Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2703-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2703-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 8
Research article
 | 
23 Aug 2022
Research article |  | 23 Aug 2022

Forecasting vegetation condition with a Bayesian auto-regressive distributed lags (BARDL) model

Edward E. Salakpi, Peter D. Hurley, James M. Muthoka, Adam B. Barrett, Andrew Bowell, Seb Oliver, and Pedram Rowhani

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Short summary
The devastating effects of recurring drought conditions are mostly felt by pastoralists that rely on grass and shrubs as fodder for their animals. Using historical information from precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation health data, we developed a model that can forecast vegetation condition and the probability of drought occurrence up till a 10-week lead time with an accuracy of 74 %. Our model can be adopted by policymakers and relief agencies for drought early warning and early action.
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