Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Apr 2023
Research article |
| 26 Apr 2023
| 26 Apr 2023
Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms
Heinz Jürgen Punge
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Kristopher M. Bedka
NASA Langley Research Center, Science Directorate, Climate Science Branch, Hampton, VA, USA
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Sarah D. Bang
NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (ST-11), Huntsville, AL, USA
Kyle F. Itterly
Science Systems and Applications Inc., Hampton, VA, USA
Related authors
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Amit Kumar Pandit, Jean-Paul Vernier, Thomas Duncan Fairlie, Kristopher M. Bedka, Melody A. Avery, Harish Gadhavi, Madineni Venkat Ratnam, Sanjeev Dwivedi, Kasimahanthi Amar Jyothi, Frank G. Wienhold, Holger Vömel, Hongyu Liu, Bo Zhang, Buduru Suneel Kumar, Tra Dinh, and Achuthan Jayaraman
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 14209–14238, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14209-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-14209-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the formation mechanism of a tropopause cirrus cloud layer observed at extremely cold temperatures over Hyderabad in India during the 2017 Asian summer monsoon using balloon-borne sensors. Ice crystals smaller than 50 µm were found in this optically thin cirrus cloud layer. Combined analysis of back trajectories, satellite, and model data revealed that the formation of this layer was influenced by waves and stratospheric hydration induced by typhoon Hato.
Markus Augenstein, Susanna Mohr, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2804, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2804, 2024
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
A grid-based analysis of lightning in Europe shows a reduction in thunderstorm activity in many regions. Moving away from a grid-based analysis, a spatio-temporal clustering algorithm was used. The results show a slight trend towards the occurrence of smaller, more separated convective clustered events, suggesting changes in the organization of convective systems. One reason for this could be the increased occurrence of the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the last decade.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Corey E. Clapp, Jessica B. Smith, Kristopher M. Bedka, and James G. Anderson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3279–3298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3279-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3279-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection in the Asian monsoon provides an important pathway for the transport of boundary layer and tropospheric air, and potentially pollution and chemically active species, into the stratosphere. We analyzed the distribution of the fastest and deepest convection with geostationary satellite detections for the months of May through October of 2017. We find significant differences in the geographic and monthly distributions of cross-tropopause convection across the Asian monsoon region.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Hazel Vernier, Neeraj Rastogi, Hongyu Liu, Amit Kumar Pandit, Kris Bedka, Anil Patel, Madineni Venkat Ratnam, Buduru Suneel Kumar, Bo Zhang, Harish Gadhavi, Frank Wienhold, Gwenael Berthet, and Jean-Paul Vernier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12675–12694, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12675-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12675-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The chemical composition of the stratospheric aerosols collected aboard high-altitude balloons above the summer Asian monsoon reveals the presence of nitrate/nitrite. Using numerical simulations and satellite observations, we found that pollution as well as lightning could explain some of our observations.
Kristopher M. Bedka, Amin R. Nehrir, Michael Kavaya, Rory Barton-Grimley, Mark Beaubien, Brian Carroll, James Collins, John Cooney, G. David Emmitt, Steven Greco, Susan Kooi, Tsengdar Lee, Zhaoyan Liu, Sharon Rodier, and Gail Skofronick-Jackson
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 4305–4334, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4305-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4305-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper demonstrates the Doppler Aerosol WiNd (DAWN) lidar and High Altitude Lidar Observatory (HALO) measurement capabilities across a range of atmospheric conditions, compares DAWN and HALO measurements with Aeolus satellite Doppler wind lidar to gain an initial perspective of Aeolus performance, and discusses how atmospheric dynamic processes can be resolved and better understood through simultaneous observations of wind, water vapour, and aerosol profile observations.
Elody Fluck, Michael Kunz, Peter Geissbuehler, and Stefan P. Ritz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 683–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-683-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Severe convective storms (SCSs) and the related hail events constitute major atmospheric hazards in parts of Europe. In our study, we identified the regions of France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg that were most affected by hail over a 10 year period (2005 to 2014). A cell-tracking algorithm was computed on remote-sensing data to enable the reconstruction of several thousand SCS tracks. The location of hail hotspots will help us understand hail formation and improve hail forecasting.
Benjamin R. Scarino, Kristopher Bedka, Rajendra Bhatt, Konstantin Khlopenkov, David R. Doelling, and William L. Smith Jr.
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 5491–5511, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-5491-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-5491-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper highlights a technique for facilitating anvil cloud detection based on visible observations that relies on comparative analysis with expected cloud reflectance for a given set of angles. A 1-year database of anvil-identified pixels, as determined from IR observations, from several geostationary satellites was used to construct a bidirectional reflectance distribution function model to quantify typical anvil reflectance across almost all expected viewing, solar, and azimuth angles.
Susanna Mohr, Jannik Wilhelm, Jan Wandel, Michael Kunz, Raphael Portmann, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Manuel Schmidberger, Julian F. Quinting, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 325–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated an exceptional thunderstorm episode in 2018, in which atmospheric blocking provided large-scale environmental conditions favouring convection. Furthermore, blocking was accompanied by a high cut-off frequency on its upstream side, which together with filaments of high PV provided the mesoscale setting for deep moist convection. The exceptional persistence of low stability combined with weak wind speed in the mid-troposphere over more than 3 weeks has never been observed before.
Michael Kunz, Jan Wandel, Elody Fluck, Sven Baumstark, Susanna Mohr, and Sebastian Schemm
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1867–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Severe convective storms are major loss drivers across Europe. We reconstructed several thousand storm tracks from radar reflectivity over a 10-year period for parts of Europe. The tracks were additionally combined with hail reports, reanalysis data, and front detections based on ERA-Interim (ECMWF Reanalysis). It is found that frontal hailstorms on average produce larger hailstones and have longer tracks and that wind shear is important not only for the hail diameter but also for track length.
Philip J. Ward, Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, Susanna F. Jenkins, Dalia Kirschbaum, Michael Kunz, Susanna Mohr, Sanne Muis, Graeme A. Riddell, Andreas Schäfer, Thomas Stanley, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards and identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales.
Constanze Wellmann, Andrew I. Barrett, Jill S. Johnson, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Vogel, Ken S. Carslaw, and Corinna Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2201–2219, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2201-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Severe hailstorms may cause damage to buildings and crops. Thus, the forecast of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models should be as reliable as possible.
Using statistical emulation, we identify those model input parameters describing environmental conditions and cloud microphysics which lead to large uncertainties in the prediction of deep convection. We find that the impact of the input parameters on the uncertainty depends on the considered output variable.
Florian Ehmele and Michael Kunz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1083–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1083-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1083-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The risk estimation of precipitation events with high recurrence periods is difficult due to the limited timescale with meteorological observations and an inhomogeneous distribution of rain gauges, especially in mountainous terrains. In this study a spatially high resolved analytical model, designed for stochastic simulations of flood-related precipitation, is developed and applied to an investigation area in Germany but is transferable to other areas. High conformity with observations is found.
Kai Schröter, Daniela Molinari, Michael Kunz, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 963–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-963-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-963-2018, 2018
Christopher R. Yost, Kristopher M. Bedka, Patrick Minnis, Louis Nguyen, J. Walter Strapp, Rabindra Palikonda, Konstantin Khlopenkov, Douglas Spangenberg, William L. Smith Jr., Alain Protat, and Julien Delanoe
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1615–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1615-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Accretion of cloud ice particles upon engine or instrument probe surfaces can cause engine malfunction or even power loss, and therefore it is important for aircraft to avoid flight through clouds that may have produced large quantities of ice particles. This study introduces a method by which potentially hazardous conditions can be detected using satellite imagery. It was found that potentially hazardous conditions were often located near or beneath very cold clouds and thunderstorm updrafts.
David Piper and Michael Kunz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1319–1336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1319-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1319-2017, 2017
Robert L. Herman, Eric A. Ray, Karen H. Rosenlof, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael J. Schwartz, William G. Read, Robert F. Troy, Keith Chin, Lance E. Christensen, Dejian Fu, Robert A. Stachnik, T. Paul Bui, and Jonathan M. Dean-Day
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6113–6124, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6113-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6113-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study reports new aircraft field observations of elevated water vapor greater than 10 ppmv in the overworld stratosphere over the summertime continental US. Back trajectories from the flight track intersect overshooting convective tops within the previous 1 to 7 days, suggesting that ice is convectively and irreversibly transported to the stratosphere in the most energetic overshooting convective events. Satellite measurements (Aura MLS) indicate that such events are uncommon (< 1 %).
Benjamin R. Scarino, Patrick Minnis, Thad Chee, Kristopher M. Bedka, Christopher R. Yost, and Rabindra Palikonda
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 351–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-351-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-351-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global coverage of remotely sensed skin temperature, along with cloud/surface radiation parameters, produced in near-real time and from historical satellite data, is beneficial for weather and climate purposes. One key drawback is the dependence on view angle. Therefore, this article serves to validate a global, satellite-based skin temperature product, while highlighting an empirically adjusted theoretical model of satellite LST angular anisotropy, and the benefits gained from its application.
David Piper, Michael Kunz, Florian Ehmele, Susanna Mohr, Bernhard Mühr, Andreas Kron, and James Daniell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2835–2850, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2835-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2835-2016, 2016
Y. Brugnara, R. Auchmann, S. Brönnimann, R. J. Allan, I. Auer, M. Barriendos, H. Bergström, J. Bhend, R. Brázdil, G. P. Compo, R. C. Cornes, F. Dominguez-Castro, A. F. V. van Engelen, J. Filipiak, J. Holopainen, S. Jourdain, M. Kunz, J. Luterbacher, M. Maugeri, L. Mercalli, A. Moberg, C. J. Mock, G. Pichard, L. Řezníčková, G. van der Schrier, V. Slonosky, Z. Ustrnul, M. A. Valente, A. Wypych, and X. Yin
Clim. Past, 11, 1027–1047, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A data set of instrumental pressure and temperature observations for the early instrumental period (before ca. 1850) is described. This is the result of a digitisation effort involving the period immediately after the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815, combined with the collection of already available sub-daily time series. The highest data availability is therefore for the years 1815 to 1817. An analysis of pressure variability and of case studies in Europe is performed for that period.
K. Schröter, M. Kunz, F. Elmer, B. Mühr, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 309–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme antecedent precipitation, increased initial hydraulic load in the river network and strong but not extraordinary event precipitation were key drivers for the flood in June 2013 in Germany. Our results are based on extreme value statistics and aggregated severity indices which we evaluated for a set of 74 historic large-scale floods. This flood database and the methodological framework enable the rapid assessment of future floods using precipitation and discharge observations.
T. D. Fairlie, J.-P. Vernier, M. Natarajan, and K. M. Bedka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7045–7057, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7045-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7045-2014, 2014
M. Kunz, B. Mühr, T. Kunz-Plapp, J. E. Daniell, B. Khazai, F. Wenzel, M. Vannieuwenhuyse, T. Comes, F. Elmer, K. Schröter, J. Fohringer, T. Münzberg, C. Lucas, and J. Zschau
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2579–2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2579-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2579-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
The Record-Breaking Precipitation Event of December 2022 in Portugal
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Application of machine learning to forecast agricultural drought impacts for large scale sub-seasonal drought monitoring in Brazil
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data
Compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact-drivers in the context of food security
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Rain-on-snow responses to warmer Pyrenees: a sensitivity analysis using a physically based snow hydrological model
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-130, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Here we investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river leading to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on day 12.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1673, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1742, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1742, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydro-hazard for New Zealand, and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographic setting.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Joseph William Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought impacts on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters in Brazil (CEMADEN). This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-903, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-903, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a high interannual variability and a decrease over the 1950–2022 period. We further show that the regional atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound events occurence, but do not strongly contributes to the observed decrease.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Gesualdo Chiquito, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The production of food is susceptible to several climate hazards such as droughts, excessive rainfall, and heat waves. In this paper, we present a methodology that uses artificial intelligence for assessing the impact of climate risks on food production. Our methodology helps us to automatically select the most relevant indices and critical thresholds of these indices that when surpassed can increase the danger of crop yield loss.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan I. López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
Cited articles
Adler, R. F., Markus, M. J., and Fenn, D. D.: Detection of Severe Midwest
Thunderstorms Using Geosynchronous Satellite Data, Mon. Weather Rev., 113,
769–781, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<0769:DOSMTU>2.0.CO;2, 1985. a
Admirat, P., Goyer, G. G., Wojtiw, L., Carte, E. A., Roos, D., and Lozowki, E. P.: A comparative study of hailstorms in Switzerland, Canada and South Africa, J. Climate, 5, 35–51, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370050104, 1985. a, b
Allen, J. T., Tippett, M. K., and Sobel, A. H.: An empirical model relating
U.S. monthly hail occurrence to large-scale meteorological environment, J.
Adv. Model. Earth Syt., 7, 226–243, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014MS000397, 2015. a, b
Allen, J. T., Giammanco, I. M., Kumjian, M. R., Punge, H. J., Zhang, Q.,
Groenemeijer, P., Kunz, M., and Ortega, K.: Undertanding Hail in the Earth
System, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000665, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000665, 2020. a, b, c
Ayob, N.: Hail nowcasting over the South African Highveld, MS thesis, North-West University, South Africa, https://repository.nwu.ac.za/handle/10394/33836 (last access: 21 April 2023), 2019. a
Bang, S. D. and Cecil, D. J.: Constructing a Multifrequency Passive Microwave
Hail Retrieval and Climatology in the GPM Domain, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 58, 1889–1904, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0042.1, 2019. a, b, c, d
Bang, S. D. and Cecil, D. J.: Testing Passive Microwave-Based Hail Retrievals
Using GPM DPR Ku-Band Radar, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 60, 255–271, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-20-0129.1, 2021.
a
Bedka, K., Brunner, J., Dworak, R., Feltz, W., Otkin, J., and Greenwald, T.:
Objective Satellite-Based Detection of Overshooting Tops Using Infrared
Window Channel Brightness Temperature Gradients, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 49, 181–202, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAMC2286.1, 2010. a, b, c, d
Bedka, K., Allen, J., Punge, H., and Kunz, M.: A Long-Term Overshooting
Convective Cloud Top Detection Database Over Australia Derived From MTSAT
Japanese Advanced Meteorological Imager Observations, J. Appl. Meteorol.
Clim., 57, 937–951, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0056.1, 2017. a
Bedka, K., Murillo, E., Homeyer, C. R., Scarino, B., and Mersiovsky, H.: The
Above Anvil Cirrus Plume: An Important Severe Weather Indicator in Visible
and Infrared Satellite Imagery, Weather Forecast., 33, 1159–1181, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0040.1, 2018a. a
Bedka, K. M., Allen, J. T., Punge, H. J., Kunz, M., and Simanovic, D.: A
long-term overshooting convective cloud-top detection database over Australia
derived from MTSAT Japanese advanced meteorological imager observations, J.
Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 57, 937–951, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0056.1, 2018b. a, b, c, d, e
Bedka, K. M.: Overshooting cloud top detections using MSG SEVIRI Infrared
brightness temperatures and their relationship to severe weather over Europe,
Atmos. Res., 99, 175–189, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.10.001, 2011. a, b
Bedka, K. M. and Khlopenkov, K.: A probabilistic multispectral pattern
recognition method for detection of overshooting cloud tops using passive
satellite imager observations, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 55, 1983–2005, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0249.1, 2016. a, b
Berthet, C., Dessens, J., and Sanchez, J.: Regional and yearly variations of
hail frequency and intensity in France, Atmos. Res., 100, 391–400, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.10.008, 2011. a
Carte, A. E.: Features of Transvaal hailstorms, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 290–296, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49709239214, 1966. a
Cecil, D. J.: Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures as Proxies for
Hailstorms, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 48, 1281, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAMC2125.1, 2009. a
Changnon Jr., S. A.: The scales of hail, J. Appl. Meteorol., 16, 626–648, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1977)016<0626:TSOH>2.0.CO;2, 1977. a
Cintineo, J. L., Smith, T. M., Lakshmanan, V., Brooks, H. E., and Ortega, K. L.: An Objective High-Resolution Hail Climatology of the Contiguous United States, Weather Forecast., 27, 1235–1248, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00151.1, 2012. a
Cooney, J. W., Bedka, K. M., Bowman, K. P., Khlopenkov, K. V., and Itterly, K.: Comparing Tropopause-Penetrating Convection Identifications Derived from
NEXRAD and GOES over the Contiguous United States, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
126, e2020JD034319, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034319, 2021. a, b, c
Copernicus: Climate Data Store, https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/#!/search?text=ERA5&type=dataset, last access: 21 April 2023. a
de Coning, E., Gijben, M., Maseko, B., and van Hemert, L.: Using satellite
data to identify and track intense thunderstorms in South and southern Africa, S. Afr. J. Sci., 111, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.17159/sajs.2015/20140402, 2015. a
Dessens, J., Berthet, C., and Sanchez, J. L.: Change in hailstone size
distributions with an increase in the melting level height, Atmos. Res., 158–159, 245–253, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.07.004, 2015. a
Dotzek, N., Groenemeijer, P., Feuerstein, B., and Holzer, A. M.: Overview of
ESSL's severe convective storms research using the European Severe Weather
Database ESWD, Atmos. Res., 93, 575–586, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.10.020, 2009. a, b, c
Dowdy, A. J., Soderholm, J., Brook, J., Brown, A., and McGowan, H.: Quantifying hail and lightning risk factors using long-term observations around Australia, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2020JD033101-T, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033101, 2020. a
Dyson, L. L., Pienaar, N., Smit, A., and Kijko, A.: An ERA-Interim HAILCAST
hail climatology for southern Africa, Int. J. Climatol., 41, 262–277, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6619, 2020. a, b, c
Eccel, E., Cau, P., Riemann-Campe, K., and Biasioli, F.: Quantitative hail
monitoring in an alpine area: 35-year climatology and links with atmospheric
variables, Int. J. Climatol., 32, 503–517, 2012. a
ESWD: European Severe Weather Database, https://eswd.eu/, last access: 21 April 2023. a
EUMETSAT: EUMETSAT Data Centre, https://www.eumetsat.int/eumetsat-data-centre, last access: 21 April 2023. a
Farr, T. G., Rosen, P. A., Caro, E., Crippen, R., Duren, R., Hensley, S.,
Kobrick, M., Paller, M., Rodriguez, E., Roth, L., Seal, D., Shaffer, S., Shimada, J., Umland, J., Werner, M., Oskin, M., Burbank, D., and Alsdorf, D.: The shuttle radar topography mission, Rev. Geophys., 45, RG2004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005RG000183, 2007. a
Feng, Z., Leung, L. R., Liu, N., Wang, J., Houze Jr., R. A., Li, J., Hardin,
J. C., Chen, D., and Guo, J.: A Global High-Resolution Mesoscale Convective
System Database Using Satellite-Derived Cloud Tops, Surface Precipitation,
and Tracking, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD034202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034202, 2021. a
Fluck, E., Kunz, M., Geissbuehler, P., and Ritz, S. P.: Radar-based assessment of hail frequency in Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 683–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-683-2021, 2021. a, b, c
Garstang, M., Kelbe, B. E., Emmitt, G. D., and London, W. B.: Generation of
Convective Storms over the Escarpment of Northeastern South Africa, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 429–443, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<0429:GOCSOT>2.0.CO;2, 1987. a
Giaiotti, D., Nordio, S., and Stel, F.: The climatology of hail in the plain of Friuli Venezia Giulia, Atmos. Res., 67–68, 247–259, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(03)00084-X, 2003. a
Grieser, J. and Hill, M.: How to Express Hail Intensity-Modeling the Hailstone Size Distribution, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 58, 2329–2345,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0334.1, 2019. a, b, c
Heikenfeld, M., Marinescu, P. J., Christensen, M., Watson-Parris, D., Senf, F., van den Heever, S. C., and Stier, P.: tobac 1.2: towards a flexible framework for tracking and analysis of clouds in diverse datasets, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4551–4570, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4551-2019, 2019. a
Held, G.: Hail frequency in the Pretoria–Witwatersrand area during 1962 to 1972, Pure Appl. Geophys., 112, 765–776, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00876951, 1974. a, b
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D.,
Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer,
A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P.,
Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global
reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Junghänel, T., Brendel, C., Winterrath, T., and Walter, A.: Towards a
radar-and observation-based hail climatology for Germany, Meteorol. Z., 25,
435–445, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2016/0734, 2016. a
Kunz, M., Blahak, U., Handwerker, J., Schmidberger, M., Punge, H. J., Mohr, S., Fluck, E., and Bedka, K. M.: The severe hailstorm in southwest Germany on
28 July 2013: Characteristics, impacts and meteorological conditions, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 231–250, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3197, 2018. a, b
Kunz, M., Wandel, J., Fluck, E., Baumstark, S., Mohr, S., and Schemm, S.: Ambient conditions prevailing during hail events in central Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1867–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, 2020. a
Leigh, R. and Kuhnel, I.: Hailstorm loss modelling and risk assessment in the
Sydney region, Australia, Nat. Hazards, 24, 171–185, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011855801345, 2001. a
Lin, Y. and Kumjian, M. R.: Influences of CAPE on hail production in simulated supercell storms, J. Atmos. Sci., 79, 179–204, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-21-0054.1, 2022. a
Loftus, A., Cotton, W., and Carrió, G.: A triple-moment hail bulk
microphysics scheme. Part I: Description and initial evaluation, Atmos. Res., 149, 35–57, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.05.013, 2014. a
Mardia, K. V. and Zemroch, P. J.: Algorithm AS 86: The Von Mises Distribution
Function, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. C., 24, 268–272, https://doi.org/10.2307/2346578, 1975. a
Marion, G. R., Trapp, R. J., and Nesbitt, S. W.: Using Overshooting Top Area to Discriminate Potential for Large, Intense Tornadoes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 12520–12526, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084099, 2019. a, b
Markowski, P. and Richardson, Y.: Mesoscale meteorology in midlatitudes, Wiley, Blackwell, ISBN 9780470742136, https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470682104, 2010. a
Melcón, P., Merino, A., Sánchez, J. L., López, L., and Hermida, L.: Satellite remote sensing of hailstorms in France, Atmos. Res., 182,
221–231, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.08.001, 2016. a
Mohr, S., Wandel, J., Lenggenhager, S., and Martius, O.: Relationship between atmospheric blocking and warm-season thunderstorms over western and central Europe, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 145, 3040–3056, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3603, 2019. a
Mohr, S., Wilhelm, J., Wandel, J., Kunz, M., Portmann, R., Punge, H. J.,
Schmidberger, M., Quinting, J. F., and Grams, C. M.: The role of large-scale
dynamics in an exceptional sequence ofsevere thunderstorms in Europe
May–June 2018, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 325–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, 2020. a
Mroz, K., Battaglia, A., Lang, T. J., Cecil, D. J., Tanelli, S., and Tridon,
F.: Hail-Detection Algorithm for the GPM Core Observatory Satellite Sensors, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 56, 1939–1957, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0368.1, 2017. a
Munich RE: Severe convective storms and hail – Icy cricket balls from above,
http://www.munichre.com/australia/australia-natural-hazards/australia-storm/hailstorm/index.html,
last access: 25 November 2015. a
Murillo, E. M. and Homeyer, C. R.: Severe hail fall and hailstorm detection
using remote sensing observations, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 58, 947–970, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0247.1, 2019. a, b
Murillo, E. M., Homeyer, C. R., and Allen, J. T.: A 23-Year Severe Hail
Climatology Using GridRad MESH Observations, Mon. Weather Rev., 149, 945–958, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0178.1, 2021. a
Ni, X., Liu, C., Cecil, D. J., and Zhang, Q.: On the Detection of Hail Using
Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometers and Precipitation Radar, J. Appl.
Meteorol. Clim., 56, 2693–2709, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0065.1, 2017. a
Nisi, L., Hering, A., Germann, U., and Martius, O.: A 15-year hail streak
climatology for the Alpine region, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144,
1429–1449, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3286, 2018. a, b, c
NOAA: Comprehensive Large Array-Data Stewardship System (CLASS), https://www.avl.class.noaa.gov/saa/products/welcome;jsessionid=BDF491314248B818A20B53DFF3EC97B5, last access: 21 April 2023. a
Olivier, J.: Hail in the Transvaal – some geographical and climatological
aspects, PhD thesis, Rand Afrikaans University, https://ujcontent.uj.ac.za/esploro/outputs/graduate/Hail-in-the-Transvaal--some/9912217207691#file-0 (last access: 21 April 2023), 1990. a
Palencia, C., Castro, A., Giaiotti, D., Stel, F., Vinet, F., and Fraile, R.:
Hailpad-based research: A bibliometric review, Atmos. Res., 93, 664–670,
2009. a
Perry, A.: Severe hailstorm at Grahamstown in relation to convective weather
hazards in South Africa, Weather, 50, 211–214, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1995.tb06110.x, 1995. a
Petty, G. W. and Bennartz, R.: Field-of-view characteristics and resolution matching for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI), Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 745–758, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-745-2017, 2017. a
Powell, C. L. and Burger, R. P.: The severe Gauteng hailstorms of 28 November 2013, in: Proc. 30th Ann. Conf. South African, Soc. Atmos. Sci.,
1–2 October 2014, Potchefstroom, South Africa, 54–57, http://hdl.handle.net/10394/16144 (last access: 21 April 2023), 2014. a
Prein, A. F. and Holland, G. J.: Global estimates of damaging hail hazard, Weather Clim. Ext., 22, 10–23, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.10.004, 2018. a, b, c
Punge, H. and Kunz, M.: Hail observations and hailstorm characteristics in
Europe: A review, Atmos. Res., 176, 159–184, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.02.012, 2016. a, b, c
Punge, H. J., Bedka, K. M., Kunz, M., and Reinbold, A.: Hail frequency
estimation across Europe based on a combination of overshooting top detections and the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis, Atmos. Res., 198, 34–43,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.07.025, 2017. a, b
Púčik, T., Castellano, C., Groenemeijer, P., Kühne, T., Rädler, A. T., Antonescu, B., and Faust, E.: Large Hail Incidence and Its Economic and Societal Impacts across Europe, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 3901–3916, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0204.1, 2019. a, b
Puskeiler, M., Kunz, M., and Schmidberger, M.: Hail statistics for Germany
derived from single-polarization radar data, Atmos. Res., 178–179, 459–470, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.04.014, 2016. a, b
Rädler, A. T., Groenemeijer, P., Faust, E., and Sausen, R.: Detecting
severe weather trends using an Additive Regressive Convective Hazard Model (AR-CHaMo), J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 57, 569–587,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0132.1, 2018. a, b
Reges, H. W., Doesken, N., Turner, J., Newman, N., Bergantino, A., and
Schwalbe, Z.: CoCoRaHS: The evolution and accomplishments of a volunteer
rain gauge network, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 1831–1846,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00213.1, 2016. a
Sánchez, J., Gil-Robles, B., Dessens, J., Martin, E., Lopez, L., Marcos,
J., Berthet, C., Fernández, J., and García-Ortega, E.: Characterization of hailstone size spectra in hailpad networks in France,
Spain, and Argentina, Atmos. Res., 93, 641–654, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.09.033, 2009. a
Sandmæl, T. N., Homeyer, C. R., Bedka, K. M., Apke, J. M., Mecikalski, J. R., and Khlopenkov, K.: Evaluating the Ability of Remote Sensing Observations to Identify Significantly Severe and Potentially Tornadic Storms, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 58, 2569–2590, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0241.1, 2019. a
Scarino, B. R., Bedka, K., Bhatt, R., Khlopenkov, K., Doelling, D. R., and Smith Jr., W. L.: A kernel-driven BRDF model to inform satellite-derived visible anvil cloud detection, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 5491–5511, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-5491-2020, 2020. a
Schmetz, J., Pili, P., Tjemkes, S., Just, D., Kerkmann, J., Rota, S., and
Ratier, A.: An introduction to Meteosat second generation (MSG), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 977–992, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<0977:AITMSG>2.3.CO;2, 2002. a
Schmidberger, M.: Hagelgefährdung und Hagelrisiko in Deutschland basierend
auf einer Kombination von Radardaten und Versicherungsdaten, PhD thesis,
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, KIT – Karlsruhe Institute of
Technology, 263 pp., https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000086012 (last access: 21 April 2023), 2018.
a, b, c, d
Seifert, A. and Beheng, K. D.: A two-moment cloud microphysics parameterization for mixed-phase clouds. Part 1: Model description, Meteorol.
Atmos. Phys., 92, 45–66, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0112-4, 2006. a
Sioutas, M., Meaden, T., and Webb, J. D.: Hail frequency, distribution and
intensity in Northern Greece, Atmos. Res., 93, 526–533, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.09.023, 2009. a
Smith, H., Wingfied, M., and Coutinho, T.: The role of latent Sphaeropsis
sapinea infections in post-hail associated die-back of Pinus patula, Forest
Ecol. Manage., 164, 177–184, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-1127(01)00610-7, 2002. a
Stout, G., Blackmer, R., and Wilk, K.: Hail studies in Illinois relating to
cloud physics, Physics of Precipitation, Geophys. Monogr., 5, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.1029/GM005p0369, 1960. a
Taszarek, M., Allen, J., Púčik, T., Groenemeijer, P., Czernecki, B.,
Kolendowicz, L., Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., and Schulz, W.: A climatology
of thunderstorms across Europe from a synthesis of multiple data sources, J. Climate, 32, 1813–1837, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0372.1, 2019. a
Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Púčik, T., Hoogewind, K. A., and Brooks, H. E.: Severe convective storms across Europe and the United States. Part 2: ERA5 environments associated with lightning, large hail, severe wind and
tornadoes, J. Climate, 33, 10263–10286, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0346.1, 2020. a, b
University of Oklahoma: 3-D Gridded NEXRAD WSR-88D Radar Data, http://gridrad.org/data.html, last access: 21 April 2023. a
Wellmann, C., Barrett, A. I., Johnson, J. S., Kunz, M., Vogel, B., Carslaw,
K. S., and Hoose, C.: Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and
microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail,
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2201–2219, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2201-2020, 2020. a
Wilhelm, J., Mohr, S., Punge, H. J., Mühr, B., Schmidberger, M., Daniell,
J. E., Bedka, K. M., and Kunz, M.: Severe thunderstorms with large hail across Germany in June 2019, Weather, 76, 228–237, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3886, 2021. a
Wingfield, M. J. and Swart, W. J.: Integrated management of forest tree
diseases in South Africa, Forest Ecol. Manage., 65, 11–16,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-1127(94)90253-4, 1994. a
Zinner, T., Forster, C., de Coning, E., and Betz, H.-D.: Validation of the Meteosat storm detection and nowcasting system Cb-TRAM with lightning network data – Europe and South Africa, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 1567–1583, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-1567-2013, 2013. a
Short summary
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance claims data. It is found that hail is mainly concentrated in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event characteristics, such as multiple events per day or track dimensions, provides an event catalogue for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, as required by insurance companies.
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint