Articles | Volume 23, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8
1SS, UK
Fathom, Square Works, 17-18 Berkeley Square, Bristol BS8 1HB, UK
James Savage
Fathom, Square Works, 17-18 Berkeley Square, Bristol BS8 1HB, UK
Oliver Wing
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8
1SS, UK
Fathom, Square Works, 17-18 Berkeley Square, Bristol BS8 1HB, UK
Niall Quinn
Fathom, Square Works, 17-18 Berkeley Square, Bristol BS8 1HB, UK
Christopher Sampson
Fathom, Square Works, 17-18 Berkeley Square, Bristol BS8 1HB, UK
Jeffrey Neal
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8
1SS, UK
Fathom, Square Works, 17-18 Berkeley Square, Bristol BS8 1HB, UK
Andrew Smith
Fathom, Square Works, 17-18 Berkeley Square, Bristol BS8 1HB, UK
Viewed
Total article views: 7,169 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 22 Sep 2022)
HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5,695 | 1,383 | 91 | 7,169 | 490 | 52 | 47 |
- HTML: 5,695
- PDF: 1,383
- XML: 91
- Total: 7,169
- Supplement: 490
- BibTeX: 52
- EndNote: 47
Total article views: 6,150 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 07 Mar 2023)
HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5,034 | 1,042 | 74 | 6,150 | 408 | 49 | 45 |
- HTML: 5,034
- PDF: 1,042
- XML: 74
- Total: 6,150
- Supplement: 408
- BibTeX: 49
- EndNote: 45
Total article views: 1,019 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 22 Sep 2022)
HTML | XML | Total | Supplement | BibTeX | EndNote | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
661 | 341 | 17 | 1,019 | 82 | 3 | 2 |
- HTML: 661
- PDF: 341
- XML: 17
- Total: 1,019
- Supplement: 82
- BibTeX: 3
- EndNote: 2
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 7,169 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 6,893 with geography defined
and 276 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 6,150 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 5,950 with geography defined
and 200 with unknown origin.
Total article views: 1,019 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 943 with geography defined
and 76 with unknown origin.
Country | # | Views | % |
---|
Country | # | Views | % |
---|
Country | # | Views | % |
---|
Total: | 0 |
HTML: | 0 |
PDF: | 0 |
XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Total: | 0 |
HTML: | 0 |
PDF: | 0 |
XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Total: | 0 |
HTML: | 0 |
PDF: | 0 |
XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Cited
9 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Synoptic conditions conducive for compound wind-flood events in Great Britain in present and future climates H. Bloomfield et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad1cb7
- Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam L. Hawker et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024
- Integrating social vulnerability into high-resolution global flood risk mapping S. Fox et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-47394-2
- Quantifying future changes of flood hazards within the Broadland catchment in the UK R. Gudde et al. 10.1007/s11069-024-06590-5
- Urban Flood Drifters (UFDs): Onset of movement D. Valero et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171568
- Methodology for constructing a flood-hazard map for a future climate Y. Kimura et al. 10.5194/hess-27-1627-2023
- Future Change in Urban Flooding Using New Convection‐Permitting Climate Projections L. Archer et al. 10.1029/2023WR035533
- Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change L. Archer et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024
- The shape-shifting form of UK floodplains: Fusing analysis of the territorially constructed with analysis of natural terrain processes J. Lewin & T. O’Shea 10.1177/03091333231156510
9 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Synoptic conditions conducive for compound wind-flood events in Great Britain in present and future climates H. Bloomfield et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad1cb7
- Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam L. Hawker et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024
- Integrating social vulnerability into high-resolution global flood risk mapping S. Fox et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-47394-2
- Quantifying future changes of flood hazards within the Broadland catchment in the UK R. Gudde et al. 10.1007/s11069-024-06590-5
- Urban Flood Drifters (UFDs): Onset of movement D. Valero et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171568
- Methodology for constructing a flood-hazard map for a future climate Y. Kimura et al. 10.5194/hess-27-1627-2023
- Future Change in Urban Flooding Using New Convection‐Permitting Climate Projections L. Archer et al. 10.1029/2023WR035533
- Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change L. Archer et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024
- The shape-shifting form of UK floodplains: Fusing analysis of the territorially constructed with analysis of natural terrain processes J. Lewin & T. O’Shea 10.1177/03091333231156510
Latest update: 23 Apr 2024
Executive editor
The NHESS paper “A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding” by Bates and colleagues presents and validates a new flood model for the UK that simulates pluvial, fluvial and coastal flood risks at a resolution of 20 to 25 metres. The authors then use their scheme to estimate the probability-loss distribution for UK flooding under various future climate and policy scenarios. Their paper provides the most detailed and realistic analysis to date of current and future flood risk in the UK. The key findings of their work are: (1) Previous UK flood losses based on government data and used in national climate change risk assessments are overestimated by a factor of about 3. (2) Official UK estimates lie well outside the paper's modelled loss distribution, which is plausibly centred on the observations. (3) The UK 1% annual probability flood losses were only about 6% greater in the average climate conditions of 2020 than for the period of historical river flow and rainfall observations (centred approximately on 1995). (4) Increases in risk can be kept to around ~8% if all COP26 2030 carbon emission reduction pledges and ‘net zero’ commitments are implemented in full. (5) Implementing only the COP26 pledges increases UK 1% annual probability flood losses by ~23% above recent historical values, and potentially ~37% if climate sensitivity turns out to be higher than currently thought.
The NHESS paper “A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding” by Bates and...
Short summary
We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high resolution (~ 20–25 m). We show that UK flood losses were ~ 6 % greater in the climate of 2020 compared to recent historical values. The UK can keep any future increase to ~ 8 % if all countries implement their COP26 pledges and net-zero ambitions in full. However, if only the COP26 pledges are fulfilled, then UK flood losses increase by ~ 23 %; and potentially by ~ 37 % in a worst-case scenario.
We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint