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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-94
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-94
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  26 May 2016

26 May 2016

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.

Empirical Study on Drought Adaptation of Regional Rainfed Agriculture in China

Zhiqiang Wang1, Qing Ma2, Siyu Chen2, Lan Deng1, and Jingyi Jiang2 Zhiqiang Wang et al.
  • 1National Disaster Reduction Center/Satellite Application Center for Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, Beijing 100124, China
  • 2College of Geography and Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Abstract. As global surface temperature continues to rise, increasing evidences have shown that social and natural systems are deeply influenced by climate change. The government and farmers' awareness, as well as measures to adapt to these climate-driven changes, are critical for local sustainable development. In this study, we established a conceptual model of the relationship among human adaptation, development demand and environment changes to analyze the mechanism of agricultural drought adaptation based on an empirical research at the famer and government level. These results show that under the impact of climate change, the study area of drought risk has continued to expand. With this condition, the government and farmers have constantly taken measures to control the development demand and adjust to environmental changes in order to adapt to agricultural drought. Interactions among environmental changes, development demand and adaptation measures have kept the regional nature-society-economy compound ecosystem in dynamic balance. In addition, the effect of these adaptation measures always has an inertia that may induce a longer and deeper impact on the region, which is considered when making adaptation strategies. Rainfed areas are considered to be the most sensitive and unstable to environment change. This study reveals the mechanism of adaptation from a macroscopic perspective and may provide some references on measures and strategies for drought adaptation in other rainfed areas.

Zhiqiang Wang et al.

Zhiqiang Wang et al.

Zhiqiang Wang et al.

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Short summary
With global warming, the risk of agricultural drought is increasing. Through the empirical analysis of this paper, it found that farmers and the government always spontaneously adjust their development demands and take measures to adapt to environmental change, thus a dynamic agricultural drought adaptation model with the regional characteristics was formed in the area. Agricultural drought risk (R) is the function of environment (E), demand (D) and adaptation (A), or R = f (E, D, A).
With global warming, the risk of agricultural drought is increasing. Through the empirical...
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