Articles | Volume 24, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Jun 2024
Research article |
| 13 Jun 2024
| 13 Jun 2024
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
Christoph Nathanael von Matt
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Regula Muelchi
Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zurich Airport, Zurich, Switzerland
Lukas Gudmundsson
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Olivia Martius
Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 769–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-769-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-769-2025, 2025
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This study compares the dynamical structures that characterise long-lasting (persistent) and short hot spells in Western Europe. We find differences in large-scale atmospheric flow patterns during the events and particular soil moisture evolutions, which can account for the variation in event duration. There is variability in how drivers combine in individual events. Understanding persistent heat extremes can help improve their representation in models and ultimately their prediction.
Hao Pan, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Jonas Schwaab, Yann Quilcaille, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3052, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3052, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics (NPG).
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Regional climate models (RCMs) provide critical detailed information about the local climate. However, running RCM simulations requires powerful computers and is computationally expensive. This study present a probabilistic RCM emulator, MESMER-RCM, a data-driven statistical model. MESMER-RCM can generate large ensembles of synthetic, yet physically plausible fine-scale 2-meter temperature projections spanning multiple decades at negligible computational overhead.
Hugo Banderier, Alexandre Tuel, Tim Woollings, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 715–739, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-715-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-715-2025, 2025
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The jet stream is the main feature of upper-level flow and drives the weather at the surface. It is stronger and better defined in winter and has mostly been studied in that season. However, it is very important for (extreme) weather in summer. In this work, we improve and use two existing and complementary methods to study the jet stream(s) in the Euro-Atlantic sector, with a focus on summer. We find that our methods can verify each other and agree on interesting signals and trends.
Monika Feldmann, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2296, 2025
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Severe thunderstorm outbreaks are a source of major damage across Europe. Using historical data, we analysed the large-scale weather patterns that lead to these outbreaks in eight different regions. Three types of regions emerge: those limited by temperature, limited by moisture and overall favourable for thunderstorms; consistent with their associated weather patterns and the general climate. These findings help explain regional differences and provide a basis for future forecast improvements.
Hannes Müller Schmied, Simon Newland Gosling, Marlo Garnsworthy, Laura Müller, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Atiq Kainan Ahmed, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Jinfeng Chang, He Chen, Lukas Gudmundsson, Manolis Grillakis, Luca Guillaumot, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Rohini Kumar, Guoyong Leng, Junguo Liu, Xingcai Liu, Inga Menke, Vimal Mishra, Yadu Pokhrel, Oldrich Rakovec, Luis Samaniego, Yusuke Satoh, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Mikhail Smilovic, Tobias Stacke, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Wim Thiery, Athanasios Tsilimigkras, Yoshihide Wada, Niko Wanders, and Tokuta Yokohata
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 2409–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-2409-2025, 2025
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Global water models contribute to the evaluation of important natural and societal issues but are – as all models – simplified representation of reality. So, there are many ways to calculate the water fluxes and storages. This paper presents a visualization of 16 global water models using a standardized visualization and the pathway towards this common understanding. Next to academic education purposes, we envisage that these diagrams will help researchers, model developers, and data users.
Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Olivia Martius, and Julian Quinting
Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 471–487, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-471-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-471-2025, 2025
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An accurate representation of synoptic weather systems in climate models is required to estimate their societal and economic impacts under climate warming. Current climate models poorly represent the frequency of atmospheric blocking. Few studies have analysed the role of moist processes as a source of the bias of blocks. Here, we implement ELIAS2.0, a deep-learning tool, to validate the representation of moist processes in CMIP6 models and their link to the Euro-Atlantic blocking biases.
Markus Mosimann, Martina Kauzlaric, Olivia Martius, and Andreas Paul Zischg
Abstr. Int. Cartogr. Assoc., 9, 26, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-9-26-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/ica-abs-9-26-2025, 2025
Basil Kraft, Michael Schirmer, William H. Aeberhard, Massimiliano Zappa, Sonia I. Seneviratne, and Lukas Gudmundsson
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 1061–1082, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1061-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1061-2025, 2025
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This study reconstructs daily runoff in Switzerland (1962–2023) using a deep-learning model, providing a spatially contiguous dataset on a medium-sized catchment grid. The model outperforms traditional hydrological methods, revealing shifts in Swiss water resources, including more frequent dry years and declining summer runoff. The reconstruction is publicly available.
Hans Segura, Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia, Philipp Weiss, Sebastian K. Müller, Thomas Rackow, Junhong Lee, Edgar Dolores-Tesillos, Imme Benedict, Matthias Aengenheyster, Razvan Aguridan, Gabriele Arduini, Alexander J. Baker, Jiawei Bao, Swantje Bastin, Eulàlia Baulenas, Tobias Becker, Sebastian Beyer, Hendryk Bockelmann, Nils Brüggemann, Lukas Brunner, Suvarchal K. Cheedela, Sushant Das, Jasper Denissen, Ian Dragaud, Piotr Dziekan, Madeleine Ekblom, Jan Frederik Engels, Monika Esch, Richard Forbes, Claudia Frauen, Lilli Freischem, Diego García-Maroto, Philipp Geier, Paul Gierz, Álvaro González-Cervera, Katherine Grayson, Matthew Griffith, Oliver Gutjahr, Helmuth Haak, Ioan Hadade, Kerstin Haslehner, Shabeh ul Hasson, Jan Hegewald, Lukas Kluft, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov, Tobias Kölling, Shunya Koseki, Sergey Kosukhin, Josh Kousal, Peter Kuma, Arjun U. Kumar, Rumeng Li, Nicolas Maury, Maximilian Meindl, Sebastian Milinski, Kristian Mogensen, Bimochan Niraula, Jakub Nowak, Divya Sri Praturi, Ulrike Proske, Dian Putrasahan, René Redler, David Santuy, Domokos Sármány, Reiner Schnur, Patrick Scholz, Dmitry Sidorenko, Dorian Spät, Birgit Sützl, Daisuke Takasuka, Adrian Tompkins, Alejandro Uribe, Mirco Valentini, Menno Veerman, Aiko Voigt, Sarah Warnau, Fabian Wachsmann, Marta Wacławczyk, Nils Wedi, Karl-Hermann Wieners, Jonathan Wille, Marius Winkler, Yuting Wu, Florian Ziemen, Janos Zimmermann, Frida A.-M. Bender, Dragana Bojovic, Sandrine Bony, Simona Bordoni, Patrice Brehmer, Marcus Dengler, Emanuel Dutra, Saliou Faye, Erich Fischer, Chiel van Heerwaarden, Cathy Hohenegger, Heikki Järvinen, Markus Jochum, Thomas Jung, Johann H. Jungclaus, Noel S. Keenlyside, Daniel Klocke, Heike Konow, Martina Klose, Szymon Malinowski, Olivia Martius, Thorsten Mauritsen, Juan Pedro Mellado, Theresa Mieslinger, Elsa Mohino, Hanna Pawłowska, Karsten Peters-von Gehlen, Abdoulaye Sarré, Pajam Sobhani, Philip Stier, Lauri Tuppi, Pier Luigi Vidale, Irina Sandu, and Bjorn Stevens
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-509, 2025
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The nextGEMS project developed two Earth system models that resolve processes of the order of 10 km, giving more fidelity to the representation of local phenomena, globally. In its fourth cycle, nextGEMS performed simulations with coupled ocean, land, and atmosphere over the 2020–2049 period under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Here, we provide an overview of nextGEMS, insights into the model development, and the realism of multi-decadal, kilometer-scale simulations.
Christoph Marty, Adrien Michel, Tobias Jonas, Cynthia Steijn, Regula Muelchi, and Sven Kotlarski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-413, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-413, 2025
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This work presents the first long-term (since 1962), daily, 1 km gridded dataset of snow depth and water storage for Switzerland. Its quality was assessed by comparing yearly, monthly, and weekly values to a higher-quality model and in-situ measurements. Results show good overall performance, though some limitations exist at low elevations and short timescales. Despite this, the dataset effectively captures trends, offering valuable insights for climate monitoring and elevation-based changes.
Sarah Schöngart, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Peter Pfleiderer, Quentin Lejeune, Shruti Nath, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 8283–8320, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-8283-2024, 2024
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Precipitation and temperature are two of the most impact-relevant climatic variables. Yet, projecting future precipitation and temperature data under different emission scenarios relies on complex models that are computationally expensive. In this study, we propose a method that allows us to generate monthly means of local precipitation and temperature at low computational costs. Our modelling framework is particularly useful for all downstream applications of climate model data.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
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In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Alice Portal, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1079–1101, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1079-2024, 2024
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We identify situations when rain and wind, rain and wave, or heat and dust hazards co-occur within Mediterranean cyclones. These hazard combinations are associated with risk to infrastructure, risk of coastal flooding and risk of respiratory issues. The presence of Mediterranean cyclones is associated with increased probability of all three hazard combinations. We identify weather configurations and cyclone structures, particularly those associated with specific co-occurrence combinations.
Alice Portal, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Jennifer L. Catto, Yonatan Givon, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1043–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1043-2024, 2024
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Mediterranean cyclones are associated with extended rain, wind, and wave impacts. Although beneficial for regional water resources, their passage may induce extreme weather, which is especially impactful when multiple hazards combine together. Here we show how the passage of Mediterranean cyclones increases the likelihood of rain–wind and wave–wind compounding and how compound–cyclone statistics vary by region and season, depending on the presence of specific airflows around the cyclone.
Jérôme Kopp, Alessandro Hering, Urs Germann, and Olivia Martius
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 4529–4552, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4529-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-4529-2024, 2024
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We present a verification of two products based on weather radars to detect the presence of hail and estimate its size. Radar products are remote detection of hail, so they must be verified against ground-based observations. We use reports from users of the Swiss Weather Services phone app to do the verification. We found that the product estimating the presence of hail provides fair results but that it should be recalibrated and that estimating the hail size with radar is more challenging.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 263–292, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024, 2024
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Warm and cold spells often have damaging consequences for agriculture, power demand, human health and infrastructure, especially when they occur over large areas and persist for a week or more. Here, we split the Northern Hemisphere extratropics into coherent regions where 3-week warm and cold spells in winter and summer are associated with the same large-scale circulation patterns. To understand their physical drivers, we analyse the associated circulation and temperature budget anomalies.
Dominik L. Schumacher, Mariam Zachariah, Friederike Otto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Dorothy Heinrich, Julie Arrighi, Maarten van Aalst, Mathias Hauser, Martin Hirschi, Verena Bessenbacher, Lukas Gudmundsson, Hiroko K. Beaudoing, Matthew Rodell, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Luke J. Harrington, Flavio Lehner, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 131–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024, 2024
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The 2022 summer was accompanied by widespread soil moisture deficits, including an unprecedented drought in Europe. Combining several observation-based estimates and models, we find that such an event has become at least 5 and 20 times more likely due to human-induced climate change in western Europe and the northern extratropics, respectively. Strong regional warming fuels soil desiccation; hence, projections indicate even more potent future droughts as we progress towards a 2 °C warmer world.
Yann Quilcaille, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 1333–1362, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1333-2023, 2023
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Climate models are powerful tools, but they have high computational costs, hindering their use in exploring future climate extremes. We demonstrate MESMER-X, the only existing emulator for spatial climate extremes (heatwaves, fires, droughts) that mimics all of their relevant properties. Thanks to its negligible computational cost, MESMER-X may greatly accelerate the exploration of future climate extremes or enable the integration of climate extremes in economic and financial models.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 955–987, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-955-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-955-2023, 2023
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Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales has been a topic of research since the early days of meteorology. Stationary or recurrent behavior are common features of weather dynamics and are strongly related to fundamental physical processes, weather predictability and surface weather impacts. In this review, we propose a typology for the broad concepts related to persistence and discuss various methods that have been used to characterize persistence in weather data.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
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Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Shruti Nath, Lukas Gudmundsson, Jonas Schwaab, Gregory Duveiller, Steven J. De Hertog, Suqi Guo, Felix Havermann, Fei Luo, Iris Manola, Julia Pongratz, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Carl F. Schleussner, Wim Thiery, and Quentin Lejeune
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4283–4313, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-4283-2023, 2023
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Tree cover changes play a significant role in climate mitigation and adaptation. Their regional impacts are key in informing national-level decisions and prioritising areas for conservation efforts. We present a first step towards exploring these regional impacts using a simple statistical device, i.e. emulator. The emulator only needs to train on climate model outputs representing the maximal impacts of aff-, re-, and deforestation, from which it explores plausible in-between outcomes itself.
Jérôme Kopp, Agostino Manzato, Alessandro Hering, Urs Germann, and Olivia Martius
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 3487–3503, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-3487-2023, 2023
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We present the first study of extended field observations made by a network of 80 automatic hail sensors from Switzerland. The sensors record the exact timing of hailstone impacts, providing valuable information about the local duration of hailfall. We found that the majority of hailfalls lasts just a few minutes and that most hailstones, including the largest, fall during a first phase of high hailstone density, while a few remaining and smaller hailstones fall in a second low-density phase.
Ryan S. Padrón, Lukas Gudmundsson, Laibao Liu, Vincent Humphrey, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Biogeosciences, 19, 5435–5448, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022, 2022
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The answer to how much carbon land ecosystems are projected to remove from the atmosphere until 2100 is different for each Earth system model. We find that differences across models are primarily explained by the annual land carbon sink dependence on temperature and soil moisture, followed by the dependence on CO2 air concentration, and by average climate conditions. Our insights on why each model projects a relatively high or low land carbon sink can help to reduce the underlying uncertainty.
S. Mubashshir Ali, Matthias Röthlisberger, Tess Parker, Kai Kornhuber, and Olivia Martius
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1139–1156, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1139-2022, 2022
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Persistent weather can lead to extreme weather conditions. One such atmospheric flow pattern, termed recurrent Rossby wave packets (RRWPs), has been shown to increase persistent weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we show that RRWPs are also an important feature in the Southern Hemisphere. We evaluate the role of RRWPs during south-eastern Australian heatwaves and find that they help to persist the heatwaves by forming upper-level high-pressure systems over south-eastern Australia.
Kathrin Wehrli, Fei Luo, Mathias Hauser, Hideo Shiogama, Daisuke Tokuda, Hyungjun Kim, Dim Coumou, Wilhelm May, Philippe Le Sager, Frank Selten, Olivia Martius, Robert Vautard, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1167–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1167-2022, 2022
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The ExtremeX experiment was designed to unravel the contribution of processes leading to the occurrence of recent weather and climate extremes. Global climate simulations are carried out with three models. The results show that in constrained experiments, temperature anomalies during heatwaves are well represented, although climatological model biases remain. Further, a substantial contribution of both atmospheric circulation and soil moisture to heat extremes is identified.
Verena Bessenbacher, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, and Lukas Gudmundsson
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 4569–4596, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4569-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-4569-2022, 2022
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Earth observations have many missing values. They are often filled using information from spatial and temporal contexts that mostly ignore information from related observed variables. We propose the gap-filling method CLIMFILL that additionally uses information from related variables. We test CLIMFILL using gap-free reanalysis data of variables related to soil–moisture climate interactions. CLIMFILL creates estimates for the missing values that recover the original dependence structure.
Alexandre Tuel, Bettina Schaefli, Jakob Zscheischler, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2649–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2649-2022, 2022
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River discharge is strongly influenced by the temporal structure of precipitation. Here, we show how extreme precipitation events that occur a few days or weeks after a previous event have a larger effect on river discharge than events occurring in isolation. Windows of 2 weeks or less between events have the most impact. Similarly, periods of persistent high discharge tend to be associated with the occurrence of several extreme precipitation events in close succession.
Daniel Steinfeld, Adrian Peter, Olivia Martius, and Stefan Brönnimann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-92, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-92, 2022
Preprint archived
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We assess the performance of various fire weather indices to predict wildfire occurrence in Northern Switzerland. We find that indices responding readily to weather changes have the best performance during spring; in the summer and autumn seasons, indices that describe persistent hot and dry conditions perform best. We demonstrate that a logistic regression model trained on local historical fire activity can outperform existing fire weather indices.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Olivia Martius, Stephan Pfahl, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022
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Atmospheric blocking is associated with stationary, self-sustaining and long-lasting high-pressure systems. They can cause or at least influence surface weather extremes, such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts or wind extremes. The location of the blocking determines where and what type of extreme event will occur. These relationships are also important for weather prediction and may change due to global warming.
Lea Beusch, Zebedee Nicholls, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Malte Meinshausen, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2085–2103, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2085-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2085-2022, 2022
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We introduce the first chain of computationally efficient Earth system model (ESM) emulators to translate user-defined greenhouse gas emission pathways into regional temperature change time series accounting for all major sources of climate change projection uncertainty. By combining the global mean emulator MAGICC with the spatially resolved emulator MESMER, we can derive ESM-specific and constrained probabilistic emulations to rapidly provide targeted climate information at the local scale.
Hélène Barras, Olivia Martius, Luca Nisi, Katharina Schroeer, Alessandro Hering, and Urs Germann
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 1167–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1167-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-1167-2021, 2021
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In Switzerland hail may occur several days in a row. Such multi-day hail events may cause significant damage, and understanding and forecasting these events is important. Using reanalysis data we show that weather systems over Europe move slower before and during multi-day hail events compared to single hail days. Surface temperatures are typically warmer and the air more humid over Switzerland and winds are slower on multi-day hail clusters. These results may be used for hail forecasting.
Timothy H. Raupach, Andrey Martynov, Luca Nisi, Alessandro Hering, Yannick Barton, and Olivia Martius
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6495–6514, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6495-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-6495-2021, 2021
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When simulated thunderstorms are compared to observations or other simulations, a match between overall storm properties is often more important than exact matches to individual storms. We tested a comparison method that uses a thunderstorm tracking algorithm to characterise simulated storms. For May 2018 in Switzerland, the method produced reasonable matches to independent observations for most storm properties, showing its feasibility for summarising simulated storms over mountainous terrain.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2949–2972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2949-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2949-2021, 2021
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Extreme river discharge may be triggered by large accumulations of precipitation over short time periods, which can result from the successive occurrence of extreme-precipitation events. We find a distinct spatiotemporal pattern in the temporal clustering behavior of precipitation extremes over Switzerland, with clustering occurring on the northern side of the Alps in winter and on their southern side in fall. Clusters tend to be followed by extreme discharge, particularly in the southern Alps.
Jérôme Kopp, Pauline Rivoire, S. Mubashshir Ali, Yannick Barton, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5153–5174, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5153-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5153-2021, 2021
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Episodes of extreme rainfall events happening in close temporal succession can lead to floods with dramatic impacts. We developed a novel method to individually identify those episodes and deduced the regions where they occur frequently and where their impact is substantial. Those regions are the east and northeast of the Asian continent, central Canada and the south of California, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula, and north of Argentina and south of Bolivia.
Regula Muelchi, Ole Rössler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3577–3594, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3577-2021, 2021
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This study analyses changes in magnitude, frequency, and seasonality of moderate low and high flows for 93 catchments in Switzerland. In lower-lying catchments (below 1500 m a.s.l.), moderate low-flow magnitude (frequency) will decrease (increase). In Alpine catchments (above 1500 m a.s.l.), moderate low-flow magnitude (frequency) will increase (decrease). Moderate high flows tend to occur more frequent, and their magnitude increases in most catchments except some Alpine catchments.
Regula Muelchi, Ole Rössler, Jan Schwanbeck, Rolf Weingartner, and Olivia Martius
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3071–3086, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-3071-2021, 2021
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Runoff regimes in Switzerland will change significantly under climate change. Projected changes are strongly elevation dependent with earlier time of emergence and stronger changes in high-elevation catchments where snowmelt and glacier melt play an important role. The magnitude of change and the climate model agreement on the sign increase with increasing global mean temperatures and stronger emission scenarios. This amplification highlights the importance of climate change mitigation.
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Compound extremes such as heavy precipitation and extreme winds can lead to large damage. To date it is unclear how well climate models represent such compound extremes. Here we present a new measure to assess differences in the dependence structure of bivariate extremes. This measure is applied to assess differences in the dependence of compound precipitation and wind extremes between three model simulations and one reanalysis dataset in a domain in central Europe.
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Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and...
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