Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-278
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-278
15 Oct 2019
 | 15 Oct 2019
Status: this discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.

Evidence of preliminary prognosis of appearance of catastrophic earthquake and strong tsunami in the region of Tarapacá, Chile

Raissa K. Mazova, Jorge F. Van Den Bosch, Natalia A. Baranova, and Gustavo A. Oses

Abstract. Are analyzed the catastrophic seismic events near Chilean coast and generated by them tsunami 1 April 2014 to north of Iquique with magnitude 8.2. It is noted that event occurred 1 April 2014 was in fact predicted in work (Mazova and Ramirez 1999), in which there were analyzed all strongest Chilean tsunamigenic earthquakes with sources near the Chilean coast. Analysis of catastrophic earthquakes and tsunamis in given region, localization of source of historical earthquakes and character of generated by them tsunami waves permitted authors in that time to make a conclusion about possibility of repeated catastrophic earthquake and tsunami in near 10–20 years. The events near Iquique and Arica city in April 2014 are in this time period. Thus, the evidences, presented in this work, support preliminary prognosis made by authors in 1999.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Raissa K. Mazova, Jorge F. Van Den Bosch, Natalia A. Baranova, and Gustavo A. Oses
 
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Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Raissa K. Mazova, Jorge F. Van Den Bosch, Natalia A. Baranova, and Gustavo A. Oses
Raissa K. Mazova, Jorge F. Van Den Bosch, Natalia A. Baranova, and Gustavo A. Oses

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Short summary
The 2014 tsunami off the coast of northern Chile are analyzed, knowing that there have been very destructive pan-oceanic tsunamis in the past, It was also forecast in 1999, this tsunami has been simulated taking into account two movements of the seabed, one as a single block and the second as several blocks, as a result it can be seen that the second way of simulating is closer to the measures recorded by tide gauges, also the spectral analysis allowed knowing the characteristics of the flood.
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