Articles | Volume 14, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Review article
| Highlight paper
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05 Aug 2014
Review article | Highlight paper |
| 05 Aug 2014
MEDEX: a general overview
University of the Balearic Islands (UIB), Palma, Spain
formerly at: Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET), Palma, Spain
P. Alpert
Tel Aviv University (TAU), Tel Aviv, Israel
P. Arbogast
Meteo-France, Toulouse, France
A. Buzzi
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC/CNR), Bologna, Italy
B. Ivancan-Picek
Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ), Zagreb, Croatia
V. Kotroni
National Observatory of Athens (NOA), Athens, Greece
M. C. Llasat
University of Barcelona (UB), Barcelona, Spain
C. Ramis
University of the Balearic Islands (UIB), Palma, Spain
E. Richard
Laboratoire d'Aérologie (LA/CNRS and Toulouse University), Toulouse, France
R. Romero
University of the Balearic Islands (UIB), Palma, Spain
A. Speranza
University of Camerino (UNICAM), Camerino, Italy
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Preprint withdrawn
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The performances of flash-flood forecasts are evaluated using a meteorological model forcing a rainfall-runoff model. Both deterministic (single forecast of the most likely weather) and ensemble forecasts (set or ensemble of forecasts) have been produced on three subcatchments of the eastern Pyrenees exhibiting different rainfall regimes. Results show that both overall discharge forecast and flood warning are improved by the ensemble strategies with respect to the deterministic forecast.
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Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz, Arnau Amengual, Celso Garcia, Enrique Morán-Tejeda, Víctor Homar, Aina Maimó-Far, Alejandro Hermoso, Climent Ramis, and Romualdo Romero
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On 9 October 2018, an extreme convective storm (> 300 mm accumulated in 6 h) generated a flash flood (305 m3 s−1) in the Ses Planes torrent that devastated the town of Sant Llorenç (Mallorca, Spain). Water reached a depth of 3 m in the most affected areas, and there was greatly increased flow velocity at bridges crossing the town. The floodwaters were very powerful and modified the channel morphology: more than 5000 t of sediment was deposited in the 2 km reach upstream of the town.
Damián Insua-Costa, Gonzalo Miguez-Macho, and María Carmen Llasat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3900, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3885-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-3885-2019, 2019
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Here, we study the main moisture sources of the two famous western Mediterranean flood events of autumn 1982 (October and November). Results confirm the hypothesis that a large amount of precipitable water was involved, which was to a great extent advected from the tropics and subtropics. This remote moisture transport occurred at medium levels of the atmosphere via moisture plumes or atmospheric rivers. During the October event the contribution of local sources was also important.
Nadia Fourrié, Mathieu Nuret, Pierre Brousseau, Olivier Caumont, Alexis Doerenbecher, Eric Wattrelot, Patrick Moll, Hervé Bénichou, Dominique Puech, Olivier Bock, Pierre Bosser, Patrick Chazette, Cyrille Flamant, Paolo Di Girolamo, Evelyne Richard, and Frédérique Saïd
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2657–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2657-2019, 2019
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The AROME-WMED (western Mediterranean) model is a dedicated version of the mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction AROME-France model that ran in real time during the first special observation period of HyMeX. Two reanalyses were performed after the campaign. This paper depicts the main differences between the real-time version and the benefits brought by both HyMeX reanalyses. The second reanalysis is found to be closer to observations than the previous AROME-WMED analyses.
Léo Seyfried, Claude Estournel, Patrick Marsaleix, and Evelyne Richard
Ocean Sci., 15, 179–198, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-179-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-179-2019, 2019
Pavel Kishcha, Rachel T. Pinker, Isaac Gertman, Boris Starobinets, and Pinhas Alpert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3007–3018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3007-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3007-2018, 2018
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Increasing warming of steadily shrinking Dead Sea surface water was observed during the period of 2000–2016. We found that a positive feedback loop between the steady shrinking of the Dead Sea and positive sea surface temperature (SST) trends causes the acceleration of Dead Sea shrinking. Our findings imply the following essential point: any meteorological, hydrological or geophysical process causing steady shrinking of the Dead Sea will contribute to positive trends in SST.
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Heidi Kreibich, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Jeroen Aerts, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Marlies Barendrecht, Paul Bates, Marco Borga, Wouter Botzen, Philip Bubeck, Bruna De Marchi, Carmen Llasat, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Daniela Molinari, Elena Mondino, Johanna Mård, Olga Petrucci, Anna Scolobig, Alberto Viglione, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5629–5637, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018, 2018
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One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach and shown that increasing levels of flood protection can generate a false sense of security and attract more people to the risky areas. We briefly review the literature on this topic and then propose a research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection.
Maria Cortès, Marco Turco, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, and Maria Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 857–868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-857-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-857-2018, 2018
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The aim of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology to estimate surface water flood damages from heavy precipitation in the Mediterranean region of study. The relationship between precipitation and insurance data has been assessed, using logistic regression models, to assess the probability of large monetary damages in relation to heavy precipitation events. Results show that our model is able to simulate the probability of a damaging event as a function of precipitation.
Leenes Uzan, Smadar Egert, and Pinhas Alpert
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 3203–3221, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3203-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-3203-2018, 2018
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The extraordinarily extreme dust storm of September 2015 is analyzed using an array of eight ceilometers and auxiliary measurements, revealing the dust plume penetration, ground coverage and gradual dispersion in the first kilometer above Israel. This research emphasized the importance of ceilometer networks as an essential tool in the analysis of meteorological phenomena and aerosol transport as being the most valuable in the mesoscale.
Antoine Colmet-Daage, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Sophie Ricci, Cécile Llovel, Valérie Borrell Estupina, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Maria Carmen Llasat, and Eric Servat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 673–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-673-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-673-2018, 2018
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Here, the first assessment of future changes in extreme precipitation in small Mediterranean watersheds is done through three watersheds frequently subjected to flash floods. Collaboration between Spanish and French laboratories enabled us to conclude that the intensity of high precipitation will increase at the end of the century. A high degree of confidence results from the multi-model approach used here with eight regional climate models (RCMs) developed in the Med and Euro-CORDEX project.
Léo Seyfried, Patrick Marsaleix, Evelyne Richard, and Claude Estournel
Ocean Sci., 13, 1093–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-1093-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-1093-2017, 2017
Climent Ramis, Romualdo Romero, Víctor Homar, Sergio Alonso, Agustí Jansà, and Arnau Amengual
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2351–2364, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2351-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2351-2017, 2017
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During the hydrological year 2015–2016 (September to August) a severe drought affected the Balearic Islands, with substantial consequences on water availability. In this paper we analyze this anomalous episode in terms of the corresponding water balance. It is shown that the drought was the result of a lack of winter precipitation, the lowest in the last 43 years. In several analyzed meteorological stations, evaporation was greater than precipitation during all the months of the year.
Adam Eshel, Hagit Messer, Jonatan Ostrometzky, Roi Raich, Pinhas Alpert, and Jonathan B. Laronne
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-963, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-963, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Aurore Voldoire, Bertrand Decharme, Joris Pianezze, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Florence Sevault, Léo Seyfried, Valérie Garnier, Soline Bielli, Sophie Valcke, Antoinette Alias, Mickael Accensi, Fabrice Ardhuin, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Véronique Ducrocq, Stéphanie Faroux, Hervé Giordani, Fabien Léger, Patrick Marsaleix, Romain Rainaud, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Evelyne Richard, and Sébastien Riette
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4207–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, 2017
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This study presents the principles of the new coupling interface based on the SURFEX multi-surface model and the OASIS3-MCT coupler. As SURFEX can be plugged into several atmospheric models, it can be used in a wide range of applications. The objective of this development is to build and share a common structure for the atmosphere–surface coupling of all these applications, involving on the one hand atmospheric models and on the other hand ocean, ice, hydrology, and wave models.
Toni López Mayol, Víctor Homar, Climent Ramis, and José Antonio Guijarro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1061–1074, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1061-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1061-2017, 2017
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This paper presents a very high-resolution atlas of daily precipitations across the Balearic Islands. The generation of this data set not only allows us to lay the groundwork for future updates ingesting a myriad of observation sources but also aims to provide support to local and network–topology independent studies of precipitation–sensitive systems such as ecosystems, water resources and energy systems. As an example, a better understanding of the negative precipitation trends is found.
Valerio Lembo, Isabella Bordi, and Antonio Speranza
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 295–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-295-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-295-2017, 2017
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The study wishes to better characterize the annual and semiannual cycles of surface temperature and baroclinicity at midlatitudes as observed in ERA-Interim reanalysis data and AOGCM simulations. Results show that at the semiannual frequency model phases between surface temperature and baroclinicity have wide dispersion in both hemispheres with large errors in the estimates, denoting uncertainty and a degree of disagreement among models.
Assaf Hochman, Hadas Saaroni, Miryam Bar-Matthews, Baruch Ziv, and Pinhas Alpert
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-90, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-90, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Leenes Uzan, Smadar Egert, and Pinhas Alpert
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 4387–4398, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4387-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-4387-2016, 2016
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Compared to other regions, the eastern Mediterranean is rich in aerosol content and dust storms but poor in atmospheric measurements. This research is a first attempt in Israel to estimate the diurnal mixed layer height (MLH) based on CL31 ceilometers using the wavelet covariance transform (WCT) method. Simultaneous measurements, onshore and inland, showed a significant difference of 200 m of the MLH between the two sites, only 7.5 km apart, which complies well with radiosonde profiles.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Stefano Federico, Claudia Roberta Calidonna, Elenio Avolio, Oxana Drofa, Tony Christian Landi, Piero Malguzzi, Andrea Buzzi, and Paolo Bonasoni
Ann. Geophys., 34, 347–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-347-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-347-2016, 2016
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Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market.
This work shows the application of a technique to improve wind forecasting. The study area is southern Italy.
S. O. Krichak, S. B. Feldstein, P. Alpert, S. Gualdi, E. Scoccimarro, and J.-I. Yano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 269–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-269-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-269-2016, 2016
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This paper presents a review of a large number of research studies focused on the investigation of cold season extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in the Mediterranean region (MR) demonstrating an important role of anomalously intense transports of moist air from the tropical and subtropical Atlantic in the occurrence of the MR EPEs. The issue of a possible role of the recent past decline in Arctic sea ice in the climatology of the MR EPEs during the period is also addressed.
K. Papagiannaki, K. Lagouvardos, V. Kotroni, and A. Bezes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1859–1871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1859-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1859-2015, 2015
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48 flash flood events in the urban Attica region (2005-2014) resulted in 3,500 fire service operations, mostly in autumn. Events were mostly associated with max accumulated rain over 20mm/24h and 3mm/10min. Impact intensity was particularly high for more than 60mm/24h.
Rain intensity thresholds for flood triggering are produced for 15 sub-areas of the Attica region. The quality of the produced thresholds depends on the distribution and density of the rain gauges that cover each sub-area.
S. Margiotta, A. Lettino, A. Speranza, and V. Summa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1551–1561, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1551-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1551-2015, 2015
A. Hally, O. Caumont, L. Garrote, E. Richard, A. Weerts, F. Delogu, E. Fiori, N. Rebora, A. Parodi, A. Mihalović, M. Ivković, L. Dekić, W. van Verseveld, O. Nuissier, V. Ducrocq, D. D'Agostino, A. Galizia, E. Danovaro, and A. Clematis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 537–555, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-537-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-537-2015, 2015
E. Defer, J.-P. Pinty, S. Coquillat, J.-M. Martin, S. Prieur, S. Soula, E. Richard, W. Rison, P. Krehbiel, R. Thomas, D. Rodeheffer, C. Vergeiner, F. Malaterre, S. Pedeboy, W. Schulz, T. Farges, L.-J. Gallin, P. Ortéga, J.-F. Ribaud, G. Anderson, H.-D. Betz, B. Meneux, V. Kotroni, K. Lagouvardos, S. Roos, V. Ducrocq, O. Roussot, L. Labatut, and G. Molinié
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 649–669, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-649-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-649-2015, 2015
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The paper summarizes the scientific objectives and the observational/modeling strategy of the atmospheric electricity PEACH project of the HyMeX program focusing on the lightning activity and the electrical state of Mediterranean thunderstorms. Examples of concurrent observations from radio frequency to acoustic for regular and atypical lightning flashes and for storms are discussed, showing the unique and comprehensive description of lightning flashes recorded during a dedicated field campaign.
A. Barrera-Escoda and M. C. Llasat
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 465–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-465-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-465-2015, 2015
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Catastrophic floods (the most severe ones) in Catalonia from 1301 do not show any statistical trend, while extraordinary floods (moderate ones) have increased since 1850 due to a marked increase in developed land and population in small coastal basins.
The most significant flood-rich periods occurred with a strong negative NAO phase.
Solar activity has some impact on changes in catastrophic floods: flood-rich periods in autumn generally occurred during periods of increased solar activity.
Y. Liberman, R. Samuels, P. Alpert, and H. Messer
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 7, 3549–3563, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3549-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-7-3549-2014, 2014
A. Speranza, R. Caggiano, S. Margiotta, and S. Trippetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2727–2733, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2727-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2727-2014, 2014
P. Kishcha, A. M. da Silva, B. Starobinets, C. N. Long, O. Kalashnikova, and P. Alpert
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-23309-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-23309-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
K. Papagiannaki, K. Lagouvardos, V. Kotroni, and G. Papagiannakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2375–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2375-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2375-2014, 2014
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
L. Barbería, J. Amaro, M. Aran, and M. C. Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1843–1852, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1843-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1843-2014, 2014
A. Buzzi, S. Davolio, P. Malguzzi, O. Drofa, and D. Mastrangelo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1325–1340, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1325-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1325-2014, 2014
A. Hally, E. Richard, and V. Ducrocq
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1071–1084, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1071-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1071-2014, 2014
M. A. Picornell, J. Campins, and A. Jansà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1059–1070, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1059-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1059-2014, 2014
M. C. Llasat, M. Turco, P. Quintana-Seguí, and M. Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 427–441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-427-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-427-2014, 2014
R. Deidda, M. Marrocu, G. Caroletti, G. Pusceddu, A. Langousis, V. Lucarini, M. Puliga, and A. Speranza
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 5041–5059, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5041-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-5041-2013, 2013
C. Ramis, V. Homar, A. Amengual, R. Romero, and S. Alonso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2483–2491, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2483-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2483-2013, 2013
M. C. Llasat, M. Llasat-Botija, O. Petrucci, A. A. Pasqua, J. Rosselló, F. Vinet, and L. Boissier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1337–1350, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1337-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1337-2013, 2013
M. Turco, M. C. Llasat, A. Tudela, X. Castro, and A. Provenzale
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 649–652, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-649-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-649-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Brief Communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Examining the Eastern European heatwave of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
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Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
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Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Rain-on-snow responses to warmer Pyrenees: a sensitivity analysis using a physically based snow hydrological model
Spatial identification of regions at risk to multi-hazards at pan European level: an implemented methodological approach
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Probabilistic hazard assessment of the gas emission of Mefite d’Ansanto, Southern Italy
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) and differences between +CG and −CG strokes in China regarding the China National Lightning Detection Network
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
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In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
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To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
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European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
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The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
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A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
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We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
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High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
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Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
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Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
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What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1945, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1945, 2024
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Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically, and that such a specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
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The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
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EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
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We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
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This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
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To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
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Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1673, 2024
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The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
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This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
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The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Joona Samuel Cornér, Clément Gael Francis Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria Anne Sinclair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1749, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1749, 2024
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Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETC) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
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Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
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There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
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The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1207, 2024
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Eastern Europe's heatwave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heatwaves (HW): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
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We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
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Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
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Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
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The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
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This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
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The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
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The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
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Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
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We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
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Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
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Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
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How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
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Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
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We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
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Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
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The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan I. López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, 2024
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Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Alois Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-220, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-220, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hot-spots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at European level at risk to multi-hazards. The findings point out the socio-economic dimension as determinant factor for the risk potential to multi-hazard. The outcome provides valuable input for the Disaster Risk Management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in the National Risk Assessments preparation.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
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This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2867, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2867, 2023
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We present results of non-volcanic gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold gas stream, which had already been lethal for humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentration at defined probability levels and of the probability to overcome specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr A. Bońkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3839–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, 2023
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The paper deals with wind speeds of extreme wind events in Poland and the descriptions of their effects. Two recent estimations developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw and by Halina Lorenc are presented and briefly described. The 37 annual maximum gusts of wind speeds measured between 1971 and 2007 are analysed. Based on the measured and estimated wind speeds, the authors suggest new estimations for extreme winds that may occur in Poland.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, 2023
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Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistical dataset of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, 2023
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Lightning activity in China is analyzed. Low latitudes, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surfaces are beneficial for lightning occurrence. Summer of the year or afternoon of the day is the high period. Large cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning on either a temporal or spatial scale. Interestingly, the discharge intensity difference between the two types of lightning shrinks on the Tibetan Plateau.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
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Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
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Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
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