Status: this discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.
Accuracy assessment of real-time flood forecasting of coupled hydrological and mesoscale meteorological models
Aida Jabbari,Jae-Min So,and Deg-Hyo Bae
Abstract. Hydro-meteorological predictions are important for water management plans, which include providing early flood warnings and preventing flood damages. This study evaluates the real-time precipitation of an atmospheric model at the point and catchment scales to select the proper hydrological model to couple with the atmospheric model. Furthermore, a variety of tests were conducted to quantify the accuracy assessments of coupled models to provide details on the maximum spatial and temporal resolutions and lead times in a real-time forecasting system. As a major limitation of previous studies, the temporal and spatial resolutions of the hydrological model are smaller than those of the meteorological model. Here, through ultra-fine scale of temporal (10 min) and spatial resolution (1 km × 1 km), we determined the optimal resolution. A numerical weather prediction model and a rainfall runoff model were employed to evaluate real-time flood forecasting for the Imjin River (South and North Korea). The comparison of the forecasted precipitation and the observed precipitation indicated that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model underestimated precipitation. The skill of the model was relatively higher for the catchment than for the point scale, as illustrated by the lower RMSE value, which is important for a semi-distributed hydrological model. The variations in temporal and spatial resolutions illustrated a decrease in accuracy; additionally, the optimal spatial resolution obtained at 8 km and the temporal resolution did not affect the inherent inaccuracy of the results. Lead time variation demonstrated that lead time dependency was almost negligible below 36 h. With reference to our case study, comparisons of model performance provided quantitative knowledge for understanding the credibility and restrictions of hydro-meteorological models.
How to cite. Jabbari, A., So, J.-M., and Bae, D.-H.: Accuracy assessment of real-time flood forecasting of coupled hydrological and mesoscale meteorological models, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-447, 2018.
Received: 20 Dec 2017 – Discussion started: 30 Jan 2018
In accuracy assessment of the hydro-meteorological models, the capability of the WRF model is evaluated for producing the real-time flood forecasting in Imjin basin. The variation of the spatial and temporal resolution and forecast lead time and their effects on the flood forecasting are quantified in this study. moreover the precipitation assessment for the point and catchment scale had higher accuracy for the catchment scale however the precipitation is underestimated for all the events.
In accuracy assessment of the hydro-meteorological models, the capability of the WRF model is...