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this planning gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures and the adaptation of best practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
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We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
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Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
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A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
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The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
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In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
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Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
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We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-204, 2024
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Operationalision of “resilience” will be a major milestone contributing to hazard management for Critical infrastructures (CIs). To integrate resilience assessment into operational management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables users to create specific indicators to suit their particular situation. The assessment results can assist CIs managers in their decision-making as it is based on a multi-criteria framework that considers the various interests of stakeholders.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
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Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
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Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
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This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
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This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, 2024
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SLR will lead to more frequent flooding, and salt intrusion in coastal areas will be a major concern for farming households that are highly dependent on the soil quality for their livelihoods. In this study, we simulated the risk of SLR and flooding to coastal farmers by assessing salt intrusion risk and flood damage to buildings.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
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This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
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We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
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Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
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A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
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This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
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Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2715, 2023
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This manuscript addresses to numerically analyze the dynamic responses and damage mechanism of the pile-slab retaining wall under the rockfall impacts by employing the refined finite element model. The results provide insights into structure dynamic response analysis of the PSRW and serve as a benchmark for further research.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
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This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-142, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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In this paper, we provide a brief introduction on the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-hazard risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructures to increase their capabilities.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
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This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
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Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
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This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, and Zacharias Fasoulakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-137, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses which can impact population and assets of different types. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess the feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed to facilitate a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
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Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
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Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
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This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
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To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
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The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
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