Evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow rainfall thresholds  and volume models at the 2020 Grizzly Creek  Fire in Glenwood Canyon, Colorado, USA

Rengers, Francis K.; Bower, Samuel; Knapp, Andrew; Kean, Jason W.; vonLembke, Danielle W.; Thomas, Matthew A.; Kostelnik, Jaime; Barnhart, Katherine R.; Bethel, Matthew; Gartner, Joseph E.; Hille, Madeline; Staley, Dennis M.; Anderson, Justin K.; Roberts, Elizabeth K.; DeLong, Stephen B.; Lane, Belize; Ridgway, Paxton; Murphy, Brendan P.

doi:10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024

Articles | Volume 24, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 24, issue 6

Research article

|

28 Jun 2024

Research article |

| 28 Jun 2024

Evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow rainfall thresholds and volume models at the 2020 Grizzly Creek Fire in Glenwood Canyon, Colorado, USA

Francis K. Rengers, Samuel Bower, Andrew Knapp, Jason W. Kean, Danielle W. vonLembke, Matthew A. Thomas, Jaime Kostelnik, Katherine R. Barnhart, Matthew Bethel, Joseph E. Gartner, Madeline Hille, Dennis M. Staley, Justin K. Anderson, Elizabeth K. Roberts, Stephen B. DeLong, Belize Lane, Paxton Ridgway, and Brendan P. Murphy

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Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Sep 2023	89	20	2	111
Oct 2023	79	33	4	116
Nov 2023	57	17	1	75
Dec 2023	23	17	4	44
Jan 2024	69	17	3	89
Feb 2024	44	17	3	64
Mar 2024	79	23	7	109
Apr 2024	61	8	2	71
May 2024	22	22	4	48
Jun 2024	145	21	9	175
Jul 2024	216	70	15	301
Aug 2024	125	28	10	163
Sep 2024	113	16	6	135
Oct 2024	433	20	1	454
Nov 2024	85	17	4	106
Dec 2024	85	23	0	108
Jan 2025	62	17	3	82
Feb 2025	58	27	1	86
Mar 2025	92	33	4	129
Apr 2025	85	45	2	132
May 2025	119	31	1	151
Jun 2025	143	125	8	276
Jul 2025	119	40	3	162
Aug 2025	272	64	1	337
Sep 2025	509	74	4	587
Oct 2025	126	79	4	209
Nov 2025	126	71	5	202
Dec 2025	230	102	10	342
Jan 2026	206	170	18	394
Feb 2026	192	63	9	264
Mar 2026	169	407	14	590
Apr 2026	189	246	6	441
May 2026	168	176	5	349

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 19 Sep 2023)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Sep 2023	89	20	2	111
Oct 2023	79	33	4	116
Nov 2023	57	17	1	75
Dec 2023	23	17	4	44
Jan 2024	69	17	3	89
Feb 2024	44	17	3	64
Mar 2024	79	23	7	109
Apr 2024	61	8	2	71
May 2024	22	22	4	48
Jun 2024	145	21	9	175
Jul 2024	216	70	15	301
Aug 2024	125	28	10	163
Sep 2024	113	16	6	135
Oct 2024	433	20	1	454
Nov 2024	85	17	4	106
Dec 2024	85	23	0	108
Jan 2025	62	17	3	82
Feb 2025	58	27	1	86
Mar 2025	92	33	4	129
Apr 2025	85	45	2	132
May 2025	119	31	1	151
Jun 2025	143	125	8	276
Jul 2025	119	40	3	162
Aug 2025	272	64	1	337
Sep 2025	509	74	4	587
Oct 2025	126	79	4	209
Nov 2025	126	71	5	202
Dec 2025	230	102	10	342
Jan 2026	206	170	18	394
Feb 2026	192	63	9	264
Mar 2026	169	407	14	590
Apr 2026	189	246	6	441
May 2026	168	176	5	349

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Short summary

Every year the U.S. Geological Survey produces 50–100 postfire debris-flow hazard assessments using models for debris-flow likelihood and volume. To refine these models they must be tested with datasets that clearly document rainfall, debris-flow response, and debris-flow volume. These datasets are difficult to obtain, but this study developed and analyzed a postfire dataset with more than 100 postfire storm responses over a 2-year period. We also proposed ways to improve these models.


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