Are Kenya Meteorological Department heavy  rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early  action and early preparedness for flooding?

MacLeod, David; Kilavi, Mary; Mwangi, Emmah; Ambani, Maurine; Osunga, Michael; Robbins, Joanne; Graham, Richard; Rowhani, Pedram; Todd, Martin C.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021

Articles | Volume 21, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 21, issue 1

Research article

|

25 Jan 2021

Research article |

| 25 Jan 2021

Are Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness for flooding?

David MacLeod, Mary Kilavi, Emmah Mwangi, Maurine Ambani, Michael Osunga, Joanne Robbins, Richard Graham, Pedram Rowhani, and Martin C. Todd

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Final revised paper (published on 25 Jan 2021)
Preprint (discussion started on 27 Apr 2020)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'Review of “Are Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness?”', Anonymous Referee #1, 01 Jul 2020
- AC1: 'Response to RC1 comments', David MacLeod, 26 Aug 2020
RC2: 'Reviewer 2', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Jul 2020
- AC2: 'Response to RC2 comments', David MacLeod, 26 Aug 2020

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (09 Sep 2020) by Joaquim G. Pinto

AR by David MacLeod on behalf of the Authors (16 Oct 2020) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (20 Oct 2020) by Joaquim G. Pinto

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (25 Oct 2020)

ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (26 Nov 2020) by Joaquim G. Pinto

AR by David MacLeod on behalf of the Authors (27 Nov 2020) Author's response Manuscript

Short summary

Forecasts of natural hazards save lives. But the accuracy of forecasts must be evaluated before use. Here we evaluate heavy rainfall advisories over Kenya. We assess their ability to anticipate heavy rainfall and show how well they warned of recent floods which had significant impacts. We find that although they effectively warn of heavy rainfall and flooding, issues such as a lack of spatial detail limit their utility for systematic approaches to preparedness.