Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1549-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Apr 2023
Research article |
| 26 Apr 2023
| 26 Apr 2023
Characteristics of hail hazard in South Africa based on satellite detection of convective storms
Heinz Jürgen Punge
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Kristopher M. Bedka
NASA Langley Research Center, Science Directorate, Climate Science Branch, Hampton, VA, USA
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Sarah D. Bang
NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (ST-11), Huntsville, AL, USA
Kyle F. Itterly
Science Systems and Applications Inc., Hampton, VA, USA
Related authors
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2639, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2639, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite cloud top detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports, is presented. Hail likelihood peaks in central summer at 15 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to a previous estimate. Separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large hail occurrence is found.
Amit Kumar Pandit, Jean-Paul Vernier, Thomas Duncan Fairlie, Kristopher M. Bedka, Melody A. Avery, Harish Gadhavi, Madineni Venkat Ratnam, Sanjeev Dwivedi, Kasimahanthi Amar Jyothi, Frank G. Wienhold, Holger Vömel, Hongyu Liu, Bo Zhang, Buduru Suneel Kumar, Tra Dinh, and Achuthan Jayaraman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2236, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2236, 2023
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the formation mechanism of a tropopause cirrus cloud layer observed at extremely cold temperatures over Hyderabad in India during the 2017 Asian summer monsoon using balloon-borne sensors. Ice crystals smaller than 50 microns were found in this optically thin cirrus cloud layer. Combined analysis of back-trajectories, satellite, and model data revealed that the formation of this layer was influenced by gravity waves and stratospheric hydration induced by typhoon Hato.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2639, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2639, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite cloud top detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports, is presented. Hail likelihood peaks in central summer at 15 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to a previous estimate. Separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large hail occurrence is found.
Corey E. Clapp, Jessica B. Smith, Kristopher M. Bedka, and James G. Anderson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 3279–3298, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3279-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-3279-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Convection in the Asian monsoon provides an important pathway for the transport of boundary layer and tropospheric air, and potentially pollution and chemically active species, into the stratosphere. We analyzed the distribution of the fastest and deepest convection with geostationary satellite detections for the months of May through October of 2017. We find significant differences in the geographic and monthly distributions of cross-tropopause convection across the Asian monsoon region.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Hazel Vernier, Neeraj Rastogi, Hongyu Liu, Amit Kumar Pandit, Kris Bedka, Anil Patel, Madineni Venkat Ratnam, Buduru Suneel Kumar, Bo Zhang, Harish Gadhavi, Frank Wienhold, Gwenael Berthet, and Jean-Paul Vernier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12675–12694, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12675-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12675-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The chemical composition of the stratospheric aerosols collected aboard high-altitude balloons above the summer Asian monsoon reveals the presence of nitrate/nitrite. Using numerical simulations and satellite observations, we found that pollution as well as lightning could explain some of our observations.
Kristopher M. Bedka, Amin R. Nehrir, Michael Kavaya, Rory Barton-Grimley, Mark Beaubien, Brian Carroll, James Collins, John Cooney, G. David Emmitt, Steven Greco, Susan Kooi, Tsengdar Lee, Zhaoyan Liu, Sharon Rodier, and Gail Skofronick-Jackson
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 4305–4334, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4305-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4305-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper demonstrates the Doppler Aerosol WiNd (DAWN) lidar and High Altitude Lidar Observatory (HALO) measurement capabilities across a range of atmospheric conditions, compares DAWN and HALO measurements with Aeolus satellite Doppler wind lidar to gain an initial perspective of Aeolus performance, and discusses how atmospheric dynamic processes can be resolved and better understood through simultaneous observations of wind, water vapour, and aerosol profile observations.
Elody Fluck, Michael Kunz, Peter Geissbuehler, and Stefan P. Ritz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 683–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-683-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Severe convective storms (SCSs) and the related hail events constitute major atmospheric hazards in parts of Europe. In our study, we identified the regions of France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg that were most affected by hail over a 10 year period (2005 to 2014). A cell-tracking algorithm was computed on remote-sensing data to enable the reconstruction of several thousand SCS tracks. The location of hail hotspots will help us understand hail formation and improve hail forecasting.
Benjamin R. Scarino, Kristopher Bedka, Rajendra Bhatt, Konstantin Khlopenkov, David R. Doelling, and William L. Smith Jr.
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 5491–5511, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-5491-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-5491-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper highlights a technique for facilitating anvil cloud detection based on visible observations that relies on comparative analysis with expected cloud reflectance for a given set of angles. A 1-year database of anvil-identified pixels, as determined from IR observations, from several geostationary satellites was used to construct a bidirectional reflectance distribution function model to quantify typical anvil reflectance across almost all expected viewing, solar, and azimuth angles.
Susanna Mohr, Jannik Wilhelm, Jan Wandel, Michael Kunz, Raphael Portmann, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Manuel Schmidberger, Julian F. Quinting, and Christian M. Grams
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 325–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated an exceptional thunderstorm episode in 2018, in which atmospheric blocking provided large-scale environmental conditions favouring convection. Furthermore, blocking was accompanied by a high cut-off frequency on its upstream side, which together with filaments of high PV provided the mesoscale setting for deep moist convection. The exceptional persistence of low stability combined with weak wind speed in the mid-troposphere over more than 3 weeks has never been observed before.
Michael Kunz, Jan Wandel, Elody Fluck, Sven Baumstark, Susanna Mohr, and Sebastian Schemm
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1867–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Severe convective storms are major loss drivers across Europe. We reconstructed several thousand storm tracks from radar reflectivity over a 10-year period for parts of Europe. The tracks were additionally combined with hail reports, reanalysis data, and front detections based on ERA-Interim (ECMWF Reanalysis). It is found that frontal hailstorms on average produce larger hailstones and have longer tracks and that wind shear is important not only for the hail diameter but also for track length.
Philip J. Ward, Veit Blauhut, Nadia Bloemendaal, James E. Daniell, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Melanie J. Duncan, Robert Emberson, Susanna F. Jenkins, Dalia Kirschbaum, Michael Kunz, Susanna Mohr, Sanne Muis, Graeme A. Riddell, Andreas Schäfer, Thomas Stanley, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, and Hessel C. Winsemius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1069–1096, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1069-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We review the scientific literature on natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. In doing so, we examine similarities and differences between the approaches taken across the different hazards and identify potential ways in which different hazard communities can learn from each other. Finally, we discuss opportunities for learning from methods and approaches being developed and applied to assess natural hazard risks at more continental or regional scales.
Constanze Wellmann, Andrew I. Barrett, Jill S. Johnson, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Vogel, Ken S. Carslaw, and Corinna Hoose
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2201–2219, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2201-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2201-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Severe hailstorms may cause damage to buildings and crops. Thus, the forecast of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models should be as reliable as possible.
Using statistical emulation, we identify those model input parameters describing environmental conditions and cloud microphysics which lead to large uncertainties in the prediction of deep convection. We find that the impact of the input parameters on the uncertainty depends on the considered output variable.
Florian Ehmele and Michael Kunz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1083–1102, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1083-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1083-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The risk estimation of precipitation events with high recurrence periods is difficult due to the limited timescale with meteorological observations and an inhomogeneous distribution of rain gauges, especially in mountainous terrains. In this study a spatially high resolved analytical model, designed for stochastic simulations of flood-related precipitation, is developed and applied to an investigation area in Germany but is transferable to other areas. High conformity with observations is found.
Kai Schröter, Daniela Molinari, Michael Kunz, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 963–968, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-963-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-963-2018, 2018
Christopher R. Yost, Kristopher M. Bedka, Patrick Minnis, Louis Nguyen, J. Walter Strapp, Rabindra Palikonda, Konstantin Khlopenkov, Douglas Spangenberg, William L. Smith Jr., Alain Protat, and Julien Delanoe
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 1615–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1615-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-1615-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Accretion of cloud ice particles upon engine or instrument probe surfaces can cause engine malfunction or even power loss, and therefore it is important for aircraft to avoid flight through clouds that may have produced large quantities of ice particles. This study introduces a method by which potentially hazardous conditions can be detected using satellite imagery. It was found that potentially hazardous conditions were often located near or beneath very cold clouds and thunderstorm updrafts.
David Piper and Michael Kunz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1319–1336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1319-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1319-2017, 2017
Robert L. Herman, Eric A. Ray, Karen H. Rosenlof, Kristopher M. Bedka, Michael J. Schwartz, William G. Read, Robert F. Troy, Keith Chin, Lance E. Christensen, Dejian Fu, Robert A. Stachnik, T. Paul Bui, and Jonathan M. Dean-Day
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 6113–6124, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6113-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-6113-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study reports new aircraft field observations of elevated water vapor greater than 10 ppmv in the overworld stratosphere over the summertime continental US. Back trajectories from the flight track intersect overshooting convective tops within the previous 1 to 7 days, suggesting that ice is convectively and irreversibly transported to the stratosphere in the most energetic overshooting convective events. Satellite measurements (Aura MLS) indicate that such events are uncommon (< 1 %).
Benjamin R. Scarino, Patrick Minnis, Thad Chee, Kristopher M. Bedka, Christopher R. Yost, and Rabindra Palikonda
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 351–371, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-351-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-351-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global coverage of remotely sensed skin temperature, along with cloud/surface radiation parameters, produced in near-real time and from historical satellite data, is beneficial for weather and climate purposes. One key drawback is the dependence on view angle. Therefore, this article serves to validate a global, satellite-based skin temperature product, while highlighting an empirically adjusted theoretical model of satellite LST angular anisotropy, and the benefits gained from its application.
David Piper, Michael Kunz, Florian Ehmele, Susanna Mohr, Bernhard Mühr, Andreas Kron, and James Daniell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2835–2850, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2835-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2835-2016, 2016
Y. Brugnara, R. Auchmann, S. Brönnimann, R. J. Allan, I. Auer, M. Barriendos, H. Bergström, J. Bhend, R. Brázdil, G. P. Compo, R. C. Cornes, F. Dominguez-Castro, A. F. V. van Engelen, J. Filipiak, J. Holopainen, S. Jourdain, M. Kunz, J. Luterbacher, M. Maugeri, L. Mercalli, A. Moberg, C. J. Mock, G. Pichard, L. Řezníčková, G. van der Schrier, V. Slonosky, Z. Ustrnul, M. A. Valente, A. Wypych, and X. Yin
Clim. Past, 11, 1027–1047, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1027-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A data set of instrumental pressure and temperature observations for the early instrumental period (before ca. 1850) is described. This is the result of a digitisation effort involving the period immediately after the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815, combined with the collection of already available sub-daily time series. The highest data availability is therefore for the years 1815 to 1817. An analysis of pressure variability and of case studies in Europe is performed for that period.
K. Schröter, M. Kunz, F. Elmer, B. Mühr, and B. Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 309–327, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-309-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme antecedent precipitation, increased initial hydraulic load in the river network and strong but not extraordinary event precipitation were key drivers for the flood in June 2013 in Germany. Our results are based on extreme value statistics and aggregated severity indices which we evaluated for a set of 74 historic large-scale floods. This flood database and the methodological framework enable the rapid assessment of future floods using precipitation and discharge observations.
T. D. Fairlie, J.-P. Vernier, M. Natarajan, and K. M. Bedka
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7045–7057, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7045-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7045-2014, 2014
M. Kunz, B. Mühr, T. Kunz-Plapp, J. E. Daniell, B. Khazai, F. Wenzel, M. Vannieuwenhuyse, T. Comes, F. Elmer, K. Schröter, J. Fohringer, T. Münzberg, C. Lucas, and J. Zschau
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2579–2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2579-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2579-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
The impact of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) zenith total delay data assimilation on the short-term precipitable water vapor and precipitation forecast over Italy using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Assimilation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) pseudo-observations in AROME-France – proof of concept
A phytoplankton bloom caused by the super cyclonic storm Amphan in the central Bay of Bengal
Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018
Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes
Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts
The 2018 west-central European drought projected in a warmer climate: how much drier can it get?
Forecasting Large Hail and Lightning using Additive Logistic Regression Models and the ECMWF Reforecasts
The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective
Effect of extreme El Niño events on the precipitation of Ecuador
Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks
Development and evaluation of a method to identify potential release areas of snow avalanches based on watershed delineation
Heat wave monitoring over West African cities: uncertainties, characterization and recent trends
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornado associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Variations of extreme precipitation events with sub-daily data: a case study in the Ganjiang River basin
Human influence on growing-period frosts like in early April 2021 in central France
Improving the predictability of the Qendresa Medicane by the assimilation of conventional and atmospheric motion vector observations. Storm-scale analysis and short-range forecast
Investigation of an extreme rainfall event during 8–12 December 2018 over central Vietnam – Part 1: Analysis and cloud-resolving simulation
Increased spatial extent and likelihood of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China, 1961–2014
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the NAO, and potential future risks
Validating a tailored drought risk assessment methodology: drought risk assessment in local Papua New Guinea regions
Seasonal fire danger forecasts for supporting fire prevention management in an eastern Mediterranean environment: the case of Attica, Greece
Uncovering the veil of night light changes in times of catastrophe
Time of emergence of compound events: contribution of univariate and dependence properties
Skillful decadal prediction of German Bight storm activity
Comparison of two nationwide lightning location systems and characteristics of could-to-ground lightning in China
Droughts in Germany: performance of regional climate models in reproducing observed characteristics
Analysis of the relationship between yield in cereals and remotely sensed fAPAR in the framework of monitoring drought impacts in Europe
Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area
Using high-resolution global climate models from the PRIMAVERA project to create a European winter windstorm event set
Real-time urban rainstorm and waterlogging disaster detection by Weibo users
Sensitivity of simulating Typhoon Haiyan (2013) using WRF: the role of cumulus convection, surface flux parameterizations, spectral nudging, and initial and boundary conditions
A satellite lightning observation operator for storm-scale numerical weather prediction
Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: a collective need for unifying drought risk management
Idealized simulations of Mei-yu rainfall in Taiwan under uniform southwesterly flow using a cloud-resolving model
Hotspots for warm and dry summers in Romania
Development of a forecast-oriented kilometre-resolution ocean–atmosphere coupled system for western Europe and sensitivity study for a severe weather situation
Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspective
Hydrometeorological analysis of the 12 and 13 September 2019 widespread flash flooding in eastern Spain
Monitoring the daily evolution and extent of snow drought
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Haojie Huang, Linfei Bai, Hao Shen, Xiaoqi Ding, Rui Wang, and Haibin Lü
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2807–2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The super cyclonic storm Amphan occurred in the central Bay of Bengal in May 2020, and a phytoplankton bloom occurred. Its dynamic mechanism was first researched. An inertial oscillation with a 2 d period appeared and lasted for approximately 2 weeks. With the weakened thermocline and thinner barrier layer thickness, nitrate and Chl a were uplifted to the upper ocean by upwelling. With the high photosynthetically available radiation, a phytoplankton bloom occurred.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Martin Morlot, Simone Russo, Luc Feyen, and Giuseppe Formetta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2593–2606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2593-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed recent trends in heat and cold wave (HW and CW) risk in a European alpine region, defined by a time and spatially explicit framework to quantify hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure. A decrease in vulnerability is observed except in the larger cities. HW risk increased in 40 % of the region, especially in highly populated areas. Stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability result in reduced CW risk.
Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans De Moel, and Anne F. Van Loon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We characterize meteorological (P), soil moisture (SM) and hydrological (Q) droughts and the propagation from one to the other for 318 catchments in the Horn of Africa. We find that propagation from P to SM is influenced by soil properties and vegetation, while propagation from P to Q is from catchment-scale hydrogeological properties (i.e. geology, slope). We provide precipitation accumulation periods at the subbasin level that can be used as a proxy in drought forecasting in dryland regions.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr Bońkowski
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1359, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1359, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Poland is going to construct some important structures. So, knowledge about strong and extreme winds in our country is important for enginners who will design these structures. The authors’ study of maximum wind speeds in Poland is based on a set of annual maximum gust wind speeds measured at 39 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2010 (plotted on extremal probability paper), tornado reports collected from 1899 to 2019, and estimation of wind speeds of derechos and recent tornadoes in Poland.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Emma E. Aalbers, Erik van Meijgaard, Geert Lenderink, Hylke de Vries, and Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1921–1946, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1921-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To examine the impact of global warming on west-central European droughts, we have constructed future analogues of recent summers. Extreme droughts like 2018 further intensify, and the local temperature rise is much larger than in most summers. Years that went hardly noticed in the present-day climate may emerge as very dry and hot in a warmer world. The changes can be directly linked to real-world events, which makes the results very tangible and hence useful for climate change communication.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-40, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-40, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improving forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Dirk R. Thielen, Paolo Ramoni-Perazzi, Ezequiel Zamora-Ledezma, Mary L. Puche, Marco Marquez, José I. Quintero, Wilmer Rojas, Alberto Quintero, Guillermo Bianchi, Irma A. Soto-Werschitz, and Marco Aurelio Arizapana-Almonacid
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1507–1527, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme El Niño events are unique in their strong impacts and differ from other El Niños. In Ecuador, extreme eastern Pacific El Niño and coastal El Niño generate dangerous precipitation anomalies, particularly in areas with a high natural seasonality index, steep terrain, and a close proximity to the coast. These findings can help develop effective strategies to reduce vulnerability to potential increases in extreme El Niño frequency and intensity.
Ed Hawkins, Philip Brohan, Samantha N. Burgess, Stephen Burt, Gilbert P. Compo, Suzanne L. Gray, Ivan D. Haigh, Hans Hersbach, Kiki Kuijjer, Oscar Martínez-Alvarado, Chesley McColl, Andrew P. Schurer, Laura Slivinski, and Joanne Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1465–1482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1383–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a method that identifies individual potential release areas (PRAs) of snow avalanches based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Results may contribute to better understanding local avalanche hazard. The work may also foster the development of more efficient PRA detection methods based on a rigorous evaluation scheme.
Cedric Gacial Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, Mathieu Vrac, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1313–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1313-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heat waves (HWs) are climatic hazards that affect the planet. We assess here uncertainties encountered in the process of HW detection and analyse their recent trends in West Africa using reanalysis data. Three types of uncertainty have been investigated. We identified 6 years with higher frequency of HWs, possibly due to higher sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic. We noticed an increase in HW characteristics during the last decade, which could be a consequence of climate change.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-39, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as wind, extreme rainfall and hail. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and that cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storms and improved forecasting.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-16, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistics of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Guangxu Liu, Aicun Xiang, Zhiwei Wan, Yang Zhou, Jie Wu, Yuandong Wang, and Sichen Lin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1139–1155, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1139-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on investigating the thresholds of extreme precipitation using sub-daily records in the Ganjiang River basin using gamma distribution, the L-moment method and the Mann–Kendall (M–K) test. The main findings are (1) run 3 (36 h) precipitation events would be key events for flood monitoring. (2）The intensity and the occasional probability of extreme precipitation will increase in spring in the future in stations like Yifeng, Zhangshu and Ningdu.
Robert Vautard, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Rémy Bonnet, Sihan Li, Yoann Robin, Sarah Kew, Sjoukje Philip, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, Brigitte Dubuisson, Nicolas Viovy, Markus Reichstein, Friederike Otto, and Iñaki Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1045-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A deep frost occurred in early April 2021, inducing severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees in France. We found that such extreme frosts occurring after the start of the growing season such as those of April 2021 are currently about 2°C colder [0.5 °C to 3.3 °C] in observations than in preindustrial climate. This observed intensification of growing-period frosts is attributable, at least in part, to human-caused climate change, making the 2021 event 50 % more likely [10 %–110 %].
Diego S. Carrió
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 847–869, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate prediction of medicanes still remains a key challenge in the scientific community because of their poor predictability. In this study we assimilate different observations to improve the trajectory and intensity forecasts of the Qendresa Medicane. Results show the importance of using data assimilation techniques to improve the estimate of the atmospheric flow in the upper-level atmosphere, which has been shown to be key to improve the prediction of Qendresa.
Chung-Chieh Wang and Duc Van Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 771–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-771-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A record-breaking rainfall event over central Vietnam is investigated. Key factors include the combined effect of northeasterly wind, easterly wind blowing to central Vietnam from the western North Pacific (WNP), southeasterly wind, local topography, and high sea surface temperature (SST) over WNP and the South China Sea (SCS). The cloud-resolving storm simulator (CReSS) is applied to simulate this event. The results show that the model mostly captured the quantitative rainfall of this event.
Yi Yang, Douglas Maraun, Albert Ossó, and Jianping Tang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 693–709, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-693-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study quantifies the spatiotemporal variation and characteristics of compound long-duration dry and hot events in China over the 1961–2014 period. The results show that over the past few decades, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of these compound events across most parts of China, which is dominated by rising temperatures. We detect a strong increase in the spatially contiguous areas experiencing concurrent dry and hot conditions.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-22, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-22, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. Largest gusts are found across NW Europe and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Isabella Aitkenhead, Yuriy Kuleshov, Jessica Bhardwaj, Zhi-Weng Chua, Chayn Sun, and Suelynn Choy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 553–586, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-553-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-553-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A case study assessing drought risk in Papua New Guinea (PNG) provinces for retrospective years (2014–2020) was conducted to demonstrate the development and validate the application of a tailored and semi-dynamic drought risk assessment methodology. Hazard, vulnerability, and exposure indicators appropriate for monitoring drought in PNG provinces were selected. The risk assessment accurately indicated a strong drought event in 2015–2016 and a moderate event in 2019.
Anna Karali, Konstantinos V. Varotsos, Christos Giannakopoulos, Panagiotis P. Nastos, and Maria Hatzaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 429–445, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-429-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As climate change leads to more frequent and severe fires, forecasting fire danger before fire season begins can support fire management. This study aims to provide high-resolution probabilistic seasonal fire danger forecasts in a Mediterranean environment and assess their ability to capture years with increased fire activity. Results indicate that forecasts are skillful in predicting above-normal fire danger conditions and can be exploited by regional authorities in fire prevention management.
Vincent Schippers and Wouter Botzen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 179–204, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-179-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Researchers studying economic impacts of natural disasters increasingly use night light as a proxy for local economic activity, when socioeconomic data are unavailable. But often it is unclear what changes in light intensity represent in the context of disasters. We study this in detail for Hurricane Katrina and find a strong correlation with building damage and changes in population and employment. We conclude that night light data are useful to study local impacts of natural disasters.
Bastien François and Mathieu Vrac
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 21–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-21-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events (CEs) result from a combination of several climate phenomena. In this study, we propose a new methodology to assess the time of emergence of CE probabilities and to quantify the contribution of marginal and dependence properties of climate phenomena to the overall CE probability changes. By applying our methodology to two case studies, we show the importance of considering changes in both marginal and dependence properties for future risk assessments related to CEs.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Patrick Pieper, Ralf Weisse, and Johanna Baehr
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3993–4009, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3993-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of storm activity are desirable for coastal management. We investigate how well a climate model can predict storm activity in the German Bight 1–10 years in advance. We let the model predict the past, compare these predictions to observations, and analyze whether the model is doing better than simple statistical predictions. We find that the model generally shows good skill for extreme periods, but the prediction timeframes with good skill depend on the type of prediction.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-255, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-255, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
It is the first comparison and assessment of two Chinese nationwide lightning location systems. The spatial and temporal distribution of long-term lightning activity in China is analyzed, indicating that low latitude, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surface are favorable factors for lightning occurrence. What is interesting is that high cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3875–3895, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3875-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on drought reproduction in Germany between 1980–2009 is investigated here. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Gridded observational data sets serve as reference. Regarding the reproduction of drought characteristics, all models perform on a similar level, while for trends, only the modified model produces reliable outputs.
Carmelo Cammalleri, Niall McCormick, and Andrea Toreti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3737–3750, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3737-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluated the ability of vegetation indices derived from satellite data to capture annual yield variations across Europe. The strength of the relationship varies throughout the year, with March–October representing the optimal period in most cases. Spatial differences were also observed, with the best results obtained in the Mediterranean regions.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Julia F. Lockwood, Galina S. Guentchev, Alexander Alabaster, Simon J. Brown, Erika J. Palin, Malcolm J. Roberts, and Hazel E. Thornton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3585–3606, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3585-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We describe how we developed a set of 1300 years' worth of European winter windstorm footprints, using a multi-model ensemble of high-resolution global climate models, for use by the insurance industry to analyse windstorm risk. The large amount of data greatly reduces uncertainty on risk estimates compared to using shorter observational data sets and also allows the relationship between windstorm risk and predictable large-scale climate indices to be quantified.
Haoran Zhu, Priscilla Obeng Oforiwaa, and Guofeng Su
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3349–3359, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3349-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3349-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We promote a new method to detect waterlogging disasters. Residents are directly affected by waterlogging, and we can collect their comments on social networks. Compared to official-authentication and personal-certification users, the microblogs posted by general users can better show the intensity and timing of waterlogging. Through text and sentiment features, we can separate microblogs with waterlogging information from other ones and mark high-risk regions on maps.
Rafaela Jane Delfino, Gerry Bagtasa, Kevin Hodges, and Pier Luigi Vidale
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3285–3307, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3285-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We showed the effects of altering the choice of cumulus schemes, surface flux options, and spectral nudging with a high level of sensitivity to cumulus schemes in simulating an intense typhoon. We highlight the advantage of using an ensemble of cumulus parameterizations to take into account the uncertainty in simulating typhoons such as Haiyan in 2013. This study is useful in addressing the growing need to plan and prepare for as well as reduce the impacts of intense typhoons in the Philippines.
Pauline Combarnous, Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, Éric Defer, and Maud Martet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2943–2962, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study is to prepare the assimilation of satellite lightning data in the French regional numerical weather prediction system. The assimilation of lightning data requires an observation operator, based on empirical relationships between the lightning observations and a set of proxies derived from the numerical weather prediction system variables. We fit machine learning regression models to our data to yield those relationships and to investigate the best proxy for lightning.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Chung-Chieh Wang, Pi-Yu Chuang, Shi-Ting Chen, Dong-In Lee, and Kazuhisa Tsuboki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1795–1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, cloud-resolving simulations are performed under idealized and uniform southwesterly flow direction and speed to investigate the rainfall regimes in the Mei-yu season and the role of complex mesoscale topography on rainfall without the influence of unwanted disturbances, including a low-Froude number regime where the thermodynamic effects and island circulation dominate, a high-Froude number regime where topographic rainfall in a flow-over scenario prevails, and a mixed regime.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Patrick Scholz, and Monica Ionita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1347–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we have assessed the variability and trends of hot and dry summers in Romania. The length, spatial extent, and frequency of heat waves in Romania have increased significantly over the last 70 years, while no significant changes have been observed in the drought conditions. The increased frequency of heat waves, especially after the 1990s, could be partially explained by an increase in the geopotential height over the eastern part of Europe.
Joris Pianezze, Jonathan Beuvier, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Guillaume Samson, Ghislain Faure, and Gilles Garric
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1301–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Most numerical weather and oceanic prediction systems do not consider ocean–atmosphere feedback during forecast, and this can lead to significant forecast errors, notably in cases of severe situations. A new high-resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere system is presented in this paper. This forecast-oriented system, based on current regional operational systems and evaluated using satellite and in situ observations, shows that the coupling improves both atmospheric and oceanic forecasts.
Katherine L. Towey, James F. Booth, Alejandra Rodriguez Enriquez, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1287–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding due to storm surge from tropical cyclones is a significant hazard. The influence of tropical cyclone characteristics, including its proximity, intensity, path angle, and speed, on the magnitude of storm surge is examined along the eastern United States. No individual characteristic was found to be strongly related to how much surge occurred at a site, though there is an increased likelihood of high surge occurring when tropical cyclones are both strong and close to a location.
Arnau Amengual
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1159–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
On 12 and 13 September 2019, a long-lasting heavy precipitation episode resulted in widespread flash flooding over eastern Spain. Well-organized and quasi-stationary convective structures impacted a vast area with rainfall amounts over 200 mm. The very dry initial soil moisture conditions resulted in a dampened hydrological response: until runoff thresholds were exceeded, infiltration-excess generation did not start. This threshold-based behaviour is explored through simple scaling theory.
Benjamin J. Hatchett, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel J. McEvoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 869–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-869-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-869-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snow droughts, or below-average snowpack, can result from either dry conditions and/or rainfall instead of snowfall. Monitoring snow drought through time and across space is important to evaluate when snow drought onset occurred, its duration, spatial extent, and severity as well as what conditions created it or led to its termination. We present visualization techniques, including a web-based snow-drought-tracking tool, to evaluate snow droughts and assess their impacts in the western US.
Cited articles
Adler, R. F., Markus, M. J., and Fenn, D. D.: Detection of Severe Midwest
Thunderstorms Using Geosynchronous Satellite Data, Mon. Weather Rev., 113,
769–781, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<0769:DOSMTU>2.0.CO;2, 1985. a
Admirat, P., Goyer, G. G., Wojtiw, L., Carte, E. A., Roos, D., and Lozowki, E. P.: A comparative study of hailstorms in Switzerland, Canada and South Africa, J. Climate, 5, 35–51, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370050104, 1985. a, b
Allen, J. T., Tippett, M. K., and Sobel, A. H.: An empirical model relating
U.S. monthly hail occurrence to large-scale meteorological environment, J.
Adv. Model. Earth Syt., 7, 226–243, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014MS000397, 2015. a, b
Allen, J. T., Giammanco, I. M., Kumjian, M. R., Punge, H. J., Zhang, Q.,
Groenemeijer, P., Kunz, M., and Ortega, K.: Undertanding Hail in the Earth
System, Rev. Geophys., 58, e2019RG000665, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000665, 2020. a, b, c
Ayob, N.: Hail nowcasting over the South African Highveld, MS thesis, North-West University, South Africa, https://repository.nwu.ac.za/handle/10394/33836 (last access: 21 April 2023), 2019. a
Bang, S. D. and Cecil, D. J.: Constructing a Multifrequency Passive Microwave
Hail Retrieval and Climatology in the GPM Domain, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 58, 1889–1904, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0042.1, 2019. a, b, c, d
Bang, S. D. and Cecil, D. J.: Testing Passive Microwave-Based Hail Retrievals
Using GPM DPR Ku-Band Radar, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 60, 255–271, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-20-0129.1, 2021.
a
Bedka, K., Brunner, J., Dworak, R., Feltz, W., Otkin, J., and Greenwald, T.:
Objective Satellite-Based Detection of Overshooting Tops Using Infrared
Window Channel Brightness Temperature Gradients, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 49, 181–202, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAMC2286.1, 2010. a, b, c, d
Bedka, K., Allen, J., Punge, H., and Kunz, M.: A Long-Term Overshooting
Convective Cloud Top Detection Database Over Australia Derived From MTSAT
Japanese Advanced Meteorological Imager Observations, J. Appl. Meteorol.
Clim., 57, 937–951, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0056.1, 2017. a
Bedka, K., Murillo, E., Homeyer, C. R., Scarino, B., and Mersiovsky, H.: The
Above Anvil Cirrus Plume: An Important Severe Weather Indicator in Visible
and Infrared Satellite Imagery, Weather Forecast., 33, 1159–1181, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0040.1, 2018a. a
Bedka, K. M., Allen, J. T., Punge, H. J., Kunz, M., and Simanovic, D.: A
long-term overshooting convective cloud-top detection database over Australia
derived from MTSAT Japanese advanced meteorological imager observations, J.
Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 57, 937–951, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0056.1, 2018b. a, b, c, d, e
Bedka, K. M.: Overshooting cloud top detections using MSG SEVIRI Infrared
brightness temperatures and their relationship to severe weather over Europe,
Atmos. Res., 99, 175–189, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.10.001, 2011. a, b
Bedka, K. M. and Khlopenkov, K.: A probabilistic multispectral pattern
recognition method for detection of overshooting cloud tops using passive
satellite imager observations, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 55, 1983–2005, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0249.1, 2016. a, b
Berthet, C., Dessens, J., and Sanchez, J.: Regional and yearly variations of
hail frequency and intensity in France, Atmos. Res., 100, 391–400, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.10.008, 2011. a
Carte, A. E.: Features of Transvaal hailstorms, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 290–296, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49709239214, 1966. a
Cecil, D. J.: Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures as Proxies for
Hailstorms, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 48, 1281, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAMC2125.1, 2009. a
Changnon Jr., S. A.: The scales of hail, J. Appl. Meteorol., 16, 626–648, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1977)016<0626:TSOH>2.0.CO;2, 1977. a
Cintineo, J. L., Smith, T. M., Lakshmanan, V., Brooks, H. E., and Ortega, K. L.: An Objective High-Resolution Hail Climatology of the Contiguous United States, Weather Forecast., 27, 1235–1248, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00151.1, 2012. a
Cooney, J. W., Bedka, K. M., Bowman, K. P., Khlopenkov, K. V., and Itterly, K.: Comparing Tropopause-Penetrating Convection Identifications Derived from
NEXRAD and GOES over the Contiguous United States, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos.,
126, e2020JD034319, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034319, 2021. a, b, c
Copernicus: Climate Data Store, https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/#!/search?text=ERA5&type=dataset, last access: 21 April 2023. a
de Coning, E., Gijben, M., Maseko, B., and van Hemert, L.: Using satellite
data to identify and track intense thunderstorms in South and southern Africa, S. Afr. J. Sci., 111, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.17159/sajs.2015/20140402, 2015. a
Dessens, J., Berthet, C., and Sanchez, J. L.: Change in hailstone size
distributions with an increase in the melting level height, Atmos. Res., 158–159, 245–253, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.07.004, 2015. a
Dotzek, N., Groenemeijer, P., Feuerstein, B., and Holzer, A. M.: Overview of
ESSL's severe convective storms research using the European Severe Weather
Database ESWD, Atmos. Res., 93, 575–586, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.10.020, 2009. a, b, c
Dowdy, A. J., Soderholm, J., Brook, J., Brown, A., and McGowan, H.: Quantifying hail and lightning risk factors using long-term observations around Australia, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2020JD033101-T, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033101, 2020. a
Dyson, L. L., Pienaar, N., Smit, A., and Kijko, A.: An ERA-Interim HAILCAST
hail climatology for southern Africa, Int. J. Climatol., 41, 262–277, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6619, 2020. a, b, c
Eccel, E., Cau, P., Riemann-Campe, K., and Biasioli, F.: Quantitative hail
monitoring in an alpine area: 35-year climatology and links with atmospheric
variables, Int. J. Climatol., 32, 503–517, 2012. a
ESWD: European Severe Weather Database, https://eswd.eu/, last access: 21 April 2023. a
EUMETSAT: EUMETSAT Data Centre, https://www.eumetsat.int/eumetsat-data-centre, last access: 21 April 2023. a
Farr, T. G., Rosen, P. A., Caro, E., Crippen, R., Duren, R., Hensley, S.,
Kobrick, M., Paller, M., Rodriguez, E., Roth, L., Seal, D., Shaffer, S., Shimada, J., Umland, J., Werner, M., Oskin, M., Burbank, D., and Alsdorf, D.: The shuttle radar topography mission, Rev. Geophys., 45, RG2004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005RG000183, 2007. a
Feng, Z., Leung, L. R., Liu, N., Wang, J., Houze Jr., R. A., Li, J., Hardin,
J. C., Chen, D., and Guo, J.: A Global High-Resolution Mesoscale Convective
System Database Using Satellite-Derived Cloud Tops, Surface Precipitation,
and Tracking, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2020JD034202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034202, 2021. a
Fluck, E., Kunz, M., Geissbuehler, P., and Ritz, S. P.: Radar-based assessment of hail frequency in Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 683–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-683-2021, 2021. a, b, c
Garstang, M., Kelbe, B. E., Emmitt, G. D., and London, W. B.: Generation of
Convective Storms over the Escarpment of Northeastern South Africa, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 429–443, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<0429:GOCSOT>2.0.CO;2, 1987. a
Giaiotti, D., Nordio, S., and Stel, F.: The climatology of hail in the plain of Friuli Venezia Giulia, Atmos. Res., 67–68, 247–259, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-8095(03)00084-X, 2003. a
Grieser, J. and Hill, M.: How to Express Hail Intensity-Modeling the Hailstone Size Distribution, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 58, 2329–2345,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0334.1, 2019. a, b, c
Heikenfeld, M., Marinescu, P. J., Christensen, M., Watson-Parris, D., Senf, F., van den Heever, S. C., and Stier, P.: tobac 1.2: towards a flexible framework for tracking and analysis of clouds in diverse datasets, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4551–4570, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4551-2019, 2019. a
Held, G.: Hail frequency in the Pretoria–Witwatersrand area during 1962 to 1972, Pure Appl. Geophys., 112, 765–776, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00876951, 1974. a, b
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D.,
Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer,
A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P.,
Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global
reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Junghänel, T., Brendel, C., Winterrath, T., and Walter, A.: Towards a
radar-and observation-based hail climatology for Germany, Meteorol. Z., 25,
435–445, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2016/0734, 2016. a
Kunz, M., Blahak, U., Handwerker, J., Schmidberger, M., Punge, H. J., Mohr, S., Fluck, E., and Bedka, K. M.: The severe hailstorm in southwest Germany on
28 July 2013: Characteristics, impacts and meteorological conditions, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144, 231–250, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3197, 2018. a, b
Kunz, M., Wandel, J., Fluck, E., Baumstark, S., Mohr, S., and Schemm, S.: Ambient conditions prevailing during hail events in central Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1867–1887, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1867-2020, 2020. a
Leigh, R. and Kuhnel, I.: Hailstorm loss modelling and risk assessment in the
Sydney region, Australia, Nat. Hazards, 24, 171–185, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1011855801345, 2001. a
Lin, Y. and Kumjian, M. R.: Influences of CAPE on hail production in simulated supercell storms, J. Atmos. Sci., 79, 179–204, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-21-0054.1, 2022. a
Loftus, A., Cotton, W., and Carrió, G.: A triple-moment hail bulk
microphysics scheme. Part I: Description and initial evaluation, Atmos. Res., 149, 35–57, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.05.013, 2014. a
Mardia, K. V. and Zemroch, P. J.: Algorithm AS 86: The Von Mises Distribution
Function, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. C., 24, 268–272, https://doi.org/10.2307/2346578, 1975. a
Marion, G. R., Trapp, R. J., and Nesbitt, S. W.: Using Overshooting Top Area to Discriminate Potential for Large, Intense Tornadoes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 12520–12526, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084099, 2019. a, b
Markowski, P. and Richardson, Y.: Mesoscale meteorology in midlatitudes, Wiley, Blackwell, ISBN 9780470742136, https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470682104, 2010. a
Melcón, P., Merino, A., Sánchez, J. L., López, L., and Hermida, L.: Satellite remote sensing of hailstorms in France, Atmos. Res., 182,
221–231, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.08.001, 2016. a
Mohr, S., Wandel, J., Lenggenhager, S., and Martius, O.: Relationship between atmospheric blocking and warm-season thunderstorms over western and central Europe, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 145, 3040–3056, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3603, 2019. a
Mohr, S., Wilhelm, J., Wandel, J., Kunz, M., Portmann, R., Punge, H. J.,
Schmidberger, M., Quinting, J. F., and Grams, C. M.: The role of large-scale
dynamics in an exceptional sequence ofsevere thunderstorms in Europe
May–June 2018, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 325–348, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-325-2020, 2020. a
Mroz, K., Battaglia, A., Lang, T. J., Cecil, D. J., Tanelli, S., and Tridon,
F.: Hail-Detection Algorithm for the GPM Core Observatory Satellite Sensors, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 56, 1939–1957, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0368.1, 2017. a
Munich RE: Severe convective storms and hail – Icy cricket balls from above,
http://www.munichre.com/australia/australia-natural-hazards/australia-storm/hailstorm/index.html,
last access: 25 November 2015. a
Murillo, E. M. and Homeyer, C. R.: Severe hail fall and hailstorm detection
using remote sensing observations, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 58, 947–970, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0247.1, 2019. a, b
Murillo, E. M., Homeyer, C. R., and Allen, J. T.: A 23-Year Severe Hail
Climatology Using GridRad MESH Observations, Mon. Weather Rev., 149, 945–958, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0178.1, 2021. a
Ni, X., Liu, C., Cecil, D. J., and Zhang, Q.: On the Detection of Hail Using
Satellite Passive Microwave Radiometers and Precipitation Radar, J. Appl.
Meteorol. Clim., 56, 2693–2709, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0065.1, 2017. a
Nisi, L., Hering, A., Germann, U., and Martius, O.: A 15-year hail streak
climatology for the Alpine region, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 144,
1429–1449, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3286, 2018. a, b, c
NOAA: Comprehensive Large Array-Data Stewardship System (CLASS), https://www.avl.class.noaa.gov/saa/products/welcome;jsessionid=BDF491314248B818A20B53DFF3EC97B5, last access: 21 April 2023. a
Olivier, J.: Hail in the Transvaal – some geographical and climatological
aspects, PhD thesis, Rand Afrikaans University, https://ujcontent.uj.ac.za/esploro/outputs/graduate/Hail-in-the-Transvaal--some/9912217207691#file-0 (last access: 21 April 2023), 1990. a
Palencia, C., Castro, A., Giaiotti, D., Stel, F., Vinet, F., and Fraile, R.:
Hailpad-based research: A bibliometric review, Atmos. Res., 93, 664–670,
2009. a
Perry, A.: Severe hailstorm at Grahamstown in relation to convective weather
hazards in South Africa, Weather, 50, 211–214, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1995.tb06110.x, 1995. a
Petty, G. W. and Bennartz, R.: Field-of-view characteristics and resolution matching for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI), Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 745–758, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-745-2017, 2017. a
Powell, C. L. and Burger, R. P.: The severe Gauteng hailstorms of 28 November 2013, in: Proc. 30th Ann. Conf. South African, Soc. Atmos. Sci.,
1–2 October 2014, Potchefstroom, South Africa, 54–57, http://hdl.handle.net/10394/16144 (last access: 21 April 2023), 2014. a
Prein, A. F. and Holland, G. J.: Global estimates of damaging hail hazard, Weather Clim. Ext., 22, 10–23, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.10.004, 2018. a, b, c
Punge, H. and Kunz, M.: Hail observations and hailstorm characteristics in
Europe: A review, Atmos. Res., 176, 159–184, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.02.012, 2016. a, b, c
Punge, H. J., Bedka, K. M., Kunz, M., and Reinbold, A.: Hail frequency
estimation across Europe based on a combination of overshooting top detections and the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis, Atmos. Res., 198, 34–43,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2017.07.025, 2017. a, b
Púčik, T., Castellano, C., Groenemeijer, P., Kühne, T., Rädler, A. T., Antonescu, B., and Faust, E.: Large Hail Incidence and Its Economic and Societal Impacts across Europe, Mon. Weather Rev., 147, 3901–3916, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0204.1, 2019. a, b
Puskeiler, M., Kunz, M., and Schmidberger, M.: Hail statistics for Germany
derived from single-polarization radar data, Atmos. Res., 178–179, 459–470, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.04.014, 2016. a, b
Rädler, A. T., Groenemeijer, P., Faust, E., and Sausen, R.: Detecting
severe weather trends using an Additive Regressive Convective Hazard Model (AR-CHaMo), J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 57, 569–587,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0132.1, 2018. a, b
Reges, H. W., Doesken, N., Turner, J., Newman, N., Bergantino, A., and
Schwalbe, Z.: CoCoRaHS: The evolution and accomplishments of a volunteer
rain gauge network, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 1831–1846,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00213.1, 2016. a
Sánchez, J., Gil-Robles, B., Dessens, J., Martin, E., Lopez, L., Marcos,
J., Berthet, C., Fernández, J., and García-Ortega, E.: Characterization of hailstone size spectra in hailpad networks in France,
Spain, and Argentina, Atmos. Res., 93, 641–654, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.09.033, 2009. a
Sandmæl, T. N., Homeyer, C. R., Bedka, K. M., Apke, J. M., Mecikalski, J. R., and Khlopenkov, K.: Evaluating the Ability of Remote Sensing Observations to Identify Significantly Severe and Potentially Tornadic Storms, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 58, 2569–2590, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0241.1, 2019. a
Scarino, B. R., Bedka, K., Bhatt, R., Khlopenkov, K., Doelling, D. R., and Smith Jr., W. L.: A kernel-driven BRDF model to inform satellite-derived visible anvil cloud detection, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 5491–5511, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-5491-2020, 2020. a
Schmetz, J., Pili, P., Tjemkes, S., Just, D., Kerkmann, J., Rota, S., and
Ratier, A.: An introduction to Meteosat second generation (MSG), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 977–992, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2002)083<0977:AITMSG>2.3.CO;2, 2002. a
Schmidberger, M.: Hagelgefährdung und Hagelrisiko in Deutschland basierend
auf einer Kombination von Radardaten und Versicherungsdaten, PhD thesis,
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, KIT – Karlsruhe Institute of
Technology, 263 pp., https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000086012 (last access: 21 April 2023), 2018.
a, b, c, d
Seifert, A. and Beheng, K. D.: A two-moment cloud microphysics parameterization for mixed-phase clouds. Part 1: Model description, Meteorol.
Atmos. Phys., 92, 45–66, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0112-4, 2006. a
Sioutas, M., Meaden, T., and Webb, J. D.: Hail frequency, distribution and
intensity in Northern Greece, Atmos. Res., 93, 526–533, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2008.09.023, 2009. a
Smith, H., Wingfied, M., and Coutinho, T.: The role of latent Sphaeropsis
sapinea infections in post-hail associated die-back of Pinus patula, Forest
Ecol. Manage., 164, 177–184, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-1127(01)00610-7, 2002. a
Stout, G., Blackmer, R., and Wilk, K.: Hail studies in Illinois relating to
cloud physics, Physics of Precipitation, Geophys. Monogr., 5, 369–381, https://doi.org/10.1029/GM005p0369, 1960. a
Taszarek, M., Allen, J., Púčik, T., Groenemeijer, P., Czernecki, B.,
Kolendowicz, L., Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., and Schulz, W.: A climatology
of thunderstorms across Europe from a synthesis of multiple data sources, J. Climate, 32, 1813–1837, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0372.1, 2019. a
Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Púčik, T., Hoogewind, K. A., and Brooks, H. E.: Severe convective storms across Europe and the United States. Part 2: ERA5 environments associated with lightning, large hail, severe wind and
tornadoes, J. Climate, 33, 10263–10286, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0346.1, 2020. a, b
University of Oklahoma: 3-D Gridded NEXRAD WSR-88D Radar Data, http://gridrad.org/data.html, last access: 21 April 2023. a
Wellmann, C., Barrett, A. I., Johnson, J. S., Kunz, M., Vogel, B., Carslaw,
K. S., and Hoose, C.: Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and
microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail,
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 2201–2219, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2201-2020, 2020. a
Wilhelm, J., Mohr, S., Punge, H. J., Mühr, B., Schmidberger, M., Daniell,
J. E., Bedka, K. M., and Kunz, M.: Severe thunderstorms with large hail across Germany in June 2019, Weather, 76, 228–237, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3886, 2021. a
Wingfield, M. J. and Swart, W. J.: Integrated management of forest tree
diseases in South Africa, Forest Ecol. Manage., 65, 11–16,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-1127(94)90253-4, 1994. a
Zinner, T., Forster, C., de Coning, E., and Betz, H.-D.: Validation of the Meteosat storm detection and nowcasting system Cb-TRAM with lightning network data – Europe and South Africa, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 1567–1583, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-1567-2013, 2013. a
Short summary
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of satellite observations, reanalysis, and insurance claims data. It is found that hail is mainly concentrated in the southeast. Multivariate stochastic modeling of event characteristics, such as multiple events per day or track dimensions, provides an event catalogue for 25 000 years. This can be used to estimate hail risk for return periods of 200 years, as required by insurance companies.
We have estimated the probability of hail events in South Africa using a combination of...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint