Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-1857-2013
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-1-1857-2013
14 May 2013
 | 14 May 2013
Status: this preprint was under review for the journal NHESS but the revision was not accepted.

Safe-economical route and its assessment model of a ship to avoid tropical cyclones using dynamic forecast environment

L. C. Wu, Y. Q. Wen, and D. Y. Wu

Abstract. In heavy sea conditions related to tropical cyclones (TCs), losses to shipping caused by capsizing are greater than other kinds of accidents. Therefore, it is important to consider capsizing risk in the algorithms used to generate safe-economic routes that avoid tropical cyclones (RATC). A safe-economic routing and assessment model for RATC, based on a dynamic forecasting environment, is presented in this paper. In the proposed model, a ship's risk is quantified using its capsizing probability caused by heavy wave conditions. Forecasting errors in the numerical models are considered according to their distribution characteristics. A case study shows that: the economic cost of RATCs is associated not only to the ship's speed and the acceptable risk level, but also to the ship's wind and wave resistance. Case study results demonstrate that the optimal routes obtained from the model proposed in this paper are significantly superior to those produced by traditional methods.

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L. C. Wu, Y. Q. Wen, and D. Y. Wu
 
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
L. C. Wu, Y. Q. Wen, and D. Y. Wu
L. C. Wu, Y. Q. Wen, and D. Y. Wu

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