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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-100
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-100
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  15 Mar 2017

15 Mar 2017

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This preprint has been withdrawn by the authors.

Exposure to Floods, Climate Change, and Poverty in Vietnam

Mook Bangalore1,2, Andrew Smith3, and Ted Veldkamp4 Mook Bangalore et al.
  • 1Grantham Research Institute and Department of Geography and Environment, London School of Economics London, UK, WC2A 2AE
  • 2World Bank, Washington, DC, USA
  • 3SSBN Ltd, Bristol, UK
  • 4Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam

Abstract. With 70 percent of its population living in coastal areas and low-lying deltas, Vietnam is highly exposed to riverine and coastal flooding. This paper examines the exposure of the population and poor people in particular to current and future flooding in Vietnam and specifically in Ho Chi Minh City, using new high-resolution flood hazard maps and spatial socioeconomic data. The national-level analysis finds that a third of today’s population is already exposed to a flood, which occurs once every 25 years, assuming no protection. For the same return period flood under current socioeconomic conditions, climate change may increase the number exposed to 38 to 46 percent of the population. Climate change impacts can make frequent events as important as rare ones: the estimates suggest a 25-year flood under future conditions can expose more people than a 200-year flood under current conditions. Although poor districts are not found to be more exposed to floods at the national level, the city-level analysis of Ho Chi Minh City provides evidence that slum areas are highly exposed. The results of this paper show the benefits of investing today in flood risk management, and can provide guidance as to where future investments may be targeted.

This preprint has been withdrawn.

Mook Bangalore et al.

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Mook Bangalore et al.

Mook Bangalore et al.

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Short summary
This paper examines the exposure to current and future flooding in Vietnam and in Ho Chi Minh City, using new high-resolution flood hazard maps and spatial socioeconomic data on poverty. While floods already expose a third of the population today, climate change impacts may increase exposure by more than 20 %, with significant implications for poor households in urban areas. This paper provides implications regarding infrastructure development, land use planning, and strategies to manage floods.
This paper examines the exposure to current and future flooding in Vietnam and in Ho Chi Minh...
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