Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Are Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness for flooding?
David MacLeod
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PU, UK
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
Mary Kilavi
Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), Nairobi 00100 GPO, Kenya
Emmah Mwangi
Kenya Red Cross Society, Nairobi 00100 GPO, Kenya
Maurine Ambani
Kenya Red Cross Society, Nairobi 00100 GPO, Kenya
Michael Osunga
Kenya Red Cross Society, Nairobi 00100 GPO, Kenya
Joanne Robbins
Met Office, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
Richard Graham
Met Office, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
Pedram Rowhani
Department of Geography, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QJ, UK
Martin C. Todd
Department of Geography, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QJ, UK
Data sets
Digitized heavy rainfall advisories 2015-2019 D. MacLeod, E. Mwangi, and M. Kilavi https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13553651.v1
Short summary
Forecasts of natural hazards save lives. But the accuracy of forecasts must be evaluated before use. Here we evaluate heavy rainfall advisories over Kenya. We assess their ability to anticipate heavy rainfall and show how well they warned of recent floods which had significant impacts. We find that although they effectively warn of heavy rainfall and flooding, issues such as a lack of spatial detail limit their utility for systematic approaches to preparedness.
Forecasts of natural hazards save lives. But the accuracy of forecasts must be evaluated before...
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