A new view on the risk of typhoon occurrence  in the western North Pacific

Ng, Kelvin S.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-663-2021

Articles | Volume 21, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-663-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-663-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 21, issue 2

Research article

|

16 Feb 2021

Research article |

| 16 Feb 2021

A new view on the risk of typhoon occurrence in the western North Pacific

Kelvin S. Ng and Gregor C. Leckebusch

Data sets

Japanese 55-year Reanalysis, Daily 3-Hourly and 6-Hourly Data JMA https://doi.org/10.5065/D6HH6H41

ERA-Interim Project, Single Parameter 6-Hourly Surface Analysis and Surface Forecast Time Series ECMWF https://doi.org/10.5065/D64747WN

Short summary

Due to the rarity of high-impact tropical cyclones (TCs), it is difficult to achieve a robust TC hazard assessment based on historical observations only. Here we present an approach to construct a TC event set that contains more than 10 000 years of TC events by using a computationally simple and efficient method. This event set has similar characteristics as the historical observations but includes a better representation of intense TCs. Thus, a robust TC hazard assessment can be achieved.