On the correlation between a sub-level qualifier refining the danger level with observations and models relating to the contributing factors of avalanche danger

Techel, Frank; Mayer, Stephanie; Pérez-Guillén, Cristina; Schmudlach, Günter; Winkler, Kurt

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022

Articles | Volume 22, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1911-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 22, issue 6

Research article

|

09 Jun 2022

Research article |

| 09 Jun 2022

On the correlation between a sub-level qualifier refining the danger level with observations and models relating to the contributing factors of avalanche danger

Frank Techel, Stephanie Mayer, Cristina Pérez-Guillén, Günter Schmudlach, and Kurt Winkler

Data sets

Observational data: avalanche observations, danger signs and stability test results F. Techel https://doi.org/10.16904/envidat.329

Short summary

Can the resolution of forecasts of avalanche danger be increased by using a combination of absolute and comparative judgments? Using 5 years of Swiss avalanche forecasts, we show that, on average, sub-levels assigned to a danger level reflect the expected increase in the number of locations with poor snow stability and in the number and size of avalanches with increasing forecast sub-level.