Articles | Volume 14, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1461-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1461-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Jun 2014
Research article |
| 06 Jun 2014
Characterising the relationship between weather extremes in Europe and synoptic circulation features
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Related authors
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos and Stephan Pfahl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1382, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In a warmer climate, the winter extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic basin are expected to have a larger footprint of strong winds. Dynamical changes at different altitudes are responsible for these wind changes. Based on backward trajectories using the CESM-LE simulations, we show that the diabatic processes gain relevance as the planet warms. For instance, changes in the radiative processes will play an important role in the upper-level cyclone dynamics.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 427–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse the generic atmospheric processes of very extreme, 100-year precipitation events in large central European river catchments and the corresponding differences to less extreme events, based on a large time series (~1200 years) of simulated but realistic daily precipitation events from the ECMWF. Depending on the catchment, either dynamical mechanisms or thermodynamic conditions or a combination of both distinguish 100-year events from less extreme precipitation events.
Charles G. Gertler, Paul A. O'Gorman, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 361–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between the time-mean state of the atmosphere and aspects of atmospheric circulation drives general understanding of the atmospheric circulation. Here, we present new techniques to calculate local properties of the time-mean atmosphere and relate those properties to aspects of extratropical circulation with important implications for weather. This relationship should help connect changes to the atmosphere, such as under global warming, to changes in midlatitude weather.
Julian Quinting, Christian Michael Grams, Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-783, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-783, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Research in the last decades revealed that rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones have an important effect on the evolution of downstream weather and predictability. In this study, we show that the occurrence of these airstreams over the North Pacific is modulated by tropical convection. Depending on the modulation, known atmospheric circulation patterns evolve quite differently which may affect extended-range predictions in the Atlantic-European region.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-39, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as wind, extreme rainfall and hail. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and that cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storms and improved forecasting.
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-449, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-449, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable water vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
Lisa Schielicke and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1439–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Projected future heatwaves in many European regions will be even warmer than the mean increase in summer temperature suggests. To identify the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic processes, we compare Lagrangian backward trajectories of airstreams associated with heatwaves in two time slices (1991–2000 and 2091–2100) in a large single-model ensemble (CEMS-LE). We find stronger future descent associated with adiabatic warming in some regions and increased future diabatic heating in most regions.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Andries Jan de Vries, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8863–8895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth's water cycle contains the common H2O molecule but also the less abundant, heavier HDO. We use their different physical properties to study tropical ice clouds in model simulations of the West African monsoon. Isotope signals reveal different processes through which ice clouds form and decay in deep-convective and widespread cirrus. Previously observed variations in upper-tropospheric vapour isotopes are explained by microphysical processes in convective updraughts and downdraughts.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Franziska Teubler, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 429–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Strong winds caused by extratropical cyclones represent a costly hazard for European countries. Here, based on CESM-LENS coupled climate simulations, we show that future changes of such strong winds are characterized by an increased magnitude and extended footprint southeast of the cyclone center. This intensification is related to a combination of increased diabatic heating and changes in upper-level wave dynamics.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Olivia Martius, Stephan Pfahl, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking is associated with stationary, self-sustaining and long-lasting high-pressure systems. They can cause or at least influence surface weather extremes, such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts or wind extremes. The location of the blocking determines where and what type of extreme event will occur. These relationships are also important for weather prediction and may change due to global warming.
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
Zhihong Zhuo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13425–13442, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of volcanic eruptions varies with eruption season and latitude. This study simulated eruptions at different latitudes and in different seasons with a fully coupled climate model. The climate impacts of northern and southern hemispheric eruptions are reversed but are insensitive to eruption season. Results suggest that the regional climate impacts are due to the dynamical response of the climate system to radiative effects of volcanic aerosols and the subsequent regional feedbacks.
Daniel Steinfeld, Maxi Boettcher, Richard Forbes, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of latent heating on atmospheric blocking is investigated using numerical sensitivity experiments. The modification of latent heating in the upstream cyclone has substantial effects on the upper-tropospheric circulation, demonstrating that some blocking systems do not develop at all without upstream latent heating. The results highlight the importance of moist-diabatic processes for the dynamics of prolonged anticyclonic circulation anomalies.
Iris Thurnherr, Anna Kozachek, Pascal Graf, Yongbiao Weng, Dimitri Bolshiyanov, Sebastian Landwehr, Stephan Pfahl, Julia Schmale, Harald Sodemann, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Alessandro Toffoli, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5811–5835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes (SWIs) are tracers of moist atmospheric processes. We analyse the impact of large- to small-scale atmospheric processes and various environmental conditions on the variability of SWIs using ship-based SWI measurement in water vapour from the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Furthermore, simultaneous measurements of SWIs at two altitudes are used to illustrate the potential of such measurements for future research to estimate sea spray evaporation and turbulent moisture fluxes.
Philipp Zschenderlein, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, and Andreas H. Fink
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 191–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the formation of upper-tropospheric anticyclones connected to European surface heat waves. Tracing air masses backwards from these anticyclones, we found that trajectories are diabatically heated in two branches, either by North Atlantic cyclones or by convection closer to the heat wave anticyclone. The first branch primarily affects the onset of the anticyclone, while the second branch is more relevant for the maintenance. Our results are relevant for heat wave predictions.
Mareike Schuster, Jens Grieger, Andy Richling, Thomas Schartner, Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Wolfgang A. Müller, Holger Pohlmann, Stephan Pfahl, and Uwe Ulbrich
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 901–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Decadal climate predictions are valuable to society as they allow us to estimate climate conditions several years in advance. We analyze the latest version of the German MiKlip prediction system (https://www.fona-miklip.de) and assess the effect of the model resolution on the skill of the system. The increase in the resolution of the system reduces the bias and significantly improves the forecast skill for North Atlantic extratropical winter dynamics for lead times of two to five winters.
Emmanuele Russo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, Martijn Schaap, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5229–5249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This is an investigation of COSMO-CLM 5.0 sensitivity for the CORDEX Central Asia domain, with the main goal of evaluating general model performances for the area, proposing a model optimal configuration to be used in projection studies.
Results show that the model seems to be particularly sensitive to those parameterizations that deal with soil and surface features and that could positively affect the repartition of incoming radiation.
Keun-Ok Lee, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, Cyrille Flamant, Jean-Lionel Lacour, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7487–7506, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7487-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7487-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our study is the first study to investigate the potential benefit of stable water isotopes (SWIs) in the context of a heavy precipitation event in the Mediterranean. As such, our study provides a proof of concept of the usefulness of SWI data to understand the variety of origins and moisture processes associated with air masses feeding the convection over southern Italy.
Bojan Škerlak, Stephan Pfahl, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6535–6549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6535-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6535-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Upper-level fronts are often associated with the rapid transport of stratospheric air to the lower troposphere, leading to significantly enhanced ozone concentrations. This paper considers the multi-scale nature that is needed to bring stratospheric air down to the surface. The final transport step to the surface can be related to frontal zones and the associated vertical winds or to near-horizontal tracer transport followed by entrainment into a growing planetary boundary layer.
Pascal Graf, Heini Wernli, Stephan Pfahl, and Harald Sodemann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 747–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-747-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-747-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This article studies the interaction between falling rain and vapour with stable water isotopes. In particular, rain evaporation is relevant for several atmospheric processes, but remains difficult to quantify. A novel framework is introduced to facilitate the interpretation of stable water isotope observations in near-surface vapour and rain. The usefulness of this concept is demonstrated using observations at high time resolution from a cold front. Sensitivities are tested with a simple model.
Johannes Eckstein, Roland Ruhnke, Stephan Pfahl, Emanuel Christner, Christopher Diekmann, Christoph Dyroff, Daniel Reinert, Daniel Rieger, Matthias Schneider, Jennifer Schröter, Andreas Zahn, and Peter Braesicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5113–5133, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5113-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5113-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present ICON-ART-Iso, an extension to the global circulation model ICON, which allows for the simulation of the stable isotopologues of water. The main advantage over other isotope-enabled models is its flexible design with respect to the number of tracers simulated. We compare the results of several simulations to measurements of different scale. ICON-ART-Iso is able to reasonably reproduce the measurements. It is a promising tool to aid in the investigation of the atmospheric water cycle.
Marina Dütsch, Stephan Pfahl, Miro Meyer, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1653–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1653-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric processes are imprinted in the concentrations of stable water isotopes. Therefore, isotopes can be used to gain insight into these processes and improve our understanding of the water cycle. In this study, we present a new method that quantitatively shows which atmospheric processes influence isotope concentrations in near-surface water vapour over Europe. We found that the most important processes are evaporation from the ocean, evapotranspiration from land, and turbulent mixing.
Harald Sodemann, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, Mark Bitter, Ulrich Corsmeier, Thomas Feuerle, Pascal Graf, Rolf Hankers, Gregor Hsiao, Helmut Schulz, Andreas Wieser, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6125–6151, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6125-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6125-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We report here the first survey of stable water isotope composition over the Mediterranean sea made from aircraft. The stable isotope composition of the atmospheric water vapour changed in response to evaporation conditions at the sea surface, elevation, and airmass transport history. Our data set will be valuable for testing how water is transported in weather prediction and climate models and for understanding processes in the Mediterranean water cycle.
C. M. Grams, H. Binder, S. Pfahl, N. Piaget, and H. Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1691–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014, 2014
A. Winschall, S. Pfahl, H. Sodemann, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6605–6619, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6605-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6605-2014, 2014
F. Aemisegger, S. Pfahl, H. Sodemann, I. Lehner, S. I. Seneviratne, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4029–4054, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4029-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4029-2014, 2014
S. Pfahl and H. Sodemann
Clim. Past, 10, 771–781, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-771-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-771-2014, 2014
A. K. Miltenberger, S. Pfahl, and H. Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1989–2004, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1989-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1989-2013, 2013
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos and Stephan Pfahl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1382, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In a warmer climate, the winter extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic basin are expected to have a larger footprint of strong winds. Dynamical changes at different altitudes are responsible for these wind changes. Based on backward trajectories using the CESM-LE simulations, we show that the diabatic processes gain relevance as the planet warms. For instance, changes in the radiative processes will play an important role in the upper-level cyclone dynamics.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 427–447, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-427-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse the generic atmospheric processes of very extreme, 100-year precipitation events in large central European river catchments and the corresponding differences to less extreme events, based on a large time series (~1200 years) of simulated but realistic daily precipitation events from the ECMWF. Depending on the catchment, either dynamical mechanisms or thermodynamic conditions or a combination of both distinguish 100-year events from less extreme precipitation events.
Charles G. Gertler, Paul A. O'Gorman, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 361–379, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-361-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The relationship between the time-mean state of the atmosphere and aspects of atmospheric circulation drives general understanding of the atmospheric circulation. Here, we present new techniques to calculate local properties of the time-mean atmosphere and relate those properties to aspects of extratropical circulation with important implications for weather. This relationship should help connect changes to the atmosphere, such as under global warming, to changes in midlatitude weather.
Julian Quinting, Christian Michael Grams, Edmund Kar-Man Chang, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-783, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-783, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Research in the last decades revealed that rapidly ascending airstreams in extratropical cyclones have an important effect on the evolution of downstream weather and predictability. In this study, we show that the occurrence of these airstreams over the North Pacific is modulated by tropical convection. Depending on the modulation, known atmospheric circulation patterns evolve quite differently which may affect extended-range predictions in the Atlantic-European region.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-39, 2023
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as wind, extreme rainfall and hail. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and that cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storms and improved forecasting.
Leonie Villiger, Marina Dütsch, Sandrine Bony, Marie Lothon, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, Pierre-Etienne Brilouet, Patrick Chazette, Pierre Coutris, Julien Delanoë, Cyrille Flamant, Alfons Schwarzenboeck, Martin Werner, and Franziska Aemisegger
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-449, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-449, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates three numerical simulations performed with an isotope-enabled weather forecast model and investigates the coupling between shallow trade-wind cumulus clouds and atmospheric circulations on different scales. We show that the simulations reproduce key characteristics of shallow trade-wind clouds as observed during the field experiment EUREC4A and that the spatial distribution of stable water vapour isotopes is shaped by the overturning circulation associated with these clouds.
Lisa Schielicke and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1439–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1439-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Projected future heatwaves in many European regions will be even warmer than the mean increase in summer temperature suggests. To identify the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic processes, we compare Lagrangian backward trajectories of airstreams associated with heatwaves in two time slices (1991–2000 and 2091–2100) in a large single-model ensemble (CEMS-LE). We find stronger future descent associated with adiabatic warming in some regions and increased future diabatic heating in most regions.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Andries Jan de Vries, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 8863–8895, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-8863-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Earth's water cycle contains the common H2O molecule but also the less abundant, heavier HDO. We use their different physical properties to study tropical ice clouds in model simulations of the West African monsoon. Isotope signals reveal different processes through which ice clouds form and decay in deep-convective and widespread cirrus. Previously observed variations in upper-tropospheric vapour isotopes are explained by microphysical processes in convective updraughts and downdraughts.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Franziska Teubler, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 429–448, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-429-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Strong winds caused by extratropical cyclones represent a costly hazard for European countries. Here, based on CESM-LENS coupled climate simulations, we show that future changes of such strong winds are characterized by an increased magnitude and extended footprint southeast of the cyclone center. This intensification is related to a combination of increased diabatic heating and changes in upper-level wave dynamics.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Olivia Martius, Stephan Pfahl, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking is associated with stationary, self-sustaining and long-lasting high-pressure systems. They can cause or at least influence surface weather extremes, such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts or wind extremes. The location of the blocking determines where and what type of extreme event will occur. These relationships are also important for weather prediction and may change due to global warming.
Fabienne Dahinden, Franziska Aemisegger, Heini Wernli, Matthias Schneider, Christopher J. Diekmann, Benjamin Ertl, Peter Knippertz, Martin Werner, and Stephan Pfahl
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16319–16347, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16319-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use high-resolution numerical isotope modelling and Lagrangian backward trajectories to identify moisture transport pathways and governing physical and dynamical processes that affect the free-tropospheric humidity and isotopic variability over the eastern subtropical North Atlantic. Furthermore, we conduct a thorough isotope modelling validation with aircraft and remote-sensing observations of water vapour isotopes.
Zhihong Zhuo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 13425–13442, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-13425-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of volcanic eruptions varies with eruption season and latitude. This study simulated eruptions at different latitudes and in different seasons with a fully coupled climate model. The climate impacts of northern and southern hemispheric eruptions are reversed but are insensitive to eruption season. Results suggest that the regional climate impacts are due to the dynamical response of the climate system to radiative effects of volcanic aerosols and the subsequent regional feedbacks.
Daniel Steinfeld, Maxi Boettcher, Richard Forbes, and Stephan Pfahl
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 405–426, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-405-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of latent heating on atmospheric blocking is investigated using numerical sensitivity experiments. The modification of latent heating in the upstream cyclone has substantial effects on the upper-tropospheric circulation, demonstrating that some blocking systems do not develop at all without upstream latent heating. The results highlight the importance of moist-diabatic processes for the dynamics of prolonged anticyclonic circulation anomalies.
Iris Thurnherr, Anna Kozachek, Pascal Graf, Yongbiao Weng, Dimitri Bolshiyanov, Sebastian Landwehr, Stephan Pfahl, Julia Schmale, Harald Sodemann, Hans Christian Steen-Larsen, Alessandro Toffoli, Heini Wernli, and Franziska Aemisegger
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 5811–5835, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5811-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Stable water isotopes (SWIs) are tracers of moist atmospheric processes. We analyse the impact of large- to small-scale atmospheric processes and various environmental conditions on the variability of SWIs using ship-based SWI measurement in water vapour from the Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Furthermore, simultaneous measurements of SWIs at two altitudes are used to illustrate the potential of such measurements for future research to estimate sea spray evaporation and turbulent moisture fluxes.
Philipp Zschenderlein, Stephan Pfahl, Heini Wernli, and Andreas H. Fink
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 191–206, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-191-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the formation of upper-tropospheric anticyclones connected to European surface heat waves. Tracing air masses backwards from these anticyclones, we found that trajectories are diabatically heated in two branches, either by North Atlantic cyclones or by convection closer to the heat wave anticyclone. The first branch primarily affects the onset of the anticyclone, while the second branch is more relevant for the maintenance. Our results are relevant for heat wave predictions.
Mareike Schuster, Jens Grieger, Andy Richling, Thomas Schartner, Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Wolfgang A. Müller, Holger Pohlmann, Stephan Pfahl, and Uwe Ulbrich
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 901–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Decadal climate predictions are valuable to society as they allow us to estimate climate conditions several years in advance. We analyze the latest version of the German MiKlip prediction system (https://www.fona-miklip.de) and assess the effect of the model resolution on the skill of the system. The increase in the resolution of the system reduces the bias and significantly improves the forecast skill for North Atlantic extratropical winter dynamics for lead times of two to five winters.
Emmanuele Russo, Ingo Kirchner, Stephan Pfahl, Martijn Schaap, and Ulrich Cubasch
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5229–5249, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5229-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This is an investigation of COSMO-CLM 5.0 sensitivity for the CORDEX Central Asia domain, with the main goal of evaluating general model performances for the area, proposing a model optimal configuration to be used in projection studies.
Results show that the model seems to be particularly sensitive to those parameterizations that deal with soil and surface features and that could positively affect the repartition of incoming radiation.
Keun-Ok Lee, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, Cyrille Flamant, Jean-Lionel Lacour, and Jean-Pierre Chaboureau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 7487–7506, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7487-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7487-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Our study is the first study to investigate the potential benefit of stable water isotopes (SWIs) in the context of a heavy precipitation event in the Mediterranean. As such, our study provides a proof of concept of the usefulness of SWI data to understand the variety of origins and moisture processes associated with air masses feeding the convection over southern Italy.
Bojan Škerlak, Stephan Pfahl, Michael Sprenger, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 6535–6549, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6535-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-6535-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Upper-level fronts are often associated with the rapid transport of stratospheric air to the lower troposphere, leading to significantly enhanced ozone concentrations. This paper considers the multi-scale nature that is needed to bring stratospheric air down to the surface. The final transport step to the surface can be related to frontal zones and the associated vertical winds or to near-horizontal tracer transport followed by entrainment into a growing planetary boundary layer.
Pascal Graf, Heini Wernli, Stephan Pfahl, and Harald Sodemann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 747–765, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-747-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-747-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This article studies the interaction between falling rain and vapour with stable water isotopes. In particular, rain evaporation is relevant for several atmospheric processes, but remains difficult to quantify. A novel framework is introduced to facilitate the interpretation of stable water isotope observations in near-surface vapour and rain. The usefulness of this concept is demonstrated using observations at high time resolution from a cold front. Sensitivities are tested with a simple model.
Johannes Eckstein, Roland Ruhnke, Stephan Pfahl, Emanuel Christner, Christopher Diekmann, Christoph Dyroff, Daniel Reinert, Daniel Rieger, Matthias Schneider, Jennifer Schröter, Andreas Zahn, and Peter Braesicke
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5113–5133, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5113-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5113-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present ICON-ART-Iso, an extension to the global circulation model ICON, which allows for the simulation of the stable isotopologues of water. The main advantage over other isotope-enabled models is its flexible design with respect to the number of tracers simulated. We compare the results of several simulations to measurements of different scale. ICON-ART-Iso is able to reasonably reproduce the measurements. It is a promising tool to aid in the investigation of the atmospheric water cycle.
Marina Dütsch, Stephan Pfahl, Miro Meyer, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1653–1669, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1653-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1653-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric processes are imprinted in the concentrations of stable water isotopes. Therefore, isotopes can be used to gain insight into these processes and improve our understanding of the water cycle. In this study, we present a new method that quantitatively shows which atmospheric processes influence isotope concentrations in near-surface water vapour over Europe. We found that the most important processes are evaporation from the ocean, evapotranspiration from land, and turbulent mixing.
Harald Sodemann, Franziska Aemisegger, Stephan Pfahl, Mark Bitter, Ulrich Corsmeier, Thomas Feuerle, Pascal Graf, Rolf Hankers, Gregor Hsiao, Helmut Schulz, Andreas Wieser, and Heini Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6125–6151, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6125-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6125-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
We report here the first survey of stable water isotope composition over the Mediterranean sea made from aircraft. The stable isotope composition of the atmospheric water vapour changed in response to evaporation conditions at the sea surface, elevation, and airmass transport history. Our data set will be valuable for testing how water is transported in weather prediction and climate models and for understanding processes in the Mediterranean water cycle.
C. M. Grams, H. Binder, S. Pfahl, N. Piaget, and H. Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1691–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014, 2014
A. Winschall, S. Pfahl, H. Sodemann, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6605–6619, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6605-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6605-2014, 2014
F. Aemisegger, S. Pfahl, H. Sodemann, I. Lehner, S. I. Seneviratne, and H. Wernli
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 4029–4054, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4029-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-4029-2014, 2014
S. Pfahl and H. Sodemann
Clim. Past, 10, 771–781, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-771-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-771-2014, 2014
A. K. Miltenberger, S. Pfahl, and H. Wernli
Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 1989–2004, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1989-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-1989-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Assimilation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) pseudo-observations in AROME-France – proof of concept
A phytoplankton bloom caused by the super cyclonic storm Amphan in the central Bay of Bengal
Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018
Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes
Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices
Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts
The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?
Forecasting Large Hail and Lightning using Additive Logistic Regression Models and the ECMWF Reforecasts
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms
Effect of extreme El Niño events on the precipitation of Ecuador
Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks
Development and evaluation of a method to identify potential release areas of snow avalanches based on watershed delineation
Heat wave monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends
Variations of extreme precipitation events with sub-daily data: a case study in the Ganjiang River basin
Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France
Improving the predictability of the Qendresa Medicane by the assimilation of conventional and atmospheric motion vector observations. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast
Investigation of an extreme rainfall event during 8–12 December 2018 over central Vietnam – Part 1: Analysis and cloud-resolving simulation
Increased spatial extent and likelihood of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China, 1961–2014
Validating a tailored drought risk assessment methodology: drought risk assessment in local Papua New Guinea regions
Seasonal fire danger forecasts for supporting fire prevention management in an eastern Mediterranean environment: the case of Attica, Greece
Uncovering the veil of night light changes in times of catastrophe
Time of emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence properties
Skillful decadal prediction of German Bight storm activity
Droughts in Germany: performance of regional climate models in reproducing observed characteristics
Analysis of the relationship between yield in cereals and remotely sensed fAPAR in the framework of monitoring drought impacts in Europe
Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area
Using high-resolution global climate models from the PRIMAVERA project to create a European winter windstorm event set
Real-time urban rainstorm and waterlogging disaster detection by Weibo users
Sensitivity of simulating Typhoon Haiyan (2013) using WRF: the role of cumulus convection, surface flux parameterizations, spectral nudging, and initial and boundary conditions
A satellite lightning observation operator for storm-scale numerical weather prediction
Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: a collective need for unifying drought risk management
Idealized simulations of Mei-yu rainfall in Taiwan under uniform southwesterly flow using a cloud-resolving model
Hotspots for warm and dry summers in Romania
Development of a forecast-oriented kilometre-resolution ocean–atmosphere coupled system for western Europe and sensitivity study for a severe weather situation
Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspective
Hydrometeorological analysis of the 12 and 13 September 2019 widespread flash flooding in eastern Spain
Monitoring the daily evolution and extent of snow drought
Characteristics of precipitation extremes over the Nordic region: added value of convection-permitting modeling
Adaptation and application of the large LAERTES-EU regional climate model ensemble for modeling hydrological extremes: a pilot study for the Rhine basin
Invited perspectives: how does climate change affect the risk of natural hazards? Challenges and step changes from the reinsurance perspective
Nowcasting thunderstorm hazards using machine learning: the impact of data sources on performance
Spatio-temporal evolution of wet–dry event features and their transition across the Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB) in South Asia
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Haojie Huang, Linfei Bai, Hao Shen, Xiaoqi Ding, Rui Wang, and Haibin Lü
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2807–2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The super cyclonic storm Amphan occurred in the central Bay of Bengal in May 2020, and a phytoplankton bloom occurred. Its dynamic mechanism was first researched. An inertial oscillation with a 2 d period appeared and lasted for approximately 2 weeks. With the weakened thermocline and thinner barrier layer thickness, nitrate and Chl a were uplifted to the upper ocean by upwelling. With the high photosynthetically available radiation, a phytoplankton bloom occurred.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2593–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans De Moel, and Anne F. Van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We characterize meteorological (P), soil moisture (SM) and hydrological (Q) droughts and the propagation from one to the other for 318 catchments in the Horn of Africa. We find that propagation from P to SM is influenced by soil properties and vegetation, while propagation from P to Q is from catchment-scale hydrogeological properties (i.e. geology, slope). We provide precipitation accumulation periods at the subbasin level that can be used as a proxy in drought forecasting in dryland regions.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Emma E. Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, and Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1921–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify, and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. The changes can be directly linked to real-world events, which makes the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-40, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-40, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improving forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Heinz Jürgen Punge, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael Kunz, Sarah D. Bang, and Kyle F. Itterly
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1549–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance claims data. It is found that hail is mainly concentrated in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event characteristics, such as multiple events per day or track dimensions, provides an event catalogue for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, as required by insurance companies.
Dirk R. Thielen, Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi, Ezequiel Zamora-Ledezma, Mary L. Puche, Marco Marquez, José I. Quintero, Wilmer Rojas, Alberto Quintero, Guillermo Bianchi, Irma A. Soto-Werschitz, and Marco Aurelio Arizapana-Almonacid
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1507–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme El Niño events are unique in their strong impacts and differ from other El Niños. In Ecuador, extreme eastern Pacific El Niño and coastal El Niño generate dangerous precipitation anomalies, particularly in areas with a high natural seasonality index, steep terrain, and a close proximity to the coast. These findings can help develop effective strategies to reduce vulnerability to potential increases in extreme El Niño frequency and intensity.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1383–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a method that identifies individual potential release areas (PRAs) of snow avalanches based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Results may contribute to better understanding local avalanche hazard. The work may also foster the development of more efficient PRA detection methods based on a rigorous evaluation scheme.
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heat waves (HWs) are climatic hazards that affect the planet. We assess here uncertainties encountered in the process of HW detection and analyse their recent trends in West Africa using reanalysis data. Three types of uncertainty have been investigated. We identified 6 years with higher frequency of HWs, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic. We noticed an increase in HW characteristics during the last decade, which could be a consequence of climate change.
Guangxu Liu, Aicun Xiang, Zhiwei Wan, Yang Zhou, Jie Wu, Yuandong Wang, and Sichen Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on investigating the thresholds of extreme precipitation using sub-daily records in the Ganjiang River basin using gamma distribution, the L-moment method and the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. The main findings are (1) run 3 (36 h) precipitation events would be key events for flood monitoring. (2）The intensity and the occasional probability of extreme precipitation will increase in spring in the future in stations like Yifeng, Zhangshu and Ningdu.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Diego S. Carrió
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 847–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate prediction of medicanes still remains a key challenge in the scientific community because of their poor predictability. In this study we assimilate different observations to improve the trajectory and intensity forecasts of the Qendresa Medicane. Results show the importance of using data assimilation techniques to improve the estimate of the atmospheric flow in the upper-level atmosphere, which has been shown to be key to improve the prediction of Qendresa.
Chung-Chieh Wang and Duc Van Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 771–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A record-breaking rainfall event over central Vietnam is investigated. Key factors include the combined effect of northeasterly wind, easterly wind blowing to central Vietnam from the western North Pacific (WNP), southeasterly wind, local topography, and high sea surface temperature (SST) over WNP and the South China Sea (SCS). The cloud-resolving storm simulator (CReSS) is applied to simulate this event. The results show that the model mostly captured the quantitative rainfall of this event.
Yi Yang, Douglas Maraun, Albert Ossó, and Jianping Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 693–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study quantifies the spatiotemporal variation and characteristics of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China over the 1961–2014 period. The results show that over the past few decades, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of these compound events across most parts of China, which is dominated by rising temperatures. We detect a strong increase in the spatially contiguous areas experiencing concurrent dry and hot conditions.
Isabella Aitkenhead, Yuriy Kuleshov, Jessica Bhardwaj, Zhi-Weng Chua, Chayn Sun, and Suelynn Choy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 553–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-553-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A case study assessing drought risk in Papua New Guinea (PNG) provinces for retrospective years (2014–2020) was conducted to demonstrate the development and validate the application of a tailored and semi-dynamic drought risk assessment methodology. Hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indicators appropriate for monitoring drought in PNG provinces were selected. The risk assessment accurately indicated a strong drought event in 2015–2016 and a moderate event in 2019.
Anna Karali, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Christos Giannakopoulos, Panagiotis P. Nastos, and Maria Hatzaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 429–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As climate change leads to more frequent and severe fires, forecasting fire danger before fire season begins can support fire management. This study aims to provide high-resolution probabilistic seasonal fire danger forecasts in a Mediterranean environment and assess their ability to capture years with increased fire activity. Results indicate that forecasts are skillful in predicting above-normal fire danger conditions and can be exploited by regional authorities in fire prevention management.
Vincent Schippers and Wouter Botzen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 179–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Researchers studying economic impacts of natural disasters increasingly use night light as a proxy for local economic activity, when socioeconomic data are unavailable. But often it is unclear what changes in light intensity represent in the context of disasters. We study this in detail for Hurricane Katrina and find a strong correlation with building damage and changes in population and employment. We conclude that night light data are useful to study local impacts of natural disasters.
Bastien François and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events (CEs) result from a combination of several climate phenomena. In this study, we propose a new methodology to assess the time of emergence of CE probabilities and to quantify the contribution of marginal and dependence properties of climate phenomena to the overall CE probability changes. By applying our methodology to two case studies, we show the importance of considering changes in both marginal and dependence properties for future risk assessments related to CEs.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Patrick Pieper, Ralf Weisse, and Johanna Baehr
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3993–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of storm activity are desirable for coastal management. We investigate how well a climate model can predict storm activity in the German Bight 1–10 years in advance. We let the model predict the past, compare these predictions to observations, and analyze whether the model is doing better than simple statistical predictions. We find that the model generally shows good skill for extreme periods, but the prediction timeframes with good skill depend on the type of prediction.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3875–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on drought reproduction in Germany between 1980–2009 is investigated here. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Gridded observational data sets serve as reference. Regarding the reproduction of drought characteristics, all models perform on a similar level, while for trends, only the modified model produces reliable outputs.
Carmelo Cammalleri, Niall McCormick, and Andrea Toreti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3737–3750, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3737-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the ability of vegetation indices derived from satellite data to capture annual yield variations across Europe. The strength of the relationship varies throughout the year, with March–October representing the optimal period in most cases. Spatial differences were also observed, with the best results obtained in the Mediterranean regions.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Julia F. Lockwood, Galina S. Guentchev, Alexander Alabaster, Simon J. Brown, Erika J. Palin, Malcolm J. Roberts, and Hazel E. Thornton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3585–3606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe how we developed a set of 1300 years' worth of European winter windstorm footprints, using a multi-model ensemble of high-resolution global climate models, for use by the insurance industry to analyse windstorm risk. The large amount of data greatly reduces uncertainty on risk estimates compared to using shorter observational data sets and also allows the relationship between windstorm risk and predictable large-scale climate indices to be quantified.
Haoran Zhu, Priscilla Obeng Oforiwaa, and Guofeng Su
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3349–3359, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3349-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3349-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We promote a new method to detect waterlogging disasters. Residents are directly affected by waterlogging, and we can collect their comments on social networks. Compared to official-authentication and personal-certification users, the microblogs posted by general users can better show the intensity and timing of waterlogging. Through text and sentiment features, we can separate microblogs with waterlogging information from other ones and mark high-risk regions on maps.
Rafaela Jane Delfino, Gerry Bagtasa, Kevin Hodges, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3285–3307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We showed the effects of altering the choice of cumulus schemes, surface flux options, and spectral nudging with a high level of sensitivity to cumulus schemes in simulating an intense typhoon. We highlight the advantage of using an ensemble of cumulus parameterizations to take into account the uncertainty in simulating typhoons such as Haiyan in 2013. This study is useful in addressing the growing need to plan and prepare for as well as reduce the impacts of intense typhoons in the Philippines.
Pauline Combarnous, Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, Éric Defer, and Maud Martet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2943–2962, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study is to prepare the assimilation of satellite lightning data in the French regional numerical weather prediction system. The assimilation of lightning data requires an observation operator, based on empirical relationships between the lightning observations and a set of proxies derived from the numerical weather prediction system variables. We fit machine learning regression models to our data to yield those relationships and to investigate the best proxy for lightning.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Chung-Chieh Wang, Pi-Yu Chuang, Shi-Ting Chen, Dong-In Lee, and Kazuhisa Tsuboki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1795–1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, cloud-resolving simulations are performed under idealized and uniform southwesterly flow direction and speed to investigate the rainfall regimes in the Mei-yu season and the role of complex mesoscale topography on rainfall without the influence of unwanted disturbances, including a low-Froude number regime where the thermodynamic effects and island circulation dominate, a high-Froude number regime where topographic rainfall in a flow-over scenario prevails, and a mixed regime.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Patrick Scholz, and Monica Ionita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1347–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we have assessed the variability and trends of hot and dry summers in Romania. The length, spatial extent, and frequency of heat waves in Romania have increased significantly over the last 70 years, while no significant changes have been observed in the drought conditions. The increased frequency of heat waves, especially after the 1990s, could be partially explained by an increase in the geopotential height over the eastern part of Europe.
Joris Pianezze, Jonathan Beuvier, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Guillaume Samson, Ghislain Faure, and Gilles Garric
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1301–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Most numerical weather and oceanic prediction systems do not consider ocean–atmosphere feedback during forecast, and this can lead to significant forecast errors, notably in cases of severe situations. A new high-resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere system is presented in this paper. This forecast-oriented system, based on current regional operational systems and evaluated using satellite and in situ observations, shows that the coupling improves both atmospheric and oceanic forecasts.
Katherine L. Towey, James F. Booth, Alejandra Rodriguez Enriquez, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1287–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding due to storm surge from tropical cyclones is a significant hazard. The influence of tropical cyclone characteristics, including its proximity, intensity, path angle, and speed, on the magnitude of storm surge is examined along the eastern United States. No individual characteristic was found to be strongly related to how much surge occurred at a site, though there is an increased likelihood of high surge occurring when tropical cyclones are both strong and close to a location.
Arnau Amengual
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1159–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
On 12 and 13 September 2019, a long-lasting heavy precipitation episode resulted in widespread flash flooding over eastern Spain. Well-organized and quasi-stationary convective structures impacted a vast area with rainfall amounts over 200 mm. The very dry initial soil moisture conditions resulted in a dampened hydrological response: until runoff thresholds were exceeded, infiltration-excess generation did not start. This threshold-based behaviour is explored through simple scaling theory.
Benjamin J. Hatchett, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel J. McEvoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 869–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-869-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-869-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snow droughts, or below-average snowpack, can result from either dry conditions and/or rainfall instead of snowfall. Monitoring snow drought through time and across space is important to evaluate when snow drought onset occurred, its duration, spatial extent, and severity as well as what conditions created it or led to its termination. We present visualization techniques, including a web-based snow-drought-tracking tool, to evaluate snow droughts and assess their impacts in the western US.
Erika Médus, Emma D. Thomassen, Danijel Belušić, Petter Lind, Peter Berg, Jens H. Christensen, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Jonas Olsson, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the skill of a regional climate model, HARMONIE-Climate, to capture the present-day characteristics of heavy precipitation in the Nordic region and investigate the added value provided by a convection-permitting model version. The higher model resolution improves the representation of hourly heavy- and extreme-precipitation events and their diurnal cycle. The results indicate the benefits of convection-permitting models for constructing climate change projections over the region.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, Yi He, Martin Kadlec, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hilke S. Lentink, Patrick Ludwig, Desmond Manful, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 677–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
For various applications, it is crucial to have profound knowledge of the frequency, severity, and risk of extreme flood events. Such events are characterized by very long return periods which observations can not cover. We use a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations as input for a hydrological model. Precipitation data were post-processed to reduce systematic errors. The representation of precipitation and discharge is improved, and estimates of long return periods become robust.
Anja T. Rädler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 659–664, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-659-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disasters are causing high losses worldwide. To adequately deal with this loss potential, a reinsurer has to quantitatively assess the individual risks of natural catastrophes and how these risks are changing over time with respect to climate change. From a reinsurance perspective, the most pressing scientific challenges related to natural hazards are addressed, and broad changes are suggested that should be achieved by the scientific community to address these hazards in the future.
Jussi Leinonen, Ulrich Hamann, Urs Germann, and John R. Mecikalski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 577–597, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-577-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-577-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the usefulness of different data sources and variables to the short-term prediction (
nowcasting) of severe thunderstorms using machine learning. Machine-learning models are trained with data from weather radars, satellite images, lightning detection and weather forecasts and with terrain elevation data. We analyze the benefits provided by each of the data sources to predicting hazards (heavy precipitation, lightning and hail) caused by the thunderstorms.
Rubina Ansari and Giovanna Grossi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 287–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-287-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The current research investigated spatio-temporal evolution of wet–dry events collectively, their characteristics, and their transition (wet to dry and dry to wet) across the Upper Jhelum Basin using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration (SPEI) at a monthly timescale. The results provide significant knowledge to identify and locate most vulnerable geographical hotspots of extreme events, providing the basis for more effective risk reduction and climate change adaptation plans.
Cited articles
Andrade, C., Leite, S. M., and Santos, J. A.: Temperature extremes in Europe: overview of their driving atmospheric patterns, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1671–1691, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1671-2012, 2012.
Barriopedro, D., Fischer, E. M., Luterbacher, J., Trigo, R. M., and Garcia-Herrera, R.: The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe, Science, 332, 220–224, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201224, 2011.
Beniston, M., Stephenson, D. B., Christensen, O. B., Ferro, C. A. T., Frei, C., Goyette, S., Halsnaes, K., Holt, T., Jylhä, K., Koffi, B., Palutikof, J., Schöll, R., Semmler, T., and Woth, K.: Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections, Climatic Change, 81, 71–95, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9226-z, 2007.
Bieli, M., Pfahl, S., and Wernli, H.: A Lagrangian investigation of hot and cold temperature extremes in Europe, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., online first, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2339, 2014.
Buehler, T., Raible, C. C., and Stocker, T. F.: The relationship of winter season North Atlantic blocking frequencies to extreme cold or dry spells in the ERA-40, Tellus A, 63, 212–222, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00492.x, 2011.
Carril, A. F., Gualdi, S., Cherchi, A., and Navarra, A.: Heatwaves in Europe: areas of homogeneous variability and links with the regional to large-scale atmospheric and SSTs anomalies, Clim. Dynam., 30, 77–98, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0274-5, 2008.
Cassou, C., Terray, L., and Phillips, A. S.: Tropical Atlantic influence on European heat waves, J. Climate, 18, 2805–2811, 2005.
Cattiaux, J., Vautard, R., Cassou, C., Yiou, P., Masson-Delmotte, V., and Codron, F.: Winter 2010 in Europe: a cold extreme in a warming climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044613, 2010.
Cattiaux, J., Yiou, P., and Vautard, R.: Dynamics of future seasonal temperature trends and extremes in Europe: a multi-model analysis from CMIP3, Clim. Dynam., 38, 1949–1964, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1211-1, 2012.
Catto, J. L. and Pfahl, S.: The importance of fronts for extreme precipitation, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 10791–10801, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50852, 2013.
Chang, E. K. M.: CMIP5 projection of significant reduction in extratropical cyclone activity over North America, J. Climate, 26, 9903–9922, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00209.1, 2013.
Croci-Maspoli, M., Schwierz, C., and Davies, H. C.: A multifaceted climatology of atmospheric blocking and its recent linear trend, J. Climate, 20, 633–649, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4029.1, 2007a.
Croci-Maspoli, M., Schwierz, C., and Davies, H. C.: Atmospheric blocking: space-time links to the NAO and PNA, Clim. Dynam., 29, 713–725, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0259-4, 2007b.
Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., Holm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kallberg, P., Koehler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, A. P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J.-J., Park, B.-K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Thepaut, J.-N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
Della-Marta, P. M., Luterbacher, J., von Weissenfluh, H., Xoplaki, E., Brunet, M., and Wanner, H.: Summer heat waves over western Europe 1880–2003, their relationship to large-scale forcings and predictability, Clim. Dynam., 29, 251–275, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0233-1, 2007.
Della-Marta, P. M., Mathis, H., Frei, C., Liniger, M. A., Kleinn, J., and Appenzeller, C.: The return period of wind storms over Europe, Int. J. Climatol., 29, 437–459, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1794, 2009.
Donat, M. G., Leckebusch, G. C., Pinto, J. G., and Ulbrich, U.: Examination of wind storms over Central Europe with respect to circulation weather types and NAO phases, J. Climate, 24, 1950–1964, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3224.1, 2011.
Fischer, E. M., Seneviratne, S. I., Lüthi, D., and Schär, C.: Contribution of land–atmosphere coupling to recent European summer heat waves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06707, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL029068, 2007.
Grams, C. M., Binder, H., Pfahl, S., Piaget, N., and Wernli, H.: Atmospheric processes triggering the Central European floods in June 2013, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 427–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-427-2014, 2014.
Grazzini, F.: Predictability of a large-scale flow conducive to extreme precipitation over the western Alps, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 95, 123–138, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-006-0205-8, 2007.
Grisogono, B. and Belusic, D.: A review of recent advances in understanding the meso- and microscale properties of the severe Bora wind, Tellus A, 61, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00369.x, 2009.
Hanley, J. and Caballero, R.: The role of large-scale atmospheric flow and Rossby wave breaking in the evolution of extreme windstorms over Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L21708, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053408, 2012.
Houze Jr., R. A.: Orographic effects on precipitating clouds, Rev. Geophys., 50, RG1001, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011RG000365, 2012.
Jacobeit, J., Rathmann, J., Philipp, A., and Jones, P. D.: Central European precipitation and temperature extremes in relation to large-scale atmospheric circulation types, Meteorol. Z., 18, 397–410, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2009/0390, 2009.
Jansa, A., Genoves, A., Picornell, M. A., Campins, J., Riosalido, R., and Carretero, O.: Western Mediterranean cyclones and heavy rain, Part 2: Statistical approach, Meteorol. Appl., 8, 43–56, 2001.
Joyce, R. J., Janowiak, J. E., Arkin, P. A., and Xie, P.: CMORPH: A method that produces global precipitation estimates from passive microwave and infrared data at high spatial and temporal resolution, J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 487–503, 2004.
Kenyon, J. and Hegerl, G. C.: Influence of modes of climate variability on global precipitation extremes, J. Climate, 23, 6248–6262, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3617.1, 2010.
Leckebusch, G. C. and Ulbrich, U.: On the relationship between cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change, Glob. Planet. Change, 44, 181–193, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.011, 2004.
Leckebusch, G. C., Weimer, A., Pinto, J. G., Reyers, M., and Speth, P.: Extreme wind storms over Europe in present and future climate: a cluster analysis approach, Meteorol. Z., 17, 67–82, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0266, 2008.
Liberato, M. L. R., Pinto, J. G., Trigo, I. F., and Trigo, T. M.: Klaus – an exceptional winter storm over northern Iberia and southern France, Weather, 66, 330–334, 2011.
Maraun, D., Osborn, T. J., and Rust, H. W.: The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes, Part I: Observed spatio-temporal relationships, Clim. Dynam., 36, 261–275, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0710-9, 2011.
Martius, O., Zenklusen, E., Schwierz, C., and Davies, H. C.: Episodes of Alpine heavy precipitation with an overlying elongated stratospheric intrusion: a climatology, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 1149–1164, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1295, 2006.
Martius, O., Schwierz, C., and Davies, H. C.: Far-upstream precursors of heavy precipitation events on the Alpine south-side, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 417–428, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.229, 2008.
Masato, G., Hoskins, B. J., and Woolings, T.: Winter and summer Northern Hemisphere blocking in CMIP5 models, J. Climate, 26, 7044–7059, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00466.1, 2013.
Nissen, K. M., Leckebusch, G. C., Pinto, J. G., Renggli, D., Ulbrich, S., and Ulbrich, U.: Cyclones causing wind storms in the Mediterranean: characteristics, trends and links to large-scale patterns, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 1379–1391, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1379-2010, 2010.
Pfahl, S. and Wernli, H.: Quantifying the relevance of cyclones for precipitation extremes, J. Climate, 25, 6770–6780, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00705.1, 2012a.
Pfahl, S. and Wernli, H.: Spatial coherency of extreme weather events in Germany and Switzerland, Int. J. Climatol., 32, 1863–1874, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2401, 2012b.
Pfahl, S. and Wernli, H.: Quantifying the relevance of atmospheric blocking for co-located temperature extremes in the Northern Hemisphere on (sub-)daily time scales, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L12807, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052261, 2012c.
Pfahl, S., Sirocko, F., Seelos, K., Dietrich, S., Walter, A., and Wernli, H.: A new windstorm proxy from lake sediments – a comparison of geological and meteorological data from western Germany for the period 1965–2001, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D18106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011643, 2009.
Pfahl, S., Madonna, E., Boettcher, M., Joos, H., and Wernli, H.: Warm conveyor belts in the ERA-Interim data set (1979–2010). Part II: Moisture origin and relevance for precipitation, J. Climate, 27, 27–40, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00223.1, 2014.
Pinto, J. G., Ulbrich, S., Parodi, A., Rudari, R., Boni, G., and Ulbrich, U.: Identification and ranking of extraordinary rainfall events over Northwest Italy: The role of Atlantic moisture, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50179, 2013.
Quesada, B., Vautard, R., Yiou, P., Hirschi, M., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs, Nature Clim. Change, 2, 736–741, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1536, 2012.
R Development Core Team: R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, available at: http://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 1 March 2013), ISBN 3-900051-07-0, 2013.
Reale, M. and Lionello, P.: Synoptic climatology of winter intense precipitation events along the Mediterranean coasts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1707–1722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1707-2013, 2013.
Rodriguez-Puebla, C., Encinas, A. H., Garcia-Casado, L. A., and Nieto, S.: Trends in warm days and cold nights over the Iberian Peninsula: relationships to large-scale variables, Clim. Change, 100, 667–684, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9721-0, 2010.
Santos, J. and Corte-Real, J.: Temperature extremes in Europe and wintertime large-scale atmospheric circulation: HadCM3 future scenarios, Clim. Res., 31, 3–18, 2006.
Scaife, A. A., Folland, C. K., Alexander, L. V., Moberg, A., and Knight, J. R.: European climate extremes and the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Climate, 21, 72–83, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1631.1, 2008.
Schär, C., Vidale, P. L., Luthi, D., Frei, C., Haberli, C., Liniger, M. A., and Appenzeller, C.: The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves, Nature, 427, 332–336, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02300, 2004.
Schwierz, C., Croci-Maspoli, M., and Davies, H. C.: Prespicacious indicators of atmospheric blocking, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L06125, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL019341, 2004.
Seneviratne, S. I., Corti, T., Davin, E. L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E. B., Lehner, I., Orlowsky, B., and Teuling, A. J.: Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: a review, Earth-Sci. Rev., 99, 125–161, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004, 2010.
Sillmann, J. and Croci-Maspoli, M.: Present and future atmospheric blocking and its impact on European mean and extreme climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L10702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL038259, 2009.
Sillmann, J., Croci-Maspoli, M., Kallache, M., and Katz, R. W.: Extreme cold winter temperatures in Europe under the influence of North Atlantic atmospheric blocking, J. Climate, 24, 5899–5913, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4075.1, 2011.
Sisson, P. A. and Gyakum, J. R.: Synoptic-scale precursors to significant cold-season precipitation events in Burlington, Vermont, Weather Forecast., 19, 841–854, 2004.
Stefanon, M., D'Andrea, F., and Drobinski, P.: Heatwave classification over Europe and the Mediterranean region, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 014023, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014023, 2012.
Toreti, A., Xoplaki, E., Maraun, D., Kuglitsch, F. G., Wanner, H., and Luterbacher, J.: Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 1037–1050, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1037-2010, 2010.
Ulbrich, U., Brücher, T., Fink, A. H., Leckebusch, G. C., Krüger, A., and Pinto, J. G.: The central European floods of August 2002: Part 1 – rainfall periods and flood development, Weather, 58, 371–377, 2003a.
Ulbrich, U., Brücher, T., Fink, A. H., Leckebusch, G. C., Krüger, A., and Pinto, J. G.: The central European floods of August 2002: Part 2 – synoptic causes and considerations with respect to climatic change, Weather, 58, 434–442, 2003b.
Ulbrich, U., Leckebusch, G. C., and Pinto, J. G.: Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 96, 117–131, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-008-0083-8, 2010.
Van Bebber, W. J.: Die Zugstrassen der barometrischen Minima nach den Bahnenkarten der Deutschen Seewarte für den Zeitraum 1875–1890, Meteorol. Z., 8, 361–366, 1891.
Vautard, R., Yiou, P., D'Andrea, F., de Noblet, N., Viovy, N., Cassou, C., Polcher, J., Ciais, P., Kageyama, M., and Fan, Y.: Summertime European heat and drought waves induced by wintertime Mediterranean rainfall deficit, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L07711, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL028001, 2007.
Wernli, H. and Schwierz, C.: Surface cyclones in the ERA-40 dataset (1958–2001). Part I: Novel identification method and global climatology, J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 2486–2507, 2006.
Wernli, H., Dirren, S., Liniger, M. A., and Zillig, M.: Dynamical aspects of the life cycle of the winter storm "Lothar" (24–26 December 1999), Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 128, 405–429, 2002.
Yiou, P. and Nogaj, M.: Extreme climatic events and weather regimes over the North Atlantic: when and where?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L07202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL019119, 2004.
Zampieri, M., D'Andrea, F., Vautard, R., Ciais, P., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., and Yiou, P.: Hot European summers and the role of soil moisture in the propagation of Mediterranean drought, J. Climate, 22, 4747–4758, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2568.1, 2009.
Zängl, G.: Interaction between dynamics and cloud microphysics in orographics precipitation enhancement: a high-resolution modeling study of two north Alpine heavy precipitation events, Mon. Weather Rev., 135, 2817–2840, 2007.
Zhang, X., Lu, C., and Guan, Z.: Weakened cyclones, intensified anticyclones and recent extreme cold winter weather events in Eurasia, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044044, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044044, 2012.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint