09 Jul 2019
 | 09 Jul 2019
Status: this discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.

Case Study: Risk Analysis by Overtopping During an Upstream Landslide in Peñitas Dam, Mexico

Humberto J. F. Marengo and Alvaro A. Aldama

Abstract. Risk and uncertainty analysis by mathematical and statistical methods is often used to assess systematic risks and uncertainties. This research presents the procedure and application of risk and reliability analysis to dam overtopping (Peñitas) located downstream of a natural dam that could have failed. For the analysis are used six statistical variables and their uncertainties, the peak flood of the upstream dam, are evaluated with empirical formulas. The highest water levels of the break dam event were computed using reservoir routing with an explicit equation developed by the authors. Afterward, the overtopping risk analysis of Peñitas Dam was assessed for different stages of excavation of the natural dam that were made during making a sensitivity analysis of duration of dam break event, and also is calculated the possible upper elevation of Peñitas dam, finding that is a recommended practice measurement in similar further cases. A methodology to do an orderly and consistently analysis of risk is proposed to solve similar situations.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Humberto J. F. Marengo and Alvaro A. Aldama
Humberto J. F. Marengo and Alvaro A. Aldama
Humberto J. F. Marengo and Alvaro A. Aldama


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Short summary
In this paper is made a risk analysis by overtopping of existing Peñitas dam that could be caused by a flood produced by the failure of an upstream natural dam product of a landslide: is showed a real case and its solution; innovative mathematical approach analysis is presented. Risk model analysis developed is applicable to similar cases could happen in any site of the world. Uncertainty analysis of variables that have their own hypotheses, limitations, advantages and disadvantages is made.