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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-393
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2016-393
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  27 Mar 2017

27 Mar 2017

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This preprint has been withdrawn by the authors.

Model sensitivity for the prediction of extreme sea level events at a wide and fast-flowing estuary: the case of the Río de la Plata

Matías G. Dinapoli1,2, Claudia G. Simionato1,2, and Diego Moreira1,2,3 Matías G. Dinapoli et al.
  • 1Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET-UBA)
  • 2Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos (UMI IFAECI/CNRS-CONICET-UBA)
  • 3Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, FCEN, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina

Abstract. A parameter sensitivity analysis for a pre-operational 2-D barotropic application of the ROMS_AGRIF ocean model for the forecast of sea surface height (SSH) and currents at the South-Western South Atlantic Continental Shelf with emphasis in the Río de la Plata Estuary is presented. Particularly, the interest is on the simulation of extreme storm surges generated by persistent and strong southeasterly winds (Sudestadas) which produce strong floods. Atmospheric models show deficiencies in the forecast of winds during those events. Therefore, linear and quadratic bottom friction, wind speed and direction, and runoff were considered in the sensitivity analysis. The analysis yields to a hierarchy of the impacts of them on the simulated SSH. The most important, with non-linearity in the model response, is wind speed. It is followed by the quadratic bottom friction and the runoff, which responses are more linear, and present a regional dependence. Runoff has a larger impact than friction in the upper estuary, which decreases downstream. Non-linearity of wind speed is mainly due to the parametrization of the stress tensor, whereas the interaction with the runoff is not relevant in spite of the huge discharge of this particular estuary. This information allows an optimal calibration of the model with a minimum number of simulations.

This preprint has been withdrawn.

Matías G. Dinapoli et al.

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Matías G. Dinapoli et al.

Matías G. Dinapoli et al.

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Short summary
The Río de la Plata Estuary (ubicated at South-Western South Atlantic Continental Shelf) presents extreme storm surges generated by persistent and strong southeasterly winds (Sudestadas) which has historically caused catastrophic floods. A sensitivity analysis of the many inputs parameter was made for a 2-D barotropic application of the ROMS_AGRIF ocean model. As a result, the most important input is wind speed. That suggests that should make focus in a better regional wind speed calibration.
The Río de la Plata Estuary (ubicated at South-Western South Atlantic Continental Shelf)...
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