Articles | Volume 25, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2571-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2571-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Invited perspectives
| 
01 Aug 2025
Invited perspectives |
| 01 Aug 2025
| 01 Aug 2025
Invited perspectives: Advancing knowledge co-creation in drought impact studies
Silvia De Angeli
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Université de Lorraine, CNRS, LIEC, F-54000 Nancy, France
Université de Lorraine, LOTERR, F-57000 Metz, France
Department of Civil, Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy
Lorenzo Villani
Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
Department of Water and Climate (HYDR), Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium
Giulio Castelli
Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
Maria Rusca
Global Development Institute, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
Giorgio Boni
Department of Civil, Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Genoa, Genoa, Italy
Elena Bresci
Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
Luigi Piemontese
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), University of Florence, Florence, Italy
Related authors
Habal Kassoum Traore, Sébastien Lebaut, Gilles Drogue, Eugène Konan Kouadio, and Silvia De Angeli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2925, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates flood and landslide risks in Greater Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, to support multi-hazard disaster risk reduction. Using a proven decision-making framework, we analyze environmental and social risk factors. An innovative validation method combines past disaster records and field surveys to enhance reliability. The findings highlight high-risk areas and offer insights to enhance urban resilience. This approach is suitable for other data-poor regions facing similar challenges.
Alessandro Borre, Daria Ottonelli, Eva Trasforini, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Giacomo Zoppi, Giorgio Boni, and Silvia De Angeli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2379, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a generalized mathematical framework to quantify physical damage to assets from concurrent and consecutive hazards over time. Applied to a Puerto Rico case study (Hurricane Maria and the 2019–2020 earthquakes), it shows that ignoring residual damage significantly underestimates total impacts caused by consecutive events. By incorporating amplification effects and recovery dynamics, the framework improves multi-hazard damage assessments for researchers and decision-makers.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Habal Kassoum Traore, Sébastien Lebaut, Gilles Drogue, Eugène Konan Kouadio, and Silvia De Angeli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2925, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2925, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates flood and landslide risks in Greater Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, to support multi-hazard disaster risk reduction. Using a proven decision-making framework, we analyze environmental and social risk factors. An innovative validation method combines past disaster records and field surveys to enhance reliability. The findings highlight high-risk areas and offer insights to enhance urban resilience. This approach is suitable for other data-poor regions facing similar challenges.
Alessandro Borre, Daria Ottonelli, Eva Trasforini, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Giacomo Zoppi, Giorgio Boni, and Silvia De Angeli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2379, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study introduces a generalized mathematical framework to quantify physical damage to assets from concurrent and consecutive hazards over time. Applied to a Puerto Rico case study (Hurricane Maria and the 2019–2020 earthquakes), it shows that ignoring residual damage significantly underestimates total impacts caused by consecutive events. By incorporating amplification effects and recovery dynamics, the framework improves multi-hazard damage assessments for researchers and decision-makers.
Rozemarijn ter Horst, Rossella Alba, Jeroen Vos, Maria Rusca, Jonatan Godinez-Madrigal, Lucie V. Babel, Gert Jan Veldwisch, Jean-Philippe Venot, Bruno Bonté, David W. Walker, and Tobias Krueger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4157–4186, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The exact power of models often remains hidden, especially when neutrality is claimed. Our review of 61 scientific articles shows that in the scientific literature little attention is given to the power of water models to influence development processes and outcomes. However, there is a lot to learn from those who are openly reflexive. Based on lessons from the review, we call for power-sensitive modelling, which means that people are critical about how models are made and with what effects.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Massimiliano Burlando, Djordje Romanic, Giorgio Boni, Martina Lagasio, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-371, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2019-371, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates the weather conditions during the collapse of the Morandi bridge, which caused 43 fatalities. Despite a thunderstorm developed over the city at the time of collapse, weather is officially ruled out as a contributing factor for it. A meteorological analysis is relevant to support this hypothesis or possibly reconsider it. The analysis, mainly based on measurements complemented with numerical simulations, reveals that quite strong winds occurred at the time of collapse.
Luca Cenci, Luca Pulvirenti, Giorgio Boni, Marco Chini, Patrick Matgen, Simone Gabellani, Giuseppe Squicciarino, and Nazzareno Pierdicca
Adv. Geosci., 44, 89–100, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-44-89-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-44-89-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This research aims at improving hydrological modelling skills of flash flood prediction by exploiting earth observation data. To this aim, high spatial/moderate temporal resolution soil moisture maps, derived from Sentinel 1 acquisitions, were used in a data assimilation framework. Findings revealed the potential of Sentinel 1-based soil moisture data assimilation for flash flood risk reduction and improved our understanding of the capabilities of the aforementioned satellite-derived product.
Antonio Parodi, Luca Ferraris, William Gallus, Maurizio Maugeri, Luca Molini, Franco Siccardi, and Giorgio Boni
Clim. Past, 13, 455–472, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-455-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-455-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Initial and boundary condition data from the 20th Century Reanalysis Project in ensemble mode are used to address the feasibility of performing cloud-resolving simulations with 1 km horizontal grid spacing of a historic extreme event that occurred over Liguria: the 1915 San Fruttuoso case. The proposed approach focuses on the ensemble Weather Research and Forecasting model runs that show strong convergence over the Ligurian Sea, as these runs are the ones most likely to best simulate the event.
F. Silvestro, S. Gabellani, R. Rudari, F. Delogu, P. Laiolo, and G. Boni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1727–1751, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1727-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1727-2015, 2015
F. Silvestro, S. Gabellani, F. Delogu, R. Rudari, and G. Boni
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 39–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-39-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-39-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
How does perceived heat stress differ between urban forms and human vulnerability profiles? Case study Berlin
Modelling flood losses of micro-businesses in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Tracing online flood conversations across borders: a watershed-level analysis of geo-social media topics during the 2021 European flood
An evaluation of the alignment of drought policy and planning guidelines with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda
Qualitative risk assessment of sensitive infrastructures at the local level: flooding and heavy rainfall
Measuring extremes-driven direct biophysical impacts in agricultural drought damages
Brief communication: Bridging the data gap – a call to enhance the representation of global coastal flood protection
Disaster management following the great Kahramanmaraş earthquakes in 2023, Türkiye
From insufficient rainfall to livelihoods: understanding the cascade of drought impacts and policy implications
Assessing future impacts of tropical cyclones on global banana production
Review article: Applicability and effectiveness of structural measures for subsidence (risk) reduction in urban areas
The Effect of Community Resilience and Disaster Risk Management Cycle Stages on Morbi-Mortality Following Floods: An Empirical Assessment
Unravelling the capacity–action gap in flood risk adaptation
Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart
Assessing the impact of early warning and evacuation on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany using agent-based modelling
Modeling Regional Production Capacity Loss Rates Considering Response Bias: Insights from a Questionnaire Survey on Zhengzhou Flood
Warnings based on risk matrices: a coherent framework with consistent evaluation
How are public compensation efforts implemented in multi-hazard events? Insights from the 2020 Gloria storm in Catalonia
Adaptive behavior of farmers under consecutive droughts results in more vulnerable farmers: a large-scale agent-based modeling analysis in the Bhima basin, India
Content analysis of multi-annual time series of flood-related Twitter (X) data
Enhancement of state response capability and famine mitigation: a comparative analysis of two drought events in northern China during the Ming dynasty
Flood exposure of environmental assets
A new method for calculating highway blocking due to high-impact weather conditions
Review Article: Analysis of sediment disaster risk assessment surveys in Brazil: A critical review and recommendations
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Flood exposure in Rotterdam’s unembanked areas from 1970 to 2150: sensitivities to urban development, sea level rise and adaptation
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Monitoring agricultural and economic drought: the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI)
Ready, Set & Go! An anticipatory action system against droughts
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment
Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty
Migration as a hidden risk factor in seismic fatality: spatial modeling of the Chi-Chi earthquake and suburban syndrome
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree river basin, Germany
Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Critical infrastructure resilience: a guide for building indicator systems based on a multi-criteria framework with a focus on implementable actions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Dynamic response of pile–slab retaining wall structure under rockfall impact
Reevaluating Flood Protection: Disaster Risk Reduction for Urbanized Alluvial Fans
Brief communication: Comprehensive Resilience to Typhoon Disasters: An Urban Assessment of 27 Cities in Seven Major River Basin, China
What if extreme droughts occur more frequently? – Mechanisms and limits of forest adaptation in pine monocultures and mixed forests in Berlin-Brandenburg, Germany
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
Sectoral Vulnerability to Drought: Exploring the Role of Blue and Green Water Dependency in Mid and High-Latitudes
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Invited perspectives: Fostering interoperability of data, models, communication and governance for disaster resilience through transdisciplinary knowledge co-production
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Flood relief logistics planning for coastal cities: a case study in Shanghai, China
Nimra Iqbal, Marvin Ravan, Zina Mitraka, Joern Birkmann, Sue Grimmond, Denise Hertwig, Nektarios Chrysoulakis, Giorgos Somarakis, Angela Wendnagel-Beck, and Emmanouil Panagiotakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2481–2502, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2481-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2481-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work deepens the understanding of how perceived heat stress, human vulnerability (e.g. age, income) and adaptive capacities (e.g. green, shaded spaces) are coupled with urban structures. The results show that perceived heat stress decreases with distance from the urban center, however, human vulnerability and adaptive capacities depend more strongly on inner variations and differences between urban structures. Planning policies and adaptation strategies should account for these differences.
Anna Buch, Dominik Paprotny, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, and Nivedita Sairam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2437–2453, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2437-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2437-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Many households in Vietnam depend on revenue from micro-businesses (shop houses). However, losses caused by regular flooding are not modelled. Business turnover, building age, and water depth were found to be the main drivers of flood losses of micro-businesses. We built and validated probabilistic models (non-parametric Bayesian networks) that estimate flood losses of micro-businesses. The results help with flood risk management and adaption decision making for micro-businesses.
Sébastien Dujardin, Dorian Arifi, Sebastian Schmidt, Catherine Linard, and Bernd Resch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2351–2369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2351-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2351-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explores how social media can help understand public responses to floods, focusing on the 2021 western European flood. We found that discussions varied by location and flood impact: in-disaster concerns were more common in severely affected upstream areas, while post-disaster topics dominated downstream. Findings show the potential of social media for improving disaster coordination along cross-border rivers in time-sensitive situations.
Ilyas Masih
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2155–2178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2155-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2155-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates 12 sets of drought policy and planning guidelines for their alignment with the four priority areas of the SENDAI framework. The guidelines do not align very well with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda. The study highlights strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats and provides useful insights to develop the next generation of drought guidelines that are better aligned with contemporary science–policy–practice agendas.
Alessa Truedinger, Joern Birkmann, Mark Fleischhauer, and Celso Ferreira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2097–2113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2097-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2097-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In post-disaster reconstruction, emphasis should be placed on critical and sensitive infrastructures. In Germany, as in other countries, sensitive infrastructures have not yet been focused on; therefore, we developed a method for determining the risk that sensitive infrastructures are facing in the context of riverine and pluvial flooding. The easy-to-use assessment framework can be applied to various sensitive infrastructures, e.g., to qualify and accelerate decisions in the reconstruction process.
Mansi Nagpal, Jasmin Heilemann, Luis Samaniego, Bernd Klauer, Erik Gawel, and Christian Klassert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2115–2135, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2115-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2115-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study measures the direct effects of droughts in association with other extreme weather events on agriculture in Germany at the district level. Using a statistical yield model, we quantify the direct damage of extremes on crop yields and farm revenue. Extreme events during drought cause an average annual damage of EUR 781 million, accounting for 45 % of reported revenue losses. The insights herein can help develop better strategies for managing and mitigating the effects of future climate extremes.
Nicole van Maanen, Joël J.-F. G. De Plaen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Maria Luisa Colmenares, Philip J. Ward, Paolo Scussolini, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2075–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding coastal flood protection is vital for assessing risks from natural disasters and climate change. However, current global data on coastal flood protection are limited and based on simplified assumptions, leading to potential uncertainties in risk estimates. As a step in this direction, we propose a comprehensive dataset, COASTtal flood PROtection Standards within EUrope (COASTPROS-EU), which compiles coastal flood protection standards in Europe.
Bektaş Sarı
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2031–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2031-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2031-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
After the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, the Turkish Government mobilized all available resources, ensured regular information updates, and deployed a significant number of rescue personnel to the affected areas. However, the scale of this devastating disaster, resulting in the loss of over 50 000 lives, underscores the critical importance of building earthquake-resistant structures as the most effective means to mitigate such calamities.
Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1993–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1993-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1993-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Drought affects not only water availability but also agriculture, the economy, and communities. This study explores how public policies help reduce these impacts in Ceará, Northeast Brazil. Using qualitative drought monitoring data, interviews, and policy analysis, we found that policies supporting local economies help lessen drought effects. However, most reported impacts are still related to water shortages, showing the need for broader strategies beyond water supply investment.
Sophie Kaashoek, Žiga Malek, Nadia Bloemendaal, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1963–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1963-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1963-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical storms are expected to get stronger all over the world, and this will have a big impact on people, buildings and important activities like growing bananas. Already, in different parts of the world, banana farms are being hurt by these storms, which makes banana prices go up and affects the people who grow them. We are not sure how these storms will affect bananas everywhere in the future. We assessed what happened to banana farms during storms in different parts of the world.
Nicoletta Nappo and Mandy Korff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1811–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1811-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1811-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Cities in coastal and delta areas need effective engineering techniques to counteract subsidence and its damage. This paper presents a framework for choosing these techniques using a decision tree and four performance parameters. This procedure was tested on various cases representative of different scenarios. This demonstrated the potential of this method for initial screenings of techniques which site-specific assessments should always follow.
Raquel Guimaraes, Reinhard Mechler, Stefan Velev, and Dipesh Chapagain
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1947, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1947, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how communities can better protect people's lives and health during floods. By looking at 66 communities in seven countries, we found that strong social ties and preparedness before disasters helped reduce injuries and deaths. However, some environmental efforts didn't show clear health benefits, especially in degraded areas. Our research highlights how early planning and strong local networks can make a real difference during crises.
Annika Schubert, Anne von Streit, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1621–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1621-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1621-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Households play a crucial role in climate adaptation efforts. Yet, households require capacities to implement measures. We explore which capacities enable German households to adapt to flooding. Our results indicate that flood-related capacities such as risk perception, responsibility appraisal, and motivation are pivotal, whereas financial assets are secondary. Enhancing these specific capacities, e.g. through collaborations between households and municipalities, could promote local adaptation.
Joanna M. McMillan, Franziska Göttsche, Joern Birkmann, Rainer Kapp, Corinna Schmidt, Britta Weisser, and Ali Jamshed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1573–1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1573-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1573-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Adapting to climate extremes is a challenge for spatial planning. Risk maps that include not just a consideration of hazards but also social vulnerability can help. We develop social vulnerability maps for the Stuttgart region, Germany. We show the maps, describe how and why we developed them, and provide an analysis of practitioners' needs and their feedback. Insights presented in this paper can help to improve map usability and to better link research and planning practice.
André Felipe Rocha Silva, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Heiko Apel, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.
Lijiao Yang, Yan Luo, Zilong Li, and Xinyu Jiang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3923, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a response-bias-tolerant methodology for constructing production capacity loss rate (PCLR) curves, which addresses response bias in extreme flood scenarios and considers the distribution characteristics of PCLR under different damage states. The core value of this study is to provide a competing and promising input in economic modeling, such as input-output and computable general equilibrium models.
Robert J. Taggart and David J. Wilke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-323, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research presents a new method for determining warning levels for any hazard. Using risk matrices, our framework addresses issues found in other approaches. We provide examples to demonstrate how the approach works. A powerful method for evaluating warning accuracy is given, allowing for a cycle of continuous improvement in warning services. This research is relevant to a broad audience, from those who develop forecast systems to practitioners who issue or communicate warnings.
Núria Pantaleoni Reluy, Marcel Hürlimann, and Nieves Lantada
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1009, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1009, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Spain combines public funds with a state-backed insurance program for natural disaster recovery. Our study examines Storm Gloria, which struck Catalonia in 2020, causing severe damage. By systematically collecting and classifying direct losses, we offer insights into the role of government interventions in disaster response, define multi-hazard municipalities based on a loss database, and provide initial insights into loss assessments relative to annual occurrence probability.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated farmers' individual choices – like changing crops or digging wells – and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damage. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrological models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 879–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help us understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 591–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. The spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua drought and the Wanli drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
Gabriele Bertoli, Chiara Arrighi, and Enrica Caporali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 565–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental assets are crucial to sustaining and fulfilling life on Earth via ecosystem services (ESs). Studying their flood risk is thus seminal, in addition to being required by several norms. However, this field is not yet adequately developed. We studied the exposure component of flood risk and developed an evaluating methodology based on the ESs provided by environmental assets to discern assets and areas that are more important than others with metrics suitable to large-scale studies.
Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, and Fan Zu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Highway-blocking events are characterized by diurnal variation. A classification method of severity levels of highway blocking is catagorized into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated. A method for calculating the degree of highway load in China is proposed. A quantitative assessment of the losses of highway blocking due to dense fog is conducted. The highway losses caused by dense fog are concentrated in North, East, and Southwest China.
Thiago Dutra dos Santos and Taro Uchida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2255, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Five federal sediment-related disaster risk assessments have been conducted in Brazil, each with distinct objectives and methodologies. To evaluate their effectiveness and identify issues, we analyzed the methods, the outcome data, and reviewed the status of disaster prevention initiatives based on the assessment results. Our findings revealed persistent problems across all methods. Consequently, we recommended improvements to enhance their efficacy and reliability.
Alexandre Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander L. Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards like earthquakes often trigger other disasters, such as landslides, creating complex chains of impacts. We developed a risk model using a mathematical approach called hypergraphs to efficiently measure the impact of interconnected hazards. We showed that it can predict broad patterns of damage to buildings and roads from the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The model's efficiency allows it to generate multiple disaster scenarios, even at a national scale, to support preparedness plans.
Cees Oerlemans, Martine van den Boomen, Ties Rijcken, and Matthijs Kok
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2910, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes flood exposure in Rotterdam's unembanked areas from 1970 to 2150, exploring the interplay between rising sea levels, urban development, and flood protection measures. Without measures, flood exposure will increase, especially after 2100. The Maeslant storm surge barrier had the most impact on flood exposure, followed by urban development and sea level rise. Varied exposure levels across neighborhoods suggest the need for localized adaptation strategies.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 49–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history mean the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry are scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study to determine the suitability of current published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset–hazard taxonomy is proposed to guide future quantitative research.
Neal Hughes, Donald Gaydon, Mihir Gupta, Andrew Schepen, Peter Tan, Geoffrey Brent, Andrew Turner, Sean Bellew, Wei Ying Soh, Christopher Sharman, Peter Taylor, John Carter, Dorine Bruget, Zvi Hochman, Ross Searle, Yong Song, Heidi Horan, Patrick Mitchell, Yacob Beletse, Dean Holzworth, Laura Guillory, Connor Brodie, Jonathon McComb, and Ramneek Singh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3731, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts can impact agriculture and regional economies, and their severity is rising with climate change. Our research introduces a new system, the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI), which measures droughts based on their effects on crops, livestock, and farm profits rather than traditional weather metrics. Using climate data and modelling, AADI predicts drought impacts more accurately, helping policymakers prepare and respond to financial and social challenges during droughts.
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Manuel Lemos Pereira Bonifácio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4661–4682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The
Ready, Set & Go!system, developed by the World Food Programme and partners, employs seasonal forecasts to tackle droughts in Mozambique. With the Maputo Declaration, efforts to expand early warning systems are aligning with global initiatives for universal protection by 2027. Through advanced forecasting and anticipatory action, it could cover 76 % of districts against severe droughts, reaching 87 % national coverage for the first months of the rainy season.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4631–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructure to increase their capabilities.
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4507–4522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investment, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows for identifying the critical points where single-value estimates may underestimate the risk and the areas of vulnerability for prioritizing risk reduction efforts.
Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4457–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows migration patterns to be a critical factor in seismic fatalities. Analyzing the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, we find that lower income and a higher indigenous population at migrants' origins are correlated with higher fatalities at their destinations. This underscores the need for affordable and safe housing on the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower-income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside due to precarious employment conditions.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in plans for water management, spatial planning and landscape planning in the Spree river basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures, and the adaptation of best-practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) spans four countries with 59 volcanoes. We identify those with the most intense and frequent eruptions and the highest potential impact that require risk mitigation actions. Using multiple risk factors, we encourage the use of regional volcanic risk assessments to analyse the level of preparedness especially of transboundary volcanoes. We hope that our work will motivate further collaborative studies and promote cooperation between CVZA countries.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamín Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, Georgios Triantafyllou, and Ulugbek T. Begaliev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To integrate resilience assessment into practical management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables managers of critical infrastructure (CI) to create specific indicator systems tailored to real cases. This guide considers the consequences of hazards to CI and the cost–benefit analysis and side effects of implementable actions. The assessment results assist managers, as they are based on a multi-criterion framework that addresses several factors valued in practical management.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
Tamir Grodek and Gerardo Benito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-171, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-171, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Check dams, terraces, and trees on steep basins serve to retain sediments, thereby protecting urbanized alluvial fan canals and levees from flooding. However, their effectiveness gradually decreases over time due to sedimentation and aging, which may lead to catastrophic breaching floods. To enhance urban resilience, we propose preserving natural mountain basins and allocating 20–30 % of the alluvial fan for channel migration and sediment deposition corridors.
Zezhao Liu, Jiahui Yang, and Cong Wu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2343, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2343, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We construct an indicator-based framework, and assess urban resilience to typhoon in China’s contexts for the seven major river basins. Results verified the heterogeneity, and the resilience level in certain circumstance was not matched with city strength of economy. The analysis is helpful for government to enhance capability of resilience in specific dimensions, and provides a reference in probing urban resilience assessment confronting typhoon.
Jamir Priesner, Boris Sakschewski, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Sebastian Fiedler, Sarah Bereswill, Kirsten Thonicke, and Britta Tietjen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our simulations suggest that increased drought frequencies lead to a drastic reduction in biomass in pine monoculture and mixed forest. Mixed forest eventually recovered, as long as drought frequencies was not too high. The higher resilience of mixed forests was due to higher adaptive capacity. After adaptation mixed forests were mainly composed of smaller, broad-leaved trees with higher wood density and slower growth.This would have strong implications for forestry and other ecosystem services.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Elin Stenfors, Malgorzata Blicharska, Thomas Grabs, and Claudia Teutschbein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2726, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Utilizing a survey including respondents from seven societal sectors, the role of water dependency for drought vulnerability was explored. Differences were found in the perceived impact of vulnerability factors on drought risk in relation to water dependency (i.e., dependency on either soil moisture, or groundwater and surface water). The results highlight the importance of accounting for water dependency, and to clearly define the drought hazard, in drought vulnerability or risk assessments.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Kai Schröter, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Benedikt Gräler, Lydia Cumiskey, Sukaina Bharwani, Janne Parviainen, Chahan Kropf, Viktor Wattin Hakansson, Martin Drews, Tracy Irvine, Clarissa Dondi, Heiko Apel, Jana Löhrlein, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefano Bagli, Levente Huszti, Christopher Genillard, Silvia Unguendoli, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-135, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-135, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
With the increasing negative impacts of extreme weather events globally, it's crucial to align efforts to manage disasters with measures to adapt to climate change. We identify challenges in systems and organizations working together. We suggest that collaboration across various fields is essential and propose an approach to improve collaboration, including a framework for better stakeholder engagement and an open-source data system that helps gather and connect important information.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Pujun Liang, Jie Yin, Dandan Wang, Yi Lu, Yuhan Yang, Dan Gao, and Jianfeng Mai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-88, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Addressing coastal city flood risks, this article examines relief logistics planning, employing a GIS-network analysis and optimization model to minimize costs and dissatisfaction. The investigation, grounded in Shanghai's emergency infrastructure and flood relief logistics framework, presents feasible distribution strategies. Meanwhile, the case study indicates that the supply levels of Emergency Flood Shelters and Emergency Reserve Warehouses vary in different coastal flood scenarios.
Cited articles
Addor, N. and Melsen, L. A.: Legacy, Rather Than Adequacy, Drives the Selection of Hydrological Models, Water Resour. Res., 55, 378–390, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022958, 2019.
AghaKouchak, A., Mirchi, A., Madani, K., Di Baldassarre, G., Nazemi, A., Alborzi, A., Anjileli, H., Azarderakhsh, M., Chiang, F., Hassanzadeh, E., Huning, L. S., Mallakpour, I., Martinez, A., Mazdiyasni, O., Moftakhari, H., Norouzi, H., Sadegh, M., Sadeqi, D., Van Loon, A. F., and Wanders, N.: Anthropogenic Drought: Definition, Challenges, and Opportunities, Rev. Geophys., 59, e2019RG000683, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000683, 2021.
Aldunce, P., Bórquez, R., Adler, C., Blanco, G., and Garreaud, R.: Unpacking Resilience for Adaptation: Incorporating Practitioners' Experiences through a Transdisciplinary Approach to the Case of Drought in Chile, Sustainability, 8, 905, https://doi.org/10.3390/su8090905, 2016.
Alexandra, J. and Rickards, L.: The Contested Politics of Drought, Water Security and Climate Adaptation in Australia's Murray-Darling Basin, Water Altern., 14, 773–794, 2021.
Alharahsheh, H. H. and Pius, A.: A Review of key paradigms: positivism VS interpretivism, Glob. Acad. J. Humanit. Soc. Sci., 2, 39–43, https://www.gajrc.com/media/articles/GAJHSS_23_39-43_VMGJbOK.pdf (last access: 30 July 2025), 2020.
Angelstam, P., Andersson, K., Annerstedt, M., Axelsson, R., Elbakidze, M., Garrido, P., Grahn, P., Jönsson, K. I., Pedersen, S., Schlyter, P., Skärbäck, E., Smith, M., and Stjernquist, I.: Solving Problems in Social–Ecological Systems: Definition, Practice and Barriers of Transdisciplinary Research, AMBIO, 42, 254–265, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0372-4, 2013.
Arheimer, B., Cudennec, C., Castellarin, A., Grimaldi, S., Heal, K. V., Lupton, C., Sarkar, A., Tian, F., Kileshye Onema, J.-M., Archfield, S., Blöschl, G., Chaffe, P. L. B., Croke, B. F. W., Dembélé, M., Leong, C., Mijic, A., Mosquera, G. M., Nlend, B., Olusola, A. O., Polo, M. J., Sandells, M., Sheffield, J., van Hateren, T. C., Shafiei, M., Adla, S., Agarwal, A., Aguilar, C., Andersson, J. C. M., Andraos, C., Andreu, A., Avanzi, F., Bart, R. R., Bartosova, A., Batelaan, O., Bennett, J. C., Bertola, M., Bezak, N., Boekee, J., Bogaard, T., Booij, M. J., Brigode, P., Buytaert, W., Bziava, K., Castelli, G., Castro, C. V., Ceperley, N. C., Chidepudi, S. K. R., Chiew, F. H. S., Chun, K. P., Dagnew, A. G., Dekongmen, B. W., del Jesus, M., Dezetter, A., do Nascimento Batista, J. A., Doble, R. C., Dogulu, N., Eekhout, J. P. C., Elçi, A., Elenius, M., Finger, D. C., Fiori, A., Fischer, S., Förster, K., Ganora, D., Gargouri Ellouze, E., Ghoreishi, M., Harvey, N., Hrachowitz, M., Jampani, M., Jaramillo, F., Jongen, H. J., Kareem, K. Y., Khan, U. T., Khatami, S., Kingston, D. G., Koren, G., Krause, S., Kreibich, H., Lerat, J., Liu, J., Madruga de Brito, M., Mahé, G., Makurira, H., Mazzoglio, P., Merheb, M., Mishra, A., Mohammad, H., Montanari, A., Mujere, N., Nabavi, E., Nkwasa, A., Orduna Alegria, M. E., Orieschnig, C., Ovcharuk, V., Palmate, S. S., Pande, S., Pandey, S., Papacharalampous, G., Pechlivanidis, I., et al.: The IAHS Science for Solutions decade, with Hydrology Engaging Local People IN a Global world (HELPING), Hydrol. Sci. J., 69, 1417–1435, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2024.2355202, 2024.
Ayantunde, A. A., Turner, M. D., and Kalilou, A.: Participatory analysis of vulnerability to drought in three agro-pastoral communities in the West African Sahel, Pastoralism, 5, 13, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13570-015-0033-x, 2015.
Bachmair, S., Stahl, K., Collins, K., Hannaford, J., Acreman, M., Svoboda, M., Knutson, C., Smith, K. H., Wall, N., Fuchs, B., Crossman, N. D., and Overton, I. C.: Drought indicators revisited: the need for a wider consideration of environment and society, WIREs Water, 3, 516–536, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1154, 2016.
Baker, T. J., Cullen, B., Debevec, L., and Abebe, Y.: A socio-hydrological approach for incorporating gender into biophysical models and implications for water resources research, Appl. Geogr., 62, 325–338, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.05.008, 2015.
Ballesteros-Olza, M., Blanco-Gutiérrez, I., Esteve, P., Gómez-Ramos, A., and Bolinches, A.: Using reclaimed water to cope with water scarcity: an alternative for agricultural irrigation in Spain, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 125002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca3bb, 2022.
Basco-Carrera, L., Warren, A., van Beek, E., Jonoski, A., and Giardino, A.: Collaborative modelling or participatory modelling? A framework for water resources management, Environ. Model. Softw., 91, 95–110, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.01.014, 2017.
Baumgärtner, S., Becker, C., Frank, K., Müller, B., and Quaas, M.: Relating the philosophy and practice of ecological economics: The role of concepts, models, and case studies in inter- and transdisciplinary sustainability research, Ecol. Econ., 67, 384–393, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.07.018, 2008.
Beck, M. and Krueger, T.: The epistemic, ethical, and political dimensions of uncertainty in integrated assessment modeling, WIREs Clim. Change, 7, 627–645, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.415, 2016.
Bennich, T., Maneas, G., Maniatakou, S., Piemontese, L., Schaffer, C., Schellens, M., and Österlin, C.: Transdisciplinary research for sustainability: scoping for project potential, Int. Soc. Sci. J., 72, 1087–1104, https://doi.org/10.1111/issj.12245, 2022.
Biggs, R., De Vos, A., Preiser, R., Clements, H., Maciejewski, K., and Schlüter, M.: The Routledge handbook of research methods for social-ecological systems, Taylor & Francis, https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003021339, 2021.
Boelens, R., Hoogesteger, J., Swyngedouw, E., Vos, J., and Wester, P.: Hydrosocial territories: a political ecology perspective, Water Int., 41, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2016.1134898, 2016.
Brandt, P., Ernst, A., Gralla, F., Luederitz, C., Lang, D. J., Newig, J., Reinert, F., Abson, D. J., and von Wehrden, H.: A review of transdisciplinary research in sustainability science, Ecol. Econ., 92, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.04.008, 2013.
Brugnach, M. and Ingram, H.: Ambiguity: the challenge of knowing and deciding together, Environ. Sci. Policy, 15, 60–71, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2011.10.005, 2012.
Brugnach, M. and Özerol, G.: Knowledge Co-Production and Transdisciplinarity: Opening Pandora's Box, Water, 11, 1997, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11101997, 2019.
Budds, J.: Contested H2O: Science, policy and politics in water resources management in Chile, Themed Issue Gramscian Polit. Ecol., 40, 418–430, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2008.12.008, 2009.
Burton, I., Kates, R., and White, G.: Environment as Hazard, Oxford University Press, ISBN 9780898621594, 1993.
Carmona, G., Varela-Ortega, C., and Bromley, J.: Participatory modelling to support decision making in water management under uncertainty: Two comparative case studies in the Guadiana river basin, Spain, J. Environ. Manag., 128, 400–412, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.05.019, 2013.
Cid, D. A. C., Souza Filho, F. de A. de, Alves, R. da S., Pontes Filho, J. D. de A., Silva, D. C. da, and Martins, E. S. P. R.: Drought in play: A grounded socio-hydrological tool to increase social participation in drought plans, J. Hydrol., 638, 131445, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131445, 2024.
Clarke, T. and Clegg, S.: Changing paradigms: The transformation of management knowledge for the 21st century, Harper Collins, London, ISBN 0-00-638731-4, 1998.
Clarkson, M. B. E.: A Stakeholder Framework for Analyzing and Evaluating Corporate Social Performance, Acad. Manage. Rev., 20, 92–117, https://doi.org/10.2307/258888, 1995.
Cleaver, F.: Paradoxes of participation: questioning participatory approaches to development, J. Int. Dev., 11, 597–612, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1328(199906)11:4<597::AID-JID610>3.0.CO;2-Q, 1999.
Coletta, V. R., Pagano, A., Zimmermann, N., Davies, M., Butler, A., Fratino, U., Giordano, R., and Pluchinotta, I.: Socio-hydrological modelling using participatory System Dynamics modelling for enhancing urban flood resilience through Blue-Green Infrastructure, J. Hydrol., 636, 131248, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131248, 2024.
Collard, R.-C., Harris, L. M., Heynen, N., and Mehta, L.: The antinomies of nature and space, Environ. Plan. E Nat. Space, 1, 3–24, https://doi.org/10.1177/2514848618777162, 2018.
Daré, W., Venot, J.-P., Le Page, C., and Aduna, A.: Problemshed or Watershed? Participatory Modeling towards IWRM in North Ghana, Water, 10, 721, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10060721, 2018.
Di Baldassarre, G.: Socio-Hydrology of Floods, in: Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science, https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.264, 2017.
Di Baldassarre, G., Viglione, A., Carr, G., Kuil, L., Salinas, J. L., and Blöschl, G.: Socio-hydrology: conceptualising human-flood interactions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3295–3303, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3295-2013, 2013.
Di Baldassarre, G., Viglione, A., Carr, G., Kuil, L., Yan, K., Brandimarte, L., and Blöschl, G.: Debates—Perspectives on socio-hydrology: Capturing feedbacks between physical and social processes, Water Resour. Res., 51, 4770–4781, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR016416, 2015.
Enenkel, M., Brown, M. E., Vogt, J. V., McCarty, J. L., Reid Bell, A., Guha-Sapir, D., Dorigo, W., Vasilaky, K., Svoboda, M., Bonifacio, R., Anderson, M., Funk, C., Osgood, D., Hain, C., and Vinck, P.: Why predict climate hazards if we need to understand impacts? Putting humans back into the drought equation, Clim. Change, 162, 1161–1176, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02878-0, 2020.
Eriksen, S. and Lind, J.: Adaptation as a Political Process: Adjusting to Drought and Conflict in Kenya's Drylands, Environ. Manage., 43, 817–835, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-008-9189-0, 2009.
Falconi, S. M. and Palmer, R. N.: An interdisciplinary framework for participatory modeling design and evaluation–What makes models effective participatory decision tools?, Water Resour. Res., 53, 1625–1645, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019373, 2017.
Fischer, A., Miller, J. A., Nottingham, E., Wiederstein, T., Krueger, L. J., Perez-Quesada, G., Hutchinson, S. L., and Sanderson, M. R.: A Systematic Review of Spatial-Temporal Scale Issues in Sociohydrology, Front. Water, 3, https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2021.730169, 2021.
Garb, Y., Pulver, S., and VanDeveer, S. D.: Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling, Environ. Res. Lett., 3, 045015, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/045015, 2008.
Gil-García, L., González-López, H., and Pérez-Blanco, C. D.: To dam or not to dam? Actionable socio-hydrology modeling to inform robust adaptation to water scarcity and water extremes, Environ. Sci. Policy, 144, 74–87, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2023.03.012, 2023.
Giordano, R., Preziosi, E., and Romano, E.: Integration of local and scientific knowledge to support drought impact monitoring: some hints from an Italian case study, Nat. Hazards, 69, 523–544, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0724-9, 2013.
Goldman, M. J., Nadasdy, P., and Turner, M. D.: Knowing nature: Conversations at the intersection of political ecology and science studies, University of Chicago Press, https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226301440.001.0001, 2019.
Grainger, S., Murphy, C., and Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: Barriers and Opportunities for Actionable Knowledge Production in Drought Risk Management: Embracing the Frontiers of Co-production, Front. Environ. Sci., 9, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.602128, 2021.
Gray, S., Chan, A., Clark, D., and Jordan, R.: Modeling the integration of stakeholder knowledge in social–ecological decision-making: Benefits and limitations to knowledge diversity, Ecol. Model., 229, 88–96, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.09.011, 2012.
G. Ribeiro Neto, G., Kchouk, S., Melsen, L. A., Cavalcante, L., Walker, D. W., Dewulf, A., Costa, A. C., Martins, E. S. P. R., and van Oel, P. R.: HESS Opinions: Drought impacts as failed prospects, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 4217–4225, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-4217-2023, 2023.
Gwapedza, D., Barreteau, O., Mantel, S., Paxton, B., Bonte, B., Tholanah, R., Xoxo, S., Theron, S., Mabohlo, S., O'Keeffe, L., Bradshaw, K., and Tanner, J.: Engaging stakeholders to address a complex water resource management issue in the Western Cape, South Africa, J. Hydrol., 639, 131522, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131522, 2024.
Hadorn, G. H., Hoffmann-Riem, H., Biber-Klemm, S., Grossenbacher-Mansuy, W., Joye, D., Pohl, C., Wiesmann, U., and Zemp, E.: Handbook of transdisciplinary research, Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-6699-3, 2008.
Hagenlocher, M., Naumann, G., Meza, I., Blauhut, V., Cotti, D., Döll, P., Ehlert, K., Gaupp, F., Van Loon, A. F., Marengo, J. A., Rossi, L., Sabino Siemons, A. S., Siebert, S., Tsehayu, A. T., Toreti, A., Tsegai, D., Vera, C., Vogt, J., and Wens, M.: Tackling Growing Drought Risks–The Need for a Systemic Perspective, Earths Future, 11, e2023EF003857, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003857, 2023.
Hargrove, W. L. and Heyman, J. M.: A Comprehensive Process for Stakeholder Identification and Engagement in Addressing Wicked Water Resources Problems, Land, 9, 119, https://doi.org/10.3390/land9040119, 2020.
Hervás-Gámez, C. and Delgado-Ramos, F.: Critical Review of the Public Participation Process in Drought Management Plans. The Guadalquivir River Basin Case in Spain, Water Resour. Manag. Int. J. Publ. Eur. Water Resour. Assoc. EWRA, 33, 4189–4200, 2019.
Hossain, M. S., Ramirez, J., Szabo, S., Eigenbrod, F., Johnson, F. A., Speranza, C. I., and Dearing, J. A.: Participatory modelling for conceptualizing social-ecological system dynamics in the Bangladesh delta, Reg. Environ. Change, 20, 28, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01599-5, 2020.
Hummel, D., Jahn, T., Keil, F., Liehr, S., and Stieß, I.: Social Ecology as Critical, Transdisciplinary Science–Conceptualizing, Analyzing and Shaping Societal Relations to Nature, Sustainability, 9, 1050, https://doi.org/10.3390/su9071050, 2017.
Iwaniec, D. M., Cook, E. M., Davidson, M. J., Berbés-Blázquez, M., Georgescu, M., Krayenhoff, E. S., Middel, A., Sampson, D. A., and Grimm, N. B.: The co-production of sustainable future scenarios, Landscape Urban Plan., 197, 103744, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2020.103744, 2020.
Kaika, M.: Constructing Scarcity and Sensationalising Water Politics: 170 Days That Shook Athens, Antipode, 35, 919–954, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8330.2003.00365.x, 2003.
Kallis, G.: Droughts, Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour., 33, 85–118, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.environ.33.081307.123117, 2008.
Kallis, G.: Coevolution in water resource development: The vicious cycle of water supply and demand in Athens, Greece, Ecol. Econ., 69, 796–809, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.07.025, 2010.
Kchouk, S., Melsen, L. A., Walker, D. W., and van Oel, P. R.: A geography of drought indices: mismatch between indicators of drought and its impacts on water and food securities, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 323–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-323-2022, 2022.
Kim, G. J., Yoon, H. N., Seo, S. B., and Kim, Y. O.: Application of shared vision planning for drought mitigation climate c hange adaptation council in Korea, in: Proc., 38th IAHR World Congress, Panama City, Panama, International As sociation for Hydro-Environment Engineering and Research, https://doi.org/10.3850/38WC092019-1599, 2019.
King, L. and Tadaki, M.: A framework for understanding the politics of science (Core Tenet# 2), Palgrave Handb. Crit. Phys. Geogr., 67–88, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71461-5_4, 2018.
Klein, J. T.: A taxonomy of interdisciplinarity, in: The Oxford Handbook of Interdisciplinarity, vol. 15, edited by: Klein, J. T. and Mitcham, C., Oxford University Press, ISBN 9780198733522, 2010.
Kneier, F., Woltersdorf, L., Peiris, T. A., and Döll, P.: Participatory Bayesian Network modeling of climate change risks and adaptation regarding water supply: Integration of multi-model ensemble hazard estimates and local expert knowledge, Environ. Model. Softw., 168, 105764, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105764, 2023.
Krueger, T. and Alba, R.: Ontological and epistemological commitments in interdisciplinary water research: Uncertainty as an entry point for reflexion, Front. Water, 4, https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2022.1038322, 2022.
Krueger, T., Maynard, C., Carr, G., Bruns, A., Mueller, E. N., and Lane, S.: A transdisciplinary account of water research, WIREs Water, 3, 369–389, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1132, 2016.
Landström, C., Whatmore, S. J., Lane, S. N., Odoni, N. A., Ward, N., and Bradley, S.: Coproducing Flood Risk Knowledge: Redistributing Expertise in Critical `Participatory Modelling', Environ. Plan. Econ. Space, 43, 1617–1633, https://doi.org/10.1068/a43482, 2011.
Landström, C., Sarmiento, E., and Whatmore, S. J.: Stakeholder engagement does not guarantee impact: A co-productionist perspective on model-based drought research, Soc. Stud. Sci., 54, 210–230, https://doi.org/10.1177/03063127231199220, 2023.
Lang, D. J., Wiek, A., Bergmann, M., Stauffacher, M., Martens, P., Moll, P., Swilling, M., and Thomas, C. J.: Transdisciplinary research in sustainability science: practice, principles, and challenges, Sustain. Sci., 7, 25–43, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-011-0149-x, 2012.
Lemos, M. C. and Morehouse, B. J.: The co-production of science and policy in integrated climate assessments, Global Environ. Chang., 15, 57–68, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.09.004, 2005.
Lemos, M. C., Arnott, J. C., Ardoin, N. M., Baja, K., Bednarek, A. T., Dewulf, A., Fieseler, C., Goodrich, K. A., Jagannathan, K., Klenk, N., Mach, K. J., Meadow, A. M., Meyer, R., Moss, R., Nichols, L., Sjostrom, K. D., Stults, M., Turnhout, E., Vaughan, C., Wong-Parodi, G., and Wyborn, C.: To co-produce or not to co-produce, Nat. Sustain., 1, 722–724, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0191-0, 2018.
Lewis, A. C., Hilton, J., and Vocke, R.: Water Supply Options in a New Mexico Water Planning Region, JAWRA J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 41, 635–643, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2005.tb03760.x, 2005.
Liguori, A., McEwen, L., Blake, J., and Wilson, M.: Towards `Creative Participatory Science': Exploring Future Scenarios Through Specialist Drought Science and Community Storytelling, Front. Environ. Sci., 8, 589856, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2020.589856, 2021.
Lillo-Ortega, G., Aldunce, P., Adler, C., Vidal, M., and Rojas, M.: On the evaluation of adaptation practices: a transdisciplinary exploration of drought measures in Chile, Sustain. Sci., 14, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-018-0619-5, 2019.
Linton, J. and Budds, J.: The hydrosocial cycle: Defining and mobilizing a relational-dialectical approach to water, Geoforum, 57, 170–180, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2013.10.008, 2014.
Luetkemeier, R., Mbidzo, M., and Liehr, S.: Water security and rangeland sustainability: Transdisciplinary research insights from Namibian–German collaborations, South Afr. J. Sci., 117, https://doi.org/10.17159/sajs.2021/7773, 2021.
Macpherson, E., Cuppari, R. I., Kagawa-Viviani, A., Brause, H., Brewer, W. A., Grant, W. E., Herman-Mercer, N., Livneh, B., Neupane, K. R., Petach, T., Peters, C. N., Wang, H.-H., Pahl-Wostl, C., and Wheater, H.: Setting a pluralist agenda for water governance: Why power and scale matter, WIREs Water, 11, e1734, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1734, 2024.
Masi, M., Arrighi, C., Piragino, F., and Castelli, F.: Participatory multi-criteria decision making for optimal siting of multipurpose artificial reservoirs, J. Environ. Manage., 370, 122904, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122904, 2024.
Mehta, L.: The Manufacture of Popular Perceptions of Scarcity: Dams and Water-Related Narratives in Gujarat, India, World Dev., 29, 2025–2041, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305-750X(01)00087-0, 2001.
Mehta, L.: The Politics and Poetics of Water: The Naturalisation of Scarcity in Western India, Orient Blackswan, 436 pp., ISBN 978-8125053033, 2005.
Mehta, L.: Whose scarcity? Whose property? The case of water in western India, Explor. New Underst. Resour. Tenure Reform Context Glob., 24, 654–663, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2006.05.009, 2007.
Melsen, L. A.: It Takes a Village to Run a Model–The Social Practices of Hydrological Modeling, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2021WR030600, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR030600, 2022.
Melsen, L. A., Vos, J., and Boelens, R.: What is the role of the model in socio-hydrology? Discussion of “Prediction in a socio-hydrological world”, Hydrol. Sci. J., 63, 1435–1443, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2018.1499025, 2018.
Mishra, A. K. and Singh, V. P.: A review of drought concepts, J. Hydrol., 391, 202–216, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012, 2010.
Mishra, A. K. and Singh, V. P.: Drought modeling – A review, J. Hydrol., 403, 157–175, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.03.049, 2011.
Mpandeli, S., Nesamvuni, E., and Maponya, P.: Adapting to the impacts of drought by smallholder farmers in Sekhukhun e District in Limpopo Province, South Africa, J. Agr. Sci., 7, 115, https://doi.org/10.5539/jas.v7n2p115, 2015.
Mpofu-Mketwa, T. J., Abrams, A., and Black, G. F.: Reflections on measuring the soundness of the digital storytelling method applied to three Cape Flats vulnerable communities affected by drought, fire and flooding in Cape Town, Soc. Sci. Humanit. Open, 7, 100407, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssaho.2023.100407, 2023.
Mukherjee, J.: “Living systems infrastructure” of Kolkata: exploring co-production of urban nature using historical urban political ecology (HUPE), Environ. Urban., 34, 32–51, https://doi.org/10.1177/09562478221084560, 2022.
Mukherjee, S. and Sundberg, T.: A transdisciplinary and collaborative urban water security framework: Developed through an interdisciplinary study in Kolkata, India, World Water Policy, 9, 519–549, https://doi.org/10.1002/wwp2.12125, 2023.
Mustafa, S. Md. T., Van Loon, A., Artur, L., Bharucha, Z., Chinyama, A., Chirindja, F., Day, R., Franchi, F., Geris, J., Hussey, S., Nesamvuni, E., Nhacume, A., Petros, A., Roden, H., Rohse, M., Tirivarombo, S., and Comte, J.-C.: Multisector Collaborative Groundwater-Surface Water Modelling Approach to Improve Resilience to Hydrological Extremes in the Limpopo River Basin, in: Advances in Geoethics and Groundwater Management: Theory and Practice for a Sustainable Development, Cham, 397–400, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59320-9_83, 2021.
Nielsen-Gammon, J. W., Banner, J. L., Cook, B. I., Tremaine, D. M., Wong, C. I., Mace, R. E., Gao, H., Yang, Z.-L., Gonzalez, M. F., Hoffpauir, R., Gooch, T., and Kloesel, K.: Unprecedented Drought Challenges for Texas Water Resources in a Changing Climate: What Do Researchers and Stakeholders Need to Know?, Earths Future, 8, e2020EF001552, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001552, 2020.
Norström, A. V., Cvitanovic, C., Löf, M. F., West, S., Wyborn, C., Balvanera, P., Bednarek, A. T., Bennett, E. M., Biggs, R., de Bremond, A., Campbell, B. M., Canadell, J. G., Carpenter, S. R., Folke, C., Fulton, E. A., Gaffney, O., Gelcich, S., Jouffray, J.-B., Leach, M., Le Tissier, M., Martín-López, B., Louder, E., Loutre, M.-F., Meadow, A. M., Nagendra, H., Payne, D., Peterson, G. D., Reyers, B., Scholes, R., Speranza, C. I., Spierenburg, M., Stafford-Smith, M., Tengö, M., van der Hel, S., van Putten, I., and Österblom, H.: Principles for knowledge co-production in sustainability research, Nat. Sustain., 3, 182–190, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0448-2, 2020.
Ocampo-Melgar, A., Barría, P., Chadwick, C., and Rivas, C.: Cooperation under conflict: participatory hydrological modeling for science policy dialogues for the Aculeo Lake, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5103–5118, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5103-2022, 2022.
Paneque, P., Lafuente, R., and Vargas, J.: Public Attitudes toward Water Management Measures and Droughts: A Study in Southern Spain, Water, 10, 369, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10040369, 2018.
Pham, Y., Reardon-Smith, K., Mushtaq, S., and Deo, R. C.: Feedback modelling of the impacts of drought: A case study in coffee production systems in Viet Nam, Clim. Risk Manag., 30, 100255, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100255, 2020.
Piemontese, L., Castelli, G., Limones, N., Grazio, A., and Bresci, E.: Large-scale siting of sand dams: A participatory approach and application in Angolan drylands, Land Degrad. Dev., 34, 844–858, https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.4500, 2023.
Piemontese, L., Terzi, S., Di Baldassarre, G., Menestrey Schwieger, D. A., Castelli, G., and Bresci, E.: Over-reliance on water infrastructure can hinder climate resilience in pastoral drylands, Nat. Clim. Change, 14, 267–274, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-01929-z, 2024.
Porter, J. J. and Dessai, S.: Mini-me: Why do climate scientists' misunderstand users and their needs?, Environ. Sci. Policy, 77, 9–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.07.004, 2017.
Rachunok, B. and Fletcher, S.: Socio-hydrological drought impacts on urban water affordability, Nat. Water, 1, 83–94, https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-022-00009-w, 2023.
Rahaman, M. M. and Varis, O.: Integrated water resources management: evolution, prospects and future challenges, Sustain. Sci. Pract. Policy, 1, 15–21, https://doi.org/10.1080/15487733.2005.11907961, 2005.
Rangecroft, S., Birkinshaw, S., Rohse, M., Day, R., McEwen, L., Makaya, E., and Van Loon, A.: Hydrological modelling as a tool for interdisciplinary workshops on future drought, Prog. Phys. Geogr. Earth Environ., 42, 237–256, https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133318766802, 2018.
Raudsepp-Hearne, C., Peterson, G. D., Bennett, E. M., Biggs, R., Norström, A. V., Pereira, L., Vervoort, J., Iwaniec, D. M., McPhearson, T., Olsson, P., Hichert, T., Falardeau, M., and Aceituno, A. J.: Seeds of good anthropocenes: developing sustainability scenarios for Northern Europe, Sustain. Sci., 15, 605–617, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-019-00714-8, 2020.
Reed, M. S.: Stakeholder participation for environmental management: A literature review, Biol. Conserv., 141, 2417–2431, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2008.07.014, 2008.
Reed, M. S., Graves, A., Dandy, N., Posthumus, H., Hubacek, K., Morris, J., Prell, C., Quinn, C. H., and Stringer, L. C.: Who's in and why? A typology of stakeholder analysis methods for natural resource management, J. Environ. Manage., 90, 1933–1949, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.01.001, 2009.
Rojas, R., Castilla-Rho, J., Bennison, G., Bridgart, R., Prats, C., and Claro, E.: Participatory and Integrated Modelling under Contentious Water Use in Semiarid Basins, Hydrology, 9, 49, https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9030049, 2022.
Rossi, L., Wens, M., de Moel, H., Cotti, D., Sabino Siemons, A.-S., Toreti, A., Maetens, W., Masante, D., Van Loon, A., Hagenlocher, M., Rudari, R., Naumann, G., Meroni, M., Avanzi, F., Isabellon, M., and Barbosa, P.: European Drought Risk Atlas, European Commission, https://doi.org/10.2760/608737, 2023.
Rusca, M. and Di Baldassarre, G.: Interdisciplinary Critical Geographies of Water: Capturing the Mutual Shaping of Society and Hydrological Flows, Water, 11, 1973, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11101973, 2019.
Rusca, M., Savelli, E., Di Baldassarre, G., Biza, A., and Messori, G.: Unprecedented droughts are expected to exacerbate urban inequalities in Southern Africa, Nat. Clim. Change, 13, 98–105, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01546-8, 2023.
Rusca, M., Sverdlik, A., Acharya, A., Basel, B., Boyd, E., Comelli, T., Dodman, D., Fraser, A., Harris, D. M., Lindersson, S., Mazzoleni, M., Mbah, M. F., Mitlin, D., Ogra, A., Pelling, M., Raffetti, E., Sultana, F., Thompson, E., Tozzi, A., Zwarteveen, M., and Messori, G.: Plural climate storylines to foster just urban futures, Nat. Cities, 1, 732–740, https://doi.org/10.1038/s44284-024-00133-6, 2024.
Sampson, D. A., Cook, E. M., Davidson, M. J., Grimm, N. B., and Iwaniec, D. M.: Simulating alternative sustainable water futures, Sustain. Sci., 15, 1199–1210, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-020-00820-y, 2020.
Sarewitz, D. and Pielke, R. A.: The neglected heart of science policy: reconciling supply of and demand for science, Environ. Sci. Policy, 10, 5–16, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2006.10.001, 2007.
Savelli, E.: Us and them: Privileged emotions of Cape Town's urban water crisis, Geoforum, 141, 103746, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2023.103746, 2023.
Savelli, E., Rusca, M., Cloke, H., Flügel, T. J., Karriem, A., and Di Baldassarre, G.: All dried up: The materiality of drought in Ladismith, South Africa, Environ. Plan. E Nat. Space, 8, 100–127, https://doi.org/10.1177/25148486221126617, 2022.
Savenije, H. H. G.: Water Resources Management Concepts and Tools: Lecture Notes, Int. Inst. Infrastruct. Hydraul. Environ. Eng. IHE Delft Neth., 170, https://www.ircwash.org/sites/default/files/210-96WA-17543.pdf (last access: 30 July 2025), 1995.
Savenije, H. H. G. and Van der Zaag, P.: Integrated water resources management: Concepts and issues, Phys. Chem. Earth Parts ABC, 33, 290–297, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2008.02.003, 2008.
Seidl, R., Brand, F. S., Stauffacher, M., Krütli, P., Le, Q. B., Spörri, A., Meylan, G., Moser, C., González, M. B., and Scholz, R. W.: Science with Society in the Anthropocene, AMBIO, 42, 5–12, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0363-5, 2013.
Singto, C., Fleskens, L., Vos, J., and Quinn, C.: Applying Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) with stakeholders to explore and codesign options for water resource interventions, Sustain. Water Resour. Manag., 6, 23, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40899-020-00383-x, 2020.
Sivapalan, M., Savenije, H. H. G., and Blöschl, G.: Socio-hydrology: A new science of people and water, Hydrol. Process., 26, 1270–1276, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8426, 2012.
Smetschka, B. and Gaube, V.: Co-creating formalized models: Participatory modelling as method and process in transdisciplinary research and its impact potentials, Environ. Sci. Policy, 103, 41–49, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2019.10.005, 2020.
Smith, N.: There's no such thing as a natural disaster, Underst. Katrina Perspect. Soc. Sci., 11, https://items.ssrc.org/understanding-katrina/theres-no-such-thing-as-a-natural-disaster/ (last access: 30 July 2025), 2006.
Sodoge, J., Reckhaus, Z., Kuhlicke, C., and Madruga de Brito, M.: Unified in diversity: Unravelling emerging knowledge on drought impact cascades via participatory modeling, Clim. Risk Manag., 46, 100652, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2024.100652, 2024.
Spaapen, J. and van Drooge, L.: Introducing `productive interactions' in social impact assessment, Res. Evaluat., 20, 211–218, https://doi.org/10.3152/095820211X12941371876742, 2011.
Srinivasan, V., Sanderson, M., Garcia, M., Konar, M., Blöschl, G., and and Sivapalan, M.: Prediction in a socio-hydrological world, Hydrol. Sci. J., 62, 338–345, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2016.1253844, 2016.
Stirling, A.: “Opening Up” and “Closing Down”: Power, Participation, and Pluralism in the Social Appraisal of Technology, Sci. Technol. Hum. Values, 33, 262–294, https://doi.org/10.1177/0162243907311265, 2008.
Streefkerk, I. N., van den Homberg, M. J. C., Whitfield, S., Mittal, N., Pope, E., Werner, M., Winsemius, H. C., Comes, T., and Ertsen, M. W.: Contextualising seasonal climate forecasts by integrating local knowledge on drought in Malawi, Clim. Serv., 25, 100268, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100268, 2022.
Sultana, F.: Embodied Intersectionalities of Urban Citizenship: Water, Infrastructure, and Gender in the Global South, Ann. Am. Assoc. Geogr., 110, 1407–1424, https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2020.1715193, 2020.
Swyngedouw, E.: Social power and the urbanization of water: flows of power, OUP Oxford, https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198233916.001.0001, 2004.
Swyngedouw, E.: The Political Economy and Political Ecology of the Hydro-Social Cycle, J. Contemp. Water Res. Educ., 142, 56–60, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1936-704X.2009.00054.x, 2009.
ter Horst, R., Alba, R., Vos, J., Rusca, M., Godinez-Madrigal, J., Babel, L. V., Veldwisch, G. J., Venot, J.-P., Bonté, B., Walker, D. W., and Krueger, T.: Making a case for power-sensitive water modelling: a literature review, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 4157–4186, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-4157-2024, 2024.
Thaler, T. and Levin-Keitel, M.: Multi-level stakeholder engagement in flood risk management–A question of roles and power: Lessons from England, Environ. Sci. Policy, 55, 292–301, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.04.007, 2016.
Thompson, M. A., Owen, S., Lindsay, J. M., Leonard, G. S., and Cronin, S. J.: Scientist and stakeholder perspectives of transdisciplinary research: Early attitudes, expectations, and tensions, Environ. Sci. Policy, 74, 30–39, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.04.006, 2017.
Turner, M. D.: Production of environmental knowledge: Scientists, complex natures, and the question of agency, Knowing Nat. Conversat. Intersect. Polit. Ecol. Sci. Stud. Univ. Chic. Press Chic., 25–29, https://www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi/10.7208/978022 6301440-002/html?srsltid=AfmBOorxHJL0Bni4huA1Z8v9ZB BsNo6KjmEKa83pXFtxydcmnGHw9zJ_ (last access: 30 July 2025), 2011.
Turnhout, E., Metze, T., Wyborn, C., Klenk, N., and Louder, E.: The politics of co-production: participation, power, and transformation, Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain., 42, 15–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2019.11.009, 2020.
Usón, T. J., Henríquez, C., and Dame, J.: Disputed water: Competing knowledge and power asymmetries in the Yali Alto basin, Chile, Geoforum, 85, 247–258, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2017.07.029, 2017.
van Beek, E. and Arriens, W. L.: Water Security: Putting the Concept into Practice, Global Water Partnership (GWP), ISBN 978-91-87823-07-7, https://www.gwp.org/globalassets/global/toolbox/publications/background-papers/gwp_tec20_web.pdf (last access: 30 July 2025), 2016.
Van Loon, A. F., Stahl, K., Di Baldassarre, G., Clark, J., Rangecroft, S., Wanders, N., Gleeson, T., Van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Tallaksen, L. M., Hannaford, J., Uijlenhoet, R., Teuling, A. J., Hannah, D. M., Sheffield, J., Svoboda, M., Verbeiren, B., Wagener, T., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3631–3650, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016, 2016a.
Van Loon, A. F., Gleeson, T., Clark, J., Van Dijk, A. I. J. M., Stahl, K., Hannaford, J., Di Baldassarre, G., Teuling, A. J., Tallaksen, L. M., Uijlenhoet, R., Hannah, D. M., Sheffield, J., Svoboda, M., Verbeiren, B., Wagener, T., Rangecroft, S., Wanders, N., and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Drought in the Anthropocene, Nat. Geosci., 9, 89–91, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2646, 2016b.
Vanelli, F. M., Kobiyama, M., and de Brito, M. M.: To which extent are socio-hydrology studies truly integrative? The case of natural hazards and disaster research, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2301–2317, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2301-2022, 2022.
Vedeld, T.: The Co-creation Paradox: Small Towns and the Promise and Limits of Collaborative Governance for Low-Carbon, Sustainable Futures, Scand. J. Public Adm., 26, 45–70, https://doi.org/10.58235/sjpa.v26i3.7006, 2022.
Venot, J.-P., Vos, J., Molle, F., Zwarteveen, M., Veldwisch, G. J., Kuper, M., Mdee, A., Ertsen, M., Boelens, R., Cleaver, F., Lankford, B., Swatuk, L., Linton, J., Harris, L. M., Kemerink-Seyoum, J., Kooy, M., and Schwartz, K.: A bridge over troubled waters, Nat. Sustain., 5, 92–92, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00835-y, 2022.
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Peña-Angulo, D., Murphy, C., López-Moreno, J. I., Tomas-Burguera, M., Domínguez-Castro, F., Tian, F., Eklundh, L., Cai, Z., Alvarez-Farizo, B., Noguera, I., Camarero, J. J., Sánchez-Salguero, R., Gazol, A., Grainger, S., Conradt, T., Boincean, B., and El Kenawy, A.: The complex multi-sectoral impacts of drought: Evidence from a mountainous basin in the Central Spanish Pyrenees, Sci. Total Environ., 769, 144702, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144702, 2021.
Wens, M., Veldkamp, T. I. E., Mwangi, M., Johnson, J. M., Lasage, R., Haer, T., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Simulating Small-Scale Agricultural Adaptation Decisions in Response to Drought Risk: An Empirical Agent-Based Model for Semi-Arid Kenya, Front. Water, 2, https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2020.00015, 2020.
Wesselink, A., Kooy, M., and Warner, J.: Socio-hydrology and hydrosocial analysis: toward dialogues across disciplines, WIREs Water, 4, e1196, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1196, 2017.
Wheater, H. S. and Gober, P.: Water security and the science agenda, Water Resour. Res., 51, 5406–5424, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR016892, 2015.
White, G. F.: Human adjustment to floods: Department of geography research paper No. 29, Chic. IL Univ. Chic., https://biotech.law.lsu.edu/climate/docs/Human_Adj_Floods_White.pdf (last access: 31 July 2025), 1945.
Wilhite, D. A. and Glantz, M. H.: Understanding: the Drought Phenomenon: The Role of Definitions, Water Int., 10, 111–120, https://doi.org/10.1080/02508068508686328, 1985.
Wilhite, D. A., Svoboda, M. D., and Hayes, M. J.: Understanding the complex impacts of drought: A key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparedness, Water Resour. Manag., 21, 763–774, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9076-5, 2007.
Zwarteveen, M., Kemerink-Seyoum, J. S., Kooy, M., Evers, J., Guerrero, T. A., Batubara, B., Biza, A., Boakye-Ansah, A., Faber, S., Cabrera Flamini, A., Cuadrado-Quesada, G., Fantini, E., Gupta, J., Hasan, S., ter Horst, R., Jamali, H., Jaspers, F., Obani, P., Schwartz, K., Shubber, Z., Smit, H., Torio, P., Tutusaus, M., and Wesselink, A.: Engaging with the politics of water governance, WIREs Water, 4, e1245, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1245, 2017.
Short summary
Despite transdisciplinary approaches being increasingly explored to study droughts and their impacts, their depth and breadth are yet to be fully exploited. By integrating insights from different research fields, we present five key dimensions to deepen and broaden the knowledge co-creation process for drought impact studies. Emphasizing social dynamics and power imbalances, we support hydrologists in developing more integrated, power-sensitive, inclusive, situated, and reflexive studies.
Despite transdisciplinary approaches being increasingly explored to study droughts and their...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint