Articles | Volume 22, issue 2
11 Feb 2022
Research article | 11 Feb 2022
A comparative flood damage and risk impact assessment of land use changes
Karen Gabriels et al.
No articles found.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217,Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Hossein Tabari, Santiago Mendoza Paz, Daan Buekenhout, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3493–3517,
Bertold Mariën, Inge Dox, Hans J. De Boeck, Patrick Willems, Sebastien Leys, Dimitri Papadimitriou, and Matteo Campioli
Biogeosciences, 18, 3309–3330,Short summary
The drivers of the onset of autumn leaf senescence for several deciduous tree species are still unclear. Therefore, we addressed (i) if drought impacts the timing of autumn leaf senescence and (ii) if the relationship between drought and autumn leaf senescence depends on the tree species. Our study suggests that the timing of autumn leaf senescence is conservative across years and species and even independent of drought stress.
Laurène J. E. Bouaziz, Fabrizio Fenicia, Guillaume Thirel, Tanja de Boer-Euser, Joost Buitink, Claudia C. Brauer, Jan De Niel, Benjamin J. Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Benjamin Grelier, Lieke A. Melsen, Sotirios Moustakas, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Eric Sprokkereef, Jasper Stam, Albrecht H. Weerts, Patrick Willems, Hubert H. G. Savenije, and Markus Hrachowitz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1069–1095,Short summary
We quantify the differences in internal states and fluxes of 12 process-based models with similar streamflow performance and assess their plausibility using remotely sensed estimates of evaporation, snow cover, soil moisture and total storage anomalies. The dissimilarities in internal process representation imply that these models cannot all simultaneously be close to reality. Therefore, we invite modelers to evaluate their models using multiple variables and to rely on multi-model studies.
Benjamin Campforts, Veerle Vanacker, Frédéric Herman, Matthias Vanmaercke, Wolfgang Schwanghart, Gustavo E. Tenorio, Patrick Willems, and Gerard Govers
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 447–470,Short summary
In this contribution, we explore the spatial determinants of bedrock river incision in the tropical Andes. The model results illustrate the problem of confounding between climatic and lithological variables, such as rock strength. Incorporating rock strength explicitly into river incision models strongly improves the explanatory power of all tested models and enables us to clarify the role of rainfall variability in controlling river incision rates.
Els Van Uytven, Jan De Niel, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2671–2686,Short summary
In recent years many methods have been developed for the statistical downscaling of climate model outputs. Each statistical downscaling method has strengths and limitations, but those are rarely evaluated. This paper illustrates an approach to evaluating the skill of statistical downscaling methods for the specific purpose of impact analysis in hydrology.
Syed M. Touhidul Mustafa, M. Moudud Hasan, Ajoy Kumar Saha, Rahena Parvin Rannu, Els Van Uytven, Patrick Willems, and Marijke Huysmans
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2279–2303,Short summary
This study evaluates the effect of conceptual hydro(geo)logical model (CHM) structure, climate change and groundwater abstraction on future groundwater-level prediction uncertainty. If the current groundwater abstraction trend continues, groundwater level is predicted to decline quickly. Groundwater abstraction in NW Bangladesh should decrease by 60 % to ensure sustainable use. Abstraction scenarios are the dominant uncertainty source, followed by CHM uncertainty and climate model uncertainty.
Jan De Niel and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 871–882,
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Proc. IAHS, 380, 3–8,
Nevil Quinn, Günter Blöschl, András Bárdossy, Attilio Castellarin, Martyn Clark, Christophe Cudennec, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, Upmanu Lall, Lubomir Lichner, Juraj Parajka, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Graham Sander, Hubert Savenije, Keith Smettem, Harry Vereecken, Alberto Viglione, Patrick Willems, Andy Wood, Ross Woods, Chong-Yu Xu, and Erwin Zehe
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5735–5739,
Edouard Goudenhoofdt, Laurent Delobbe, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5385–5399,Short summary
Knowing the characteristics of extreme precipitation is useful for flood management applications like sewer system design. The potential of a 12-year high-quality weather radar precipitation dataset is investigated by comparison with rain gauges. Despite known limitations, a good agreement is found between the radar and the rain gauges. Using the radar data allow us to reduce the uncertainty of the extreme value analysis, especially for short duration extremes related to thunderstorms.
Auguste Gires, Ioulia Tchiguirinskaia, Daniel Schertzer, Susana Ochoa-Rodriguez, Patrick Willems, Abdellah Ichiba, Li-Pen Wang, Rui Pina, Johan Van Assel, Guendalina Bruni, Damian Murla Tuyls, and Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2361–2375,Short summary
Data from 10 urban or peri-urban catchments located in five EU countries are used to analyze the imperviousness distribution and sewer network geometry. Consistent scale invariant features are retrieved for both (fractal dimensions can be defined), which enables to define a level of urbanization. Imperviousness representation in operational model is also found to exhibit scale-invariant features (even multifractality). The research was carried out as part of the UE INTERREG IV RainGain project.
Tanja de Boer-Euser, Laurène Bouaziz, Jan De Niel, Claudia Brauer, Benjamin Dewals, Gilles Drogue, Fabrizio Fenicia, Benjamin Grelier, Jiri Nossent, Fernando Pereira, Hubert Savenije, Guillaume Thirel, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 423–440,Short summary
In this study, the rainfall–runoff models of eight international research groups were compared for a set of subcatchments of the Meuse basin to investigate the influence of certain model components on the modelled discharge. Although the models showed similar performances based on general metrics, clear differences could be observed for specific events. The differences during drier conditions could indeed be linked to differences in model structures.
Hossein Tabari, Rozemien De Troch, Olivier Giot, Rafiq Hamdi, Piet Termonia, Sajjad Saeed, Erwan Brisson, Nicole Van Lipzig, and Patrick Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3843–3857,
Vincent Wolfs, Quan Tran Quoc, and Patrick Willems
Proc. IAHS, 373, 1–6,Short summary
Water management is constantly evolving. Trends, such as population growth, urbanization and climate change, pose new challenges to water management. We developed a new and flexible modelling approach to generate very fast models of catchment hydrology, rivers and sewer systems that can be tailored to numerous applications in water management. To illustrate the developed framework, a case study of integrated hydrological-hydraulic modelling for the Grote Nete catchment in Belgium is elaborated.
C. Onyutha and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not acceptedShort summary
To investigate the possible change in catchment behavior, which may interfere with the flow-rainfall relationship, three rainfall-runoff models were applied to the main catchments of the Nile Basin in Africa based on inputs covering the period from 1940 to 2003. There was close agreement between the changes in the observed and simulated overland flow from all the models. Thus, change in catchment behavior due to anthropogenic influence in the Nile basin over the selected time period was minimal.
L.-P. Wang, S. Ochoa-Rodríguez, C. Onof, and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 4001–4021,Short summary
A new methodology is proposed in this paper, focusing on improving the applicability of the operational weather radar data to urban hydrology with rain gauge data. The proposed methodology employed a simple yet effective technique to extract additional information (called local singularity structure) from radar data, which was generally ignored in related works. The associated improvement can be particularly seen in capturing storm peak magnitudes, which is critical for urban applications.
C. Onyutha and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2227–2246,Short summary
Variability of rainfall in the Nile Basin was found linked to the large-scale atmosphere-ocean interactions. This finding is vital for a number of water management and planning aspects. To give just one example, it may help in obtaining improved quantiles for flood or drought/water scarcity risk management. This is especially important under conditions of (1) questionable data quality, and (2) data scarcity. These conditions are typical of the Nile Basin and inevitably need to be addressed.
M. A. Sunyer, Y. Hundecha, D. Lawrence, H. Madsen, P. Willems, M. Martinkova, K. Vormoor, G. Bürger, M. Hanel, J. Kriaučiūnienė, A. Loukas, M. Osuch, and I. Yücel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1827–1847,
A. Ochoa, L. Pineda, P. Crespo, and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3179–3193,
D. Vrebos, T. Vansteenkiste, J. Staes, P. Willems, and P. Meire
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1119–1136,
D. E. Mora, L. Campozano, F. Cisneros, G. Wyseure, and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 631–648,
M. T. Taye and P. Willems
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not accepted
Related subject area
Hydrological HazardsComparison of estimated flood exposure and consequences generated by different event-based inland flood inundation mapsHow uncertain are precipitation and peak flow estimates for the July 2021 flooding event?Estimating the likelihood of roadway pluvial flood based on crowdsourced traffic data and depression-based DEM analysisA multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for urban flood depthMultiscale flood risk assessment under climate change: the case of the Miño River in the city of Ourense, SpainInteractions between precipitation, evapotranspiration and soil-moisture-based indices to characterize drought with high-resolution remote sensing and land-surface model dataRare flood scenarios for a rapidly growing high-mountain city: Pokhara, NepalA climate-conditioned catastrophe risk model for UK floodingBrief communication: Impact forecasting could substantially improve the emergency management of deadly floods: case study July 2021 floods in GermanyBrief communication: Western Europe flood in 2021 – mapping agriculture flood exposure from synthetic aperture radar (SAR)Comprehensive space–time hydrometeorological simulations for estimating very rare floods at multiple sites in a large river basinBare-earth DEM Generation from ArcticDEM, and Its Use in Flood SimulationA new index to quantify the extremeness of precipitation across scalesEffectiveness of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 for flood detection assessment in EuropeAssessing flood hazard changes using climate model forcingCharacterizing multivariate coastal flooding events in a semi-arid region: the implications of copula choice, sampling, and infrastructureDifferent drought types and the spatial variability in their hazard, impact, and propagation characteristicsMore than heavy rain turning into fast-flowing water – a landscape perspective on the 2021 Eifel floodsIntegrated drought risk assessment to support adaptive policymaking in the NetherlandsINSYDE-BE: adaptation of the INSYDE model to the Walloon region (Belgium)A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe. Part 1: Event description and analysisAssessing flooding impact to riverine bridges: an integrated analysisWarming of 0.5 °C may cause double the economic loss and increase the population affected by floods in ChinaFirst application of the Integrated Karst Aquifer Vulnerability (IKAV) method – potential and actual vulnerability in Yucatán, MexicoBrief communication: Seismological analysis of flood dynamics and hydrologically triggered earthquake swarms associated with Storm AlexSystem vulnerability to flood events and risk assessment of railway systems based on national and river basin scales in ChinaMachine-learning blends of geomorphic descriptors: value and limitations for flood hazard assessment across large floodplainsA performance-based approach to quantify atmospheric river flood riskEstimating soil moisture conditions for drought monitoring with random forests and a simple soil moisture accounting schemeA globally-applicable framework for compound flood hazard modelingExtreme-coastal-water-level estimation and projection: a comparison of statistical methodsSpatiotemporal evolution and meteorological triggering conditions of hydrological drought in the Hun River basin, NE ChinaThe Cambodian Mekong floodplain under future development plans and climate changeGeo-historical database of flood impacts in Alpine catchments (HIFAVa database, Arve River, France, 1850–2015)Compound flood modeling framework for surface–subsurface water interactionsAssessing tropical cyclone compound flood risk using hydrodynamic modelling: a case study in Haikou City, ChinaAn approach to identify the best climate models for the assessment of climate change impacts on meteorological and hydrological droughtsEvolution of multivariate drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in India under climate changeFlash flood warnings in context: combining local knowledge and large-scale hydro-meteorological patternsTemporal changes in rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for post-wildfire flash floods in southern CaliforniaCompound inland flood events: different pathways, different impacts and different coping optionsReview article: Factors leading to the occurrence of flood fatalities: a systematic review of research papers published between 2010 and 2020Modeling of a compound flood induced by the levee breach at Qianbujing Creek, Shanghai, during Typhoon FitowImproving flood damage assessments in data-scarce areas by retrieval of building characteristics through UAV image segmentation and machine learning – a case study of the 2019 floods in southern MalawiAssessment of direct economic losses of flood disasters based on spatial valuation of land use and quantification of vulnerabilities: a case study on the 2014 flood in Lishui city of ChinaEvaluating integrated water management strategies to inform hydrological drought mitigationGlobal riverine flood risk – how do hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps compare to flood hazard maps?Global flood exposure from different sized riversA paradigm of extreme rainfall pluvial floods in complex urban areas: the flood event of 15 July 2020 in Palermo (Italy)Space-time clustering of climate extremes amplify global climate impacts, leading to fat-tailed risk
Joseph L. Gutenson, Ahmad A. Tavakoly, Mohammad S. Islam, Oliver E. J. Wing, William P. Lehman, Chase O. Hamilton, Mark D. Wahl, and T. Christopher Massey
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 261–277,Short summary
Emergency managers use event-based flood inundation maps (FIMs) to plan and coordinate flood emergency response. We perform a case study test of three different FIM frameworks to see if FIM differences lead to substantial differences in the location and magnitude of flood exposure and consequences. We find that the FIMs are very different spatially and that the spatial differences do produce differences in the location and magnitude of exposure and consequences.
Mohamed Saadi, Carina Furusho-Percot, Alexandre Belleflamme, Ju-Yu Chen, Silke Trömel, and Stefan Kollet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 159–177,Short summary
On 14 July 2021, heavy rainfall fell over central Europe, causing considerable damage and human fatalities. We analyzed how accurate our estimates of rainfall and peak flow were for these flooding events in western Germany. We found that the rainfall estimates from radar measurements were improved by including polarimetric variables and their vertical gradients. Peak flow estimates were highly uncertain due to uncertainties in hydrological model parameters and rainfall measurements.
Arefeh Safaei-Moghadam, David Tarboton, and Barbara Minsker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1–19,Short summary
Climate change, urbanization, and aging infrastructure contribute to flooding on roadways. This study evaluates the potential for flood reports collected from Waze – a community-based navigation app – to predict these events. Waze reports correlate primarily with low-lying depressions on roads. Therefore, we developed two data-driven models to determine whether roadways will flood. Analysis showed that in the city of Dallas, drainage area and imperviousness are the most significant contributors.
Zongjia Zhang, Jun Liang, Yujue Zhou, Zhejun Huang, Jie Jiang, Junguo Liu, and Lili Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4139–4165,Short summary
An innovative multi-strategy-mode waterlogging-prediction framework for predicting waterlogging depth is proposed in the paper. The framework selects eight regression algorithms for comparison and tests the prediction accuracy and robustness of the model under different prediction strategies. Ultimately, the accuracy of predicting water depth after 30 min can exceed 86.1 %. This can aid decision-making in terms of issuing early warning information and determining emergency responses in advance.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Maite deCastro, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3957–3972,Short summary
A multiscale analysis, where the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX project were used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) that, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber+), was applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to Ourense city, in order to analyze future changes in flood hazard. Detailed flood maps indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of future floods, implying an increase in flood hazard in important areas of the city.
Jaime Gaona, Pere Quintana-Seguí, María José Escorihuela, Aaron Boone, and María Carmen Llasat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3461–3485,Short summary
Droughts represent a particularly complex natural hazard and require explorations of their multiple causes. Part of the complexity has roots in the interaction between the continuous changes in and deviation from normal conditions of the atmosphere and the land surface. The exchange between the atmospheric and surface conditions defines feedback towards dry or wet conditions. In semi-arid environments, energy seems to exceed water in its impact over the evolution of conditions, favoring drought.
Melanie Fischer, Jana Brettin, Sigrid Roessner, Ariane Walz, Monique Fort, and Oliver Korup
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3105–3123,Short summary
Nepal’s second-largest city has been rapidly growing since the 1970s, although its valley has been affected by rare, catastrophic floods in recent and historic times. We analyse potential impacts of such floods on urban areas and infrastructure by modelling 10 physically plausible flood scenarios along Pokhara’s main river. We find that hydraulic effects would largely affect a number of squatter settlements, which have expanded rapidly towards the river by a factor of up to 20 since 2008.
Paul D. Bates, James Savage, Oliver Wing, Niall Quinn, Christopher Sampson, Jeffrey Neal, and Andrew Smith
In this work we present and validate a new flood model for the UK that simulates pluvial, fluvial and coastal flooding. We show that previous UK flood losses based on government data and used in national climate change risk assessments are overestimated by a factor of ~3. These official estimates lie well outside our modelled loss distribution, which is plausibly centred on the observations.
Heiko Apel, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3005–3014,Short summary
The paper presents a fast 2D hydraulic simulation model for flood propagation that enables operational forecasts of spatially distributed inundation depths, flood extent, flow velocities, and other flood impacts. The detailed spatial forecast of floods and flood impacts is a large step forward from the currently operational forecasts of discharges at selected gauges, thus enabling a more targeted flood management and early warning.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2921–2927,Short summary
This study depicts the flood-affected areas in western Europe in July 2021 and particularly the agriculture land that was under flood inundation. The results indicate that the total inundated area over western Europe is about 1920 km2, of which 1320 km2 is in France. Around 64 % of the inundated area is agricultural land. We expect that the agricultural productivity in western Europe will have been severely impacted.
Daniel Viviroli, Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner, Guillaume Evin, Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Jérémy Chardon, Anne-Catherine Favre, Benoit Hingray, Gilles Nicolet, Damien Raynaud, Jan Seibert, Rolf Weingartner, and Calvin Whealton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2891–2920,Short summary
Estimating the magnitude of rare to very rare floods is a challenging task due to a lack of sufficiently long observations. The challenge is even greater in large river basins, where precipitation patterns and amounts differ considerably between individual events and floods from different parts of the basin coincide. We show that a hydrometeorological model chain can provide plausible estimates in this setting and can thus inform flood risk and safety assessments for critical infrastructure.
Yinxue Liu, Paul Bates, and Jeffery Neal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
In this paper, we test two approaches for removing buildings and other above-ground objects from a state-of-the-art satellite photogrammetry topography product, ArcticDEM. Our best technique gives a 70 % reduction in vertical error, with an average difference of 1.02 m from a benchmark LIDAR for the city of Helsinki in Finland. When used in a simulation of rainfall-driven flooding the bare-earth version of ArcticDEM yields a significant improvement in predicted inundation extent and water depth.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2791–2805,Short summary
To better understand how the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events (HPEs) will change with changing climate and to adapt disaster risk management accordingly, we have to quantify the extremeness of HPEs in a reliable way. We introduce the xWEI (cross-scale WEI) and show that this index can reveal important characteristics of HPEs that would otherwise remain hidden. We conclude that the xWEI could be a valuable instrument in both disaster risk management and research.
Angelica Tarpanelli, Alessandro C. Mondini, and Stefania Camici
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2473–2489,Short summary
We analysed 10 years of river discharge data from almost 2000 sites in Europe, and we extracted flood events, as proxies of flood inundations, based on the overpasses of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites to derive the percentage of potential inundation events that they were able to observe. Results show that on average 58 % of flood events are potentially observable by Sentinel-1 and only 28 % by Sentinel-2 due to the obstacle of cloud coverage.
David P. Callaghan and Michael G. Hughes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2459–2472,Short summary
A new method was developed to estimate changes in flood hazard under climate change. We use climate projections covering New South Wales, Australia, with two emission paths of business as usual and one with reduced emissions. We apply our method to the lower floodplain of the Gwydir Valley with changes in flood hazard provided over the next 90 years compared with the previous 50 years. We find that changes in flood hazard decrease over time within the Gwydir Valley floodplain.
Joseph T. D. Lucey and Timu W. Gallien
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2145–2167,Short summary
Coastal flooding can result from multiple flood drivers (e.g., tides, waves, river flows, rainfall) occurring at the same time. This study characterizes flooding events caused by high marine water levels and rain. Results show that wet-season coinciding sampling may better describe extreme flooding events in a dry, tidally dominated region. A joint-probability-based function is then used to estimate sea wall impacts on urban coastal flooding.
Erik Tijdeman, Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lucas Menzel, and Kerstin Stahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2099–2116,Short summary
We identified different drought types with typical hazard and impact characteristics. The summer drought type with compounding heat was most impactful. Regional drought propagation of this drought type exhibited typical characteristics that can guide drought management. However, we also found a large spatial variability that caused distinct differences among propagating drought signals. Accordingly, local multivariate drought information was needed to explain the full range of drought impacts.
Michael Dietze, Rainer Bell, Ugur Ozturk, Kristen L. Cook, Christoff Andermann, Alexander R. Beer, Bodo Damm, Ana Lucia, Felix S. Fauer, Katrin M. Nissen, Tobias Sieg, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856,Short summary
The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
Marjolein J. P. Mens, Gigi van Rhee, Femke Schasfoort, and Neeltje Kielen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1763–1776,Short summary
Many countries have to prepare for droughts by proposing policy actions to increase water supply, reduce water demand, or limit the societal impact. Societal cost–benefit analysis is required to support decision-making for a range of future scenarios, accounting for climate change and socio-economic developments. This paper presents a framework to assess drought policy actions based on quantification of drought risk and exemplifies it for the Netherlands’ drought risk management strategy.
Anna Rita Scorzini, Benjamin Dewals, Daniela Rodriguez Castro, Pierre Archambeau, and Daniela Molinari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1743–1761,Short summary
This study presents a replicable procedure for the adaptation of synthetic, multi-variable flood damage models among countries that may have different hazard and vulnerability features. The procedure is exemplified here for the case of adaptation to the Belgian context of a flood damage model, INSYDE, for the residential sector, originally developed for Italy. The study describes necessary changes in model assumptions and input parameters to properly represent the new context of implementation.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe natural disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examine the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. While Part 1 focuses on the description of the event, the second part puts the event in historical and climate change contexts.
Maria Pregnolato, Andrew O. Winter, Dakota Mascarenas, Andrew D. Sen, Paul Bates, and Michael R. Motley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1559–1576,Short summary
The interaction of flow, structure and network is complex, and yet to be fully understood. This study aims to establish rigorous practices of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) for modelling hydrodynamic forces on inundated bridges, and understanding the consequences of such impacts on the surrounding network. The objectives of this study are to model hydrodynamic forces as the demand on the bridge structure, to advance a structural reliability and network-level analysis.
Lulu Liu, Jiangbo Gao, and Shaohong Wu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1577–1590,Short summary
The impact of extreme events is increasing with global warming. Based on future scenario data and an improved quantitative assessment model of natural-disaster risk, this study analyses the spatial and temporal patterns of floods in China at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming, quantitatively assesses the socioeconomic risks posed by floods, and determines the integrated risk levels. Global warming of 1.5 °C can effectively reduce the population affected and the economic risks of floods.
Miguel Moreno-Gómez, Carolina Martínez-Salvador, Rudolf Liedl, Catalin Stefan, and Julia Pacheco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1591–1608,Short summary
Current vulnerability methods, as tools to protect groundwater resources from pollution, present some limitations and drawbacks: the roles of population and economic activities are not considered by such methods. The methodology presented in this work combines natural characteristics and human-driven conditions of a given region to improve the process of groundwater vulnerability analysis. Results indicate the reliability of this alternative method to improve groundwater protection strategies.
Małgorzata Chmiel, Maxime Godano, Marco Piantini, Pierre Brigode, Florent Gimbert, Maarten Bakker, Françoise Courboulex, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Diane Rivet, Anthony Sladen, David Ambrois, and Margot Chapuis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1541–1558,Short summary
On 2 October 2020, the French Maritime Alps were struck by an extreme rainfall event caused by Storm Alex. Here, we show that seismic data provide the timing and velocity of the propagation of flash-flood waves along the Vésubie River. We also detect 114 small local earthquakes triggered by the rainwater weight and/or its infiltration into the ground. This study paves the way for future works that can reveal further details of the impact of Storm Alex on the Earth’s surface and subsurface.
Weihua Zhu, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Philip J. Ward, and Elco E. Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1519–1540,Short summary
We present a simulation framework to analyse the system vulnerability and risk of the Chinese railway system to floods. To do so, we develop a method for generating flood events at both the national and river basin scale. Results show flood system vulnerability and risk of the railway system are spatially heterogeneous. The event-based approach shows how we can identify critical hotspots, taking the first steps in developing climate-resilient infrastructure.
Andrea Magnini, Michele Lombardi, Simone Persiano, Antonio Tirri, Francesco Lo Conti, and Attilio Castellarin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1469–1486,Short summary
We retrieve descriptors of the terrain morphology from a digital elevation model of a 105 km2 study area and blend them through decision tree models to map flood susceptibility and expected water depth. We investigate this approach with particular attention to (a) the comparison with a selected single-descriptor approach, (b) the goodness of decision trees, and (c) the performance of these models when applied to data-scarce regions. We find promising pathways for future research.
Corinne Bowers, Katherine A. Serafin, and Jack Baker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1371–1393,Short summary
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) cause significant flooding on the US west coast. We present a new Performance-based Atmospheric River Risk Analysis (PARRA) framework that connects models of atmospheric forcings, hydrologic impacts, and economic consequences to better estimate losses from AR-induced river flooding. We apply the PARRA framework to a case study in Sonoma County, CA, USA, and show that the framework can quantify the potential benefit of flood mitigation actions such as home elevation.
Yves Tramblay and Pere Quintana Seguí
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1325–1334,Short summary
Monitoring soil moisture is important during droughts, but very few measurements are available. Consequently, land-surface models are essential tools for reproducing soil moisture dynamics. In this study, a hybrid approach allowed for regionalizing soil water content using a machine learning method. This approach proved to be efficient, compared to the use of soil property maps, to run a simple soil moisture accounting model, and therefore it can be applied in various regions.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
In coastal deltas flooding can occur from interactions between surge and waves, river discharge and precipitation, so-called compound flooding. Global flood models however ignore these interaction. We therefore present a framework to create a reproducible compound flood model anywhere at the globe and show how it can be used to better understand compound flooding. The framework is applied to two historical events tropical cyclone events in Mozambique with good results.
Maria Francesca Caruso and Marco Marani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1109–1128,Short summary
We comparatively evaluate the predictive performance of traditional and new approaches to estimate the probability distributions of extreme coastal water levels. The metastatistical approach maximizes the use of observational information and provides reliable estimates of high quantiles with respect to traditional methods. Leveraging the increased estimation accuracy afforded by this approach, we investigate future changes in the frequency of extreme total water levels.
Shupeng Yue, Xiaodan Sheng, and Fengtian Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 995–1014,Short summary
To develop drought assessment and early warning systems, it is necessary to explore the characteristics of drought and its propagation process. In this article, a generalized and efficient drought research framework is studied and verified. It includes the evaluation of the spatiotemporal evolution, the construction of the return period calculation model, and the quantitative analysis of the meteorological trigger conditions of drought based on an improved Bayesian network model.
Alexander J. Horton, Nguyen V. K. Triet, Long P. Hoang, Sokchhay Heng, Panha Hok, Sarit Chung, Jorma Koponen, and Matti Kummu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 967–983,Short summary
We studied the cumulative impact of future development and climate change scenarios on discharge and floods in the Cambodian Mekong floodplain. We found that hydropower impacts dominate, acting in opposition to climate change impacts to drastically increase dry season flows and reduce wet season flows even when considering the higher RCP8.5 level. The consequent reduction in flood extent and duration may reduce regional flood risk but may also have negative impacts on floodplain productivity.
Eva Boisson, Bruno Wilhelm, Emmanuel Garnier, Alain Mélo, Sandrine Anquetin, and Isabelle Ruin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 831–847,Short summary
We present the database of Historical Impacts of Floods in the Arve Valley (HIFAVa). It reports flood occurrences and impacts (1850–2015) in a French Alpine catchment. Our results show an increasing occurrence of impacts from 1920 onwards, which is more likely related to indirect source effects and/or increasing exposure rather than hydrological changes. The analysis reveals that small mountain streams caused more impacts (67 %) than the main river.
Francisco Peña, Fernando Nardi, Assefa Melesse, Jayantha Obeysekera, Fabio Castelli, René M. Price, Todd Crowl, and Noemi Gonzalez-Ramirez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 775–793,Short summary
Groundwater-induced flooding, a rare phenomenon that is increasing in low-elevation coastal cities due to higher water tables, is often neglected in flood risk mapping due to its sporadic frequency and considerably lower severity with respect to other flood hazards. A loosely coupled flood model is used to simulate the interplay between surface and subsurface flooding mechanisms simultaneously. This work opens new horizons on the development of compound flood models from a holistic perspective.
Qing Liu, Hanqing Xu, and Jun Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 665–675,Short summary
The coastal area is a major floodplain in compound flood events in coastal cities, primarily due to storm tide, with the inundation severity positively correlated with the height of the storm tide. Simply accumulating every single-driven flood hazard (rainstorm inundation and storm tide flooding) to define the compound flood hazard may cause underestimation. The assessment of tropical cyclone compound flood risk can provide vital insight for research on coastal flooding prevention.
Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara, Juan-de-Dios Gómez-Gómez, David Pulido-Velazquez, and Eulogio Pardo-Igúzquiza
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 599–616,Short summary
This work studies the benefit of using more reliable local climate scenarios to analyse hydrological impacts. It has been applied in the Cenajo basin (south-eastern Spain), where we showed that the best approximations of the historical meteorology also provide the best approximations of the hydrology. The two selected climate models predict worrying changes in precipitation, temperature, streamflows and meteorological and hydrological droughts for the period 2071–2100 under the RCP8.5.
Venkataswamy Sahana and Arpita Mondal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
In an agriculture-dependent, densely-populated country such as India, drought risk projection is important to assess future water security. This study presents the first comprehensive drought risk assessment over India, integrating hazard and vulnerability information. Future drought risk is found to be more significantly driven by increased vulnerability resulting from societal developments rather than climate-induced changes in hazard. These findings can inform planning for drought resilience.
Agathe Bucherie, Micha Werner, Marc van den Homberg, and Simon Tembo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 461–480,Short summary
Local communities in northern Malawi have well-developed knowledge of the conditions leading to flash floods, spatially and temporally. Scientific analysis of catchment geomorphology and global reanalysis datasets corroborates this local knowledge, underlining the potential of these large-scale scientific datasets. Combining local knowledge with contemporary scientific datasets provides a common understanding of flash flood events, contributing to a more people-centred warning to flash floods.
Tao Liu, Luke A. McGuire, Nina Oakley, and Forest Cannon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 361–376,Short summary
A well-constrained rainfall-runoff model forced by radar-derived precipitation is used to define rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds for flash floods. The rainfall ID doubles in 5 years after a severe wildfire in a watershed in southern California, USA. Rainfall ID performs stably well for intense pulses of rainfall over durations of 30-60 minutes that cover at least 15%-25% of the watershed. This finding could help issuing flash flood warnings based on radar-derived precipitation.
Annegret H. Thieken, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Heidi Kreibich, and Meike Müller
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 165–185,Short summary
Various floods hit Germany recently. While there was a river flood with some dike breaches in 2013, flooding in 2016 resulted directly from heavy rainfall, causing overflowing drainage systems in urban areas and destructive flash floods in steep catchments. Based on survey data, we analysed how residents coped with these different floods. We observed significantly different flood impacts, warnings, behaviour and recovery, offering entry points for tailored risk communication and support.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 71–83,Short summary
This systematic review highlights flood mortality factors and the strategies to mitigate them, as obtained from 44 scientific articles published between 2010 and 2020. The findings are the classification of flood mortality drivers in two groups and the identification of strategies to cope with them. Future studies should fill the data gaps regarding flood fatalities in developing countries and information on people who have survived floods, which can be useful in educational campaigns.
Yuhan Yang, Jie Yin, Weiguo Zhang, Yan Zhang, Yi Lu, Yufan Liu, Aoyue Xiao, Yunxiao Wang, and Wenming Song
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3563–3572,Short summary
This is the first time the compound flooding process of heavy rain and levee-breach-induced flooding has been modeled. Real-life cases of historical flooding events have been adequately investigated. Our results provide a comprehensive view of the spatial patterns of the flood evolution, the dynamic process, and mechanism of these cases, which can help decision makers to develop effective emergency response plans and flood adaptation strategies.
Lucas Wouters, Anaïs Couasnon, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Hans de Moel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3199–3218,Short summary
This research introduces a novel approach to estimate flood damage in Malawi by applying a machine learning model to UAV imagery. We think that the development of such a model is an essential step to enable the swift allocation of resources for recovery by humanitarian decision-makers. By comparing this method (EUR 10 140) to a conventional land-use-based approach (EUR 15 782) for a specific flood event, recommendations are made for future assessments.
Haixia Zhang, Weihua Fang, Hua Zhang, and Lu Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3161–3174,Short summary
Taking a single flood disaster in Lishui city as an example, a rapid and refined assessment of economic loss is studied and verified, which can effectively simulate the distribution of loss ratio and loss value. It includes the construction of land use type and value based on data fusion and an expert questionnaire survey, the fitting and calibration of vulnerability curves based on an existing database and disaster loss reporting, and estimation of loss ratio and loss value by spatial analysis.
Doris E. Wendt, John P. Bloomfield, Anne F. Van Loon, Margaret Garcia, Benedikt Heudorfer, Joshua Larsen, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3113–3139,Short summary
Managing water demand and supply during droughts is complex, as highly pressured human–water systems can overuse water sources to maintain water supply. We evaluated the impact of drought policies on water resources using a socio-hydrological model. For a range of hydrogeological conditions, we found that integrated drought policies reduce baseflow and groundwater droughts most if extra surface water is imported, reducing the pressure on water resources during droughts.
Sara Lindersson, Luigia Brandimarte, Johanna Mård, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2921–2948,Short summary
Riverine flood risk assessments require the identification of areas prone to potential flooding. We find that (topography-based) hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps can in many cases be useful for riverine flood risk assessments, particularly where hydrologic data are scarce. For 26 countries across the global south, we also demonstrate how dataset choice influences the estimated number of people living within flood-prone zones.
Mark V. Bernhofen, Mark A. Trigg, P. Andrew Sleigh, Christopher C. Sampson, and Andrew M. Smith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2829–2847,Short summary
The use of different global datasets to calculate flood exposure can lead to differences in global flood exposure estimates. In this study, we use three global population datasets and a simple measure of a river’s flood susceptibility (based on the terrain alone) to explore how the choice of population data and the size of river represented in global flood models affect global and national flood exposure estimates.
Antonio Francipane, Dario Pumo, Marco Sinagra, Goffredo La Loggia, and Leonardo Valerio Noto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2563–2580,Short summary
In the last few years, some cities in the Mediterranean area have witnessed an increase in extreme rainfall events such as urban floods. The study focuses on a particularly intense urban flood that occurred in Palermo on 15 July 2020, which highlighted the need for a shift in the way stormwater in urban settlements is managed. We think that the framework used to study the impacts of the event and some conclusive remarks could be easily transferred to other urban contexts.
Luc Bonnafous and Upmanu Lall
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2277–2284,Short summary
Extreme climate events can cause human and economic catastrophe at the global scale. For specific sectors, such as humanitarian aid or insurance, being able to understand how (i.e., with which frequency and intensity) these events can occur simultaneously at different locations or several times in a given amount of time and hit critical assets is all-important to design contingency plans. Here we develop an indicator to study co-occurence in space and time of wet and dry extremes.
AGIV: Bodembedekkingskaart (BBK), 5m resolutie, opname 2012, AGIV [data set], available at: http://www.geopunt.be/catalogus/datasetfolder/cbd76a37-027a-48ed-a5fe-012d5f6db55b (last access: 26 October 2020), 2016.
AGIV: Grootschalig Referentiebestand (GRBgis), AGIV [data set], available at: http://www.geopunt.be/catalogus/datasetfolder/7c823055-7bbf-4d62-b55e-f85c30d53162 (last access: 26 October 2020), 2020.
AGIV and NGI: Wegenregister, 17/09/2020, AGIV [data set], available at: http://www.geopunt.be/catalogus/datasetfolder/b8007407-21ea-46f7-ab2c-3736e9f7fb27 (last access: 26 October 2020), 2020.
AGIV and VMM: Recent overstroomde gebieden, AGIV [data set], available at: http://www.geopunt.be/catalogus/datasetfolder/6BC263EB-F4DF-4B16-963B-840CD2EFAACF (last access: 26 October 2020), 2017.
AGIV, VMM, and Watlab: DHM-Vlaanderen, raster, 5 m, AGIV [data set], available at: http://www.geopunt.be/catalogus/datasetfolder/B5C62D89-A0C4-4228-B359-6FCAB7020C50 (last access: 13 February 2020), 2006.
Attems, M., Thaler, T., Genovese, E., and Fuchs, S.: Implementation of property-level flood risk adaptation (PLFRA) measures: Choices and decisions, WIREs Water, 7, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1404, 2020.
Barredo, J. I.: Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970–2006, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 97–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-97-2009, 2009.
Beullens, J., Broidioi, S., De Sutter, R., De Maeyer, P., Verwaest, T., and Mostaert, F.: Ontwikkeling LATIS 4 Deelrapport bis: Actualisatie basiskaarten en schadewaarden, Versie 3.0, WL Rapporten, 13_159_7, 2017.
Bingner, R. L., Theurer, F. D., Yuan, Y., and Taguas, E. V.: AnnAGNPS Technical Process, Version 5.5, available at: https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/wntsc/H&H/AGNPS/downloads/AnnAGNPS_Technical_Documentation.pdf (last access: 5 February 2022), 2018.
Bouwer, L. M.: Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change?, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 39–46, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS3092.1, 2011.
Bronstert, A., Niehoff, D., and Bürger, G.: Effects of climate and land-use change on storm runoff generation: Present knowledge and modelling capabilities, Hydrol. Process., 16, 509–529, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.326, 2002.
Bubeck, P., de Moel, H., Bouwer, L. M., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: How reliable are projections of future flood damage?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3293–3306, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-3293-2011, 2011.
Chow, V. T., Maidment, D. R., and Mays, L. W.: Applied Hydrology, edited by: Clark, B. J. and Morriss, J., McGraw-Hill, 539 pp., ISBN 0-07-010810-2, 1988.
Dalemans, F., Jacxsens, P., Van Orshoven, J., Kint, V., Moonen, P., and Muys, B.: Assisting sustainable forest management and forest policy planning with the sim4tree decision support system, Forests, 6, 859–878, https://doi.org/10.3390/f6040859, 2015.
Davids, P. R. and Thaler, T.: Flood-resilient communities: How we can encourage adaptive behaviour through smart tools in public–private interaction, Urban Plan., 6, 272–282, https://doi.org/10.17645/up.v6i3.4246, 2021.
Deckers, P., Kellens, W., Reyns, J., Vanneuville, W., and De Maeyer, P.: A GIS for Flood Risk Management in Flanders, in: Geospatial Techniques in Urban Hazard and Disaster Analysis, edited by: Showalter, P. and Lu, Y., Springer, 51–69, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2238-7, 2009.
de Moel, H. and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Effect of uncertainty in land use, damage models and inundation depth on flood damage estimates, Nat. Hazards, 58, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9675-6, 2011.
de Moel, H., van Alphen, J., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Flood maps in Europe – methods, availability and use, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 289–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-289-2009, 2009.
de Moel, H., van Vliet, M., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Evaluating the effect of flood damage-reducing measures: A case study of the unembanked area of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, Reg. Environ. Chang., 14, 895–908, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0420-z, 2014.
de Moel, H., Jongman, B., Kreibich, H., Merz, B., Penning-Rowsell, E., and Ward, P. J.: Flood risk assessments at different spatial scales, Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Chang., 20, 865–890, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-015-9654-z, 2015.
Departement Ruimte Vlaanderen: Witboek Beleidsplan Ruimte Vlaanderen, Brussel, available at: https://publicaties.vlaanderen.be/view-file/23474 (last access: 5 February 2022), 2017.
Directive 2007/60/EC: The assessment and management of flood risks, available at: http://data.europa.eu/eli/dir/2007/60/oj (last access: 18 April 2021), 2007.
EEA: EEA Technical report 12/2015: Exploring nature-based solutions: The role of green infrastructure in mitigating the impacts of weather- and climate change-related natural hazards, European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 2015.
EEA: EEA Report 15/2017: Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Europe: Enhancing coherence of the knowledge base, policies and practices, European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, 2017.
EEA: Economic losses from climate-related extremes in Europe, available at: https://www.eea.europa.eu/ims/economic-losses-from-climate-related (last access: 22 December 2021), 2021.
Federatie van het Notariaat: Notarisbarometer: Landbouwgronden, available at: https://www.notaris.be/nieuws-pers/detail/hoeveel-kost-een-landbouwgrond-in-ons-land-ontdek-onze-notarisbarometer (last access: 5 February 2022), 2019.
Gabriels, K., Willems, P., and Van Orshoven, J.: Performance evaluation of spatially distributed, CN-based rainfall-runoff model configurations for implementation in spatial land use optimization analyses, J. Hydrol., 602, 126872, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126872, 2021.
Gabriels, K., Willems, P., and Van Orshoven, J.: An iterative runoff propagation approach to identify priority locations for land cover change minimizing downstream river flood hazard, Landsc. Urban Plan., 218, 104262, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2021.104262, 2022.
Gerl, T., Kreibich, H., Franco, G., Marechal, D., and Schröter, K.: A review of flood loss models as basis for harmonization and benchmarking, PLoS One, 11, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0159791, 2016.
Grommen, S.: Akkoord over betonstop krijgt forse kritiek van oppositie en experten: “Onbetaalbaar en dus onuitvoerbaar,” VRT NWS, 16 December, available at: https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020/12/16/debat-bouwshift-betonstop/ (last access: 22 December 2020), 2020.
Grossi, P. and Kunreuther, H.: Catastrophe modeling: A new approach to managing risk, Springer, Boston, MA, 256 pp., o eBook ISBN 0-387-23129-3, 2005.
Hall, J. W., Sayers, P. B., and Dawson, R. J.: National-scale assessment of current and future flood risk in England and Wales, Nat. Hazards, 36, 147–164, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-004-4546-7, 2005.
IPCC: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R. K., and Meyer, L. A., IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp., ISBN 978-92-9169-143-2, 2014.
Joseph, R., Proverbs, D., and Lamond, J.: Homeowners' perceptions of property-level flood risk adaptation (PLFRA) measures: The case of the summer 2007 flood event in England, Int. J. Saf. Secur. Eng., 5, 251–265, https://doi.org/10.2495/SAFE-V5-N3-251-265, 2015.
Kellens, W., Vanneuville, W., Verfaillie, E., Meire, E., Deckers, P., and De Maeyer, P.: Flood Risk Management in Flanders: Past Developments and Future Challenges, Water Resour. Manag., 27, 3585–3606, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0366-4, 2013.
Klijn, F., Baan, P., de Bruijn, K., and Kwadijk, J.: Overstromingsrisico's in Nederland in een veranderend klimaat: Verwachtingen, schattingen en berekeningen voor het project Nederland Later, Report number Q4290, 165, 2007.
Koks, E. E., de Moel, H., Aerts, J. C. J. H., and Bouwer, L. M.: Effect of spatial adaptation measures on flood risk: Study of coastal floods in Belgium, Reg. Environ. Chang., 14, 413–425, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0514-7, 2014.
Lin, Y. P., Hong, N. M., Wu, P. J., Wu, C. F., and Verburg, P. H.: Impacts of land use change scenarios on hydrology and land use patterns in the Wu-Tu watershed in Northern Taiwan, Landsc. Urban Plan., 80, 111–126, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2006.06.007, 2007.
Mediero, L., Jiménez-Álvarez, A., and Garrote, L.: Design flood hydrographs from the relationship between flood peak and volume, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2495–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2495-2010, 2010.
Merz, B., Kreibich, H., Schwarze, R., and Thieken, A.: Review article “Assessment of economic flood damage”, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 1697–1724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1697-2010, 2010.
Messner, F. and Meyer, V.: Flood Damage, Vulnerability and Risk Perception – Challenges for Flood Damage Research, in: Flood Risk Management: Hazards, Vulnerability and Mitigation Measures, edited by: Schanze, J., Zeman, E., and Marsalek, J., pp. 149–167, Springer, ISBN 13 978-1-4020-4598-1 (e-book), ISBN 10 1-4020-4598-0 (e-book), 2006.
Miller, J. D., Kim, H., Kjeldsen, T. R., Packman, J., Grebby, S., and Dearden, R.: Assessing the impact of urbanization on storm runoff in a peri-urban catchment using historical change in impervious cover, J. Hydrol., 515, 59–70, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.04.011, 2014.
Mohor, G. S., Thieken, A. H., and Korup, O.: Residential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel models, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1599–1614, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021, 2021.
Morris, J. and Brewin, P.: The impact of seasonal flooding on agriculture: the spring 2012 floods in Somerset, England, J. Flood Risk Manag., 7, 128–140, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12041, 2014.
Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V: River Flow Forecasting Through Conceptual Models: Part I – A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, 1970.
Neitsch, S. L., Arnold, J. G., Kiniry, J. R., and Williams, J. R.: Soil and Water Assessment Tool: Theoretical Documentation, Version 2009, 647, 2011.
Peel, M. C.: Hydrology: Catchment vegetation and runoff, Prog. Phys. Geogr., 33, 837–844, https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133309350122, 2009.
Penning-rowsell, E., Johnson, C., Tunstall, S., Tapsell, S., Morris, J., Chatterton, J., and Green, C.: The Benefits of Flood and Coastal Risk Management: A Handbook of Assessment Techniques, Middlesex University Press, 89 pp., ISBN 1-904750-51-6, 2005.
Poelmans, L., Rompaey, A. Van, Ntegeka, V., and Willems, P.: The relative impact of climate change and urban expansion on peak flows: a case study in central Belgium, Hydrol. Process., 25, 2846–2858, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8047, 2011.
Sayers, P., Galloway, G., Penning-rowsell, E., Yuanyuan, L., Yiwei, C., Kang, W., Quesne, T. Le, Wang, L., Guan, Y., Sayers, P., Galloway, G., Penning-rowsell, E., and Yuanyuan, L.: Strategic flood management: ten `golden rules' to guide a sound approach, Int. J. River Basin Manag., 13, 137–151, https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2014.902378, 2015.
SEPA: Natural Flood Management Handbook, edited by: Forbes, H., Ball, K., and McLay, F., Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), ISBN 978-0-85759-024-4, 2016.
Statbel: Statistiek van de verkopen van gebouwen: aantal en verkoopprijs per datum, oppervlakte en type gebouw, available at: https://bestat.statbel.fgov.be/bestat/crosstable.xhtml?view=0859950c-50e4-4e39-acde-bc48f47215a5 (last access: 26 October 2020), 2019.
Sutmöller, J., Hentschel, S., Hansen, J., and Meesenburg, H.: Coupled forest growth-hydrology modelling as an instrument for the assessment of effects of forest management on hydrology in forested catchments, Adv. Geosci., 27, 149–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-27-149-2011, 2011.
Teng, J., Vaze, J., Dutta, D., and Marvanek, S.: Rapid Inundation Modelling in Large Floodplains Using LiDAR DEM, Water Resour. Manag., 29, 2619–2636, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-0960-8, 2015.
Van Den Broeck, S.: Een bos aanplanten. Hoeveel moet dat kosten?, available at: https://www.gemeentevoordetoekomst.be/artikel/een-bos-aanplanten-hoeveel-moet-dat-kosten (last access: 16 November 2020), 2019.
Vanneuville, W., De Maeyer, P., Maeghe, K., and Mostaert, F.: Model of the effects of a flood in the dender catchment, based on a risk methodology, in Bulletin of the Society of Cartographers, vol. 37, pp. 59–64, 2003.
Vanneuville, W., Maddens, R., Collard, C., Bogaert, P., De Maeyer, P., and Antrop, M.: Impact op mens en economie t.g.v. overstromingen bekeken in het licht van wijzigende hydraulische condities, omgevingsfactoren en klimatologische omstandigheden, 120, 2006.
Van Opstal, M., Tits, M., Beckers, V., Elsen, A., Van Overtveld, K., Batelaan, O., Van Orshoven, J., Bries, J., Vandendriessche, H., and Diels, J.: Vernieuwde kwantificering van de verliezen van N en P vanuit de landbouw naar het oppervlaktewater, Eindrapport, mei 2014, 2014.
Van Orshoven, J.: Van nature overstroombare en recent overstroomde gebieden in Vlaanderen., in Proceedings of the Study Day on “Space for Water, The Best Insurance Against Flooding”, pp. 1–22, AMINAL and KBC-Insurance, Brussels, Belgium, 2001.
VLAIO and AGIV: Bedrijventerreinen, Toestand 30/09/2020, VLAIO and AGIV [data set], available at: https://www.geopunt.be/catalogus/datasetfolder/05ae7c3d-0abc-4a45-a35a-d937747b445d (last access: 5 February 2022), 2020.
VMM: De voorlopige OverstromingsRisicoBeoordeling in Vlaanderen, report, Vlaamse Milieumaatschappij (VMM), available at: https://www.vmm.be/publicaties/de-voorlopige-overstromingsrisicobeoordeling-in-vlaanderen (last access: 5 February 2022), 2018.
VMM: Actieplan Droogte en Wateroverlast 2019–2021, 69, report, Vlaamse Milieumaatschappij (VMM), available at: https://www.vmm.be/water/droogte/actieplan-droogte-en-wateroverlast (last access: 5 February 2022), 2019.
VMM Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium, Agentschap MDK, and De Vlaamse Waterweg nv: Waterinfo.be, available at: https://www.waterinfo.be/ (last access: 26 October 2021), 2020.
Ward, P. J., de Moel, H., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 3181–3195, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-3181-2011, 2011.
Yeo, I.-Y. and Guldmann, J.-M.: Global spatial optimization with hydrological systems simulation: application to land-use allocation and peak runoff minimization, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 325–338, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-325-2010, 2010.
As land use influences hydrological processes (e.g., forests have a high water retention and infiltration capacity), it also impacts floods downstream in the river system. This paper demonstrates an approach quantifying the impact of land use changes on economic flood damages: damages in an initial situation are quantified and compared to damages of simulated floods associated with a land use change scenario. This approach can be used as an explorative tool in sustainable flood risk management.
As land use influences hydrological processes (e.g., forests have a high water retention and...