Articles | Volume 23, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Sep 2023
Research article |
| 28 Sep 2023
| 28 Sep 2023
Mangrove ecosystem properties regulate high water levels in a river delta
Ignace Pelckmans
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
ECOSPHERE, Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Antwerp,
Belgium
Jean-Philippe Belliard
ECOSPHERE, Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Antwerp,
Belgium
Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences, Brussels, Belgium
Luis E. Dominguez-Granda
Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Matematicas, Centro del Agua y Desarrollo Sostenible, Escuela Superior Politecnica
del Litoral (ESPOL), Guayaquil,
Ecuador
Cornelis Slobbe
Geoscience & Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology (TU
Delft), Delft, the Netherlands
Stijn Temmerman
ECOSPHERE, Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Antwerp,
Belgium
Olivier Gourgue
ECOSPHERE, Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Antwerp,
Belgium
Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA,
USA
Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences, Brussels, Belgium
Related authors
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Olivier Gourgue, Luis Elvin Dominguez-Granda, and Stijn Temmerman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1463–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The combination of extreme sea levels with increased river flow typically can lead to so-called compound floods. Often these are caused by storms (< 1 d), but climatic events such as El Niño could trigger compound floods over a period of months. We show that the combination of increased sea level and river discharge causes extreme water levels to amplify upstream. Mangrove forests, however, can act as a nature-based flood protection by lowering the extreme water levels coming from the sea.
Mona Huyzentruyt, Maarten Wens, Gregory Scott Fivash, David C. Walters, Steven Bouillon, Joell A. Carr, Glenn C. Guntenspergen, Matthew L. Kirwan, and Stijn Temmerman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3293, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3293, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
Vegetated environments from forests to peatlands store carbon in the soil, which mitigates climate change. But which environment does this best? In this study, we show how the levees of tidal marshes are one of the most effective carbon sequestering environments in the world. This is because soil water-logging and high salinity inhibits carbon degradation while the levee fosters fast vegetation growth, complimented also by the preferential settlement of carbon-rich sediments on the marsh levee.
Lauranne Alaerts, Jonathan Lambrechts, Ny Riana Randresihaja, Luc Vandenbulcke, Olivier Gourgue, Emmanuel Hanert, and Marilaure Grégoire
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 3125–3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3125-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-3125-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We created the first comprehensive, high-resolution, and easily accessible bathymetry dataset for the three main branches of the Danube Delta. By combining four data sources, we obtained a detailed representation of the riverbed, with resolutions ranging from 2 to 100 m. This dataset will support future studies on water and nutrient exchanges between the Danube and the Black Sea and provide insights into the delta's buffer role within the understudied Danube–Black Sea continuum.
Lennert Schepers, Mona Huyzentruyt, Matthew L. Kirwan, Glenn R. Guntenspergen, and Stijn Temmerman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2362, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2362, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Biogeosciences (BG).
Short summary
Short summary
In some tidal marshes, vegetation can convert to ponds as a result of sea level rise. We investigated to what extent this is related to decreasing strength of the marsh soil in relation to sea level rise. We found a reduction of marsh soil strength in areas with more inundation by sea water and more ponding, which results in easier erosion of the marsh and thus further expansion of ponds. This decrease in marsh soil strength is highly related to lower content of roots in the soil.
Ny Riana Randresihaja, Olivier Gourgue, Lauranne Alaerts, Xavier Fettweis, Jonathan Lambrechts, Miguel De Le Court, Marilaure Grégoire, and Emmanuel Hanert
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-634, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-634, 2025
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas face rising flood threats as storms intensifies with climate change. With an advanced model of the Scheldt Estuary-North Sea, we studied how detailed atmospheric data must be to predict storm surge peaks in estuaries. We found that high-resolution atmospheric data gives the best results, and coarser data with same resolution as current global climate models give poorer results. We show that investing in localized, high-resolution atmospheric data can significantly improve results.
Weiran Li, Stef Lhermitte, Bert Wouters, Cornelis Slobbe, Max Brils, and Xavier Fettweis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3251, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Due to the melt events in recent decades, the snow condition over Greenland has been changed. To observe this, we use a parameter (leading edge width; LeW) derived from satellite altimetry, and analyse its spatial and temporal variations. By comparing the LeW variations with modelled firn parameters, we concluded that the 2012 melt event has a long-lasting impact on the volume scattering of Greenland firn. This impact cannot fully recover due to the recent and more frequent melt events.
Sarah Hautekiet, Jan-Eike Rossius, Olivier Gourgue, Maarten Kleinhans, and Stijn Temmerman
Earth Surf. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-601-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-12-601-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study examined how vegetation growing in marshes affects the formation of tidal channel networks. Experiments were conducted to imitate marsh development, both with and without vegetation. The results show interdependency between biotic and abiotic factors in channel development. They mainly play a role when the landscape changes from bare to vegetated. Overall, the study suggests that abiotic factors are more important near the sea, while vegetation plays a larger role closer to the land.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Olivier Gourgue, Luis Elvin Dominguez-Granda, and Stijn Temmerman
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1463–1476, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1463-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1463-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The combination of extreme sea levels with increased river flow typically can lead to so-called compound floods. Often these are caused by storms (< 1 d), but climatic events such as El Niño could trigger compound floods over a period of months. We show that the combination of increased sea level and river discharge causes extreme water levels to amplify upstream. Mangrove forests, however, can act as a nature-based flood protection by lowering the extreme water levels coming from the sea.
Weiran Li, Cornelis Slobbe, and Stef Lhermitte
The Cryosphere, 16, 2225–2243, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2225-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-2225-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a new method for correcting the slope-induced errors in satellite radar altimetry. The slope-induced errors can significantly affect the height estimations of ice sheets if left uncorrected. This study applies the method to radar altimetry data (CryoSat-2) and compares the performance with two existing methods. The performance is assessed by comparison with independent height measurements from ICESat-2. The assessment shows that the method performs promisingly.
Olivier Gourgue, Jim van Belzen, Christian Schwarz, Wouter Vandenbruwaene, Joris Vanlede, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Sergio Fagherazzi, Tjeerd J. Bouma, Johan van de Koppel, and Stijn Temmerman
Earth Surf. Dynam., 10, 531–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-531-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-10-531-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is an increasing demand for tidal-marsh restoration around the world. We have developed a new modeling approach to reduce the uncertainty associated with this development. Its application to a real tidal-marsh restoration project in northwestern Europe illustrates how the rate of landscape development can be steered by restoration design, with important consequences for restored tidal-marsh resilience to increasing sea level rise and decreasing sediment supply.
Rey Harvey Suello, Simon Lucas Hernandez, Steven Bouillon, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis Dominguez-Granda, Marijn Van de Broek, Andrea Mishell Rosado Moncayo, John Ramos Veliz, Karem Pollette Ramirez, Gerard Govers, and Stijn Temmerman
Biogeosciences, 19, 1571–1585, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1571-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-1571-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This research shows indications that the age of the mangrove forest and its position along a deltaic gradient (upstream–downstream) play a vital role in the amount and sources of carbon stored in the mangrove sediments. Our findings also imply that carbon capture by the mangrove ecosystem itself contributes partly but relatively little to long-term sediment organic carbon storage. This finding is particularly relevant for budgeting the potential of mangrove ecosystems to mitigate climate change.
Florian Lauryssen, Philippe Crombé, Tom Maris, Elliot Van Maldegem, Marijn Van de Broek, Stijn Temmerman, and Erik Smolders
Biogeosciences, 19, 763–776, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-763-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-763-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Surface waters in lowland regions have a poor surface water quality, mainly due to excess nutrients like phosphate. Therefore, we wanted to know the phosphate levels without humans, also called the pre-industrial background. Phosphate binds strongly to sediment particles, suspended in the river water. In this research we used sediments deposited by a river as an archive for surface water phosphate back to 1800 CE. Pre-industrial phosphate levels were estimated at one-third of the modern levels.
Zhan Hu, Pim W. J. M. Willemsen, Bas W. Borsje, Chen Wang, Heng Wang, Daphne van der Wal, Zhenchang Zhu, Bas Oteman, Vincent Vuik, Ben Evans, Iris Möller, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Alexander Van Braeckel, Stijn Temmerman, and Tjeerd J. Bouma
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 405–416, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-405-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-405-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Erosion and accretion processes govern the ecogeomorphic evolution of intertidal (salt marsh and tidal flat) ecosystems and hence substantially affect their valuable ecosystem services. By applying a novel sensor, we obtained unique high-resolution daily bed-level change datasets from 10 marsh–mudflat sites in northwestern Europe. This dataset has revealed diverse spatial bed-level change patterns over daily to seasonal scales, which are valuable to theoretical and model development.
Chen Wang, Lennert Schepers, Matthew L. Kirwan, Enrica Belluco, Andrea D'Alpaos, Qiao Wang, Shoujing Yin, and Stijn Temmerman
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 71–88, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-71-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-71-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal marshes are valuable natural habitats with normally dense vegetation. The presence of bare patches is a symptom of habitat degradation. We found that the occurrence of bare patches and regrowth of vegetation is related to spatial variations in soil surface elevation and to the distance and connectivity to tidal creeks. These relations are similar in three marshes at very different geographical locations. Our results may help nature managers to conserve and restore coastal marshes.
Marijn Van de Broek, Stijn Temmerman, Roel Merckx, and Gerard Govers
Biogeosciences, 13, 6611–6624, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6611-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6611-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The results of this study on the organic carbon (OC) stocks of tidal marshes show that variations in OC stocks along estuaries are important and should be taken into account to make accurate estimates of the total amount of OC stored in these ecosystems. Moreover, our results clearly show that most studies underestimate the variation in OC stocks along estuaries due to a shallow sampling depth, neglecting the variation in OC decomposition after burial along estuaries.
S. Smolders, Y. Plancke, S. Ides, P. Meire, and S. Temmerman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1659–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1659-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1659-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Within a confined estuary, a large wetland can play an important role in storm surge mitigation. By use of a numerical model the effects of different wetland sizes, wetland elevations and wetland locations along the estuary on storm surge attenuation along the estuary were investigated. With this paper we aim to contribute towards a better understanding and wider implementation of ecosystem-based adaptation to increasing estuarine flood risks associated with storms.
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
How does perceived heat stress differ between urban forms and human vulnerability profiles? Case study Berlin
Modelling flood losses of micro-businesses in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Tracing online flood conversations across borders: a watershed-level analysis of geo-social media topics during the 2021 European flood
An evaluation of the alignment of drought policy and planning guidelines with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda
Qualitative risk assessment of sensitive infrastructures at the local level: flooding and heavy rainfall
Measuring extremes-driven direct biophysical impacts in agricultural drought damages
Brief communication: Bridging the data gap – a call to enhance the representation of global coastal flood protection
Disaster management following the great Kahramanmaraş earthquakes in 2023, Türkiye
From insufficient rainfall to livelihoods: understanding the cascade of drought impacts and policy implications
Assessing future impacts of tropical cyclones on global banana production
Review article: Applicability and effectiveness of structural measures for subsidence (risk) reduction in urban areas
The Effect of Community Resilience and Disaster Risk Management Cycle Stages on Morbi-Mortality Following Floods: An Empirical Assessment
Unravelling the capacity–action gap in flood risk adaptation
Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart
Assessing the impact of early warning and evacuation on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany using agent-based modelling
Modeling Regional Production Capacity Loss Rates Considering Response Bias: Insights from a Questionnaire Survey on Zhengzhou Flood
Warnings based on risk matrices: a coherent framework with consistent evaluation
Adaptive behavior of farmers under consecutive droughts results in more vulnerable farmers: a large-scale agent-based modeling analysis in the Bhima basin, India
Content analysis of multi-annual time series of flood-related Twitter (X) data
Enhancement of state response capability and famine mitigation: a comparative analysis of two drought events in northern China during the Ming dynasty
Flood exposure of environmental assets
A new method for calculating highway blocking due to high-impact weather conditions
Review Article: Analysis of sediment disaster risk assessment surveys in Brazil: A critical review and recommendations
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Flood exposure in Rotterdam’s unembanked areas from 1970 to 2150: sensitivities to urban development, sea level rise and adaptation
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Monitoring agricultural and economic drought: the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI)
Ready, Set & Go! An anticipatory action system against droughts
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific–technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment
Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty
Migration as a hidden risk factor in seismic fatality: spatial modeling of the Chi-Chi earthquake and suburban syndrome
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree river basin, Germany
Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Critical infrastructure resilience: a guide for building indicator systems based on a multi-criteria framework with a focus on implementable actions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Dynamic response of pile–slab retaining wall structure under rockfall impact
Reevaluating Flood Protection: Disaster Risk Reduction for Urbanized Alluvial Fans
Brief communication: Comprehensive Resilience to Typhoon Disasters: An Urban Assessment of 27 Cities in Seven Major River Basin, China
What if extreme droughts occur more frequently? – Mechanisms and limits of forest adaptation in pine monocultures and mixed forests in Berlin-Brandenburg, Germany
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
Sectoral Vulnerability to Drought: Exploring the Role of Blue and Green Water Dependency in Mid and High-Latitudes
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Invited perspectives: Fostering interoperability of data, models, communication and governance for disaster resilience through transdisciplinary knowledge co-production
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Flood relief logistics planning for coastal cities: a case study in Shanghai, China
Review article: Co-creating knowledge for drought impact assessment in socio-hydrology
Nimra Iqbal, Marvin Ravan, Zina Mitraka, Joern Birkmann, Sue Grimmond, Denise Hertwig, Nektarios Chrysoulakis, Giorgos Somarakis, Angela Wendnagel-Beck, and Emmanouil Panagiotakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2481–2502, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2481-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2481-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work deepens the understanding of how perceived heat stress, human vulnerability (e.g. age, income) and adaptive capacities (e.g. green, shaded spaces) are coupled with urban structures. The results show that perceived heat stress decreases with distance from the urban center, however, human vulnerability and adaptive capacities depend more strongly on inner variations and differences between urban structures. Planning policies and adaptation strategies should account for these differences.
Anna Buch, Dominik Paprotny, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, and Nivedita Sairam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2437–2453, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2437-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2437-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Many households in Vietnam depend on revenue from micro-businesses (shop houses). However, losses caused by regular flooding are not modelled. Business turnover, building age, and water depth were found to be the main drivers of flood losses of micro-businesses. We built and validated probabilistic models (non-parametric Bayesian networks) that estimate flood losses of micro-businesses. The results help with flood risk management and adaption decision making for micro-businesses.
Sébastien Dujardin, Dorian Arifi, Sebastian Schmidt, Catherine Linard, and Bernd Resch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2351–2369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2351-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2351-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research explores how social media can help understand public responses to floods, focusing on the 2021 western European flood. We found that discussions varied by location and flood impact: in-disaster concerns were more common in severely affected upstream areas, while post-disaster topics dominated downstream. Findings show the potential of social media for improving disaster coordination along cross-border rivers in time-sensitive situations.
Ilyas Masih
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2155–2178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2155-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2155-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study evaluates 12 sets of drought policy and planning guidelines for their alignment with the four priority areas of the SENDAI framework. The guidelines do not align very well with the contemporary disaster risk reduction agenda. The study highlights strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats and provides useful insights to develop the next generation of drought guidelines that are better aligned with contemporary science–policy–practice agendas.
Alessa Truedinger, Joern Birkmann, Mark Fleischhauer, and Celso Ferreira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2097–2113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2097-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2097-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In post-disaster reconstruction, emphasis should be placed on critical and sensitive infrastructures. In Germany, as in other countries, sensitive infrastructures have not yet been focused on; therefore, we developed a method for determining the risk that sensitive infrastructures are facing in the context of riverine and pluvial flooding. The easy-to-use assessment framework can be applied to various sensitive infrastructures, e.g., to qualify and accelerate decisions in the reconstruction process.
Mansi Nagpal, Jasmin Heilemann, Luis Samaniego, Bernd Klauer, Erik Gawel, and Christian Klassert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2115–2135, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2115-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2115-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study measures the direct effects of droughts in association with other extreme weather events on agriculture in Germany at the district level. Using a statistical yield model, we quantify the direct damage of extremes on crop yields and farm revenue. Extreme events during drought cause an average annual damage of EUR 781 million, accounting for 45 % of reported revenue losses. The insights herein can help develop better strategies for managing and mitigating the effects of future climate extremes.
Nicole van Maanen, Joël J.-F. G. De Plaen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Maria Luisa Colmenares, Philip J. Ward, Paolo Scussolini, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2075–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding coastal flood protection is vital for assessing risks from natural disasters and climate change. However, current global data on coastal flood protection are limited and based on simplified assumptions, leading to potential uncertainties in risk estimates. As a step in this direction, we propose a comprehensive dataset, COASTtal flood PROtection Standards within EUrope (COASTPROS-EU), which compiles coastal flood protection standards in Europe.
Bektaş Sarı
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2031–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2031-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2031-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
After the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, the Turkish Government mobilized all available resources, ensured regular information updates, and deployed a significant number of rescue personnel to the affected areas. However, the scale of this devastating disaster, resulting in the loss of over 50 000 lives, underscores the critical importance of building earthquake-resistant structures as the most effective means to mitigate such calamities.
Louise Cavalcante, David W. Walker, Sarra Kchouk, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Taís Maria Nunes Carvalho, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Wieke Pot, Art Dewulf, and Pieter R. van Oel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1993–2005, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1993-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1993-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Drought affects not only water availability but also agriculture, the economy, and communities. This study explores how public policies help reduce these impacts in Ceará, Northeast Brazil. Using qualitative drought monitoring data, interviews, and policy analysis, we found that policies supporting local economies help lessen drought effects. However, most reported impacts are still related to water shortages, showing the need for broader strategies beyond water supply investment.
Sophie Kaashoek, Žiga Malek, Nadia Bloemendaal, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1963–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1963-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1963-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical storms are expected to get stronger all over the world, and this will have a big impact on people, buildings and important activities like growing bananas. Already, in different parts of the world, banana farms are being hurt by these storms, which makes banana prices go up and affects the people who grow them. We are not sure how these storms will affect bananas everywhere in the future. We assessed what happened to banana farms during storms in different parts of the world.
Nicoletta Nappo and Mandy Korff
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1811–1839, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1811-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1811-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Cities in coastal and delta areas need effective engineering techniques to counteract subsidence and its damage. This paper presents a framework for choosing these techniques using a decision tree and four performance parameters. This procedure was tested on various cases representative of different scenarios. This demonstrated the potential of this method for initial screenings of techniques which site-specific assessments should always follow.
Raquel Guimaraes, Reinhard Mechler, Stefan Velev, and Dipesh Chapagain
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1947, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1947, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how communities can better protect people's lives and health during floods. By looking at 66 communities in seven countries, we found that strong social ties and preparedness before disasters helped reduce injuries and deaths. However, some environmental efforts didn't show clear health benefits, especially in degraded areas. Our research highlights how early planning and strong local networks can make a real difference during crises.
Annika Schubert, Anne von Streit, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1621–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1621-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1621-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Households play a crucial role in climate adaptation efforts. Yet, households require capacities to implement measures. We explore which capacities enable German households to adapt to flooding. Our results indicate that flood-related capacities such as risk perception, responsibility appraisal, and motivation are pivotal, whereas financial assets are secondary. Enhancing these specific capacities, e.g. through collaborations between households and municipalities, could promote local adaptation.
Joanna M. McMillan, Franziska Göttsche, Joern Birkmann, Rainer Kapp, Corinna Schmidt, Britta Weisser, and Ali Jamshed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1573–1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1573-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1573-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Adapting to climate extremes is a challenge for spatial planning. Risk maps that include not just a consideration of hazards but also social vulnerability can help. We develop social vulnerability maps for the Stuttgart region, Germany. We show the maps, describe how and why we developed them, and provide an analysis of practitioners' needs and their feedback. Insights presented in this paper can help to improve map usability and to better link research and planning practice.
André Felipe Rocha Silva, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Heiko Apel, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.
Lijiao Yang, Yan Luo, Zilong Li, and Xinyu Jiang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3923, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3923, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a response-bias-tolerant methodology for constructing production capacity loss rate (PCLR) curves, which addresses response bias in extreme flood scenarios and considers the distribution characteristics of PCLR under different damage states. The core value of this study is to provide a competing and promising input in economic modeling, such as input-output and computable general equilibrium models.
Robert J. Taggart and David J. Wilke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-323, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-323, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research presents a new method for determining warning levels for any hazard. Using risk matrices, our framework addresses issues found in other approaches. We provide examples to demonstrate how the approach works. A powerful method for evaluating warning accuracy is given, allowing for a cycle of continuous improvement in warning services. This research is relevant to a broad audience, from those who develop forecast systems to practitioners who issue or communicate warnings.
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated farmers' individual choices – like changing crops or digging wells – and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damage. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrological models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, Jens A. de Bruijn, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Andrea Cominola
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 879–891, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-879-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores how social media, specifically Twitter (X), can help us understand public reactions to floods in Germany from 2014 to 2021. Using large language models, we extract topics and patterns of behavior from flood-related tweets. The findings offer insights to improve communication and disaster management. Topics related to low-impact flooding contain descriptive hazard-related content, while the focus shifts to catastrophic impacts and responsibilities during high-impact events.
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 591–607, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. The spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua drought and the Wanli drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
Gabriele Bertoli, Chiara Arrighi, and Enrica Caporali
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 565–580, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-565-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Environmental assets are crucial to sustaining and fulfilling life on Earth via ecosystem services (ESs). Studying their flood risk is thus seminal, in addition to being required by several norms. However, this field is not yet adequately developed. We studied the exposure component of flood risk and developed an evaluating methodology based on the ESs provided by environmental assets to discern assets and areas that are more important than others with metrics suitable to large-scale studies.
Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, and Fan Zu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 493–513, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-493-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Highway-blocking events are characterized by diurnal variation. A classification method of severity levels of highway blocking is catagorized into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated. A method for calculating the degree of highway load in China is proposed. A quantitative assessment of the losses of highway blocking due to dense fog is conducted. The highway losses caused by dense fog are concentrated in North, East, and Southwest China.
Thiago Dutra dos Santos and Taro Uchida
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2255, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2255, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Five federal sediment-related disaster risk assessments have been conducted in Brazil, each with distinct objectives and methodologies. To evaluate their effectiveness and identify issues, we analyzed the methods, the outcome data, and reviewed the status of disaster prevention initiatives based on the assessment results. Our findings revealed persistent problems across all methods. Consequently, we recommended improvements to enhance their efficacy and reliability.
Alexandre Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander L. Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards like earthquakes often trigger other disasters, such as landslides, creating complex chains of impacts. We developed a risk model using a mathematical approach called hypergraphs to efficiently measure the impact of interconnected hazards. We showed that it can predict broad patterns of damage to buildings and roads from the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The model's efficiency allows it to generate multiple disaster scenarios, even at a national scale, to support preparedness plans.
Cees Oerlemans, Martine van den Boomen, Ties Rijcken, and Matthijs Kok
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2910, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2910, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study analyzes flood exposure in Rotterdam's unembanked areas from 1970 to 2150, exploring the interplay between rising sea levels, urban development, and flood protection measures. Without measures, flood exposure will increase, especially after 2100. The Maeslant storm surge barrier had the most impact on flood exposure, followed by urban development and sea level rise. Varied exposure levels across neighborhoods suggest the need for localized adaptation strategies.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 49–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-49-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history mean the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry are scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study to determine the suitability of current published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset–hazard taxonomy is proposed to guide future quantitative research.
Neal Hughes, Donald Gaydon, Mihir Gupta, Andrew Schepen, Peter Tan, Geoffrey Brent, Andrew Turner, Sean Bellew, Wei Ying Soh, Christopher Sharman, Peter Taylor, John Carter, Dorine Bruget, Zvi Hochman, Ross Searle, Yong Song, Heidi Horan, Patrick Mitchell, Yacob Beletse, Dean Holzworth, Laura Guillory, Connor Brodie, Jonathon McComb, and Ramneek Singh
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3731, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3731, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts can impact agriculture and regional economies, and their severity is rising with climate change. Our research introduces a new system, the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI), which measures droughts based on their effects on crops, livestock, and farm profits rather than traditional weather metrics. Using climate data and modelling, AADI predicts drought impacts more accurately, helping policymakers prepare and respond to financial and social challenges during droughts.
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Manuel Lemos Pereira Bonifácio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4661–4682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4661-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The
Ready, Set & Go!system, developed by the World Food Programme and partners, employs seasonal forecasts to tackle droughts in Mozambique. With the Maputo Declaration, efforts to expand early warning systems are aligning with global initiatives for universal protection by 2027. Through advanced forecasting and anticipatory action, it could cover 76 % of districts against severe droughts, reaching 87 % national coverage for the first months of the rainy season.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4631–4660, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4631-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction of the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructure to increase their capabilities.
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4507–4522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4507-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investment, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows for identifying the critical points where single-value estimates may underestimate the risk and the areas of vulnerability for prioritizing risk reduction efforts.
Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4457–4471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4457-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows migration patterns to be a critical factor in seismic fatalities. Analyzing the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, we find that lower income and a higher indigenous population at migrants' origins are correlated with higher fatalities at their destinations. This underscores the need for affordable and safe housing on the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower-income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside due to precarious employment conditions.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, W. J. Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4409–4429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4409-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As sea levels rise, coastal areas will experience more frequent flooding, and salt water will start seeping into the soil, which is a serious issue for farmers who rely on good soil quality for their crops. Here, we studied coastal Mozambique to understand the risks from sea level rise and flooding by looking at how salt intrusion affects farming and how floods damage buildings. We find that 15 %–21 % of coastal households will adapt and 13 %–20 % will migrate to inland areas in the future.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4369–4383, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4369-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in plans for water management, spatial planning and landscape planning in the Spree river basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures, and the adaptation of best-practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) spans four countries with 59 volcanoes. We identify those with the most intense and frequent eruptions and the highest potential impact that require risk mitigation actions. Using multiple risk factors, we encourage the use of regional volcanic risk assessments to analyse the level of preparedness especially of transboundary volcanoes. We hope that our work will motivate further collaborative studies and promote cooperation between CVZA countries.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamín Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, Georgios Triantafyllou, and Ulugbek T. Begaliev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3851–3868, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To integrate resilience assessment into practical management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables managers of critical infrastructure (CI) to create specific indicator systems tailored to real cases. This guide considers the consequences of hazards to CI and the cost–benefit analysis and side effects of implementable actions. The assessment results assist managers, as they are based on a multi-criterion framework that addresses several factors valued in practical management.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
Tamir Grodek and Gerardo Benito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-171, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-171, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Check dams, terraces, and trees on steep basins serve to retain sediments, thereby protecting urbanized alluvial fan canals and levees from flooding. However, their effectiveness gradually decreases over time due to sedimentation and aging, which may lead to catastrophic breaching floods. To enhance urban resilience, we propose preserving natural mountain basins and allocating 20–30 % of the alluvial fan for channel migration and sediment deposition corridors.
Zezhao Liu, Jiahui Yang, and Cong Wu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2343, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2343, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We construct an indicator-based framework, and assess urban resilience to typhoon in China’s contexts for the seven major river basins. Results verified the heterogeneity, and the resilience level in certain circumstance was not matched with city strength of economy. The analysis is helpful for government to enhance capability of resilience in specific dimensions, and provides a reference in probing urban resilience assessment confronting typhoon.
Jamir Priesner, Boris Sakschewski, Maik Billing, Werner von Bloh, Sebastian Fiedler, Sarah Bereswill, Kirsten Thonicke, and Britta Tietjen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3066, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our simulations suggest that increased drought frequencies lead to a drastic reduction in biomass in pine monoculture and mixed forest. Mixed forest eventually recovered, as long as drought frequencies was not too high. The higher resilience of mixed forests was due to higher adaptive capacity. After adaptation mixed forests were mainly composed of smaller, broad-leaved trees with higher wood density and slower growth.This would have strong implications for forestry and other ecosystem services.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Elin Stenfors, Malgorzata Blicharska, Thomas Grabs, and Claudia Teutschbein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2726, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Utilizing a survey including respondents from seven societal sectors, the role of water dependency for drought vulnerability was explored. Differences were found in the perceived impact of vulnerability factors on drought risk in relation to water dependency (i.e., dependency on either soil moisture, or groundwater and surface water). The results highlight the importance of accounting for water dependency, and to clearly define the drought hazard, in drought vulnerability or risk assessments.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Kai Schröter, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Benedikt Gräler, Lydia Cumiskey, Sukaina Bharwani, Janne Parviainen, Chahan Kropf, Viktor Wattin Hakansson, Martin Drews, Tracy Irvine, Clarissa Dondi, Heiko Apel, Jana Löhrlein, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefano Bagli, Levente Huszti, Christopher Genillard, Silvia Unguendoli, and Max Steinhausen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-135, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-135, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
With the increasing negative impacts of extreme weather events globally, it's crucial to align efforts to manage disasters with measures to adapt to climate change. We identify challenges in systems and organizations working together. We suggest that collaboration across various fields is essential and propose an approach to improve collaboration, including a framework for better stakeholder engagement and an open-source data system that helps gather and connect important information.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Pujun Liang, Jie Yin, Dandan Wang, Yi Lu, Yuhan Yang, Dan Gao, and Jianfeng Mai
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-88, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-88, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Addressing coastal city flood risks, this article examines relief logistics planning, employing a GIS-network analysis and optimization model to minimize costs and dissatisfaction. The investigation, grounded in Shanghai's emergency infrastructure and flood relief logistics framework, presents feasible distribution strategies. Meanwhile, the case study indicates that the supply levels of Emergency Flood Shelters and Emergency Reserve Warehouses vary in different coastal flood scenarios.
Silvia De Angeli, Lorenzo Villani, Giulio Castelli, Maria Rusca, Giorgio Boni, Elena Bresci, and Luigi Piemontese
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2207, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2207, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite droughts are deeply intertwined within sociohydrological systems, traditional top-down approaches often ignore those directly affected. By integrating insights from five research fields, we present a framework to guide the co-creation of knowledge for drought impact assessment. Emphasizing social dynamics and power imbalances, the framework guides a more inclusive approach to drought assessment and adaptation.
Cited articles
Allen, J. I., Somerfield, P. J., and Gilbert, F. J.: Quantifying uncertainty
in high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem models, J. Marine Syst., 64,
3–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2006.02.010, 2007.
Baptist, M. J., Babovic, V., Uthurburu, J. R., Keijzer, M., Uittenbogaard,
R. E., Mynett, A., and Verwey, A.: On inducing equations for vegetation
resistance, J. Hydraul. Res., 45, 435–450,
https://doi.org/10.1080/00221686.2007.9521778, 2007.
Belliard, J.-P., Dominguez-Granda, L. E., Ramos-Veliz, J. A.,
Rosado-Moncayo, A. M., Nath, J., Govers, G., Gourgue, O., and Temmerman, S.:
El Niño driven extreme sea levels in an Eastern Pacific tropical river
delta: Landward amplification and shift from oceanic to fluvial forcing,
Global Planet. Change, 203, 103529,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2021.103529, 2021.
Biancamaria, S., Lettenmaier D. P., and Pavelsky, T. M.: The SWOT Mission and Its Capabilities for Land Hydrology, Surv. Geophys., 37, 307–337, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-015-9346-y, 2016.
Bishop-Taylor, R., Sagar, S., Lymburner, L., Alam, I., Australia, J. S. G.,
Ave, C. J., and Drive, H.: Sub-Pixel Waterline Extraction: Characterising
Accuracy and Sensitivity to Indices and Spectra, Remote Sens., 11, 1–23,
https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11242984, 2019.
Chen, Q., Li, Y., Kelly, D. M., Zhang, K., Zachry, B., and Rhome, J.:
Improved modeling of the role of mangroves in storm surge attenuation,
Estuar. Coast Shelf Sci., 260, 107515,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2021.107515, 2021.
Day, J. W., Agboola, J., Chen, Z., D'Elia, C., Forbes, D. L., Giosan, L.,
Kemp, P., Kuenzer, C., Lane, R. R., Ramachandran, R., Syvitski, J., and
Yañez-Arancibia, A.: Approaches to defining deltaic sustainability in
the 21st century, Estuar. Coast Shelf Sci., 183, 275–291,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.06.018, 2016.
Deb, M. and Ferreira, C. M.: Potential impacts of the Sunderban mangrove
degradation on future coastal flooding in Bangladesh, J. Hydro.-Environ. Res.,
17, 30–46, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jher.2016.11.005, 2017.
Deb, M., Abdolali, A., Kirby, J. T., and Shi, F.: Hydrodynamic modeling of
a complex salt marsh system: Importance of channel shoreline and bathymetric
resolution, Coast. Eng., 173, 104094,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.COASTALENG.2022.104094, 2022.
Dominicis, M. D., Wolf, J., Hespen, R. van, Zheng, P., and Hu, Z.: Mangrove
forests can be an effective coastal defence in the Pearl River Delta, China,
Commun. Earth Environ., 4, 13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00672-7,
2023.
Edmonds, D. A., Caldwell, R. L., Brondizio, E. S., and Siani, S. M. O.:
Coastal flooding will disproportionately impact people on river deltas, Nat.
Commun., 11, 4741, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18531-4, 2020.
Egbert, G. D. and Erofeeva, S. Y.: Efficient Inverse Modeling of Barotropic
Ocean Tides, J. Atmos. Ocean. Tech., 19, 183–204,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2002)019<0183:eimobo>2.0.co;2, 2002.
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G.,
Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Kopp, R. E.,
Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I. S., Ruiz, L.,
Sallée, J.-B., Slangen, A. B. A., and Yu, Y.: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1211–1362, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.011, 2021.
Gijsman, R., Horstman, E. M., Wal, D. van der, Friess, D. A., Swales, A.,
and Wijnberg, K. M.: Nature-Based Engineering: A
Review on Reducing Coastal Flood Risk With Mangroves, Front. Mar.
Sci., 8, 702412, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.702412, 2021.
Glass, E. M., Garzon, J. L., Lawler, S., Paquier, E., and Ferreira, C. M.:
Potential of marshes to attenuate storm surge water level in the Chesapeake
Bay, Limnol. Oceanogr., 63, 951–967, https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.10682, 2018.
Glavovic, B. C., Dawson, R., Chow, W., Garschagen, M., Haasnoot, M., Singh,
C., and Thomas, A.: Cross-Chapter Paper 2: Cities and Settlements by the Sea Supplementary Material, in: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E. S., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Craig, M., Langsdorf, S., Löschke, S., Möller, V., Okem, A., and Rama, B., 2163–2194, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/ (last access: 1 March 2023), 2022.
Gori, A., Lin, N., and Smith, J.: Assessing Compound Flooding From
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones on the North Carolina, Coast. Water Resour.
Res., 56, e2019WR026788,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019wr026788, 2020.
Guannel, G., Arkema, K., Ruggiero, P., and Verutes, G.: The Power of Three:
Coral Reefs, Seagrasses and Mangroves Protect Coastal Regions and Increase
Their Resilience, Plos One, 11, e0158094,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0158094, 2016.
Hallegatte, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R. J., and Corfee-Morlot, J.: Future
flood losses in major coastal cities, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 802–806,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1979, 2013.
Hamilton, S. E.: Mangroves and Aquaculture: A Five Decade Remote Sensing
Analysis of Ecuador's Estuarine Environments, Springer,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22240-6, 2019.
Harrison, L. M., Coulthard, T. J., Robins, P. E., and Lewis, M. J.:
Sensitivity of Estuaries to Compound Flooding, Estuar. Coast., 45,
1250–1269, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-021-00996-1, 2022.
Hengl, T. and Parente, L.: Monthly precipitation in mm at 1 km resolution (multisource average) based on SM2RAIN-ASCAT
2007–2021, CHELSA Climate and WorldClim, Zenodo [data set],
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6458580, 2022.
Hervouet, J.: Hydrodynamics of Free Surface Flows, Hoboken, NJ, United
States: Wiley-Blackwell, Hoboken, NJ, United States, Wiley-Blackwell,
https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470319628, 2007.
Horstman, E. M., Dohmen-Janssen, C. M., Bouma, T. J., and Hulscher, S. J. M.
H.: Tidal-scale flow routing and sedimentation in mangrove forests:
Combining field data and numerical modelling, Geomorphology, 228, 244–262,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.08.011, 2015.
Horstman, E. M., Bryan, K. R., and Mullarney, J. C.: Drag variations, tidal
asymmetry and tidal range changes in a mangrove creek system, Earth Surf.
Proc. Land., 46, 1828–1846, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.5124, 2021.
Hu, K., Chen, Q., and Wang, H.: A numerical study of vegetation impact on
reducing storm surge by wetlands in a semi-enclosed estuary, Coast. Eng., 95, 66–76, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.09.008,
2015.
Krauss, K. W., Doyle, T. W., Doyle, T. J., Swarzenski, C. M., From, A. S.,
Day, R. H., and Conner, W. H.: Note water level observations in mangrove
swamps during two hurricanes in Florida, Wetlands, 29, 142–149, 2009.
Lawler, S., Haddad, J., and Ferreira, C. M.: Sensitivity considerations and
the impact of spatial scaling for storm surge modeling in wetlands of the
Mid-Atlantic region, Ocean Coast. Manag., 134, 226–238,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2016.10.008, 2016.
Li, L., Wang, X. H., Williams, D., Sidhu, H., and Song, D.: Numerical study
of the effects of mangrove areas and tidal flats on tides: A case study of
Darwin Harbour, Australia, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 117,
1–12, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jc007494, 2012.
Liu, H., Zhang, K., Li, Y., and Xie, L.: Numerical study of the sensitivity of mangroves in reducing storm surge and flooding to hurricane characteristics in southern Florida, Cont. Shelf Res., 64, 51–65, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2013.05.015, 2013.
Mazda, Y., Wolanski, E., King, B., Sase, A., Ohtsuka, D., and Magi, M.: Drag
force due to vegetation in mangrove swamps, Mangroves and Salt Marshes, 1,
193–199, https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1009949411068, 1997.
Mazda, Y., Kobashi, D., and Okada, S.: Tidal-Scale Hydrodynamics within
Mangrove Swamps, Wetl. Ecol. Manag., 13, 647–655,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11273-005-0613-4, 2005.
Montgomery, J., Bryan, K., Horstman, E., and Mullarney, J.: Attenuation of
Tides and Surges by Mangroves: Contrasting Case Studies from New Zealand,
Water, 10, 1119, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10091119, 2018.
Montgomery, J. M., Bryan, K. R., Mullarney, J. C., and Horstman, E. M.:
Attenuation of Storm Surges by Coastal Mangroves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46,
2680–2689, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl081636, 2019.
Moriasi, D. N., Arnold, J. G., Liew, M. W. V., Bingner, R. L., Harmel, R.
D., and Veith, T. L.: Model Evaluation Guidelines for Systematic
Quantification of Accuracy in Watershed Simulations, T.
ASABE, 50, 885–900, https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.23153, 2007.
Mori, N., Chang, C. W., Inoue, T., Akaji, Y., Hinokidani, K., Baba, S.,
Takagi, M., Mori, S., Koike, H., Miyauchi, M., Suganuma, R., Sabunas, A.,
Miyashita, T., and Shimura, T.: Parameterization of Mangrove Root Structure
of Rhizophora stylosa in Coastal Hydrodynamic Model, Front. Built
Environ., 7, 176, https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2021.782219/bibtex, 2022.
Narayan, S., Beck, M. W., Reguero, B. G., Losada, I. J., Wesenbeeck, B. van,
Pontee, N., Sanchirico, J. N., Ingram, J. C., Lange, G.-M., and Burks-Copes,
K. A.: The Effectiveness, Costs and Coastal Protection Benefits of Natural
and Nature-Based Defences, Plos One, 11, e0154735,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0154735, 2016.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual
models part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6, 1970.
Neumann, B., Vafeidis, A. T., Zimmermann, J., and Nicholls, R. J.: Future
Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal
Flooding – A Global Assessment, Plos One, 10, e0118571,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0118571, 2015.
Reguero, B. G., Losada, I. J., Díaz-Simal, P., Méndez, F. J., and
Beck, M. W.: Effects of Climate Change on Exposure to Coastal Flooding in
Latin America and the Caribbean, Plos One, 10, e0133409,
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0133409, 2015.
Schwarz, C., Rees, F. van, Xie, D., Kleinhans, M. G., and Maanen, B. van:
Salt marshes create more extensive channel networks than mangroves, Nat.
Commun., 13, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29654-1, 2022.
Sheng, Y. P., Rivera-Nieves, A. A., Zou, R., and Paramygin, V. A.: Role of
wetlands in reducing structural loss is highly dependent on characteristics
of storms and local wetland and structure conditions, Sci. Rep., 11, 5237,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-84701-z, 2021.
Slobbe, D. C., Verlaan, M., Klees, R., and Gerritsen, H.: Obtaining
instantaneous water levels relative to a geoid with a 2D storm surge model,
Cont. Shelf Res., 52, 172–189, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2012.10.002,
2013.
Smolders, S., Plancke, Y., Ides, S., Meire, P., and Temmerman, S.: Role of intertidal wetlands for tidal and storm tide attenuation along a confined estuary: a model study, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1659–1675, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1659-2015, 2015.
Stark, J., Oyen, T., Meire, P., and Temmerman, S.: Observations of tidal and
storm surge attenuation in a large tidal marsh, Limnol Oceanogr., 60,
1371–1381, https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.10104, 2015.
Stark, J., Plancke, Y., Ides, S., Meire, P., and Temmerman, S.: Coastal
flood protection by a combined nature-based and engineering approach:
Modeling the effects of marsh geometry and surrounding dikes, Estuar. Coast.
Shelf Sci., 175, 34–45, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.03.027, 2016.
Su, J., Friess, D. A., and Gasparatos, A.: A meta-analysis of the ecological
and economic outcomes of mangrove restoration, Nat. Commun., 12, 5050,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25349-1, 2021.
Temmerman, S., Meire, P., Bouma, T. J., Herman, P. M. J., Ysebaert, T., and
Vriend, H. J. D.: Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global
change, Nature, 504, 79–83, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12859, 2013.
Temmerman, S., Horstman, E. M., Krauss, K. W., Mullarney, J. C., Pelckmans,
I., and Schoutens, K.: Marshes and Mangroves as Nature-Based Coastal Storm
Buffers, Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci., 15, 95–118,
https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-040422-092951, 2022.
Tessler, Z. D., Vörösmarty, C. J., Grossberg, M., Gladkova, I.,
Aizenman, H., Syvitski, J. P. M., and Foufoula-Georgiou, E.: Profiling risk
and sustainability in coastal deltas of the world, Science, 349, 638–643,
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aab3574, 2015.
Twilley, R. R., Cardenas, W., Rivera-Monroy, V. H., Espinoza, J., Suescum,
R., Armijos, M. M., and Solorzano, L.: The Gulf of Guayaquil and the Guayas
River Estuary Ecuador, Ecol. Stud., 144, 245–263, 2001.
Vandenbruwaene, W., Bouma, T. J., Meire, P., and Temmerman, S.:
Bio-geomorphic effects on tidal channel evolution: impact of vegetation
establishment and tidal prism change, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 38,
122–132, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.3265, 2013.
Vandenbruwaene, W., Schwarz, C., Bouma, T. J., Meire, P., and Temmerman, S.:
Landscape-scale flow patterns over a vegetated tidal marsh and an
unvegetated tidal flat: Implications for the landform properties of the
intertidal floodplain, Geomorphology, 231, 40–52,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.11.020, 2015.
Wamsley, T. V., Cialone, M. A., Smith, J. M., Atkinson, J. H., and Rosati,
J. D.: The potential of wetlands in reducing storm surge, Ocean Eng.,
37, 59–68, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2009.07.018, 2010.
Willemsen, P. W. J. M., Horstman, E. M., Borsje, B. W., Friess, D. A., and
Dohmen-Janssen, C. M.: Sensitivity of the sediment trapping capacity of an
estuarine mangrove forest, Geomorphology, 273, 189–201,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.07.038, 2016.
Yoshikai, M., Nakamura, T., Suwa, R., Argamosa, R., Okamoto, T., Rollon, R.,
Basina, R., Primavera-Tirol, Y. H., Blanco, A. C., Adi, N. S., and Nadaoka,
K.: Scaling relations and substrate conditions controlling the complexity of
Rhizophora prop root system, Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 248,
107014, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2020.107014, 2021.
Zhang, K., Liu, H., Li, Y., Xu, H., Shen, J., Rhome, J., and Smith, T. J.:
The role of mangroves in attenuating storm surges, Estuar. Coast Shelf Sci.,
102–103, 11–23, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2012.02.021, 2012.
Zhang, S., Xu, Q., Wang, H., Kang, Y., and Li, X.: Automatic Waterline
Extraction and Topographic Mapping of Tidal Flats From SAR Images Based on
Deep Learning, Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL096007,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl096007, 2022.
Zingerle, P., Pail, R., Gruber, T., and Oikonomidou, X.: The combined global
gravity field model XGM2019e, J. Geodesy, 94, 66,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-020-01398-0, 2020.
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint