Winter storm risk of residential structures – model development and application to the German state of Baden-Württemberg

Abstract. The derivation of probabilities of high wind speeds and the establishment of risk curves for storm damage is of prime importance in natural hazard risk analysis. Risk curves allow the assessment of damage being exceeded at a given level of probability.

In this paper, a method for the assessment of winter storm damage risk is described in detail and applied to the German state of Baden-Württemberg. Based on meteorological observations of the years 1971–2000 and on damage information of 4 severe storm events, storm hazard and damage risk of residential buildings is calculated on the level of communities. For this purpose, highly resolved simulations of storm wind fields with the Karlsruher Atmospheric Mesoscale Model (KAMM) are performed and a storm damage model is developed.

Risk curves including the quantification of the uncertainties are calculated for every community. Local differences of hazard and risk are presented in state-wide maps. An average annual winter storm damage to residential buildings of minimum 15 million Euro (reference year 2000) for Baden-Württemberg is expected.