Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2769-2023
Research article
 | 
10 Aug 2023
Research article |  | 10 Aug 2023

Assessing the spatial spread–skill of ensemble flood maps with remote-sensing observations

Helen Hooker, Sarah L. Dance, David C. Mason, John Bevington, and Kay Shelton

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Cited articles

Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013. a
Alfonso, L., Mukolwe, M. M., and Di Baldassarre, G.: Probabilistic Flood Maps to support decision-making: Mapping the Value of Information, Water Resour. Res., 52, 1026–1043, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017378, 2016. a
Anderson, S. R., Csima, G., Moore, R. J., Mittermaier, M., and Cole, S. J.: Towards operational joint river flow and precipitation ensemble verification: considerations and strategies given limited ensemble records, J. Hydrol., 577, 123966, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.123966, 2019. a, b
Arnal, L., Anspoks, L., Manson, S., Neumann, J., Norton, T., Stephens, E., Wolfenden, L., and Cloke, H. L.: “Are we talking just a bit of water out of bank? Or is it Armageddon?” Front line perspectives on transitioning to probabilistic fluvial flood forecasts in England, Geosci. Commun., 3, 203–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-3-203-2020, 2020. a
ASDMA: Assam State Disaster Management Authority Flood Alert, https://asdma.assam.gov.in/information-services/assam-flood-report (last access: 10 November 2021), 2017. a
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Short summary
Ensemble forecasts of flood inundation produce maps indicating the probability of flooding. A new approach is presented to evaluate the spatial performance of an ensemble flood map forecast by comparison against remotely observed flooding extents. This is important for understanding forecast uncertainties and improving flood forecasting systems.
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