Articles | Volume 22, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-265-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Feb 2022
Research article |
| 01 Feb 2022
| 01 Feb 2022
Cost–benefit analysis of coastal flood defence measures in the North Adriatic Sea
Mattia Amadio
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, Venice, Italy
Arthur H. Essenfelder
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, Venice, Italy
Stefano Bagli
Gecosistema, Rimini, Italy
Sepehr Marzi
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, Venice, Italy
Paolo Mazzoli
Gecosistema, Rimini, Italy
Jaroslav Mysiak
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, Venice, Italy
Stephen Roberts
Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscience Communication (GC).
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The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
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Climate model simulations are uncertain. In some cases this makes it difficult to know how to use them. Significance testing is often used to deal with this issue but has various shortcomings. We describe two alternative ways to manage uncertainty in climate model simulations that avoid these shortcomings. We test them on simulations of future rainfall over Europe and show they produce more accurate projections than either using unadjusted climate model output or statistical testing.
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Short summary
We estimate the risk associated with storm surge events at two case study locations along the North Adriatic Italian coast, considering sea level rise up to the year 2100, and perform a cost–benefit analysis of planned or proposed coastal renovation projects. The study uses nearshore hydrodynamic modelling. Our findings represent a useful indication for disaster risk management, helping to understand the importance of investing in adaptation and estimating the economic return on investments.
We estimate the risk associated with storm surge events at two case study locations along the...
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