In this paper we propose a methodology to mitigate hazard in a natural environment in an urbanized context. The deformation of the ground is a precursor of paroxysms in mud volcanoes. Therefore, through the analysis of the deformation supported by a statistical approach, this methodology was tested to reduce the hazard around the mud volcano. In the future, the goal is that this dangerous area will become both a naturalistic heritage and a source of development for the community of the area.

In this paper we provide new and original data which show the deformation behaviour close to the seismogenic segment of the Mt Vettore normal fault system during co-seismic deformation (30 October 2016 M_w  = 5.9. This foresight allowed us to record the second (strongest) event (M_w  = 6.5) of 30 October 2016. We identified the specific fault zone that was most vulnerable to future seismic events just north of the fault segment that reactivated on 24 August.