Geologic and geodetic constraints on the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes along Malawi's active faults: the Malawi Seismogenic Source Model (MSSM)

Williams, Jack N.; Wedmore, Luke N. J.; Fagereng, Åke; Werner, Maximilian J.; Mdala, Hassan; Shillington, Donna J.; Scholz, Christopher A.; Kolawole, Folarin; Wright, Lachlan J. M.; Biggs, Juliet; Dulanya, Zuze; Mphepo, Felix; Chindandali, Patrick

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022

Articles | Volume 22, issue 11

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Articles | Volume 22, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3607-2022

Articles | Volume 22, issue 11

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Research article

07 Nov 2022

Research article |

| 07 Nov 2022

Geologic and geodetic constraints on the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes along Malawi's active faults: the Malawi Seismogenic Source Model (MSSM)

Jack N. Williams, Luke N. J. Wedmore, Åke Fagereng, Maximilian J. Werner, Hassan Mdala, Donna J. Shillington, Christopher A. Scholz, Folarin Kolawole, Lachlan J. M. Wright, Juliet Biggs, Zuze Dulanya, Felix Mphepo, and Patrick Chindandali

Jack N. Williams

CORRESPONDING AUTHOR

jack.williams@otago.ac.nz

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6669-308X

School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK

School of Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK

now at: Department of Geology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand

Luke N. J. Wedmore

School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK

Åke Fagereng

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6335-8534

School of Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK

Maximilian J. Werner

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2430-2631

School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK

Hassan Mdala

Geological Survey Department, Mzuzu Regional Office, Mzuzu, Malawi

Donna J. Shillington

School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA

Christopher A. Scholz

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Syracuse University, Syracuse, New York, USA

Folarin Kolawole

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5695-2778

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA

Lachlan J. M. Wright

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Syracuse University, Syracuse, New York, USA

Juliet Biggs

School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK

Zuze Dulanya

Geography and Earth Sciences Department, University of Malawi, Zomba, Malawi

Felix Mphepo

Geological Survey Department, Mzuzu Regional Office, Mzuzu, Malawi

Patrick Chindandali

Geological Survey Department, Zomba, Malawi

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Total article views: 2,745 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	BibTeX	EndNote
1,896	777	72	2,745	68	52

HTML: 1,896
PDF: 777
XML: 72
Total: 2,745
BibTeX: 68
EndNote: 52

Views and downloads (calculated since 16 Nov 2021)

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 16 Nov 2021)

Total article views: 1,703 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	BibTeX	EndNote
1,306	349	48	1,703	53	43

HTML: 1,306
PDF: 349
XML: 48
Total: 1,703
BibTeX: 53
EndNote: 43

Views and downloads (calculated since 07 Nov 2022)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Nov 2022	382	48	4	434
Dec 2022	72	14	1	87
Jan 2023	31	10	0	41
Feb 2023	28	14	1	43
Mar 2023	42	24	2	68
Apr 2023	16	5	0	21
May 2023	24	20	4	48
Jun 2023	25	7	0	32
Jul 2023	28	12	1	41
Aug 2023	31	12	2	45
Sep 2023	33	8	0	41
Oct 2023	20	15	1	36
Nov 2023	10	5	0	15
Dec 2023	29	10	1	40
Jan 2024	42	5	0	47
Feb 2024	25	6	4	35
Mar 2024	31	18	0	49
Apr 2024	42	5	3	50
May 2024	57	6	4	67
Jun 2024	79	9	2	90
Jul 2024	43	5	4	52
Aug 2024	25	8	3	36
Sep 2024	17	6	3	26
Oct 2024	26	15	1	42
Nov 2024	17	2	0	19
Dec 2024	16	12	0	28
Jan 2025	41	22	2	65
Feb 2025	39	10	4	53
Mar 2025	33	13	1	47
Apr 2025	2	3	0	5

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 07 Nov 2022)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Nov 2022	382	48	4	434
Dec 2022	72	14	1	87
Jan 2023	31	10	0	41
Feb 2023	28	14	1	43
Mar 2023	42	24	2	68
Apr 2023	16	5	0	21
May 2023	24	20	4	48
Jun 2023	25	7	0	32
Jul 2023	28	12	1	41
Aug 2023	31	12	2	45
Sep 2023	33	8	0	41
Oct 2023	20	15	1	36
Nov 2023	10	5	0	15
Dec 2023	29	10	1	40
Jan 2024	42	5	0	47
Feb 2024	25	6	4	35
Mar 2024	31	18	0	49
Apr 2024	42	5	3	50
May 2024	57	6	4	67
Jun 2024	79	9	2	90
Jul 2024	43	5	4	52
Aug 2024	25	8	3	36
Sep 2024	17	6	3	26
Oct 2024	26	15	1	42
Nov 2024	17	2	0	19
Dec 2024	16	12	0	28
Jan 2025	41	22	2	65
Feb 2025	39	10	4	53
Mar 2025	33	13	1	47
Apr 2025	2	3	0	5

Total article views: 1,042 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	BibTeX	EndNote
590	428	24	1,042	15	9

HTML: 590
PDF: 428
XML: 24
Total: 1,042
BibTeX: 15
EndNote: 9

Views and downloads (calculated since 16 Nov 2021)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Nov 2022	382	48	4	434
Dec 2022	72	14	1	87
Jan 2023	31	10	0	41
Feb 2023	28	14	1	43
Mar 2023	42	24	2	68
Apr 2023	16	5	0	21
May 2023	24	20	4	48
Jun 2023	25	7	0	32
Jul 2023	28	12	1	41
Aug 2023	31	12	2	45
Sep 2023	33	8	0	41
Oct 2023	20	15	1	36
Nov 2023	10	5	0	15
Dec 2023	29	10	1	40
Jan 2024	42	5	0	47
Feb 2024	25	6	4	35
Mar 2024	31	18	0	49
Apr 2024	42	5	3	50
May 2024	57	6	4	67
Jun 2024	79	9	2	90
Jul 2024	43	5	4	52
Aug 2024	25	8	3	36
Sep 2024	17	6	3	26
Oct 2024	26	15	1	42
Nov 2024	17	2	0	19
Dec 2024	16	12	0	28
Jan 2025	41	22	2	65
Feb 2025	39	10	4	53
Mar 2025	33	13	1	47
Apr 2025	2	3	0	5

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 16 Nov 2021)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Nov 2022	382	48	4	434
Dec 2022	72	14	1	87
Jan 2023	31	10	0	41
Feb 2023	28	14	1	43
Mar 2023	42	24	2	68
Apr 2023	16	5	0	21
May 2023	24	20	4	48
Jun 2023	25	7	0	32
Jul 2023	28	12	1	41
Aug 2023	31	12	2	45
Sep 2023	33	8	0	41
Oct 2023	20	15	1	36
Nov 2023	10	5	0	15
Dec 2023	29	10	1	40
Jan 2024	42	5	0	47
Feb 2024	25	6	4	35
Mar 2024	31	18	0	49
Apr 2024	42	5	3	50
May 2024	57	6	4	67
Jun 2024	79	9	2	90
Jul 2024	43	5	4	52
Aug 2024	25	8	3	36
Sep 2024	17	6	3	26
Oct 2024	26	15	1	42
Nov 2024	17	2	0	19
Dec 2024	16	12	0	28
Jan 2025	41	22	2	65
Feb 2025	39	10	4	53
Mar 2025	33	13	1	47
Apr 2025	2	3	0	5

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Show all Final revised paper only Preprint only

Total article views: 2,745 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 2,602 with geography defined and 143 with unknown origin.

Total article views: 1,703 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 1,627 with geography defined and 76 with unknown origin.

Total article views: 1,042 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 975 with geography defined and 67 with unknown origin.

Country	#	Views	%
United States of America	1	884	32
China	2	255	9
Germany	3	153	5
United Kingdom	4	146	5
Malawi	5	110	4

Country	#	Views	%
United States of America	1	526	30
China	2	209	12
Germany	3	86	5
Netherlands	4	67	3
United Kingdom	5	65	3

Country	#	Views	%
United States of America	1	358	34
United Kingdom	2	81	7
Germany	3	67	6
Malawi	4	59	5
China	5	46	4


Total:	0
HTML:	0
PDF:	0
XML:	0

884


Total:	0
HTML:	0
PDF:	0
XML:	0

526


Total:	0
HTML:	0
PDF:	0
XML:	0

358

Cited

Show all Final revised paper only Preprint only

10 citations as recorded by crossref.

Fault-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in regions with low strain rates and a thick seismogenic layer: a case study from Malawi J. Williams et al. 10.1093/gji/ggad060
Probabilistic seismic collapse risk assessment of non-engineered masonry buildings in Malawi K. Goda et al. 10.3389/fbuil.2024.1333576
Unified earthquake catalogue and mapping of Gutenberg–Richter parameters for the East African Rift System A. Letamo et al. 10.1186/s40677-023-00249-2
Evidence for large Holocene earthquakes along the Yangsan fault in the SE Korean Peninsula revealed in three-dimensional paleoseismic trenches S. Naik et al. 10.1130/B37275.1
(D)rifting in the 21st century: key processes, natural hazards, and geo-resources F. Zwaan et al. 10.5194/se-15-989-2024
Displacement/Length Scaling Relationships for Normal Faults; a Review, Critique, and Revised Compilation B. Lathrop et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.907543
The Malawi Active Fault Database: An Onshore‐Offshore Database for Regional Assessment of Seismic Hazard and Tectonic Evolution J. Williams et al. 10.1029/2022GC010425
The Luangwa Rift Active Fault Database and fault reactivation along the southwestern branch of the East African Rift L. Wedmore et al. 10.5194/se-13-1731-2022
Spatio‐Temporal Variations in Sediment Delivery as a Response to Rapid Quaternary Climate Change in the Lake Malawi Rift, East Africa L. Wright & C. Scholz 10.1029/2022JF007027
Heterogeneous Strain Distribution in the Malawi (Nyasa) Rift, East Africa: Implications for Rifting in Magma‐Poor, Multi‐Segment Rift Systems L. Wright et al. 10.1029/2022TC007486

5 citations as recorded by crossref.

Fault-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in regions with low strain rates and a thick seismogenic layer: a case study from Malawi J. Williams et al. 10.1093/gji/ggad060
Probabilistic seismic collapse risk assessment of non-engineered masonry buildings in Malawi K. Goda et al. 10.3389/fbuil.2024.1333576
Unified earthquake catalogue and mapping of Gutenberg–Richter parameters for the East African Rift System A. Letamo et al. 10.1186/s40677-023-00249-2
Evidence for large Holocene earthquakes along the Yangsan fault in the SE Korean Peninsula revealed in three-dimensional paleoseismic trenches S. Naik et al. 10.1130/B37275.1
(D)rifting in the 21st century: key processes, natural hazards, and geo-resources F. Zwaan et al. 10.5194/se-15-989-2024

5 citations as recorded by crossref.

Displacement/Length Scaling Relationships for Normal Faults; a Review, Critique, and Revised Compilation B. Lathrop et al. 10.3389/feart.2022.907543
The Malawi Active Fault Database: An Onshore‐Offshore Database for Regional Assessment of Seismic Hazard and Tectonic Evolution J. Williams et al. 10.1029/2022GC010425
The Luangwa Rift Active Fault Database and fault reactivation along the southwestern branch of the East African Rift L. Wedmore et al. 10.5194/se-13-1731-2022
Spatio‐Temporal Variations in Sediment Delivery as a Response to Rapid Quaternary Climate Change in the Lake Malawi Rift, East Africa L. Wright & C. Scholz 10.1029/2022JF007027
Heterogeneous Strain Distribution in the Malawi (Nyasa) Rift, East Africa: Implications for Rifting in Magma‐Poor, Multi‐Segment Rift Systems L. Wright et al. 10.1029/2022TC007486

Latest update: 04 Apr 2025

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Short summary

We use geologic and GPS data to constrain the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes that occur along active faults in Malawi. These faults slip in earthquakes as the tectonic plates on either side of the East African Rift in Malawi diverge. Low divergence rates (0.5–1.5 mm yr) and long faults (5–200 km) imply that earthquakes along these faults are rare (once every 1000–10 000 years) but could have high magnitudes (M 7–8). These data can be used to assess seismic risk in Malawi.

We use geologic and GPS data to constrain the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes that occur...

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