Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-80
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-80

  25 May 2021

25 May 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Assessment of Flood Susceptibility Using Support Vector Machine in the Belt and Road Region

Jun Liu1, Junnan Xiong1,2, Weiming Cheng2,3, Yi Li4, Yifan Cao1, Yufeng He1, Yu Duan1, Wen He1, and Gang Yang1 Jun Liu et al.
  • 1School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, 640500, China
  • 2State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing,100101, China
  • 3University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • 4Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100094, China

Abstract. Floods have occurred frequently all over the world. During 2000–2020, nearly half (44.9 %) of global floods occurred in the Belt and Road region because of its complex geology, topography, and climate. However, the degree of flood susceptibility of each sub-region and country in the Belt and Road region remains unclear. Here, based on 11 flood condition factors, the support vector machine (SVM) model was used to generate a flood susceptibility map. Then, we introduced the flood susceptibility comprehensive index (FSCI) for the first time to quantify the flood susceptibility levels of the sub-regions and countries in the Belt and Road region. The results reveal the following. (1) The SVM model used in this study has an excellent accuracy, and the AUC values of the success-rate curve and prediction-rate curve were higher than 0.9 (0.917 and 0.934 respectively). (2) The areas with the highest and high flood susceptibility account for 12.22 % and 9.57 % of the total study area respectively, and these areas are mainly located in the southeastern part of Eastern Asia, almost the entirely of Southeast Asia and South Asia. (3) Of the seven sub-regions in the Belt and Road region, Southeast Asia is most susceptible to flooding and has the highest FSCI (4.49), followed by South Asia. (4) Of the 66 countries in this region, 16 of the countries have the highest flood susceptibility level (normalized FSCI > 0.8) and 5 countries (normalized FSCI > 0.6) have a high flood susceptibility level. These countries need to pay more attention to flood mitigation and management. The above findings provide useful information for decision-making in flood management in the Belt and Road region. In the future study, higher quality flood points, and climate change factors should be considered.

Jun Liu et al.

Status: open (until 06 Jul 2021)

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  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2021-80', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 May 2021 reply

Jun Liu et al.

Jun Liu et al.

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Short summary
The Belt and Road region has frequent flooding, however, the spatial pattern of flood susceptibility here is not yet clear. To this end, this study used support vector machine to generate a flood susceptibility map of this region based on a novel method of non-flood point selection. More importantly, we introduced the flood susceptibility comprehensive index (FSCI) to quantitatively analyze the flood susceptibility levels of 7 sub-regions and 66 countries in the study area.
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