Articles | Volume 24, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Jun 2024
Research article |
| 13 Jun 2024
| 13 Jun 2024
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
Christoph Nathanael von Matt
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Regula Muelchi
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich Airport, Zurich, Switzerland
Lukas Gudmundsson
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Olivia Martius
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Related authors
No articles found.
Sarah Schöngart, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Peter Pfleiderer, Quentin Lejeune, Shruti Nath, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8283–8320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation and temperature are two of the most impact-relevant climatic variables. Yet, projecting future precipitation and temperature data under different emission scenarios relies on complex models that are computationally expensive. In this study, we propose a method that allows us to generate monthly means of local precipitation and temperature at low computational costs. Our modelling framework is particularly useful for all downstream applications of climate model data.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Hugo Banderier, Alexandre Tuel, Tim Woollings, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3029, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The jet stream is the main feature of the upper level flow, and drives the weather at the surface. It is stronger and better defined in winter, and has mostly been studied in that season. However, it is very important for (extreme) weather in summer. In this work, we improve and use two existing and complementary methods to study the jet stream(s) in the Euro-Atlantic sector, with a focus on summer. We find that our methods can verify each other and agree on interesting signals and trends.
Duncan Pappert, Alexandre Tuel, Dim Coumou, Mathieu Vrac, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2980, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2980, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the mechanisms that characterise long-lasting (persistent) and short hot spells in Europe in a comparative framework. By analysing weather data, we found that long spells in Southwestern Europe are typically preceded by dry soil conditions and driven by multiple persistence-inducing mechanisms. In contrast, short spells occur in a more transient atmospheric situation and exhibit fewer drivers. Understanding persistent heat extremes can help improve their prediction.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Olivia Martius, and Julian Quinting
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2878, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2878, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An accurate representation of synoptic weather systems in climate models is required to estimate their societal and economic impacts under climate warming. Current climate models poorly represent the frequency of atmospheric blocking. Few studies have analysed the role of moist processes as a source of bias of blocks. Here, we implement ELIAS2.0, a deep learning tool, to validate the representation of moist processes in CMIP6 models and their link to the Euro-Atlantic blocking biases.
Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Alice Portal, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1079–1101, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We identify situations when rain and wind, rain and wave, or heat and dust hazards co-occur within Mediterranean cyclones. These hazard combinations are associated with risk to infrastructure, risk of coastal flooding and risk of respiratory issues. The presence of Mediterranean cyclones is associated with increased probability of all three hazard combinations. We identify weather configurations and cyclone structures, particularly those associated with specific co-occurrence combinations.
Alice Portal, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1043–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mediterranean cyclones are associated with extended rain, wind, and wave impacts. Although beneficial for regional water resources, their passage may induce extreme weather, which is especially impactful when multiple hazards combine together. Here we show how the passage of Mediterranean cyclones increases the likelihood of rain–wind and wave–wind compounding and how compound–cyclone statistics vary by region and season, depending on the presence of specific airflows around the cyclone.
Jérôme Kopp, Alessandro Hering, Urs Germann, and Olivia Martius
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 4529–4552, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4529-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4529-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a verification of two products based on weather radars to detect the presence of hail and estimate its size. Radar products are remote detection of hail, so they must be verified against ground-based observations. We use reports from users of the Swiss Weather Services phone app to do the verification. We found that the product estimating the presence of hail provides fair results but that it should be recalibrated and that estimating the hail size with radar is more challenging.
Basil Kraft, Michael Schirmer, William H. Aeberhard, Massimiliano Zappa, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Lukas Gudmundsson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-993, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses deep learning to predict spatially contiguous water runoff in Switzerland from 1962–2023. It outperforms traditional models, requiring less data and computational power. Key findings include increased dry years and summer water scarcity. This method offers significant advancements in water monitoring.
Dominik L. Schumacher, Mariam Zachariah, Friederike Otto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Dorothy Heinrich, Julie Arrighi, Maarten van Aalst, Mathias Hauser, Martin Hirschi, Verena Bessenbacher, Lukas Gudmundsson, Hiroko K. Beaudoing, Matthew Rodell, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Luke J. Harrington, Flavio Lehner, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 131–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2022 summer was accompanied by widespread soil moisture deficits, including an unprecedented drought in Europe. Combining several observation-based estimates and models, we find that such an event has become at least 5 and 20 times more likely due to human-induced climate change in western Europe and the northern extratropics, respectively. Strong regional warming fuels soil desiccation; hence, projections indicate even more potent future droughts as we progress towards a 2 °C warmer world.
Yann Quilcaille, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1333–1362, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1333-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Climate models are powerful tools, but they have high computational costs, hindering their use in exploring future climate extremes. We demonstrate MESMER-X, the only existing emulator for spatial climate extremes (heatwaves, fires, droughts) that mimics all of their relevant properties. Thanks to its negligible computational cost, MESMER-X may greatly accelerate the exploration of future climate extremes or enable the integration of climate extremes in economic and financial models.
Shruti Nath, Lukas Gudmundsson, Jonas Schwaab, Gregory Duveiller, Steven J. De Hertog, Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Carl F. Schleussner, Wim Thiery, and Quentin Lejeune
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4283–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tree cover changes play a significant role in climate mitigation and adaptation. Their regional impacts are key in informing national-level decisions and prioritising areas for conservation efforts. We present a first step towards exploring these regional impacts using a simple statistical device, i.e. emulator. The emulator only needs to train on climate model outputs representing the maximal impacts of aff-, re-, and deforestation, from which it explores plausible in-between outcomes itself.
Ryan S. Padrón, Lukas Gudmundsson, Laibao Liu, Vincent Humphrey, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Biogeosciences, 19, 5435–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The answer to how much carbon land ecosystems are projected to remove from the atmosphere until 2100 is different for each Earth system model. We find that differences across models are primarily explained by the annual land carbon sink dependence on temperature and soil moisture, followed by the dependence on CO2 air concentration, and by average climate conditions. Our insights on why each model projects a relatively high or low land carbon sink can help to reduce the underlying uncertainty.
Verena Bessenbacher, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, and Lukas Gudmundsson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4569–4596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4569-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4569-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Earth observations have many missing values. They are often filled using information from spatial and temporal contexts that mostly ignore information from related observed variables. We propose the gap-filling method CLIMFILL that additionally uses information from related variables. We test CLIMFILL using gap-free reanalysis data of variables related to soil–moisture climate interactions. CLIMFILL creates estimates for the missing values that recover the original dependence structure.
Lea Beusch, Zebedee Nicholls, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Malte Meinshausen, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2085–2103, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2085-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We introduce the first chain of computationally efficient Earth system model (ESM) emulators to translate user-defined greenhouse gas emission pathways into regional temperature change time series accounting for all major sources of climate change projection uncertainty. By combining the global mean emulator MAGICC with the spatially resolved emulator MESMER, we can derive ESM-specific and constrained probabilistic emulations to rapidly provide targeted climate information at the local scale.
Hong Xuan Do, Fang Zhao, Seth Westra, Michael Leonard, Lukas Gudmundsson, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1543–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We presented a global comparison between observed and simulated trends in a flood index over the 1971–2005 period using the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive and six global hydrological models available through The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Streamflow simulations over 2006–2099 period robustly project high flood hazard in several regions. These high-flood-risk areas, however, are under-sampled by the current global streamflow databases.
Ryan S. Padrón, Lukas Gudmundsson, Dominik Michel, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 793–807, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-793-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-793-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We focus on the net exchange of water between land and air via evapotranspiration and dew during the night. We provide, for the first time, an overview of the magnitude and variability of this flux across the globe from observations and climate models. Nocturnal water loss from land is 7 % of total evapotranspiration on average and can be greater than 15 % locally. Our results highlight the relevance of this often overlooked flux, with implications for water resources and climate studies.
Lea Beusch, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 139–159, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-139-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-139-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Earth system models (ESMs) are invaluable to study the climate system but expensive to run. Here, we present a statistical tool which emulates ESMs at a negligible computational cost by creating stochastic realizations of yearly land temperature field time series. Thereby, 40 ESMs are considered, and for each ESM, a single simulation is required to train the tool. The resulting ESM-specific realizations closely resemble ESM simulations not employed during training at point to regional scales.
Gionata Ghiggi, Vincent Humphrey, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Lukas Gudmundsson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1655–1674, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1655-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1655-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Freshwater resources are of high societal relevance and understanding their past variability is vital to water management in the context of current and future climatic change. This study introduces GRUN: the first global gridded monthly reconstruction of runoff covering the period from 1902 to 2014. The dataset agrees on average much better with the streamflow observations than an ensemble of 13 state-of-the-art global hydrological models and will foster the understanding of freshwater dynamics.
Inne Vanderkelen, Jakob Zschleischler, Lukas Gudmundsson, Klaus Keuler, Francois Rineau, Natalie Beenaerts, Jaco Vangronsveld, and Wim Thiery
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-267, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-267, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Vincent Humphrey and Lukas Gudmundsson
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1153–1170, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1153-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1153-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Because changes in freshwater availability can impact many natural ecosystems and human activities, it is crucial to better understand long-term changes in the water cycle. This dataset is a reconstruction of past changes in land water storage over the last century, obtained by combining satellite observations with historical weather data. It can be used to investigate both regional changes in freshwater availability or drought frequency and long-term changes in the global water cycle.
Hong Xuan Do, Lukas Gudmundsson, Michael Leonard, and Seth Westra
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 765–785, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-765-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-765-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The production of 30 959 daily streamflow time series in the Global Streamflow and Metadata Archive (GSIM) project is presented. The paper also describes the development of three metadata products that are freely available. Having collated an unprecedented number of stations and associated metadata, GSIM can be used to advance large-scale hydrological research and improve understanding of the global water cycle.
Lukas Gudmundsson, Hong Xuan Do, Michael Leonard, and Seth Westra
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 787–804, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-787-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-787-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Time-series indices characterizing streamflow at annual, seasonal and monthly resolution at more than 30 000 stations around the world are presented. The data belong to the Global Streamflow and Metadata Archive (GSIM) and allow for an assessment of water balance components, hydrological extremes and the seasonality of water availability. The quality of the data is tested using automated methods to aid potential users to gauge the suitability of the data for specific applications.
Peter Greve, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 227–240, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-227-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-227-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing projected hydroclimatological changes is crucial, but associated with large uncertainties. We statistically assess here the response of precipitation and water availability to global temperature change, enabling us to estimate the significance of drying/wetting tendencies under anthropogenic climate change. We further show that opting for a 1.5 K warming target just slightly influences the mean response but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes.
Lukas Gudmundsson and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 279–295, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-279-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-279-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the scientific and societal relevance of freshwater, there are to date no observation-based pan-European runoff estimates available. Here we employ state-of-the-art techniques to estimate monthly runoff rates in Europe. The new data product is based on an unprecedented collection of river flow observations which are combined with atmospheric variables using machine learning. Potential applications of the presented product include climatological assessments and drought monitoring.
Peter Greve, Lukas Gudmundsson, Boris Orlowsky, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2195–2205, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2195-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2195-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The widely used Budyko framework is by definition limited to steady-state conditions. In this study we analytically derive a new, two-parameter formulation of the Budyko framework that represents conditions under which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation. This is technically achieved by rotating the water supply limit within the Budyko space. The new formulation is shown to be capable to represent first-order seasonal dynamics within the hydroclimatological system.
L. Gudmundsson and S. I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2859–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2859-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2859-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Water storages and fluxes on land are key variables in the Earth system. To provide context for local investigations and to understand phenomena that emerge at large spatial scales, information on continental freshwater dynamics is needed. This paper presents a methodology to estimate continental-scale runoff on a 0.5° spatial grid, which combines the advantages of in situ observations with the power of machine learning regression. The resulting runoff estimates compare well with observations.
L. Gudmundsson and S. I. Seneviratne
Proc. IAHS, 369, 75–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-75-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-75-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Recent climate projections suggest changes in European drought frequency, indicating increased drought risk in the south and less droughts in the north. Here we show that a similar change pattern can be identified in the observed record. The results raise the question whether observed changes in European drought frequency are a consequence of anthropogenic climate change.
L. Gudmundsson and S. I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-13191-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-13191-2013, 2013
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
Brief communication: Stay local or go global? On the construction of plausible counterfactual scenarios to assess flash flood hazards
Integrating susceptibility maps of multiple hazards and building exposure distribution: a case study of wildfires and floods for the province of Quang Nam, Vietnam
Tangible and intangible ex post assessment of flood-induced damage to cultural heritage
A multivariate statistical framework for mixed storm types in compound flood analysis
Invited perspectives: safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments
Influence of building collapse on pluvial and fluvial flood inundation of metro stations in central Shanghai
Impact of drought hazards on flow regimes in anthropogenically impacted streams: an isotopic perspective on climate stress
The effect of wildfires on flood risk: a multi-hazard flood risk approach for the Ebro River basin, Spain
Modelling hazards impacting the flow regime in the Hranice Karst due to the proposed Skalička Dam
Spatiotemporal variability of flash floods and their human impacts in the Czech Republic during the 2001–2023 period
Risk of compound flooding substantially increases in the future Mekong River delta
Transferability of machine-learning-based modeling frameworks across flood events for hindcasting maximum river water depths in coastal watersheds
Floods in the Pyrenees: a global view through a regional database
Algorithmically detected rain-on-snow flood events in different climate datasets: a case study of the Susquehanna River basin
Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
Coupling WRF with HEC-HMS and WRF-Hydro for flood forecasting in typical mountainous catchments of northern China
Multi-scale hydraulic graph neural networks for flood modelling
Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood
Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England
Exploring the use of seasonal forecasts to adapt flood insurance premiums
Are 2D shallow-water solvers fast enough for early flood warning? A comparative assessment on the 2021 Ahr valley flood event
Water depth estimate and flood extent enhancement for satellite-based inundation maps
Probabilistic flood inundation mapping through copula Bayesian multi-modeling of precipitation products
Flood occurrence and impact models for socioeconomic applications over Canada and the United States
Model-based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk at the German North Sea coast caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events
Causes of the exceptionally high number of fatalities in the Ahr valley, Germany, during the 2021 flood
An improved dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic model for efficient flood inundation prediction
Quantifying hazard resilience by modeling infrastructure recovery as a resource-constrained project scheduling problem
Hydrometeorological controls of and social response to the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain
A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany
Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale
Brief communication: SWM – stochastic weather model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-Land data
Text mining uncovers the unique dynamics of socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 multi-year drought in Germany
The value of multi-source data for improved flood damage modelling with explicit input data uncertainty treatment: INSYDE 2.0
Limited effect of the confluence angle and tributary gradient on Alpine confluence morphodynamics under intense sediment loads
The role of antecedent conditions in translating precipitation events into extreme floods at catchment scale and in a large basin context
Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines
Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica
Seasonal forecasting of local-scale soil moisture droughts with Global BROOK90: a case study of the European drought of 2018
How to mitigate flood events similar to the 1979 catastrophic floods in the lower Tagus
Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment): a new model for geo-hydrological hazard assessment at the basin scale
Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change
Using integrated hydrological–hydraulic modelling and global data sources to analyse the February 2023 floods in the Umbeluzi Catchment (Mozambique)
Impact-based flood forecasting in the Greater Horn of Africa
Brief communication: A first hydrological investigation of extreme August 2023 floods in Slovenia, Europe
Multivariate regression trees as an “explainable machine learning” approach to explore relationships between hydroclimatic characteristics and agricultural and hydrological drought severity: case of study Cesar River basin
Post-wildfire sediment source and transport modeling, empirical observations, and applied mitigation: an Arizona USA case study
Review article: Towards improved drought prediction in the Mediterranean region – modeling approaches and future directions
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4609–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods have caused significant damage in the past. To prepare for such events, we rely on historical data but face issues due to rare rainfall events, lack of data and climate change. Counterfactuals, or
what ifscenarios, simulate historical rainfall in different locations to estimate flood levels. Our new study refines this by deriving more-plausible local scenarios, using the June 2024 Bavaria flood as a case study. This method could improve preparedness for future floods.
Chinh Luu, Giuseppe Forino, Lynda Yorke, Hang Ha, Quynh Duy Bui, Hanh Hong Tran, Dinh Quoc Nguyen, Hieu Cong Duong, and Matthieu Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4385–4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a novel and integrated approach to assessing the climate hazards of floods and wildfires. We explore multi-hazard assessment and risk through a machine learning modeling approach. The process includes collecting a database of topography, climate, geology, environment, and building data; developing models for multi-hazard assessment and coding in the Google Earth Engine; and producing credible multi-hazard susceptibility and building exposure maps.
Claudia De Lucia, Michele Amaddii, and Chiara Arrighi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4317–4339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes the flood damage to cultural heritage (CH) that occurred in September 2022 in central Italy. Datasets related to flood impacts on cultural heritage are rare, and this work aims at highlighting both tangible and intangible aspects and their correlation with physical characteristics of flood (i.e. water depth and flow velocity). The results show that current knowledge and datasets are inadequate for risk assessment of CH.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Jane, James F. Booth, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4091–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
When assessing the likelihood of compound flooding, most studies ignore that it can arise from different storm types with distinct statistical characteristics. Here, we present a new statistical framework that accounts for these differences and shows how neglecting these can impact the likelihood of compound flood potential.
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4015–4030, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk assessments help us decide how to reduce the risk of flooding. Since these assessments are based on probabilities, it is hard to check their accuracy by comparing them to past data. We suggest a new way to validate these assessments, making sure they are practical for real-life decisions. This approach looks at both the technical details and the real-world situations where decisions are made. We demonstrate its practicality by applying it to flood emergency planning.
Zhi Li, Hanqi Li, Zhibo Zhang, Chaomeng Dai, and Simin Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3977–3990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study used advanced computer simulations to investigate how earthquake-induced building collapse affects flooding of the metro stations in Shanghai. Results show that the influences of building collapse on rainfall-driven and river-driven floods are different because these two types of floods have different origination and propagation mechanisms.
Maria Magdalena Warter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Christian Marx, and Chris Soulsby
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3907–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Streams are increasingly impacted by droughts and floods. Still, the amount of water needed for sustainable flows remains unclear and contested. A comparison of two streams in the Berlin–Brandenburg region of northeast Germany, using stable water isotopes, shows strong groundwater dependence with seasonal rainfall contributing to high/low flows. Understanding streamflow variability can help us assess the impacts of climate change on future water resource management.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Matthijs Janssen, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Maria del Pozo Garcia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without considering wildfires. This study, therefore, evaluates the effect of wildfires on flood risk, considering both current and future conditions for the Ebro River basin in Spain. Results show that extreme climate change increases the risk of flooding, especially when considering the effect of wildfires, highlighting the importance of adopting a multi-hazard risk management approach.
Miroslav Spano and Jaromir Riha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3683–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study examines the effects of hydrogeological hazard due to construction of the Skalička Dam near the Hranice Karst on groundwater discharges and water levels in the local karst formations downstream. A simplified pipe model was used to analyze the impact of two dam layouts: lateral and through-flow reservoirs. Results show that the through-flow scheme more significantly influences water levels and the discharge of mineral water, while the lateral layout has only negligible impact.
Rudolf Brázdil, Dominika Faturová, Monika Šulc Michalková, Jan Řehoř, Martin Caletka, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3663–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flash floods belong to natural hazards that can be enhanced in frequency, intensity, and impact during recent climate change. This paper presents a complex analysis of spatiotemporal variability and human impacts (including material damage and fatalities) of flash floods in the Czech Republic for the 2001–2023 period. The analysis generally shows no statistically significant trends in the characteristics analyzed.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Maryam Pakdehi, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Behzad Nazari, and Eunsaem Cho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3537–3559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning (ML) algorithms have increasingly received attention for modeling flood events. However, there are concerns about the transferability of these models (their capability in predicting out-of-sample and unseen events). Here, we show that ML models can be transferable for hindcasting maximum river flood depths across extreme events (four hurricanes) in a large coastal watershed (HUC6) when informed by the spatial distribution of pertinent features and underlying physical processes.
María Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Erika Pardo, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Marc Lemus-Canovas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3423–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows the first public and systematic dataset of flood episodes referring to the entire Pyrenees massif, at municipal scale, named PIRAGUA_flood. Of the 181 flood events (1981–2015) that produced 154 fatalities, 36 were transnational, with the eastern part of the massif most affected. Dominant weather types show a southern component flow, with a talweg on the Iberian Peninsula and a depression in the vicinity. A positive and significant trend was found in Nouvelle-Aquitaine.
Colin M. Zarzycki, Benjamin D. Ascher, Alan M. Rhoades, and Rachel R. McCrary
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3315–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an automated workflow to detect rain-on-snow events, which cause flooding in the northeastern United States, in climate data. Analyzing the Susquehanna River basin, this technique identified known events affecting river flow. Comparing four gridded datasets revealed variations in event frequency and severity, driven by different snowmelt and runoff estimates. This highlights the need for accurate climate data in flood management and risk prediction for these compound extremes.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Sheik Umar Jam-Jalloh, Jia Liu, Yicheng Wang, and Yuchen Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3155–3172, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper explores improving flood forecasting using advanced weather and hydrological models. By coupling the WRF model with WRF-Hydro and HEC-HMS, we achieved more accurate forecasts. WRF–WRF-Hydro excels for short, intense storms, while WRF–HEC-HMS is better for longer, evenly distributed storms. Our research shows how these models provide insights for adaptive atmospheric–hydrologic systems and aims to boost flood preparedness and response with more reliable, timely predictions.
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastiaan Nicolas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2621, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2621, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Deep learning methods are increasingly used as surrogates for spatio-temporal flood models but struggle with generalization and speed. Here, we propose a multi-resolution approach using graph neural networks that predicts dike breach floods across different meshes, topographies, and boundary conditions with high accuracy and up to 1000x speedups. The model also generalizes to larger, more complex case studies with just one additional simulation for fine-tuning.
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems, but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range: summer 2022 ~ 28 % lower and autumn 2023 ~ 42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could help water supply resilience and flood risk management.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2857–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning is essential to minimise the impact of flash floods. We explore the use of highly detailed flood models to simulate the 2021 flood event in the lower Ahr valley (Germany). Using very high-resolution models resolving individual streets and buildings, we produce detailed, quantitative, and actionable information for early flood warning systems. Using state-of-the-art computational technology, these models can guarantee very fast forecasts which allow for sufficient time to respond.
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depth and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depth quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2647–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study utilizes the global copula Bayesian model averaging technique for accurate and reliable flood modeling, especially in coastal regions. By integrating multiple precipitation datasets within this framework, we can effectively address sources of error in each dataset, leading to the generation of probabilistic flood maps. The creation of these probabilistic maps is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation in densely populated areas susceptible to extreme weather events.
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2577–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling floods at the street level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of detail. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase in displaced population of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the US.
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Belinda Rhein and Heidi Kreibich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2066, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The 2021 flood killed 190 people in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley, making it the deadliest flood in recent German history. The flash flood was extreme in terms of water levels, flow velocities and flood extent, early warning and evacuation were inadequate. Many died on the ground floor or in the street, with older and impaired individuals especially vulnerable. Clear warnings should urge people to seek safety rather than save belongings, and timely evacuations are essential.
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic Model (IM-DBCM) with two major improvements: (1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D-infinity algorithm was implemented to identify flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed, and (2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2285–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reliance on infrastructure creates vulnerabilities to disruptions caused by natural hazards. To assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, we present a framework for quantifying resilience and develop a model of recovery based upon an application of project scheduling under resource constraints. The resilience framework and recovery model were applied in a case study to assess the resilience of building infrastructure to flooding hazards in Accra, Ghana.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2147–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To identify flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent runoff reaction. Our results show that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks of a factor of 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinas, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2071–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A methodology of regional flood hazard mapping is proposed, based on data in Austria, which combines automatic methods with manual interventions to maximise efficiency and to obtain estimation accuracy similar to that of local studies. Flood discharge records from 781 stations are used to estimate flood hazard patterns of a given return period at a resolution of 2 m over a total stream length of 38 000 km. The hazard maps are used for civil protection, risk awareness and insurance purposes.
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1929–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents a stochastic weather model that produces statistically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much-needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time and spatially varying risk assessments.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1757–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects. We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it is crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1681–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE 2.0 is a tool for modelling flood damage to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
Théo St. Pierre Ostrander, Thomé Kraus, Bruno Mazzorana, Johannes Holzner, Andrea Andreoli, Francesco Comiti, and Bernhard Gems
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1607–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. A physical model was used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and (to a lesser degree) the tributary sediment concentration control morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Alexandre Mas, Guillaume Evin, Benoit Hingray, and Daniel Viviroli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-909, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Various combinations of antecedent conditions and precipitation result in floods of varying degrees. Antecedent conditions played a crucial role in generating even large. The key predictors and spatial patterns of antecedent conditions leading to flooding at the basin's outlet were distinct. Precipitation and soil moisture from almost all sub-catchments were important for more frequent floods. For rarer events, only the predictors of specific sub-catchments were important.
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, and Eric Strobl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 873–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk of extreme rainfall events causing floods is likely increasing with climate change. Flash floods, which follow immediately after extreme rainfall, are particularly difficult to forecast and assess. We develop a decision rule for flash flood classification with data on all incidents between 2001 and 2018 in Jamaica with the statistical copula method. This decision rule tells us for any rainfall event of a certain duration how intense it has to be to likely trigger a flash flood.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 681–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new version of a framework which allows us to model water balance components at any site on a local scale. Compared with the first version, the second incorporates new datasets used to set up and force the model. In particular, we highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers, etc.) the possibility to forecast, for example, soil moisture drought and thus apply the necessary measures.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus River from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of the Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate flood episodes using the exceptional floods of February 1979 as a benchmark. The results corroborate the model's capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in the lower Tagus valley.
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Pham Khanh Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 539–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global flood model built using a new terrain data set and evaluated in the Central Highlands of Vietnam.
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesco Apadula, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment) is a new physically based and spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. The main novelties consist of reproducing rainfall-induced geo-hydrological hazards such as shallow landslide, debris flow and watershed erosion through a multi-hazard approach. CRHyME was written in Python, works at a high spatial and temporal resolution, and is a tool suitable for quantifying extreme rainfall consequences at the basin scale.
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mozambique is highly exposed to the impact of floods. To reduce flood damage, it is necessary to develop mitigation measures. Hydrological software is a very useful tool for that purpose, since it allows for a precise quantification of flood hazard in different scenarios. We present a methodology to quantify flood hazard in data-scarce regions, using freely available data and software, and we show its potential by analysing the flood event that took place in the Umbeluzi Basin in February 2023.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
Nejc Bezak, Panos Panagos, Leonidas Liakos, and Matjaž Mikoš
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme flooding occurred in Slovenia in August 2023. This brief communication examines the main causes, mechanisms and effects of this event. The flood disaster of August 2023 can be described as relatively extreme and was probably the most extreme flood event in Slovenia in recent decades. The economic damage was large and could amount to well over 5 % of Slovenia's annual gross domestic product; the event also claimed three lives.
Ana Paez-Trujilo, Jeffer Cañon, Beatriz Hernandez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3863–3883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach, to assess the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
Edward Robert Schenk, Alex Wood, Allen Haden, Gabriel Baca, Jake Fleishman, and Joe Loverich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2163, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2163, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Post-wildfire flooding and debris is dangerous and damaging. This study used three different sediment models to predict post-wildfire sediment sources and transport amounts downstream of the 2019 Museum Fire in northern Arizona, USA. The predictions were compared with real-world measurements of sediment that was cleaned out of the city of Flagstaff after four large floods in 2021. Results provide avenues for continued model refinement and an example of potential mitigation strategies.
Bouchra Zellou, Nabil El Moçayd, and El Houcine Bergou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3543–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction capabilities in the Mediterranean region. We present an in-depth evaluation of current drought forecasting approaches, encompassing statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models, and highlight unexplored research opportunities. Additionally, we suggest viable directions to enhance drought prediction and early warning systems within the area.
Cited articles
Allgaier Leuch, B., Streit, K., and Brang, P.: La forêt suisse face aux changements climatiques: quelles évolutions attendre? Notice pour le practicien, vol. 59, Birmensdorf, Institut fédéral de recherches WSL, p. 12, https://www.wsl.ch/fr/publications/la-foret-suisse-face-aux-changements-climatiques-quelles-evolutions-attendre/ (last access: 21 Decemer 2023), 2017. a, b, c
Apurv, T. and Cai, X.: Drought Propagation in Contiguous U.S. Watersheds: A Process-Based Understanding of the Role of Climate and Watershed Properties, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2020WR027755, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027755, 2020. a, b
Apurv, T., Sivapalan, M., and Cai, X.: Understanding the Role of Climate Characteristics in Drought Propagation, Water Resour. Res., 53, 9304–9329, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021445, 2017. a
Arias, P. A., Bellouin, N., Coppola, E., Jones, R. G., Krinner, G., Marotzke, J., Naik, V., Palmer, M. D., Plattner, G.-K., Rogelj, J., Rojas, M., Sillmann, J., Storelvmo, T., Thorne, P. W., Trewin, B., Achuta Rao, K., Adhikary, B., Allan, R. P., Armour, K., Bala, G., Barimalala, R., Berger, S., Canadell, J. G., Cassou, C., Cherchi, A., Collins, W., Collins, W. D., Connors, S. L., Corti, S., Cruz, F., Dentener, F. J., Dereczynski, C., Di Luca, A., Diongue Niang, A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Dosio, A., Douville, H., Engelbrecht, F., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Forster, P., Fox-Kemper, B., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Fyfe, J. C., Gillett, N. P., Goldfarb, L., Gorodetskaya, I., Gutierrez, J. M., Hamdi, R., Hawkins, E., Hewitt, H. T., Hope, P., Islam, A. S., Jones, C., Kaufman, D. S., Kopp, R. E., Kosaka, Y., Kossin, J., Krakovska, S., Lee, J.-Y., Li, J., Mauritsen, T., Maycock, T., Meinshausen, M., Min, S.-K., Monteiro, P. M. S., Ngo-Duc, T., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Pirani, A., Raghavan, K., Ranasinghe, R., Ruane, A. C., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Samset, B. H., Sathyendranath, S., Seneviratne, S. I., Sörensson, A. A., Szopa, S., Takayabu, I., Tréguier, A.-M., van den Hurk, B., Vautard, R., von Schuckmann, K., Zaehle, S., Zhang, X., and Zickfeld, K.: Technical Summary, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 33–144, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.002, 2021. a, b, c
Aschwanden, H.: Die Niedrigwasserabflussmenge Q347 – Bestimmung und Abschätzung in alpinen schweizerischen Einzugsgebieten, Hydrologische Mitteilung der Landeshydrologie und -geologie, No. 18, Bern, https://www.bafu.admin.ch/bafu/de/home/themen/wasser/publikationen-studien/publikationen-wasser/die-niedrigwasserabflussmenge-q347.html (last access: 21 December2023), 1992. a
Aschwanden, H. and Kan, C.: Die Abflussmenge Q347 – eine Standortbestimmung, Hydrologische Mitteilung der Landeshydrologie und -geologie, Nr. 27, Bern, https://www.bafu.admin.ch/bafu/de/home/themen/wasser/publikationen-studien/publikationen-wasser/die-abflussmenge-q347.html (last access: 21 December 2023), 1999. a
Aschwanden, H. and Weingartner, R.: Die Abflussregimes der Schweiz, Tech. Rep. 65, Geographisches Institut der Universität Bern (GIUB), Bern, https://boris.unibe.ch/133660/ (last access: 21 December 2023), 1985. a
Ault, T. R.: On the essentials of drought in a changing climate, Science, 368, 256–260, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz5492, 2020. a
Bachmair, S., Stahl, K., Collins, K., Hannaford, J., Acreman, M., Svoboda, M., Knutson, C., Smith, K. H., Wall, N., Fuchs, B., Crossman, N. D., and Overton, I. C.: Drought indicators revisited: the need for a wider consideration of environment and society, WIREs Water, 3, 516–536, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1154, 2016. a, b, c, d, e, f
Bachmair, S., Tanguy, M., Hannaford, J., and Stahl, K.: How well do meteorological indicators represent agricultural and forest drought across Europe?, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 034042, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaafda, 2018. a
BAFU: Generalisierte Hintergrundkarte zur Darstellung hydrologischer Daten, opendata.swiss [data set], https://opendata.swiss/en/dataset/generalisierte-hintergrundkarte-zur-darstellung-hydrologischer-daten (last access: 21 December 2023), 2014.
BAFU (Eds.): Hitze und Trockenheit im Sommer 2015. Auswirkungen auf Mensch und Umwelt, Bundesamt für Umwelt BAFU, Bern, Umwelt-Zustand Nr. 1629, Tech. rep., 108 pp., https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/bafu/de/dokumente/klima/uz-umwelt-zustand/Hitze und Trockenheit im Sommer 2015.pdf.download.pdf/UZ-1629-D.pdf (last access: 20 December 2023), 2016. a
BAFU: Niedrigwasserstatistik, https://www.bafu.admin.ch/bafu/de/home/themen/thema-wasser/wasser--daten--indikatoren-und-karten/wasser--messwerte-und-statistik/niedrigwasserstatistik.html (last access: 21 December 2023), 2019. a
BAFU (Eds.): Hitze und Trockenheit im Sommer 2018. Auswirkungen auf Mensch und Umwelt. Bundesamt für Umwelt, Bern, Umwelt-Zustand Nr. 1909, Tech. rep., 91 pp., https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/bafu/de/dokumente/klima/uz-umwelt-zustand/hitze_und_trockenheit_im_sommer_2018.pdf.download.pdf/UZ-1909-D_Hitzesommer2018.pdf (last access: 20 December 2023), 2019. a, b, c, d, e
BAFU (Eds.): Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Schweizer Gewässer. Hydrologie, Gewässerökologie und Wasserwirtschaft, Bundesamt für Umwelt BAFU, Bern, Umwelt-Wissen Nr. 2101, Tech. rep., 134 pp., https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/bafu/de/dokumente/wasser/uw-umwelt-wissen/auswirkungen-des-klimawandels-auf-die-schweizer-gewaesser.pdf.download.pdf/UW-2101-D_HydroCH2018.pdf (last access: 14 December 2023), 2021. a, b, c, d, e
Berg, A. and Sheffield, J.: Climate Change and Drought: the Soil Moisture Perspective, Current Climate Change Reports, 4, 180–191, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0095-0, 2018. a, b
Brunner, M. I. and Gilleland, E.: Complex High- and Low-Flow Networks Differ in Their Spatial Correlation Characteristics, Drivers, and Changes, Water Resour. Res., 57, e2021WR030049, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR030049, 2021. a
Brunner, M. I. and Stahl, K.: Temporal hydrological drought clustering varies with climate and land-surface processes, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 034011, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acb8ca, 2023. a
Brunner, M. I. and Tallaksen, L. M.: Proneness of European Catchments to Multiyear Streamflow Droughts, Water Resour. Res., 55, 8881–8894, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025903, 2019. a, b, c, d
Brunner, M. I., Björnsen Gurung, A., Zappa, M., Zekollari, H., Farinotti, D., and Stähli, M.: Present and future water scarcity in Switzerland: Potential for alleviation through reservoirs and lakes, Sci. Total Environ., 666, 1033–1047, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.169, 2019a. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i
Brunner, M. I., Liechti, K., and Zappa, M.: Extremeness of recent drought events in Switzerland: dependence on variable and return period choice, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2311–2323, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2311-2019, 2019c. a, b
Brunner, M. I., Götte, J., Schlemper, C., and Van Loon, A. F.: Hydrological Drought Generation Processes and Severity Are Changing in the Alps, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL101776, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101776, 2023. a, b, c
BUWAL: Restwassermengen in Fliessgewässern. Wasserentnahmen, die insbesondere der Bewässerung dienen, Bern, Mitteilungen zum Gewässerschutz, No. 24, https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/bafu/de/dokumente/wasser/uw-umwelt-wissen/restwassermengeninfliessgewaessern.pdf.download.pdf/restwassermengeninfliessgewaessern.pdf (last access: 20 December 2023), 1997. a
BUWAL, BWG, MeteoSchweiz: Auswirkungen des Hitzesommers 2003 auf die Gewässer, Schriftenreihe Umwelt Nr. 369. Bern, Bundesamt für Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft, Tech. rep., 174 pp., https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/bafu/de/dokumente/wasser/uw-umwelt-wissen/auswirkungen_deshitzesommers2003aufdiegewaesser.pdf.download.pdf/auswirkungen_deshitzesommers2003aufdiegewaesser.pdf (last access: 14 December 2023), 2004. a
Calanca, P.: Climate change and drought occurrence in the Alpine region: How severe are becoming the extremes?, Global Planet. Change, 57, 151–160, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.001, 2007. a, b, c
Cammalleri, C., Barbosa, P., and Vogt, J. V.: Analysing the Relationship between Multiple-Timescale SPI and GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage in the Framework of Drought Monitoring, Water, 11, 1672, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11081672, 2019. a
Cammalleri, C., Arias-Muñoz, C., Barbosa, P., de Jager, A., Magni, D., Masante, D., Mazzeschi, M., McCormick, N., Naumann, G., Spinoni, J., and Vogt, J.: A revision of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) used in the European Drought Observatory (EDO), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 481–495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-481-2021, 2021. a
CH2018 Project Team: CH2018 – Climate Scenarios for Switzerland, National Centre for Climate Services, NCCS [data set], https://doi.org/10.18751/Climate/Scenarios/CH2018/1.0, 2018. a
de Jager, A., Corbane, C., and Szabo, F.: Recent Developments in Some Long-Term Drought Drivers, Climate, 10, 31, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10030031, 2022. a
Denissen, J. M., Teuling, A. J., Reichstein, M., and Orth, R.: Critical Soil Moisture Derived From Satellite Observations Over Europe, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2019JD031672, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031672, 2020. a, b, c
Ding, Y., Gong, X., Xing, Z., Cai, H., Zhou, Z., Zhang, D., Sun, P., and Shi, H.: Attribution of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought propagation in different climatic regions of China, Agr. Water Manage., 255, 106996, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2021.106996, 2021. a
Dirmeyer, P. A., Balsamo, G., Blyth, E. M., Morrison, R., and Cooper, H. M.: Land-Atmosphere Interactions Exacerbated the Drought and Heatwave Over Northern Europe During Summer 2018, AGU Adv., 2, e2020AV000283, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020AV000283, 2021. a
Doherty, J.: PEST: model independent parameter estimation, User Manual, Brisbane, Australia: Watermark Numerical Computing, https://pesthomepage.org/documentation (last access: 20 March 2023), 2005. a
Eekhout, J. P. C., Hunink, J. E., Terink, W., and de Vente, J.: Why increased extreme precipitation under climate change negatively affects water security, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5935–5946, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5935-2018, 2018. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Faiz, M. A., Zhang, Y., Ma, N., Baig, F., Naz, F., and Niaz, Y.: Drought indices: aggregation is necessary or is it only the researcher's choice?, Water Supply, 21, 3987–4002, https://doi.org/10.2166/ws.2021.163, 2021. a
Fischer, A. M., Keller, D. E., Liniger, M. A., Rajczak, J., Schär, C., and Appenzeller, C.: Projected changes in precipitation intensity and frequency in Switzerland: a multi-model perspective, Int. J. Climatol., 35, 3204–3219, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4162, 2015. a
Floriancic, M. G., Berghuijs, W. R., Jonas, T., Kirchner, J. W., and Molnar, P.: Effects of climate anomalies on warm-season low flows in Switzerland, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5423–5438, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5423-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Forzieri, G., Feyen, L., Rojas, R., Flörke, M., Wimmer, F., and Bianchi, A.: Ensemble projections of future streamflow droughts in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 85–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-85-2014, 2014. a, b
Fowler, K., Peel, M., Saft, M., Nathan, R., Horne, A., Wilby, R., McCutcheon, C., and Peterson, T.: Hydrological Shifts Threaten Water Resources, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2021WR031210, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021WR031210, 2022. a, b
Fowler, K. J. A., Coxon, G., Freer, J. E., Knoben, W. J. M., Peel, M. C., Wagener, T., Western, A. W., Woods, R. A., and Zhang, L.: Towards more realistic runoff projections by removing limits on simulated soil moisture deficit, J. Hydrol., 600, 126505, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126505, 2021. a
Frei, C.: Interpolation of temperature in a mountainous region using nonlinear profiles and non-Euclidean distances, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 1585–1605, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3786, 2014. a
Frei, C. and Schär, C.: A precipitation climatology of the Alps from high-resolution rain-gauge observations, Int. J. Climatol., 18, 873–900, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19980630)18:8<873::AID-JOC255>3.0.CO;2-9, 1998. a, b
Fu, Z., Ciais, P., Feldman, A. F., Gentine, P., Makowski, D., Prentice, I. C., Stoy, P. C., Bastos, A., and Wigneron, J.-P.: Critical soil moisture thresholds of plant water stress in terrestrial ecosystems, Science Advances, 8, eabq7827, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abq7827, 2022a. a, b
Fu, Z., Ciais, P., Makowski, D., Bastos, A., Stoy, P. C., Ibrom, A., Knohl, A., Migliavacca, M., Cuntz, M., Šigut, L., Peichl, M., Loustau, D., El-Madany, T. S., Buchmann, N., Gharun, M., Janssens, I., Markwitz, C., Grünwald, T., Rebmann, C., Mölder, M., Varlagin, A., Mammarella, I., Kolari, P., Bernhofer, C., Heliasz, M., Vincke, C., Pitacco, A., Cremonese, E., Foltýnová, L., and Wigneron, J.-P.: Uncovering the critical soil moisture thresholds of plant water stress for European ecosystems, Glob. Change Biol., 28, 2111–2123, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16050, 2022b. a, b
Fuhrer, J. and Jasper, K.: Demand and Supply of Water for Agriculture: Influence of Topography and Climate in Pre-Alpine, Mesoscale Catchments, Natural Resources, 3, 145–155, https://doi.org/10.4236/nr.2012.33019, 2012. a, b
Grillakis, M. G.: Increase in severe and extreme soil moisture droughts for Europe under climate change, Sci. Total Environ., 660, 1245–1255, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.001, 2019. a, b
Gu, L., Chen, J., Yin, J., Xu, C.-Y., and Chen, H.: Drought hazard transferability from meteorological to hydrological propagation, J. Hydrol., 585, 124761, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124761, 2020. a
Gudmundsson, L. and Seneviratne, S. I.: European drought trends, Proc. IAHS, 369, 75–79, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-75-2015, 2015a. a
Gudmundsson, L. and Seneviratne, S. I.: Towards observation-based gridded runoff estimates for Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2859–2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2859-2015, 2015b. a
Gudmundsson, L. and Seneviratne, S. I.: Anthropogenic climate change affects meteorological drought risk in Europe, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 044005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044005, 2016. a
Gudmundsson, L. and Stagge, J. H.: SCI: Standardized Climate Indices such as SPI, SRI or SPEI. R package version 1.0-2, The Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) [code], https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/SCI/index.html (last access: 4 June 2024), 2016. a
Gudmundsson, L., Seneviratne, S. I., and Zhang, X.: Anthropogenic climate change detected in European renewable freshwater resources, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 813–816, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3416, 2017. a
Gupta, H. V., Kling, H., Yilmaz, K. K., and Martinez, G. F.: Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria: Implications for improving hydrological modelling, J. Hydrol., 377, 80–91, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003, 2009. a
Hall, J. W. and Leng, G.: Can we calculate drought risk… and do we need to?, WIREs Water, 6, e1349, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1349, 2019. a
Hamon, W. R.: Estimating potential evapotranspiration, J. Hydr. Eng. Div.-ASCE, 87, 107–120, https://doi.org/10.1061/JYCEAJ.0000599, 1961. a
Hasan, H. H., Mohd Razali, S. F., Muhammad, N. S., and Ahmad, A.: Research Trends of Hydrological Drought: A Systematic Review, Water, 11, 2252, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112252, 2019. a
Haslinger, K., Koffler, D., Schöner, W., and Laaha, G.: Exploring the link between meteorological drought and streamflow: Effects of climate-catchment interaction, Water Resour. Res., 50, 2468–2487, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR015051, 2014. a, b
Haslinger, K., Holawe, F., and Blöschl, G.: Spatial characteristics of precipitation shortfalls in the Greater Alpine Region – a data-based analysis from observations, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 136, 717–731, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2506-5, 2019. a
Hayes, M., Svoboda, M., Wall, N., and Widhalm, M.: The Lincoln Declaration on Drought Indices: Universal Meteorological Drought Index Recommended, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 485–488, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3103.1, 2011. a, b
Hendrawan, V. S. A., Kim, W., and Komori, D.: Crop response pattern to several drought timescales and its possible determinants: A global-scale analysis during the last decades, Anthropocene, 43, 100389, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2023.100389, 2023. a
Henne, P. D., Bigalke, M., Büntgen, U., Colombaroli, D., Conedera, M., Feller, U., Frank, D., Fuhrer, J., Grosjean, M., Heiri, O., Luterbacher, J., Mestrot, A., Rigling, A., Rössler, O., Rohr, C., Rutishauser, T., Schwikowski, M., Stampfli, A., Szidat, S., Theurillat, J.-P., Weingartner, R., Wilcke, W., and Tinner, W.: An empirical perspective for understanding climate change impacts in Switzerland, Reg. Environ. Change, 18, 205–221, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1182-9, 2018. a
Ho, S., Tian, L., Disse, M., and Tuo, Y.: A new approach to quantify propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought, J. Hydrol., 603, 127056, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127056, 2021. a
Holzkämper, A., Cochand, F., Rössler, O., Brunner, P., and Hunkeler, D.: Landnutzungsänderungen auf Grundwasserressourcen im Berner Seeland, Im Auftrag des Bundesamts für Umwelt (BAFU), Bern, Schweiz, Tech. rep., 39 pp., https://doi.org/10.34776/nccs21aa, 2020. a
Imfeld, N., Stucki, P., Brönnimann, S., Bader, S., Bürgi, M., Calanca, P., Gubler, S., Holzkämper, A., Hövel, L., Isotta, F., Kestenholz, C., Kotlarski, S., Mastai, A., Nussbaumer, S. U., Raible, C. C., Röthlisberger, M., Scherrer, S. C., Staub, K., Vicedo-Cabrera, A., Vogel, M.-M., Wehrli, K., Wohlgemuth, T., and Zumbühl, H. J.: Hitze- und Trockensommer in der Schweiz. Ursachen und Folgen der Jahrhundertsommer 1947, 2003 und 2018, Reihe G Grundlagenforschung, Geographica Bernensia, G98, 33 pp., https://doi.org/10.4480/GB2022.G98.01, 2022a. a, b
Imfeld, N., Stucki, P., Brönnimann, S., Bürgi, M., Calanca, P., Holzkämper, A., Isotta, F., Nussbaumer, S. U., Scherrer, S., Staub, K., Vicedo-Cabrera, A., Wohlgemuth, T., and Zumbühl, H. J.: 2022: Ein ziemlich normaler zukünftiger Sommer, Geographica Bernensia, G100, 1–3, https://doi.org/10.4480/GB2022.G100, 2022b. a, b
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O. B., Bouwer, L. M., Braun, A., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Georgievski, G., Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A., Hempelmann, N., Jones, C., Keuler, K., Kovats, S., Kröner, N., Kotlarski, S., Kriegsmann, A., Martin, E., van Meijgaard, E., Moseley, C., Pfeifer, S., Preuschmann, S., Radermacher, C., Radtke, K., Rechid, D., Rounsevell, M., Samuelsson, P., Somot, S., Soussana, J.-F., Teichmann, C., Valentini, R., Vautard, R., Weber, B., and Yiou, P.: EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research, Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 563–578, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2, 2014. a
Jiang, T., Su, X., Zhang, G., Zhang, T., and Wu, H.: Estimating propagation probability from meteorological to ecological droughts using a hybrid machine learning copula method, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 559–576, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-559-2023, 2023. a
Kchouk, S., Melsen, L. A., Walker, D. W., and van Oel, P. R.: A geography of drought indices: mismatch between indicators of drought and its impacts on water and food securities, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 323–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-323-2022, 2022. a, b
Keller, F. and Fuhrer, J.: Die Landwirtschaft und der Hitzesommer 2003, Agrarforschung, 11, 403–410, 2004. a
Kohn, I., Stahl, K., and Stoelzle, M.: Low Flow Events – a Review in the Context of Climate Change in Switzerland, Comissioned by the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN), Bern, Switzerland, Tech. rep., University of Freiburg i. Br., Germany, https://doi.org/10.6094/UNIFR/150448, 2019. a, b, c, d, e
Kotlarski, S. and Rajczak, J.: Documentation of the Localized CH2018 Datasets. Transient Daily Time Series at the Local Scale: DAILY-LOCAL, DAILY-GRIDDED Version 1.2, https://www.nccs.admin.ch/nccs/de/home/materialien-und-daten/daten/ch2018---klimaszenarien-fuer-die-schweiz.html (last access: 22 November 2023), 2018. a, b
Kotlarski, S., Keuler, K., Christensen, O. B., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Gobiet, A., Goergen, K., Jacob, D., Lüthi, D., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Schär, C., Teichmann, C., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1297–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014, 2014. a
Kotlarski, S., Gobiet, A., Morin, S., Olefs, M., Rajczak, J., and Samacoïts, R.: 21st Century alpine climate change, Clim. Dynam., 60, 65–86, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06303-3, 2023. a, b, c, d
Kreibich, H., Van Loon, A. F., Schröter, K., Ward, P. J., Mazzoleni, M., Sairam, N., Abeshu, G. W., Agafonova, S., AghaKouchak, A., Aksoy, H., Alvarez-Garreton, C., Aznar, B., Balkhi, L., Barendrecht, M. H., Biancamaria, S., Bos-Burgering, L., Bradley, C., Budiyono, Y., Buytaert, W., Capewell, L., Carlson, H., Cavus, Y., Couasnon, A., Coxon, G., Daliakopoulos, I., de Ruiter, M. C., Delus, C., Erfurt, M., Esposito, G., François, D., Frappart, F., Freer, J., Frolova, N., Gain, A. K., Grillakis, M., Grima, J. O., Guzmán, D. A., Huning, L. S., Ionita, M., Kharlamov, M., Khoi, D. N., Kieboom, N., Kireeva, M., Koutroulis, A., Lavado-Casimiro, W., Li, H.-Y., LLasat, M. C., Macdonald, D., Mård, J., Mathew-Richards, H., McKenzie, A., Mejia, A., Mendiondo, E. M., Mens, M., Mobini, S., Mohor, G. S., Nagavciuc, V., Ngo-Duc, T., Thao Nguyen Huynh, T., Nhi, P. T. T., Petrucci, O., Nguyen, H. Q., Quintana-Seguí, P., Razavi, S., Ridolfi, E., Riegel, J., Sadik, M. S., Savelli, E., Sazonov, A., Sharma, S., Sörensen, J., Arguello Souza, F. A., Stahl, K., Steinhausen, M., Stoelzle, M., Szalińska, W., Tang, Q., Tian, F., Tokarczyk, T., Tovar, C., Tran, T. V. T., Van Huijgevoort, M. H. J., van Vliet, M. T. H., Vorogushyn, S., Wagener, T., Wang, Y., Wendt, D. E., Wickham, E., Yang, L., Zambrano-Bigiarini, M., Blöschl, G., and Di Baldassarre, G.: The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management, Nature, 608, 80–86, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5, 2022. a, b
Kruse, S. and Seidl, I.: Social capacities for drought risk management in Switzerland, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3429–3441, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3429-2013, 2013. a
Lee, J.-Y., Marotzke, J., Bala, G., Cao, L., Corti, S., Dunne, J. P., Engelbrecht, F., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J. C., Jones, C., Maycock, A., Mutemi, J., Ndiaye, O., Panickal, S., and Zhou, T.: Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and NearTerm Information, Tech. rep., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.006, 2021. a
Lehner, F., Coats, S., Stocker, T. F., Pendergrass, A. G., Sanderson, B. M., Raible, C. C., and Smerdon, J. E.: Projected drought risk in 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer climates, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 7419–7428, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074117, 2017. a, b
Li, J., Bevacqua, E., Chen, C., Wang, Z., Chen, X., Myneni, R. B., Wu, X., Xu, C.-Y., Zhang, Z., and Zscheischler, J.: Regional asymmetry in the response of global vegetation growth to springtime compound climate events, Commun. Earth Environ., 3, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00455-0, 2022. a
Lloyd-Hughes, B.: The impracticality of a universal drought definition, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 117, 607–611, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1025-7, 2014. a
Manning, C., Widmann, M., Bevacqua, E., Loon, A. F. V., Maraun, D., and Vrac, M.: Soil Moisture Drought in Europe: A Compound Event of Precipitation and Potential Evapotranspiration on Multiple Time Scales, J. Hydrometeorol., 19, 1255–1271, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0017.1, 2018. a
Manning, C., Widmann, M., Bevacqua, E., Loon, A. F. V., Maraun, D., and Vrac, M.: Increased probability of compound long-duration dry and hot events in Europe during summer (1950–2013), Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 094006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab23bf, 2019. a
Markonis, Y., Kumar, R., Hanel, M., Rakovec, O., Máca, P., and AghaKouchak, A.: The rise of compound warm-season droughts in Europe, Science Advances, 7, eabb9668, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abb9668, 2021. a, b
McGill, R., Tukey, J. W., and Larsen, W. A.: Variations of Box Plots, The American Statistician, 32, 12–16, https://doi.org/10.2307/2683468, 1978. a
McKee, T., Doesken, N., and Kleist, J.: The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, Eight Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, California, 17–22 January 1993, https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/THE-RELATIONSHIP-OF-DROUGHT-FREQUENCY-AND-DURATION-McKee-Doesken/c3f7136d6cb726b295eb34565a8270177c57f40f (last access: 1 February 2022), 1993. a, b, c
Melsen, L. A. and Guse, B.: Hydrological Drought Simulations: How Climate and Model Structure Control Parameter Sensitivity, Water Resour. Res., 55, 10527–10547, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025230, 2019. a, b, c, d
Merz, B., Kuhlicke, C., Kunz, M., Pittore, M., Babeyko, A., Bresch, D. N., Domeisen, D. I. V., Feser, F., Koszalka, I., Kreibich, H., Pantillon, F., Parolai, S., Pinto, J. G., Punge, H. J., Rivalta, E., Schröter, K., Strehlow, K., Weisse, R., and Wurpts, A.: Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2020RG000704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704, 2020. a
MeteoSwiss: Daily Mean, Minimum and Maximum Temperature: TabsD, TminD, TmaxD, https://www.meteoswiss.admin.ch/dam/jcr:818a4d17-cb0c-4e8b-92c6-1a1bdf5348b7/ProdDoc_TabsD.pdf (last access: 20 December 2022), 2021b. a
Milly, P. and Dunne, K. A.: A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change, J. Am. Water Resour. As., 53, 822838, https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12538, 2017. a
Milly, P. C. D. and Dunne, K. A.: Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 946–949, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3046, 2016. a
Miralles, D. G., Gentine, P., Seneviratne, S. I., and Teuling, A. J.: Land–atmospheric feedbacks during droughts and heatwaves: state of the science and current challenges, Ann. NY Acad. Sci., 1436, 19–35, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13912, 2019. a, b, c
Mishra, A. K. and Singh, V. P.: A review of drought concepts, J. Hydrol., 391, 202–216, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012, 2010. a, b, c
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer, R. J., Thomson, A. M., Weyant, J. P., and Wilbanks, T. J.: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, 463, 747–756, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823, 2010. a
Muelchi, R., Schwanbeck, J., Rössler, O., Weingartner, R., and Martius, O.: Hydro-CH2018-Runoff ensemble (Version v1), Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3937485, 2020.
Muelchi, R., Rössler, O., Schwanbeck, J., Weingartner, R., and Martius, O.: An ensemble of daily simulated runoff data (1981–2099) under climate change conditions for 93 catchments in Switzerland (Hydro-CH2018-Runoff ensemble), Geosci. Data J., 9, 46–57, https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.117, 2022. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j, k, l, m, n, o
Mukherjee, S., Mishra, A., and Trenberth, K. E.: Climate Change and Drought: a Perspective on Drought Indices, Current Climate Change Reports, 4, 145–163, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0098-x, 2018. a, b, c, d
Myronidis, D., Fotakis, D., Ioannou, K., and Sgouropoulou, K.: Comparison of ten notable meteorological drought indices on tracking the effect of drought on streamflow, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 63, 2005–2019, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2018.1554285, 2018. a
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970. a
Naumann, G., Cammalleri, C., Mentaschi, L., and Feyen, L.: Increased economic drought impacts in Europe with anthropogenic warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 485–491, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01044-3, 2021. a, b
NCCS: Grossregionen, https://www.nccs.admin.ch/nccs/de/home/regionen/grossregionen.html (last access: 23 November 2023), 2023. a
Orlowsky, B. and Seneviratne, S. I.: Elusive drought: uncertainty in observed trends and short- and long-term CMIP5 projections, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1765–1781, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1765-2013, 2013. a, b
Otero, N., Horton, P., Martius, O., Allen, S., Zappa, M., Wechsler, T., and Schaefli, B.: Impacts of hot-dry conditions on hydropower production in Switzerland, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 064038, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd8d7, 2023. a, b
Otkin, J. A., Svoboda, M., Hunt, E. D., Ford, T. W., Anderson, M. C., Hain, C., and Basara, J. B.: Flash Droughts: A Review and Assessment of the Challenges Imposed by Rapid-Onset Droughts in the United States, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 911–919, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0149.1, 2018. a
O’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K. L., Hallegatte, S., Carter, T. R., Mathur, R., and van Vuuren, D. P.: A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways, Climatic Change, 122, 387–400, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2, 2014. a
Pebesma, E.: Simple Features for R: Standardized Support for Spatial Vector Data, The R Journal, 10, 439–446, https://doi.org/10.32614/RJ-2018-009, 2018.
Pebesma, E., Bivand, R., Racine, E., Sumner, M., Cook, I., Keitt, T., Lovelace, R., Wickham, H., Ooms, J., Müller, K., Pedersen, T. L., Bastom, D., and Dunnington, D.: sf: Simple Features for R. R package version 1.0.12, The Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) [code], https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/sf/index.html (last access: 30 April 2023), 2023.
Peña-Angulo, D., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Domínguez-Castro, F., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Murphy, C., Hannaford, J., Allan, R. P., Tramblay, Y., Reig-Gracia, F., and El Kenawy, A.: The Complex and Spatially Diverse Patterns of Hydrological Droughts Across Europe, Water Resour. Res., 58, e2022WR031976, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR031976, 2022. a
Rajczak, J., Kotlarski, S., and Schär, C.: Does Quantile Mapping of Simulated Precipitation Correct for Biases in Transition Probabilities and Spell Lengths?, J. Climate, 29, 1605–1615, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0162.1, 2016. a
Ranasinghe, R., Ruane, A. C., Vautard, R., Arnell, N., Coppola, E., Cruz, F. A., Dessai, S., Islam, A. S., Rahimi, M., Ruiz Carrascal, D., Sillmann, J., Sylla, M. B., Tebaldi, C., Wang, W., and Zaaboul, R.: Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1767–1926, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.014, 2021. a, b
Saft, M., Western, A. W., Zhang, L., Peel, M. C., and Potter, N. J.: The influence of multiyear drought on the annual rainfall-runoff relationship: An Australian perspective, Water Resour. Res., 51, 2444–2463, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015348,2015. a
Sarailidis, G., Vasiliades, L., and Loukas, A.: Analysis of streamflow droughts using fixed and variable thresholds, Hydrol. Process., 33, 414–431, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13336, 2019. a
Savelli, E., Rusca, M., Cloke, H., and Di Baldassarre, G.: Drought and society: Scientific progress, blind spots, and future prospects, WIREs Climate Change, 13, e761, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.761, 2022. a, b, c
Sawadogo, A., Kouadio, L., Traoré, F., Zwart, S. J., Hessels, T., and Gündoğdu, K. S.: Spatiotemporal Assessment of Irrigation Performance of the Kou Valley Irrigation Scheme in Burkina Faso Using Satellite Remote Sensing-Derived Indicators, ISPRS Int. Geo-Inf., 9, 484, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi9080484, 2020. a
Scherrer, S. C., Hirschi, M., Spirig, C., Maurer, F., and Kotlarski, S.: Trends and drivers of recent summer drying in Switzerland, Environmental Research Communications, 4, 2, https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ac4fb9, 2022. a, b, c
Seneviratne, S. I.: Historical drought trends revisited, Nature, 491, 338–339, https://doi.org/10.1038/491338a, 2012. a, b
Seneviratne, S. I., Corti, T., Davin, E. L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E. B., Lehner, I., Orlowsky, B., and Teuling, A. J.: Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review, Earth-Sci. Rev., 99, 125–161, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004, 2010. a
Seneviratne, S. I., Nicholls, N., Easterling, D., Goodess, C. M., Kanae, S., Kossin, J., Luo, Y., Marengo, J., McInnes, K., Rahimi, M., Reichstein, M., Sortenberg, A., Vera, C., and Zhang, X.: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment, in: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, edited by: Field, C. B., V. Barros, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, D. J. Dokken, K. L. Ebi, M. D. Mastrandrea, K. J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S. K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P. M. Midgley, A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 109–230, ISBN 978-1-107-60780-4, 2012. a
Sheffield, J., Wood, E. F., and Roderick, M. L.: Little change in global drought over the past 60 years, Nature, 491, 435–438, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11575, 2012. a
Singh, J., Ashfaq, M., Skinner, C. B., Anderson, W. B., and Singh, D.: Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability, NPJ Clim. Atmos. Sci., 4, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-021-00161-2, 2021. a, b, c
Spinoni, J., Vogt, J. V., Naumann, G., Barbosa, P., and Dosio, A.: Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?, Int. J. Climatol., 38, 1718–1736, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5291, 2018. a, b, c
Spinoni, J., Barbosa, P., Bucchignani, E., Cassano, J., Cavazos, T., Christensen, J. H., Christensen, O. B., Coppola, E., Evans, J., Geyer, B., Giorgi, F., Hadjinicolaou, P., Jacob, D., Katzfey, J., Koenigk, T., Laprise, R., Lennard, C. J., Kurnaz, M. L., Li, D., Llopart, M., McCormick, N., Naumann, G., Nikulin, G., Ozturk, T., Panitz, H.-J., Rocha, R. P. d., Rockel, B., Solman, S. A., Syktus, J., Tangang, F., Teichmann, C., Vautard, R., Vogt, J. V., Winger, K., Zittis, G., and Dosio, A.: Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data, J. Climate, 33, 3635–3661, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1, 2020. a
Stagge, J. H., Tallaksen, L. M., Gudmundsson, L., Van Loon, A. F., and Stahl, K.: Candidate Distributions for Climatological Drought Indices (SPI and SPEI), Int. J. Climatol., 35, 4027–4040, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4267, 2015. a, b, c
Staudinger, M., Stahl, K., and Seibert, J.: A drought index accounting for snow, Water Resour. Res., 50, 7861–7872, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR015143, 2014. a
Staudinger, M., Stoelzle, M., Seeger, S., Seibert, J., Weiler, M., and Stahl, K.: Catchment water storage variation with elevation, Hydrol. Process., 31, 2000–2015, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11158, 2017. a
Stocker, B. D., Tumber-Dávila, S. J., Konings, A. G., Anderson, M. C., Hain, C., and Jackson, R. B.: Global patterns of water storage in the rooting zones of vegetation, Nat. Geosci., 16, 250–256, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01125-2, 2023. a, b
Sutanto, S. J. and Van Lanen, H. A. J.: Catchment memory explains hydrological drought forecast performance, Sci. Rep., 12, 2689, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-06553-5, 2022. a, b
Swisstopo: DHM25 – das digitale Höhenmodell der Schweiz, Swisstopo [data set], https://www.swisstopo.admin.ch/de/hoehenmodell-dhm25 (last acces: 21 December 2023), 2024.
Tallaksen, L. M., Madsen, H., and Clausen, B.: On the definition and modelling of streamflow drought duration and deficit volume, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 42, 15–33, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626669709492003,1997. a
Tellman, B. and Eakin, H.: Risk management alone fails to limit the impact of extreme climate events, Nature, 608, 41–43, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-02031-0, 2022. a, b
Tijdeman, E., Barker, L. J., Svoboda, M. D., and Stahl, K.: Natural and Human Influences on the Link Between Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Indices for a Large Set of Catchments in the Contiguous United States, Water Resour. Res., 54, 6005–6023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR022412, 2018. a, b
Tijdeman, E., Stahl, K., and Tallaksen, L. M.: Drought Characteristics Derived Based on the Standardized Streamflow Index: A Large Sample Comparison for Parametric and Nonparametric Methods, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR026315, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026315, 2020. a
Tijdeman, E., Blauhut, V., Stoelzle, M., Menzel, L., and Stahl, K.: Different drought types and the spatial variability in their hazard, impact, and propagation characteristics, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2099–2116, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022, 2022. a, b
Trenberth, K. E., Dai, A., van der Schrier, G., Jones, P. D., Barichivich, J., Briffa, K. R., and Sheffield, J.: Global warming and changes in drought, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 17–22, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2067, 2014. a
Tripathy, K. P. and Mishra, A. K.: How Unusual Is the 2022 European Compound Drought and Heatwave Event?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2023GL105453, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105453, 2023. a
Van Lanen, H. A. J., Wanders, N., Tallaksen, L. M., and Van Loon, A. F.: Hydrological drought across the world: impact of climate and physical catchment structure, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1715–1732, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1715-2013, 2013. a
Van Loon, A. F. and Laaha, G.: Hydrological drought severity explained by climate and catchment characteristics, J. Hydrol., 526, 3–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.059, 2015. a
Van Loon, A. F., Tijdeman, E., Wanders, N., Van Lanen, H. A. J., Teuling, A. J., and Uijlenhoet, R.: How climate seasonality modifies drought duration and deficit, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 4640–4656, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD020383, 2014. a
van Tiel, M., Weiler, M., Freudiger, D., Moretti, G., Kohn, I., Gerlinger, K., and Stahl, K.: Melting Alpine Water Towers Aggravate Downstream Low Flows: A Stress-Test Storyline Approach, Earths Future, 11, e2022EF003408, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003408, 2023. a
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., and Rose, S. K.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic Change, 109, 5, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011. a, b
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Peña-Angulo, D., Beguería, S., Domínguez-Castro, F., Tomás-Burguera, M., Noguera, I., Gimeno-Sotelo, L., and El Kenawy, A.: Global drought trends and future projections, Philos. T. R. Soc. A, 380, 20210285, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2021.0285, 2022. a, b, c
Viviroli, D., Dürr, H. H., Messerli, B., Meybeck, M., and Weingartner, R.: Mountains of the world, water towers for humanity: Typology, mapping, and global significance, Water Resour. Res., 43, W07447, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005653, 2007. a
Viviroli, D., Zappa, M., Gurtz, J., and Weingartner, R.: An introduction to the hydrological modelling system PREVAH and its pre- and post-processing-tools, Environ. Modell. Softw., 24, 1209–1222, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.04.001, 2009. a, b
von Matt, C., Muelchi, R., Martius, O., and Gudmundsson, L.: COM-DROUGHTS Drought Indices, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10908410, 2024.
Walthert, L., Scherler, M., Stähli, M., Huber, M., Baltensweiler, A., Ramirez-Lopez, L., and Papritz, A. J.: Böden und Wasserhaushalt von Wäldern und Waldstandorten der Schweiz unter heutigem und zukünftigem Klima (BOWA-CH): Schlussbericht des Projektes, Report, ETH Zurich, https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-010658682, 2015. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Weingartner, R. and Schwanbeck, J.: Veränderung der Niedrigwasserabflüsse und der kleinsten saisonalen Abflüsse in der Schweiz im Zeitraum 1961 – 2018. Im Auftrag des Bundesamts für Umwelt (BAFU), Bern, Schweiz, Tech. rep., Bern, Schweiz, 42 pp., https://www.bafu.admin.ch/dam/bafu/de/dokumente/wasser/ext erne-studien-berichte/veraenderung-der-niedrigwasserabfluesse-und-der-kleinsten-saisonalen-abfluesse-in-der-schweiz-im-zeitraum-1961-2018.pdf.download.pdf/Schlussbericht_NQ.pdf (last access: 21 November 2023), 2020. a, b
Wickham, H., Averick, M., Bryan, J., Chang, W., McGowan, L. D., François, R., Grolemund, G., Hayes, A., Henry, L., Hester, J., Kuhn, M., Pedersen, T. L., Miller, E., Bache, S. M., Müller, K., Ooms, J., Robinson, D., Seidel, D. P., Spinu, V., Takahashi, K., Vaughan, D., Wilke, C., Woo, K., and Yutani, H.: Welcome to the Tidyverse, Journal of Open Source Software, 4, 1686, https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.01686, 2019. a
WMO: The role of climatological normals in a changing climate, Tech. rep., World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva, Switzerland, https://library.wmo.int/records/item/52499-the-role-of-climatological-normals-in-a-changing-climate?offset=45 (last access: 23 November 2023), 2007. a
Wu, J., Chen, X., Yao, H., and Zhang, D.: Multi-timescale assessment of propagation thresholds from meteorological to hydrological drought, Sci. Total Environ., 765, 144232, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144232, 2021. a
Wu, J., Yao, H., Chen, X., Wang, G., Bai, X., and Zhang, D.: A framework for assessing compound drought events from a drought propagation perspective, J. Hydrol., 604, 127228, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127228, 2022. a, b
Yevjevich, V.: An objective approach to definitions and investigations of continental hydrologie droughts, Hydrol. Papers 23, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA, https://mountainscholar.org/items/caa939a5-98a9-4ca3-8ea3-308c310cdad7 (last access: 4 June 2024), 1967. a
Yihdego, Y., Vaheddoost, B., and Al-Weshah, R. A.: Drought indices and indicators revisited, Arab. J. Geosci., 12, 69, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-019-4237-z, 2019. a
Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.: hydroTSM: Time Series Management, Analysis and Interpolation for Hydrological ModellingR package version 0.6-0, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.839864, 2020. a
Zappa, M. and Kan, C.: Extreme heat and runoff extremes in the Swiss Alps, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-375-2007, 2007. a
Zeng, J., Li, J., Lu, X., Wei, Z., Shangguan, W., Zhang, S., Dai, Y., and Zhang, S.: Assessment of global meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought under future warming based on CMIP6, Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 15, 100143, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2021.100143, 2022. a
Zhang, X., Hao, Z., Singh, V. P., Zhang, Y., Feng, S., Xu, Y., and Hao, F.: Drought propagation under global warming: Characteristics, approaches, processes, and controlling factors, Sci. Total Environ., 838, 156021, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156021, 2022. a, b
Zhao, M., A, G., Liu, Y., and Konings, A. G.: Evapotranspiration frequently increases during droughts, Nat. Clim. Change, 12, 1024–1030, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01505-3, 2022. a
Zscheischler, J., Martius, O., Westra, S., Bevacqua, E., Raymond, C., Horton, R. M., van den Hurk, B., AghaKouchak, A., Jézéquel, A., Mahecha, M. D., Maraun, D., Ramos, A. M., Ridder, N. N., Thiery, W., and Vignotto, E.: A typology of compound weather and climate events, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1, 333–347, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0060-z, 2020. a, b
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint