Articles | Volume 25, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2565-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2565-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Preface
| 
29 Jul 2025
Preface |
| 29 Jul 2025
| 29 Jul 2025
Preface: Hydro-meteorological extremes and hazards: vulnerability, risk, impacts, and mitigation
Department of Geosciences, University of Padova, Padua, Italy
Nadav Peleg
Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Expertise Center for Climate Extremes, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
Elena Cristiano
Department of Civil, Environmental Engineering and Architecture, University of Cagliari, Cagliari, Italy
Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA
Federica Remondi
Swiss Re Ltd, Zurich, Switzerland
Paolo Tarolli
Department of Land Environment Agriculture and Forestry, University of Padova, Padua, Italy
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The fate of liquid water from melting snow in winter and spring is difficult to understand in the mountains. This work uses uncommon methods to accurately track the dynamics of snowmelt and infiltration at different depths in the ground and at different altitudes. The results show that melting snow quickly infiltrates into the upper layers of the soil but is also quickly transferred into the surface layer of the soil along the slopes towards the river.
Talia Rosin, Francesco Marra, and Efrat Morin
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Short summary
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This study compared global satellite and one reanalysis precipitation dataset to assess diurnal variability. We found that all datasets capture key diurnal precipitation patterns, with maximum precipitation in the afternoon over land and early morning over the ocean. However, there are differences in the exact timing and amount of precipitation. This suggests that it is better to use a combination of datasets for potential applications rather than relying on a single dataset.
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new physical-based method for estimating extreme sub-hourly precipitation return levels (i.e., intensity–duration–frequency, IDF, curves), which are critical for the estimation of future floods. The proposed model, named TENAX, incorporates temperature as a covariate in a physically consistent manner. It has only a few parameters and can be easily set for any climate station given sub-hourly precipitation and temperature data are available.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, Wilmalis Rodriguez, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Binghao Lu, Dongjin Song, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-120, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-120, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study comprehends and predicts the socioeconomic effects of floods in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. We proposed a machine-learning strategy for mapping flood damages. We predicted the Lifeyears Index (LYI), which quantifies the financial cost and loss of life caused by floods, using variables including climate, geomorphology, and population. The study's overall goal is to offer useful information on flood susceptibility and subsequent risk mapping in the HMA region.
Stefan Steger, Mateo Moreno, Alice Crespi, Peter James Zellner, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Francesco Marra, Robin Kohrs, Jason Goetz, Volkmar Mair, and Massimiliano Pittore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1483–1506, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1483-2023, 2023
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We present a novel data-driven modelling approach to determine season-specific critical precipitation conditions for landslide occurrence. It is shown that the amount of precipitation required to trigger a landslide in South Tyrol varies from season to season. In summer, a higher amount of preparatory precipitation is required to trigger a landslide, probably due to denser vegetation and higher temperatures. We derive dynamic thresholds that directly relate to hit rates and false-alarm rates.
Nadav Peleg, Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Grégoire Mariéthoz, Lionel Benoit, João P. Leitão, and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023
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Eleonora Dallan, Francesco Marra, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Marani, Giuseppe Formetta, Christoph Schär, and Marco Borga
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1133–1149, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1133-2023, 2023
Short summary
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Shalev Siman-Tov and Francesco Marra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1079–1093, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1079-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Debris flows represent a threat to infrastructure and the population. In arid areas, they are observed when heavy rainfall hits steep slopes with sediments. Here, we use digital surface models and radar rainfall data to detect and characterize the triggering and non-triggering rainfall conditions. We find that rainfall intensity alone is insufficient to explain the triggering. We suggest that antecedent rainfall could represent a critical factor for debris flow triggering in arid regions.
Michael Schirmer, Adam Winstral, Tobias Jonas, Paolo Burlando, and Nadav Peleg
The Cryosphere, 16, 3469–3488, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3469-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3469-2022, 2022
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Rain is highly variable in time at a given location so that there can be both wet and dry climate periods. In this study, we quantify the effects of this natural climate variability and other sources of uncertainty on changes in flooding events due to rain on snow (ROS) caused by climate change. For ROS events with a significant contribution of snowmelt to runoff, the change due to climate was too small to draw firm conclusions about whether there are more ROS events of this important type.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
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Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, and Efrat Morin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1439–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1439-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1439-2022, 2022
Short summary
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Jonathan Rizzi, Ana M. Tarquis, Anne Gobin, Mikhail Semenov, Wenwu Zhao, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3873–3877, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3873-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3873-2021, 2021
Yoav Ben Dor, Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, Yehouda Enzel, Achim Brauer, Markus Julius Schwab, and Efrat Morin
Clim. Past, 17, 2653–2677, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2653-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2653-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Laminated sediments from the deepest part of the Dead Sea unravel the hydrological response of the eastern Mediterranean to past climate changes. This study demonstrates the importance of geological archives in complementing modern hydrological measurements that do not fully capture natural hydroclimatic variability, which is crucial to configure for understanding the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in subtropical regions.
Pengzhi Zhao, Daniel Joseph Fallu, Sara Cucchiaro, Paolo Tarolli, Clive Waddington, David Cockcroft, Lisa Snape, Andreas Lang, Sebastian Doetterl, Antony G. Brown, and Kristof Van Oost
Biogeosciences, 18, 6301–6312, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6301-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-6301-2021, 2021
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We investigate the factors controlling the soil organic carbon (SOC) stability and temperature sensitivity of abandoned prehistoric agricultural terrace soils. Results suggest that the burial of former topsoil due to terracing provided an SOC stabilization mechanism. Both the soil C : N ratio and SOC mineral protection regulate soil SOC temperature sensitivity. However, which mechanism predominantly controls SOC temperature sensitivity depends on the age of the buried terrace soils.
Mihai Ciprian Mărgărint, Mihai Niculiță, Giulia Roder, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3251–3283, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3251-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3251-2021, 2021
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Local stakeholders' knowledge plays a deciding role in emergencies, supporting rescue officers in natural hazard events; coordinating; and assisting, both physically and psychologically, the affected populations. Their risk perception was assessed using a questionnaire for an area in north-eastern Romania. The results show low preparedness and reveal substantial distinctions among stakeholders and different risks based on their cognitive and behavioral roles in their communities.
A. Masiero, P. Dabove, V. Di Pietra, M. Piragnolo, A. Vettore, S. Cucchiaro, A. Guarnieri, P. Tarolli, C. Toth, V. Gikas, H. Perakis, K.-W. Chiang, L. M. Ruotsalainen, S. Goel, and J. Gabela
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLIII-B1-2021, 111–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B1-2021-111-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLIII-B1-2021-111-2021, 2021
Yair Rinat, Francesco Marra, Moshe Armon, Asher Metzger, Yoav Levi, Pavel Khain, Elyakom Vadislavsky, Marcelo Rosensaft, and Efrat Morin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 917–939, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-917-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-917-2021, 2021
Short summary
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Flash floods are among the most devastating and lethal natural hazards worldwide. The study of such events is important as flash floods are poorly understood and documented processes, especially in deserts. A small portion of the studied basin (1 %–20 %) experienced extreme rainfall intensities resulting in local flash floods of high magnitudes. Flash floods started and reached their peak within tens of minutes. Forecasts poorly predicted the flash floods mostly due to location inaccuracy.
Mariam Khanam, Giulia Sofia, Marika Koukoula, Rehenuma Lazin, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 587–605, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-587-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-587-2021, 2021
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Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers, leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multihazard scenario events are ignored. In this paper, we present a general framework to investigate current and future climate compound-event flood impact on coastal critical infrastructures such as power grid substations.
Faith E. Taylor, Paolo Tarolli, and Bruce D. Malamud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2585–2590, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2585-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2585-2020, 2020
Cited articles
Abbate, A., Mancusi, L., Apadula, F., Frigerio, A., Papini, M., and Longoni, L.: CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment): a new model for geo-hydrological hazard assessment at the basin scale, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, 2024. a, b
Andreadis, K. M., Wing, O. E., Colven, E., Gleason, C. J., Bates, P. D., and Brown, C. M.: Urbanizing the floodplain: global changes of imperviousness in flood-prone areas, Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 104024, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9197, 2022. a
Birien, T. and Gauthier, F.: Assessing the relationship between weather conditions and rockfall using terrestrial laser scanning to improve risk management, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 343–360, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-343-2023, 2023. a
Bogaard, T. and Greco, R.: Invited perspectives: Hydrological perspectives on precipitation intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation: proposing hydro-meteorological thresholds, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 31–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-31-2018, 2018. a, b
Borga, M., Stoffel, M., Marchi, L., Marra, F., and Jacob, M.: Hydrogeomorphic response to extreme rainfall in headwater systems: flash floods and debris flows, J. Hydrol., 518, 194–205, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.022, 2014. a
Ceola, S., Laio, F., and Montanari, A.: Satellite nighttime lights reveal increasing human exposure to floods worldwide, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7184–7190, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061859, 2014. a
Charpentier-Noyer, M., Peredo, D., Fleury, A., Marchal, H., Bouttier, F., Gaume, E., Nicolle, P., Payrastre, O., and Ramos, M.-H.: A methodological framework for the evaluation of short-range flash-flood hydrometeorological forecasts at the event scale, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, 2023. a
Cristiano, E., ten Veldhuis, M.-C., and van de Giesen, N.: Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and their effects on hydrological response in urban areas – a review, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3859–3878, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3859-2017, 2017. a
Ebers, N., Schröter, K., and Müller-Thomy, H.: Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024. a
Eilander, D., Couasnon, A., Sperna Weiland, F. C., Ligtvoet, W., Bouwman, A., Winsemius, H. C., and Ward, P. J.: Modeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally applicable framework: a pilot in the Sofala province of Mozambique, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023. a, b
Enu, K. B., Zingraff-Hamed, A., Rahman, M. A., Stringer, L. C., and Pauleit, S.: Review article: Potential of nature-based solutions to mitigate hydro-meteorological risks in sub-Saharan Africa, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 481–505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-481-2023, 2023. a, b, c
Fisher, E. M. and Knutti, R.: Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 986–991, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3110, 2016. a
Fowler, H. J., Lenderink, G., Prein, A. F., Westra, S., Allan, R. P., Ban, N., Barbero, R., Berg, P., Blenkinsop, S., Do, H. X., Guerreiro, S., Haerter, J. O., Kendon, E. J., Lewis, E., Schaer, C., Sharma, A., Villarini, G., Wasko, C., and Zhang, X.: Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes, Nat. Reviews Earth and Environment, 2, 107–122, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6, 2021. a
Houdard, C., Poupardin, A., Sergent, P., Bennabi, A., and Jeong, J.: Sensitivity analysis of erosion on the landward slope of an earthen flood defense located in southern France submitted to wave overtopping, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3111–3124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3111-2023, 2023. a
Hsu, C.-E., Serafin, K. A., Yu, X., Hegermiller, C. A., Warner, J. C., and Olabarrieta, M.: Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3895–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, 2023. a
Jones, M. W., Abatzoglou, J. T., Veraverbeke, S., Andela, N., Lasslop, G., Forkel, M., Smith, A. J., Burton, C., and Betts, R. A.: Global and regional trends and drivers of fire under climate change, Rev. Geophys., 60, e2020RG000726, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000726, 2022. a
Khanam, M., Sofia, G., Rodriguez, W., Nikolopoulos, E. I., Lu, B., Song, D., and Anagnostou, E. N.: Predictive Understanding of Socioeconomic Flood Impact in Data-Scarce Regions Based on Channel Properties and Storm Characteristics: Application in High Mountain Asia (HMA), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-120, in review, 2023. a, b
Kron, W., Löw, P., and Kundzewicz, Z. W.: Changes in risk of extreme weather events in Europe, Environ. Sci. Policy, 100, 74–83, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2019.06.007, 2019. a
Lam, M. R., Matanó, A., Van Loon, A. F., Odongo, R. A., Teklesadik, A. D., Wamucii, C. N., van den Homberg, M. J. C., Waruru, S., and Teuling, A. J.: Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023. a, b
Lewis, C., Smyth, T., Neumann, J., and Cloke, H.: Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, 2024. a
Markonis, Y., Kumar, R., Hanel, M., Rakovec, O., Màca, P., and AghaKouchak, A.: The rise of compound warm-season droughts in Europe, Sci. Adv., 7, eabb9668, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abb9668, 2021. a
Meyer, E. M. I. and Gaslikova, L.: Investigation of historical severe storms and storm tides in the German Bight with century reanalysis data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 481–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, 2024. a
Millán-Arancibia, C. and Lavado-Casimiro, W.: Rainfall thresholds estimation for shallow landslides in Peru from gridded daily data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1191–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023, 2023. a
Miller, J., Böhnisch, A., Ludwig, R., and Brunner, M. I.: Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024. a
Pakdehi, M., Ahmadisharaf, E., Nazari, B., and Cho, E.: Transferability of machine-learning-based modeling frameworks across flood events for hindcasting maximum river water depths in coastal watersheds, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3537–3559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, 2024. a
Palazzolo, N., Peres, D. J., Creaco, E., and Cancelliere, A.: Using principal component analysis to incorporate multi-layer soil moisture information in hydrometeorological thresholds for landslide prediction: an investigation based on ERA5-Land reanalysis data, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 279–291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-279-2023, 2023. a, b
Paprotny, D., Sebastian, A., Morales-Nápoles, O., and Jonkman, S. N.: Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years, Nat. Commun., 9, 1985, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04253-1, 2018. a
Patton, A. I., Luna, L. V., Roering, J. J., Jacobs, A., Korup, O., and Mirus, B. B.: Landslide initiation thresholds in data-sparse regions: application to landslide early warning criteria in Sitka, Alaska, USA, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3261–3284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3261-2023, 2023. a
Peleg, N., Torelló-Sentelles, H., Mariéthoz, G., Benoit, L., Leitão, J. P., and Marra, F.: Brief communication: The potential use of low-cost acoustic sensors to detect rainfall for short-term urban flood warnings, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1233–1240, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1233-2023, 2023. a
Piciullo, L., Calvello, M., and Cepeda, J.: Territorial early warning systems for rainfall-induced landslides, Earth-Sci. Rev., 179, 228–247, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2018.02.013, 2018. a
Rahman, K. U., Shang, S., Balkhair, K. S., Gabriel, H. F., Jadoon, K. Z., and Zaman, K.: Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024. a, b, c
Silva, A. F. R. and Eleutério, J. C.: Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023. a, b
Uwihirwe, J., Riveros, A., Wanjala, H., Schellekens, J., Sperna Weiland, F., Hrachowitz, M., and Bogaard, T. A.: Potential of satellite-derived hydro-meteorological information for landslide initiation thresholds in Rwanda, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3641–3661, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3641-2022, 2022. a, b
Viviroli, D., Sikorska-Senoner, A. E., Evin, G., Staudinger, M., Kauzlaric, M., Chardon, J., Favre, A.-C., Hingray, B., Nicolet, G., Raynaud, D., Seibert, J., Weingartner, R., and Whealton, C.: Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basin, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2891–2920, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022, 2022. a
Wang, D., Wang, M., Liu, K., and Xie, J.: An assessment of short–medium-term interventions using CAESAR-Lisflood in a post-earthquake mountainous area, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023. a, b
Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., van Beek, L. P. H., Bierkens, M. F. P., Bouwman, A., Jongman, B., Kwadijk, J. C. J., Ligtvoet, W., Lucas, P. L., van Vuuren, D. P., and Ward, P. J.: Global drivers of future river flood risk, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 381–385, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2893, 2016. a
Zhang, Y., Liu, K., Ni, X., Wang, M., Zheng, J., Liu, M., and Yu, D.: Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024. a
Short summary
Climate change is escalating the risks related to hydro-meteorological extremes. This preface introduces a special issue originating from a European Geosciences Union (EGU) session. It highlights the challenges posed by these extremes, ranging from hazard assessment to mitigation strategies, and covers both water excess events like floods, landslides, and coastal hazards and water deficit events such as droughts and fire weather. The collection aims to advance understanding, improve resilience, and inform policy-making.
Climate change is escalating the risks related to hydro-meteorological extremes. This preface...
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