Articles | Volume 25, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3879-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3879-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Oct 2025
Research article |
| 09 Oct 2025
| 09 Oct 2025
Future intensification of compound and consecutive drought and heatwave risks in Europe
Samuel Jonson Sutanto
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Earth Systems and Global Change Group, Environmental Sciences Department, Wageningen University and Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 3a, 6708PB, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Confidence Duku
Earth Systems and Global Change Group, Environmental Sciences Department, Wageningen University and Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 3a, 6708PB, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Climate Resilience Group, Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Merve Gülveren
Directorate of Climate Change, Ministry of Environment, Urbanization, and Climate Change, Ankara, Turkiye
Rutger Dankers
Climate Resilience Group, Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Spyridon Paparrizos
Earth Systems and Global Change Group, Environmental Sciences Department, Wageningen University and Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 3a, 6708PB, Wageningen, the Netherlands
Related authors
Hossein Maazallahi, Foteini Stavropoulou, Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Michael Steiner, Dominik Brunner, Mariano Mertens, Patrick Jöckel, Antoon Visschedijk, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Stijn Dellaert, Nataly Velandia Salinas, Stefan Schwietzke, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Sorin Ghemulet, Alexandru Pana, Magdalena Ardelean, Marius Corbu, Andreea Calcan, Stephen A. Conley, Mackenzie L. Smith, and Thomas Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1497–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1497-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1497-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents insights from airborne in situ measurements collected during the ROmanian Methane Emissions from Oil and gas (ROMEO) campaign supported by two models. Results reveal Romania's oil and gas methane emissions were significantly under-reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2019. A large underestimation was also found in the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) v7.0 for the study domain in the same year.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Matthijs Janssen, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Maria del Pozo Garcia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without considering wildfires. This study, therefore, evaluates the effect of wildfires on flood risk, considering both current and future conditions for the Ebro River basin in Spain. Results show that extreme climate change increases the risk of flooding, especially when considering the effect of wildfires, highlighting the importance of adopting a multi-hazard risk management approach.
Riccardo Biella, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Marthe Wens, Marleen Lam, Elin Stenfors, Samuel Sutanto, Elena Ridolfi, Serena Ceola, Pedro Alencar, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Monica Ionita, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Scott J. McGrane, Benedetta Moccia, Viorica Nagavciuc, Fabio Russo, Svitlana Krakovska, Andrijana Todorovic, Faranak Tootoonchi, Patricia Trambauer, Raffaele Vignola, and Claudia Teutschbein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights the crucial role of forecasting systems and Drought Management Plans in European drought risk management. Based on a survey of water managers during the 2022 European drought, it underscores the impact of preparedness on response and the evolution of drought management strategies across the continent. The study concludes with a plea for a European Drought Directive.
Riccardo Biella, Ansastasiya Shyrokaya, Monica Ionita, Raffaele Vignola, Samuel Sutanto, Andrijana Todorovic, Claudia Teutschbein, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Pedro Alencar, Alessia Matanó, Elena Ridolfi, Benedetta Moccia, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Anne van Loon, Doris Wendt, Elin Stenfors, Fabio Russo, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Lucy Barker, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Marleen Lam, Monika Bláhová, Patricia Trambauer, Raed Hamed, Scott J. McGrane, Serena Ceola, Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Svitlana Krakovska, Viorica Nagavciuc, Faranak Tootoonchi, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Sandra Hauswirth, Shreedhar Maskey, Svitlana Zubkovych, Marthe Wens, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights gaps in European drought management exposed by the 2022 drought and proposes a new direction. Using a Europe-wide survey of water managers, we examine four areas: increasing drought risk, impacts, drought management strategies, and their evolution. Despite growing risks, management remains fragmented and short-term. However, signs of improvement suggest readiness for change. We advocate for a European Drought Directive.
Mugni Hadi Hariadi, Gerard van der Schrier, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Samuel J. Sutanto, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Dian Nur Ratri, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, and Albert Klein Tank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1935–1956, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We utilize the high-resolution CMIP6 for extreme rainfall and streamflow projection over Southeast Asia. This region will experience an increase in both dry and wet extremes in the near future. We found a more extreme low flow and high flow, along with an increasing probability of low-flow and high-flow events. We reveal that the changes in low-flow events and their probabilities are not only influenced by extremely dry climates but also by the catchment characteristics.
Samuel J. Sutanto and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3991–4023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the differences within streamflow droughts derived using different identification approaches, namely the variable threshold, fixed threshold, and the Standardized Streamflow Index, including an analysis of both historical drought and implications for forecasting. Our results clearly show that streamflow droughts derived from different approaches deviate from each other in terms of drought occurrence, timing, duration, and deficit volume.
Hossein Maazallahi, Foteini Stavropoulou, Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Michael Steiner, Dominik Brunner, Mariano Mertens, Patrick Jöckel, Antoon Visschedijk, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Stijn Dellaert, Nataly Velandia Salinas, Stefan Schwietzke, Daniel Zavala-Araiza, Sorin Ghemulet, Alexandru Pana, Magdalena Ardelean, Marius Corbu, Andreea Calcan, Stephen A. Conley, Mackenzie L. Smith, and Thomas Röckmann
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 1497–1511, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1497-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-1497-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This article presents insights from airborne in situ measurements collected during the ROmanian Methane Emissions from Oil and gas (ROMEO) campaign supported by two models. Results reveal Romania's oil and gas methane emissions were significantly under-reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2019. A large underestimation was also found in the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) v7.0 for the study domain in the same year.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Matthijs Janssen, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Maria del Pozo Garcia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without considering wildfires. This study, therefore, evaluates the effect of wildfires on flood risk, considering both current and future conditions for the Ebro River basin in Spain. Results show that extreme climate change increases the risk of flooding, especially when considering the effect of wildfires, highlighting the importance of adopting a multi-hazard risk management approach.
Riccardo Biella, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Marthe Wens, Marleen Lam, Elin Stenfors, Samuel Sutanto, Elena Ridolfi, Serena Ceola, Pedro Alencar, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Monica Ionita, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Scott J. McGrane, Benedetta Moccia, Viorica Nagavciuc, Fabio Russo, Svitlana Krakovska, Andrijana Todorovic, Faranak Tootoonchi, Patricia Trambauer, Raffaele Vignola, and Claudia Teutschbein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights the crucial role of forecasting systems and Drought Management Plans in European drought risk management. Based on a survey of water managers during the 2022 European drought, it underscores the impact of preparedness on response and the evolution of drought management strategies across the continent. The study concludes with a plea for a European Drought Directive.
Riccardo Biella, Ansastasiya Shyrokaya, Monica Ionita, Raffaele Vignola, Samuel Sutanto, Andrijana Todorovic, Claudia Teutschbein, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Pedro Alencar, Alessia Matanó, Elena Ridolfi, Benedetta Moccia, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Anne van Loon, Doris Wendt, Elin Stenfors, Fabio Russo, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Lucy Barker, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Marleen Lam, Monika Bláhová, Patricia Trambauer, Raed Hamed, Scott J. McGrane, Serena Ceola, Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Svitlana Krakovska, Viorica Nagavciuc, Faranak Tootoonchi, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Sandra Hauswirth, Shreedhar Maskey, Svitlana Zubkovych, Marthe Wens, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights gaps in European drought management exposed by the 2022 drought and proposes a new direction. Using a Europe-wide survey of water managers, we examine four areas: increasing drought risk, impacts, drought management strategies, and their evolution. Despite growing risks, management remains fragmented and short-term. However, signs of improvement suggest readiness for change. We advocate for a European Drought Directive.
Mugni Hadi Hariadi, Gerard van der Schrier, Gert-Jan Steeneveld, Samuel J. Sutanto, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Dian Nur Ratri, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, and Albert Klein Tank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1935–1956, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1935-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We utilize the high-resolution CMIP6 for extreme rainfall and streamflow projection over Southeast Asia. This region will experience an increase in both dry and wet extremes in the near future. We found a more extreme low flow and high flow, along with an increasing probability of low-flow and high-flow events. We reveal that the changes in low-flow events and their probabilities are not only influenced by extremely dry climates but also by the catchment characteristics.
Samuel J. Sutanto and Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3991–4023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the differences within streamflow droughts derived using different identification approaches, namely the variable threshold, fixed threshold, and the Standardized Streamflow Index, including an analysis of both historical drought and implications for forecasting. Our results clearly show that streamflow droughts derived from different approaches deviate from each other in terms of drought occurrence, timing, duration, and deficit volume.
Cited articles
Amengual, A., Homar, V., Romero, R., Brooks, H. E., Ramis, C., Gordaliza, M., and Alonso, S.: Projections of heat waves with high impact on human health in Europe, Global and Planetary Change, 119, 71–84, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.05.006, 2014. a, b, c
Bachmair, S., Kohn, I., and Stahl, K.: Exploring the link between drought indicators and impacts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1381–1397, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1381-2015, 2015. a
Bachmair, S., Svensson, C., Hannaford, J., Barker, L. J., and Stahl, K.: A quantitative analysis to objectively appraise drought indicators and model drought impacts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2589–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2589-2016, 2016. a, b
Bachmair, S., Svensson, C., Prosdocimi, I., Hannaford, J., and Stahl, K.: Developing drought impact functions for drought risk management, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1947–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1947-2017, 2017. a, b
Biella, R., Shyrokaya, A., Ionita, M., Vignola, R., Sutanto, S., Todorovic, A., Teutschbein, C., Cid, D., Llasat, M. C., Alencar, P., Matanó, A., Ridolfi, E., Moccia, B., Pechlivanidis, I., van Loon, A., Wendt, D., Stenfors, E., Russo, F., Vidal, J.-P., Barker, L., de Brito, M. M., Lam, M., Bláhová, M., Trambauer, P., Hamed, R., McGrane, S. J., Ceola, S., Bakke, S. J., Krakovska, S., Nagavciuc, V., Tootoonchi, F., Di Baldassarre, G., Hauswirth, S., Maskey, S., Zubkovych, S., Wens, M., and Tallaksen, L. M.: The 2022 Drought Needs to be a Turning Point for European Drought Risk Management, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, 2024. a, b, c, d
Blauhut, V., Gudmundsson, L., and Stahl, K.: Towards pan-European drought risk maps: quantifying the link between drought indices and reported drought impacts, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 014008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014008, 2015. a
Blauhut, V., Stoelzle, M., Ahopelto, L., Brunner, M. I., Teutschbein, C., Wendt, D. E., Akstinas, V., Bakke, S. J., Barker, L. J., Bartošová, L., Briede, A., Cammalleri, C., Kalin, K. C., De Stefano, L., Fendeková, M., Finger, D. C., Huysmans, M., Ivanov, M., Jaagus, J., Jakubínský, J., Krakovska, S., Laaha, G., Lakatos, M., Manevski, K., Neumann Andersen, M., Nikolova, N., Osuch, M., van Oel, P., Radeva, K., Romanowicz, R. J., Toth, E., Trnka, M., Urošev, M., Urquijo Reguera, J., Sauquet, E., Stevkov, A., Tallaksen, L. M., Trofimova, I., Van Loon, A. F., van Vliet, M. T. H., Vidal, J.-P., Wanders, N., Werner, M., Willems, P., and Živković, N.: Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: a collective need for unifying drought risk management, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022. a
Buras, A., Rammig, A., and Zang, C. S.: Quantifying impacts of the 2018 drought on European ecosystems in comparison to 2003, Biogeosciences, 17, 1655–1672, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1655-2020, 2020. a
Burek, P., Satoh, Y., Kahil, T., Tang, T., Greve, P., Smilovic, M., Guillaumot, L., Zhao, F., and Wada, Y.: Development of the Community Water Model (CWatM v1.04) – a high-resolution hydrological model for global and regional assessment of integrated water resources management, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3267–3298, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3267-2020, 2020. a
Cammalleri, C., Naumann, G., Mentaschi, L., Bisselink, B., Gelati, E., De Roo, A., and Feyen, L.: Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5919–5935, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5919-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d
Chawla, N. V., Bowyer, K. W., Hall, L. O., and Kegelmeyer, W. P.: SMOTE: Synthetic minority over-sampling technique, Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 16, 321–357, https://doi.org/10.1613/jair.953, 2002. a
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): ERA5-Land hourly data from 1950 to present. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e2161bac, 2019. a
CRED: The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT). The last 25 years in research, CredCrunch67, https://www.cred.be/sites/default/files/CredCrunch67.pdf (last access: 22 November 2024), 2022. a
EEA: Responding to climate change impacts on human health in Europe: focus on floods, droughts and water quality, EEA Report, Copenhagen, Denmark, 3, https://doi.org/10.2800/4810, 2024. a
Fischer, E. M. and Schär, C.: Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves, Nature Geoscience, 3, 398–403, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo866, 2010. a
Fischer, E. M., Seneviratne, S. I., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., and Schär, C.: Soil moisture–atmosphere interactions during the 2003 European summer heat wave, Journal of Climate, 20, 5081–5099, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4288.1, 2007. a
Forzieri, G., Feyen, L., Rojas, R., Flörke, M., Wimmer, F., and Bianchi, A.: Ensemble projections of future streamflow droughts in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 85–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-85-2014, 2014. a, b
Hattermann, F. F., Vetter, T., Breuer, L., Su, B., Daggupati, P., Donnelly, C., Fekete, B., Flörke, F., Gosling, S. N., Hoffmann, P., Liersch, S., Masaki, Y., Motovilov, Y., Müller, C., Samaniego, L., Stacke, T., Wada, Y., Yang, T., and Krysnaova, V.: Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 015006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9938, 2018. a
Hawkins, E., Osborne, T. M., Ho, C. K., and Challinor, A. J.: Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: an idealised case study over Europe, Agricultural and forest meteorology, 170, 19–31, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.007, 2013. a
Ionita, M., Tallaksen, L. M., Kingston, D. G., Stagge, J. H., Laaha, G., Van Lanen, H. A. J., Scholz, P., Chelcea, S. M., and Haslinger, K.: The European 2015 drought from a climatological perspective, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1397–1419, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1397-2017, 2017. a
IPBES: Scientific outcome of the IPBES-IPCC co-sponsored workshop on biodiversity and climate change, IPBES secretariat, Bonn, Germany, https://files.ipbes.net/ipbes-web-prod-public-files/2021-06/2021_IPCC-IPBES_scientific_outcome_20210612.pdf (last access: 28 January 2025), 2021. a
Jones, R. L., Kharb, A., and Tubeuf, S.: The untold story of missing data in disaster research: a systematic review of the empirical literature utilizing the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 103006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acfd42, 2023. a
Jonkman, S. N.: Global perspectives on loss of human life caused by floods, Nat. Hazards, 34, 151–175, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-004-8891-3, 2005. a
Karlsson, M. and Ziebarth, N. R.: Population health effects and health-related costs of extreme temperatures: Comprehensive evidence from Germany, Journals of Environmental Economics and Management, 91, 93–117, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2018.06.004, 2018. a
Lange, S. and Büchner, M.: ISIMIP3b bias-adjusted atmospheric climate input data (v1.1), Potsdam-Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung, Germany [data set], https://doi.org/10.48364/ISIMIP.842396.1, 2021. a
Lavaysse, C., Cammalleri, C., Dosio, A., van der Schrier, G., Toreti, A., and Vogt, J.: Towards a monitoring system of temperature extremes in Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 91–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-91-2018, 2018. a
Lemaître, G., Nogueira, F., and Aridas, C. K.: Imbalanced-learn: A Python Toolbox to Tackle the Curse of Imbalanced Datasets in Machine Learning, Journal of Machine Learning Research, 18, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1609.06570, 2017. a
Leonard, M., Westra, S., Phatak, A., Lambert, M., Van den Hurk, B., McInnes, K., Risbey, J., Schuster, S., Jakob, D., and Stafford-Smith, M.: A compound event framework for understanding extreme impacts, WIREs Clim. Change, 5, 113–128, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.252, 2014. a, b
Lin, C., Kjellström, E., Wilcke, R. A. I., and Chen, D.: Present and future European heat wave magnitudes: climatologies, trends, and their associated uncertainties in GCM-RCM model chains, Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1197–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022, 2022. a
Liu, M. and Huang, M. C.: Compound disasters and compounding processes: Implications for disaster risk management, In Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), https://www.undrr.org/publication/compound-disasters-and-compounding-processes-implications-disaster-risk-management (last access: 10 January 2025), 2015. a, b
Marcum, J. I.: A Statistical Theory of Target Detection by Pulsed Radar. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM754.html (last access: 23 September 2023), 1947. a
Mardian, J., Champagne, C., Bonsal, B., and Berg, A.: A machine learning framework for predicting and understanding the Canadian drought monitor, Water Resources Research, 59, e2022WR033847, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR033847, 2023. a
Mason, I.: A model for assessment of weather forecasts, Aust. Meteor. Mag., 30, 291–303, 1982. a
McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., and Kleist, J.: The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scale, In Proc. of 8th Conf. on Applied Climatology (Amer. Meteor. Soc., Anaheim, California, 179–184, https://www.droughtmanagement.info/literature/AMS_Relationship_Drought_Frequency_Duration_Time_Scales_1993.pdf (last access: 25 January 2025), 1993. a, b
Messori, G., Muheki, D., Batibeniz, F., Bevacqua, E., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., and Thiery, W.: Global mapping of concurrent hazards and impacts associated with climate extremes under climate change, Earth's Future, 13, e2025EF006325, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006325, 2025. a
Miralles, D. G., Gentine, P., Seneviratne, S. I., and Teuling, A. J.: Land-atmospheric feedbacks during droughts and heatwaves: state of the science and current challenges, Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci., 1436, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13912, 2018. a
Molina, M. O., Sánchez, E., and Gutiérrez, C.: Future heat waves over the Mediterranean from an Euro-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble, Scientific Reports, 10, 8801, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-65663-0, 2020. a, b
Mount, N. J., Maier, H. R., Toth, E., Elshorbagy, A., Solomatine, D., Chang, F.-J., and Abrahart, R. J.: Data-driven modelling approaches for socio-hydrology: opportunities and challenges within the Panta Rhei Science Plan, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 61, 1192–1208, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1159683, 2016. a, b
Mukherjee, S. and Mishra, A. K.: Increase in Compound Drought and Heatwaves in a Warming World, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL090617, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090617, 2021. a, b, c, d
Naumann, G., Cammalleri, C., Mentaschi, L., and Feyen, L.: Increased economic drought impacts in Europe with anthropogenic warming, Nat. Clim. Chang., 11, 485–491, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01044-3, 2021. a, b
Niggli, L., Huggel, C., Muccione, V., Neukom, R., and Salzmann, N.: Towards improved understanding of cascading and interconnected risks from concurrent weather extremes: Analysis of historical heat and drought extreme events, PLOS Clim., 1, e0000057, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000057, 2022. a
Ogutu, G. E. O., Franssen, W. H. P., Supit, I. Omondi, P., and Hutjes, R. W. A.: Probabilistic maize yield prediction over east Africa using dynamic ensemble seasonal climate forecasts, Agric. For. Meteorol., 250–251, 243–261, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.12.256, 2018. a
Paparrizos, S., Maris, F., Weiler, M., and Matzarakis, A.: Analysis and mapping of present and future drought conditions over Greek areas with different climate conditions, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 131, 259–270, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1964-x, 2018. a
Peach, L., da Silva, G. V., Cartwright, N., and Strauss, D.: A comparison of process-based and data-driven techniques for downscaling offshore wave forecasts to the nearshore, Ocean Modelling, 182, 102168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2023.102168, 2023. a
Pechlivanidis, I. G., Arheimer, B., Donnelly, C., Hundecha, Y., Huang, S., Aich, V., Samaniego, L., Eisner, S., and Shi, P.: Analysis of hydrological extremes at different hydro-climatic regimes under present and future conditions, Clim. Change, 141, 467–481, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1723-0, 2017. a, b, c
Peng, R. D., Bobb, J. F., Tebaldi, C., McDaniel, L., Bell, M. L., and Dominici, F.: Toward a quantitative estimate of future heat wave mortality under global climate change, Environmental Health Perspective, 119, 701–706, https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1002430, 2011. a
Prudhomme, C., Giuntoli, I., Robinson, E. L., Clark, D. B., Arnell, N. W., Dankers, R., Fekete, B. M., Franssen, W., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Hagemann, S., Hannah, D. M., Kim, H., Masaki, Y., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Wada, Y., and Wisser, D.: Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment, PNAS, 111, 3262–3267, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222473110, 2014. a
Rahman, K. U., Pham, Q. B., Jadoon, K. Z., Shahid, M., Kushwaha, D. P., Duan, Z., Mohammadi, B., Kheder, K. M., and Anh, D. T.: Comparison of machine learning and process-based SWAT model in simulating streamflow in the Upper Indus Basin, Applied Water Science, 12, 178, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-022-01692-6, 2022. a
Rakovec, O., Samaniego, L., Hari, V., Markonis, Y., Moravec, V., Thober, S., Hanel, M., and Kumar, R.: The 2018–2020 Multi-Year Drought Sets a New Benchmark in Europe, Earth's Future, 10, e2021EF002394, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002394, 2022. a
Robine, J.-M., Cheung, S. L. K., Roy, S. L., Van Oyen, H., Griffiths, C., Michel, J.-P., and Herrmann, F. R.: Death toll exceed 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003, C.R. Biol., 331, 171–178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001, 2008. a
Russo, S., Sillmann, J., and Fischer, E. M.: Top ten European heatwaves since 1950 and their occurrence in the coming decades, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 124003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124003, 2015. a, b
Samaniego, L., Kumar, R., Breuer, L., Chamorro, A., Flörke, M., Pechlivanidis, I. G., Schäfer, D., Shah, H., Vetter, T., Wortmann, M., and Zeng, X.: Propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in large river basins, Clim. Change, 141, 435–449, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1778-y, 2017. a, b, c
Samaniego, L., Thober, S., Kumar, R., Wanders, N., Rakovec, O., Pan, M., Zink, M., Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., and Marx, A.: Anthropogenic warming exacerbates european soil moisture droughts, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 421–426, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0138-5, 2018. a, b, c, d
Schuldt, B., Buras, A., Arend, M., Vitasse, Y., Beierkuhnlein, C., Damm, A., Gharun, M., Grams, T. E. E., Hauck, M., Hajek, P., Hartmann, H., Hiltbrunner, E., Hoch, G., Halloway-Phillips, M., Körner, C., Larysch, E., Lübbe, T., Nelson, D. B., Rammig, A., Rigling, A., Rose, L., Ruehr, N. K., Schumann, K., Weiser, F., Werner, C., Wohlgemuth, T., Zang, C. S., and Kahmen, A.: A first assessment of the impact of the extreme 2018 summer drought on Central European forests, Basic and Applied Ecology, 45, 86–103, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.baae.2020.04.003, 2020. a
Seneviratne, S. I., Zhang, X., Adnan, M., et al.: Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1513–1766, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.013, 2021. a, b, c
Shyrokaya, A., Pappenberger, F., Pechlivanidis, I., Messori, G., Khatami, S., Mazzoleni, M., and Baldassarre, G.: Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact-based forecasting of droughts, WIREs Water, 11, e1698, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1698, 2023. a, b
Spinoni, J., Vogt, J. V., Naumann, G., Barbosa, P., and Dosio, A.: Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 1718–1736, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5291, 2018. a, b, c
Stagge, J. H., Kohn, I., Tallaksen, L. M., and Stahl, K.: Modeling drought impact occurrence based on meteorological drought indices in Europe, J. Hydrol., 530, 37–50, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.09.039, 2015. a, b, c
Stahl, K., Kohn, I., Blauhut, V., Urquijo, J., De Stefano, L., Acácio, V., Dias, S., Stagge, J. H., Tallaksen, L. M., Kampragou, E., Van Loon, A. F., Barker, L. J., Melsen, L. A., Bifulco, C., Musolino, D., de Carli, A., Massarutto, A., Assimacopoulos, D., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Impacts of European drought events: insights from an international database of text-based reports, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 801–819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-801-2016, 2016. a, b, c, d, e
Sutanto, S. and Duku, C.: Data and script used in the paper: Future intensification of compound and consecutive drought and heatwave risks in Europe, Version 1, 4TU.ResearchData [data set], https://doi.org/10.4121/14800e7b-8649-4152-b737-7f30eab23dad.v1, 2025. a, b
Sutanto, S. J. and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Hydrological drought characteristics based on groundwater and runoff across Europe, Proc. IAHS, 383, 281–290, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-281-2020, 2020. a
Sutanto, S. J. and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Streamflow drought: implication of drought definitions and its application for drought forecasting, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3991–4023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3991-2021, 2021. a, b
Sutanto, S. J., Van Lanen, H. A. J., Wetterhall, F., and Llort, X.: Potential of pan-European hydro-meteorological drought forecasts obtained from a Multi-Hazard early warning system, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 101, 368–393, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0196.1, 2020a. a
Sutanto, S. J., van der Weert, M., Blauhut, V., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Skill of large-scale seasonal drought impact forecasts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1595–1608, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1595-2020, 2020b. a
Sutanto, S. J., Zarzoza Mora, S. B., Supit, I., and Wang, M.: Compound and cascading droughts and heatwaves decrease maize yields by nearly half in Sinaloa, Mexico, npj Nat. Hazards, 1, 26, https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00026-7, 2024. a, b
Tabari, H., Hosseinzadehtalaei, P., Thiery, W., and Willems, P.: Amplified drought and flood risk under future socioeconomic and climatic change, Earth's Future, 9, e2021EF002295, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002295, 2021. a
Teuling, A. J.: A hot future for European droughts, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 364–365, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0154-5, 2018. a
Tripathy, K. P. and Mishra, A. K.: How unusual is the 2022 European compound drought and heatwave event?, Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL105453, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105453, 2023. a
Tripathy, K. P., Mukherjee, S., Mishra, A. K., and Williams, A. P.: Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events, PNAS, 120, e2219825120, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2219825120, 2023. a, b
Van Lanen, H. A. J., Laaha, G., Kingston, D. G., Gauster, T., Ionita, M., Vidal, J.-P., Vlnas, R., Tallaksen, L. M., Stahl, K., Hannaford, K., Delus, C., Fendekova, M., Mediero, L., Prudhomme, C., Rets, E., Romanowicz, R. J., Gailliez, S., Kwok Wong, W., Adler, M.-J., Blauhut, V., Caillouet, L., Chelcea, S., Frolova, N., Gudmundsson, L., Hanel, M., Haslinger, K., Kireeva, M., Osuch, M., Sauquet, E., Stagge, J. H., and Van Loon, A. F.: Hydrology needed to manage droughts: The 2015 European case, Hydrological Processes, 30, 3097–3104, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10838, 2016. a
Vetter, T., Reinhardt, J., Flörke, M., van Griensven, A., Hattermann, F., Huang, S., Koch, H., Pechlivanidis, I. G., Plötner, S., Seidou, O., Su, B., Vervoort, R. W., and Krysanova, V.: Evaluation of sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in 12 large-scale river basins, Clim. Change, 141, 419–433, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1794-y, 2017. a
Vitolo, C., Di Napoli, C., Di Giuseppe, F., Cloke, H. L., and Pappenberger, F.: Mapping combined wildfire and heat-stress hazards to improve evidence-based decision making, Environ. Int., 127, 21–34, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.03.008, 2019. a, b, c
Walker, D. W., oliveira, J. L., Cavalcante, L., Kchouk, S., Ribeiro Neto, G., Melsen, L. A., Fernandes, F. B. P., Mitroi, V., Gondim, R. S., Martins, E. S. P. R., van Oel, P. R.: It's not all about drought: What “drought impacts” monitoring can reveal, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 103, 104338, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104338, 2024. a
Warszawski, L., Frieler, K.and Huber, V., Piontek, F., Serdeczny, O., and Schewe, J.: The inter-Sectoral impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP): project framework, PNAS, 111, 3228–3232, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1312330110, 2013. a, b
WMO: Standardized precipitation index user guide, in: World Meteorological Organization Report, edited by: Svoboda, M., Hayes, M., and Wood, E., WMO, Geneva, Switzerland, https://library.wmo.int/idurl/4/39629 (last access: 24 September 2023), 2012. a
Zscheischler, J., Martius, O., Westra, S., Bevacqua, E., Raymond, C., Horton, R. M., van den Hurk, B., AghaKouchak, A., Jézéquel, A., Mahecha, M. D., Maraun, D., Ramos, A. M., Ridder, N. N., Thiery, W., and Vignotto, E.: A typology of compound weather and climate events, Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 1, 333–347, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0060-z, 2020. a
Short summary
Drought and heatwave risks in Europe will worsen due to climate change, especially when they occur together or successively. Our study shows that both events will become more frequent and severe across Europe, with even greater increases under high-emission scenarios. In Germany, drought-related economic losses may double, and heatwave deaths could rise ninefold by 2100. These findings stress the urgent need for climate action to reduce future impacts.
Drought and heatwave risks in Europe will worsen due to climate change, especially when they...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint