Modelling of cave-in occurrence using AHP and GIS

Abstract. The analysis of mining-induced sinkholes occurrence is a very important issue as far as the spatial development optimization is concerned. Research conducted for this paper was focussed on examining the applicability of GIS and the associated AHP method (analytic hierarchy process) for estimating the risk of discontinuous deformation occurrence on the surface. Qualitative factors were accounted for in the sinkhole risk assessment, thus creating bases for the research. These elements play an important role in the process of sinkholes formation; however, they were not used in prediction models. Another assumption lay in minimizing the number of variables in the model. Accordingly, the most important qualitative and quantitative risk factors were finally selected on the basis of whether the risk of cave-ins occurrence on the surface could be calculated. The results of the estimation of potential sinkhole zones were verified. The locations of actual and high-risk potential discontinuous deformation were compared. The congruence between predicted values and the actual observations of sinkholes was very high. The results of research presented prove the necessity to evaluate sinkhole hazards in view of qualitative factors.