Articles | Volume 23, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-891-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
07 Mar 2023
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 07 Mar 2023
| 07 Mar 2023
A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8
1SS, UK
Fathom, Square Works, 17-18 Berkeley Square, Bristol BS8 1HB, UK
James Savage
Fathom, Square Works, 17-18 Berkeley Square, Bristol BS8 1HB, UK
Oliver Wing
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8
1SS, UK
Fathom, Square Works, 17-18 Berkeley Square, Bristol BS8 1HB, UK
Niall Quinn
Fathom, Square Works, 17-18 Berkeley Square, Bristol BS8 1HB, UK
Christopher Sampson
Fathom, Square Works, 17-18 Berkeley Square, Bristol BS8 1HB, UK
Jeffrey Neal
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8
1SS, UK
Fathom, Square Works, 17-18 Berkeley Square, Bristol BS8 1HB, UK
Andrew Smith
Fathom, Square Works, 17-18 Berkeley Square, Bristol BS8 1HB, UK
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Cited
22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Functionality assessment of road network combining flood roadworthiness and graph topology K. He et al. 10.1016/j.trd.2024.104354
- Invited perspectives: safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments B. Merz et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024
- Accelerating compound flood risk assessments through active learning: A case study of Charleston County (USA) L. Terlinden-Ruhl et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025
- Quantifying future changes of flood hazards within the Broadland catchment in the UK R. Gudde et al. 10.1007/s11069-024-06590-5
- Urban flood drifters (UFD): Identification, classification and characterisation A. Bayón et al. 10.1111/jfr3.13002
- Seismic signature of an extreme hydro-meteorological event in Italy V. Coviello et al. 10.1038/s44304-024-00018-7
- Social limits to climate change adaptation: temporalities in behavioural responses to climate risks F. Berkhout 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101471
- Mapping vulnerability to climate-related hazards to inform local authority action in adaptation: A feasibility study J. Howkins et al. 10.1016/j.puhip.2024.100549
- Future Change in Urban Flooding Using New Convection‐Permitting Climate Projections L. Archer et al. 10.1029/2023WR035533
- Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change L. Archer et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024
- The shape-shifting form of UK floodplains: Fusing analysis of the territorially constructed with analysis of natural terrain processes J. Lewin & T. O’Shea 10.1177/03091333231156510
- Physically-based modelling of UK river flows under climate change B. Smith et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1468855
- Synoptic conditions conducive for compound wind-flood events in Great Britain in present and future climates H. Bloomfield et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad1cb7
- Novel extensions to the Fisher copula to model flood spatial dependence over North America D. Alexandre et al. 10.5194/hess-28-5069-2024
- Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam L. Hawker et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024
- Integrating social vulnerability into high-resolution global flood risk mapping S. Fox et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-47394-2
- Population exposure to flooding in Small Island Developing States under climate change L. Archer et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad78eb
- Urban Flood Drifters (UFDs): Onset of movement D. Valero et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171568
- “Effing Awful!”: developing audio representation as a medium for conveying people’s experiences of flooded homes D. Angel et al. 10.1108/DPM-01-2024-0033
- Methodology for constructing a flood-hazard map for a future climate Y. Kimura et al. 10.5194/hess-27-1627-2023
- Climate change risk trap: low-carbon spatial restructuring and disaster risk in petroleum-based economies V. Rözer et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adacfd
- Sensing climate justice: A multi-hyper graph approach for classifying urban heat and flood vulnerability through street view imagery P. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.scs.2024.106016
22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Functionality assessment of road network combining flood roadworthiness and graph topology K. He et al. 10.1016/j.trd.2024.104354
- Invited perspectives: safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments B. Merz et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024
- Accelerating compound flood risk assessments through active learning: A case study of Charleston County (USA) L. Terlinden-Ruhl et al. 10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025
- Quantifying future changes of flood hazards within the Broadland catchment in the UK R. Gudde et al. 10.1007/s11069-024-06590-5
- Urban flood drifters (UFD): Identification, classification and characterisation A. Bayón et al. 10.1111/jfr3.13002
- Seismic signature of an extreme hydro-meteorological event in Italy V. Coviello et al. 10.1038/s44304-024-00018-7
- Social limits to climate change adaptation: temporalities in behavioural responses to climate risks F. Berkhout 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101471
- Mapping vulnerability to climate-related hazards to inform local authority action in adaptation: A feasibility study J. Howkins et al. 10.1016/j.puhip.2024.100549
- Future Change in Urban Flooding Using New Convection‐Permitting Climate Projections L. Archer et al. 10.1029/2023WR035533
- Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change L. Archer et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024
- The shape-shifting form of UK floodplains: Fusing analysis of the territorially constructed with analysis of natural terrain processes J. Lewin & T. O’Shea 10.1177/03091333231156510
- Physically-based modelling of UK river flows under climate change B. Smith et al. 10.3389/frwa.2024.1468855
- Synoptic conditions conducive for compound wind-flood events in Great Britain in present and future climates H. Bloomfield et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad1cb7
- Novel extensions to the Fisher copula to model flood spatial dependence over North America D. Alexandre et al. 10.5194/hess-28-5069-2024
- Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam L. Hawker et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024
- Integrating social vulnerability into high-resolution global flood risk mapping S. Fox et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-47394-2
- Population exposure to flooding in Small Island Developing States under climate change L. Archer et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad78eb
- Urban Flood Drifters (UFDs): Onset of movement D. Valero et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171568
- “Effing Awful!”: developing audio representation as a medium for conveying people’s experiences of flooded homes D. Angel et al. 10.1108/DPM-01-2024-0033
- Methodology for constructing a flood-hazard map for a future climate Y. Kimura et al. 10.5194/hess-27-1627-2023
- Climate change risk trap: low-carbon spatial restructuring and disaster risk in petroleum-based economies V. Rözer et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/adacfd
- Sensing climate justice: A multi-hyper graph approach for classifying urban heat and flood vulnerability through street view imagery P. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.scs.2024.106016
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 24 May 2025
Executive editor
The NHESS paper “A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding” by Bates and colleagues presents and validates a new flood model for the UK that simulates pluvial, fluvial and coastal flood risks at a resolution of 20 to 25 metres. The authors then use their scheme to estimate the probability-loss distribution for UK flooding under various future climate and policy scenarios. Their paper provides the most detailed and realistic analysis to date of current and future flood risk in the UK. The key findings of their work are: (1) Previous UK flood losses based on government data and used in national climate change risk assessments are overestimated by a factor of about 3. (2) Official UK estimates lie well outside the paper's modelled loss distribution, which is plausibly centred on the observations. (3) The UK 1% annual probability flood losses were only about 6% greater in the average climate conditions of 2020 than for the period of historical river flow and rainfall observations (centred approximately on 1995). (4) Increases in risk can be kept to around ~8% if all COP26 2030 carbon emission reduction pledges and ‘net zero’ commitments are implemented in full. (5) Implementing only the COP26 pledges increases UK 1% annual probability flood losses by ~23% above recent historical values, and potentially ~37% if climate sensitivity turns out to be higher than currently thought.
The NHESS paper “A climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK flooding” by Bates and...
Short summary
We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high resolution (~ 20–25 m). We show that UK flood losses were ~ 6 % greater in the climate of 2020 compared to recent historical values. The UK can keep any future increase to ~ 8 % if all countries implement their COP26 pledges and net-zero ambitions in full. However, if only the COP26 pledges are fulfilled, then UK flood losses increase by ~ 23 %; and potentially by ~ 37 % in a worst-case scenario.
We present and validate a model that simulates current and future flood risk for the UK at high...
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