Articles | Volume 25, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Feb 2025
Research article |
| 13 Feb 2025
| 13 Feb 2025
Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geoambientali, University of Bari Aldo Moro, Bari, Italy
The Lyell Centre, British Geological Survey, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Giovanni Chiodini
Sezione di Bologna, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy
Antonio Costa
Sezione di Bologna, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy
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Pierfrancesco Dellino, Fabio Dioguardi, Roberto Sulpizio, and Daniela Mele
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2971, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2971, 2024
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Pyroclastic deposits are the only records left by pyroclastic flows at Vesuvius, deposits from past eruptions are the only way to get hints about the expected range of impact parameters. It is necessary to investigate the deposits first, then define a general model of the current that links deposit characteristics to flow dynamics, and finally reconstruct the impact parameters that better represent flow intensity in terms of damaging potential. This is the way the paper is organized.
Pierfrancesco Dellino, Fabio Dioguardi, Roberto Sulpizio, and Daniela Mele
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2971, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2971, 2024
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Pyroclastic deposits are the only records left by pyroclastic flows at Vesuvius, deposits from past eruptions are the only way to get hints about the expected range of impact parameters. It is necessary to investigate the deposits first, then define a general model of the current that links deposit characteristics to flow dynamics, and finally reconstruct the impact parameters that better represent flow intensity in terms of damaging potential. This is the way the paper is organized.
Laura Sandri, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Antonio Costa, Mauro Antonio Di Vito, Ilaria Rucco, Domenico Maria Doronzo, Marina Bisson, Roberto Gianardi, Sandro de Vita, and Roberto Sulpizio
Solid Earth, 15, 459–476, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-459-2024, 2024
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We study the lahar hazard due to the remobilization of tephra deposits from reference eruptions at Somma–Vesuvius. To this end, we rely on the results of two companion papers dealing with field data and model calibration and run hundreds of simulations from the catchments around the target area to capture the uncertainty in the initial parameters. We process the simulations to draw maps of the probability of overcoming thresholds in lahar flow thickness and dynamic pressure relevant for risk.
Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Antonio Costa, Mauro A. Di Vito, Laura Sandri, and Domenico M. Doronzo
Solid Earth, 15, 437–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-437-2024, 2024
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We present a numerical model for lahars generated by the mobilization of tephra deposits from a reference size eruption at Somma–Vesuvius. The paper presents the model (pyhsics and numerics) and a sensitivity analysis of the processes modelled, numerical schemes, and grid resolution. This work provides the basis for application to hazard quantification for lahars in the Vesuvius area. To this end, we rely on results of the two companion papers (Part 1 on field data, Part 3 on hazard maps).
Mauro Antonio Di Vito, Ilaria Rucco, Sandro de Vita, Domenico Maria Doronzo, Marina Bisson, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Mauro Rosi, Laura Sandri, Giovanni Zanchetta, Elena Zanella, and Antonio Costa
Solid Earth, 15, 405–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-405-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-405-2024, 2024
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We study the distribution of two historical pyroclastic fall–flow and lahar deposits from the sub-Plinian Vesuvius eruptions of 472 CE Pollena and 1631. The motivation comes directly from the widely distributed impact that both the eruptions and lahar phenomena had on the Campanian territory, not only around the volcano but also down the nearby Apennine valleys. Data on about 500 stratigraphic sections and modeling allowed us to evaluate the physical and dynamical impact of these phenomena.
Leonardo Mingari, Antonio Costa, Giovanni Macedonio, and Arnau Folch
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3459–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3459-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3459-2023, 2023
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Two novel techniques for ensemble-based data assimilation, suitable for semi-positive-definite variables with highly skewed uncertainty distributions such as tephra deposit mass loading, are applied to reconstruct the tephra fallout deposit resulting from the 2015 Calbuco eruption in Chile. The deposit spatial distribution and the ashfall volume according to the analyses are in good agreement with estimations based on field measurements and isopach maps reported in previous studies.
Silvia Massaro, Manuel Stocchi, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Laura Sandri, Jacopo Selva, Roberto Sulpizio, Biagio Giaccio, Massimiliano Moscatelli, Edoardo Peronace, Marco Nocentini, Roberto Isaia, Manuel Titos Luzón, Pierfrancesco Dellino, Giuseppe Naso, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2289–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, 2023
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A new methodology to calculate a probabilistic long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the Neapolitan volcanoes is provided. By means of thousands of numerical simulations we quantify the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds critical thresholds in 50 years. The output hazard maps account for changes in eruptive regimes of each volcano and are also comparable with those of other natural disasters in which more sources are integrated.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Willy Aspinall, Antonio Costa, Sue Mahony, Augusto Neri, Stephen Sparks, and Brittain Hill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3329–3348, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, 2022
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We evaluate through first-order kinetic energy models, the minimum volume and mass of a pyroclastic density current generated at the Aso caldera that might affect any of five distal infrastructure sites. These target sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions. Our constraints of volume and mass are then compared with the scale of Aso-4, the largest caldera-forming eruption of Aso.
Leonardo Mingari, Arnau Folch, Andrew T. Prata, Federica Pardini, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 1773–1792, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1773-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1773-2022, 2022
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We present a new implementation of an ensemble-based data assimilation method to improve forecasting of volcanic aerosols. This system can be efficiently integrated into operational workflows by exploiting high-performance computing resources. We found a dramatic improvement of forecast quality when satellite retrievals are continuously assimilated. Management of volcanic risk and reduction of aviation impacts can strongly benefit from this research.
Manuel Titos, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Sara Barsotti, Laura Sandri, Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, 2022
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This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
Andrew T. Prata, Leonardo Mingari, Arnau Folch, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 409–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-409-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-409-2021, 2021
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This paper presents FALL3D-8.0, the latest version release of an open-source code with a track record of 15+ years and a growing number of users in the volcanological and atmospheric communities. The code, originally conceived for atmospheric dispersal and deposition of tephra particles, has been extended to model other types of particles, aerosols and radionuclides. This paper details new model applications and validation of FALL3D-8.0 using satellite, ground-deposit load and radionuclide data.
Silvia Massaro, Roberto Sulpizio, Gianluca Norini, Gianluca Groppelli, Antonio Costa, Lucia Capra, Giacomo Lo Zupone, Michele Porfido, and Andrea Gabrieli
Solid Earth, 11, 2515–2533, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-2515-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-2515-2020, 2020
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In this work we provide a 2D finite-element modelling of the stress field conditions around the Fuego de Colima volcano (Mexico) in order to test the response of the commercial Linear Static Analysis software to increasingly different geological constraints. Results suggest that an appropriate set of geological and geophysical data improves the mesh generation procedures and the degree of accuracy of numerical outputs, aimed at more reliable physics-based representations of the natural system.
Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Natalia Gutierrez, Mauricio Hanzich, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1431–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1431-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1431-2020, 2020
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This paper presents FALL3D-8.0, the latest version release of an open-source code with a track record of 15+ years and a growing number of users in the volcanological and atmospheric communities. The code, originally conceived for atmospheric dispersal and deposition of tephra particles, has been extended to model other types of particles, aerosols and radionuclides. This paper details the FALL3D-8.0 model physics and the numerical implementation of the code.
Silvia Massaro, Antonio Costa, Roberto Sulpizio, Diego Coppola, and Lucia Capra
Solid Earth, 10, 1429–1450, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1429-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1429-2019, 2019
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The Fuego de Colima volcano (Mexico) shows a complex eruptive history, with periods of rapid and slow lava dome growth punctuated by explosive activity. Here we reconstructed the 1998–2018 average discharge rate by means of satellite thermal data and the literature. Using spectral and wavelet analysis, we found a multi-term cyclic behavior that is in good agreement with numerical modeling, accounting for a variable magmatic feeding system composed of a single or double magma chamber system.
Matthieu Poret, Stefano Corradini, Luca Merucci, Antonio Costa, Daniele Andronico, Mario Montopoli, Gianfranco Vulpiani, and Valentin Freret-Lorgeril
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 4695–4714, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4695-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-4695-2018, 2018
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This study aims at proposing a method to better assess the initial magma fragmentation produced during explosive volcanic eruptions. We worked on merging field, radar, and satellite data to estimate the total grain-size distribution, which is used within simulations to reconstruct the tephra loading and far-travelling airborne ash dispersal. This approach is applied to 23 November 2013, giving the very fine ash fraction related to volcanic hazards (e.g. air traffic safety).
Arnau Folch, Jordi Barcons, Tomofumi Kozono, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 861–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, 2017
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Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behavior, potentially leading to inaccurate model results if not captured by coarser-scale simulations. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterization and validate it using, as a test case, the CO2 gas dispersal from 1986 Lake Nyos eruption.
A. Folch, A. Costa, and G. Macedonio
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 431–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-431-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-431-2016, 2016
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We present FPLUME-1.0, a steady-state 1-D cross-section-averaged eruption column model based on the buoyant plume theory (BPT). The model accounts for plume bending by wind, entrainment of ambient moisture, effects of water phase changes, particle fallout and re-entrainment, a new parameterization for the air entrainment coefficients and a model for wet aggregation of ash particles in presence of liquid water or ice.
R. Tonini, L. Sandri, A. Costa, and J. Selva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 409–415, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-409-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-409-2015, 2015
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Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
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A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
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We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
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High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2566, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2566, 2024
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We explored the possibility of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Adding mixtures of 3 to 5 amendment types substantially increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion and increased microorganism abundance, while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
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Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
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Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
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What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
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The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
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EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
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We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
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This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
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To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
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Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
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This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
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The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1742, 2024
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Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydro-hazard for New Zealand, and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographic setting.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
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Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
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There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
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The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
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We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
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Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
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Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Joseph William Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought impacts on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters in Brazil (CEMADEN). This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
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The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
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This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
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The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-903, 2024
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The objective of this study is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a high interannual variability and a decrease over the 1950–2022 period. We further show that the regional atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound events occurence, but do not strongly contributes to the observed decrease.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
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The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
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Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
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We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
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Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
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Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
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How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Gesualdo Chiquito, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, 2024
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The production of food is susceptible to several climate hazards such as droughts, excessive rainfall, and heat waves. In this paper, we present a methodology that uses artificial intelligence for assessing the impact of climate risks on food production. Our methodology helps us to automatically select the most relevant indices and critical thresholds of these indices that when surpassed can increase the danger of crop yield loss.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
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Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
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Short summary
We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area...
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