Time independent seismic hazard analysis of Greece deduced from Bayesian statistics

Abstract. A Bayesian statistics approach is applied in the seismogenic sources of Greece and the surrounding area in order to assess seismic hazard, assuming that the earthquake occurrence follows the Poisson process. The Bayesian approach applied supplies the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude of M_s = 6.0 will be exceeded in time intervals of 10, 20 and 75 years. We also produced graphs which present the different seismic hazard in the seismogenic sources examined in terms of varying probability which is useful for engineering and civil protection purposes, allowing the designation of priority sources for earthquake-resistant design. It is shown that within the above time intervals the seismogenic source (4) called Igoumenitsa (in NW Greece and west Albania) has the highest probability to experience an earthquake with magnitude M > 6.0. High probabilities are found also for Ochrida (source 22), Samos (source 53) and Chios (source 56).